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Home
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Discussions
Employment Revisions Turn Positive
When Good News Becomes Even Better
6 hrs ago
•
Guy Berger
6
1
What's Ahead for a Warsh Fed
Warsh is right to rethink transparency and Fed communication, but his views on monetary policy and a new Fed Accord need work. This piece is the start…
Jun 9
•
Tim Mahedy
3
1
May 2026
More hiring. More layoffs. Why you should be doing more of both.
America's employers may come to regret their hiring freeze.
May 14
•
Guy Berger
6
2
April 2026
More Fed Attacks, More Trump Headaches, or Not
No, this isn't 4D chess. But the administration may not be in a rush to have Kevin Warsh confirmed as the next Fed Chair.
Apr 15
•
Tim Mahedy
4
2
The Unemployment Rate Is Alright
Not Perfect, but Very Useful.
Apr 10
•
Guy Berger
4
1
Houston, We Have a Core PCE Inflation Problem
...and it started before the Iran War.
Apr 9
•
Tim Mahedy
18
2
AI Isn't Causing the World to Implode, but Your Stale Talent Pipeline Might
We published a version of this argument in a Barron's op-ed last week. What follows is the extended director's cut.
Apr 7
•
Tim Mahedy
6
1
February 2026
AI & MARKETS: Dystopian Fears, Panicked Bears, and a Cold Shower
Citrini Research and Alap Shah wrote a tail-risk AI scenario that tanked markets. This is not the liquidity trap to worry about.
Feb 24
•
Tim Mahedy
6
1
December 2025
FED PREVIEW: December 2025 FOMC Meeting - More Smoke, Less Fire
What to expect at tomorrow's FOMC meeting and press conference.
Dec 9, 2025
•
Tim Mahedy
1
August 2025
FED: The most dangerous, and irresponsible, game
The administration is playing with fire for no reason. The attack against Governor Cook is dangerous, no matter what occurred.
Aug 20, 2025
•
Tim Mahedy
2
INFLATION: Not what the headlines said
If you read the paper today, you probably got the wrong impression about what the latest CPI data said about where inflation is heading. Here's what you…
Aug 13, 2025
•
Tim Mahedy
2
May 2025
FORECAST: Comfortably numb
The trade war is on pause, and frankly, we've gotten used to the chaos. That's good news for the economy.
May 28, 2025
•
Tim Mahedy
2
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