Archive - Access/Macro

Employment Revisions Turn Positive

When Good News Becomes Even Better

6 hrs ago • Guy Berger

What's Ahead for a Warsh Fed

Warsh is right to rethink transparency and Fed communication, but his views on monetary policy and a new Fed Accord need work. This piece is the start…

Jun 9 • Tim Mahedy

May 2026

More hiring. More layoffs. Why you should be doing more of both.

America's employers may come to regret their hiring freeze.

May 14 • Guy Berger

April 2026

More Fed Attacks, More Trump Headaches, or Not

No, this isn't 4D chess. But the administration may not be in a rush to have Kevin Warsh confirmed as the next Fed Chair.

Apr 15 • Tim Mahedy

The Unemployment Rate Is Alright

Not Perfect, but Very Useful.

Apr 10 • Guy Berger

Houston, We Have a Core PCE Inflation Problem

...and it started before the Iran War.

Apr 9 • Tim Mahedy

AI Isn't Causing the World to Implode, but Your Stale Talent Pipeline Might

We published a version of this argument in a Barron's op-ed last week. What follows is the extended director's cut.

Apr 7 • Tim Mahedy

February 2026

AI & MARKETS: Dystopian Fears, Panicked Bears, and a Cold Shower

Citrini Research and Alap Shah wrote a tail-risk AI scenario that tanked markets. This is not the liquidity trap to worry about.

Feb 24 • Tim Mahedy

December 2025

FED PREVIEW: December 2025 FOMC Meeting - More Smoke, Less Fire

What to expect at tomorrow's FOMC meeting and press conference.

Dec 9, 2025 • Tim Mahedy

August 2025

FED: The most dangerous, and irresponsible, game

The administration is playing with fire for no reason. The attack against Governor Cook is dangerous, no matter what occurred.

Aug 20, 2025 • Tim Mahedy

INFLATION: Not what the headlines said

If you read the paper today, you probably got the wrong impression about what the latest CPI data said about where inflation is heading. Here's what you…

Aug 13, 2025 • Tim Mahedy

May 2025

FORECAST: Comfortably numb

The trade war is on pause, and frankly, we've gotten used to the chaos. That's good news for the economy.

May 28, 2025 • Tim Mahedy