Pitch Abbreviation Guide:

FF: 4-Seam

SI: Sinker

CT: Cutter

CH: Changeup

SPL: Splitter

SL: Slider

SW: Sweeper

CB: Curveball

#1 Jackson Flora | 55 FV
UC Santa Barbara
RHP
6’5” 205 lbs

Flora came into the 2026 Draft Cycle fighting with Cameron Flukey for SP1 status, both of them had compelling cases, but with Flukey being sidelined with an injury for most of the 2026 season, Flora stepped up and has firmly cemented himself as the top arm in the class.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-5, 205 pounds, Flora has an athletic delivery from a low-3/4 arm slot, with plus extension down the mound. He wields 4 pitches, a 4-Seam, Changeup, Slider, and Sweeper. His 4-Seam has been up to 100.4, while averaging around 96. It gets slightly above average ride from his release height and is Flora’s primary pitch. He is able to throw it early for strikes with a First Pitch Strike% at 66. To lefties, Flora’s main secondary pitch is his Changeup, it sits 87-89 with 4.2 IVB and 7 HB, he is able to effectively kill spin on it and generates depth by kicking down the axis. The feel for the pitch may not be there for Flora quite yet, the movement distributions are a bit wild as he sometimes just can’t get the axis down. He has a couple of them that went glove-side and kind of just floated, continued development of the pitch will be something to watch as Flora makes his way through an organizations development system. Flora uses both his breaking balls as his secondary weapon to righties. His Sweeper sits 80-81, right at the 0 line with nearly 18” of sweep. He pairs that with a harder Slider with some more lift at 86.5. He has plus feel for spin for both pitches, with spin rates routinely eclipsing 2600.

Flora has a lot of traits that should translate well into a quality MLB starter. He has great size and body control that will work to his advantage, his ability to get down the mound and extend, allows him to get to a lower release height which helps his 4-Seam play up even more. Something to look at is Flora’s command, the zone rates on his 4-Seam could be better and the increase in walk rate from last year is not insignificant. Flora will be an intriguing name to watch as he develops and will no doubt see his name called early July 11th.

Usage:

v Right: 45% FF | 24% SW | 20% SL | 11% CH

v Left: 44% FF | 34% CH | 12% SL | 10% SW

Overall: 45% FF | 21% CH | 18% SW | 16% SL

#2 Cade Townsend | 50 FV
Ole Miss
RHP
6’1” 185 lbs

Townsend might be a surprise here at #2, ahead of names like Liam Peterson and Cameron Flukey, however I believe Townsend possesses all the stuff and talent to be one of the top arms in this class.

Scouting Report: Standing at 6-foot-1 185 pounds, Townsend is a lean righty that wields 5 distinct pitches which he throws from a high-3/4 arm slot. He is able to utilize his pitch mix well, with no pitch surpassing 30% in overall usage, being unpredictable and keeping hitters on their toes. Townsend throws 2 Fastball subtypes, a 4-Seam and a Cutter, both with around the same usage. His 4-Seam sits 95-96 and has topped out at 98, he generates good ride, 19.6” IVB, from a 6.2 ft release height and can throw it for strikes. His Cutter sits in around 90 and is his primary fastball against righties it sits around 7” of IVB with 3” of cut, generating great results across the board and has an impressive 26.6 In-ZoneWhiff%. His Slider, is his primary breaking ball weapon against righties, it averages 85 mph with 11” of glove side movement and has returned strong results so far, getting a 45.5 Whiff% and 41 Chase%. Against lefties, Townsend likes to rely more on his Curveball, which averages around 83 mph with -15” of IVB, it can generate Whiffs, but struggles to generate chase, and he cheats his arm angle up a bit in order to generate the needed depth. He has a Splitter which he exclusively throws to lefties, it sits around 88 and generates a 44 Whiff%.

I will be watching intently to see where Townsend lands in the upcoming draft. He has a ton of talent and can reach even greater heights in the right development system.

Usage:

v Right: 36% CT | 28% FF | 25% SL | 11% CB

v Left: 30% FF | 27% SPL | 19% CB | 17% CT | 7% SL

Overall: 29% FF | 28% CT | 17% SL | 14% CB | 12% SPL

#3 Logan Reddemann | 50 FV
UCLA
RHP
6’2” 200 lbs

Reddemann is the Friday guy for the #1 team in the country and has been lights out so far. He has rocketed up draft boards for his ability to throw hard, go deep into games, strike people out, and lastly his command, which is arguably the best in the entire draft class.

Here is a crazy stat to demonstrate just how rare the combination of the four is in college baseball. There are only 2 college pitchers since 2019 that have had:

Top Velo >= 98.5
BB% < 5%
IP/G >= 5
K% > 35%

2023 Paul Skenes and 2026 Logan Reddemann

That’s obviously great company to be in, especially given Skenes’ success at the major league level. While Reddemann doesn’t quite have the firepower of Skenes’ it showcases how rare the combination of traits that has seen him skyrocket up boards is.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-2 200 pounds, Reddemann came into 2026, 15 pounds heavier and as a result his velocity ticked up 2 and a half ticks. This launched Reddemann from just an average control specialist to a force to be reckoned with in the BIG 10, pitching to a 2.44 ERA and 1.85 FIP with a 35.7 K% and 4.1 BB% against conference opponents. Reddemann wields a 5-pitch mix, relying mainly on his 4-Seam, Changeup, and Slider, sprinkling a Sweeper and a Curveball in platoon specific matchups. His 4-Seam sits 94-96 and has topped out at 98.6, he locates it well at the top of the zone and has generated an impressive 26 Whiff% and 34 Chase%. The Changeup averages 84.5 and sits about 4” of IVB under the 4-Seam with negligible horizontal separation, despite the unassuming shape, he is able to locate it well down in the zone and middle away, generating an impressive 37 Whiff% when in the zone. The Slider is Reddemann’s best pitch, at 88 mph its a hard, almost gyro-like pitch with 4” of IVB and -1.6” of HB. He is able to bury it down and in, in the zone to lefties, and just outside the zone to righties, inducing lots of chase. Reddemann finishes off his arsenal with a Curveball at 80 that he shows to lefties, and a Sweeper which has movement variation that sits in between the Slider and Curveball, all the way to 20” of sweep that he throws to righties. Development of the Sweeper will be something to watch as Reddemann takes the next steps into a big league organization.

Reddemann’s stock is already super high, however it has been slightly dampened as of late as Reddemann hasn’t pitched in a month due to injury, the Bruins are certainly hoping he’ll be back for their NCAA Tournament run, and a strong showing from Reddemann then would certainly cement his spot as one of the top pitchers in this draft.

Usage:

v Right: 53% FF | 22% SL | 15% CH | 9% SW | 1% CB

v Left: 53% FF | 26% CH | 11% SL | 9% CB | 1% SW

Overall: 53% FF | 20% CH | 17% SL | 5% SW | 5% CB

#4 Cameron Flukey | 50 FV
Coastal Carolina
RHP
6’6” 210 lbs

Like I mentioned with Flora, Flukey was in the conversation to be the SP1 of the draft class when the season began, however injuries have hampered his chances a bit, Flukey pitched in Coastal’s opening day matchup against Fairfield on February 13th, before a rib injury sidelined him 2+ months, returning April 26th against Texas State.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-6 210 pounds, Flukey is a monster on the mound with a big, lean and projectable frame. He has a high leg kick with a long arm action and plus extension out front from a high-3/4 slot. He throws 4 pitches, a 4-Seam, Curveball, Slider and Change, although he uses the latter sparingly. His 4-Seam sits 95-97 topping out around 98, getting great ride on the pitch, inducing lots of chases at the top of the zone. His Curveball is a bit on the softer side at 78, but generates solid depth a -13” of IVB and has returned strong results so far. His Slider is at 84 and is a short, gyro shape. He has a new and improved Changeup at 87 with added depth compared to last year that he has barely thrown, but we should start to see the usage creep up more as Flukey starts to get into form. Overall it’s a solid mix that will improve over time as Flukey starts to add more velo and refine his pitches.

Similarly to Reddemann, Flukey’s performance in Coastal Carolina’s NCAA Tournament run will be key in reassuring top decision makers that he can still pitch to his potential post-injury, and will definitely be a name to watch

Usage:

v Right: 52% FF | 35% SL | 13% CB

v Left: 60% FF | 31% SL | 5% CB | 4% CH

Overall: 55% FF | 34% SL | 10% CB | 1% CH

#5 Liam Peterson | 50 FV
Florida
RHP
6’5” 220 lbs

There is no denying that Liam Peterson has immense stuff, a big issue that gives evaluators pause is his command. He has a 11.6 BB% so far which is one of the worst among Power 4 draft eligible arms. Whether or not Peterson can reign in his command will be the defining factor in his future success. Peterson made steps in his command from his freshman season into his sophomore campaign, however that trend has not continued into his junior year campaign.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-5 220 pounds its a physical and high-waisted frame for the Florida righty. He has a tight, compact delivery with a short arm action from a 3/4 slot. He has a 4-pitch mix consisting of a 4-Seam, Slider, Changeup and Curveball. His 4-Seam sits 95-97 and has touched 100.9, it has exceptional ride at 20.9” of IVB, it generates lots of whiffs up in the zone as well as on the outer third of the plate to righties. His Slider averages 86 mph, and is a tight, hard biter with 0” of IVB and -5” of HB. He has immense feel for spin, with plus or better spin traits on it. He buries the Slider low and away to righties and has had insane results, with righties whiffing at the pitch over 54 percent of the time. Peterson has a Changeup that he shows to primarily to lefties at 86 which has returned a whiff rate over 55% so far. Finally, he rounds off his arsenal with a Curveball at 79.5 with good depth and 2800+ spin rates. Something to monitor with Peterson will be his command, the righty walked over 11% of batters faced so far. In addition to that it will be important for Peterson to develop a 3rd pitch he can show to righties. Right now he almost exclusively throws 50/50 4-Seam and Sliders to righties with no real third option to use, adjustment of usage splits or the development of a 3rd pitch to righties will be crucial for him

Peterson looked like he could be a Top 10 talent in the draft in February and potentially even enter the conversation as SP1 if he made gains in his command like he did from his freshman to sophomore year. However as the season has progressed it became apparent that those issues are still there and it is looking increasingly unlikely that the righty will go in the Top 10. There are still some issues to solve for the team that drafts him but there is no denying that the talent and stuff is there.

Usage:

v Right: 46% FF | 45% SL | 6% CB | 3% CH

v Left: 46% FF | 24% CH | 16% CB | 14% SL

Overall: 46% FF | 30% SL | 13% CH | 11 % CH

#6 Cole Carlon | 50 FV
Arizona State
LHP
6’5” 220 lbs

Cole Carlon finally gets the lefty representation going here at #6. Carlon was an effective reliever for Arizona State his first 2 years there before coming into the Friday role his Junior year. Carlon, like Peterson comes in with some control concerns, but Carlon has been able to continually improve on it, going from an abysmal 13.7 BB% to a serviceable 9.2 BB%.

Scouting Report: Carlon is a big 6-foot-5 lefty out of Tempe, Arizona. He has 4 pitches, which he throws from a 3/4 slot. His primary pitch is his Slider at 87, it averages 4.5” of IVB and 1” of HB and may be the best breaking ball in the draft class. The results demonstrate this conjecture, even with the Slider being his primary pitch he is still able to generate a 56.7 Whiff% on it. His 4-Seam sits 95-97 T100.7, with an average movement profile given his release height. Carlon’s next 2 pitches, his Curveball and Changeup both have usage rates at or under 5%. Carlon will need to work on developing those pitches if he wants to become a starter at the major league level. His Curveball sits around 77 with -4.5” of IVB, which is below average especially given his 4-Seam velo, and Carlon has to cheat his arm angle up to get to that minimal depth, which could raise some concerns about Carlon’s ability to effectively expand his arsenal. He has flashed a Changeup at 84 which has looked good when thrown. Continued development of both his strike-throwing abilities and the rest of his arsenal will be a defining factor in his future development.

Carlon has some reliever risk in his profile, given that he throws 2 pitches over 90% of the time, limits his outlook on him as a starter. Carlon already has the makings of a solid changeup, continuing to develop that would be the logical next step, as well as upping the Curveball usage, despite its shortfalls, it still provides a different look and returned good results during the rare times he threw it. Something else to note is Carlon leaving his May 15th start early due to a dip in velocity, will definitely be something to monitor.

Usage:

v Right: 49% SL | 39% FF | 6% CB | 6% CH

v Left: 59% SL | 38% FF | 3% CB | <1% CH

Overall: 53% SL | 38% FF | 5% CB | 4% CH

#7 Jack Radel | 45+ FV
Notre Dame
RHP
6’5” 210 lbs

Radel is an up-arrow name this cycle and its not hard to see why. The righty added 2 ticks from his sophomore year, throws 5 pitches and is now tinkering with a 6th one. Pair that with plus-plus extension and you have a recipe for success. He has pitched to a 3.32 ERA and 2.49 FIP so far this season.

Scouting Report: Standing at 6-foot-5 210 pounds, Radel is a tall, physical righty. He wields 6 pitches which he throws from a 3/4 slot with plus plus extension down the mound. His 4-Seam averages 94 and has reached 97.8 mph, He’s able to throw it for strikes often, and has a Competitive Location rate north of 90% on the pitch. His slider averages 83 with 4” of glove side break, generating Whiff% and Chase% north of 40. His cutter sits 89-90 with 10” of IVB and a HB near the 0 line. His Changeup averages 88 mph and he uses it almost exclusively to lefties. His Curveball averages 82 with -7” of IVB. He recently started tinkering with a new Sinker in his start against Stanford on May 1st, it will be interesting to watch the development of this pitch and how it will fit into his arsenal.

Overall Radel is a guy that can throw decently hard, with a kitchen sink arsenal and above average command. That should play at the next level as Radel continues to refine that arsenal.

Usage:

v Right: 48% FF | 28% SL | 17 CT% | 5% CB | 2% CH

v Left: 43% FF | 25% SL | 14% CH | 8% CB | 7% CT | 3% SI

Overall: 45% FF | 27% SL | 13% CT | 7% CH | 7% CB | 1% SI

#8 Tegan Kuhns | 45+ FV
Tennessee
RHP
6’3” 190 lbs

As Tennessee’s Friday guy Kuhns had high expectations coming into 2026 and has delivered on them so far. The draft-eligible sophomore has a respectable 3.52 ERA in SEC competition. Kuhns was considered by some to be a top 60 talent in the 2024 MLB Draft (Ranked #57 by Baseball America), but he chose to pass up big money and elected to attend Tennessee instead.

Scouting Report: Kuhns is a 6-foot-3 190 pound righty, it’s still a lean frame with some more room to add. Kuhns throws 4 pitches from a 3/4 slot. Kuhns’ 4-Seam averaged 94-95 and has been up to 98+, it gets exceptional ride from a 5.5 release height, is easily a plus pitch. He has a CB at 77 with -10” of IVB that he hammers at the bottom of the zone getting good results when located there. He mixes in a gyro-like Slider at 83-84 to righties that has generated lots of chase. He uses his Changeup at 83.5 to lefties that can generate whiffs, but he tends to miss a lot arm side. Kuhns had a bit of a walk problem his Freshman year but has since cut it down in half. It will be interesting to see if the command gains hold, or if they’ll regress back slightly.

Kuhns will be an interesting follow come draft day, and it looks like his decision to forego the draft 2 years ago may pay off as he’s expected to go off the board in the first to early second round. Time will tell if Kuhns command improvements hold, and if it does and Kuhns tacks on more velo, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Usage:

v Right: 57% FF | 22% SL | 19% CB | 2% CH

v Left: 56% FF | 26% CB | 17% CH | <1% SL

Overall: 56% FF | 23% CB | 11% SL | 10% CH

#9 Hunter Dietz | 45+ FV
Arkansas
LHP
6’6” 235 lbs

Dietz only pitched a combined 1.2 IP during his first 2 years in college, with injuries severely limiting his ability to pitch. However, Dietz has come back healthy for his draft year and has been lights out so far, the lefty owns a 3.47 ERA in SEC play and is averaging 8+ strikeouts a game.

Scouting Report: At a gigantic 6-foot-6 235 pounds, Dietz has an imposing presence on the mound, He has a simple and smooth delivery from a 3/4 slot and a high 6.8 ft release height. Dietz wields 3 pitches, a 4-Seam, Slider, and Curveball. His 4-Seam averages 95 mph and has touched above 98. Similarly to Carlon, Dietz doesn’t generate above average IVB despite the high release height, how Dietz’s 4-Seam movement profile will translate to the MLB ball will be key to watch. His Slider at 85 has returned exceptional results, with a 51 Whiff%. There is some variation in movement on the pitch, with some acting like a Cutter and some with more of a deathball look to it, which makes me think it can eventually be split into 2 different pitches. When separating out the Sliders above and below the 0 line, there is definitely some velo separation there and may even be 2 different pitches already. His Curveball averages 80 mph and gets good depth to it with a -14.5 IVB, similarly to the Slider it has returned great results to the tune of a 54% whiff rate with plus spin traits. Dietz, has played around with a Changeup, sprinkling in 1 or 2 across starts, but the overall usage sits below 1% and will definitely need to be something to explore later on.

After missing 2 years due to injury and unlucky circumstances, Dietz finally returned and answered some of the questions surrounding him. Its a great storyline to follow, from missing 2 full years of development, Dietz has pitched himself into a great position for the upcoming draft, with some floating his name in the 1st round. There is definitely some exciting opportunities when looking at arsenal expansion that I have no doubt the team that drafts him will explore.

Usage:

v Right: 48% FF | 37% SL | 14% CB | 1% CH

v Left: 48% FF | 47% SL | 5% CB

Overall: 48% FF | 40% SL | 11% CB | 1% CH

#10 Ben Blair | 45+ FV
Liberty
RHP
6’3” 200 lbs

Ben Blair gets the mid majors some more love here at number 10. A big riser this year Blair has been consistent for Liberty during his three years there, having an ERA below 4 all 3 years. Blair has jumped up draft boards by showing an improvement in command with a miniscule 3.6 BB% this season.

Scouting Report: Standing a 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, Blair offers at unique look to batters with a funky, deceptive delivery from a low-3/4 to sidearm slot and plus or better extension down the mound. He wields 5 pitches, a Sinker, Cutter, 4-Seam, Slider, and Changeup. His 4-Seam and Sinker both average 94-95, and often blend together in shape, however there is a conscious effort to throw the pitches in platoon favorable context, (more Sinkers to righties and more 4-Seam to lefties). His Cutter averages 86 with 11” of IVB and -2” of HB, its performed well so far with a 37 Whiff%. Blair’s Slider/Sweeper averages 82 with 15” of sweep. He rounds out his arsenal with the occasional Changeup at 87-88.

Blair will be an interesting watch for whatever team drafts him, the gains made in the command department have been impressive, and given his unique look it will make it even tougher for batters to barrel up his pitches.

Usage:

v Righties: 40% SI | 27% CT | 17% FF | 16% SL

v Lefties: 33% FF | 24% CT | 23% SI | 16% SL | 4% CH

Overall: 33% SI | 24% CT | 23% FF | 16% SL | 4% CH

Thank you for reading! The goal is for this list to keep expanding as we approach the draft, I am expecting big moves in the board as we get more clarity on some of the arms in this class, whether its performance, injury, or command, these next few weeks provide pitchers with the last chance to boost their draft stock.

If you enjoyed this please follow me on X/Twitter (@TimStats) for more content.

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Kade Anderson - LHP (LSU)

Coming off a National Championship with LSU, Anderson really boosted his stock following a strong NCAA tournament and Omaha performance and there seems to be a real possibility that he goes 1.1 to the Washington Nationals.

He has a clean, athletic delivery from a high-3/4 slot and works 93-94 on his 4-Seam topping out at 96.8 mph. It gets 19.4” of ride and 8.2” of run from a 6.1 release height. The pitch has been effective, yielding a 34.7 Whiff%. He pairs that with a hard 84-87 Slider, which has been is primary breaking ball, that has been up as high as 89.9 mph with -1” of IVB and 7” of HB with spin rates routinely north of 2700 rpms. His Curveball averages 79 mph with -15” of IVB and 11” of HB. He rounds it out with a low-80s Changeup that has generated a near 45 Whiff%. At 6-foot-1, 180 pounds there is still a lot of projection left for the lefty, and he could add a few ticks to his fastball has he continues to fill out his frame

Draft Range: Top 3; There has been significant buzz for Anderson at the top of the draft and it looks to be the most likely landing spot for him, if not 1.1 than 1.2 to the Angels, although there is an outside chance of him slipping out of the Top 3 if the Nationals pass, and the Angels prefer another college arm like Tennessee lefty Liam Doyle.

Jamie Arnold - LHP (Florida State)

Arnold started the year as the consensus SP1 in the draft and hasn’t really done much to hurt his stock, it’s just that strong seasons from Kade Anderson and Liam Doyle have muddied the conversation.

Arnold has a low-launch delivery from a 4.7 foot release height with some crossfire action to that creates deception with excellent extension down the mound. Arnold is primarily known for his sinker that sits 93-94 and tops out at 97.7, it gets nearly 18” of ASR and generated an astounding 55 GB%. He’ll also mix in a 4-Seam at similar a velocity with a little more ride and less run to offer batters a different look. His primary pitch this year has been his slider which averaged 85 mph, with 12” of Sweep, although he has shown the ability to manipulate the glove-side movement to vary looks, which can be helpful when facing a hitter a second or even third time, with the horizontal break ranging from 3” to 20”, it’s an effective pitch, with a 46.3 Whiff% on the year. Arnold’s Changeup made huge strides from 2024, going from a middling below-average pitch, to one of the biggest unicorn pitches in all of baseball. It averages 85-86 mph with an astonishing -4.5” of IVB!! and -8” of HB. During the 2025 season, Arnold experimented with a bridge cutter at 87 mph to help bridge the 4-Seam and Slider together.

Draft Range: Picks 3-10; Arnold hasn’t gotten much buzz for the Nationals or Angels picks so it seems like his first shot of coming off the board his with the Mariners, with the Cardinals seemingly the next destination with pick #5, if Arnold slides to the White Sox at #10, barring an absolute shocker pick in the top 10, I’d expect them to go with him as the BPA (Best Player Available) left on their board.

Liam Doyle - LHP (Tennessee)

After transferring to Tennessee from Ole Miss, Doyle saw a huge spike in his velocity which has helped him jump Day 2 pick to first-rounder. He throws his 4-Seam over 60% of the time to batters, it sits 95-97 with 19.5” of ride and -11” of HB, topping out at 100.4. It decimated batters all year long, with nearly a 40% Whiff rate and 30% Chase rate. He has a Slider at 82 that averages close to 10” of sweep and a Cutter around 87-88 that helps to bridge his 4-Seam and Slider together. He rounds out the arsenal with a Splitter that 87 with 2” of IVB and -10” of HB that got a 42 Whiff%. Doyle is the most pro-ready starting pitcher in this draft and has a good shot at being in the majors within a year.

Draft Range: 2-10; The Angels seem to be the most likely destination for Doyle given the Angels preference for near MLB ready guys in recent drafts, however there is speculation that Kade Anderson will be the pick at #2 if the Nationals opt to go with another player, in that case it seems like the Rockies are his next most likely destination.

Riley Quick (Rank: 5) - RHP - Alabama - 55 FV

After an elbow surgery cut his sophomore campaign short, Quick came into his draft year looking to establish himself and has been dominant so far. While the numbers haven’t been pretty against Power-4 opponents, the righty has the traits of a top-end starter which will make him a highly coveted come July. Quick has always had some command troubles, and while it looked promising early on, he is beginning to slip as of late, allowing 9 walks in his last 3 games (11 IP).

The standout pitch in his arsenal is his plus sinker, which sits 96-98, topping out at 99.4 MPH. He throws the pitch early and often for strikes, generating an impressive 71 FPS% (First Pitch Strike%). It's a great damage limiter with a 67.7 GB% and a Chase% of 28 which gives him the ability to pitch outside of the zone. The slider is a great secondary option and is an above-average pitch, flashing plus at times. It’s 85-86 with -2” IVB and 8” of sweep, generating whiffs at a rapid pace (39%). He’s got an average 4-Seam that he’ll sprinkle in to lefties as a way to neutralize the platoon advantages they have against his sinker. The changeup, while used almost exclusively to lefties, is a plus pitch. It generates an impressive 7.5” of vertical separation off the heater while maintaining 16” of run at 88-89 MPH. Quick recently added a cutter to his arsenal, following in the footsteps of Jamie Arnold, who recently introduced a cutter of his own. His cutter is around 92 MPH with 6” of IVB and -0.3” HB; it’s an above-average or better offering.

Gavin Kilen (Rank: 6) - 2B - Tennessee - 55 FV

Kilen was an interesting name to watch coming into 2025. A transfer from Louisville to Tennessee, the lefty had high expectations and has delivered on them so far. The hit tool was the shining part of Kilen's profile, whiffing at a 15.5% rate and just 6.4% in the zone. The glaring issue with Kilen was the aggressiveness, swinging at a whopping 55% of pitches, which led to a considerable amount of chase (37%). Kilen revamped his approach entering 2025, cutting the Swing% by 15, which cut his Chase% in half. The hit tool has stayed consistent, with his Whiff% hovering around 16%. However, against Power 4 opponents of late, Kilen has started to slip into old habits, with his Swing% and Chase% shooting up to around his 2024 levels. Kilen has undoubtedly done a lot for himself and figures to be selected in the top half of the first round. The swing and chase rates against stronger competition will be something to note as we head closer to July.

Patrick Forbes (Rank: 14) - RHP - Louisville - 50 FV

Forbes, a hard-throwing righty, sits 95-96 T100 MPH from a low-3/4 slot. While on the surface, Forbes' fastball may seem unassuming with 15" IVB and 15" HB, there are some significant variations in its movements; at times it can be more of a sinker shape, at 11" IVB and 16" HB, while other times it has more of a 17" IVB and 12" HB shape. Despite this, he releases from a relatively low 5.4 Release Height, which allows the fastball to play up with more of a rising look to it, the velocity also helps his case. Forbes has a slider; however, like the fastball, there are some significant variations in its shape, with the sweep ranging from -5" to -15" at 82 MPH. Despite this he is still able to get a solid Whiff% of 37 on the offering. Forbes has 2 more pitches: his cutter and changeup, which he has used sparingly this year. Both of their usages are under 5% and the majority of the cutters were thrown during his March 21st game against Virginia Tech. Forbes is a 1st round talent but will need to have some refinement done as he takes the next step. I'd look to tighten up his shapes, perhaps have a distinct 4-Seam and sinker shape, upping the cutter and the changeup usage as well as trying to focus on reducing the variation in sweep on his slider.

Kade Anderson (Rank: 19) - LHP - LSU - 50 FV

Kade Anderson's name has been circling MLB draft circles as a big up-arrow name that could shoot into the back half of the 1st round. Anderson, a draft-eligible sophomore, also made headlines last week, when he twirled a 135-pitch complete game shutout against then #10 Oklahoma, racking up a career-high 14 strikeouts. It's a projectable frame from the lefty at 6'2", 180 lbs with some room to pack on more weight and velocity. Primary fastball guy that averages 93 and tops 96; 20" IVB from a high-3/4 slot gives the pitch plenty of ride, generating 40 Whiff%, a substantial number for a fastball.

He has 2 breaking balls, a slider, which he throws often on the first pitch to steal strikes, with a FPS% of 71. It has good shape at -0.2" IVB and 6.8" HB at 85-86 MPH. I have some concerns that he is throwing it in the zone too much (55 Zone%), which led to below-average whiff numbers on the pitch. He generates enough chase on the pitch for it to still work, and could boost the whiff numbers up as he is above average in out-of-zone slider whiffs. The second breaking ball is his curveball, which he gets a ton of depth on at 77, with -15" IVB and 12 HB.

Lastly, his offspeed pitch is his changeup, which is a plus or better offering, generating an elite amount of vertical separation off the fastball, 12 inches of run at 83 MPH. It's a good pitch to keep the hitter on their toes and returned a 47 Whiff%.

Alex Lodise (Rank: 21) - SS - Florida State - 45+ FV

One of the biggest risers so far this season has been Alex Lodise; the righty shortstop has been on a tear this season. The batter you are getting with Lodise is a free-swinging power first bat that will rack up a ton of strikeouts. The power is plus with a 113 MaxEV and a 59 HardHit%. While the hit tool is below average, the whiff rates are still impressive given his free-swinging nature, and despite the high chase rates he still manages to make contact out of the zone at an above-average rate. With Lodise you are getting an athletic shortstop that will stick at the position in the next level.

Lodise will eventually need to tone down his aggressiveness as major league pitchers will learn to exploit; however, the glove keeps Lodise's floor high. While Lodise has been performing well against Power-4 opponents, they have exposed a weak spot of his, which has led to an increased rate of in-zone whiffs. Lodise is one of those interesting cases in the draft where he is ranked all over the place; I have seen placements from the 1st round, all the way to the 5th. He presents a certain amount of risk that scares some evaluators off, while others can look past those flaws because of the floor he has with his ability at short.

Scouting Report: Arnold is an athletic, 6-foot-1, 190-pound left-handed pitcher out of Tampa, Florida. Low launch delivery from a 4’4” release with some crossfire action that creates some deception down the mound with good extension out front. Arnold is a primary sinker pitcher that he occasionally runs up to 97 while sitting in the 93-95 range, he gets plenty of run on the pitch averaging 17 inches, hitting 20+ every so often. He’ll mix in a 4-Seam at times that can play well off the sinker, giving batters a different look and another weapon against righties on a pitch with more ride and less run. Arnold throws a hard slider at 84 with minimal drop and 14 inches of sweep that generates plenty of whiffs and can spot well, easily a plus pitch. The final pitch in Arnold’s arsenal is his changeup/splitter which has undergone a significant revamp during the offseason at Driveline. Whereas before the Changeup was a very middling pitch, having very little separation off of his sinker, it’s comfortably in extreme outlier territory with 9 inches of drop and 10 inches of “run”, essentially the equivalent of a two-plane breaker from a righty and will be a real tool in his arsenal moving forward.

Grades: 60 Fastball | 60 Slider | 70 Changeup

Draft Age: 21.3

B/T: L/L

HT: 6’ 1”

WT: 190

Position: Left-Handed Pitcher

2024 Stats: (11-3)/2.98 ERA/105.2 IP/159 SO/32.6 Whiff%

Arnold showed why he is one of the top pitchers available in this upcoming draft last weekend. Starting his campaign strong, the lefty silenced JMU through 6 strong in his season debut racking up 8K’s and only allowing a single hit. His tried and true sinker was solid at 93-94 with a 6/-18 movement profile. He paired that with a nasty slider at 84.5 MPH with half an inch of drop and some added sweep compared to 2024 at 14 inches, generating 7 whiffs over 13 swings for a 54 Whiff% on the day. Arnold utilized his secondary 4-Seam a fair amount at 93-94, mixing it in to play off the heavy sinker it topped out at 96 with solid ride for his slot and 16 inches of run. He debuted a new changeup/splitter with some insane outlier movement traits -8.5/-10 at 84-85 MPH although he only threw it 4 times during the outing. The arsenal here is impressive, let’s take another deeper look into it

Sinker:

The sinker is his primary fastball and the pitch Arnold is most known for, it has some pretty outlier characteristics given his low release with a pretty up-shoot pitch path and an absurd -4.4 VAA which is an outlier for his release. He gets under the pitch well generating solid backspin that leads to the flatter VAAs and some lift on the pitch. He spots it very well early in counts with an impressive 67.6 FPS% (First Pitch Strike%) well above the college average, allowing him to get ahead in counts early and often. It has found immense success last year limiting batters to a measly .218 xWOBA while generating a 32 Whiff% and 34.5 Chase%.

Four-Seam:

The 4-Seam is the complementary pitch to the sinker, and it is one he can land early and often for strikes as well, with a 63 FPS%. Normally, a sinker and 4-Seam combo are used as platoon fastballs since sinkers tend to play worse against opposite-handed hitters. Arnold’s sinker plays well enough to be serviceable against left-handed hitters, although when he does use the 4-Seam, he paints it up and away.

Slider:

Arnold has made some strides with his slider since his sophomore season adding about 2 inches of sweep while maintaining it’s velocity. It is an excellent pitch and a good weapon to both lefties and righties. He generates chases at a 37% clip with a Whiff% of 42. The control is immaculate painting it low and away to lefties while hammering the bottom of the zone against righties.

Changeup:

Arnold debuted his new changeup on opening day and immediately catapulted it from an average pitch to a plus-plus pitch. It has a mind-boggling -8.5 IVB and - 9.6 HB. It’s unheard of from a lefty and truly a unicorn pitch. Looking at the graph below we can see the average movement for pitches that had a similar arm angle to Arnold. It would be one of the furthest pitches from the average in MLB. Arnold only threw 4 times in the opener, but we can expect Arnold to use that weapon a lot more in the future.

Conclusion: Arnold is a very well rounded pitcher and will make the team that calls his name this summer very happy. His blend of pitches as well as the exceptional control will make him a coveted asset in the Draft. He does have some stiff competition however with more names to come in my the series.

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Grades: 60 Fastball, 70 Changeup, 55 Slider

Draft Age: 21.2

B/T: R./R

HT: 6’2”

WT: 190

Position: RHP

2024 Stats: (11-1)/2.54 ERA/88.2 IP/102 SO

Every new college baseball season brings an exciting crop of players vying for attention ahead of the 2025 MLB Draft. Prospect watchers, both professional and amateur, tune in during opening weekend to see who might ultimately be taken first overall this year by the Washington Nationals. In this series, we’ll take a data-driven approach to highlight the top players in college baseball. First up is Tyler Bremner, a 21-year-old right-handed pitcher from the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)

Bremner tosses a trio of pitches, highlighted by an elite fastball that sits at 94-96. He generates a ton of movement, averaging 14” of run and 19” IVB from a 5.9’ release. Overall, Bremner’s fastball grades out favorably in my TimStuff+ Model with a score of 113 It is expected that the shape should regress to approximately 17 IVB with the transition from the college to MLB ball. His changeup is the crown jewel of his arsenal. It sits in the low 80’s with plenty of vertical separation from his fastball and colossal arm-side run. Although it grades out as an average pitch in my stuff model, it has been heralded as a plus-plus weapon by evaluators thanks to how it plays off his fastball. The final pitch is a Slider in the mid 80’s 2 inches of ride and 4 inches of horizontal break at 2400 rpm, this offering grades out a 97 TimStuff+.

Bremner will be entering his junior year at UCSB and will look to follow up his impressive breakout sophomore campaign. He dominated the competition, taking a huge step forward from his freshman year where he posted a 5.37 ERA through 55.1 innings. He boasts one of the most intriguing three-pitch mixes in the country. Let’s take a closer look at each of them:

4-Seam:

Bremner’s 4-Seam is his primary pitch, and the second best weapon in his arsenal, it's great ride is the standout trait here. It has a FPS% (First Pitch Strike) of 50.8% hovering just above the average of 50%. The chase rate sits around 19.7% and Zone% at 53.7%. While the pitch doesn’t get much chase, it is still dominant while in the zone, sporting an above average 19.2 IZ-Whiff% (20.4% vs. RHH and 17.4% vs. LHH),aided by a Top-Third VAA of -3.9.

Changeup:

Bremnner’s Changeup is the signature pitch in his arsenal. The changeup has many good traits, the horizontal movement and vertical deviation from the 4-Seam really aids the pitch. He can zone it well, sporting a 41.2 Zone%, it generates plenty of value when thrown out of the zone, with a Chase% at 41%. The location is spot on, throwing it consistently low and hits the bottom half of the zone, generating ground balls at a 52.2% clip.

Slider:

Rounding out the arsenal is his slider. It's mostly an average pitch, but has flashed some positive results, mainly a 41.7 Chase% and a 36 Whiff%.

Suggestions:

Although Bremner is a good prospect, there are some changes I’d like to see from him that could make him even better. My first course of action would be to separate his slider to two different breaking ball shapes. Turning his current slider into more of a gyro shape with some increased velocity, I believe this will be more beneficial to his arsenal than his current shorter slider. The next course of action would be to get some more sweep and drop to his slider at the cost of some velocity, although there is some evidence to show that Bremner could maintain his current velocity on a more lateral moving pitch, or turn into more of a downer curveball to add some depth to the arsenal. Below is an example of an ideal pitch shape I’d like to get to, -4/-12 Sweeper at 86 MPH.

Conclusion:

It will be exciting to watch Bremner shove in 2025, and while it may be too early to decide who the first pick will be, Bremner’s name will be firmly in the mix along with some other players who will be featured in the upcoming weeks.

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