IPO Market Forecasts

Ooooo I like this... The London Stock Exchange and Crowdcube are partnering to open up private markets to retail investors. This is a big moment. Not just another press release. Not just another partnership of intent but one of action. And really, this could be one of the most important shifts in the UK funding landscape we have seen in years and about time. Here’s the sad reality. The UK has no shortage of world-class startups. We are inventors. We create unicorns. We attract talent. We build real innovation. But when it comes to scaling, too many companies end up needing to look to the US for major growth capital. Too many IPOs bypass London. And too many everyday investors here are locked out of the upside until it is already being captured elsewhere. This move can go a long way to help change that. By using the LSE’s super duper established market infrastructure and Crowdcube’s retail investor platform, they open the door for founders to raise serious capital while staying private, and opening the door for retail investors to participate alongside the institutions. It solves two problems at once: 👉🏽 Founders get more choice of where and how to raise. 👉🏽 Investors, not just the big guys, get access to late-stage companies while they are still growing fast. If it works, this could be the start of rebuilding confidence in UK capital markets. It makes London look like a place that backs innovation rather than just waves goodbye when companies decide they need to go abroad. It is not the final fix. But it is the right kind of innovation at the right time. It is good for founders. Good for investors. And good for the UK economy. Great job Matt Cooper and Julia Hoggett for making this one happen. 🤝 Now the question is… which scale-ups will be bold enough to be first through the door? I wonder.

This odd trend is threatening London’s future as a financial hub... A bunch of companies are delisting from the London Stock Exchange. Here's why it's happening (+ what needs to change to fix it). Delisting is when a company decides to stop being listed on a public stock market. Companies are delisting from the London Stock Exchange for a few reasons: 1. 💰 As private companies, they get better financing options which are more flexible and less open scrutiny (e.g. through private equity or venture capital funds). This is why REDX and C4X Discovery Ltd delisted from London’s AIM market. 2. 📈 It's expensive to maintain a public listing in the UK. You’ve got a bunch of ongoing disclosure and reporting obligations (as well as other regulatory requirements). Cost is the main reason Superdry announced it’ll be delisting from the London Stock Exchange. 3. 🤝 Delistings can happen naturally when a public company is acquired and the buyer wants to take it private. The music company Hipgnosis Songs Funds is a public company that's currently under a bidding way to be bought. Once that’s completed, the buyer will take Hipgnosis private. 4. 🧐 Companies feel their shares are undervalued in UK public markets compared to international markets. Shell’s CEO has specifically mentioned this before. These companies might delist in London and re-list somewhere they believe offers higher valuations. For corporate teams in law firms, listings and initial public offerings (or IPOs) are a source of *huge* revenue. After a listing, law firms still advise their public company clients on: 1. compliance with the complicated listing rules, 2. interacting with regulators, and 3. corporate governance (think: board structure, investor relations and annual meetings) So, fewer public companies means less of this type of work going round 👆️ Yes, lawyers *do* make money from helping companies delist — and commercial lawyers *do* a lot of work for private companies as well. But the delistings threaten the City’s reputation as a financial hub (which is bad news for professional services providers, like commercial law firms). So, how can this be fixed? Right now, it's clear the London Stock Exchange is seen as more expensive and difficult than other countries. Well, it's on the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the UK's financial regulator, to change the rules to make the UK's capital markets more attractive. Earlier this year, the FCA did announce some changes to make the rules in London simpler — so they're aware of the problem. But judging by the recent news, it seems there's still *a long* way to go. — Enjoyed this post? This is what we do at LittleLaw. We make commercial news free and accessible for aspiring lawyers. 💌 Sign up using the link in the comments

The U.S. IPO market is set for a strong comeback in 2025 after a three-year slowdown caused by high interest rates. Private equity firms are expected to play a key role, as they aim to offload major holdings like Medline and Genesys. Recent IPOs have performed well, boosting investor confidence, with many of the largest 2024 IPOs delivering strong returns. Key factors driving this resurgence include: 1) Federal Reserve rate cuts supporting dealmaking and fundraising. 2) Private equity pressures to return capital to investors after a long drought. 3) Investor preference for large, profitable companies over lossmaking startups. Upcoming IPOs may also feature prominent fintech players like Klarna and Chime, reflecting growing optimism across various sectors. Favorable market conditions and strong stock performance signal a robust IPO market for 2025.

Can private markets revive the City of London's flagging international standing? The London Stock Exchange is looking to launch what has been dubbed the world's first stock exchange for private companies, as it looks to stem the flow of companies leaving for New York. City AM reports: "Chief of the bourse Julia Hoggett, who also heads the Capital Markets Industry Taskforce, told reporters yesterday the new exchange would look to give private firms a place to auction shares akin to a public market, while remaining in private ownership. The exchange, currently called the “intermittent trading venue”, comes as top City figures search for ways to boost the Square Mile amid a sharp decline in IPOs and a flurry of firms ditching their listings for New York. Hoggett said the London Stock Exchange was currently running an internal competition to name the exchange, temporarily dubbed ‘ITV’, and was hoping to open the market in 2024. She added that she already had “incoming calls from all over the world asking if they could use [the new private exchange]”. “The reality is that we are seeing interest from companies who want to have the ability to generate liquidity events but who are not ready to go public,” she told reporters. The new bourse has also seen interest from a range of private equity and venture capital firms and institutional investors, Hoggett said. “It does feel like a mechanism for connecting these two ecosystems together and not putting private companies into a position where they are forced – possibly by their shareholders – into a trade sale with another institution when they would like to continue to grow,” she added." (+++Opinions are my own. Not investment advice. Do your own research.+++) Enjoyed this post? 👍 Like 💬 Comment 💌 Share 🔔 Subscribe

In the conversations I’ve had with clients across multiple sectors, the tone has shifted. There’s a sense that we’ve moved from tentative optimism to more deliberate action. Issuers who have been waiting for the right window are now stepping in. Macro risk hasn’t disappeared – as the events of this past weekend demonstrate – but investors are more engaged, and the ingredients for activity – market stability, supportive rates, and dry powder are increasingly falling into place. From all those calls and meetings, I’ve seen several themes emerge.   The IPO market is clearly reawakening after a pretty subdued six months. In just over a month, we’ve worked on seven out of the last nine IPOs in the US to price, and performance generally remains strong. Each transaction attracted significant interest from high quality investors, with order books multiple times oversubscribed, pricing at the high end of their initial filing ranges and are all trading well in the aftermarket. Executing these deals in quick succession is a strong signal that the IPO market is open for business.   Secondary issuance has been notably active: May marked our busiest months for follow-ons since 2021, with momentum carrying into June. Execution has been disciplined, with tighter pricing and strong investor participation.   Debt markets remain open but nuanced. High yield and leveraged loan volumes are close to last year’s levels despite a lighter LBO calendar. In investment grade, the bid for duration – especially on M&A-linked deals – is striking. Investors are showing a clear preference for structure and term. We’ve also seen issuers move early to pre-fund, with corporate hybrids up 45% and AT1 supply up 50% YoY.   Private equity remains selective but active. Sponsors are balancing pressure to return capital with a renewed ability to deploy. Dual-track processes are widespread, and the IPO route is becoming viable again for a broader set of companies.   Overall, confidence is key and those willing to move with it are being rewarded. The setup heading into H2 feels constructive to me.

2025 is off to an optimistic start for the deals market. Wall Street is preparing for a wave of initial public offerings as Private Equity firms seek to capitalise on strong U.S. equity markets to exit flagship investments. Companies like Medline Industries, LP and Genesys have already filed IPO paperwork, with more announcements expected in the first half of the year. The revival follows a strong 2024, where 9 of the 10 largest IPOs ended above their listing price, including Reddit, Inc.’s blockbuster debut, which achieved triple-digit gains. Optimism is fuelled by Federal Reserve rate cuts, a pro-business regulatory outlook, and the broader strength of U.S. stocks, which have surged nearly 70% since 2022. Private Equity-backed IPOs are set to dominate as firms face pressure to return cash to investors after a prolonged dealmaking drought. The focus has shifted from speculative startups to established companies, reflecting lessons learned from the overheated market of 2021. Investors now favour larger, more stable businesses with strong profitability, making Private Equity-backed IPOs particularly appealing. Source: Financial Times

All the news coming out of JPM sounded optimistic. But how do you actually quantify that? Tom Randall at Endpoints News set out to do exactly that. He built the Biopharma Sentiment Index (BPSI), a quarterly survey designed to put numbers behind how the biopharma industry actually feels, not just what it says on panels. How to read BPSI: 100 = neutral Below 100 means pessimism dominates Above 100 means optimism dominates Going into Q1 2026, BPSI moved from 78 → 90. That does not mean biotech is “back.” It means we are past the bottom, but not fully normalized yet. What the numbers are really saying: - All 10 core sentiment measures improved in a single quarter. - Future expectations hit 100 (neutral) for the first time in over a year, while current conditions rose to ~75 from ~58. - Investors and senior executives are the most positive, while scientists remain cautious. That sequencing matters. Capital and leadership sentiment are typically leading indicators. Hiring, budgets, and lab expansion lag. - Dealmaking became the #1 source of optimism, cited by ~28% of respondents. That is a shift from narrative-driven optimism (AI, discovery) to activity-driven optimism. - 65% expect strategic transactions to accelerate over the next 12 months. Only 6% expect a slowdown. - Regulatory pessimism remains the biggest drag: ~69% say the regulatory environment has worsened year over year. - Despite rising confidence, fewer than 25% would invest their own money in biopharma over the S&P or tech. Conviction is recovering more slowly than sentiment. Read more in the article posted in the comments

One year on from its IPO on Nasdaq, the UK microchip designer Arm is valued at a cool £111 billion. If it was a #FTSE100 constituent it would be the fifth largest, eclipsed only by AstraZeneca, Shell, Unilever and HSBC. It’s important to look forward as London’s capital markets reform continues – and the recent Financial Conduct Authority listing rules changes are a tangible leap - but let’s not forget the One That Got Away. Too often the matter of attracting and keeping the best companies trading here is depicted as a top-down problem, an international battle between London, New York and Amsterdam. And to a degree it is. But if London wants to thrive as the home to more public companies of scale, it must apply some bottom-up solutions, some distance from the FTSE 100. That means: Building on existing, highly successful tax incentives, such as AIM business relief, EIS and VCT, that unite patient capital with growing businesses; Aligning billions more invested in UK pensions with smaller UK companies which have suffered most as liquidity has declined; Encouraging retail investors to try shares over cash more often; Making it easier for companies to connect with their ultimate owners and run stock incentive plans for their employees; Cutting stamp duty on share trading, a tax currently levied at the highest rate anywhere in the world other than Ireland; Devising solutions to soaring audit costs and uncommunicative proxy advisers. The Quoted Companies Alliance is busy on all these fronts, championing tomorrow's blue chips. #cityoflondon #publicequity #growthcapital #midcaps #smallcaps #microcaps #investment #wealthcreation #ukeconomy #ipo #ftse London Stock Exchange Aquis Stock Exchange CMIT - Capital Markets Industry Taskforce

The UK equity market is a strategic asset for the UK - it drives soft power, economic growth, wealth creation, savings and tax revenue. However, we are seeing companies being acquired at an alarming rate. In just 6 months there have been bids for 5 FTSE100 companies and 8 FTSE250. The offer for SEGRO plc today joins the recent offers for Intertek, Schroders, Beazley and DCC plc. All of these are being acquired by overseas entities with 3 corporate acquirors and 2 PE. We have now seen 29 companies bid ytd (>£100m mkt cap) with a total value of £60bn - the number of IPOs >£100m mkt cap is ZERO! This really does matter as we are losing jobs, tax revenues and the ecosystem of services that support companies. The root cause is the outflow of assets from UK funds. This can be easily reversed (stamp duty, pensions, ISAs, direct investment by gov, tax structure etc). This should be a key priority of government and our new PM if we want to have a healthy equity market in the UK as well as all the associated tax revenue. Doing nothing is not an option. Steven Fine Kallum Pickering Julia Hoggett Charlie Walker Will Hutton Baroness Katie Martin of Brockley Alexandra Depledge, MBE