The jobs report blew past expectations, with 172,000 jobs added versus just 88,000 expected. April’s figures were also revised higher, from 115,000 to 179,000, while March’s payroll growth was updated to 214,000, marking the first monthly gain above 200,000 since early 2024.

Unfortunately, in the distorted economic environment we’ve been in since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, where good news is bad news and bad news is good news (at least for the financial markets), this much stronger-than-expected jobs report triggered a sharp selloff across nearly every asset class, including stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities, precious metals, and non-U.S. currencies while the U.S. dollar and the Volatility Index (VIX) were among the few to rise.

The Finviz heatmap below highlights Friday’s broad-based market selloff:

So I want to explain why a strong jobs report would cause asset prices, including stocks, to fall across the board instead of rise, as most people would expect. The reason is that, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis, global markets have become heavily reliant on—addicted to, really—low interest rates.

Rates can stay low when economic data and inflation are weak, but when both run hot, it raises the odds that the Fed and other central banks will pursue more hawkish policies, including hiking interest rates. Asset prices across the board tend to thrive in low-rate environments, but when the tide turns and the odds of rate hikes increase, assets from stocks to commodities tend to take it on the chin.

As the chart from the prediction market Polymarket shows, the odds of a U.S. rate hike in 2026 have risen significantly over the past month due to rising inflation expectations driven by higher energy costs stemming from the Iran war, and now the one-two punch of Friday’s much stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. A stronger economy and hotter inflation increase the likelihood of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which is why markets reacted so negatively to the jobs data.

As I said earlier, the U.S. dollar was one of the few beneficiaries of Friday’s developments, as the prospect of higher domestic interest rates relative to the rest of the world, along with the broader selloff in asset prices, led to a stronger dollar. In turn, a stronger dollar puts additional pressure on commodities and precious metals, since they are globally priced in dollars.

The chart below shows the U.S. Dollar Index, which as I frequently explain has been trading in a range over the past year between support at 96 and resistance at 100. Friday’s jobs report sent the index back up to test that 100 resistance level, which it has now tested seven times over the past year, failing to break above it each time before pulling back.

I am now watching closely to see whether the Dollar Index will once again fail at the critical 100 resistance level or finally break through it. If it fails and turns lower, that should provide a boost to commodities and precious metals, but if it breaks through decisively, it would likely put further downward pressure on them, at least in the short term. For that reason, the Dollar Index remains a key focus.

If you’d like to track the Dollar Index yourself, you can follow it using this free chart from Finviz.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals and the mining sector stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. In line with the broader financial markets, gold fell 3.3% on Friday after several quiet weeks of moving sideways.

Gold’s latest decline pushed it below the 200-day moving average, but I don’t put much weight on that alone, as I’ve often seen similar moves quickly reverse with the price climbing back above it. I place far more importance on the slope of the 200-day moving average when assessing the trend, and in gold’s case, it is still sloping upward, which is an encouraging sign.

What is more concerning is when an asset is trading below a downward-sloping 200-day moving average, as that signals a bearish bias—but that is not the case for gold at this time.

Gold has now spent roughly three weeks at oversold levels according to the Williams %R indicator, which often creates the conditions for a rebound when it occurs within an uptrend, as indicated by the upward-sloping 200-day moving average. That said, I would not try to catch a falling knife until it is clear that the selloff has exhausted itself and that gold has found solid support, which I’ll discuss next.

To better understand this analysis, I recommend reviewing my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.

As for the key support I’m watching in gold, it is the $4,300 to $4,600 zone, which formed at important peaks and lows over the past eight months. Friday’s decline pushed gold to the lower end of that zone, though it’s worth noting that several rebounds have occurred from this same area. Ideally, I would like to see that happen again.

If gold were to close decisively below $4,300, thereby breaking down through this support zone, I would adopt a more cautious stance for those engaged in short-term trading. That said, I firmly believe gold is still in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market, and that the correction which began in late January is simply a routine pullback of the kind that occurs in every powerful bull market.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Moving on to silver, it fell 8.27% on Friday but managed to close just above its 200-day moving average, which is still sloping upward. Silver has also been oversold for roughly three weeks, a condition that often sets the stage for a rebound when it occurs within an uptrend.

That said, as with gold, I would avoid trying to catch a falling knife until it is clear the selloff has exhausted itself and that silver has found solid support, which I’ll explain next.

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In my original report, I pointed out that triangle patterns were forming in both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the primary U.S. benchmark, and Brent crude oil, the main international benchmark. Triangle patterns like these are typically continuation patterns, meaning that once a breakout occurs, the asset tends to resume its primary trend, which in the case of oil is higher.

Although oil pulled back in late May, that does not invalidate my original thesis and simply expanded the lower boundary of the triangle. Importantly, no buy signal has been triggered yet, as I noted in my original report that confirmation would come only with an upside breakout from both the triangle pattern and the overhead resistance zone.

The chart of WTI crude oil still shows a clear triangle pattern forming, with the $112 to $120 zone as the key resistance to watch. A decisive breakout above both the triangle and this resistance zone is required to confirm the next leg higher.

You can track WTI crude oil prices on Finviz.com.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

Brent crude oil’s triangle pattern is still forming as well, and a breakout above both the pattern and the $116 to $120 resistance zone would signal that oil is likely about to move much higher. For maximum confirmation, I would ideally like to see both WTI and Brent break out in tandem, which would significantly strengthen the signal.

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As usual, we’ll start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. Although we are now four months into the multi-wave correction that began in late January, gold’s uptrend remains fully intact, as confirmed by the upward slope of the 200-day moving average. This means that despite the deeply negative investor sentiment, gold’s technical bias is still to the upside.

Over the past two weeks, gold reached deeply oversold levels according to the Williams %R indicator, and in an uptrend, that condition often serves as a signal that a rebound is ahead. Notably, the same setup occurred in March and April, after which gold staged rebounds.

As of Thursday and Friday, that rebound has begun, and I’m looking for follow-through in the coming week. However, it’s important to recognize that this market is heavily driven by Iran-related developments and is therefore highly volatile and choppy. Approval of a peace deal by President Trump would likely serve as a catalyst for a sharp move higher in the precious metals complex, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

To better understand today’s analysis, I recommend reviewing my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.

As a reminder, I believe gold is only about two years into a secular, or long-term, bull market that I expect to last at least a decade based on historical trends (learn more).

In my recent technical updates, I’ve also monitoring gold’s support zone between approximately $4,300 and $4,600, which formed at key peaks and lows over the past eight months.

Ideally, I would like to see gold hold above that zone and rally from there, and Thursday and Friday’s rebound from oversold levels may mark the start of that move.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Like gold, silver remains in an uptrend, as confirmed by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average, despite the correction since late January.

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In addition, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report on Thursday morning has the potential to move markets as another key inflation data point. While we wait for these developments, I’d like to share some interesting mining sector charts that I am keeping an eye on.

In addition to being bullish on precious metals themselves, I am also highly bullish on gold and silver miners, and I was positioned that way before they really took off in 2025. Unsurprisingly, after their sharp surge, they have been in a cooling-off period over the past few months, but that is normal and healthy behavior within a bull market that I expect to last at least another eight years based on historical precious metals and mining stock cycles.

I now want to show you the mining sector charts I’m watching, starting with the popular VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which I use as a proxy for the gold mining sector. From 2011 to 2024, GDX traded within a triangle pattern, compressing tighter over time as pressure steadily built before breaking out explosively and ultimately tripling. Despite the recent cooldown, this bull market is still very much alive and has much further to go, given the sheer magnitude of that 13-year-long triangle pattern.

A major resistance zone formed at the 2010–2011 highs, roughly $65 to $70, and ever since GDX smashed through that level in a strong show of strength, it has become a major support zone, or floor. Although GDX is still consolidating as it works off overbought conditions, the breakout remains intact as long as it holds above that support zone.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

Next, let’s look at the long-term chart of the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), which I use as a proxy for the silver mining sector. Similar to GDX, it broke out of a 14-year-long triangle pattern last spring, resulting in it tripling in price. Despite those impressive gains, the sheer magnitude of that triangle pattern implies that the bull market in silver miners still has many years ahead of it.

A major support and resistance zone formed at the 2011 highs, roughly $85 to $95, and SIL has pulled back to that zone during its recent correction. Ideally, I would like to see that support hold and for SIL to rebound from it, but even a brief dip below the zone would not be the end of the world.

Another chart I am closely watching is the ratio of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) to gold. The XAU is the oldest index of precious metals mining stocks, which is why I’m using it in this example. However, it is highly correlated with GDX, so the two can be used interchangeably for this type of analysis.

For the past thirteen years, the XAU-to-gold ratio has traded in a tight range between 0.04 and 0.09, but my bet is that when this ratio breaks out—and it’s not far away—that is when gold and silver miners will really take off and begin to outperform the metals themselves, as is typically the case once precious metals bull markets get seriously underway.

I also want to point out that the fact this breakout hasn’t occurred yet is, in itself, a sentiment indicator that the broader precious metals bull market is still in its early stages. Because mining stocks are more speculative and leveraged to the metals, their relatively subdued performance confirms that the sector remains largely ignored by Western investors, though I expect that to change as this bull market matures.

Another chart I find valuable is the real, or inflation-adjusted, Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, as it’s important to account for inflation when measuring true performance, especially over long periods. This also helps determine whether mining stocks are merely keeping pace with inflation or are actually generating real gains.

Starting in 1987, the real Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index entered a long-term downtrend, with a clear downtrend line acting as overhead resistance. What’s notable is that in the summer of 2025, the index finally broke above that resistance and continued to surge, a strong indication that the mining sector’s multi-decade stagnation has come to an end.

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As usual, we’ll start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. Despite the multi-wave correction that began in late January, its uptrend remains intact, as confirmed by the upward slope of the 200-day moving average. In other words, no technical damage has been done to the trend, and the bias remains to the upside.

After the shallow pullback over the past two weeks, gold is once again at oversold levels, as measured by the Williams %R indicator, and in an uptrend, that condition often serves as a signal that a rebound is ahead. Notably, the same setup occurred in March and April, after which gold staged rebounds.

To better understand today’s update, I recommend first reviewing my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.

As a reminder, I believe gold is only about two years into a secular, or long-term, bull market that I expect to last at least a decade based on historical trends (learn more).

In my recent technical updates, I’ve also highlighted gold’s support zone between approximately $4,300 and $4,600, which formed at key peaks and lows over the past eight months.

Ideally, I would like to see gold hold above that zone and rebound from there, and the near-oversold conditions increase the likelihood of that outcome.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

Moving on to silver, we can see that it also remains in an uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average, and the correction of recent months has done nothing to change that.

As with gold, silver is once again at oversold levels following the shallow pullback of the past two weeks, and in an uptrend, that often signals that a rebound is likely in the near term. For an example of this, note how silver rebounded after reaching oversold levels in March and April.

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I want to begin with the daily chart of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the main oil benchmark in the United States. Since its initial Iran war-induced spike from roughly $68 to $120 per barrel in early March, crude oil has been surprisingly calm, trading mostly around the $100 level. However, there is a real risk that this is merely a pause or consolidation before another leg higher.

It turns out that the consolidation of the past few months has formed a triangle pattern, and these patterns are often continuation patterns that resolve in the direction of the primary trend, which in this case is up. Of course, confirmation is still needed in the form of a decisive breakout above the triangle accompanied by strong volume (learn more about confirming breakouts with volume).

Assuming a breakout from the triangle does occur, I would also like to see crude oil close decisively above the $112 to $120 resistance zone that formed at the three peaks in March and April for added confirmation. The reason is that breakouts above horizontal resistance zones and levels tend to be more reliable than breakouts above diagonal resistance levels such as the top of the triangle.

You can track WTI crude oil prices on Finviz.com.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

Next, let’s take a look at the chart of Brent crude oil, which is the main international oil benchmark. Like WTI crude oil, it has also formed a triangle pattern over the past few months, and a decisive breakout from it would likely signal another leg higher.

Ideally, the most reliable scenario would be for both Brent and WTI crude oil to break out of their respective triangle patterns simultaneously, which would increase the probability that the breakout is genuine.

In addition to a breakout from the triangle, a decisive close above the $116 to $120 resistance zone that formed at the recent peaks would provide even further confirmation that Brent crude oil is about to surge once again.

You can track Brent crude oil prices on Finviz.com.

Now that we’ve discussed the technical setup, let’s turn to the major fundamental reason there could be another spike in oil prices ahead: global commercial oil inventories are shrinking rapidly, eroding the critical buffer that has prevented oil from surging even higher than it did at the start of the Iran war in early March.

As International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Monday regarding global oil inventories, “I think it is depleting very fast.” It will be “several weeks, but we should be aware of the fact that it is declining rapidly,” he said. He also said, “This could have major implications for the food prices and together with the higher energy prices they might give a big push to inflation numbers.”

Bloomberg recently published a harrowing chart from JPMorgan showing how sharply global oil inventories have dwindled since the start of the Iran war. Assuming no resolution to the conflict, the bank projects inventories falling to 7.6 billion barrels by June, a level considered the “operational stress level.”

If the war continues through September, inventories are projected to fall further to just 6.8 billion barrels, the so-called “operational floor level,” or the minimum required to keep pipelines functioning and refineries operating.

In other words, we are rapidly approaching the danger zone where a global energy crisis unfolds. It is plausible that this scenario is what the oil price triangle patterns I showed earlier are signaling.

Next, I want to show the long-term price chart of WTI crude oil to provide some perspective on where current oil prices stand relative to past cycles. At roughly $104 per barrel today, crude oil is near the upper end of its historical range going back to 1983, though it still remains well below the 2008 peak of $147 and the 2022 peak of $130.

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Starting with gold, we can see that it initially broke out of its channel pattern just as silver did before it, but Friday’s inflation panic caused that breakout to fail and pushed gold back into the channel:

As I explained on Monday, although gold broke out of its channel, I also wanted to see it surpass two additional major hurdles that were even more important: the $4,800 to $5,000 resistance zone and the $5,400 to $5,600 resistance zone.

Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones are typically more reliable than breakouts above diagonal trendlines such as the top of the channel, so I wanted to see those zones cleared for added confirmation.

After breaking out of the channel pattern, gold ran into resistance at the bottom of the $4,800 to $5,000 zone and then proceeded to fall back into the channel.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

Now that gold has fallen back into its channel, the next level I’m watching is the $4,500 support level that formed at the lows in late April and early May. In addition, key support and resistance levels in COMEX gold futures often form around $100 increments for psychological reasons and because those are major option strike prices where significant open interest typically congregates.

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Let’s start with the daily chart of COMEX copper futures, with the $6 to $6.50 resistance zone highlighted in blue. Over the past week, copper has surged and decisively broken through this zone, which had capped its progress over the past year. This breakout is a highly bullish signal that points to further gains in the near term.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

Further confirmation of COMEX copper futures’ breakout comes from the move in the world’s other major copper contract, London Metal Exchange Grade A Copper futures, which smashed through the $13,500 resistance level in Wednesday’s trading.

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I want to start by showing the chart of silver and its clean breakout from the triangle pattern that formed over the past few months:

Interestingly, gold’s chart shows a setup similar to silver’s, though instead of a triangle, a channel pattern formed during the correction of the past several months. In Monday’s trading, gold began breaking out of this channel, which is an encouraging sign, though I would like to see a stronger follow-through for full confirmation, which is likely to play out over the next few trading sessions.

Once gold has fully broken out of its channel, I’m watching two additional major hurdles: the $4,800 to $5,000 resistance zone and $5,400 to $5,600. Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones tend to be more reliable than those above diagonal trendlines like the top of the channel, so I would like to see these zones cleared for added confirmation.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

I would like to see gold close decisively above each resistance zone, and with each successive breakout, the odds of the next powerful leg higher will increase significantly. The final breakout above the $5,400 to $5,600, which formed at the late-January peak, is the most important, as it would signal that gold has once again entered blue-sky territory and that the correction of the past few months is fully behind it.

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Let’s start with the daily chart of silver to examine the triangle pattern and Friday’s breakout. As you can see, silver has clearly broken above the downtrend line connecting the late-February and mid-April peaks, signaling an important bullish change in trend.

Now that silver has broken above that downtrend line, I’m watching three additional major hurdles: the $80 to $85 resistance zone, $95 to $100, and finally $115 to $120. Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones are more reliable than breakouts above diagonal resistance lines like the top of the triangle pattern, so I would like to see those zones surpassed for added assurance.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

I would like to see silver close decisively above each resistance zone, and with each successive breakout, the odds of the next powerful leg higher will increase significantly. The final breakout above the $115 to $120 zone, which formed at the late-January peak, is the most important, as it would signal that silver has once again entered blue-sky territory and that the correction of the past few months is fully behind it.

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Put simply, this milestone signals that the debt burden has reached a level where it becomes much harder to grow out of. In an environment of higher interest rates, the system becomes increasingly sensitive to shocks, raising the risk of a fiscal crisis and policy responses that ultimately debase the currency, both of which are highly bullish for precious metals.

To start, I’d like to clarify the difference between total U.S. federal debt, or national debt, which is the more commonly cited figure, and publicly held U.S. federal debt, which economists focus on more closely when assessing fiscal conditions. This distinction is often misunderstood, so it is important to explain the differences.

Total U.S. federal debt, which is commonly cited on sites like USDebtClock.org, is roughly $8 trillion higher than publicly held U.S. federal debt. The reason for this difference is that the total figure includes both debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt, which is money the government owes to itself, such as obligations to the Social Security Trust Fund, Medicare Trust Fund, and other government accounts.

Publicly held debt, on the other hand, is held by actual market participants such as foreign governments (China, Japan, etc.), the U.S. Federal Reserve, banks, pension funds, mutual funds, and individual investors. Economists focus more closely on this measure because it reflects real borrowing from the market, the true financing pressure on the government, and the interest burden paid to external holders.

As shown in the chart below, total U.S. federal debt has reached an all-time high of $39.2 trillion, up nearly sevenfold from $5.77 trillion in 2000:

Despite being roughly $8 trillion lower than total federal debt, publicly held federal debt has also reached an all-time high of $31.27 trillion, representing a more than eightfold increase from $3.69 trillion in 2000:

As I explained earlier, economists focus more on publicly held U.S. federal debt rather than total debt because it provides a clearer picture of fiscal conditions and risks, including the potential for a sovereign debt crisis in which investors begin to jettison U.S. government bonds, driving yields sharply higher and setting off a destabilizing spiral.

The recent headlines about the national debt exceeding 100% of GDP refer specifically to publicly held U.S. federal debt. As of March 31, it stood at $31.265 trillion, while GDP over the preceding year was $31.216 trillion, putting the ratio at 100.2%, up from 99.5% at the end of the last fiscal year on September 30.

What makes this recent debt milestone so notable and concerning is that it marks the highest level since World War II (as shown in the chart below), when massive wartime spending drove the surge. At that time, however, the country was able to rapidly reduce the debt burden thanks to the powerful post-war economic boom that followed over the next several decades.

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With that in mind, I now want to draw your attention to silver’s weekly chart below, which shows that the correction that began in late January has been forming a triangle pattern, and when such patterns develop in bull markets, they are typically continuation patterns that lead to sharp upward moves once the correction and consolidation phase is complete.

For this bullish scenario to be validated, a decisive breakout from the pattern must occur, accompanied by heavy volume for additional confirmation (read my tutorial to learn more). Assuming that happens, silver’s bull market should resume, making fools of the naysayers, smashing through the $121 peak from January, and advancing to fresh all-time highs.

As I’ve previously explained, silver’s correction over the past few months was necessary to flush out excessive bullish speculative sentiment and overbought conditions, and now that it is no longer overbought, it is in a much healthier position for the bull market to resume:

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The gold and silver volatility indexes referred to here are the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index and the CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index, which measure the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility in gold and silver prices, respectively, based on options pricing for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), similar to how the VIX measures expected volatility for stocks.

When these volatility indexes reach extremely high levels, they signal emotional extremes where moves are becoming stretched and a reversal is likely. That is what occurred in late January, when I pointed out that precious metals were trading like meme stocks and urged caution for those trading, as opposed to long-term holding, especially when using leverage.

When the volatility indexes cool off and pull back, however, that typically reflects a period of consolidation and often precedes a significant breakout once the consolidation has run its course. In a bull market, declining volatility during a pullback often indicates that the correction is stabilizing, and that is exactly what is happening right now, as I will show in the next two charts.

The first chart shows the price of gold alongside the Gold Volatility Index and its 200-day moving average. Note how spikes in the index, such as in the spring of 2025, the fall of 2025, and January 2026, led to pullbacks or periods of consolidation as extreme bullish sentiment cooled, which is a healthy and normal pattern. That is how all markets function, and there is no escaping it, as I showed here.

Next, take a look at the lows in the Gold Volatility Index, as marked by the red arrows, and see how they align with lows in the price of gold. This behavior is especially pronounced during a strong uptrend in volatility, as indicated by the steep upward slope of the index’s 200-day moving average, which is the case right now.

Under these conditions, when the index pulls back to the 200-day moving average, it is a strong signal that the lows are likely in for both volatility and the price of gold, and that is what has occurred over the past few trading days.

Next, let’s take a look at the price of silver alongside the Silver Volatility Index and its 200-day moving average, where the same principles apply as in the prior chart of gold. Spikes in volatility, such as in the fall of 2025 and early 2026, typically lead to cool-off periods, while lows in volatility, particularly pullbacks to the 200-day moving average, often precede rallies in both volatility and the price of silver, which is the current setup.

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To better understand today’s update, I recommend first reviewing my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.

As usual, we’ll start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. Despite the multi-wave correction that began in late January, its uptrend remains fully intact, as confirmed by the upward slope of the 200-day moving average. In other words, no technical damage has been done to the trend, and the bias remains to the upside.

Interestingly, gold is approaching oversold levels, as measured by the Williams %R indicator, following the shallow pullback over the past week, and in an uptrend, that condition often serves as a reliable signal that a rebound is ahead. Notably, the same setup occurred in March, after which gold staged a rebound.

As a reminder, I believe gold is only about two years into a secular, or long-term, bull market that I expect to last at least a decade based on historical trends (learn more). Because of that outlook, I am not phased or discouraged whatsoever by the correction of the past few months, as I view it as a routine pullback of the kind that occurs in every bull market.

In my recent technical updates, I’ve also highlighted gold’s support zone between approximately $4,300 and $4,600, which formed at key peaks and lows over the past seven months.

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While many view that target as overly ambitious, Bank of America has stirred significant attention this week with a new projection for silver to soar to $135 to as high as $309 in 2026, this year, not years down the line. In this update, I want to examine the basis for their call and how realistic it is.

Bank of America’s aggressive silver price target is based on the gold-to-silver price ratio, which it expects to decline significantly from current levels as silver outperforms gold, a typical dynamic in precious metals bull markets. The ratio currently stands at 62, but the bank sees it falling to around 32 to match the 2011 low, and in a more bullish scenario, as low as 14 to match the 1980 low.

Assuming gold ends the year at $4,320, a level the bank used for a conservative estimate (with prices currently around $4,700), a gold-to-silver ratio of 32, the 2011 low, implies a silver price of about $135, while a ratio of 14, the 1980 low, yields the $309 figure.

I must note that over the course of this secular bull market I expect gold to hit at least $15,000 to $20,000 an ounce, so assuming gold at $15,000 an ounce, that implies silver at $469 using the 2011 ratio and a whopping $1,071 using the more aggressive 1980 ratio. While that may sound absurd, it is not, given the impending global debt crisis and the coming failure of fiat money worldwide.

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In last week’s update, I showed how copper broke out of an ascending triangle pattern a few months ago, marking the beginning of a bull market. That bullish signal remains fully intact despite the recent Iran war–related turbulence. Due to their close correlation, I also view copper’s breakout as further confirmation that silver is in a powerful bull market of its own, with many years still ahead.

I want to note that in the prior chart, I used London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures rather than the more commonly referenced COMEX futures in the U.S. This is because the Trump administration’s confusing July 2025 tariff rollout caused the COMEX contract to first surge and then plunge, distorting the chart (as you can see below) and making it harder to analyze. As a result, I shifted my focus to LME copper futures.

The LME copper futures contract is quoted in U.S. dollars per metric tonne, while the COMEX copper futures contract is quoted in U.S. dollars per pound.

While I have focused more on the London Metal Exchange copper contract for my analyses since last summer, I want to share an exciting setup I’m seeing in the more widely followed COMEX copper futures that has very bullish implications for both copper and silver once it plays out, which is likely soon.

In short, COMEX copper futures have stayed capped beneath the $6–$6.50 resistance zone since July, repeatedly pressing against it as pressure builds. My suspicion is that copper will soon break through, kicking off a new, vibrant phase of the bull market that will also be highly bullish for silver.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

The weekly chart of COMEX copper futures shows the bigger picture, including the $6 to $6.50 resistance zone directly overhead. If you’d like to follow this setup on your own, you can use this free chart from Finviz.

Not only has copper (particularly LME copper) recently kicked off a new bull market that I see lasting many more years, but silver has as well—and that is no coincidence, as the two metals are highly correlated (learn more).

In November, silver broke out of a massive cup and handle pattern that had been forming since the 1960s. Based on the sheer size of that pattern, it projects silver reaching several hundred dollars per ounce, with a minimum target range of $300 to $500 during this bull market.

Please note that despite the frustrating correction and turbulence over the past few months, silver’s breakout from the cup and handle pattern remains fully valid, as it continues to hold above the key $50 level that marked the top of the pattern. This is why it’s crucial to keep the bigger picture in mind.

To wrap up, I pay close attention to what copper is signaling about silver, as it often serves as a useful indicator. Right now, I’m watching COMEX copper futures, which are capped beneath the $6 to $6.50 resistance zone but are likely to break out soon. When that happens, I expect the next bullish phase for both copper and silver to begin. As always, I’ll keep you updated on what I’m seeing.

If you enjoyed today’s update, I recommend checking out my other related reports:

• Why Copper Is Set to Supercharge Silver’s Bull Market

• Why Silver Investors Should Pay Attention to Copper

• The Roadmap For Silver

• What My Proprietary Indicator Says About Silver

• Why It’s Still Early for Silver

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

As you are likely aware, precious metals and mining stocks have recently experienced turbulence related to the Iran war. I have maintained that this is a routine pause of the kind seen in every major bull market and successful investment throughout history (learn more). As is often the case, however, some commentators are using this turbulence to argue that the precious metals bull market is now over and that significant declines lie ahead for years, but I strongly disagree with that view.

One of the reasons why I am so bullish on precious metals and miners is the relentless expansion of the money supply, both in the U.S. and globally, and how that erodes the purchasing power of fiat (or “paper”) currencies, resulting in inflation. Precious metals are the best hedges against that over the long run, especially in the tough times I see ahead in which this fiat money regime that has existed since 1971 unravels.

With that in mind, in today’s report I want to check in on the global money supply, which has been growing at an alarming rate recently and is a major source of fuel for the secular precious metals bull market that began two years ago. With all the issues they cover, the mainstream financial media has consistently ignored this critical issue, which is the cause of so much hardship today, including the soaring cost of living, plunging birth rates, and growing despair, especially among younger generations.

Before we get started, I want to show you a chart of gold and silver over the past decade, including where I marked the start of the secular bull market in precious metals in April 2024. Remember that point in time, because it will come up again when I show you the charts of the U.S. and global money supply next.

Next, let’s take a look at the chart of the U.S. M2 money supply, which is one of the most widely followed measures of total currency in circulation. After a rare contraction in 2022 and 2023 due to the Fed reining in its balance sheet following the aggressive COVID pandemic-related stimulus programs, the money supply bottomed out in October 2023 and has since surged by nearly $2 trillion, or 10%, which is a large expansion for a non-crisis period.

I want to point out that the U.S. M2 money supply bottomed out just six months before the current secular bull market in precious metals began, and I believe that is no coincidence but one of the primary reasons why precious metals took off when they did. To learn more about the relationship between the money supply and precious metals, read this report I wrote in the fall.

One of the main conundrums of the post-pandemic economy is how inflation has remained stubbornly high, with central bankers, policymakers, economists, the media, investors, and ordinary people pointing to a wide range of causes, while virtually none have pointed to what is the true cause, the ongoing expansion of the money supply.

As Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” That means that even soaring oil prices, which we have seen recently due to the Iran war, are not the root cause of inflation over the long run; only monetary debasement is.

The stubborn post-pandemic inflation can clearly be seen in the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) chart, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which is running at nearly a 3% annual rate, almost 50% above the Fed’s 2% target. Amid all the hand-wringing over inflation, it is remarkable that practically nothing is being done to address the soaring money supply.

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As a reminder, silver remains in an uptrend, as indicated by its upward sloping 200-day moving average, which signals that momentum continues to favor the upside:

Now I want to show silver’s triangle pattern that many in the precious metals community have been discussing lately, especially since silver recently broke out of it, which is reason for optimism. This triangle pattern formed over the past couple of months as silver pulled back into the $60s after briefly touching $121 in late January, a correction that worked off the excessive froth, as I recently explained, and has now set the stage for the bull market to continue in a healthier, more sustainable manner.

A key feature of silver’s correction over the past few months is the downtrend line that formed the top of the triangle pattern, and silver’s breakout above that line represents an important bullish change in trend, indicating that the correction is most likely behind us now.

In order to feel even more confident that the correction is over, I would also like to see silver close above the $95 to $100 resistance zone that formed at the late February peak next, and then the $115 to $120 resistance zone that formed at the late January peak after that.

Breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones are more reliable than breakouts above diagonal resistance lines like the top of the triangle pattern, so I would like to see those zones surpassed for added assurance. Once that happens, I expect silver’s bull market to heat up significantly again, and I see silver surging to at least $300 to $500 over the course of this bull market, as I explained in this report.

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For those unfamiliar with the SSPI, it is an indicator I developed to confirm and anticipate price moves in silver by determining whether they are likely legitimate or false. What is unique about it is how closely it tracks the price of silver even though silver is not a component of it, as it is based only on gold and copper. To learn more about the SSPI, read this tutorial about it.

The main way I use the SSPI is as a confirmation tool. When silver makes a move, such as a rally, I look for the SSPI to make a similar move. If silver rallies but the SSPI does not follow, the likelihood increases that the move will fail or reverse (also known as a “bull trap.”) In simple terms, I want the SSPI to mirror silver’s moves, and when it does, I am more inclined to trust them.

With that being said, let’s take a look at the SSPI in the chart below to see what it is signaling about silver right now. First, note that the 200-day moving average is sloping upward, which means the SSPI is in an uptrend, and the bias remains to the upside, even after the pullback of the past two months. In addition, the SSPI is recovering nicely from the deeply oversold conditions reached in March.

(To better understand this type of analysis, I recommend reading my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.)

So here is what this means for silver: its upward bias is confirmed by the uptrend in the Synthetic Silver Price Index, which, as a reminder, does not include silver in its calculation and is based only on gold and copper. The principle behind this is that both metals strongly influence the price and trend of silver, and when they are in uptrends, that is supportive for silver as well.

Now I want to show you the chart of silver itself so you can see how closely it resembles the Synthetic Silver Price Index. Like the SSPI, silver is in an uptrend, as indicated by the upward-sloping 200-day moving average, which means the bias remains to the upside. In addition, silver is rebounding from the deeply oversold levels reached in March.

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To understand today’s update, I recommend first reviewing my two tutorials. The first explains how to identify and trade with the trend, and the second covers when to buy dips and sell rips.

Let’s start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. As I’ve been showing, gold remains in an uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average, and the March pullback did nothing to damage that trend. At the worst of the sell-off, gold became deeply oversold according to the Williams %R indicator plotted below the price chart, which indicated a high likelihood of a rebound, and that is what is happening now.

As a reminder, I believe gold is only about two years into a secular, or long-term, bull market that I expect to last at least a decade based on historical trends (learn more). Because of that outlook, the March pullback did not concern me, as I viewed it as a routine correction of the kind that occurs in every bull market.

In my updates over the past month, I’ve also highlighted gold’s support zone between approximately $4,300 and $4,600, which formed at key peaks and lows over the past six months.

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