This is genuinely so bittersweet for me writing this right now. I want to say thank you to each and every one of you who has supported and believed in us here at Stealing Lines over the past four years.

When I first started creating content around football and sports betting not in my wildest dreams did I ever think I would get burnt out by the same thing I originally spent all my time doing but I guess here we are. This is my official “retirement” speech and I’m not just going to go away completely but my entire time in this industry is certainly going to take a backseat.

For those wondering how I am doing, I would be lying if I said everything was perfect right now but things are certainly better. For the first time in a while I feel energized about new passions and have a good support system around me. Sometimes doors have to close in order for other ones to open and resisting change is something I’m deeply familiar with, but it’s necessary.

I’m genuinely stoked about creating this March Madness guide, not only as a thank you to every single one of you that has followed me through my journey here, but also it’s just the best few weeks in all of sports in my opinion.

With Stealing Lines shutting down, this obviously puts the question of what happens to this March Madness guide in the future and I don’t have a clear answer just now, but I’m sure I will post about it on Twitter (never calling it X) @dalton_kates if I ever do.

So if any company reading this wants to pay me some $$ to host it on their site in the future we can chat.

Thank you to Mikey for hopping in this year and taking my role with the football props. It was no surprise that he did well and found his groove considering he was the one who taught me everything I need to know about fantasy football and originally helped me in the space. While Ben and I built Stealing Lines, Mikey has been such an awesome addition to have with his NBA bets and now football bets. Truly one of the smartest people in the entire industry.

One last big thank you to Ben for believing in me and wanting to start this venture with me. Ben was always someone I looked up to in the industry and this was such an awesome opportunity to work side by side with him. The perspective Ben has on football is second to none and as much as I felt I knew about football, anytime I talked with him I felt like I was behind the curve in some way shape or form which constantly forced me to be even more diligent and research in my takes.

Oh and one final more shoutout to Kyle Pitts for finally having a good season the moment I step away from the industry. Poetic.

Regardless one last hoorah and let’s go out with a bang with this March Madness!

Love you guys.

Three Years In — How Has This Guide Done For Your Bracket?

2023

The article called it one of the weakest tournaments in recent memory and used that to find value where others couldn’t. Connecticut was identified as the team that truly checked every box — balanced, elite on both ends, no red flags. They were a 4 seed. UConn won the championship and won every single game by double digits — the most dominant tournament run in modern history.

The red flag models were surgical. All four Paper Tigers were gone by the second weekend. Purdue, flagged in the Preseason AP Poll section, lost to 16-seed FDU — one of the biggest upsets in tournament history. Marquette, the other Preseason AP Poll flag, lost in round 2. Duke and Kentucky, both called out as Late Bloomers, were eliminated in rounds 1 and 2. Florida Atlantic — specifically circled as a long shot worth a look — made the Final Four at 40/1 odds. I finished in the 99.6th percentile of brackets.

2024

The “Teams That Check Every Box” section landed on two teams: UConn and Purdue. The article was clear — one of these two should win it all. UConn won the championship. Purdue was the runner-up. Both perfect profile picks were playing for the title on the last night of the season. Kentucky was called a “massive fade at all costs” and lost in round 1 to 14-seed Oakland. Iowa State was the lone Preseason AP Poll flag — called one of the biggest red flags in the field. They never made the Final Four, consistent with zero of these teams ever doing so in the history of the model.

2025

The article made a claim that turned out to be true: “If there was ever a tournament in which all four number one seeds could make the Final Four, this would be the tournament.” Last year we told readers to trust the data and go chalk when everyone else expected chaos. All four 1-seeds made the Final Four for only the second time ever. Florida won the championship. Missouri, Clemson, and Memphis were gone before the Sweet 16. St. John’s, I labeled as one of the biggest fades in the history of the tournament, didn’t even make it out of the first weekend.

Oh and we cashed this bad boy.

Three years. Three tournaments. The “Teams That Check Every Box” model has produced the national champion or runner-up every single year. The red flag models have consistently identified the teams everyone else is picking that quietly have no business going far.

If you were in your March Madness pools with your friends, family or colleagues reading this the past few years chances are you have done extremely well.

Let’s hope we can find similar success again this year!

Overview of the 2026 Tournament

Every year I put this guide together I try to give you a honest assessment of what kind of tournament we are walking into. Some years are more chaotic than others. Some years are top heavy. Some years feel like anybody could win.

This year is different. And I mean that in a way I have never been able to say before (just like last year).

I went back through every tournament in KenPom’s history dating back to 2002 and ran the numbers on the Adjusted Efficiency Margin across every tournament field. What I found genuinely shocked me — and I don’t say that lightly after four years of doing this.

Let me show you what I mean.

The average AEM across all 68 tournament teams this year is 16.84. That sounds like a number that doesn’t mean much on its own so let me put it in context. In 2023 the average was 14.21. In 2024 it was 14.49. Even last year — which I called one of the strongest fields we had ever seen — it was 17.07. So the overall field quality is roughly in line with recent years. That’s not the story.

The story is what’s happening at the top.

This year there are 8 teams with an AEM of 30 or higher. To put that in perspective — in 2023 there were zero. In 2024 there were three. Last year there were six. Eight is the most ever recorded in a single tournament field.

There are 20 teams with an AEM of 25 or higher. Last year’s record was 15. The year before that it was 9. We have essentially doubled what was previously the norm for elite teams in a single field.

But here is the number that really tells the story. The gap between the top 3 teams and the rest of the 65-team field is 22.19 points. That is the largest separation ever recorded between the elite and the rest of the field in KenPom history. Last year it was 21.32 — which I thought was extraordinary. In 2023 it was just 14.73. This year’s top 3 are operating on a completely different level than anything we have seen.

Here’s what that actually looks like when you put it on paper:

• Duke — AEM +38.90 (highest ever recorded entering a tournament)

• Arizona — AEM +37.66

• Michigan — AEM +37.59

• Florida — AEM +33.79

That fourth team — Florida, the reigning national champion — has an AEM of +33.79. In 2023 the best team in the entire field had an AEM of +29.86. Florida would have been the best team in that tournament by nearly 4 full points and they are the fourth best team this year.

Let that sink in for a second.

The #4 team in this year’s field would have been the best team in the entire country in most tournaments we have ever seen.

So what does this mean for how we fill out our brackets?

It means this year more than any other year I have done this guide, the data is screaming at us to trust the top. I know that sounds boring. I know everyone wants to find the Cinderella. I know people are going to be putting all kinds of lower seeds in their Final Four. And chaos will still happen — it always does. But if there was ever a year to embrace the chalk and trust the profiles at the top, this is that year (similar to last year).

The cream has never been this far above the rest of the milk.

Understanding this concept is going to be very key when filling out a bracket this year. We will use the data throughout this guide to give you the best possible framework for navigating what could be one of the most historic March Madness tournaments we have ever seen - not because of the chaos, but because of how dominant these top teams are.

And while last year it was specifically the one seeds who had these elite profiles, this year it just shows how much better the top 20 teams are than the rest of field than previously.

So what does this also mean for the early rounds of the bracket?

Less likely to be more upsets in the first couple rounds.

I hate that this is becoming the norm in March Madness brackets, but it feels the last few years have been super boring and it’s been very hard to find the dark horses that have a chance. This is another year like that and it seems NIL may be playing a big factor here at separating the talent to the top in college basketball.

What this might allow is some more variance between the 2-5 seeds this year and seeing maybe one or two go further than expected.

I am really struggling to find any teams seeded 5 or lower that I think has a realistic shot of getting upset in the first round. It still may happen (and probably will) but I’m certainly not betting on it and in fact would prefer to bet the opposite.

The truth is what we are seeing a trend of is that these first round upsets from mid majors we came to know and love are likely a thing of the past.

Will it still happen? Absolutely. But the frequency is likely to take a significant hit (Thanks NIL).

What does a National Champion look like?

I know this is a really crazy concept to wrap our head around, but National Champions are generally some of the best teams in the country. And not only that, these National Champions are elite both offensively and defensively. Having no weaknesses is key in this tournament to sustain the chaos that ensues.

Offense is important

Dating back to 2002 using KenPom, we have seen 23 of 24 (96%) of National Champions be 21st or better in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE).

But what if we whittle this down even more?

16 of these 24 (67%) champions were top six in AOE. Having an elite offense is incredibly important. Being able to be efficient can help prevent teams from having a “bad” shooting day more than other offenses.

Here are the top six teams in AOE this year:

• Purdue

• Illinois

• Alabama

• Duke

• Arizona

• Arkansas

Defense is also important

Dating back to 2002, all 24 National Champions finished in the top 44 of adjusted defensive efficiency. Being elite on one side of the ball can certainly help you dominate games early on in the tournament, but if you have a weakness on either offense or defense you’re likely to get exposed by teams who are good at both.

While the mantra is “Defense wins championships” — and it certainly helps — it doesn’t move the needle as much as having a top offense. Only 10 of 24 (42%) champions had a top 10 defense.

For defense we are generally looking for something along the lines of “Is your defense good enough?”

Who are our potential national champions?

So knowing that you essentially have to be top 21 in adjusted offense and top 44 in adjusted defense, who are the teams this year that fit that criteria?

• Duke (4th off/2nd def)

• Arizona (5th off/3rd def)

• Michigan (8th off/1st def)

• Florida (9th off/6th def)

• Houston (14th off/5th def)

• Iowa State (21st off/4th def)

• Illinois (2nd off/28th def)

• Purdue (1st off/36th def)

• Vanderbilt (7th off/31st def)

If you’re putting someone as a national champion it’s highly likely it comes from this list.

I’d recommend checking out Connor Allen’s thread here which goes over similar stuff:

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

On KenPom there is a metric that blends both offensive and defensive metrics into a “Net Rating.” This net rating basically shows how dominant you are compared to your peers in one simple efficiency metric.

21 of the past 24 (88%) winners have been in the top 6 of Adjusted Efficiency Margin.

Those teams this year:

• Duke (AEM #1 — highest ever recorded on KenPom dating back to 2002)

• Arizona (AEM #2)

• Michigan (AEM #3)

• Florida (AEM #4)

• Houston (AEM #5)

• Iowa State (AEM #6)

This is genuinely historic. Duke’s AEM of +38.90 is the highest figure KenPom has ever recorded entering a tournament.

What does a Final Four team look like?

All the things that are important for a champion will be important here, but the qualifications are a little easier. There’s more chaos with some of these Final Four teams and it seems like almost every year we get a random team that nobody predicted making it this far.

Here’s some data behind what types of teams made it to the Final Four since 2002 for Adjusted Efficiency Margin:

• 79 of 92 (85.9%) Final Four teams were in the top 15 of Adjusted Efficiency Margin

• 76 of 92 (82.6%) Final Four teams had an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 22.0 or higher

• 58 of 92 (63.0%) Final Four teams had an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 25.0 or higher

• 69 of 92 (75.0%) Final Four teams were top 10 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin

• 51 of 92 (55.4%) Final Four teams were top 5 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin

For offense and defense:

• 75 of 92 (81.5%) Final Four teams were top 30 in adjusted offense

• 75 of 92 (81.5%) Final Four teams were top 30 in adjusted defense

• 62 of 92 (67.4%) Final Four teams were top 30 in both adjusted offense and defense

• 88 of 92 (95.7%) Final Four teams were top 30 in either adjusted offense or defense

• 52 of 92 (56.5%) Final Four teams were top 10 in adjusted offense

• 46 of 92 (50.0%) Final Four teams were top 10 in adjusted defense

• 73 of 92 (79.3%) Final Four teams were top 10 in either adjusted offense or defense

• 67 of 92 (72.8%) Final Four teams were top 20 in adjusted offense

• 67 of 92 (72.8%) Final Four teams were top 20 in adjusted defense

• 46 of 92 (50.0%) Final Four teams were top 20 in both adjusted offense and defense

• 11 of 92 (12.0%) Final Four teams were outside the top 50 in either adjusted offense or defense

• 23 of 40 (57.5%) Teams in both top 10 adjusted offense and defense made it to the Final Four

That was a lot of stats so here are the most important things. Being balanced is key. The fact only 12% of Final Four teams were outside the top 50 in either offense or defense is very important. And being elite in one thing — whether it’s offense or defense — is very key towards your ability to make the Final Four.

When we do our region by region breakdowns we will use this data as well as some other ones to help us get a good idea of who to bet on.

Strength of Schedule

Using KenPom’s Strength of Schedule NetRtg ranking, 82% of Final Four teams had a top 35 strength of schedule while 92% of Final Four teams had a top 60 strength of schedule.

I want to give a shoutout to “The Sheet” For the information every year on Strength of Schedule, it’s a massive part of my process every year for March Madness.

This year the story is dramatically different from 2025. Last year we had several top seeds flagged for weak schedules. This year almost every top team played an elite schedule. The only top 6 seeds that fall outside the top 60 in SOS this year are:

• Gonzaga (3-West) — SOS #87

• Virginia (3-Midwest) — SOS #70

That’s it. Two teams. Compare that to last year where we had a much larger group to flag. The field this year is genuinely cleaner from a schedule standpoint than anything we have seen in recent memory.

For context on how clean this year’s top seeds are:

• Kansas — SOS #1

• Alabama — SOS #2

• Michigan — SOS #3

• Florida — SOS #5

• Kentucky — SOS #6

• Purdue — SOS #7

• Texas Tech — SOS #8

• Arizona — SOS #9

• Arkansas — SOS #10

• Tennessee — SOS #11

• Duke — SOS #15

When the 1-seed with the softest schedule is ranked 15th nationally in strength of schedule, you know the top of this field is legitimate.

Other Red Flags to be Aware Of

Half the battle of creating a March Madness bracket is choosing who NOT to have going far. Identifying the type of teams that have the potential to get upset early on can be a massive advantage against your peers.

I want to note here than Ken Barkley is the one who introduced Paper Tigers and the Late Bloomers as a concept in March Madness to help identify profiles of teams to stay away from. I am simply a relayer of information with an added layer of deep dive into these phenomenons.

Paper Tigers

A quick reminder of what a Paper Tiger is:

• Top six seed in your region

• Top 25 raw offense

• Outside the top 150 in raw defense

There have now been 36 teams to qualify as a Paper Tiger since 2002. Below are some results:

• 2 of 36 made the Final Four (5.6%)

• 7 of 36 made the Elite Eight (19.4%)

The teams this year that qualify as Paper Tigers:

• Alabama off #3, raw def #245

• Arkansas off #6, raw def #200

• Wisconsin off #11, raw def 181

How Paper Tigers Have Performed the Last Three Years

When i originally created this article in 2023, Paper Tigers was a mainstay as a massive red flag to avoid, but we have seen Paper Tigers have actually had a more active three years than the historical data would suggest.

Over the last three tournaments we have had 12 Paper Tigers total and here is how they fared:

• 1 made the Final Four (Miami 2023 — 8.3%)

• 5 made the Elite Eight (Miami, Gonzaga, Alabama x2, Illinois — 41.7%)

• 2 made the Sweet Sixteen (Purdue 2025, and Gonzaga technically)

• 5 lost in Round 1 or Round 2 ✅

On the surface that looks like Paper Tigers have been doing well. But here is the important context that changes everything.

2023 was the weakest tournament ever recorded on KenPom. Miami’s Final Four run happened in the field with the lowest average AEM in modern history. They faced no truly elite teams on their path. And when they finally did - UConn in the Final Four -they lost by 13 points. Gonzaga got smoked by 28.

2024 was similar. Alabama and Illinois both made the Elite Eight which looks impressive - until you see they both ran directly into UConn and lost by 14 and 25 points respectively. The moment they faced a truly balanced elite team it was over instantly.

The pattern is clear. Paper Tigers can survive early rounds when they get favorable matchups or when the field is weak. But the moment they face a genuinely balanced elite team they get exposed and exposed badly. Not one of these 12 teams has come within 10 points of a truly elite opponent in the late rounds.

The reason for why we are fading them says the same but probably the main reason they haven’t faltered as much is because the mid majors and lower seeds are weaker than they have ever been.

Late Bloomers

A reminder of how this works: Using BartTorvik with a cutoff date of February 15th, if a team post February 15th was ranked 10 or more spots higher than they were in the previous months of the season and are a top six seed, they qualify as a Late Bloomer.

There have been 66 teams to qualify as a Late Bloomer since 2008:

• Only 1 of 66 made the Final Four (1.5%)

• 26 of 66 lost in their first round game (39.4%)

• 43 of 66 were eliminated by their second game (65.2%)

• 42 of 66 were eliminated by a team with a lower seed (63.6%)

This year — using the full window from February 16th through March 15th — we have two teams that qualify as top 6 seeds:

• Wisconsin (5-West) — jumped +15 spots (Pre: #28 → Post: #13) 🚨

• St. John’s (5-East) — jumped +13 spots (Pre: #21 → Post: #8) 🚨

Worth noting outside the top 6 seed threshold but still remarkable: Ohio State (8-East) jumped an eye-popping +35 spots in the final month of the season.

Wisconsin is particularly noteworthy here because they carry a double red flag - they qualify as both a Late Bloomer AND a Paper Tiger. That is not a combination that inspires confidence.

Preseason AP Poll

Since 2002, 0 of 41 teams that earned a 1 or 2 seed but were NOT ranked in the preseason AP Poll have made the Final Four.

Zero. Out of 41 teams.

The good news this year: every 1 and 2 seed was ranked in the preseason top 25. No flags here. This is a meaningful difference from last year when Michigan State and St. John’s both carried this red flag.

In fact the committee did an incredible job with their preseason rankings as 22 of the 25 teams ranked in the poll made the tournament.

Teams That Check Every Box

If there is a team to choose to win it all it’s going to be in this section.

Over the past two years, 5 of 5 teams that checked every box made the Final Four — UConn and Purdue in 2024, Florida and Auburn in 2025. Florida went on to win the National Championship.

Let’s raise our standards and find the teams that check all the elite boxes:

• Top 6 in adjusted offense

• Good defense (top 44)

• Top 6 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin

• Top 35 in strength of schedule

This year we have two teams that check every strict box:

Duke — off #4, def #2, AEM #1, SOS #15

Arizona — off #5, def #3, AEM #2, SOS #9

If we squint our eyes just a tad for teams that still check nearly all these boxes but just miss the top 6 offense threshold:

Michigan — off #8, def #1, AEM #3, SOS #3

Florida — off #9, def #6, AEM #4, SOS #5 — the reigning champions, just misses top 6 offense

Houston — off #14, def #5, AEM #5, SOS #24 — elite defense, outside top 6 offense

I think it’s likely that one of these five wins it all.

It should be noted that Duke and Arizona are the only two teams that hit every strict threshold including top 6 in offense. Michigan and Florida are so close on offense they’re essentially in the same tier. And someone pointed out that teams in the top 5 of both offense AND defense have won the title 6 of the last 8 years — this year that’s Duke (4th/2nd) and Arizona (5th/3rd) who both qualify.

Duke also carries something we have never seen before — the highest Adjusted Efficiency Margin ever recorded by KenPom entering a tournament at +38.90. We have simply never seen a team this dominant on paper entering March Madness in the history of this data.

The honest truth is this year might be the hardest it has ever been to choose between these top teams because they are all genuinely elite. If I had a gun to my head it’s probably Duke or Arizona - Duke for the historic KenPom profile, Arizona for having an elite profile. But I won’t be shocked regardless, and in most of my brackets I will be having all four 1-seeds in the Final Four.

1st Half Unders

If you’re reading this guide you fit into one of two categories: looking to create a bracket to beat your friends OR you’re reading this to get some edges in the betting market.

If you’re the first then you can skip this part. This one is for my bettors.

So a big shoutout to the Sports Gambling Podcast for finding the most entertaining and profitable way to get action on every single March Madness game. Welcome to the first half unders.

The theory behind this is very simple and straightforward. For every first round game (including the play-in games) we bet the first half under for every game.

These teams are used to playing two games a week and not traveling very far for their games. Some of these teams are waiting close to a week in between games and going to locations across the country in a heightened and pressure filled environment against opponents who they are unfamiliar with. Because of this teams have a tendency to start slow in their first half of basketball in this tournament.

And the data backs it up.

If you blindly bet the first half under of every game that fits this criteria dating back to 2011 these bets are 247-170-15 for a 59.2% hit rate across 432 games. Last year alone the first half unders went 22-13-1 which was one of the better years we have seen in the entire sample.

Not every year is going to go our way, but if you blind bet these each of the past 14 years you would have been up money in the majority of those tournaments. The math simply supports this trend over a big sample.

There is no true individual game analysis behind these plays — it’s simply blind betting on the theory itself. But the theory behind it actually makes a ton of sense and has been proven to work year over year.

So if you want to join me and the boys in some fun and wager every first half under of the First Four and first round games, this is your invitation.

One note — this only applies for the first round. Anything beyond that has not been tracked and is not a theory or betting practice I subscribe to.

East Region

This entire region seems like Duke’s to lose. Knowing that Final Four teams generally have a top 10 offense or defense and are both top 50 in adjusted offense or defense it whittles this down a bit.

It should be noted that the three teams falling outside the top 10 in defense are in this region (Uconn 11th defense, St John’s 12th defense, Michigan St 13th defense).

So we have these three teams that are very close to qualifying for Final Four profiles.

Uconn is one of the more under-whelming 2 seeds I’ve seen in some time. They aren’t bad, but they just don’t strike as a team that can truly make a deep run into the Final Four.

In fact Michigan State looks just as good if not slightly better than them. I’ll likely be taking Michigan State in my Elite Eights over UConn in most of my brackets.

Kansas is the most interesting team in the field in my opinion because of Darryn Peterson. They are outside the top 50 in adjusted offense and have played better without him, but he is one of the best players in the entire tournament. If Kansas were to make a deep run it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing, but I’m betting against it.

St John’s and Louisville are just solid teams. They profile pretty well for teams who could easily make Sweet 16s and potentially Elite Eights.

The rest of the teams in the bracket are just not good enough in one area of the ball.

Ohio State should be noted they’ve been on fire recently, but that generally doesn’t matter much in the tournament.

Best Bets

Michigan State to make the Elite Eight +220 (Fanatics)

West Region

This bracket is going to be pretty straightforward for me.

Arizona is just an elite team on both offense and defense. And a trend of this bracket is these other top seeds are really good in on area and decent in another area. Not as balanced overall in this bracket.

Purdue actually profiles as a national champion and hits the thresholds being 1st in offense and 36th in defense. While they aren’t a “Paper Tiger” by pure definition they were very close to qualifying so even though the optics on them look great, they are still a team I’m at least a little wary of giving how great their profile looks.

Both Arkansas and Wisconsin are Paper Tigers.

Wisconsin has the biggest red flag profile of any top six seed this year. They qualify as a Late Bloomer, Paper Tiger and are outside the top 50 in adjusted defense. It’s very unlikely they make a deep run. And they are actually profiled very well for a first round upset, but the issue is they are facing High Point who is the worst 12 seed in the tournament round 1.

Gonzaga checks a lot of boxes other than their strength of schedule which we know is a massive red flag for their prospects to make it far in the tourney. I won’t be having them going any further than the Sweet 16 in any of my brackets.

BYU is lacking in defense, but they do at least have a profile interesting enough to advance to the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. I personally won’t be having them very far, but they’re the type of team who we shouldn’t be shocked if they are playing Arizona in the Elite Eight.

Same goes for Miami. They lack a bit in strength of schedule and aren’t elite in offense or defense, but are just a solid balanced team.

We see these types of profiles from 6 and 7 seeds every year make the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.

Ultimately this bracket is Arizona’s to lose. If they get upset early my best guess would be Purdue is the team that makes it out, but it’s very easy to see how this region could just have a very underwhelming team make it to the Final Four if somehow Arizona falters early.

Just hard for me to bet against Arizona here considering how weak the region is overall.

Best Bets:

Purdue to make the Elite Eight +110 (Fanatics)

Midwest Region

This is certainly one of the more interesting regions.

We talked on how strong and balanced Michigan is, but Iowa State is a very strong 2 seed who profiles very well in this tournament.

My chips are still on Michigan, they are the better overall team being top 10 in offense and defense with an elite schedule. They are one of the best teams ever entering the tournament relative to the rest of the field. I just can’t bet against them.

With that being said Iowa State really has no weaknesses. What may ultimately be their downfall is their 20th ranked offense when they go against the blue chip teams, but I won’t bet against them until they have to face off against one of those teams.

Virginia has a strength of schedule problem and while they are balanced (27th off/16th def) they aren’t elite in one.

Alabama is such a massive Paper Tiger that they are 67th in adjusted defense as well. Considering how this is a strong bracket overall, it’s really hard to see Alabama making much noise here.

Both Texas Tech and Tennessee scream “boring, but solid” profiles. And these are just the type of teams that we easily could see make it to the Sweet 16. I’m going to go as far to say I will be having both of these teams in my Sweet 16 over Alabama and Virginia. The issue with Texas Tech is they just lost their best player for the season so we must keep that in mind as a big hinderance.

They are both battle tested against good competition, have no glaring weaknesses and really the only thing holding them back is the don’t have a calling card as an elite offense or defense.

If there is a surprise team that somehow wins this bracket my bet would be probably Tennessee.

Just knowing how solid Iowa State and Michigan are it feels like a stretch, but it’s March and anything can happen.

Kentucky doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses but they’re outside the top 25 in both offense and defense which isn’t ideal.

The rest of the teams in this bracket don’t profile well and are unlikely to make deeper runs.

I’m betting on Michigan here, but there are legit outs for Iowa St and maybe a surprise team like Tennessee or Texas Tech.

Best Bets:

Texas Tech to make the Sweet 16 +160 (MGM)

South Region

This is BY FAR the most interesting region. You can make a strong case for 4 different teams in this bracket.

Winning your March Madness bracket likely is going to come down to how well you pick the teams in this region.

Let’s break this down further.

Florida is a solid one seed being top 10 in both offense and defense. 57% of teams that fit this profile have made the Final Four.

Houston is very balanced as well with 13th offense and 5th ranked defense. A team that really stands out as a top team in this tournament.

Illinois with 2nd ranked offense and 28th ranked defense is a very strong 3 seed.

In fact this region has 5 of the top 14 teams in this according to KenPom.

Nebraska has a 55th ranked offense and also are 42nd in strength of schedule which is just outside the first threshold of top 35 for a solid hit rate. As a four seed they are rather weak with a couple minor red flags. Considering the competition in this bracket it’s hard to see them make a deep run.

Vanderbilt is one of the most interesting 5 seeds we have seen in a while. They fit the profile of a national champion with a top 21 offense and top 44 defense and they are right on the borderline of the more elite tier of offense with their 7th ranked offense.

Had they been in any other region, they would pose a legit threat to some of the top teams. And they certainly are a threat here. If you want to get frisky you can have them advance to the Final Four and I don’t hate it. It’s just you’re also betting that they are going to have to beat some good teams to get there.

Vanderbilt might be the leverage play of the tournament, but we do need to be aware that they have the 31st ranked defense so that does put them at a disadvantage against Houston or Florida if they were to make it there.

Other than that I have no strong takes on the rest of the group here.

Best Bets:

Vanderbilt to make the Final Four +1200 (MGM)

Final Analysis

Boring is better this year. We are likely going to see a lot less upsets in the first round and find it a little more unlikely that any underdogs are making some serious noise. We know the top 20 teams are generally close and much further ahead than the rest of the field so there can be a lot of variance in the 2-5 seeds this year.

Knowing specifically that Arizona, Duke and Michigan are even another notch above the rest of the field makes it really hard to bet against them, but understanding that variance can be at play makes the “chaos” part more likely to happen with these top 20 teams.

I think going generally chalk is a very good thing but mixing up who the Elite Eight are in certain regions with specifically Arizona, Duke, and Michigan being there is completely fine and even smart.

The ultimate aspect is figuring out who is going to come out of the South region which is why I dove into that a little bit more.

This is overall a more boring tournament and expect that making the “boring” picks will be best stategy in our brackets.

Maybe next year will give us more of the “Madness” that we desperately crave, but I’m not optimistic that will be much of the case now with NIL taking all the talent out of these mid majors and brining them to the top schools.

I also don’t have a ton of bets this year because these “boring” tournaments where there isn’t as many angles or edges to be had are very tough to find value in.

It’s hard to justify paying -125 for 1 seeds to make the Final Four in any tournament and it’s hard to really find other teams I’m excited about. Also the fact there isn’t as many red flag teams this year (almost none) makes this even more difficult to find an angle to fade some teams.

If your goal was to bet as much as possible this year I am sorry I don’t feel as strong about some takes and would never tell someone to bet something without feeling like there is an edge to be had.

If you want to bet as much as possible then ripping those 1st half unders is probably the best way to get action this year (oh and entering a bunch of March Madness brackets).

Good luck!

Any industry has its norms and best practices, of course, and it’s only natural these things developed in an industry awash with shifty touts who shouldn’t be trusted. But any pendulum can swing too far, and we always felt there were ways the industry incentivized a different kind of posturing and BS that tends to inevitably permeate spaces that are policed in these ways. Instead of outright liars, you wind up with posers, who are a rung up but no less harmful. Take the article in The Athletic this week — everyone was quick to bash something I thought had at least enough value to be written and read, and how many unique takes did you see? There are so many parrots, but hey, at least they speak the language, right?

I don’t mean to preach on the way out, but we built this place on a mutual understanding and belief there’s nothing inherently wrong with admitting where your limitations are. If that meant we wouldn’t always use the correct vernacular, or get our bets in at the very best spot with the very best line, it wasn’t that we didn’t think those things weren’t important, or that a good tout shouldn’t do those things in most cases. It just meant that we were and are not lifers in this space. We argued there was still room for us to share our bets even if we weren’t trying to pretend we had those credentials.

And I’m proud of the way we stuck by that mission statement across our four years. I don’t think we did the best betting content in the world, and speaking for myself this hasn’t been what I thought it would be when we set out, which doesn’t mean anything too specific other than to say that’s always the case in a project like this. You always learn things, and at the same time you realize what you envisioned was evolving from the start anyway. But I think what’s important is you stand by what you say you’re going to be, and going to do. For me, what I’ll take with me about Stealing Lines is a belief we did that.

If you haven’t figured it out from the past tense I’m using here, this is going to be my final post at Stealing Lines. If you’re reading this, I can’t begin to thank you enough, whether you were along for the ride all four years or just joined up recently. The hardest part about moving on from this chapter, for myself, Dalton, and Mike, is you really do grow to appreciate the people who are willing to pay for your content, read it, hang out, and be a part of a community.

A lot of you have asked me about Dalton, and I’ve had the chance to talk with him and it seems like he’s doing great. I’ll let him share in his own words how things have been and what this all means for him, in his upcoming post which will be the final one here at Stealing Lines. While we’re in agreement about this step, I did talk to Dalton about March Madness a little bit, and he’s been getting excited for what’s always a fun topic around here. As part of his upcoming post, Dalton has also decided to write up his annual tournament guide as a sort of parting gift for the Stealing Lines community, so look for that after Selection Sunday. I can’t wait for it, and I know a bunch of you, like me, use it every year for our brackets, eliminator contests, and pools, in addition to the great bets he offers.

Through the past four years, I’ve been especially grateful to work with both Dalton and Mike Braude. Though Dalton wasn’t able to contribute during the final football season, he was always a diligent and thoughtful partner, and one I appreciate very much. You guys also know our third team member Mike, who always crushed it with the NBA props, and stepped up huge this year to fill Dalton’s NFL void, despite Mike’s own obligations running the Apex Fantasy Football leagues. It’s been a joy to work with both of these guys, who I’m glad to call friends.

As far as some administrative stuff, first of all, recurring subscriptions have been turned off, and they should’ve been paused for a few weeks now, since since pretty much right after the Super Bowl. I converted any annual subscriptions that renewed after the midway point of the regular season into monthly subs where I offered a refund beyond one or two months or whatever it was. I didn’t do anything with monthly subs but anyone who feels they are entitled to a refund should message me directly at bgretch at gmail dot com.

Going forward, the Discord will stay open, just for shits and giggles, in case anyone wants to hang out there. You can find me at the Stealing Signals Discord occasionally, or just subscribe to that newsletter. If I do any sides and totals next year, it’ll likely just be casual, and folded into my current fantasy football work in some capacity. But to be honest, part of this decision for me is I’m not thrilled about my edges as the sport is evolving. I’ve shared a lot of thoughts at my other Substack about that, and talked here about how the kickoff rules have really polarized totals, something I thought we saw the books acknowledging with more sub-40 and 50+ over/unders toward the end of the season.

So anyway, no promises on my end about future betting content. When we started, I’d been doing it for a few years, and had found more success than I’d expected in the notoriously difficult NFL sides and totals markets. In the years we did Stealing Lines, my results were perhaps predictably more mixed. (I know many of you have intimated you still appreciated the writeups and logic behind the bets even when the picks weren’t always crushing, and certainly I’ll still do football analysis at Stealing Signals.)

But for me, this will be it for Stealing Lines. One more person I need to thank is Dan Rivera for tracking our bets for all four years as the independent voice on our results. I’m hoping I’m not forgetting anyone else, but again, the biggest thank you goes to you guys, subscribers and readers, for following along. The betting space continues to evolve, and I continue to be uncertain about all of it, but I’m grateful for the past four years doing this work because you guys made it worth the effort and the energy.

Until you hear from me again in some other medium, I hope you run hotter than the sun!

Coming into this postseason, I felt like this was a pretty wide open field, and a tough one to handicap. That wasn’t a super novel position, obviously, as I don’t think any of the four one or two seeds were favorites in their own divisions last August, and several of the Super Bowl favorites coming into the year didn’t even make the postseason.

I decided to still attack the first round of the playoffs with several bets, and got slapped around for it. It’s a good reminder that there are always fun entertainment bets, but if you’re looking for an edge, you need to be honest with yourself when you see something as a no bet, and be willing to enjoy the game without action.

Of course, that’s blasphemous for the Super Bowl, so I’m going to talk through the ways I’m looking at it, even though I do think the spread and total are both efficient. Obviously, these markets are extremely heavily played, and we should expect efficiency. But especially in this case, I don’t see a strong angle. And yet, I’ll give some leans.

When Seattle has the ball

First off, I want to give a shoutout to my guy Sam Hoppen, who I thought broke down some key metrics well over at his Substack. Among his notes were the way the Patriots match up well defensively with a Seahawks team that does want to run the ball and protect Sam Darnold. This is why I’ve been a bit skeptical of the Darnold optimism; Seattle’s run efficiency has measured far worse than its pass numbers, even adjusting for that being true generally (so if we look at league ranks of each, Seattle was below average in Rush EPA/play at 20th but they were 7th in Pass EPA/play), and yet the Seahawks ranked 30th on the season in Pass Rate Over Expected. There is absolutely signal in the Seahawks’ run/pass choices, and unwillingness to be a pass-first team.

That doesn’t discredit Darnold, but it’s key context for people who fixate on his per-play efficiency. It’s also key context when you understand Darnold still led the NFL in giveaways this year. He played from ahead constantly, for an offense that ran the ball even more than their already low expected pass rate, and he still turned the ball over. Now, he’s gone three games at a key point in the season without a turn over, and that’s been pretty key. It’s also relevant that he fumbled in two of those games, but the Seahawks got it back. There have been just four games this entire season where Darnold didn’t throw an interception or put the ball on the ground with a fumble. It’s happened just once in the past eight weeks (the Divisional Round win over San Francisco, where he threw just 17 passes in a blowout win).

This is all super relevant because the Pats have been great against the run, as Sam notes, since the return of Milton Williams. They’ve played some bad offenses, as well, and Seattle’s run game has been strong with Kenneth Walker needing to take on a bigger load since Zach Charbonnet’s injury, and peaking at the right time. Sam also notes how good New England has been at defending the play-action pass, which the Seahawks rely on to get Darnold good looks. They also have Christian Gonzalez as a high-end cover corner to try to slow down Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I probably expect JSN to still get his, but you can see scenarios where Seattle’s offense struggles.

It’s sort of fitting that I’m making this case that Darnold hasn’t been quite as impressive as people want you to believe, because a) he’s definitely been playing great lately, most notably in that win over the Rams, and b) I do think if Seattle is going to win this game, he’ll need to play another fantastic game. Importantly, he’ll need to be able to get the ball to guys other than JSN. Mina Kimes had a great stat this week that’s clear if you watch all the games, as I obviously do, which was that when JSN is in a route but not targeted, Seattle receivers are on average twice as open in terms of separation down the field as the rest of the league’s baseline. JSN’s gravity creates positive matchups for the other guys, and Darnold has to be able to link up with those opportunities.

When New England has the ball

This matchup has been billed as underwhelming, and I always kind of hate that, but if my hope is for these two teams to elevate and play to their fullest potential, it’s not really what I’m seeing for either squad, necessarily, at least as far as offensive football goes. I just talked through the Seattle concerns, but the New England ones are even stronger.

First of all, many have noted the Patriots made it here despite weather and great defenses in their playoff run. That’s fair, but then you also have to acknowledge the offense has outright looked not very good. There’s a difference between running a gauntlet of good defenses and overperforming, and what New England has done, which has mostly made good defenses look good. They’ve still won because they’ve played good defenses, and those teams have been a mess offensively. I’m in no way trying to discredit the Patriots, and I think fans of the team should be stoked they got a favorable run; fans of so, so many teams pray for that slate of playoff opponents. The Bills would kill for it one of these years.

But while I constantly get social media responses that the weak schedule stuff is overplayed, I don’t believe that’s an accurate response. The Pats are not bad or anything, but they are undeniably one of the least-tested Super Bowl teams we’ve seen in a long time, and to me that is relevant. To me, that undeniably elevates the potential of them not looking up to the moment against probably the best defense they’ll have faced yet.

That’s why the spread is what it is. There is so much pride in the counters that I feel like all objectivity is lost. I’m not saying the Pats suck or are definitely going to lay an egg, but to act like there isn’t a greater risk of that is probably mostly just projecting a fear that it might happen, and not wanting to hear how they didn’t belong or something if it does.

Now, to be clear, I don’t expect that. I think Drake Maye is pretty good. The thought on him 18 months ago was he was the youngest QB in his class and shouldn’t start from Day 1 because he needed time to develop. He’s now 23 and in a Super Bowl. Has he played perfectly to get here? No. He fumbled six times across the Patriots’ first two playoff games, and then threw for 65 net yards in the blizzard win over Denver. But New England survived and then got two weeks to prepare.

The huge key for me in this matchup is the health of Nick Emmanwori. The combo safety has allowed Seattle to stay in nickel against heavy formations at the highest rate in the league. He got in a full practice after his ankle injury earlier this week, and is not on the injury report, but there were Twitter injury docs saying his gait was concerning enough that you just can’t be 100% on three days’ rest after that. Maybe that will prove to be an error in their judgment, but if Emmanwori is compromised, you’re definitely talking about a hit to the scheme for Seattle.

And one of the big things here is just how long this game takes. The commercial breaks are long, the halftime show is an hour. If you don’t remember how crazy it’s been just in the past few years since the pandemic, expect to look up at some point and be shocked we’re still in the first half, and then do it again when we’re still in the third quarter. If you’re dealing with an injury like a rolled ankle where it can get stiff over time, and maybe you need painkiller injections or something, it seems like that’s a concern.

Thoughts on leans

I can see successes and failures on both sides of the ball. That probably means the 4.5 points feels a little large, because a field goal win wouldn’t be shocking here. But I do think my actual lean would be Seattle -4.5, especially if I knew Emmanwori’s health, and that’s honestly in large part because of the long breaks.

It may not prove to be as significant as I’m making it, but if you’re a subscriber at my fantasy football blog, Stealing Signals, you know I’ve been writing about the importance of scheme on the 2025-26 season, and where we go from here. One of the things I don’t think gets discussed enough is the time pressure coaches are under in games. Most of the decisions we sit at home and criticize need to be made in a split second. Preparation then becomes key. I think both of these teams excel at that, and I’d expect both to have a plan, but also several iterations off that plan.

But I guess I think Macdonald has a deeper bag of tricks when it comes to scheme. I’ve been very high on the ways he’s put his players in the best positions to succeed all year now. I think it’s the storyline of the 2026 season. And with the longer commercial breaks, and the longer halftime, one of the key things is it does lessen the time pressure I referenced just a touch. It gives coaches a little more time in between possessions, and in between halves, to make in-game adjustments, or even just consider what direction they want to go with play-calling sequencing or those types of things. How they want to adjust to what they are seeing from the other team, and what they expect to see off that.

My read is Seattle is excellent at these things, which is not to say New England isn’t, because they are, and this will be the fantastic element of this game. But if you look at what Seattle did in getting here, they beat both of the architects of the modern offensive schemes, twice each. That’s Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, and how their coaching trees have expanded across the sport, right? Seattle beat McVay in a game where they got a little bit fortunate in Week 16 with the division lead on the line, then beat Shanahan in Week 18 with the division and 1 seed on the line, then beat both of them again in the postseason. They had a little harder time with the Rams in both cases, but the Rams were the best team in football this year by a lot of metrics, and the point is the gameplanning and schematic edges can be a big way Shanahan and McVay put teams away before games even really start.

That’s maybe overstated, but when you watch those guys consistently have success, what you see with some frequency is they have answers for stuff. And the Rams especially did for Seattle’s defense in both matchups, out-gaining Seattle both times and totaling over 1,000 yards across the two games. Some of that was Seattle also producing points, and those games turning into back-and-forth affairs. And neither the 49ers’ or Rams’ defenses were very impressive late in the year, so that’s another thing here where Seattle’s offense could get found out a little bit. There’s no question I might be reading into Seattle’s path to this game a little too much.

As I’ve acknowledged, I have a tough time figuring this game out. My leans have been Seattle -4.5 and the under, but one of the things about the stoppages I was referencing is I do think it’s started to accelerate games a little more. As I always say, I think of football as a game of possessions, and with the longer stoppages I guess I think there’s a little more of that feel in recent Super Bowls. Each time a team takes over feels a little more significant, and they have a little more of a distinct plan. It seems a bit tougher to go through stretches with repetitive three-and-outs, because all that can happen so fast in a typical game, where a certain defensive struggle takes over and there’s a feel to the game, but in the Super Bowl we get the stops and starts that prevent that kind of rhythm, I think.

This is probably pseudoscience, though. Still, we’ve had multiple Super Bowls over 60 combined points in the past three years, and 11 of the 12 teams to play in the past six Super Bowls have scored at least 20 points. That stretches to the 13-3 Patriots’ win over the Rams, but then the two before that both went over 60 combined points, too.

The over/under here isn’t especially high for a game like this, and I do think recent results suggest it’s fair to have a bias toward the over, while my expectations for the matchup are that we could get a lower-scoring game. That leaves me pretty clueless on the over/under, as well.

Final thoughts

I’m pretty excited for what should be a great game. I definitely think the Patriots can win, even as I talked through Seattle being the stronger team on paper. I said I think the spread is right because I do think if one team dominates, that’s probably going to be Seattle, and yet as I said I don’t think that’s a bet I love because I totally see where taking the points could be a value play. An overtime game, or a late field goal here, wouldn’t be shocking in the least, even if Seattle does still prevail.

And as I worked through, a Darnold meltdown against probably the toughest defense he’ll have faced in several games shouldn’t shock everyone. I’m not saying to expect that, but we’ve gotten a whole lot of certainty that Darnold has turned some corner that I don’t think should be that certain. Hell, everyone is evaluating the Vikings right now based on Darnold’s success with the Seahawks, and that just seems pretty far removed. He’s been playing very good ball right now, and I think he has a fantastic support system around him, with a good coaching staff and a truly special top WR. Should be fascinating to see how he looks.

Enjoy the game! As far as props and stuff, this is definitely a game where I like sprinkling on some longer shots and just having fun with it. A lot of stuff can happen here. Good luck with the various bets! We’ll be back with some more news on the future of Stealing Lines this week.

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Dalton Kincaid’s over was the lone miss, and I still think it was a strong play. We had roughly six yards of CLV, and he was one close incompletion away from cashing. The issue, in hindsight, is that he still doesn’t look fully healthy — something we couldn’t have known with him being completely removed from the injury report.

Omarion Hampton was simply a good news read. All the tea leaves pointed to a player who wasn’t healthy, facing a strong run defense. He barely saw the field, and the under cashed comfortably no matter where you played it.

The Kenneth Gainwell rushing under was another solid spot. Pittsburgh couldn’t run on Houston, and Jaylen Warren operated as the primary rusher throughout the game.

DK Metcalf was an early sweat, racking up 42 yards on Seattle’s first two drives. After that, the Texans’ defense locked in and didn’t allow another completion to him the rest of the way. That’s the best kind of sweat — a slow burn that cashes in the end.

We’re now 14–5 since the start of Week 16. Let’s keep the run going.

Divisional Round Player Props

1U Christian McCaffrey under 57.5 Rushing Yards (MGM -115), under 56.5 FD -114 is also playable

A 4.7 YPC rusher for his career, Christian McCaffrey has dropped to 3.9 YPC this season. That doesn’t include his 15 attempts for 48 yards (3.2 YPC) against the Eagles.

For the season, CMC is over this line in just 8 of 18 games. If we filter by the top-19 defenses in rushing yards allowed to RBs, he’s over in just 2 of 11.

Through the regular season, Seattle was the league’s best run defense by measures of DVOA and EPA allowed. McCaffrey faced them in Week 1 and finished with 69 yards on 22 attempts. In Week 17, they faced off again and McCaffrey rushed 8 times for 23 yards.

Removing George Kittle has been a negative for McCaffrey in the running game. McCaffrey has predictably become more involved as a receiver, increasing his targets by 2.6 to 9.3 per game and his receptions by 1.3 to 6.8 per game. This likely doesn’t help his fatigue as his yards per carry falls to 3.73 without Kittle. If you remove the one explosion against the Bears, he’s averaging 3.1 YPC. He’s under in 5 of 6 games without Kittle.

While I expect McCaffrey to be featured as a receiver, this is a tough defense to run against. Last week’s inability to run on the Eagles doesn’t inspire confidence in a game that the 49ers are 7-point road dogs. The Seahawks have a week of rest and I expect them to be keyed in on the 49ers best weapon.

Best Current Line: Under 56.5 MGM -110, Caesars -120

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As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

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The Rams-Panthers under play was pretty clearly wrong, as Carolina did show up in a big way. I didn’t get this piece written up in time, but played the Buffalo-Jacksonville over in Discord, so hopefully you saw that.

Let’s get to the plays for the rest of Wild Card weekend. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

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Apologies for getting this out a bit later than usual. When I’m not sending out props, I’m running Apex Fantasy Leagues — and with playoff drafts in full swing, it’s been a busy week.

Last week was an excellent one. We finished 5–0, which was a great breakthrough after hovering around breakeven for a few weeks.

For tracking purposes, we now sit at 51–34, up 10.34 units with a 10.42% ROI. If we remove the first four weeks, the numbers are even stronger: 43–25, up 14.86 units with a 19.1% ROI.

As expected, the playoff slate is more challenging. With fewer games, lines tend to be sharper and opportunities more limited. I’ll continue to be selective and only send plays where I believe there’s real value, even if the volume is lower.

Enough small talk — let’s get into this week’s plays.

Wild Card Weekend Props

1U Dalton Kincaid over 36.5 Receiving Yards (FD -114)

To start, despite being banged up, Kincaid is over this line in 8 of 12 games. He played last week, which I thought was a very positive sign for his health as the Bills could have easily sat him.

The Jaguars allowed the fewest rushing yards this season and are a pass-funnel. Their defense had the second-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) this season. Guarding tight ends was one of their biggest defensive weaknesses.

Here’s a look at some recent TEs against the Jags since their Week 9 bye:

• Week 3: Schultz 3/39

• Week 4: Tonges 3/58

• Week 5: Kelce 7/61

• Week 6: Barner 3/71

• Week 7: Parkinson 3/47

• Week 9: Bowers 12/127

• Week 10: Schultz 7/53

• Week 11: Gadsden 2/41

• Week 12: McBride 9/79

• Week 13: Helm 6/23, Okonkwo 4/29

• Week 14: Warren 2/15

• Week 15: Ruckert 2/13

• Week 16: Engram 2/36

• Week 17: Warren 5/43

• Ignore Week 18: Titans with Brandon Allen

Out of 14 games, a tight end has gone over this line in 10 games. Engram missed by a yard, Warren went under but otherwise, it was the Titans TEs, and Jeremy Ruckert with Brady Cook at QB. I’m not counting the Titans with Brandon Allen’s 72 passing yards.

Kincaid still leads all tight ends with 2.77 yards per route run but his routes have been limited. At 1.71 YPRR, Khalil Shakir is the only other Bills pass-catcher above 1.27.

Kincaid has had an ongoing knee injury that coach Sean McDermott has discussed managing. There is a possibility they’ve limited his regular season snaps as a result. He doesn’t need to play a ton to top this line – Kincaid went over against the Jets in 10 offensive snaps last week.

In their biggest game of the year, assuming he’s healthy enough, the Bills should raise their best pass-catchers workload.

Best Current Line: Over 38.5 MGM -110

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Let’s get to the Wild Card Round plays for today. I have a play for both games, and might add more for the rest of Wild Card weekend, but wanted to get these out first.

As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

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To quickly recap Week 17, I did something last week I don’t think I’ve ever done, which was essentially give up the vig by making both sides of a bet. There was a small hope to middle it on a key number, 41, which equates to five touchdowns and two field goals, and covers a lot of common scores like 24-17, 27-14, and 31-10. The actual final score was 34-10, and we missed that by a field goal, so it’s not like there was zero equity there.

Ultimately, the second bet did miss, and a criticism of the result would be that once the first bet is placed, you need to just roll with the results, because you can never be too certain of any outcome to take this drastic of a step versus the element of just letting the chips fall where they may. I won’t deny that. For me, there was considerable information I hadn’t considered, and part of my calculation was wanting subscribers to get the full picture. Placing the second bet was as much about honesty as anything; some people may not have looked through the first bets yet, for example.

As it played out, the Giants got a 95-yard kick return touchdown in the final minute of the third quarter — off the Raiders’ only TD of the game — to help accelerate things and eventually push us over the total by a field goal. I do think, while the process to pay the vig to get out of the bet wasn’t probably right, the result did validate a point I was trying to make in this rare instance, which was that it was a bit of a crapshoot, but also probably one with a lean to the under. There was a strong likelihood at least one team would play to lose, given the No. 1 pick implications, and the Raiders got that memo, totaling just 104 yards in the first half. The two teams combined for just 16 total possessions, eight apiece, as neither played fast.

The Giants, after punts on their first two possessions, ultimately did take control of the game — and then their efficiency was pretty impressive, with scores on five straight possessions from the late first quarter through to a final possession where they just kneeled out the game. They got the kick return TD during that stretch, scored three offensive TDs, and settled for two field goals, amassing their 34 points in a consecutive manner, without a non-scoring drive.

Anyway, I’m mostly justifying a bad decision here — or a pair of them, starting with the initial bet not having the necessary information, and then the decision to correct it, which is bad from the perspective of overconfidence, something we can never be too careful of in betting — and I do acknowledge that. We did hit the other three bets, making for a 4-1 week after the 1-1 split. Jacksonville was a fortunate cover of 5.5 points with a series of necessarily specific circumstances leading to a field goal to push a 3-point lead to 6, something teams typically won’t do. (Typically, teams will go for it on fourth down, but in this case the time was extremely low, and a third-and-4 run play went for a loss of 5 yards, so the fourth-and-9 wasn’t a great option, so a field goal with 24 seconds to force a TD coming back with under 20 became a reasonable decision.)

It was great to get one back after some bad beats lately, but that didn’t feel like a strong win by any means. The other two bets did, though, and it was a good week. The Patriots easily covered the 13.5, winning by 32. The Seahawks didn’t necessarily run away from the Panthers, who did cut the lead to 7 in the early part of the fourth quarter, but they answered that with a score and then another late one, and the 6.5 points there wasn’t ever in significant doubt.

One thing I speculated was Carolina’s late-game tactics might be influenced by Week 18 being the clear focus, and they eventually did something I can’t remember seeing in a very long time, which was kneeling out a loss starting from a second down after the 2-minute warning, such that they kneeled and turned the ball over on downs with about 40 seconds left, forcing Seattle to take over and kneel once on their own to end the game. Did it make sense to not risk any key injuries in what was a 17-point game at that point? Obviously. Was it still an unprecedented decision, relative to just handing the ball off and punting to save a little bit of face? Yeah, that too.

Anyway, a 4-1 week was good to see, and snapped a streak of four straight non-winning weeks (two were 2-2 weeks). We’re now at 60-55 for the year, and here in Week 18, because of the realities of this season and how Week 17 further clarified things, there are some clearly interesting games where I do have a play.

Let’s get to those. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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For the season, we’re 46–36, up 5.34 units with a 5.71% ROI. I’d always like the record and ROI to be higher, but there was a learning curve with this being my first year sending out NFL bets.

The early part of the season reflected that. Through Weeks 1–4, we went 8–11 and were down 4.52 units. Since the start of Week 5, though, we’re up 9.86 units with a 13.73% ROI, which better reflects the process and the edge we’ve been working toward.

It’s been a fun ride, and I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have. Sweating bets is one of the best forms of entertainment, but beyond that, I hope you’ve picked up something along the way about how to approach betting analytically — building arguments, understanding variance, and focusing on process over short-term results.

Part of the goal was always to help you learn how to find these spots on your own as well.

Let’s close out the regular season strong with the Week 18 props.

Week 18 Player Props

1U Rico Dowdle under 57.5 Rushing Yards (DK -111)

With Chuba Hubbard in the lineup, this is a line that Dowdle hasn’t consistently covered. Since his hot stretch, he’s gone under this line in 5 of his last 7, averaging 47.3 rushing yards.

His lowest output came against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, where he ran just 9 times for 29 yards. Despite winning the game, the Panthers had just 15 running back rush attempts compared to 38 Bryce Young drop backs. The Bucs are a pass-funnel.

In addition to a lack of productivity, Dowdle is banged up. Coach Dave Canales said the following (h/t Coachspeak Index):

“Rico Dowdle has a sore toe. Came out of the game a little bit more sore than normal, so we just decided to give him a rest day. I’m pretty confident that he’ll be able to go this week, but we gotta take it day by day and see what he can do tomorrow.”

Canales also talked about getting Hubbard more involved:

“Chuba Hubbard is an absolute stud, he’s one of the leaders of our group. He certainly challenges the whole group by how he works and how he prepares. I love Chuba. Gonna give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”

Banged up with a tough matchup, this is a good opportunity to fade Dowdle.

Collab with Connor Allen from 4for4

Best Current Line: Under 55.5 MGM -115

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We finished last week at 3–2, but variance continues to test us. The Geno Smith under 196.5 passing yards play was a tough one — it missed by five yards on his final pass attempt, a 14-yard completion. It was a strong play that closed all the way down at 180.5 passing yards. I’d take that bet every time, but unfortunately, that’s part of the game — and it got us again on Christmas.

On Christmas Day, I played Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 61.5 rushing yards after Chris Rodriguez was ruled out with an illness. As always, I’ve included the full breakdown below. It was another strong process play. Croskey-Merritt had just 13 yards at halftime before breaking a 72-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Outside of that one play, he finished with 33 yards on 10 carries. The Cowboys’ defense had a single breakdown, and that was enough to flip the result. It’s another loss I’m completely comfortable with — the process was right, even if the outcome wasn’t.

After a few weeks of rough variance, we’re due for some positive regression. Even starting this week at 0–1, I feel good about the rest of the card.

Let’s get into Week 17.

Week 17 Player Props

1U Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 61.5 Rushing Yards (MGM -110), 61.5 -121 on Caesars, 60.5 also playable on DK

Quick write up but wanted to get this one out ASAP. Obviously his workload increases with Rodriguez out but this is a number he shouldn’t hit.

The Cowboys have been a different beast with Quinnen Williams. Since he was acquired in Week 11, they’ve allowed the following to starting RBs:

• Jeanty 7 rushing yards

• Saquon 22 rushing yards

• Gibbs 43 rushing yards

• Aaron Jones 34 rushing yards

Williams was out last week against the Chargers. This one has all the ingredients: bad QB play on his team, underdogs against a superior team with bad game-script possibilities, underrated run D. I expect the Cowboys to control this game, in addition to being the pass funnel that they’ve been with Williams on the field.

1U Quentin Johnston under 37.5 Receiving Yards (MGM -110), 36.5 -114 on FD also playable

After a hot start to the season, Quentin Johnston has cooled off, covering this line in just one of his last four games. In his return from injury, he had a big game against the Cowboys, which may be the single most favorable matchup for opposing WRs. Even in that game, he had just five targets.

The Texans may be the single worst matchup. The Texans lead the NFL in EPA per pass play. They’re allowing the 9th fewest yards to opposing WRs. Based on where they typically play, I expect him to draw Derek Stingley, one of the league’s best cornerbacks.

After consistently playing 80%+ of the snaps early in the season, QJ has played 67%, 76% and 58% over the last three games. Over his last four games, QJ has drawn 3, 3, 3, and 5 targets. Slowly exciting second-round pick Tre Harris is gaining work – still playing 45% of the snaps in QJ’s return last week. Greg Roman has also spoken glowingly about Harris.

The total for this game is 39.5, which would be the lowest closing total points line for the Chargers all season. QJ has gone under in 3 of 4 games with a closing total points line of 44 of less.

This isn’t a good offensive spot, and I don’t expect the Chargers to be playing from behind in pass-heavy situations. The Texans struggled to score on the Raiders at home this week so the Chargers on the road shouldn’t be an easy task.

The Texans have one of the league’s best pass rushes so the ball will need to get out quickly. I think this matchup is more suited for Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen. I don’t think this is a game where QJ can get by on low volume.

Best Current Line: Under 35.5 MGM -115

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The Kansas City/Tennessee Over 37.5 was not a good bet, especially since Gardner Minshew playing well was part of it and he did poorly for a brief stretch before he left. But we also got a missed field goal, which you need points when you have chances in spots where the total is this low. And then at the end the Titans scored a TD that pushed the game over, and I was pumped, but they called Jeffery Simmons for not reporting eligible, and the broadcast caught Simmons holding up his arm the entire way on the field and the head referee Clete Blakeman clearly making the gesture, which Gene Steratore outright admitted on the broadcast that was and indication of acknowledging an ineligible number as an eligible player, and there shouldn’t have been a foul. They ended up settling for a field goal and it cost us the bet. Just a really crazy one there; I’ve never seen anything like that.

The Tampa Bay -3 bet was bad, as that was just a closer game than I anticipated, and the Bucs played down to the Panthers. The Giants +2.5 bet was tough to see them lose a pick-six because Abdul Carter lined up in the neutral zone, because betting against J.J. McCarthy was the whole play, and that was the moment. The Vikings kicked a field goal right after that, as they were in range, so that was a 10-point swing in a game we lost by a half point. We lost the Rams on Thursday night in a crazy way. Just a really rough week.

Did get the Bengals -4 line to hit by a mile, and split the MNF bets, with San Francisco easily covering but the under getting blown away. With the TNF miss, it goes down as a 2-5 week with two pretty tough losses, and a third that was by a half point.

With the playoff field mostly set, it’s really hard to parse team motivation. The three Christmas Day games were great evidence, with the morning game looking like two teams willing to go out and play loose and go for it a lot, and the next two games featuring some teams trying to pack it in. The night game was so slow, with the Chiefs really not playing too competitively as the Broncos gave up some short fields and kept them in the game, and Kansas City mostly just tried to keep it close.

Let’s get to the Week 17 plays, and I have to write them up quick this week before some final Christmas stuff I’m headed to with extended family. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

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So there was some good, but the two official misses were both bad, too. The Carolina-New Orleans over was just dumb in hindsight. I thought Carolina might change their stripes out of a bye, essentially, and thought with a division lead on the line they couldn’t go down without being aggressive in a second loss to the bottom-dweller in their division. But what was dumb is I don’t think Bryce Young is good, and taking an over with two bad QBs is dumb. Trying to guess that a coach might be more aggressive out of a bye when his QB isn’t good is dumb. They went very run heavy and lost! It also was probably the right way for them to try to win, because they were a super fraudulent 7-6 team.

I was betting on a fraudulent team to act against their own best interests by trying to develop something I thought wouldn’t work, but would speed up the game. Instead, they posted a -12.1% PROE in a run-heavy game that shortened things and kept New Orleans close enough where a few breaks meant they could pull off the upset late. That’s super rough! And I guess I did think we might see a good Bryce Young game. But like I said, I do think this was probably their best bet, to try to get those defensive stands late and win another close game. It didn’t work. Probably, unleashing Young wouldn’t have, either. As an aside, this particular gameplan is about the biggest nail in the coffin for this iteration of Young you could see. They had to have this game, out of a bye, and Dave Canales does not believe in him.

I also missed on Dallas -5.5, which was a weird game on Sunday night. Brandon Aubrey missed two pretty key field goals, which he never does. They were long kicks, but he’s pretty automatic, and what we know about long misses is they set up the opposing offense in great field position. Minnesota scored off both, which made them hurt doubly bad.

The second-quarter miss from 51 was an opportunity for Dallas to go up 17-14, but led to a Minnesota field goal to instead take that lead, before Dallas tied it right before half at 17-17. Dallas was likely in position to have final possession of the half either way, and probably would’ve had a halftime lead even if Minnesota still answered with a field-goal drive from worse field position had the Cowboys kicked off.

But the swing was bigger early in the fourth quarter, when the Cowboys were down 24-23, and Aubrey missed an even-longer 59-yarder that essentially started Minnesota at midfield. They took over with a 1-point lead, instead of trailing by 2 and much deeper, which is a whole different ballgame in terms of the play sheet and what you can call, and what the defense is calling there. The Vikings got a touchdown coming back to push it to 8, which was the eventual margin of victory.

A make in the fourth quarter would’ve put Dallas up 2 with 12 minutes to go, and covering 5.5 would have still been tough in that spot. It’s tough to argue Dallas was the right side in this game, and I’m not doing that, as the Vikings had a good gameplan and got another solid outing from J.J. McCarthy. I was just saying we had a shot here; you never know how those final 12 minutes go if Aubrey at least makes that second one. Different final few minutes, for sure.

So, a disappointing 2-2 week, all things considered, and then we started Week 16 with a moneyline bet on the Rams in Discord that was clearly the right side but also a loss. Always feels good when respected NFL reporters are comparing your miss to a modern jetliner crashing.

But we’re going to come back from that and have a profitable Week 16. Right now, we’ve slid to 54-50 on the season, and just barely in the black overall. But I like what we’re looking at this week.

Let’s get to the rest of the Week 16 plays. I’m not doing any leans this week; I went through it and figured out what I wanted and what I didn’t want, and I have six more plays for you for Sunday (and Monday, but nothing Saturday unfortunately). As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Pick: TB -3, -102 (DraftKings)

I just told you what I really think about Bryce Young in the introduction, so this pick probably doesn’t surprise most. Sam Hoppen had some additional great notes in his matchup preview about how the Buccaneers defend outside runs well, and Carolina would do well to run inside. They can do that effectively, but it’s very difficult to win a game when that’s your main means of attack.

The Bucs have also gotten quite a bit better of late, probably. The returns of Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all in just the past few weeks — and all of them scaling up some to where we’re probably just now approaching a point where the group is closer to 100% good to go, with Evans being the last one to return but having the injury that required the least scaling up (a pretty straightforward bone break) — are a massive help to Baker Mayfield. Additionally, ETR’s Brandon Thorn has the Bucs’ offensive line ranked No. 2, and Carolina’s defensive line ranked dead last, 32nd.

The Bucs are decent road favorites despite having the same record as Carolina, but this spread is pretty clearly too close, and I’m left wondering what I’m missing. Tampa has lost five of their past six, including double-digit road losses in their only two road games in that stretch, but those were against Buffalo and the Rams, and back in Weeks 11 and 12 before they’d gotten healthier. The other games have all been one-score games, and they’ve played a ton of those this year, having only won two games by more than a field goal.

But that kind of thing can easily be a trend we put too much weight on relative to the game in front of us. They come out the other end of that stretch with a game here that is for control of the division, and a far healthier team than the circumstances during which they played those other games. Unless you believe they are actually incapable of winning by more than a field goal, laying 3 feels like a great price.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

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Unfortunately, the other sweats weren’t as kind. Jonathan Taylor was probably the weakest bet on the card, though I still don’t regret it. It took 25 carries and a tightly contested game for him to finally go over in the fourth quarter. Like Vegas, I expected Seattle to control the game throughout — instead, it came down to a last-second field goal. Relying on Seattle’s offense to create separation may not have been the most prudent assumption, but it’s one I was comfortable making at home.

Josh Jacobs was another frustrating one. We bet under 85.5 rushing + receiving yards, and the line closed all the way down at 77.5 — excellent CLV. Jacobs finished with just 12 carries, his second-fewest of the season, but broke his longest run of the year at 40 yards. Prior to that, he hadn’t had a run of 30+ yards all season and hadn’t logged a longer rush since November 2023. He also caught a 14-yard touchdown — easily his most impressive reception of the season. Even with all of that, he still didn’t go over until the fourth quarter.

As frustrating as Jacobs was, Christian McCaffrey under 72.5 rushing yards was the toughest loss of the week. The line closed at 66.5 and he sat comfortably under all game. Up 10 late against the Titans, McCaffrey received three carries on the 49ers’ final drive. His last carry — a six-yard rush — pushed him over by a single yard.

Aaron Jones went under comfortably in the Sunday game, leaving us at 2–3 on the week. Those losses sting, and I hate losing, but based on the closing line value and the reasoning behind the plays, I’d make them again. Variance hasn’t been kind lately — we’re due for it to swing back our way.

Let’s get on to Week 16.

Week 16 Player Props

1U Geno Smith under 196.5 Passing Yards (FD -114)

Geno Smith has played poorly this season. He’s averaging 203.7 passing yards per game, down to 181.7 in the last 10 games. He’s under this line in 7 of 13 games overall. Against top-28 defenses in pass yards, he’s under in 7 of 10. Against top-19 defenses, he’s under in 6 of 8 games.

The Texans are allowing the 5th fewest passing yards and are arguably the league’s best defense. These is what they’ve allowed to opposing passers after the first three weeks:

• Week 4: Cam Ward 108 passing yards

• Week 5: Cooper Rush 179 passing yards

• Week 7: Sam Darnold 213 passing yards

• Week 8: Mac Jones 193 passing yards

• Week 9: Bo Nix 173 passing yards

• Week 10: Trevor Lawrence 158 passing yards

• Week 11: Cam Ward 194 passing yards

• Week 12: Josh Allen 253 passing yards

• Week 13: Daniel Jones 201 passing yards

• Week 14: Patrick Mahomes 160 passing yards

• Week 15: Jacoby Brissett 253 passing yards 7 of 11 went under.

This is a high line for a passer that has struggled consistently against arguably the league’s best defense. This defense is ferocious and I don’t think the Raiders have the personnel to push them.

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The six misses included Minnesota-Washington just being a miss both ways. The leading team tends to dictate pace, and Minnesota dominated, especially with a 19-play first-half drive that gave Washington the ball to start their second drive of the game with just five minutes in the half. Because their first drive had moved all the way down to the 2-yard line before ending up with no points, the over was basically already dead. The spread was quickly, too.

The Bills-Bengals under was rough, as well. Footing was bad for the defense, as it can be. But that was known. Even in a game where Cincinnati went a ridiculous 10-for-12 on third downs, and Buffalo went an also-good 6-for-11 — and then of those five failures, went for it four times and went 3-for-4 on fourth downs — there was still a path to the under late, before Josh Allen ran 40 yards for a TD and Buffalo ran a pick-six back right behind it, as the game hit for five touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone.

Anyway, that was obviously a miss, too, as was the Cleveland -3.5 play, where I just totally whiffed on the feel for the game. It was another snowy game where defenses couldn’t get their footing and there were big plays. The Browns still out-gained Tennessee 412 to 292, but lost.

So, four clean misses really, and three hits where there was some good fortune. And yet. I need to bitch for a minute.

I had the Seattle-Atlanta under as probably our worst beat of the year, after it featured only 12 points in the first half, was clearly the right side, and then the Seahawks ran back the opening kick of the second half and then Kirk Cousins decided to melt down and hand over short fields to a struggling Sam Darnold, with Seattle scoring 10 second-half points off two drives that started in plus territory, and 31 second-half points in total to push this over by 1.5 points.

That turned out to be only our second-worst beat of the day. Denver -7.5 was atrocious. Up 17 with 3:56 left in a game where the Raiders had no offense all day, the Broncos conceded a garbage-time TD to Kenny Pickett, then recovered the onside kick, got into field goal range, and went for it on fourth-and-4 up by 10 with about a minute left, where a first down would end the game. The Raiders stopped them from icing it, then with 16 seconds left Pickett completed a 26-yard pass to Tyler Lockett where he was tackled inbounds, with the clock running about 5 seconds remaining, and as the announcers said they wouldn’t be able to get another snap off, a Denver defender swatted the ball away from Lockett for zero reason, and got penalized for delay of game, which stopped the clock. Then Pete Carroll decided 5 seconds was enough to kick a field goal that would cover the spread, despite not being enough for anything else, so the Raiders did that, as time expired, to lose by 7.

The Raiders shouldn’t have even gotten that possession, as the Broncos should’ve frankly pretty easily ran out the clock, but they took a first-down sack on a dropback when Sean Payton got too cute and weren’t able to get there from second-and-15. You know that risk exists when you lay 7.5, except it’s important to emphasize just how handily the Broncos dominated this game, and how they were up 17 late, with the Raiders onto a backup QB having produced nothing offensively basically all game. Even with the final two possessions, they finished with just 229 yards; those two garbage-time possessions accounted for roughly half of that. Backdoors happen on lines like 7.5, but that doesn’t mean that when they happen in a spot like this, that it was somehow inevitable. This was a horrendous beat.

So, 3-6 on the week, both due to some bad picks, and some terrible luck. I acknowledged we got fortunate as well. It’s clear to me the worst of it ran against us, but your mileage may vary. We fall to 52-47 for +1.59 units on the year, after losing 3.58 units in Week 14.

Let’s get to the Week 15 plays. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

Pick: Over 42.5, -105 (DraftKings)

The Texans have a ruthless defense, and their defensive line has a significant advantage at home. I still have a hard time understanding why this is such a low over/under.

Jacoby Brissett has now started eight games, and because the Cardinals have been an aggressively pass-first offense during that time, and because they’ve played in controlled environments like the atmosphere in Houston this weekend, those games have been sped up. Houston may get to Brissett some, but he’s likely to get the ball off in a lot of situations, and you’re talking about the potential for interceptions and short fields for Houston as part of any narrative that argues the Texans’ defense dominates.

I do like Houston in this game, but they are 10-point favorites, and part of that includes late-game situations where they are up by more and Arizona is chucking it. In Brissett’s eight starts, Cardinals’ games have gone under this total exactly once, an outdoor game a couple weeks ago in Tampa that still had 37 points. The other games have featured 58, 50, 44, 66, 63, 51, and 62 points.

It’s not as simple as, “Hey, one side’s games always have more points than this,” because as I noted in the intro the winning team often dictates pace. Working backward, Houston’s recent games have featured 30, 36, 42, and 29 points. Maybe they’ll lead and dictate here again, and I’ll feel dumb.

But Brissett has been getting pass volume up against everybody. He’s hit 40+ passes in five straight. Those are either chunk gains or incompletions that stop the clock. He’s been taking some sacks, and likely will here, but as I said there are turnover possibilities with those. The Cardinals’ defense hasn’t been great, and has been even worse recently, ranking 30th in EPA/play allowed over the past four weeks. Houston’s offense is whatever, but they should be efficient enough at home here.

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

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Looking back at the card, I loved the Blake Corum and Luther Burden overs that cashed. The Jeanty under was especially strong — those are the kinds of unders we love, where there’s never much of a sweat.

On the losses, Bijan Robinson got off to a fast start, and Seattle’s offense did very little early to help its defense. On their first four possessions, the Seahawks had two three-and-outs and an interception, which allowed Bijan to pile up early carries and production before the game script predicatably flipped.

Tony Pollard was also more productive than expected. The Titans were finally able to run the ball and sustain drives against what we thought was a strong Browns defense. Unfortunately, that unit hasn’t been the same without Maliek Collins, and the splits since his injury suggest this is no longer a matchup to automatically avoid on the ground.

I generally try to limit receiving unders because of the added variance. The Chargers weren’t a great spot for the Eagles’ passing game overall, but A.J. Brown and Goedert both went over while DeVonta Smith ended up as the odd man out. We trusted Derwin James and the Chargers’ strong splits against tight ends — it just didn’t break our way this time.

Let’s get back on track this week. As always, make sure you’re in the Discord so you can grab the bets as early as possible before lines move.

Week 15 Player Props

1U Aaron Jones under 51.5 Rushing Yards (MGM -118)

Aaron Jones is under this line in 6 of 9 games this season. If you remove the worst run defenses he’s faced, he’s under in 5 of 6.

Since acquiring Quinnen Williams, the Cowboys run defense is much improved. They are a pass funnel, forcing the league’s highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four games.

Here are how the opposing backfields performed in their four games since acquiring Williams:

• Raiders: 8 rushing attempts for 13 rushing yards

• Eagles: 11 rushing attempted for 30 rushing yards

• Chiefs: 17 rushing attempts for 74 rushing yards

• Lions: 18 rushing attempts for 103 rushing yards

Obviously, the Lions are on a different level of rushing offense – averaging 135.8 rushing yards per game. Regardless, it took Montgomery breaking a big run – Gibbs went under finishing with 12 rushes for 43 yards.

The Cowboys are at home with a current spread of 6.5 points. I think the emphasis will be put on JJ McCarthy. If he doesn’t perform, the game-script could get a little out of hand for Jones as a rusher.

Best Current Line: Under 46.5 DraftKings -110

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On the misses: Josh Jacobs broke a long run to push his over, but he also played more than anticipated in his first game back from injury. Brian Thomas returned to a 75% snap share but wasn’t prioritized the way I hoped — just three targets all game. And coming out of the bye, RJ Harvey handled less work than he had the week prior. Denver involved Jaleel McLaughlin, but Harvey also didn’t show much explosiveness, which is disappointing from a rookie with his athletic profile and college production.

The only bet I truly regretted was the Brian Thomas play. I expected the Jaguars to treat him as one of their most talented long-term offensive pieces. Assuming rational coaching is always difficult, as they leaned more on Jakobi Meyers. Regression toward Thomas should come eventually, but timing it is difficult.

One positive: Harvey’s rushing line closed at 57.5 — nearly 10 yards higher than where we took it. Anytime you’re getting that kind of closing line value (CLV), you’re on the right track, even if the result doesn’t go your way.

As always, make sure you’re in the Discord to get the plays the moment I take them. Lines move quickly, and CLV can be a big part of our edge.

Let’s make Week 14 a great one.

Week 14 Player Props

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Minnesota-Seattle was an easy cover and also a laughable bet on the over. I thought the skill positions were strong enough that a QB change would be a boost for the Vikings, but when I said the QB play couldn’t get worse from J.J. McCarthy, I learned to never say never. Maybe it wasn’t worse, but it was just as bad from Max Brosmer.

Buffalo covered easily, and we moved to 49-41 on the year, for +5.17 units. I thought after this week maybe I’d find in the splits we’ve been meaningfully better on sides, but we’re 26-23 for +0.80 on spreads, 3-2 for +2.03 on the five underdog moneyline bets (so 29-25 for +2.83 total on sides), and 20-16 for +2.34 on totals. For the totals, that splits to 5-5 on unders and 15-11 on overs, so still solidly in the black even after those two misses. The over bias has been good to us this year.

Still, we always need to track movement, and I’m winding down that over bias as we hit the colder weather games, a lot more run-heaviness around the NFL, and late-season trends like the long-term under trend on the second matchup of divisional foes. We always gotta be light on our feet.

Let’s get to the Week 14 plays. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Under 44.5, -108 (DraftKings)

We have an indoor game with a modest total, so it feels like one of those over bias games, and the money is coming in that way. The two main reasons I like going the other way are the strong run leans from these offenses lately, and the big spread.

One way to play this game would be to just take Seattle to cover, but laying a touchdown for a west coast team in the eastern time zone is aggressive. I do think they’ll control the game, but when the Vikings took away Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week, Sam Darnold turned into a pumpkin, totaling just 93 attempted air yards with a 3.6 aDOT. I’m not confident he’ll be bad or JSN will be held down again, but I do think a conservative gameplan wouldn’t be surprising. Working back, over the past four weeks Seattle’s PROEs have been: -7.5%, -4.6%, -12.3%, -24.5%.

Atlanta’s Week 13 gameplan wasn’t much different than Seattle’s, with just 154 attempted air yards on a 4.7 aDOT. Kirk Cousins has not been trusted to push the ball downfield, and Drake London is out again, facing a defense that is first in EPA/play over the past four weeks. With the flexibility of Nick Emmanwori, Seattle notably doesn’t come out of nickel even against multi-TE sets, daring teams to run against them. While Seattle has been 32nd in PROE over the past four weeks, Atlanta has been 28th, as their past four weeks working backward have been: -10.6%, -12.6%, -6.4%, -8.0%. Those first two are the two Cousins stats, and both were in the double digits for negative PROE as they focused on Bijan Robinson.

I’ve got this game as likely to feature a big run rate on both sides of the ball. I don’t think there’s a ton of reason to believe Atlanta will be great offensively, but I also think Seattle could stumble some on the road. We have two defensive head coaches who will be happy to get into a punt-fest and play field position. I like the under.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

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I mentioned last week feeling like I was pretty in tune with this season, perhaps more so than my record indicated. I’ve written the opposite before — that I felt “out of position analytically” — so this isn’t something where I don’t go both ways with it. But I was glad to respond after that commentary with a 5-1 week in Week 12, and then watching those four early Week 13 games probably reinforced that I’m not out there right now. If nothing else, not forcing something that wasn’t right, was right.

Last week, the Patriots-Bengals under got there despite two pick-sixes in the first half which turned 16 offensive points into a 30-point half. We got some good fortune on a goal-line stand late but on balance it was a good play. The Lions-Giants over hit easily, but I missed on the -12.5 by a lot. It takes several things to miss by that much, but I both underestimated the Giants and the interim coach element, where they pulled out some trick plays and found multiple explosives off that, and I also overestimated how Detroit would look. The Lions’ issues continued into Week 13 on Thanksgiving.

Similarly, I got Chicago -2.5 in a decently-close one, but then we got the Bears beating the Eagles outright on Black Friday to validate that’s a better team than people realize. As for the final two Week 12 picks, San Francisco -7 held up despite Brock Purdy throwing three first-half interceptions, because the thesis Bryce Young is just that bad right now proved accurate, and the Jaguars-Cardinals over was tight, but also did get there. That’s one where I’m not sure what the right side was; we got an early pick-six that was pretty crucial, but there were also some missed chances, including a missed field goal.

It was a good 5-1 week that I’m happy with, and we move to 47-39 for the year, and +5.31 units. Let’s get to the Week 13 plays. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Over 44.5, -104 (FanDuel)

This game total is falling, but I don’t understand it. The Cardinals have had an aggressive pass rate since Jacoby Brissett took over, and while the last couple games have been at home on turf, I’m not buying that we should react this aggressively just because we’re outdoors. The past three Cardinals games have all gone over 50 total points, and the Bucs have played two shootouts since their Week 9 bye, as well, with jus the 34-7 loss last week as their sole lower-scoring affair.

Both teams have long injury reports, and perhaps I’m oversimplifying. But call it what you want, if I get Brissett vs. Baker Mayfield below 45, that’s an over I want to take.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

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I’m not a volume bettor, but I always aim to provide value by sending out my highest-confidence edges each week. Long term, my goals are twofold:

1. Help you make money by identifying bets with real edges.

2. Show the thought process behind those bets through detailed write-ups.

Sharp plays usually come from something that can be explained with evidence — usage trends, matchup data, historical tendencies, coaching patterns — not from hoping the market and the books somehow missed something obvious. By showing exactly how I arrive at these bets, my hope is that you not only win with me, but also learn how to find good bets on your own.

Last week we went a solid 3–1. Kenneth Walker came through despite the glute injury listing, and both Breece Hall and Tony Pollard comfortably went under their rushing totals. Our only miss was Jonathan Taylor’s receptions at +100. We grabbed strong CLV and the pass attempts (31) were there, but Daniel Jones kept trying to push the ball downfield.

This week, I’ve already sent six bets out on Discord. The first — Josh Jacobs under 61.5 rushing yards — unfortunately didn’t get there. I’ll include it with the other write-ups below so you can see the reasoning behind it.

Let’s get on to Week 13.

Week 13 Player Props

1U Josh Jacobs under 61.5 Rushing Yards (DK -112)

Jacobs is banged up and the Packers held him out last week. Emanuel Wilson rushed 28 times for 107 yards. Head coach Matt LaFleur said the following:

“Emanuel Wilson did a hell of a job. He’s a big, powerful back. When you run with the right pad level, it just shows you what he’s capable of doing.”

I expect Wilson to eat into his workload.

Regardless, Jacobs is over this line in 6 of 10 games this season. In matchups against teams that are top-17 in rushing yards allowed, he’s under in 3 of 4. He barely went over in Week 1 against the Lions at home, rushing 19 times for 66 yards (3.5 YPC). In that game, the Lions couldn’t move or possess the ball – I’m expecting a different game on the road.

The Lions are allowing the 9th fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs (79.3 per game). Whether it’s due to inefficiency or lack of workload, I don’t expect Jacobs to top this number.

Collab with Connor Allen from 4for4

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