{"id":29849,"date":"2022-10-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-04T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/?post_type=magazine&#038;p=29849"},"modified":"2025-07-22T11:44:25","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T15:44:25","slug":"fall-foliage-and-climate-change-a-wild-mix","status":"publish","type":"magazine","link":"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/viewfinder\/fall-foliage-and-climate-change-a-wild-mix\/","title":{"rendered":"Fall Foliage and a Changing Climate: A Wild Mix"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The photogenic sprawl of trees in their vibrant fall colors is arguably one of the Hudson Valley\u2019s most defining features, annually drawing the awe of locals and out-of-towners alike. But if it has crossed your mind in recent years that the arrival of autumn\u2019s fiery hues just seems&nbsp;<em>different&nbsp;<\/em>than before, you might be onto something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In an era of rapidly changing climate, this yearly spectacle we\u2019ve counted on to materialize like clockwork is becoming more erratic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_29048552_Full.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30070\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Charles Flood Wildlife Management Area. (Photo: Robert Rodriguez, Jr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Some say the leaves are starting to change earlier, dipping backward into the lingering days of summer. Others note they\u2019re changing later and not sticking around as long as they once did, cutting the window of peak colors down to a miniscule few days. Others yet bemoan duller displays while, conversely, some marvel at more vivid coloration. The anecdotes would seem to contradict one another, except somehow, they\u2019re all rooted in truth. It just depends on your point of reference \u2014 and a multitude of natural phenomena that are increasingly in flux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Leaf senescence, or the colorful&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.esf.edu\/pubprog\/brochure\/leaves\/leaves.htm#:~:text=Chlorophyll%20Breaks%20Down,part%20of%20their%20fall%20splendor.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">process of their breakdown before falling off the tree<\/a>, is a complex operation. There are several factors that go into determining how leaves\u2019 end-of-life transition will pan out, most critical being temperature, precipitation, and the availability of sunlight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Fahnestock-State-Park_Little-Stony-Point_Pierce-Johnston_DSC_7608.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30641\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fahnestock State Park. (Photo: Courtesy Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Leaves get the energy they need to make food from the sunlight, which is absorbed by the green-pigment chemical, chlorophyll. As the conditions become less suitable for this transaction \u2014 photosynthesis \u2014 during the shorter, colder days of fall, it halts, and that green chlorophyll deteriorates, giving way to previously masked colors like yellow and orange, along with chemical processes in species like maples that produce brilliant reds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this is changing: Broadly, the Hudson Valley is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dec.ny.gov\/docs\/remediation_hudson_pdf\/ccinthehvms.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trending toward a warmer, wetter future<\/a>, and summer\u2019s hot days now frequently encroach into fall. This so far has resulted in some instances of later, seemingly sped-up fall color displays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Bear-Mountain-Bridge_Pierce-Johnston_DSC_3366-2-edited-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30640\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bear Mountain Bridge. (Photo: Courtesy Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOne of the things that we&#8217;ve been seeing is, as conditions are getting warmer, that&#8217;s allowing the plants to keep their leaves on for a little bit longer into the season,\u201d says Mukund Palat Rao, an ecoclimatologist and postdoctoral researcher at Columbia University\u2019s Columbia Climate School.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHowever, at some point, the light limitation becomes of greater importance than the temperature. When the availability of light is too low, even if you could have the leaves green later, at some point they just have to drop. And so, as the climate conditions are warming, you can have a delayed autumn, but then because the plants are running into this limitation of light, the senescence period \u2014 or how fast the leaves are becoming red and browning, and then eventually dying and falling off \u2014 that period is becoming shorter.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_57209860_Full.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30072\" style=\"width:840px;height:559px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Olana viewshed. (Photo: Robert Rodriguez, Jr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Rao, whose research focuses on the effects of a changing climate on the forest carbon cycle, works with an observation installation dubbed a PhenoCam, which snaps pictures of the forest canopy every 15 minutes from a rooftop at Columbia\u2019s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y. This type of round-the-clock monitoring has allowed for unprecedented insight into the behavior of local seasonal phenomena, like the timeline and vibrancy of fall leaf colors.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Palisades effort is still in its infancy, though, at only about three years up and running, and the team will need a lot more data to better assess the long-term outlook. \u201cWhat we don&#8217;t know, for example, is there a threshold beyond which autumn cannot be delayed any further?\u201d Rao says. \u201cHow fast is that transition going to happen? Is that just going to get shorter and shorter? That&#8217;s something that we are still trying to understand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Storm-King_Pierce-Johnston_DSC_4438.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30643\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Storm King Mountain. (Photo: Courtesy Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The PhenoCam system (\u201cpheno-\u201d coming from phenology, the study of natural periodic events) was pioneered by Andrew Richardson, now a professor and researcher at Northern Arizona University. After establishing the first such network in New Hampshire\u2019s White Mountains region in 2008 and later receiving the funding to scale up, his PhenoCam Network has expanded nationally and internationally to now include over 700 cameras. Data from these sites are publicly available through the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/phenocam.nau.edu\/webcam\/network\/map\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">network\u2019s interactive map<\/a>, which allows users to hone in on their specific areas of interest. \u201cWe\u2019ve got something like 60 million pictures in our archive, [about] 40 terabytes of disc space,\u201d Richardson notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_96609430_Full.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30073\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A path at Red Hook. (Photo: John Morzen)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Hudson Valley and across the nation, the data are pointing toward a common theme: variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While \u201cwarmer and wetter\u201d may be the overall tilt in these parts, extreme weather events are also on the rise, adding further complexity to the issue. Precipitation, an aforementioned key ingredient in the leaf lifecycle, is all over the place, with some years bringing an onslaught of heavy rainfall and others, like this year, bringing drought.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weather variability begets variability in autumn leaf presentation. A summer drought, for example, makes for \u201cstressed\u201d trees going into fall, which causes leaves to start changing earlier and take on a duller appearance. \u201cIf plants are stressed going into autumn,\u201d Richardson says, \u201cthey may not have the resources to invest in producing the colorful pigments that make leaves red.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Fahnestock-State-Park_Pierce-Johnston_DSC_1568-Pano1-edited-scaled-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30648\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fahnestock State Park. (Photo: Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And, what may be true to one locale won\u2019t necessarily be the case for another. \u201cFor every area that has a drought, there may be some area where they actually get more moisture than normal, maybe plants are actually less stressed,\u201d Richardson says. \u201cThere\u2019s just more variability than we used to see.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not just precipitation, either. Events like big wind storms \u2014 which we\u2019re now seeing more of \u2014 could simply strip the trees of their weakening leaves, abruptly severing the displays. This will ultimately influence the actual composition of forests down the line, too, which will affect what colors we see.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_35770501_Full.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30074\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fishkill Creek through Madam Brett Park. (Photo: Ed Mendoza)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019ll start to see more oaks,\u201d Richardson says, \u201cwhich, in some cases and especially in some years, don\u2019t do much. They just sort of turn brown, and that golden brown can be quite beautiful, but it\u2019s not the same as sugar maples, and the beautiful oranges and reds you get in some other species.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAlthough,\u201d he adds, \u201cred maples are also expected to do pretty well under climate change, so you will have some strong purples there from that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For leaf peepers, it\u2019s a double-edged sword. All that variability may make planning a bit trickier for those chasing the views \u2014 but it could also mean some of the best are still in store. If one year falls flat, just look toward the next.\u00a0<br><br>Enthusiasts looking to dive further into the issue can share their own observations, too. Document local conditions through the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usanpn.org\/home\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">USA National Phenology Network<\/a>\u00a0to help better our understanding around global environmental disruptions and these seasonal processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-1 is-cropped is-style-slider wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-wide-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30501\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_16642617-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30501\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bear Mountain. (Photo: Jeff Anzevino)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30494\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_23290859-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30494\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Lake Minnewaska.  (Photo: Jeff Severson Photography)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30503\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_15699242-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30503\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Mt. Beacon. (Photo: Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30496\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_34614122-1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30496\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Wonder Lake State Park. (Photo: Rob Cardascia)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30492\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_40500597-1-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30492\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hudson Highlands. (Photo: Robert Rodriguez, Jr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30499\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_40369286-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30499\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Helderberg Hudson Rail Trail. (Photo: Robert Rodriguez, Jr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_51977914-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30500\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Mt. Beacon. (Photo: Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30491\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_64433448-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30491\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Illinois Mountain. (Photo: Robert Rodgriguez, Jr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30493\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_66791784-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30493\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cold Spring. (Photo: Pierce Johnston)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-id=\"30502\" src=\"https:\/\/www.scenichudson.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/scenichudson_70514328-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30502\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Helderberg Hudson Rail Trail. (Photo: Robert Rodriguez, Jr.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cheyenne-macdonald-is-a-science-and-technology-journalist-based-in-the-hudson-valley-she-runs-a-science-newsletter-the-perpetual-stew-in-her-spare-time-when-she-s-not-writing-you-can-find-her-in-the-woods-nbsp\">Cheyenne MacDonald is a science and technology journalist based in the Hudson Valley. She runs a science newsletter,<a href=\"https:\/\/theperpetualstew.substack.com\/\"> the perpetual stew<\/a>, in her spare time. When she\u2019s not writing, you can find her in the woods.&nbsp;<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The photogenic sprawl of trees in their vibrant fall colors is arguably one of the Hudson Valley\u2019s most defining features, annually drawing the awe of locals and out-of-towners alike. But [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":35984,"parent":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rs_blank_template":"","rs_page_bg_color":"","slide_template_v7":"","footnotes":""},"vf-en-espanol":[],"vf-tags":[],"magazine_category":[307,437],"class_list":["post-29849","magazine","type-magazine","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","magazine_category-plants-and-animals","magazine_category-treesplease"],"acf":{"subtitle":"A warming planet may make the leaf-color-changing period shorter, more brilliant...and generally more variable.","english_translation_url":"","spanish_translation_url":""},"yoast_head":"<title>Fall Foliage and a Changing Climate: A Wild Mix - Scenic Hudson<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hudson Valley Viewfinder is a collaborative digital magazine celebrating the inspirational beauty of Hudson Valley communities and nature.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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