STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,800+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward. Check out the Secretly Weekly playlist for the latest from SD labels and artists.

Does the music industry still invest in new music?

The music industry gets a lot of criticism for no longer backing new artists.

This month Thom Yorke blasted the industry for failing to invest in artist development, and ploughing money into catalog instead.

This feels true, so I wanted to see if I could find any data about it.

Are the major labels still signing artists? Do they still invest in artist development? And how much?

I pulled three data points to try and get closer to the answer:

• New signings: how many new artists have the major labels signed this year?

• A&R spend: how much are the major labels spending on artist costs?

• Industry estimates: what do industry organisations estimate?

Mapping the music industry: new artist development

1. New signings 2026

The major labels have signed a total of 124 new acts since the start of the year, according to the data we pulled from Rostr.

Universal is the most active, signing 46 new acts across all its labels. And the most prolific imprint in the whole industry is Atlantic (owned by Warner Music) which signed 19 new artists so far this year, including Barry Can’t Swim and Emei.

This seems to suggest that majors are still backing new artists, at a rate of nearly one new signing every day.

What we don’t know: deal terms and structures (singles, album, 360?), advance figures, commitment to long-term development. We haven’t tracked the rate-of-change (we don’t know if this is more or less signings than the same period last year).

2. A&R and artist costs

The majors are still signing acts, but how much are they spending? Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group are public companies, so we can look at their financial reports to estimate A&R spend.

Universal

UMG reported €5.83 billion in “artist costs paid” last year, which is where A&R and new artist development budget lives. However, that figure a little misleading and opaque.

We know that €402 million is artist advances (about 7%), which is more than double the previous year, so investing in new music rose substantially.

Beyond that, we don’t know exactly how the budget breaks down (e.g. how much is allocated to marketing, tour support, studio time, long-term artist development etc.) The €5.83 billion figure captures a huge umbrella of artists costs including (i) royalties paid to artists across the roster, (ii) signing and developing new acts and (iii) writedowns on unrecouped advances.

We can assume that (i) royalties paid to artists is almost certainly the largest expenditure in this bucket and likely well over 50%, leaving only a smaller cut for active new music development.

Warner

Warner reported $2.34 billion in artist and repertoire costs last year but this is also reported in a similarly opaque way to Universal. Warner’s A&R costs are spread across i) royalties paid to artists across the roster, (ii) signing and developing new acts and (iii) studio costs.

Again, we can assume that royalties are the biggest cost here, and active artist investment is a smaller slice.

3. Industry estimates

Given that labels don’t break down the specifics, several organisations have tried to drill down and estimate the industry’s actual spend on A&R, marketing and artist development.

• The IFPI estimates that labels spent $8.1 billion globally in A&R and marketing in 2024.

• The BPI estimates that UK labels spent £358.1m in A&R and £136.7m in marketing and promotion in 2021 (the most recent estimate).

Conclusion

Major labels are still signing artists (on a daily basis) and spending up to $8 billion a year on A&R and marketing, so there’s clearly a large artist development engine running.

However, we’re still left with a lot of questions. We don’t know whether those 124 new deals are long-term development commitments or short-term single spikes. We don’t really know how much money is allocated to new artists vs new music from legacy and superstar acts.

The data is quite hopeful (lots of resources and cash still committed to new music). However, like most data in the music industry, the big numbers don’t necessarily tell us the real story, like how much belief, trust and commitment is going into those artists for the long-term. That’s really the heart of the criticisms and unfortunately the raw data doesn’t give us an answer to that one.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,800+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward. Check out the Secretly Weekly playlist for the latest from SD labels and artists.

The rules for AI generated music are … confusing

Last month Tunecore announced it was banning AI generated music from its distribution platform. If you’re making 100% AI-generated music on “pirate studios” like Suno, you can no longer upload it to Spotify using Tunecore.

This sent me down a rabbit hole. What are the rules at other distributors? And how do the DSPs like Spotify and Apple Music handle AI music when it arrives?

The answer is confusing. There are no consistent clear rules at all.

• Sometimes AI music is banned. Sometimes it’s freely allowed.

• Sometimes you’re allowed a little bit of AI for vocals or drums … but not 100%.

• Sometimes it’s demonetized or blocked from playlists. Sometimes it appears in your recommendations.

• Sometimes it’s tagged publicly. Sometimes just internally.

• Sometimes you have to disclose AI use. Sometimes not.

There’s no unified framework

Almost every distributor, DSP and music platform has a different rule book, and rules are changing all the time. So today we’re mapping out the current landscape of AI rules from two angles.

• Part 1: The Distributors. Which distributors allow you to upload AI generated music, and what rules do they follow?

• Part 2: The DSPs - Which music platforms accept AI generated music, and how do they handle it?

And it’s tricky because no-one really knows whose responsibility it is to enforce the rules.

Part 1. Distributors

Strict 🔴

• CDBaby - The strictest of all distributors. Complete ban on generative AI, even for creative or partial use. AI is only allowed for limited production use like mixing and mastering.

• Tunecore - Tunecore will not accept 100% AI generated music. However, AI used in the creative process is allowed, so long as human creation is “clear, provable and dominant.”

• Identity Music - Bans fully AI generated music, and limits distribution for partially generated tracks.

• AWAL - Bans fully AI generated music and employs human review for partially-generated AI.

Allowed with disclosure 🟠

• Distrokid - Distrokid allows fully and partially generated AI tracks but now requires a disclosure.

• Too Lost - AI music is allowed but requires a disclosure and proof of commercial rights.

• Symphonic - Allowed but requires a disclosure.

• Soundcloud for Artists - Allowed but AI releases are flagged and require additional licensing docs.

• OneRPM - AI is permitted but artists must disclose how AI was used in the creative process.

• Roc Nation Distribution - Allowed with disclosure.

Allowed with limited distribution 🟠

• Amuse - AI generated music is allowed but Amuse restricts distribution to certain platforms such as Qobuz, Meta and YouTube Content ID due to risks over copyright, metadata complication and impersonation / takedown risk.

• United Masters - Allowed but limited distribution to Meta and TikTok.

• Routenote - Allowed but limited distribution to YouTube Content ID.

Fully permitted 🟢

• Ditto - Ditto’s policy is to pass through DSP rules to the artist. You can upload any AI music, but warns that DSPs may reject or demonetize now or in the future.

• ONCE - AI generated tracks are fully allowed as long as you have commercial rights. An extra charge is employed and the money goes to an “artist compensation fund.”

Note: our research largely focuses on the self-serve distributors that handle the long-tail of most artist uploads. Major label distribution and large independent distribution partners do not have public policies and rely on human review.

Part 2: DSPs and music platforms

Strict 🔴

• Bandcamp - Bandcamp is the only platform with a strict ban on AI generated music. It will not allow “music that is generated wholly or substantially by AI.”

Allowed but demonetized 🟠

• YouTube - AI generated music is allowed but YouTube will demonetize if it does not contain sufficient human creation, or if it violates copyright.

• Deezer - Fully AI generated music is publicly tagged, demonetized and removed from editorial and algorithmic playlists. Partially generated tracks are fine, and treated like normal music.

• Qobuz - AI generated music is allowed but will be demonetized and removed from editorial and recommended playlists.

Allowed but supressed 🟠

• Apple Music - In March, Apple Music introduced AI tagging, asking distributors and labels to indicate whether their uploads used AI generation. These tags are optional right now but will be mandatory in the future. Apple is using these tags to actively suppress AI-generated music out of editorial and algorithmic playlists. For this reason, we’re putting Apple Music slightly higher than Spotify in strictness.

Allowed but with some limits 🟢

• Spotify - Spotify introduced voluntary tagging via DDEX, and these will show up publicly in song credits if the artist or labels tags them during distribution. Spotify does not currently restrict AI music from its recommendation engine or playlists, but it does remove “spam” tracks.

• Soundcloud - Soundcloud has internal AI detection tags which it uses to filter out spam or bot-farms.

• Tidal - AI generated tracks are allowed but the artist takes liability for any copyright issues in the future.

• Audiomack - Audiomack does not appear to have a public policy on AI generated music. Some distributors claim that Audiomack may reject AI tracks, but there are definitely AI-generated tracks on the platform. We can’t verify publicly whether these are demonetized or suppressed.

AI rules continue to confuse …

As you can see, there’s no unified framework to follow yet. And it’s still not clear whether responsibility for detecting, policing and attributing AI music lies with the distributor, the DSP or someone else.

There’s a general trend towards increased transparency via tagging and disclosures. And there’s an increasing appetite to suppress and limit fully-generated AI music from discovery and playlists, but those rules are not universally applied yet. Decisions are still made on a platform-by-platform basis.

This confusion is a common theme. A few weeks back we mapped the AI music licensing landscape where the deals are equally chaotic with no uniform framework emerging yet. The music industry is collectively figuring this out in real time, and there are lots of open questions remaining.

All this research is done manually and the rules are changing rapidly, so if we got something wrong in this article please let us know and we’ll try to keep it up to date.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,700+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward. Check out the Secretly Weekly playlist for the latest from SD labels and artists.

The big music catalog deals are back.

Earlier this month, Sony Music Publishing spent $4 billion to acquire a huge chunk of music catalog (including Justin Bieber, Beyonce and Fleetwood Mac).

Days later, Warner Music bought Red Hot Chili Peppers’ recording catalog for $300 million.

These are crazy numbers.

So … where’s the money coming from?

The major labels are big, but even Sony doesn’t have $4 billion in cash lying around.

The truth is, there’s “quiet money” behind the scenes funding these deals: a web of sovereign wealth funds and private equity giants that love big, juicy music catalog deals.

Today we’ll map out where that “quiet money” comes from, and how it’s structured.

Major label expertise + investment firm money

As you can see, this money does not come solely from the record labels.

Instead, they partner with giant investment firms to fund these deals.

Sometimes they create a “joint venture” — a totally separate company that exists solely to invest in music catalog. Sometimes it’s a one-off deal for a specific artist catalog.

But the playbook is the same:

The investment fund provides the money. The record company brings the expertise, deal-making and manages the catalog. They work together.

For example, catalog acquisition company Chord Music Partners boss John Chapman described the early process of raising money for music catalog as “crawling through glass.” But after partnering with Universal Music: “It is just a clear, fundamental difference – a pipeline of opportunities that I see as a direct result of our partnership with UMG.”

These are MONSTER funds

To be clear, these are not your average investment funds from Silicon Valley.

These are the biggest of the biggest financial whales. For example:

• Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund (manages almost $1 trillion)

• Private equity firms like Bain Capital (war chests of $200 billion+)

These funds are interested in music catalog because it has a relatively safe, predictable return, via streaming royalties and performance royalties.

These type of funds do not take big risks like investing in new artists or new tech platforms.

This context will be important later.

So, who are the major labels’ “quiet money” partners?

Sony

Sony Music Publishing’s main partner is GIC, Singapore’s Sovereign Wealth fund, which manages Singapore’s foreign investments. The fund contributed $2-$3 billion to the recent joint venture which purchased catalog from Justin Bieber, Fleetwood Mac and Beyonce.

Sony also has a $700 million deal with Apollo, a US asset manager. This is a slightly different arrangement. It’s not a join venture, but a ring-fenced $700 million to invest in music catalog and share royalties. This money was put towards buying Queen’s catalog at a record $1.27 billion.

Warner Music Group

Warner’s main JV partner is Bain Capital, a private equity fund that manages $225 billion in assets. The JV has also borrowed money from Goldman Sachs and Fifth-Third Bank. Part of this cash was used last week to secure RHCP’s catalog.

Universal Music Group

Universal is a bit different. It partnered with a music catalog giant called Chord Music Partners. Chord Music Partners has raised a total of $2 billion from private equity firm KKR (now exited), family office Dundee Partners, and private equity firm Searchlight.

It’s not a pure “joint venture” like Warner and Sony. Instead, Universal joined later as partner, acquired a stake in Chord Music, invested $240m+ and now administers the catalog.

Investing in the past?

At first glance, these headline deals might feel quite depressing to anyone that lives on the edge of new music and culture.

It feels like record labels are investing in the past.

$4 billion to buy Fleetwood Mac and RHCP songs feels frustrating when that money could be spent on developing new artists.

But would that money ever go to new artists anyway?

I definitely sympathise with that view, but the counter-argument is …

When you follow the money, it’s clear that cash could never be spent on new artists.

The vast majority of this money comes from sovereign wealth funds and private equity. These funds have very strict rules on how they can invest. They can’t invest in speculative early-stage tech or creative artist development.

The only reason that money is flowing into the music industry is due to the stable, predictable, low-risk yield from catalog. It’s not “taken away” from new artists. It was never there in the first place.

A better question …

Sony can’t spend that $4 billion to break new artists. It’s structurally not possible.

But this giant catalog gives Sony a much stronger core business, and therefore gives them space to take more risks on future music development. Music catalog brings stability and generates predictable revenue for the business.

That should give the major labels confidence to go out and take bigger risks on the front-line records. It should give them breathing room to develop artists for longer.

That’s what I hope to see.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,700+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward. Check out the Secretly Weekly playlist for the latest from SD labels and artists.

The UK is undoubtedly one of the best places in the world for new music culture.

The birth place of Rough Trade.

Home to XL Records, EMI and so many foundational record labels.

But lately I’m getting the tingly feeling that London is also levelling up in terms of music tech.

Maybe I’m biased (we are UK-based!) but London is in a sweet spot right now where its music culture is colliding with a rapidly growing startup, tech and investment culture.

Today’s map is a quick glance at London’s music and tech scene. A highlight reel of record labels, music brands, and its emerging music tech startups. This map is by no means exhaustive, and should serve as a starting point to explore further. I’m sure I missed plenty - please feel free to comment or email me to let me know what we missed.

Record Labels

The UK’s influence on music culture is enormous. We could publish an entire report on our independent record label history … but here’s a taster.

• Decca - You can trace Universal Music Group’s all the way back to Decca, founded in 1929.

• EMI - Founded in London and now part of Universal Music Group.

• XL Recordings - Legendary indie label home to Adele, Radiohead, Prodigy.

• Beggars Group - The umbrella group for XL, 4AD, Matador and Rough Trade Records.

• Ninja Tune - Electronic music label (Bonobo, Roots Manuva)

• AWAL - Label services company, now part of Sony Music.

• Ministry of Sound - Iconic dance music brand.

• Rough Trade - The most famous independent record store, turned label.

More: Factory Records (Manchester, to be fair), Domino, Anjunadeep, Transgressive, Wichita, Black Butter, Communion, PMR, Bella Union, Chess Club.

Established Music Tech

London might not have the same music tech impact as New York and San Francisco but we’ve still produced some major companies in the last decade.

• Shazam - Music recognition app.

• Dolby - Soundsystem and sound technology.

• Mixcloud - For radio shows, DJs, mixtapes and curators.

• DICE - One of the leading live event platforms and apps.

Brands

These brands grew out of the UK’s independent music culture scenes.

• Boiler Room - DJ sets and live events.

• Sofar Sounds - Stripped back live sessions and events.

• NTS Radio - Independent radio broadcast.

• UKF - Underground electronic music channel.

More: RinseFM, Subsoul

Media

• BBC (Live Lounge, Radio 1, 1Xtra, 6Music)

• Music Business Worldwide

• Music Ally

• STVDIO (hi)

Startups

This is just a quick glance at some of the music tech startups building in London (or the broader UK) right now. It’s impossible to list them all, so do let me know what we missed.

• Mozart AI - Generative music AI platform.

• RoEx - AI music mastering and production tools.

• Serenade - Chart-compatible physical music merch.

• Un:hurd - Music marketing and promotion platform.

• Creds - Music licensing infrastructure.

• Spitfire Audio - Orchestral sample library (acquired by Splice)

• SYNTHO - Music production courses.

• Infinite Catalog - Royalties accounting and analytics.

• Audoo - Performance royalty platform.

• ROLI - Music hardware company (Seaboard and piano learning tools)

• Vochlea - Music hardware (turns your voice into MIDI)

• Monetunes - Unclaimed royalties platform.

• KLEF - Fan data capture.

• Curve Royalty Systems - Music royalty platform (acquired by Downtown)

• Voice Swap - AI voice swapping tool.

• Pirate.com - 700 studio rooms for DJs, podcasts and rehearsals.

• Musiqmesh - Catalog management.

• Audiogen - Research lab for AI music creation.

Investors

• Jukebox Ventures (currently deploying)

• Imaginary Ventures (Hook)

• Edge VC (ROLI, Pirate, Audioboom)

• Mercuri (Mozart AI, Resemble AI)

• Haatch Ventures (GigPig, RoEx)

• 528Hz (deploying)

• Tileyard

• AEI Ventures (UKF, SubSoul)

• Music Tech UK - The leading trade association and community for founders, investors and music tech startups.

Live

• Academy Music Group (AMG) - The company behind Academy music venues across the UK.

• Primary International - Leading UK live agent.

• Broadwick - Live music entertainment brand.

• GigPig - Live music booking platform.

• Amplead - Digital tools for festivals, venues, live agents.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music with deep visual reports. Helping 4,600+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward. Listen to the latest SD releases on the Secretly Weekly playlist.

For better or worse, music culture is often driven by platforms that push the boundaries of music copyright.

• Napster

• Soundcloud (bootleg remixes)

• DatPiff (ripped mixtapes and samples)

• Pirate radio

• YouTube takedowns

• TikTok (unlicensed brand UGC)

• MySpace

Technology always moves faster than copyright rules, and the music industry is always chasing to keep up.

The winners in this environment are often those who dare to push the limit furthest, while the ones who play by the rules often die.

Which is why absolutely no-one should be surprised about Suno.

Suno is the classic example of moving fast and asking forgiveness later. It is music history repeating itself.

Suno worth $5 billion … and still almost no licenses

Last week Suno announced a third major investment round, valuing the company at $5 billion.

I believe it’s now the fastest-growing music company in history (although private deals make it hard to say for certain). Whichever way you look at it, the numbers are wild.

• 100 million users in three years.

• On pace for $300 million annual revenue.

• 7 million songs generated every single day.

It’s the most disruptive and aggressive new model the industry has dealt with since piracy.

Suno is leagues ahead of any competitor. In terms of size, valuation, usage, and narrative dominance. And, despite all the lawsuits, it clearly has no trouble attracting investor capital.

How did Suno get so far ahead of everyone else? It’s all licensing (or lack of).

AI music licensing: where are we at?

Suno largely trained its music models on unlicensed music, claiming it as “fair use.” All three major labels launched lawsuits in retaliation but, to date, Suno has only settled with Warner Music. It has no other copyright deals or licensed libraries.

Compare that to everyone else in the market …

A patchwork of licensing deals

A large number of AI music companies are busy trying to “do the right thing” by negotiating deals with different rightsholders, or working with licensed music libraries to stay on the right side of the law.

Meanwhile, Suno is doing the opposite, and leaping ahead of everyone else. To explain this a little better, we can further differentiate the categories.

1. The “ask forgiveness” category

• Suno is in a league of its own in this category. They trained their models on copyright music without asking (allegedly ripping from YouTube). And, despite enormous lawsuits, they have only cut one deal with a major label (Warner).

2. The major label partner category

• Udio started out in the first category but when lawsuits landed at their door, they quickly cut deals with every big organisation except Sony Music Group. Udio was once Suno’s biggest competitor, but now it's changing its product to become a “walled garden” (users cannot download or export audio off the platform) and will deprecate old models.

• Spotify is planning a range of AI remix tools, and they went straight to all the majors and indie organisations to cut licensing deals in advance.

• Klay is a mysterious AI music model (that still hasn’t launched yet). But they’ve landed deals with all three major labels and reportedly working on AI remixing.

3. The indie-first category

• ElevenLabs took a different approach. They started out by going to the indie organisations (Merlin and Kobalt) to clear licensing deals. They also used big libraries of royalty-free and stock music catalog.

4. The royalty-free library category

• Ace-Step is an open source model trained on vast libraries of royalty-free stock music.

• Stable Audio also used large libraries of royalty-free music. Although it recently cut partner deals with Warner and Universal Music Group in late 2025 to boost its libraries.

• Other “ethical” platforms. There are many other smaller platforms that use different versions of “royalty-free” training. For example, they train models on compositions made by their team members or compensate artists directly for contributing songs for training.

5. Secret fifth thing …

• Google’s Lyria has a slightly unique approach. Google claims that its YouTube terms of service gives it the necessary rights to train music models. However, there’s no explicit wording in those agreements that covers AI music generation. Outside that, Google does has a limited AI licensing deal with Universal Music Group that covers some artists.

  ---

Why does it matter?

It matters because these early license decisions make a huge difference in who grows fastest, and who ultimately captures and controls the market. It effectively decides who has power to dictate terms and economics in the future.

Let’s explain …

1. Who has the best model?

The “best” model is subjective, but Suno’s is clearly powerful because it’s trained on the world’s biggest library of music across pop stars, indie artists and every possible genre. Suno’s model is therefore more advanced than others trained only on royalty-free stock music or limited indie catalogs.

2. This leads to the most users and growth scale

Because Suno’s model is advanced, it attracts the most users. People want to generate tracks that sound like The Weeknd, not elevator music.

Suno also allows downloading, exporting and sharing which triggers organic growth. Meanwhile, platforms that cut deals with the majors are restricted to a “walled garden” where they can’t take music off the platform. Their growth potential is cut off.

3. This leads to the most revenue and investment

When a platform attracts more users, it generates more revenue. That gives the company a higher multiple for valuation and attracts more investors.

4. This leads to more insulation from legal battles

The more investment they attract, the more they can spend to fight legal battles. Investors can underwrite the risk of prolonged lawsuits because the user-base is growing so quickly. The bigger and more ubiquitous a platform grows, the harder it is to regulate.

5. This leads to worse deals for artists and rightsholders

The longer this goes on, the bigger Suno gets. The more power and leverage it gains. The more people come to expect the speed and quality of AI output.

And this puts rightsholders (major labels, independent labels, and individual artists) on the back foot when negotiating terms. Ultimately this ends up with weaker economics for the artists.

Where have we seen this before?

If this all sounds familiar, it’s because it is! The music industry is very often defined and built by those who “ask for forgiveness.”

The streaming era

Napster is the biggest example of this approach. The piracy era was defined by platforms with no regard for copyright (or any other laws). Napster didn’t ask for permission, they just unleashed music on the new internet leaving the music industry in a panic.

History forgets that Napster wasn’t the only one. Dozens of other early platforms tried to do digital downloads “the right way,” by licensing indie catalog and trying to strike deals the majors. But they were denied. Or too slow. Their music catalog was too limited. They asked permission, and now no-one remembers who they are.

And while Napster didn’t win, it put all the major music companies into a position of weakness. The world now expected free access to music. So when Spotify came along with a legal solution, the music industry accepted weak economics which has defined the music industry since.

History repeats?

You can find dozens of these examples through music’s history.

• YouTube’s early growth was powered by its “upload anything” approach, only taking down songs when DMCA claims were made.

• Soundcloud and unlicensed remixes.

• DatPiff and unlicensed mixtapes and samples.

• Pirate radio that refused performance royalty licenses.

• UGC content on TikTok that bypassed sync licensing.

• Live Nation violating its anti-trust rules by forcing venues to use Ticketmaster.

Will the music industry learn?

The rapid rise of Suno is not surprising.

Tech does not slow down. And people will always push the boundaries of music copyright.

The prize for winning is a billion-dollar company. And the risk of “playing by the rules” means your company dies.

The only surprise is that the music industry is still surprised!

Somehow we’re blindsided. Still too slow to react. Still put our head in the sand and pretend it will go away. Ethical founders can’t get started. Indeed, multiple founders in the AI space have told me that they spent years trying and failing to get licenses with no response.

People trying to do things the “right way” get ignored, while those who cut corners get to shape the music industry.

Conclusion

It’s too soon to say whether Suno becomes Napster and gets lawyered out of existence. Or if they become YouTube and grow power and influence before finding a compromise with rightsholders (I think the latter, if I had to guess).

But there’s a structural problem here that I don’t really have a solution for, other than urging the industry to act with more urgency when new technology arises. To react with more open-mindedness and curiosity even if we don’t like where things are going. And to seek out those people who are building ethically and give them tools, licensing, sandboxes and support before it’s too late.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,500+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward.

Artists don’t own their audience

We live in a world where you can play a headline show but still have no idea who came to it.

You can spend years building a following on social media, but your new album announcement still only reaches 5% of your followers.

You can hit 100,000 monthly listeners on Spotify with no way to message them.

As musicians we feel these problems deeply: platforms or corporations own our audience and we can lose access to them at any moment.

Obviously I’m not the first person to tell you this. There’s endless hype around “owning your audience” and every artist knows they’re supposed to build a direct connection to their fans via email or SMS.

The problem is … no-one really tells you how to do it.

Direct to fan … but how??

Last week I spoke to the team at Laylo, a fan data tool that powers campaigns for Sabrina Carpenter, Skrillex and others, and I asked for their advice.

How do the best artists actually turn their fans into an owned audience? When are the key moments that convert the best? And how can smaller artists copy them?

Based on 200 million data points collected by Laylo, there are three clear hot-spots that jump out. Today we’re mapping them and listing some tools you can use to capitalize.

The tl;dr

1. Pre-release: the tease of new music creates a strong fomo moment to sign-up.

2. Passive conversions: You can collect steady and consistent fan sign-ups from your website or socials, but you can really accelerate this with a good incentive. (Note: Instagram has the best conversion - we’ll get into this later).

3. Tour cycle: The biggest and most powerful moment is the tour cycle, when the excitement and engagement with fans is the highest.

Let’s go through them all in more detail.

Quick caveat

Much of the data and case studies here come from relatively established artists. Of course, it’s easier to convert an owned audience when you have a large following and listener-base already. “Direct to fan” is not a single magical solution, as we’ve written plenty about, and it’s never as simple as replicating a bigger artists’ playbook.

However, this data still provides a lot of insight into fan behaviour which you can put into practice from the very earliest days to start building a foundation. We’ve also tried to give simplified variations if you’re in the early stages of your music career.

Hotspot 1. Before a Release

The anticipation before a release is the perfect moment to build a fan relationship. People love to hear unreleased music before anyone else so they’re much more likely to sign up. For example:

In 2025, Skrillex famously posted this picture …

The next day Skrillex sent the full 34 track album (on Dropbox!) to everyone who signed up, before the album was available on Spotify and streaming. It drove tens of thousands of sign-ups.

Not only did it convert fans into an “owned audience” it turned into a viral moment of its own through organic sharing and fomo.

Obviously, if you’re Skrillex, you can tease anything and drive sign-ups. But the same structure still applies for smaller independent musicians.

How to do it:

• Rather than doing a Spotify pre-save campaign you can give fans early access to music in exchange for a phone number or email. Even if it’s only ten people, make sure those fans hear it first.

• Offer unreleased audio, remixes, demos, acoustic or different versions of the track as a teaser incentive to subscribe.

• Host listening parties with an RSVP to hear new music before wide release.

Key tools:

• Laylo (drops feature)

• OpenStage

• B.Stage

• EVEN (early access to music)

• Vault.fm (drop exclusive music)

• Forever Fan

Hotspot 2. “Always-on” sign-ups (Instagram is powerful)

Most artists have a passive sign-up form. Maybe a LinkTree signup or a website form for emails.

However, you can dramatically increase its effectiveness by linking it to an incentive. According to Laylo, sign-ups are 7x stronger when linked to an incentive, drop or call-to-action. A basic landing page or sign-up form might not be strong enough. So make sure you give fans a reason to join your world!

The power of Instagram?

Instagram is a surprising winner for capturing passive sign-ups, giving you the fastest route to convert your social audience into an “owned audience.”

For example, Sombr recently collected 45,000 signups from a single Instagram Story. According to Luminate’s recent report, Instagram has the highest concentration of actively-engaged music superfans, and fans on IG are more likely to convert than TikTok. Instagram is also better set-up to capture fans via bio links and dms.

How to do it:

• Always have an email or SMS sign-up visible on your bios and website (ideally linked to an incentive such as exclusive music, merch reward, presale or early access).

• Make sure you always have a fan-capture tool clearly visible on your Instagram profile, and regularly post in your Story flow.

Tools:

• Substack

• Bandzoogle (basic artist landing page)

• Bandcamp (free track in exchange for email)

• Linktree (basic link-in-bio page)

• Laylo + Instagram (advanced capture can even trigger auto-dms to fans that engage with you on IG prompting them to sign up)

• Openstage Fanbase API (create an entire branded website and experience to covert fans).

Hotspot 3. Live events and touring

However … the most important moment (by far) is your live shows.

Laylo says 70% of fan list growth happens during tour cycles. This makes sense. Live shows are the point of most excitement and most engagement. Plus there are lots of “moments” to capture fans: tour announcements, RSVPs, presales, ticket sales and the show itself.

Capturing fans at the show

One of the biggest new routes to capture fans is at the live event itself. Artists notoriously capture little or no information about who’s at their shows, but that’s starting to change. Here are some recent examples:

• Japanese Breakfast - the indie pop band place a QR code in the venue that fans can scan to win a signed postcard or a merch bundle. It’s capturing hundreds of phone numbers and emails every night, all routed back to their fan management platform.

• Mount Joy - Mount Joy did a similar thing, where one fan who scans the QR code at the venue gets to watch the band from the side of the stage.

• Alicia Keys - gave away signed set lists on her recent US tour, generating 31,500 email sign-ups over the two month tour.

• Corey Kent - the country star generated 75,000 sign-ups with the same strategy.

They’re doing this with a tool called Set.live to power the QR code. Then linking all the emails and phone numbers to fan platforms like OpenStage or Laylo.

What about smaller artists?

Of course, when you’re playing 6,000 cap venues like Corey Kent, it’s easy to drive a lot of conversions. But even as a small artist you can still capitalize on any live event.

1. Use RSVPs to capture anyone with intent to come to a show.

2. If you’re hosting a show or pop-up, use a service like ITM where you keep all emails and data of attendees.

3. Use QR codes to capture fans at the show, whether it’s a support slot, local festival, pop-up, street performance or headliner.

Combine these live moments with a strong call-to-action (like free merch or exclusive content opportunities) you massively increase the chance of converting those early fans to your owned audience.

Tools:

• Set.Live - powers live experience QR codes (integrates with fan management tools OpenStage and Laylo).

• ITM - powers tickets, RSVPs, merch all in one platform with complete visibility into attendees.

• Dice - digital ticketing with fan insights.

• Laylo - Ticket drop links and RSVPs.

• Vault.fm - Ticket drops

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,500+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward.

This week BMG merged with Concord.

Some are calling it the “fourth major label” … which isn’t 100% accurate.

However, it is the biggest music acquisition of the year and, although exact figures are not public, it values the Concord takeover at ~$7 billion, making it one of the biggest music industry deals in history (rivalling EMI’s $6.6 billion takeover in 2007).

Operating under the name BMG, this deal will create the fourth biggest music company on the planet, behind Universal Music Group, Warner Music and Sony.

Today we’ll map out exactly what happened in this merger, whether it counts as the “fourth major” and a quick analysis about what it means for the music industry.

Primer: publishing vs recording

To understand much of this analysis, you need to know the difference between music recording rights and music publishing rights.

• Recorded music - The actual recording of a song. The version you export from your DAW and upload to Spotify. You generate recording royalties when it gets streamed or bought (digital download or vinyl, etc.)

• Publishing - The composition of the song. The lyrics, the notes, the essence of the song in whatever format. You generate publishing royalties on this when it gets played in public, on TV, film and video games, or covered by another musician.

There’s some crossover — for example, you earn a small amount of publishing revenue when your music is streamed on Spotify.

The BMG Concord merger primarily weights towards publishing which is why it doesn’t necessarily create a “fourth major label.”

Two independent giants

To begin we’ll explain BMG and Concord as separate entities.

BMG

BMG is one of the world’s biggest music publishers, with a 7% global share of publishing catalog. Although it’s corporate-owned by German media company Bertelsmann, it’s considered “independent” because it’s outside the three major label machines and it doesn’t really compete on releasing new records (<1% global recorded music share). So what does it own?

• Publishing: BMG’s publishing catalog includes Bebe Rexha, Bruno Mars, John Legend, Lewis Capaldi, Rolling Stones and Tina Turner.

• Recording: BMG does operate a record label and owns several label imprints including BBR Music Group, Rise Records, Sanctuary Records, Telamo, Trojan Records, World Circuit Records.

  • Artists across the roster include: Blondie, Kylie Minogue, Chief Keef, Rita Ora, Placebo, Alt J, Iron Maiden.

• Infrastructure and tech: BMG has its own distribution engine and deals with Spotify, Apple Music etc. It also has a deep in house sync-licensing team to place music in films and TV.

Concord

Concord refers to itself as the “world’s leading independent music company.” Like BMG, it’s home to a monster catalog of publishing rights with over a million works (approximately ~5% of global publishing share).

Concord is also home to several front-line record labels, (about ~1.8% global recorded music share - moreso than than BMG).

• Publishing: Concord’s publishing catalog includes Daft Punk, The 1975, Imagine Dragons, REM, John Coltrane, as well as theatrical rights to Hamilton and The Sound of Music.

• Recording: Concord owns approximately 31 label imprints in total including Ninja Tune, Fearless Records, Rounder Records and its own Concord Records.

  • Artists: Denzel Curry, St. Vincent, Iggy Pop, Bonobo, Bicep.

• Infrastructure and tech: Concord also owns a distribution service called Stem.

What does the new merger look like?

This is a very pure “merge”. The two companies will combine all their catalog and resources, but house them under new names:

• BMG Publishing: All publishing rights from BMG and Concord will merge under “BMG Publishing.”

• Concord Recordings: All recording rights from both companies will merge under “Concord Records.”

• Infrastructure: Both companies will share underlying infrastructure and tech including their distribution, accounting, AI licensing, sync licensing etc.

Is this the “fourth major”?

Yes and no.

🟢 Yes: The new BMG absolutely rivals the majors in terms of publishing catalog. The combined entity gives BMG approximately 12% global share of publishing - which is roughly equal to Warner Chappell.

🟠 Not really: In terms of revenue, BMG is projected to make $2 billion annually. That’s less than Warner’s ~$6.5 billion, and much less than UMG and Sony’s ~$10-$12 billion.

🔴 No: BMG’s front-line recording business is tiny by comparison to the major labels. BMG (0.85% global share) and Concord (1.8% share) has a combined market of ~2.6%. That’s compared to Universal at 37.48%, Sony at 25.92%, Warner at 16.43%.

It is accurate to say BMG is now the fourth largest music company, and significantly bigger than any other independent music group, but it still sits in a category below the majors in terms of sheer size. And it’s not really correct to call it a “major label” since is commands a comparatively tiny segment of recording rights.

What does this mean for the music industry?

It’s hard to say at this point and we’ll avoid too much speculation.

Positives? This deal likely gives the independent music sector a stronger, united voice in terms of leveraging deals with DSPs and AI licensing. Having the weight of BMG alongside Merlin in the negotiating room helps balance out the loud voices of the three majors.

It may also give the independent sector more weight in terms of securing deals. With its new resources, BMG can hold its own against the majors and keep more deals independent. It may give the label imprints like Ninja Tune more capital and firepower to sign deals.

Downsides? It does continue our trend of music industry consolidation. Music businesses are being absorbed into larger corporate entities at a fast rate. Take Ninja Tune - a fully independent label six months ago - acquired by Concord, then merged into a $14 billion dollar entity. Not necessarily a bad thing (by all accounts Concord imprints still operate with full independence). But is this crowding out diversity of music ownership? Will it bid up deal prices? Consolidate opportunities for sync licensing and general routes to market?

I think it’s too early to say for sure, so we’ll leave today’s analysis with the broad merger specifics and keep watching how this develops!

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email at benjamin@stvdio.io. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO maps the future of music. Helping 4,150+ artists, music industry professionals and founders navigate music industry shifts with weekly visual maps.

Supported by Secretly Distribution: For more than 25 years, Secretly Distribution (SD) has been enabling independents to challenge the mainstream. SD is not only a full-service global physical and digital music distributor, but it also provides hands-on marketing, financial and technological support to some of the most exciting record labels and artists across geographies and genres. By supporting businesses who are self-reliant by choice, not just necessity, SD champions the musicians and creative works that drive culture forward.

Meet Secretly

I still remember the first time I pressed play on Bon Iver’s debut record “For Emma, For Ever Ago.”

It was the first cold and crisp morning of September. I’d just moved away from home to start university and I was walking around lost in a strange city in the north of England.

Feeling kind of lonely, I put my headphones on and pressed play on a new record my friend sent me. The rusty chords of Flume start playing and then Justin’s haunted, layered voice starts singing.

It was one of those rare transcendent moments. A core memory preserved in every small detail. To this day, when I listen to that record, I am immediately 17 again lost in a new city in the cold.

This is the power of music.

I’ve had so many of these moments over the years. The first time I saw Yeah Yeah Yeahs play live and immediately buying a beat-up guitar. My first job at a radio station playing Phoebe Bridgers’ first single. Or driving 400 miles with War on Drugs on repeat.

There’s one thread that links all these moments:

Secretly.

The umbrella term for Secretly Group and its affiliates, Secretly is one of the last remaining groups of truly independent music companies, comprising record labels, a music publisher and a distributor behind some of the biggest indie artists of the last 20 years touching releases from Bon Iver, Bright Eyes, War on Drugs, Sufjan Stevens, Phoebe Bridgers, Caribou and Yeah Yeah Yeahs. And, according to the latest Luminate report, Secretly Distribution is now the largest independent distributor in the US market.

And I’m excited to say:

STVDIO is now supported by Secretly Distribution.

We are partnering with the group’s distribution arm Secretly Distribution for the next quarter. We’ll also publish a co-branded industry report on the independent music sector which you can look for in the next month or so.

Not only does Secretly distribute incredible records, but the company is passionate about preserving independent music infrastructure. Co-founder Darius Van Arman has written several powerful essays recently that capture the challenges facing independent music companies in 2026

• The Struggle for Independence in the Modern Age: “My sincere hope is that independent music businesses everywhere will realize what is stake and will step up their collective efforts to keep music open.”

• Rise of the Music Making Machines: “In the creative world, the key question becomes where to draw the line between AI supporting creatives and AI replacing them … As independents, we will respect artists’ rights to give consent is fundamental. It means having the artists’ backs.”

With all that in mind, let’s map out how this web of incredible independent music all fits together.

Mapping the Secretly Ecosystem

Secretly is home to four record label companies (two of them being proper label groups), a music publishing company, a distributor for more than 100 partner labels, as well as label services, and physical distribution partnerships. Secretly has also recently acquired data tools to ensure the independence of music’s backend infrastructure.

Today we’re mapping it all so you can follow the rabbit hole of music discovery via Secretly’s ecosystem and the artists they serve. Let’s start with the Secretly labels and publishing.

1. The Record Labels

Secretly Group

• Secretly Canadian: The War on Drugs, Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Jens Lekman, Hatchie, Faye Webster.

• Jagjaguwar: Bon Iver, Sharon Van Etten, Dinosaur Jr., Angel Olsen, Unknown Mortal Orchestra.

• Dead Oceans: Phoebe Bridgers, Toro y Moi, Mitski, Durand Jones & the Indications, Khruangbin.

All Flowers Group

A label group formed by Secretly and Ghostly International.

• Ghostly International: Tycho, Gold Panda, Com Truise, Ginger Root.

• Sacred Bones: David Lynch, Zola Jesus, Marissa Nadler, Molchat Doma.

• drink sum wtr: Deem Spencer, Aja Monet, Annahstasia.

Merge Records

Secretly Group acquired 50% of Merge Records in 2025. Artists include Waxahatchee, Neutral Milk Hotel, Caribou, Arcade Fire.

Numero Group

Primarily a reissue label. Artists and releases include Duster, Eccentric Soul series, Syl Johnson.

2. Secretly Publishing

Secretly Publishing has a roster of 2,500 songwriters and artists including Japanese Breakfast, Dhruv, Grizzly Bear and Wednesday. It also handles publishing admin for Merge Publishing, Ghostly Songs, Sacred Bones Publishing and Songs of Numero Group. Secretly Publishing represents writer shares on songs performed by Solange, J Cole, Common, Pusha T, Lizzo, Maggie Rogers, Vampire Weekend, Snoop Dogg, Jay Z, Kanye West, Phantogram and more.

3. Secretly Distribution + Label Services

Secretly also partners with over a hundred independent labels to provide distribution services. This section is not exhaustive but a snapshot of some of my favourite labels and their releases. Treat it as a starting point to go deeper into these labels.

• Asthmatic Kitty: Sufjan Stevens, Angelo De Augustine.

• Captured Tracks: Lemon Twigs, Widowspeak, Craft Spells, early Mac DeMarco.

• Arbutus Records: Braids, Public Appeal.

• Rhymesayers: MFDoom, Aesop Rock.

• DFA: Shit Robot, LCD Soundsystem .

• Third Man Records: Jack White, Belair Lip Bombs.

• Joyful Noise: Deerhoof.

• Ipecac: Melvins, Mclusky.

• Awesome Tapes From Africa: Hailu Mergia.

• Psychic Hotline: Sylvan Esso, Reyna Tropical.

• No Quarter: Bonnie Prince Billy, Joan Shelley.

• Jazz Is Dead: Adrian Younge, Ali Shaheed Muhammed.

• Oh Boy: John Prine, Swamp Dogg.

• Bayonet: Beach Fossils, Mei Seimones.

• Colemine: Pale Jay, Joey Quiñoñes.

• Bar/None: Front Bottoms, Ivy, The Feelies, Alex Chilton.

• No Coincidence: Goose, The Oh Hellos.

• Windstar: John Denver.

• Single Lock: The Blind Boys of Alabama, St. Paul & The Broken Bones.

• Touch and Go: early TV on the Radio, Slint, Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Blonde Redhead.

• Suicide Squeeze: This Will Destroy You, Minus the Bear.

• Moshi Moshi: Anna Meredith, Teleman, early Hot Chip.

• Temporary Residence: Mogwai, Explosions in the Sky.

• Winspear: Slow Pulp

• Cascine: Teen Daze.

• Run for Cover: Turnover, Modern Baseball.

• Smalltown Supersound: Barker.

5. Label services

Secretly Distribution also provides marketing and label services for a handful of acts, including:

• Hayley Williams

• Pond

• David Gray

• Crumb

• Rostam

• Beirut

• Marlon Williams

• Devendra Banhart

6. Infrastucture

• Cargo Independent Distribution - In 2024, Secretly Distribution partnered with Beggars Group to invest in Cargo Records UK, creating Cargo Independent Distribution, a truly independent physical route to market in the U.K. and Ireland. (This was created after PIAS was acquired by Universal.)

• Babel Ops and Entertainment Intelligence - in 2026, Secretly Distribution acquired Babel Ops and Entertainment Intelligence. Babel Ops specializes in software and technology solutions for independent labels and distributors. Entertainment Intelligence provides streaming data analytics to leading independent music companies, including Partisan Records, Exceleration Music (Redeye), Reservoir, Many Hats Endeavors, Secret City Records, as well as all of the labels and artists distributed by Secretly Distribution.

Preserving independent routes to market

One thing is noticeable throughout the entire Secretly ecosystem: the group is set up to celebrate and preserve independent routes to market at every stage. Not just through its record label catalog, but through its distribution ecosystem (which does not run through any major label or corporate-owned servers), its publishing administration, physical distribution, and more recently its data analytics acquisitions. It’s an increasingly rare approach to the music industry, and one we should celebrate.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 4,000+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music industry trends and behavioural shifts.

Every week we send you a music map on where the music industry is going. Today we’re looking at why a hedge fund wants to buy Universal Music Group. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

Universal Music Group has a new potential buyer …

This week a US hedge fund submitted a takeover proposal to acquire Universal Music in a deal worth $64 billion.

If the deal goes through, Pershing Square Capital, led by billionaire investor Bill Ackman, will increase its control over the world’s largest record label.

And it would change the music industry … again.

Does it really matter?

You could argue that it makes no difference who owns UMG. Universal has had several different corporate owners since the 1960s. Artists and music fans have always complained about billionaires interfering with music. So, what’s new?

Well … this one is different.

Hedge fund control is fundamentally different to anything that came before.

And I will try to explain why without just saying “Wall Street is bad.”

The simple version is that every previous owner of Universal Music had an incentive to protect and develop new music culture.

A hedge fund does not.

Hedge funds are solely driven by financial outcomes. And it can achieve those financial outcomes by aggressively exploiting old catalog at the expense of new music culture.

That’s the main issue, and the reason the takeover should be blocked.

Who owns Universal music … and why?

To explain further, let’s travel back through time and map out the previous owners of Universal Music Group and their incentives.

It’s actually quite interesting.

The battle for influence and control over UMG tells you everything you need to know about the music industry at that moment in time.

With this new ownership proposal, we are firmly entering the “music financial asset” era, where streaming economics have turned music into an “asset class” to be monetized.

But let’s explain how we got here …

1. The pure music era (Decca)

The origins of Universal Music go back to Decca Records, a legendary record label that worked with Billie Holiday, Louis Armstrong, Johnny Cash, Buddy Holly, The Rolling Stones and The Who.

No big corporate ownership yet. Just a record label putting out great music.

2. The TV Entertainment Era (MCA)

In 1962, Decca was acquired by MCA — one of America’s earliest TV production companies. MCA gained influence over music just in time for the mainstream TV era, when music videos, live events, and eventually the MTV pop-culture moment exploded.

This was the first hint of larger corporations wanting control of the entire music pipeline. Not just records, but how they reach listeners.

3. The hardware era (Panasonic)

In 1990 Panasonic acquired MCA (under its original corporate name Matsushita Electric Industrial).

This was the peak of hardware music distribution with CDs, cassettes, minidisc players and headphones. Hardware companies wanted a closer relationship with the music and content that powered their hardware sales.

4. The brand deals era (Seagram)

By the mid 1990s, music was now fully established as a multi-media cultural influence. Big brands were fighting to get product placements and association with artists and music culture.

In 1995, a Canadian liquor brand, Seagram, decided to build its own media empire, acquiring 80% of MCA from Panasonic and turned the music assets into the name we know today: Universal Music Group.

5. The corporate media era (Vivendi)

Seagram’s ownership also only lasted five years before a much bigger whale came along. French telecom giant Vivendi acquired Universal Music in 2000. Vivendi was a corporate media monster, controlling TV, film, music and telecoms networks.

In other words, the wanted to own it all (content, distribution, and the networks you consume it on). Music was rolled up into mobile plans, ringtones, and early data deals.

6. The tech era (Tencent)

Fast forward to 2020, and digital streaming and social media distribution was now the dominant music channel. Chinese tech company Tencent started building a stake in Universal Music Group, acquiring 20% of the business by 2021.

Tencent used its ownership stake to integrate music culture and UMG artists across its social apps, which reach 1 billion+ people.

6. The music financial asset era (Pershing Capital)

And this brings us full circle to this week’s news. Now, a Wall Street hedge fund now wants control of Universal Music.

But why?

What does a hedge fund gain by controlling, accessing or influencing music culture?

Nothing. Their incentive is very different:

Previous owners saw UMG as a creative music partner to support their other businesses. Pershing Square Capital does not. They see it as a portfolio of financial assets generating predictable income.

Music is now an asset class

Thanks to the sheer scale of the streaming economy, music is now an “asset class” with predictable royalty revenues. Steady, recurring income, with good margins for the biggest artists.

For a hedge fund like Pershing Capital, music is no different to a corporate bond yielding a 5% return. It’s not about music culture. They don’t care where those music royalties come from at all.

And this is where we get to the crux of the problem.

The problem: music royalties are increasingly driven by old music …

This lucrative flow of royalties that Pershing Capital loves comes mostly from old music.

Old catalog now comprises 73% of music consumption. Meanwhile, the share of new music is falling dramatically (from 57% of sales in 2010 to just 27% in 2024).

Streaming algorithms deliver us a feedback loop of existing popular music via recommendation engines, and exacerbate familiar older catalog at the expense of new music discovery.

Don’t forget AI training models …

On top of this, the next big wave of royalties will come from AI licenses currently being negotiated by the major labels.

Again, these licenses will disproportionately benefit older, established catalog (songs that are more likely to be referenced by AI training models).

This is the model that Pershing Capital wants to own.

Old catalog driving consistent royalties through streaming revenue and AI licensing income.

Where’s the incentive to drive new music culture?

If you can sit back and collect profits from old catalog, there’s not much incentive to take risk on new artists.

In Billboard’s reporting of the deal, this was addressed directly: ““Many CFOs of the larger financial institutions have shown they are not concerned about investments” in A&R.”

Developing new acts is risky, expensive, lengthy and uncertain. On the flip side, exploiting old catalog is easy, guaranteed, and lucrative.

For a hedge fund owner solely focused on financial outcomes, the choice will be easy.

Understanding Pershing Capital

In fairness to Pershing Square, their takeover proposal does not suggest any day-to-day changes to how Universal Music Group operates.

They won’t be sitting in A&R meetings, making artist decisions or negotiating AI licensing deals.

What we do know, however, is that Ackman is aggressive in pushing stock performance and operational improvement from the top: “Pershing executives laid out that while UMG’s performance has been strong, UMG management hasn’t paid enough attention to the share price” — Billboard.

He’s explicitly saying that UMG needs to be more aware of its share price and performance. And while Ackman believes he can achieve this with financial engineering (primarily by moving the stock from Europe to the US), there will likely be quiet additional pressure on how UMG operates.

The downstream implications …

Pershing Square’s pressure and obsession with share price could quietly seep into day-to-day decisions:

• Less patience for artist development

• Further consolidation - scaling the largest, safest artists, catalogs and initiatives.

• Incentive to maximise margins, cash flow and shareholder value.

• Vertical integration - acquiring more tools and platforms.

• Deal structures designed to maximize share performance - DSP deals, AI licensing deals, catalog monetization.

This is an investment in the past, not the future

Universal Music Group should reject this proposal because it’s an investment in the past. If approved, it is plausible that Universal is no longer a culture-driven music company. It is a holding company for music catalog.

The catalog model looks to preserve the past: maximising legacy records and proven hits in the pursuit of predictable yield.

Which is not a bad thing on its own! Unlocking catalog and music as a financial asset is great, and should absolutely be part of Universal’s business model.

But should it be the core driver for the world’s biggest record label?

The world’s biggest record label should be unapologetically relentless about discovering, developing, and promoting new music culture. It should be given space try new things and fail. It should always be bold and brave and exciting.

New music is in Universal’s DNA

It’s easy to criticise the corporate major label system, but Universal has a long history of developing new music, and that must be protected. Nay, encouraged!

Olivia Dean’s career exploded last year, but she first signed to Universal in 2019. UMG enabled her career to develop naturally for six years before her huge commercial success.

Lola Young was also in development for six years before her breakout in 2025. And Sam Fender has been on the Universal roster for almost a decade before truly finding commercial success in the UK.

Breaking new music takes time, investment, trust and patience.

The people working at UMG day-to-day know this deeply. They need the space and patience from an owner that understands this, too. They need an owner that lives or dies alongside them by the impact of new music culture.

What they don’t need is a hedge fund breathing down their neck about the quarterly share price.

And for that reason, UMG shareholders should consider this proposal very carefully, and truly question the longevity of new music development, before agreeing.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,900+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music industry trends and behavioural shifts.

Every week we send you a music map on where the music industry is going. Today we’re looking for new ways to discover music! If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

Breaking the algorithm

Discovering music now is easy.

Maybe too easy?

Spotify delivers you an endless scroll of recommendations. TikTok throws out incredible hooks and choruses every second. YouTube is a waterfall of DJ sets and LoFi chill.

It’s all great.

We don’t really need to put effort into finding new music any more, because it finds us.

However … I can’t shake the feeling that the best music discoveries of my life always came when I strayed off the beaten track.

• Turning up to a show early to hear the opening band.

• Reading the liner notes of my favourite albums to find new artists and producers.

• Listened to interviews with artists to hear their influences.

• Digging through vinyl and talking to record store owners.

It’s a little bit sweeter when you put in work and find a hidden gem.

But how do you replicate that online?

Today’s map tracks different apps, tools or platforms that will help you break the algorithm and discover something new.

1. Platform based discovery

Some music platforms still have strong discovery mechanisms that don’t rely on ai-generated recommendations. They use editorial, fan curation or organic discovery methods.

1. Bandcamp - try their editorial curation, genre tags, digital crate digging.

2. Soundcloud - use “related tracks” and “liked playlists”

3. Audiomack - genre charts, editorial curation.

4. Nina - editorial, user curation.

5. Medallion - Micro-streaming app which features new, unheard music from big artists.

2. Interactive maps

These tools let you explore musical connections via interactive maps. Discover similar artists, related genres or get lost in music rabbit holes.

5. Music-map - Search for an artist you love, and get dozens of links to similar artists.

6. Every Noise at Once - Built by a former Spotify employee, it’s a “scatter plot” of thousands of weird and wonderful genres to dive into.

7. Gnoosic - Tell Gnoosic what you like and it will give you personal suggestions.

8. Musictaste.space - A visualization of your music identity.

9. MusicRoamer - Maps similar artists.

10. MusicMap.info - Interactive map tracking thousands of genres.

3. Radio

Radio stations or digital radio tools.

11. NTS Radio - UK pirate radio meets US college radio. Specializes in independent, obscure music, and music that can’t be found on Spotify.

12. The Lot - 24/7 independent radio with guest DJs like Four Tet, Fred Again and Overmono.

13. Radio Garden - Discover random radio stations all over the world. Click the map and start listening to somewhere new.

14. Radiooooo - Discover music from different decades.

15. Campus FM - Aggregates dozens of different campus radio stations.

16. Vintage Obscura - Digital radio station that pulls songs from Reddit’s /r/vintageobscura subreddit.

4. Review sites

These are apps or platforms where you can rate and review music, leading to organic new discoveries.

17. Factory.fm - iOS app for rating your favourite albums and leaving little notes and reminders. [Disclaimer: we helped build this one]

18. Rateyourmusic - The oldest and original music rating site.

19. AOTY (Album of the Year) - Album of the Year award turned into music rating platform.

20. Musicboard - An iOS app for rating albums.

5. Social / playful

Social or playful apps that help you discover music via friends or taste profile.

21. Record Club - A social network for music based around rating, reviews, lists and sharing with friends.

22. Piki - Swipe left and right to “like,” “dislike” or “superlike” songs. Get better recommendations.

23. Airbuds - See what your friends are listening to on your phone’s homescreen.

24. Music League - Share music around a specific theme, then win the league if people like your choices.

25. Housewarming - Create an “internet bedroom” based on your music taste to share with friends.

26. Shelf - Create a “shelf” of the music, albums and books you love.

6. Curated

Individual creators and brands that accelerate music discovery.

27. Hype Machine - Aggregates music from hundreds of blogs and curators, and ranks them on a trending chart.

28. Poolsuite - Lifestyle brand with 80s poolside vibe.

29. Tiny Desk - Stripped back live performances, powered by NPR radio station.

30. Colors - Ultra stylish live sessions on YouTube.

31. Substack curators - A growing community of music recommendation newsletters.

32. That Good Shit - One of many new TikTok curator brands that share new music.

7. Miscellaneous

Platforms or tools that don’t fit neatly into any of the other categories!

33. Discogs - Digital crate digging. A database of thousands of albums and vinyl records.

8. IRL

Go outside and find music!

34. Go crate digging in your local record store.

35. Go to shows early to watch the local openers.

36. Read liner notes to find new artists, producers and songwriters.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,900+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music industry trends and behavioural shifts.

Every week we send you a music map on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring the impact of geopolitical tension on touring this summer. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

A growing problem for summer tour plans …

If you’ve ever been on tour you know that every dollar matters.

The price of flights. The cost of petrol. Buying lunch on the road. How many T-shirts you sell.

If one of those things goes wrong, the whole tour can tip into the red.

And this is what many artists are facing this summer.

It looks like, once again, the live touring industry is facing a looming shadow.

This time, due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Obviously, as a music publication, we are at not experts in geopolitics! However, we are reaching a point where things are starting to impact touring economics, and it’s worth planning ahead in case this continues.

Unlike Covid, this isn’t an immediate seismic shock to the system.

If the tensions continue, it will be more like waves that flow through the touring supply chain. It won’t grind large tours and festivals to a halt, but it could quietly hurt independent artist touring on a tight budget.

This week, we’ve mapped out four main waves that could show up over the next year.

The short-version

• Wave 1 - immediate price shock to oil, energy and agriculture.

• Wave 2 - rising cost of touring this summer (fuel, airline prices).

• Wave 3 - rising venue costs (energy, food, artist guarantees, lower fan spending).

• Wave 4 - rising ticket prices and more consolidation.

Important: This report isn’t supposed to be a panic moment. Nor is it even a concrete prediction. Hopefully this conflict de-escalates and tensions ease before the pressures really kick in. However, it is important to explain how these things are linked, and how the music industry is impacted by global tensions and outside events.

Let’s go deeper into each wave to see how the touring economics are impacted.

Wave 1 - the immediate price shock

Timeline: now

• An immediate price shock across oil, energy and agriculture.

• Jet fuel prices almost doubled.

• Festivals and events in the immediate region cancelled.

• Petrol, diesel and flight prices start to creep higher.

This chart shows the price of jet fuel. It has doubled in some regions since the start of the conflict. It takes a while to pass this cost onto airline tickets, but prices are rising already.

Oil, agriculture products and energy (liquid natural gas) are also rising, which could lead to price problems for venues later in the year.

Some music events in the Gulf region and India were immediately impacted. Shakira cancelled shows in India. Christina Aguilera cancelled her UAE shows. And Kesha’s Germany show was cancelled due to disrupted flight-routes.

Wave 2 - the artist tour budget

Timeline: spring-summer 2026

• Spring and summer tours are going to feel more expensive than budgeted.

• Festival fly-ins and last-minute flights may be costly.

• Fuel and per-diems for van tours are going to squeeze harder than originally costed.

• Some independent and mid-sized artists may be forced to cancel or re-route if budgets are too stretched.

Most spring and summer tours are already booked, with budgets approved, and tickets sold. However, once bands get on the road it might feel more expensive than they planned.

Those initial price shocks are now starting to hit flights and petrol costs, but it will get worse over the spring … just in time for the festival season.

Music fans are unlikely to cancel their plans, but they might spend less on drinks and merch if they feel squeezed by rising petrol costs.

Wave 3 - the venue and fan costs kick in

Timeline: autumn-winter 2026

• Venues are hit with higher energy bills and rising costs for alcohol and food.

• Music fans have less disposable income and reduce their discretionary spending. They second-guess ticket purchases, concerts, festivals and nights out.

• Venues are forced to offer higher guarantees for artists who are reluctant to go on tour over budget worries.

• Smaller, low-margin cities get cut from tour plans.

• Merch gets more expensive as artists try to make it work with tiered and high-end merch packages.

If the conflict continues, we might start to see more damaging effects kick in around Q3. Prices could be structurally higher by this point (not a short-term blip) and that has bigger consequences.

Venues will be hit with higher energy and utilities costs when they renew their contracts — especially in Europe which is more dependent on energy imports.

Rising fertiliser costs will hit farms over the summer, then trickle down into food and alcohol prices later in the year. Venues will have to pay more to stock up.

Live agents start demanding higher guarantees for their artists, after spring-summer tours were more expensive than expected. Artists and managers might increase merch prices to make up the touring shortfall.

At the same time, music fans will start to reduce their discretionary spending because their living costs are rising (petrol and food). They might delay ticket purchases, reduce nights out, or stay closer to home.

Some smaller venues might get cut from tour plans to keep costs down, with mid-sized artists opting for regional, dense clusters of shows.

Simply put, venues are squeezed from both sides. Utilities, food, and artist booking costs go up. But ticket sales are slower.

Wave 4 - the long-term impact

Timeline: 2027 - onwards

• The base-line touring cost is now structurally higher.

• This compounds the trends already in place:

  • Ticket costs get hiked again.

  • More megastar artist residencies.

  • Indie tours limited to dense regional clusters.

  • Concerts increasingly become luxury purchases / experiences

  • Grass-roots venues continue to struggle and indie artists can’t make tours work.

You can see where this is going over the long-term. The same pattern gets worse and worse.

Touring gets more expensive, especially for independent and mid-sized artists who were already squeezing to make it work. Our grassroots venues continue to struggle, while megastars double down on the residency model and luxury experiences.

Worse in Europe and Asia

The impact will be more painful for UK and European tours than US events. Europe is more reliant on fuel and energy imports than America (which control more of its own oil and gas production).

Already, prices of jet fuel and petrol are rising faster in Europe than the US.

Asia might be the worst-effected of all, due to its ~80% reliance on Middle East oil and energy. While Asia tours are generally reserved for larger artists, it may prompt those global artists to reconsider their routes.

Hope for the best, but stay prepared

Hopefully this conflict de-escalates quickly and we see energy and oil prices return to a baseline before it has chance to really creep into the touring supply chain.

However, there are plenty of credible reports that suggests, even if the conflict ends soon, there are longer-term price impacts that will take time to return to normal.

If you’re an artist or manager it doesn’t hurt to prepare and budget accordingly.

Thanks for reading

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,800+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music industry trends and behavioural shifts.

Every week we send you a music map on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring independent distribution. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

Last week, we mapped how the major labels are eating everything.

They’ve acquired or invested in dozens of independent distributors and other key pieces of the music industry puzzle.

I think we can all agree on one thing:

We must protect independent routes to market.

Artists must have a way to distribute their music to fans and listeners that does not run through the major label pipes.

So I set about mapping the independent music distributors (companies that deliver your music to Spotify, Apple Music, etc.)

Thankfully, there are still many options out there. However, there are quiet forces that may squeeze their independence in the future.

Every distributor on this map represents an independent path to Spotify and other DSPs. None are controlled by the three major labels.

However … there are nuances.

As you can see on the map, only a small group of music distributors are fully independent. These are founder-owned and operated, without influence from other outside forces.

Many others have venture capital, private-equity backers, or a larger corporate entity behind them.

This is not inherently a bad thing. However, this does place an invisible force on the distributor. Those investors are looking for a return on investment at some point. In music, that almost always means getting acquired by a major label or bigger company.

Distrokid: the next independent to get squeezed?

For example, as I write this article, Distrokid is actively looking for a buyer.

Distrokid is home to 30-40% of independent music uploads to Spotify and other DSPs. What happens if that gets swallowed up by a major label?

This buyer is still unknown. Distrokid could get acquired by a large tech company or private equity firm. But the point remains. When a music company has raised venture capital, there’s an expectation of an exit (sale) in the future. And the major labels are big buyers.

While independent routes to market still exist, they might be at risk of being squeezed in the future.

The cycle begins again …

Just before publishing this map, Too Lost announced a 9-figure investment round.

Too Lost is an upstart music distributor that grew rapidly since launching in 2020, serving 450,000 artists. Again, this investment is not inherently a bad thing. Startups require capital to grow and we love to see music entrepreneurs thriving.

However … does this put Too Lost in the sights of a future buyout?

How to navigate the landscape?

Every distributor on this map still represents an independent route to market and that’s something to celebrate.

We need to keep the highway between you (the artist) and your listeners (Spotify) independent. Not just for ideological and cultural reasons, but for structural and leverage reasons.

If the three major labels control the distribution pipes, they can exert more power and leverage over negotiations with Spotify, and in the future over AI licensing. We need independent voices in those rooms.

20 Independent routes to market … mapped

In this section, we’ll link every independent distributor on our map, and explain the categories. As always, this map and list are not exhaustive. There are now dozens of small - mid-sized distributors and it’s hard to capture them all. However, hopefully this serves as a good snapshot of the ecosystem.

Key categories

• Fully independent - These companies are founder-owned and operated. They have no investors and no larger parent entity to influence them.

• VC-backed - These companies have raised money from investors. Keep in mind that these platforms may get acquired by a major label or another large music company in the future.

• Corporate-owned - These platforms are owned by a larger independent music company. For example Tunecore is owned by Believe (a gigantic French music company). The platforms typically still operate on their own terms but may be subject to changes at the bigger company level.

• Self-serve - DIY platforms where anyone can upload and release their music.

• Application - DIY platforms but you must apply and be accepted.

• Curated - These platforms may serve a group of independent labels or curate a roster of independent artists, but they are not open to all artists or applications.

Platforms

• OneRPM - fully independent | self-serve

• Venice Music - fully independent | self-serve (premium)

• Route Note - fully independent | self-serve

• Horus Music - fully independent | self-serve

• Ditto - VC-funded | self-serve

• Distrokid - VC-backed | self-serve | !sale pending!

• Too Lost - VC-backed | self-serve

• United Masters - VC-backed | self-serve

• Amuse - VC-backed | self-serve

• Tunecore - owned by Believe | self-serve

• Roc Nation Distribution - owned by Roc Nation | self-serve

• Soundcloud - VC-backed | self-serve

• Symphonic Distribution - VC-backed | self-serve

• Identity Music - fully independent | application only

• Secretly Distribution - fully independent | curated

• State51 Conspiracy - fully independent | curated

• IDOL - fully independent | curated

• EMPIRE Distribution - fully independent | curated

• Label Engine - owned by Create Music | curated

• Redeye - owned by Exceleration | curated

• Stem - owned by Concord | curated

Before we go …

Last week, our music map visualized how the major labels had acquired and invested platforms in key aspects of the music industry infrastructure.

To visualize this in another way, our friend Brodie Conley remixed the map to show how the majors are positioning themselves to control the entire music process.

From music creation → to distribution → to fan interactions.

It’s a great follow-up to our original piece, you should go check out his analysis.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,500+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music tech trends and behavioural shifts.

Every week we send you a music map on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring the major labels’ growing reach into the independent landscape. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

A concerning trend …

Universal Music Group just completed its acquisition of Downtown Music Group.

It’s a big deal.

It gives Universal enormous power over the music landscape, and regulators have spent over a year trying to decide whether the takeover should even be allowed.

When you dig into the details, you can see why it’s a problem.

Downtown Music is was a powerhouse of independent music, serving 4 million independent artists via its music distribution services (CDBaby, FUGA, Soundrop) and publishing administration.

All that independent infrastructure is now controlled by the world’s biggest major label.

It’s part of a worrying trend across all three majors …

The major labels are eating independent infrastructure

We mapped out some of the major labels' biggest acquisitions and investments in recent years to see just how many independent companies they’ve swallowed up.

It’s … a lot.

The prevailing narrative is that Universal is buying these companies to identify and upstream independent artists faster.

I don’t think that’s true.

This is about Universal gaining leverage over Spotify, controlling the highway that links artists to their audience, and preparing for an AI-led future.

I’ll explain why, but first, let’s go through each major label to see what they’ve been buying.

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1. Universal Music Group

Universal’s acquisition of Downtown Music gives them control over:

• CDBaby - music distribution for more than 2 million artists. At one point, CDBaby was responsible for ~35% of all music distribution in the US.

• FUGA - music distribution for over 3 million tracks from independent artists and labels (including Beggars, Domino, Epitaph).

• Songtrust - a publishing administrator for 445,000 independent artists and 4 million songs.

• Downtown Music Publishing - representing 360,000 songwriters.

• DashGo - boutique music distribution for 37,000 artists.

• Soundrop - Self-serve music distribution.

• AdRev - Rights monetization for YouTube.

In this one acquisition, Universal dramatically increases its control over the independent music world.

What else does Universal own?

Downtown is just the latest independent company to get swallowed by the Universal machine. In the last six years, they’ve also acquired:

• PIAS - One of the largest independent label groups. [Acquired 2024]

• Ingrooves - Music distribution for some of the biggest independent labels (Ninja Tune, Dirty Hit, Kitsuné) [Acquired 2019]

• mtheory - Independent artist management and label services.

• Outdustry - Artist services in Asia and India.

• Famehouse - Direct-to-fan services and digital marketing for artists.

Even if they don’t acquire companies outright, they’ll often take part-ownership via investment. Universal’s recent portfolio includes:

• Stationhead - Superfan app

• Weverse - Superfan app in Asia.

• PEX - AI music detection software.

• Chord Music Partners - Acquires legacy music IP and catalog.

Alternatively, they’ll secure strategic partnerships with startups and infrastructure providers. Recent examples include:

• EVEN - Direct-to-fan platform powering J Cole and LaRussell campaigns.

• Udio - Legal agreements to license artist catalog for AI training.

• Splice - To co-develop AI music generation tools.

Of course, Universal is not the only major label expanding into indie infrastructure.

2. Sony Music Group

Sony has also been aggressively going after independent music distribution:

• AWAL - Serves 20,000 independent artists with distribution, marketing and artist services. [Acquired in 2022]

• The Orchard - Serves 26,000 independent artists and labels. [Acquired in 2015].

Sony’s strategy appears to be consolidating the mid-large independent market. AWAL and The Orchard have served large artists like Tom Misch, Little Simz, Bombay Bicycle Club.

Sony has also been acquiring independent labels and rights admin:

• Spinnin’ Records - one of the biggest independent electronic labels.

• Kobalt Neighboring Rights - independent performance rights collection.

And investing in independent artist tools.

• Laylo - Direct-to-fan messaging.

• Beatstars - Platform for independent producers to sell and license beats.

• Vermillio - AI music detection.

3. Warner Music Group

Warner is the least aggressive of the three. Rather than buying independent music distribution, Warner founded the Alternative Distribution Alliance (ADA).

• ADA - Music distribution with independent partner labels (SubPop, Mute, 10K, ThreeSixZero).

They’ve also invested in global distribution via local specialists:

• Sua Música Group - Brazilian distribution

• JetSynthesys’ Global Music Junction - India distribution

• Rotana Music - Arabic music distribution.

Why do major labels want independent distribution?

The big question is why? Why are the majors scrambling to buy up music distribution companies?

The most common answer I see floated around is that major labels want faster insight into which artists are blowing up, so they can upstream them into the major label system.

I don’t think that’s true. Major labels have access to instant, transparent data on any songs and artist already.

The big problem is this:

Major labels no longer own music consumption

You probably read Joel Gouveia’s recent essay on the “Death of Spotify.”

It’s a great read but one thing from that essay bears repeating:

“For the first time in history, we (the majors) don’t control the entire means of consumption.”

Major labels used to make vinyl and record players, CDs and CD players, minidisc players, etc. They owned the music and the end-user experience.

That’s no longer true in the streaming era. Tech companies like Spotify and Apple now own the user-experience.

And in order to dictate terms and deals, the major labels need leverage over Spotify.

So … why are major labels buying independent distribution? Because it gives them more leverage and power over the DSPs.

Major labels want to control the highway on which independent music reaches Spotify, Amazon, YouTube, TikTok, etc.

Let’s explain further.

1. Major labels want more leverage over Spotify and DSPs

Universal, Sony and Warner cut the original back-room deals that defined the streaming era. They had all the catalog, power and leverage to dictate terms when Spotify was new and trying to grow.

But that’s changing.

Spotify is now entrenched among music fans, so they own and control the listener experience. Spotify has much more leverage than 20 years ago.

Not only that but, but approximately ~30% of all streams on Spotify now come from independently distributed artists. Although Universal might control the “Billions Club” of megastars, they don’t control the long-tail.

By aggressively acquiring independent distribution channels, the major labels are gaining bargaining chips.

There’s one more theory as well …

2. Positioning to capture new revenue streams from AI

It’s no secret that streaming growth is slowing, and new monetization channels are emerging.

AI music tools will be the biggest new licensing pathway for music over the next ten years. The majors are already scrambling to sign licensing deals and dictate terms with the biggest AI players (e.g. Suno and Udio). And we know that Spotify is currently preparing AI remixing tools.

The majors need leverage over these discussions.

However, major label catalog is not sufficient in this new AI world.

If AI models are only trained on major label superstars, the outputs will fall short. The best models will need to be trained on wide context and millions of independent songs to generate the richest, most authentic outputs.

The major labels can’t quickly acquire all that independent catalog. But they can gain leverage by purchasing the underlying independent infrastructure: payment rails, publishing admin, distribution channels and, crucially, attribution and fingerprint systems.

In simple terms, this is a race to control the underlying pipes and payment rails that connects artists to their audience. Not just major label artists, but millions of independent artists, too.

It’s a worrying trend that leaves fewer and fewer independent paths to releasing music.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,000+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music tech trends and behavioural shifts.

Every week we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring the investment landscape for music tech. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

Building in music is hard.

We do it for the love. And we do it because we can’t really imagine doing anything else.

Many of us see a better vision for the music industry. We want fairer models for artists and better products for fans. We want to drag the old music industry into the 21st century and break down the old gatekeepers.

We want to shape music culture.

However … building something visionary at scale usually requires capital.

You need investors to believe in you and support your vision for the long-term.

With that in mind, who’s investing in the future of music?

This week, we mapped 175+ investment firms that have deployed capital into music-tech startups in the last four years. Here’s what it looks like:

At first glance, it looks like money is pouring into music tech. There are almost 200 names on this list!

However, the reality is a little different.

As we dug into the research, we found:

A sprawling, inconsistent web of venture capital

There is, unfortunately, no clear path or funnel of investment for music tech.

• Only 5 venture funds exist purely for music tech.

• Only 1 large fund has a sub-section dedicated to music.

• Only a handful of VC firms have invested in more than one music company.

What’s left is a sprawling web of generalist VC capital from all over the world. Investments into music are sporadic, random, and often based around a trending narrative (AI or web3).

Access the full database

The best way to view this list is via the database we built at our website stvdio.io.

Every fund is linked, along with location info and portfolio companies listed. If you’re looking to raise money or go deeper, check it out.

Breaking down the categories

We’ve broken down the research into the following filters:

1. Music tech funds

These funds exist solely to invest in music tech startups. Examples include Jukebox Ventures (just launched in the UK) and Black Lily (backed by Live Nation). Some larger funds have a team dedicated to music (e.g Bridford Group).

2. Consumer tech and media funds

These funds specialize in funding consumer technology (music, gaming, media or consumer apps) or media and entertainment. While they’re not music exclusive, they may be more relevant if you’re building a consumer-facing music app or media company.

3. Generalist / tech funds

This section is our “sprawling web of venture capital,” and makes up the vast majority of the investment landscape. These generalist funds invest in hundreds of companies across all sorts of verticals like tech, software, AI, utilities and consumer … with only a rare investment into music tech.

4. Music industry

The music industry itself is a significant backer of early-stage music companies. All three major labels have innovation funds (Sony, Warner and Universal) which tend to invest in tools that support major label infrastructure like AI recognition tools and superfan apps.

The mid-level companies are also active like Roc Nation, ThreeSixZero and United Masters. Lastly, there are options at the earliest stage from creative communities like Tileyard London and independent label groups like Futures and AIE Ventures.

5. Accelerators

Accelerators are cohorts of early-stage entrepreneurs who receive mentorship and funding to get their project off the ground. Some small music-specific accelerators exist (Marathon Labs, Sound Invest), as well as larger tech accelerators (e.g. YCombinator and Techstars).

5. Web3 and narrative funds

Lastly, there are sector-specific funds that tend to deploy into music when their narratives cross-over with music. The biggest example here is the wave of crypto funds that invested in music startups when the NFT narrative was hot.

Raising money for music tech

There is money flowing into the music tech space. However, it’s fractured, inconsistent and often centred around hot narratives rather than deep belief in music technology as a sector.

Funds that truly understand music are rare, and mostly limited to very early-stage checks. If you are raising money for a music project, you will also need to target several generalist tech funds and convince them of a bigger-picture narrative in order to secure a full round of funding.

It’s tough out there, but not impossible.

If you think we’ve made a mistake or want to contribute to this investor map, please reach out to us directly!

Special thanks to the Music Tech UK community, Gareth Deakin and Maciej Dulski who provided guidance on this topic.

Methodology Notes: the database was created by tracking music investments announced within the last four years. It uses publicly available data, manually collected from news announcements and Crunchbase. It is by no means exhaustive and does not capture every deal.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,000+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music tech trends and behavioural shifts.

Every Monday we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring the importance of human curation in music. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

Imagine it’s Christmas 2028.

Your Spotify Wrapped is full of artists you don’t recognise.

You like the songs, sure.

You remember listening to them on repeat (they were on your running playlist and your study playlist).

And if you listen back, the music resemble artists you used to know, but you can’t quite remember their name.

That’s because your Spotify Wrapped 2028 is all AI.

Somewhere in 2026, the algorithm started recommending you AI songs that sound similar to artists you like.

You didn’t really notice at first.

An AI generated remix of an Aphex Twin song that showed up in your Release Radar.

An AI song trained on Fred Again that you didn’t skip during your work-out session.

Spotify noticed these “positive signals” and started recommending more. Passive background noise that didn’t challenge you … but didn’t offend you either.

The self-reinforcing loop of Spotify’s algorithm fed on itself for a year until 90% of your “Discover” playlist was AI-generated.

It happened slowly so you didn’t notice.

Okay, okay this is a dystopian idea.

But it’s not impossible to imagine, right?

Last week, we explore how Spotifty was leaning too far into sloppification algorithms.

This is the path we’re on if streaming services rely too heavily on AI algorithms and AI generated music.

Today I want to share why I care so much.

We desperately need to preserve human curation in music.

And I have the nerdy science to explain why …

AI algorithms flatten music discovery

Streaming algorithms create a feedback loop of luke-warm music.

It over-indexes on passive music that you “like.”

But doesn’t quite capture what you “love.” And doesn’t ever ask you what you “dislike.”

This feedback loop disproportionately benefits familiar, popular artists, background music (and, soon, AI generated tracks).

The missing element: extremes of emotion

AI algorithms are really bad at capturing the extremes of emotional connection with a song. Spotify knows which music you listen to a lot, but it doesn’t know how strongly you feel.

But …

If we actively capture the extremes of music sentiment (the songs you love and, crucially, the songs you dislike) we get much better recommendations.

Here’s how we know …

Analysing 6 million song ratings

A music discovery app called Piki has captured more than 6 million song ratings, tracking a wider range of emotional connection than a normal streaming service.

You are presented with songs and prompted to “like,” “dislike,” or “superlike” every song.

They got some pretty interesting results — published by the founder in two academic articles here and here. Tl;dr:

1. Superlikes are much higher for mid-level artists

Although general “likes” are correlated with artist popularity, “Superlikes” are strongest for artists at the 70% popularity region.

These are mid-level artists, like Kaytranada and The Marias.

People like superstars … but they LOVE music by smaller artists. The intensity of music connection is much stronger at the middle level, and regresses again at the most popular level.

Conclusion: algorithms are under-serving smaller, independent artists because they are too busy indexing on passive “like” signals and tracking popularity. The middle-class of artists are much more deserving of exposure, and fans would be surprised and delighted at hearing more from them.

2. Dislikes improved the recommendation output by 18%

When the Piki team trained an algorithm which included a users’ active dislikes, it improved the liklihood of that user liking the next recommendation by 18%.

Conclusion: The negative feedback gives the algorithm a much clearer signal about your music sentiment.

The overall conclusion is clear: human curation unearths the extremes of music sentiment. And this is where the most powerful discovery and recommendation potential lives.

Why current AI recommendation are weak

The current systems are weak for a few reasons.

1. They’re designed to increase engagement - Spotify is not incentivized to push risky songs to you. Spotify’s business model relies on keeping you engaged for as long as possible. They’re maximised for retention, so the algorithm wants to give you songs you probably like. It has no incentive to present you with songs you’ll dislike, even if that feedback is extremely useful. The algorithm plays it safe with familiarity and median-intensity sentiment.

2. Hard to capture extreme positive sentiment - Spotify collects mostly median-positive signals. If you stream a song all the way through, that counts as a positive signal. But how strong was your feeling? Did you really love that song? Or was it just on a playlist you listened through? Did you play it on repeat because you were obsessed, or because you were studying for three hours? Capturing the strong positive sentiment is hard.

3. They do not collect negative sentiment - Likewise, Spotify doesn’t collect negative sentiment very well. Sure, the algorithm knows when you skip a track. But is that because you don’t like it? Or did it just not fit the mood (of course I’ll skip a Sufjan Stevens song while I’m working out in the gym, even if Sufjan Stevens is my favourite artist of all time).

4. It reinforces popularity bias - Songs with high play counts are considered “good” so are recommended more often. It creates a feedback loop of popularity bias.

5. They suffer from selection bias - User search is much more likely to gravitate to familiar or popular artists. Algorithms often start from a point of selection bias.

Why does it matter?

It matters because algorithms can be responsible for making or breaking an artist’s career. They decide whether an artist can pay rent next month, or whether they get to make another album.

The algorithms are shaping new music culture.

The data suggests we are under-serving the middle-class of artists who deserve more exposure. And to whom it would make the most difference in their career.

But on top of that, we are under-serving music fans.

There is nothing more beautiful in the world than discovering a new song you love.

It’s the best feeling.

When your brain hears a new song, it gets flooded with excitement. You go into rabbit-hole discovering everything this artist has ever written. You want to send it to everyone you know.

This is where fandoms grow and deeper connections form.

Friction is important

A final note. Algorithms are designed for removing as much friction as possible.

And that’s fine sometimes.

But I really like this take from MusicX — friction is a choice. And if streaming algorithms continue to remove friction, we will have to make the choice to hunt out music for ourselves.

Sometimes discovering great music is difficult. It requires friction.

That’s where the reward is.

You’re supposed to rummage through crates of different vinyl before you find something you really love.

You’re supposed to read music blogs until something hits you hard.

You’re supposed to listen to radio shows where you might not like all the music.

The “reward” of an incredible new discovery is richest when you’ve put in work to get there. By overcoming some friction your feelings are intensified.

This is where AI recommendation systems often fall short. They trend to the mean. Spotify serves you 50 songs you “probably like” instead of something risky that you might really love.

Spotify doesn’t want to challenge you.

Sometimes … it doesn’t really want you to notice at all. As long as you keep listening.

So, this is a call. Seek out friction in music discovery sometimes. We need more human curation. More mistakes. More songs you don’t like … but more music you fall in love with.

Thanks for reading!

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,000+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music tech trends and behavioural shifts.

Every Monday we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring Spotify’s future plans. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

So … I listened to Spotify’s investors call last week and it left me feeling quite depressed about where this is all going.

I know, I know. Spotify has never exactly been the moral centre of the music universe. I’m not expecting a miracle on artist payments or anything like that.

However, the future they outlined on the call felt particularly bleak for music fans and artists.

To explain, I made a little heat map showing what they talked about most:

This is a heatmap of the words and phrases used by Spotify’s execs on last week’s call. It tells you everything you need to know.

A lot has been written about the “enshittification” era of Spotify.

But now we’re heading towards the “slopification” era, with endless podcasts, AI content creation (specifically AI remixing), and … more AI recommendations.

And almost zero mention of deepening fandoms, organic discovery, expanding direct sales or human social connections.

Spotify’s earnings call: a source of truth

Maybe you’re wondering why I spend my time listening to Spotify investor calls.

Because it’s their main source of truth.

It doesn’t matter what Spotify’s marketing says or what press releases they put out.

But it does matter what they say to investors.

It’s is a much more accurate representation of where the company is really heading.

So, what does Spotify’s future look like?

To summarize Spotify’s main priorities from this earnings call:

• AI derivatives - This is the big takeaway. Spotify is exploring ways for users to remix and cover music within the app, using AI tools. Interactive AI content creation is coming.

• More audio, less music - Spotify is positioning itself as the “technology platform for audio.” Audiobooks and podcasts now hold equal weight with music.

• Agentic media platform - Doubling down on Spotify’s AI DJ, prompted playlists and AI recommendations.

In simple terms: they are dialling up the slop level. And diluting meaningful music connection.

And this comes from someone who loves AI.

But there’s a big difference between using AI in creative and productive ways … and encouraging a race-to-the-bottom-of-slop. I’m worried that Spotify is driving towards the latter.

Why this trajectory?

When you piece all the clues together, it starts to make sense why Spotify is moving in this direction.

Clue #1: Spotify’s growth is slowing in Western markets

Subscriber growth in Europe and the US has slowed down. Generally speaking, we’re approaching a saturation point for music streaming in the developed markets.

Spotify’s overall growth chart looks strong (below). But that’s due to rapid growth in the rest of the world. When you zoom in on Europe and the United States, the rate of growth has slowed down every year since 2021.

When growth rates slow, the company needs to dig deeper into retention, engagement, profit margins and revenue-per-user.

Put another way … the enshittification process is well under way.

That means Spotify is now firmly in a stage of maximising profit and engagement from its saturated audience. It needs new ways to keep subscribers engaged.

That’s why you’ve seen an expansion into audiobooks, podcasts and video. Spotify wants to own the entire audio-media experience.

The problem: Artists are negatively impacted financially as revenue must also be shared with podcasts and other creators. Music discovery is limited, as podcasts and audiobooks take up more screenshare on the Spotify app.

Clue #2 A new competitor emerges …

Not only is the market saturated, but Spotify has a new threat on the horizon.

Suno.

While everyone is distracted by Suno’s music generation, the Suno team is quietly building the next music consumption platform.

Suno’s homepage is dominated by music discovery. New creators to follow, trending sounds, short-form hooks, genre filters, staff picks, new songs, playlists. And you’re prompted to engage with it. Remix the sounds, mash them, or use it as inspiration for your next creation.

Suno is building a 3D music platform. You don’t just listen, you engage and interact with it.

And it’s very clearly a threat for Spotify.

Spotify’s new CEOs were asked twice by investors what they were doing about this threat.

The answer is … they’re going to try and compete.

“To your question of do we need to invest in content creation tools, we have all the technology and capabilities that we need since a long time. This is a tech company. So we are working with the industry to enable these opportunities.”

Spotify’s first step is likely in remixes. The company wants to enable users to create new versions of songs.

“New takes on existing music. Everything we see tells us listeners want to interact with their favorite music.”

The CEOs say they are actively in conversation with the music industry (the major labels) about creating licensing frameworks for derivatives and remixes.

Unfortunately, this feels like Spotify responding to a trending threat, rather than thoughtfully building music tools that people really want.

Clue 3: New CEOs Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström

This quarter was Daniel Ek’s last as CEO. He’s passed the reigns to Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström, and if you look at their backgrounds it’s easy to see where Spotify is heading.

Gustav Söderström was the previous Chief Product and Technology Officer. He was responsible for the entire AI recommendation and discovery engine at Spotify. AI is his “number one, two and three” priority focus.

He also refers to Spotify as an “audio network.” Tellingly … not a music app.

An “agentic media platform”

Söderström’s plan seems clear: accelerate what he calls the “agentic media platform.”

This started with Spotify’s AI DJ feature and expanded with “Prompted Playlists” where you can ask Spotify for what vibe, genre, or moment you want to create. As he explains:

“All of this teases the next evolution of Spotify. Delivering the world’s most intelligent, agentic media platform. One that you can literally talk to.”

Meanwhile, Alex Norström is the business-brain, focused on optimizing the subscription model. Notably the word “margin” was used 36 times, suggesting that “growth” is no longer the main business driver. It’s capturing value from the userbase.

What’s missing from Spotify’s future…

There is, unfortunately, no mention at all of:

• Direct-to-fan improvements.

• Data visibility for artists.

• Merch improvements.

• Fan messaging or fan clubs.

• Superfan engagement.

• Social features (expanding on Wrapped)

Many of these features were prominent mentions in previous earnings calls, but not this one.

And I don’t think it’s wishful thinking. Direct-to-fan is among the fastest-growing revenue streams of music industry. Spotify could meaningfully capture value and market share here if it wanted.

Spotify Wrapped is one of the most powerful social-music products in the world. There are limitless ways Spotify could build on this social and identity platform.

Unfortunately … the pressure of AI and threat of competitors is forcing Spotify to capitulate on any meaningful music connection.

And, that’s sad.

Thanks for reading!

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,000+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music tech trends and behavioural shifts.

Every Monday we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring the the landscape of AI music tools in 2026. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

The panic over AI music began in April 2023.

A mysterious producer called Ghostwriter dropped a song using AI voice filters that sounded suspiciously like Drake and The Weeknd.

The AI had clearly been trained on Drake’s catalog and likeness, with no legal copyright clearance. It sent the music industry into a tail-spin of legal issues and arguments that still haven’t been fully resolved today…

However, in the middle of all this panic, Grimes did something different.

She launched Elf.Tech.

Instead of protecting the copyright of her vocal, she made it open-source to everyone. Any singer or producer could upload a voice track, and Elf.Tech would recreate it using Grimes’ voice.

You could release the music, credit Grimes on your track, and share royalties 50-50.

This moment perfectly captures the two-sides of the AI music story.

On the one hand, AI has trigged the biggest existential crisis since piracy. We now have huge copyright, legal and moral issues to work through. Some AI platforms have scraped and violated music copyright from millions of artists without permission and without compensation.

As a result, we’re drowning in slop-upon-slop, with 60,000 new AI-generated tracks uploaded to Deezer every day. Music AI CEOs are declaring, with no irony at all, that music is “not enjoyable to make.”

But on the other hand, there are moments of amazing creativity and new business models if we dare to explore. Like Grimes. Like Imogen Heap creating an AI alter-ego using her own likeness.

For independent artists, there’s a giant leap in productivity at your fingertips with AI production assistance and AI “session players” that would be unaffordable otherwise.

With all this in mind (the good and bad) today we’re going deep into the AI music landscape in 2026.

The Music AI Landscape in 2026

When headlines talk about “AI music” they’re usually referring to something like Suno — a song-generator that churns out 7 million songs every day, trained on unlicensed music.

However, the reality is much broader. We can generally separate the landscape into the following sections:

1. 💿 Full song creation - Generate a complete song based on a text description. Some are ethically trained. Others are trained on scraped, unlicensed music.

2. 🎹 DAW-based - Tools that sit inside your DAW, or function like a DAW, to assist music creation and production (generate chord progressions, basslines or drums).

3. 🎤 Vocal tools - These are optimized to generate vocal sounds (choirs or voice-changing outputs).

4. 🎛️ Remix tools - using AI to mashup or remix existing music.

5. 🖼️ Sync and soundtracks - Generates background audio for podcasts, vlogs, adverts.

6. 🧘‍♀️ Wellness - Generates audio for focus and wellness apps.

7. 🚨 Attribution and enforcement - Detect AI content, track attribution, flag infringements, and process royalties from generative AI.

Note: this landscape is focused specifically on AI music generation and the resulting copyright attribution tools required. We’ve excluded production tools (like stem separation, mix and mastering products) and admin tools like AI catalog search platforms. This keeps the report focused around creative music generation.

Let’s go through each one in detail and explain the difference between ethically-trained AI tools and non-licensed tools.

Part 1: Pure song generation

These platforms allow you to create a song from text. You describe the type of song you want (style, genre, lyric ideas) and the AI will generate it.

There are two categories here: scrapers and ethical.

The scrapers

These platforms have allegedly been trained by scraping publicly available music (mostly via YouTube according to lawsuits) without license agreements. They are currently in legal negotiations with major labels and indie organizations.

• Suno - The clear leader in music AI, generating over seven million tracks every day. Suno has settled its lawsuit with Warner Music Group (WMG) but remains in litigation with Universal Music Group (UMG) and Sony Music.

• Udio - Udio is the second-largest song generator. It has now settled lawsuits with UMG and WMG, and the platform is expected to add new features like remix and mashup tools, trained on copyrighted music.

Ethical

The platforms below have all been trained on licensed music, via artist agreements, in-house music, or licensed libraries.

• Stable Audio - Music generation from the team behind Stable Diffusion’s image generator. Their model is trained on stock audio libraries and open source public libraries of music.

• Soundverse - Trained on music with artist-consent from its partner program. Pays artists via a “DNA” attribution system.

• Jen - Trained on fully licensed catalog.

• Beathoven AI - Uses 100,000 ethically-sourced data samples from artist contributions.

• Soundraw - Trained on a catalog of in-house music created by its own team.

• Delphos - Delphos is trained on your own compositions, designed to help you create extensions of our own imagination and personal sound.

• Boomy - Powered almost 30 million AI generated songs. It’s trained on music created by its own team.

Part 2: DAW-based creation

These tools are not designed to create a song from scratch, but to assist creativity during the production and writing process. They are designed like a DAW (or sit within your existing DAWs) to help generate chord progressions, beats or backing vocals.

Chords, backing tracks or melody generators

• Moises AI Studio - Generates matching audio and instrumental parts based on your existing recording.

• Mozart AI - Generates chord progressions, synths, drums, vocals, mixing suggestions

• Splice - Creative AI tools (e.g. hum a melody and Splice will automatically find samples to match). Recently acquired Kits.AI which creates custom AI vocals.

• LANDR - Originally best known for its AI mastering, LANDR now has tools for generating chord progressions, basslines and melodies around your existing recording.

• Lemonaide - Generate audio and MIDI samples, drop them into your DAW. Recently acquired by BeatStars.

• Aiode - Virtual musicians generate tracks based on your songs and recordings.

• Muse - AI MIDI generator.

Vocals and voice-specific tools

• Elevenlabs - Leading AI voice models (primarily used for audiobooks and customer service, but also in music generation).

• Controlla - Generate choirs and vocal sounds.

• KitsAI - Custom AI vocals, now owned by Splice.

• Revocalize - Generate hyper-realistic voices.

Part 3: Remix tools

These tools are designed to mashup songs, remix them, and create more social experiences.

• Hook - Create short-form remixes and mashups of songs using AI.

• Klay - Klay is still in closed beta mode, but has inked deals with all three major labels and is expected to launch a remixing and mashup tool using licensed music from the majors.

• Mashapp - Recommends songs that will mash together well. Create mashups and send them to friends.

• Starchild - Upload your own songs, turn it into an adaptive remixable version.

• Udio - Expected to launch a remix tool with licensed songs from Warner Music Group.

Part 4: Soundscapes and syncs

Generative AI music is increasingly being used to soundtrack adverts, podcasts, vlogs, livestreams, games and wellbeing apps.

Sync tools

• Epidemic Sound - Generate background soundtracks for adverts, promos and vlogs.

• Mirelo - Upload videos and AI will generate soundscapes to match.

• Reactional Music - For game developers. Generate soundscapes that react with your gameplay.

• Soundful - Generate royalty-free background music for podcasts, adverts, etc.

Wellbeing apps and focus music

• Endel - Personal soundscapes to help you focus or relax.

• Brain.fm - Generated music for deep work.

• GetSound - Productivity and deep work soundscapes.

Part 5: Attribution, royalties and enforcement

This will be the next big wave of innovation for the music industry. How do we attribute artists when their work is used to train AIs and generate outputs? How do we pay them accurately, and enforce copyright infringements. The following companies are tackling these problems.

• MusicalAI - Connects AI generated music to the real music and artists used to train it. Ensures payments splits to those rightsholders.

• Sureel - A tool for copyright holders to “opt-in” to AI training and attribution technology.

• Vermillio - Tracks and takes down any copyright infringement. Backed by Sony music.

• Sound Patrol - Uses “neural fingerprints” to track down copyright infringements.

• Vobile - AI song detection.

• MatchTune - Detects unauthorised use of copyright and flags infringements.

• Corpus - A collective where artists can license their songs ethically to AI training models.

• Pex - AI song detection used by dsps and distributors.

• SongSleuth - Detects copyright infrigement in user-generated content.

• Deezer, Bandcamp - In-house AI detection models.

Thanks for reading!

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

STVDIO tracks the future of music. Helping 3,000+ artists, music industry professionals, founders and investors navigate music tech trends and behavioural shifts.

Every Monday we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring the direct-to-fan stack in 2026. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

A few weeks ago, Harry Styles began putting up mysterious posters all around New York, Berlin, Manchester and other major cities.

He then sent fans to his website with a link to a WhatsApp group.

Inside the WhatsApp group was an audio message from Harry hinting at his new album.

Then a series of cryptic messages to reveal his upcoming tour locations.

In the same week, J Cole dropped a surprise new mixtape on his website.

You can pay what you want. $1 or $1,000 or even more. And after downloading, you get sent to another website to pre-order his new album.

Fans went crazy over this Easter egg hunt and shared it all over social media.

The point of all this…

You can have a lot of fun with direct-to-fan strategies when you’re a megastar. You can tease fans, drive hype, and generate sales.

But, what if you’re not a superstar?

“Copy Fred Again” is not a very helpful take if you’re a brand new artist.

With all that in mind, today’s post is hopefully a different take on direct-to-fan.

Our music map below outlines a pyramid of how you can utilize different D2F tools and tactics depending on where you are in your artist journey.

Bring fans into your orbit

First, it’s important to remember that direct-to-fan is not your main channel for discovery or growing an audience. It’s not a replacement for streaming or social.

It’s about bringing your most engaged fans into your world.

Marketing people will call it a funnel. We prefer an orbit.

People will discover your music from all sorts of places. It’s your job to bring them closer to your orbit and into your world.

It’s also your job to widen those streaming and social rings.

The more you expand the outer rings, the more fans you can bring into your D2F orbit.

Some more myths about direct-to-fan

Before we start, I also want to push back on many D2F narratives because I think there’s a lot of misleading information out there.

1. D2F is not One Solution - There’s no magic playbook. No single platform that will fix everything. It’s finding the right combination of tools for you.

2. It doesn’t cut out middlemen - Every tool on this list is another middle-man. That’s fine, but let’s be honest about it.

3. D2F is oversold to small artists, and undersold to big artists - D2F tools are often designed to appeal to small artists (because of course the platform wants to grow its users). As a result, newer artists often spend too much time on D2F before they have a big enough audience to make it work. On the flip side, big artists spend too little time on D2F because other priorities kick in.

4. It doesn’t replace social media or streaming. The D2F narrative is often presented as an “alternative” to streaming and an antidote to short-form social. But they are totally different things. You still need streaming and socials to grow your total audience. D2F is for bringing them into your orbit.

5. More channels, more problems. More D2F channels does not means more impact and revenue. Too many channels actually risks creating more problems, and diluting your audience across too many platforms.

6. It doesn’t disrupt major labels. Major labels are dominating D2F sales more than all others combined. They are incredible at it.

7. ❗ Is the platform giving you promotion? … or are you giving them promotion? I’m highlighting this one last because it’s very important. Is the platform or tool helping you grow? Or are you being used as their marketing team? Lots of platforms onboard artists so that you promote the tool to your fans.

The Direct to Fan Pyramid

This pyramid is a reflection that D2F strategies will look very different for different artists, at different stages in their career.

It highlights platforms that are particularly powerful and appropriate for each stage in the artist journey, and a visualization of how you could layer on new tools and tactics as you grow — not a strict formula.

As you move through the pyramid, you might replace some previous tools, or you might layer them onto your strategy. It’s not a hard rule, and each section will differ depending on your fanbase, your vision, and your preferences.

Let’s go deeper into each section to understand.

1. New independent artist (<50k monthly listeners)

At this early stage, you don’t need dozens of complex D2F channels. You don’t have “superfans” yet so 90% of your effort should be spent growing the total audience first.

However, it is extremely important to start collecting emails and offering basic digital products. This is your foundation for owning your audience from day one.

• Email capture: Every email address is a huge win. You can use a simple Substack welcome page or use Bandcamp to offer a free track in exchange for an email address. Aim for 500 email addresses.

• Digital sales: Keep it simple with Bandcamp - a place where music fans are already comfortable.

• Merch sales: You can offer very simple merch (stickers, badges, t-shirts) using a basic dropshipping platform like Printful connected to Bandcamp or your socials.

Don’t worry about exclusive content, subscriptions or superfan communities. And consider any sales as a bonus. This is all about building a simple foundation for loyalty in the future. In the meantime, 90% of your effort should be focused on audience-growth.

Key point: focus on platforms that will help you with discovery (not the other way around). Bandcamp and Substack are great because they have feeds and recommendations that can put your channels in front of new people.

You don’t need

• A Shopify store

• Five different platforms to manage

• A superfan app

• A Discord community

• Data analytics

2. Growing independent artist (~100k-500k monthly listeners)

You now have a decent fan base so you can start to build a world around your music and aesthetic. Ramp up the direct-to-fan channels and start building income.

However, this is also where it gets hard because there are so many options available to you. Don’t let this get out of control. Keep it manageable and efficient.

Reminder: Our pyramid visual does not mean you need to add all these tools or platforms to your stack. It means these tools are applicable for your growth stage, but pick the tools that make sense for you.

• Identifying your biggest fans - Investing in fan analytics starts to make sense here. Identify your biggest fans across streaming, socials and live events so you can target and reach them directly. Tools: OpenStage.

• Merch sales - You can upgrade to higher-quality merch providers (e.g. Apliiq) but keep it on-demand so you’re not distracted by managing a full-stack merch operation. Try setting up your own branded store (Single, Bandzoogle).

• Vinyl - Decide whether vinyl makes sense for your audience. Start with simple designs and small run press plants (Vinyl Press).

• Digital sales - Bandcamp is still great, but with a bigger audience you can now funnel fans to places that feel more like an extension of your world. Try [Untitled]’s new sales tool.

• Community channel - You can begin to experiment with community channels to engage your early fans. BUT! It’s really important to keep it simple. Choose one channel that feels authentic and manageable to you. It could be livestreaming (Nero, Twitch), a community hub (Single, Discord), or exclusive content (Patreon, Substack).

Caution: this is where artists burn themselves out trying to do too much. Fans don’t want multiple channels, and artists cannot keep it up. Pick one and commit to it.

• Bonus: Communicate - If you’ve been collecting fan data (emails and phone numbers), now is a good time to experiment with CRM services that allow you to reach your fans. Laylo is a good first tool for communicating directly to your audience.

3. Large independent artist, manager or label

At this point, you’re a major independent artist with a dedicated fan base. You can scale your world and start to get creative with how you connect with fans.

You might also be a manager or label juggling multiple artists with solid fan bases. Your artists are on tour, they’re in different release cycles, and they’re growing audiences in several different places. You need systems for scale, optimization and automation.

• Scale your data and organization - You’ll need the higher tiers of artist data services like OpenStage or Chartmetrics to manage multiple artist datasets. Use tools like Klaviyo for automating emails across different artist mailing lists.

• Scale merch and vinyl - Physical sales should be a consistent, sustainable business at this stage. You may want to upgrade to professional merch partners (Sandbag, Above Board) and get more control of the fulfilment process. Scale vinyl production and experiment with bundled merch, collectible variations and limited editions.

• Digital sales - With a larger fan base, you can experiment with new digital rollouts. For example, try “pay-what-you-want” models with EVEN.

• Own your ticketing - Where possible, you can go direct-to-fan with tickets and live events. Use ITM or Ticket Tailor to throw launch parties and control your ticketing data. Use DICE to get better insights into ticket sales.

• Own your communication - When artists are in release cycles and tour cycles, you need to own and sync the communication channels. Email, SMS, notifications all need to be streamlined and consistent. (Laylo, Sesh, Klaviyo).

• Double down on your core community channel - Artists should still focus on one key community channel, but you now have a bigger influence over where your fans gather. You can apply to curated, intimate channels (Medallion, Vault.fm). Or scale up your existing community channel (Patreon, Discord, FanCircles, livestreaming). Try different monetization strategies and scale work works.

4. Megastars and major labels

This is stage where multiple channels and superfan strategies start to make sense. There is large demand for artist access, VIP content, and premium merchandise. The D2F channels are international and personalized. Every D2F channel is its own business to manage and optimize.

• Fan data - Some major labels will use in-house software using custom CRM and dashboards. Connected APIs from multiple services, built on AWS, to get a 360 view on all fan touchpoints.

• Merch - Majors often own the entire fulfilment stack (e.g. Universal runs international merch and fashion through its Bravado brand). Megastars can launch custom artist brands, regional merch variations, and personalized products (IYK). Employ dynamic pricing and recommendation engines. Chart-positions matter so you can partner with chart-eligible merch companies (Serenade).

• Vinyl - Superstar artists are increasingly using limited editions, color variants, and luxury bundled merch packages to increase first-week sales figures. Most major labels still partner with giant vinyl plants (Gotta Groove, Record Industry), while some are building their own plants to control the process.

• Community - Multiple channels (Discord, Patreon, FanCircles), as well as expanding to international channels (Weverse, Bubble). You’re managing several premium tier content subscriptions, VIP access, behind-the-scenes content, localized international communities, with full-time community managers. Some major labels, like WMG, are trying to build their own superfan apps to capture this share.

• Fan-led communities - It’s not just the artist anymore; fans maintain their own spin-off accounts and communities. You need community management platforms (Levellr) just to stay on top.

• Ticketing - Live Nation custom integrations, VIP packages, international personalization.

As you can see … the strategy and the tool stacks are very different depending on where you are in your career.

Unfortunately, you can’t blindly follow Fred Again’s latest D2F campaign (even though it’s probably genius). He gets to be creative at a massive scale because he built the foundation early in his career, and grew the pyramid as his career took off.

Thanks for reading!

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on LinkedIn. See you next week with another music industry report.

Every Monday we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re exploring which companies and startups will play a big role in the year ahead. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

The story of 2020 - 2025 in music was a whirlwind of chaos.

We lived through a shut-down of live music.

Everyone moved online, started live-streaming and joined the metaverse.

TikTok exploded and turned music into 10-second viral moments.

Our digital future accelerated by a decade in the space of a few months.

Innovation went into overdrive and venture capital threw millions at anyone with a pitch deck. Wall Street started buying Justin Bieber catalog.

Then AI got good.

Really good.

Suddenly anyone could create a song as quickly as typing a sentence, leaving the music industry with yet another existential crisis, and the major labels launched their biggest lawsuits since the piracy era.

It was a whirlwind.

So … what’s next?

Where do we go from here and what’s the story of 2026?

Well, I think it’s finally time for the dust to settle.

2026 will be a year of consolidation. Startups are getting acquired. Big players are reclaiming their positions. The froth and craziness has slowed down. Funding is going to core infrastructure and legal frameworks are being built.

With that in mind, I mapped out some of the companies that could shape and define the next year in music.

Note: as always with these maps, treat them as a starting point to explore. This is not (remotely) an exhaustive list, but a visualisation of how the big narratives in music might unfold in 2026. If you think I got something wrong or missed some key players, I’d love to hear it.

Part 1: Generative AI

In each category, we’ll start with key themes that will drive the narrative in 2026, followed by the companies positioned to ride these trends.

💡 Key theme #1: Legal battles turn to settlements. All the big music AI platforms are now negotiating deals with the majors and large indie organizations. 2026 is the year that early frameworks and blueprints will start to be established.

💡 Key theme #2: AI platforms try to break into consumption and discovery. We’re going to see Suno and the other big companies try to build music consumption, discovery and social networks within their apps. We may see the early signs of stealing market share from Spotify, YouTube and other music consumption platforms.

• Suno - Suno is now generating 7 million AI tracks every day (more than Spotify’s entire catalog every two weeks). The company has settled its lawsuit with Warner Music, but talks with Universal and Sony are still ongoing. These deals will likely establish a basic framework for licensing and payments going forward. Suno is also quietly positioning itself as a music discovery and social platform, which could create a disruptive new channel for music consumption.

• Udio - Udio has been on a legal spree, signing deals with Universal, Warner, and now Merlin. With those agreements in place, Udio will relaunch later this year with a new focus. Instead of pure music generation, it will focus on remixing and customizing music licensed from its partners.

• Aiode - The era of launching music AI products without licensing agreements is over. Newer platforms like Aiode are positioning themselves as the “ethical” AI platform, with consent-based training and royalties from day one.

Part 2. Generative AI tracking and enforcement

💡 Key theme #1: Ethical / compliant AI is the baseline. Startups will no longer be able to launch without licensing in place.

💡 Key theme #2: Attribution. Conversation has turned to attribution and enforcement. How do we fairly identify and compensate artists when their work is used to generate AI outputs, and how do we clamp down on infringements?

• Musical AI - Musical AI is an attribution layer for generative AI. It verifies which copyright has been used to train a model, and splits payments to the rights holders. This will be an essential layer for any music AI model going forward.

• Sound Patrol - Sound Patrol is a “surveillance system” to keep track of copyright infringements in relation to AI. It uses neural fingerprints to detect whether generative AI outputs have been created using unlicensed music.

• Vermillio - A platform to track and remove any unauthorised AI content, including music. Vermillio was backed by Sony Music last year.

Part 3. Direct-to-fan

💡 Key theme #1: Consolidation. The years of fragmented D2F startups will consolidate among a few major players.

💡 Key theme #2: Existing companies adding D2F products. Traditional music companies will begin adding D2F features to expand and capture market share.

• Bandcamp - Despite the chaos (and some backlash) over Bandcamp’s ownership changes, the platform is still leading the D2F movement. Artist payouts have doubled since 2020. Sales hit $209 million alone last year via 14 million digital album sales and 1.5 million vinyl sales.

• [Untitled] - [Untitled] has become one of the most popular ways for artists to share work-in-progress music with each other. But this year it’s entering the D2F scene. The company just announced it will allow sales through its app, and could capture a decent share of the D2F market.

• Sesh - Sesh enables artists to communicate with fans directly to their phone lockscreen via wallet messaging.

• Laylo - Laylo helps artists and labels sell tickets, merch and content direct to fans, generating $1 billion in D2F sales so far. It also allows artists to communicate with fans directly via SMS and email.

• EVEN - Dozens of D2F startups popped up over the last five years, but EVEN is one of the few that broke out. EVEN runs a pay-what-you-want model for digital music, content, and exclusive access. NBA star Kyrie Irving just paid $11k for Larussel’s new album using the platform.

• FUGA + Single - This is a key example of legacy music companies investing in D2F. FUGA is one of the largest music distribution platforms, but it recently struck a partnership with Single, enabling artists to deliver their music straight to their Shopify store. It brings digital distribution and D2F closer together.

Part 4: Superfan

Note: we’ve separated direct-to-fan and superfan in this list. D2F companies are more transactional — allowing artists to sell directly to their fanbase. Superfan tools are specifically those that bring fans deeper into their inner circle.

💡 Key theme #1: Consolidation. Fans don’t want to bounce between dozens of different apps and platforms, while artists don’t want to manage multiple fan channels. In 2026, we’ll see a few big winners emerge.

• Nero - Livestreaming spiked during the pandemic but it’s remained a huge channel for engaging fans. Artists can stream on YouTube, Twitch, and socials where their fans already live. Nero is capitalizing on this, helping artists manage and monetize their livestreams. They’ve generated $2.3 million+ for artists so far.

• Weverse - Weverse is the dominant fan engagement platform in South Korea. It has 10 million monthly active users who use the app to engage with artists and exclusive content. Weverse is now setting its sights on expanding into North America and Europe.

• DearU - DearU also has its roots in South Korea and the KPOP audience. Its main product, Bubble, is a messaging app for artists to share content with fans. The company raised ~$92 million last year in a deal with SM Entertainment.

• Substack - Substack has become an unlikely home for musicians sharing their personal writing. It started out with legacy indie artists like Wilco and Patti Smith, but it’s growing fast. Charli XCX and Rosalia began posting long, personal essays on Substack in late 2025.

• Vault.fm - Launched by James Blake with a ton of hype in 2024, the platform has quietly onboarded a huge roster of artists with “vaults” to share unreleased music with fans.

Part 5: Production

💡 Key theme #1: Consolidation. Big players are acquiring smaller AI startups to supercharge their existing offering.

💡 Key theme #2: Collaboration. A suite of products are emerging for co-creation.

• Splice - Splice has been on an acquisition spree, most recently buying up AI voice company KitsAI. The big players will continue to consolidate and acquire the best tools.

• LANDR - LANDR’s suite of AI tools and plugins is expanding to co-creation. They just launched an AI brainstorming tool and expanded its network of musicians-for-hire.

• Moises - Expanding its lead as the dominant stem separation tool.

• Musiversal - Book live musicians to play on your track.

• Bandlab - Social music platform for co-creation.

Part 6: Catalog

💡 Key theme #1: Fewer mega-deals, more mid-level acquisitions. The gold-rush for high-profile catalog has likely peaked, but we’re seeing capital flow down to the mid-tier level. Expect lots of smaller acquisitions, and boutique investment firms popping up.

💡 Key theme #2: Deployment. Private equity companies like Bain raised a warchest in 2025. That money will get deployed in 2026.

💡 Key theme #3: Catalog management. Big players who acquired large catalog over the last few years are now exploiting them in new ways, giving us new blueprints for how music can be used as collateral in the financial markets.

• Recognition - Hipgnosis has been rebranded as Recognition, and recently sold $372m in bonds, backed by its catalog (RHCP, Justin Bieber). It has a credit rating of A (high quality, low default risk), giving us a key insight into music-as-collateral. Recognition says it will be more selective and disciplined about acquisition going forward, indicating the era of splashy deals is probably over.

• Duetti - Duetti acquires catalog from independent musicians. The company just announced another round of funding, taking its total to $635 million. It suggests that capital is moving down the stack from superstars to mid-tier artists.

• Bain Capital - Private Equity monster Bain Capital teamed up with Warner Music last year, raising $1.2 billion to acquire catalog. That money will get deployed throughout 2026. Watch where that money goes to get clues into how the catalog market is evolving.

• Bella Figura - Bella Figura is a boutique catalog firm, focusing on a smaller, curated roster of music rights. We likely see more of these companies launch in 2026.

• Aria Protocol - Tokenizing catalog royalty claims and putting them onchain. Allowing anyone to buy and sell music rights in songs by Justin Bieber, Miley Cyrus and Blackpink.

Part 7: Live

💡 Key theme #1: Secondary market clampdown. The UK is introducing strict laws on secondary market resales, and AI startups are increasingly tackling this issue.

💡 Key theme #2: Stadium tours are thriving (+60% growth in 2025), but grassroots and mid-tier venues will need more investment.

• Ticket Fairy - Providing advances to venues to bridge the gap between booking artists and ticket sales. This is crucial for helping grassroots and mid-level venues to keep operating.

• Live Nation - Stadium tours are dominating, but Live Nation has invested $1 billion in purpose-built arenas and smaller theatres to re-ignite demand for mid-size acts. Many of these will open in 2026. Live Nation is also retro-fitting venues for livestreaming.

• KNOT Technologies - AI infrastructure for ticketing companies to track demand and prevent value leaking into resales. Secondary markets are losing market share. Just raised $1 million pre-seed

Part 8: Marketing, data and admin

💡 Key theme #1: More visibility and transparency into artist data across multiple platforms.

💡 Key theme #2: AI improving most backend admin and organizational tools.

• OpenStage - Aggregate all your fan data from live shows, socials, merch and listeners. Find cross-overs and most engaged fan groups.

• Un:hurd - Plan release strategies, pitch playlists and get deep analytics all in one place.

• DISCO - Organizing and sharing music files with industry contacts. Fast becoming the main trusted way to receive files among the music industry.

Part 9: Streaming

💡 Key theme #1: Spotify continues to stall. Growth at the major streaming platforms has slowed and listener fatigue is setting in. The door is open for challenger platforms.

💡 Key theme #2: Niche wins. Niche streaming services (either niche genres or niche customer demographic) may capture some of this market share. We’ll also see curated streaming try a comeback.

• Netflix - Netflix is expected to launch its music streaming service to rival Spotify and Apple Music early this year.

• Audiomack - Niche challenger platforms will gain traction in 2026. Audiomack, with its focus on hip hop, rap and global music is among the fastest-growing, hitting 50 million monthly users.

• Qobuz - Another niche streaming service, focused on the highest-quality sound.

• Medallion FM - After building fan clubs for Jungle, Santigold and Overmono, Medallion is now rolling out a curated music streaming service starting with unreleased music from a select roster of artists.

Part 10: Ones to watch

Below are several startups that could make waves in 2026.

• Endel - AI generated soundtracks for sleep and wellbeing.

• InTempo - Music wellbeing app which links soundscapes to your heartbeat.

• RelicsXYZ - Selling digital music items in Roblox.

• IYK - NFC chipped merchandise.

• Airbuds - Explosive, viral music social app to see what your friends are listening to.

• Unisound - Future-first publishing, sync and collection startup.

• Dune - An “artist stock market.” Stake money on an artist and earn if their listening statistics go up.

• ITM - An all-in-one service to sell tickets, merch, content and more.

• Recoupable - AI agents for the music industry.

• Nina - Direct-to-fan music store using crypto rails.

Thanks for reading!

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on Twitter. See you next week with another music industry report.

Every Monday we send you a deep dive on where the music industry is going. Today we’re turning off the algorithms and going back to analog with a deep dive on the vinyl resurgence. If you find this useful, please forward to your friends or colleagues.

Criminal Records is a small independent record store in Atlanta.

It’s been selling records and comic books for 34 years, hosting intimate and sweaty live shows, stripped-back acoustic sets, and vinyl signings. Like many independent record stores, it’s the beating heart of the local indie music community.

You’ve probably never heard of it, but …

It’s quietly one of the most important venues in music history.

Back in 2007, Criminal Records owner Eric Levin began to worry about the change in music consumption. Physical albums had peaked in 1999 and sales were dropping dramatically.

Napster and music pirating was rampant and almost no-one was buying vinyl records any more, Levin said in a later interview. “It was a time when iTunes was ascendant and digital was the sexy buzzword.” [1]

Levin and several other record store owners gathered in Baltimore to come up with ideas to re-ignite the physical music industry. Inspired by Free Comic Book Day, they had an idea …

Record Store Day.

A year of planning later, 300 independent stores opened their doors to an annual celebration of the vinyl format. Metallica played a special show to launch the event, while R.E.M. and Vampire Weekend released special edition records. Over in the UK, legendary record store Rough Trade joined in, turning Record Store Day into a global event.

Since that small gathering in Baltimore in 2007, everything changed.

Vinyl sales started going up.

And they continued to go up every year … for 19 years in a row.

Music data company Luminate just released its figures for 2025, confirming that vinyl sales grew again in 2025, making it 19 years straight growth. [2]

This chart shows that music fans crave something deeper than streaming…

• Curation > Algorithms.

• Active listening > Passive listening

• Albums > Singles

• Permanence > Ephemeral

• Ownership > infinite access

• IRL > digital

What started as a small idea in Baltimore to save the vinyl format, revealed something that all music fans knew to be true:

Fans want to choose what music defines them. Not be fed it.

Contents

In today’s report, we’ll track the timeline of vinyl’s resurgence, explain how vinyl consumption is changing, and how you can capitalize on the music industry’s most valuable demographic.

• Part 1: Vinyl Resurgence Timeline

• Part 2: The data - who’s buying and why?

• Part 3: The data - where are sales happening?

• Part 4: Music’s most valuable demographic.

• Part 5: Cases studies (Taylor Swift and Rough Trade)

• Part 6: The future - what’s next for vinyl?

• Part 7: How to capitalize (for artists, music industry, and entrepreneurs)

• Part 8: Companies to watch.

Let’s get into it.

Part 1. The vinyl resurgence timeline

• 2008 - 2011 The Record Store Day era - RSD revived initial demand for vinyl records and went on to become the biggest global music event in the world.

• 2012 - 2018 Millennial nostalgia era - Millennials entered their earning years and became the largest record buyers. The vintage aesthetic drove culture and Urban Outfitters became the second-largest vinyl retailer.

• 2020 - 2023 The pandemic surge - Vinyl outsells CDs for the first time. Gen Z becomes a larger buying force and social-media signalling across TikTok and Instagram accelerates sales. Major artists like Taylor Swift and Harry Styles become the biggest sellers.

• 2023 - 2026 Stabilization - The rapid acceleration stabilizes into steady growth. Vinyl is now a core part of most major release strategies.

Part 2. The data - who’s buying and why?

Gen Z - Escaping digital life through tangible experiences

• Gen Z is the fastest growing demographic of vinyl buyers.

• They see vinyl as an antidote to algorithms and streaming services. They want to get offline and embrace real, tangible experiences.

• 61% say that buying vinyl “improves their mental wellbeing,” higher than any other generation. [4]

• 84% of Gen Z buyers shop in record stores, emphasizing the IRL community feel of music collecting.

• Despite the “offline” trend, Gen Z are also the most likely to share their collections across social media with unboxing and curation content on TikTok and Instagram.

Millennials - The prolific nostalgia buyers

• Millennials are still the biggest vinyl buyers (37%), particularly those with higher income (above $100k).

• This generation is now entering its peak income years and willing to spend on limited edition, luxury packages, and re-issues.

• Millennials are driven by nostalgia, buying records that recapture their teenage years and music their parents listened to (Pink Floyd, Fleetwood Mac, Nirvana).

• They’re also driven by curation. Millennials are more selective about their vinyl purchases, building curated record libraries.

Part 3. Where are sales happening?

The majority of vinyl sales are still driven by independent record stores (40% of sales).

Mass retailers like Amazon and Walmart are second (35% of sales).

Third, and fastest growing, is direct-to-consumer (15% of sales).

We are increasingly seeing artists and labels sell records through their own channels, either through their own merch stores, or via platforms like Bandcamp.

It’s noticeable that music startups like [Untitled] are also entering the D2C arena. The app recently announced that artists could sell music and vinyl through the platform [6]. The race to capture the growing D2C market is still wide open.

Part 4. The music industry’s most valuable demographic

The vinyl buyer is the most valuable music fan.

First and foremost, vinyl is the highest-profit item in the merch stand. At a mid-tier price-point ~$20-$30, selling vinyl is more profitable than T-shirts, CDs, cassettes or posters.

Secondly, vinyl buyers are often repeat-buyers. The most engaged fan will buy the limited edition, the extra color, the bundled merch pack, the luxury version.

Third, vinyl buyers are more likely to buy tickets. Selling vinyl isn’t just a one-time transaction, you’re building a connection with a fan who will likely buy a ticket next time you’re in town.

Vinyl buyers generate 3.5x more value than the average music streamer [7].

Takeaway: this is why direct-to-fan matters. You need to know who’s buying your records because they can be life-time supporters.

Part 5. Case studies

The major artist: Taylor Swift

Taylor Swift sold 1 of every 15 records in 2023 [5]. Her album Life of a Showgirl was the first record (in the modern vinyl era) to reach 1 million unit sales in its first week. Vinyl is also the biggest driver of her first-week album sales.

Swift’s strategy was rooted in personalization. She sold 27 different variations of the physical album — with eight different vinyl formats. Each had unique colors, limited editions, merch bundles and premium pricing to target high-spend superfans. Many fan purchases multiple records to “collect them all,” with some luxury editions priced at ~$85.

Swift owned the distribution by selling all pre-orders through her own website, and driving all limited-edition or premium purchases through her own direct-to-fan channels.

Takeaway: Major artists can experiment with mass production, luxury pricing, and large-scale direct-to-fan channels.

The independent: Rough Trade

Rough Trade is probably the most famous name in vinyl, but the company goes way beyond records to capture the broader intentions of deep, authentic music fans.

In addition to their core offering, Rough Trade has launched membership programs, collector events, limited edition re-issues, books and merchandise.

They’re going deeper into that psyche of tangible collecting and IRL experiences.

Takeaway: vinyl sales are indicative of a much deeper desire of music fans. It’s not just about the vinyl – it’s the curation, the physical, the community, collecting, connection, the IRL experience and expressing the fan’s identity.

Part 6. The future: what’s next for vinyl?

With vinyl now entering a period of stabilization, what can we expect going forward? Here’s a few trends that are playing out.

• Vinyl goes luxury - The average price of vinyl has gone from ~$30 in 2020 to ~$40 today. Manufacturing costs are part of this rise, but it’s also because labels are increasingly positioning vinyl as luxury merch.

• Eco-friendly vinyl - 71% of Gen Z say they will pay extra for eco-friendly vinyl. Traditional materials may even face regulation or restriction in the future.

• Short-run pressing - It’s still expensive for independent artists to produce records, but we’re increasingly seeing minimum orders drop from 100 units to 30-50 units. High demand and tech improvements will continue to make vinyl more accessible for smaller artists and their teams.

• Gaming overlap - We’re beginning to see gaming soundtracks released on vinyl. Expect this overlap to grow.

• Eclectic growth - Jazz and classical sales are growing faster than other segments. African American, Asian and Latin American buyers are the fastest-growing demographic of vinyl customers.

Part 7. How to capitalize on the continued strength of vinyl

For Independent artists

• Search for short-run pressing plants in your region to experiment with 50-100 units.

• Launch vinyl pre-orders 3-4 months in advance to fund manufacture and gauge demand.

• Use color variants to create a collection for superfans.

• Launch on Bandcamp Friday to maximize your margins.

• Create an unboxing experience or social media moment to encourage sharing.

For Labels and music professionals

• Analyze your streaming catalog to identify albums with vinyl re-issue potential.

• Monitor outlets like Discogs for re-issue demand.

• Think in collections. Personalized colors, limited editions, bundled merch and pre-order incentives.

• Create Record Store Day exclusives.

• Plan in-store events and listening parties for new releases.

• Do the extra work to prioritize independent record stores. They drive the most sales and have higher margins.

Opportunities for investors and founders

• There’s still a gap in the market for a dominant vinyl manufacturing SaaS platform (connect artists with pressing plants).

• Direct-to-consumer is the fastest-growing outlet. Look for companies or tools that can capture this growth.

• Inventory management tools.

• Niche vinyl subscription services.

• Vinyl curation apps and platforms.

• Vinyl care and accessories.

Part 8. Companies to watch in this space

• Key Production - the leading EU manufacturer, with 50% growth in 2025.

• Vinyl Alliance - industry collective for standardization, regulation and research.

• Third Man Pressing, Cascade Record Pressing - Major US pressing plants.

• Citizen Vinyl, United Record Pressing - Bio vinyl pressing.

• Rough Trade - leading UK record store.

• Bandcamp - Direct-to-consumer platform.

• VNYL Inc - Subscription services.

• [Untitled] - Newly launched D2C vinyl sales.

• Discogs - Leading secondary market.

• Vinylify - Custom vinyl press for independents.

• Vinyl Press UK - Short-run vinyl press (100 units).

Thanks for reading!

If you found this useful, please do forward it to your colleagues or share with your friends. If you have questions or thoughts, just reply to this email or reach out to me on Twitter. See you next week with another music industry report.