The framework, reported by Bloomberg and corroborated by additional drafts circulating among regional outlets, sets a status-quo arrangement. Iran would maintain its current nuclear footprint, and Washington would withhold new sanctions and further military reinforcement in the region.

In exchange, the US Treasury Department would issue waivers for Iranian crude oil and petrochemical exports and release up to $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets. The draft also provides for at least $300 billion in financing tied to Iran's economic rehabilitation.

"The United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like," the draft states.

The Strait of Hormuz carries close to a fifth of global seaborne oil. A confirmed reopening, alongside the sanctioned-barrel waivers, would restore Iranian supply that markets had discounted during the conflict. The arrangement also conditions sanctions relief on a moratorium on enrichment, linking energy flows to nuclear verification across the 60-day term.

Multiple versions of the document have circulated, with terms differing most on the scale and timing of the financial package. The signing would follow a period of direct hostilities that had elevated the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude. The development reflects broader efforts by both governments to convert a fragile pause into a durable framework governing oil, sanctions, and regional security.

The US tariff decision on copper imports is weeks away, with the Commerce Secretary due to deliver a recommendation to President Donald Trump by 30 June. The market has already begun pricing the outcome. The COMEX-LME spread has widened to around $400/t, suggesting the market continues to price meaningful tariff risk into US-delivered refined copper

Supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-linked power demand are supporting copper prices

Where we are now

LME copper is trading near record highs, with prices up around 10% year-to-date and holding up well against a difficult macro backdrop. Strong US jobs data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive for longer, while renewed tensions involving Iran have weighed on broader risk sentiment.

Supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-linked power demand are keeping copper more resilient than the broader complex, with the tariff decision now only weeks away.

What the tariff decision looks like

When President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper in July 2025, refined copper was carved out. That exemption is now under review. The Commerce Secretary has until 30 June to deliver an updated recommendation to Trump on whether and how to extend tariffs to refined copper. The original Commerce Department proposal called for a 15% tariff on refined copper imports effective January 2027, escalating to 30% in 2028.

Earlier this month, Trump signed a proclamation adjusting the broader metals tariff framework – maintaining the 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, lowering the domestic content threshold from 95% to 85% to qualify for preferential treatment, and broadening the scope to include additional semi-fabricated products such as electrical conductors and cables. New rates took effect 8 June. These changes are widely seen as preparatory steps ahead of the refined copper review, making it easier for importers to qualify for preferential treatment tied to domestically produced metal.

How the market has already repositioned

Since February, US copper imports have spiked in anticipation of the tariff deadline, encouraging additional shipments into the US and tightening supply in other regions.

COMEX-registered inventories have risen to record highs. That build has come directly at the expense of LME and SHFE stocks, which have declined sharply over the same period.

COMEX stocks hit records, LME inventories also trend higher

Meanwhile ex-US inventories have declined sharply

This is not a demand-driven inventory build. It reflects a geographic redistribution of available metal driven by tariff arbitrage. A significant volume of copper cathode is now economically 'locked' into the US market. While some of this metal could eventually be released if tariff expectations fade, the prospect of further trade policy measures means inventories are increasingly being held as strategic rather than ‘arbitrageable’.

The COMEX-LME spread began re-widening from early 2026 as the 30 June deadline came into focus. It turned positive again in late March and has been climbing since, reaching around $400/t in early June. At current levels, the spread is well below the peak of around $2,937/t seen in late July 2025 when a 50% tariff on all copper was briefly feared. This suggests the market views a 15% phased tariff as a much more contained outcome.

COMEX-LME copper spread rewidens

What happens after the announcement

A confirmed 15% phased tariff from 1 January 2027 would likely increase the premium of COMEX over LME copper. In practice, both benchmarks would move higher. COMEX would be supported by stronger US import demand, while LME would also benefit as metal diverted away from the US tightens supply availability elsewhere.

The overall impact would be supportive for copper prices globally, although the larger move would likely occur in COMEX.

If the proposed increase to 30% in 2028 is brought forward or confirmed as a near-term policy objective, the premium could expand further.

A delay represents the clearest near-term downside risk for the spread, although the impact would likely be more limited than an outright rejection of tariffs. The arb would compress and the pace of inflows into COMEX would slow – but material already stockpiled in the US is unlikely to leave the market quickly. As long as tariff risks remain, a significant portion of those stocks is likely to remain effectively locked within the US market. The spread would narrow, but would probably settle at a structurally wider level than pre-2025 norms rather than collapsing back to parity.

An outright rejection of tariffs remains the most bearish case. US import demand would drop sharply, and with the stockpiling incentive removed, both benchmarks would likely come under pressure. US-held metal could then potentially re-enter the global market or at least stop being 'locked' in the US.

Supply outlook remains tight

We forecast the global copper market to move into a deficit of around 35kt in 2026, reflecting mine supply losses across Indonesia, Chile, the DRC and Zambia, alongside disruptions to Middle Eastern sulphur flows and sustained end-use demand in electrification and grid infrastructure. The tariff outcome does not change that underlying market balance. However, it will determine how quickly the deficit becomes visible in exchange inventory data and how the price gap between COMEX and LME evolves.

We see LME copper broadly supported at current levels through 2Q, before easing modestly into 3Q and 4Q as the initial tariff stockpiling impulse fades and macro headwinds persist. The tariff announcement itself represents near-term upside risk to our near-term forecast. A front-loaded 30% tariff would put further upside in play. Conversely, a delay or outright rejection of tariffs represents the clearest downside risk to our view over the second half of the year.

The 30 June deadline and the COMEX-LME spread are the two indicators to watch most closely over the coming weeks.

TL;DR

• The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but markets are increasingly focused on whether the new chair, Kevin Warsh, removes the Fed’s long-standing easing bias and signals a more neutral or hawkish stance.

• Strong labor market data and sticky inflation have shifted the debate from rate cuts to possible rate hikes. Markets currently p…

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Featured Analysis:

In Other News:

Data on Deck: FOMC

MONDAY, JUNE 15

• No major US releases

TUESDAY, JUNE 16

• No major US releases

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17

• 8:30a Core Retail Sales m/m (prev 0.7% → est 0.5%)

• 8:30a Retail Sales m/m (prev 0.5% → est 0.5%)

• 2p Federal Funds Rate (prev 3.75% → est 3.75%)

• 2p FOMC Economic Projections

• 2p FOMC Statement

• 2:30p FOMC Press Conference

THURSDAY, JUNE 18

• 8:30a Unemployment Claims (prev 229K → est 225K)

FRIDAY, JUNE 19

• 8a Bank Holiday

***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix intern

Technical Comments:

poly, short covering vs new longs entering

Summary

After one of the sharpest corrections of the current cycle, (and CITI’s recent announcement advising clients to not buy the dip in gold) Crédit Agricole believes the market may be misreading gold’s recent weakness. The bank argues that rising real rates, stronger dollar demand, and central bank selling linked to the Iran conflict have created temporary pressure on prices, but have not altered the structural forces that have supported gold since 2022. Their conclusion is straightforward: buy the dip.

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Wgc Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026

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Morning Rundown:

Macro-Economics/Commodities:

Energy/Geopolitics:

Founders:

GOLDFIX Intraday Chat:

Authored by Michael Every

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GFN – LONDON: Central banks are increasingly moving gold reserves out of traditional storage hubs in London and New York, reflecting growing concerns about geopolitical risk, sanctions exposure, and maintaining uninterrupted access to sovereign assets.

Contents

1. A Shift In Storage Strategy

2. France And India Lead Recent Moves

3. Alternative Vaulting Hubs Emerging

4. The Numbers Behind The Shift

5. GoldFix Comment

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A NYSE gauge of gold miners has fallen 31 percent since the end of February, while the S&P 500 Index has gained 8 percent over the same period, according to Bloomberg News, a divergence that has accompanied sharp, headline-driven swings across the mining complex. Brian Laks, chief investment officer of Old West Investment Management, has been trimming the Los Angeles firm's gold holdings after bullion and related shares rallied to records and began behaving like speculative instruments, a shift from the defensive role they long played.

The shares have tracked the course of Middle East diplomacy in recent sessions, falling 4.8 percent on a Wednesday after renewed threats of US strikes on Iran, recovering the next session once those strikes were canceled, and closing 3.6 percent higher on Friday amid reports of progress toward a US-Iran agreement. Other managers have moved similarly, with Tuttle Capital Management cutting its gold and silver allocation to 5 percent of its actively managed fund from about 15 percent since the conflict began, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF recording three consecutive months of outflows.

"Gold's not the same trade that it was 10 years ago," Laks said.

The repricing follows an exceptional run, as gold gained 65 percent in 2025 and the NYSE gold miners index rose 155 percent, with Newmont, Barrick and Agnico Eagle each advancing at least 116 percent, leaving the group sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. The retreat has unwound part of that advance and left miners trailing the broader equity market, a divergence that has tested the sector's long-standing reputation as a steadier proxy for the metal. The episode reflects gold's evolving function within institutional portfolios, where a former haven asset is increasingly assessed alongside higher-beta equity exposures.

Record Survey Signals Official-Sector Demand Remains Intact

GFN – LONDON: The world’s central banks are sending a clear message: despite gold’s sharp correction from its January highs, they are not backing away.

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Citi says gold’s break below its 200-day moving average is a major warning sign, with prices potentially falling toward $4,000 before the next sustainable rally begins, even as the bank maintains a longer-term bullish outlook

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Featured Analysis:

In Other News:

Data on Deck: FOMC

MONDAY, JUNE 15

• No major US releases

TUESDAY, JUNE 16

• No major US releases

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17

• 8:30a Core Retail Sales m/m (prev 0.7% → est 0.5%)

• 8:30a Retail Sales m/m (prev 0.5% → est 0.5%)

• 2p Federal Funds Rate (prev 3.75% → est 3.75%)

• 2p FOMC Economic Projections

• 2p FOMC Statement

• 2:30p FOMC Press Conference

THURSDAY, JUNE 18

• 8:30a Unemployment Claims (prev 229K → est 225K)

FRIDAY, JUNE 19

• 8a Bank Holiday

***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix intern

Technical Comments:

poly, short covering vs new longs entering

Morning Rundown:

Macro-Economics/Commodities:

Energy/Geopolitics:

Founders:

GOLDFIX Intraday Chat:

Authored by Benjamin Picton

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Citi Gold

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GFN – SINGAPORE: Singapore will launch an over-the-counter gold-clearing system by the end of 2026, with JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, DBS, OCBC, UOB and ICBC Standard Bank participating as clearing members, Reuters reported.

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Weekly Activity

• Day 1- new shorts get in > 1900

• Day 2- old shorts cover, new shorts sell

• Day 3- New shorts get in >4600

• Day 4- old shorts cover, old longs puke

• Day 5- New shorts get in > 1500

• Day 6- New shorts get in > 3800

• Day 7- new longs get in > 4700

• Day 8 - sma…

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