Welcome to Predirections
Future-focused writing on biodiversity, climate, and water — by Prof. Jonathan Tonkin.
What you’ll get from this newsletter
Timely, science-based insights into the intersecting challenges of biodiversity loss, climate change, and water management — and the solutions that matter most1.
As a working scientist, I write for readers who want more than the doom narrative. This newsletter is about understanding what’s coming — and acting on it.
You’ll get:
Fresh takes on key research and new policy directions
Behind-the-scenes stories from a solutions-focused research lab
Deep dives on biodiversity, climate, water, and how we adapt
Practical, global-to-local insights for people who care about the future
Occasional personal reflections as a father and scientist living these questions
🌱 It’s for the curious, the concerned, and the people trying to make a difference.
Predirections publishes weekly, alternating between two formats:
Long-form essays — deep dives on biodiversity, climate, water, and what environmental change means for the future. Written from 20 years at the frontier of ecological research. Always free.
Nexus Notes — curated signals from across the science and policy of biodiversity, climate, and water. Part reading list, part reflection. The free section is always open. Paid subscribers get the deeper section — where I go further than the signals: connecting the dots, going under the hood of the science, identifying what I think is likely to come next, or sharing what it's actually like to do this work. In short, paid is where I tell you what I think.
For a good place to start and find an index of some of my and my readers’ favourite posts, go here.
Why go paid?
Most environmental data is public. What isn’t is the time to read it all, connect it, and figure out what matters — or what it’s like to actually do this kind of science.
Paid subscribers get the deeper section of every Nexus Notes, plus the paid subscriber chat including exclusive threads. Your support keeps the expert-led, ad-free essays and signals free for everyone.
The price is going up once I reach 100 paid subscribers. We’re not there yet.
Who am I?
I’m Jonathan Tonkin (Jono for short) — an ecologist and biodiversity scientist at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, where I’m a Professor and Rutherford Discovery Fellow.
My research has spanned continents and ecosystems, but I’ve always returned to one core question: How do we predict and adapt to environmental change in a way that supports life — all life?
After publishing 100 peer-reviewed papers — including in Nature and Science — I want to share what I’ve learned beyond academia: translating the latest science into plain language, before it even reaches the headlines, to inform, inspire, and equip a wider community.
I'm also a parent of two young kids. That perspective shapes everything I write.
You can learn more about my research and lab at tonkinlab.org — we focus on biodiversity science for a changing world.
🏆 Recently, I was honoured with the New Zealand Prime Minister’s MacDiarmid Emerging Scientist Prize.
I’m also over on Bluesky and LinkedIn if you want to connect there too.
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Be sure to check out the archive for older posts.
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PS: Why the name?
It’s a bit of a play on words. My background is in ecology and biodiversity science, with a special focus on freshwater ecosystems. The name combines many of my interests and the theme of this blog: prediction and anticipation of future change, redirection of effort and resources, adaptation of future policy and management to unknown environmental threats, and, more generally, solutions to the joint biodiversity loss-climate change challenge.
