Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 2 June 2026 to 9 June 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

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On 3 June 2026, it emerged that China had imposed a one-year ban on four New Zealand MPs after they visited Taiwan in May. The MPs had travelled as part of a cross-party parliamentary delegation. Beijing’s response was to bar them from entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, reportedly with the possibility that the ban could be reduced or waived if they apologised.

These were non-government parliamentarians participating in a long-running form of informal parliamentary engagement with Taiwan. New Zealand MPs have visited Taiwan for decades. This was not a sudden change in New Zealand policy, nor was it a breach of Wellington’s long-standing position. New Zealand, like many countries, recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, but it has not accepted Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of the PRC. The 1972 joint communiqué says New Zealand “acknowledges” China’s position on Taiwan; it does not say Wellington endorses it.

So why now? Well, it is not that New Zealand changed what it was doing. It is that Beijing has changed what it is willing to tolerate as it continues narrowing the space between formal diplomatic recognition and informal engagement. For decades, many countries have maintained unofficial ties with Taiwan while avoiding formal recognition. That ambiguity has allowed trade, parliamentary exchanges, cultural links and technical cooperation to continue without crossing the diplomatic red line. Beijing appears increasingly less willing to tolerate that distinction and has moved its red line.

That arbitrariness is what makes the episode dangerous. If a practice that has been tolerated for decades can suddenly become sanctionable, then the problem is not the conduct of New Zealand MPs. The problem is Beijing’s willingness to redefine the rules suddenly and unilaterally. That makes engagement with Taiwan more unpredictable, because countries cannot know whether activities considered acceptable today will be punished tomorrow.

New Zealand is a useful target precisely because it is not usually seen as a front-line Taiwan actor. It has a substantial trade relationship with China, including a free trade agreement, a reputation for careful diplomacy, and a comparatively restrained public posture on Taiwan. By sanctioning New Zealand MPs, Beijing is signalling that even small and cautious democracies are now no longer exempt from punishment if their parliamentarians engage with Taiwan. The point is not only to punish these four MPs; it is to intimidate future delegations.

Wellington’s response has so far been careful but firm: it has reaffirmed its One China policy, but also rejected Beijing’s attempt to police parliamentary activity. New Zealand has raised the issue directly with China, and Australia has also complained to Beijing about the ban. That matters because it turns the episode from a bilateral dispute into a broader question about how democracies respond when China tries to impose costs on unofficial engagement with Taiwan.

For other countries, the message is clear: Beijing may increasingly treat unofficial engagement with Taiwan as sanctionable conduct, even when it is carried out by legislators rather than governments. The risk for countries is that silence and capitulation will only invite more pressure from Beijing. The opportunity is that even modest collective pushback can make parliamentary engagement with Taiwan harder to punish.

1-16 June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

6-10 June: Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s Palau visit

13 June: 18th Straits Forum will be held in Fujian

Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a regular press conference on 3 June that the 18th Straits Forum will be held in Fujian in mid-June, with the main forum scheduled for 13 June.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Beijing deploys new missiles matching Patriots opposite Taiwan
South China Morning Post
Mainland China has equipped frontline troops facing Taiwan with a new missile, according to mainland state media. The missile is believed to be an HQ-16F, which has comparable qualities to the US Patriot PAC2 and 3 systems. On 5 June, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV aired footage of the 73rd Group Army’s first operational and live-fire assessment of the missile in the Gobi Desert.

Taiwan says China Coast Guard patrols to its east are ‘provocative act’
Reuters
Chinese Coast Guard patrols to the east of Taiwan are a “provocative act” and the military will closely ‌coordinate with the island’s Coast Guard in responding, Defence Minister Wellington Koo said on 8 June … Late ​on 6 June Chinese state media said ships had been sent to carry out a “special maritime ⁠traffic law-enforcement operation” in the waters east of Taiwan.

• Taiwan hits back at Beijing’s ‘cognitive warfare’ after coastguard patrols. South China Morning Post

• China launches maritime law enforcement operation in waters east of Taiwan island after Japan-Philippines unilateral delimitation move. Global Times

• Chinese flotilla surges east of Taiwan amid spat with the Philippines, Japan. U.S. Naval Institute News

ASPI Comment: The spat is about China objecting to closer Japan–Philippines maritime security cooperation, especially around the South China Sea, Taiwan and nearby disputed waters. Beijing sees this as part of a wider US-aligned effort to contain China, while Japan and the Philippines argue they are responding to China’s coercive behaviour at sea. For Manila the focus is the South China Sea, especially the Scarborough Shoal; for Tokyo it is the broader pattern of Chinese pressure across the region.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

MAC bars central and local officials from Straits Forum
Taipei Times
Taiwan would not allow personnel from either central or local governments to attend the Straits Forum starting on Saturday next week in China’s Xiamen, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Deputy Minister Liang Wen-chieh said 4 June. “The Straits Forum serves as the Chinese communist government’s platform for deploying ‘united front’ tactics against Taiwan, whose goal is infiltrating Taiwanese society under the pretext of cross-strait exchange,” he told a routine news conference in Taipei. The move signaled a hardening of the government’s stance that had barred only central government personnel from participating in the summit, not their counterparts in local government.

Experts and industry representatives discuss integrated development of cross-strait new media industries: Making good use of AI to “connect hearts” [专家业者热议两岸新媒体产业融合发展：善用AI“心相连”]
Xinhua
Want Want Group Vice Chairman Chou Hsi-wei and Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Center for China and Globalization, delivered keynote speeches respectively on the themes “AI Without Borders, Hearts Connected Across the Strait” and “Immediate Success: Both Sides of the Strait Join Hands for the Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”. Gao said that both sides of the Strait should rely on digital technology to build consensus among the people and work together to promote national rejuvenation … Participants said that the new media industries on both sides of the Strait each have their own strengths and that there is great potential for integrated development. The mainland has vast market space, rich media application scenarios and a mature industrial ecosystem, while Taiwan has strong content creation capabilities, advanced technology research and development experience, and a broad communications outlook.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Legislature freezes part of Taiwan’s ADB donation over designation
Focus Taiwan
The Legislative Yuan’s Finance Committee decided on Monday to freeze nearly a quarter of the funding Taiwan has proposed to give the Asian Development Bank in 2026 in protest against the bank’s change of Taiwan’s designation 40 years ago … They said the NT$30 million will not be unfrozen until the ADB responds to Taiwan’s concerns over the designation. Though the Republic of China (Taiwan) was one of the founding members of the ADB in 1966, its designation was changed to “Taipei,China” (space after the comma deliberately omitted) in 1986, after the People’s Republic of China joined the bank.

• Legislative committee moves to freeze NT$30m in ADB funding over ‘Taipei,China’ name. Taipei Times

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan Affairs Office: If the DPP authorities dare to sell out national interests, they will be spurned and punished [国台办：民进党当局胆敢出卖民族利益，必受唾弃和惩罚]
Xinhua
Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said on 3 June at a regular press conference, in response to a question, that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China. The maritime area that Japan and the Philippines have announced they intend to delimit lies east of China’s Taiwan island. Their so-called “delimitation talks” seriously infringe on China’s maritime rights and interests, seriously violate international law and the basic norms of international relations, and are entirely illegal and invalid.

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure

The seabed is becoming a battlefield. Taiwan has field notes
The Strategist
As Australia strengthens the protection of critical seabed infrastructure, it should draw on Taiwan’s frontline experience. Taiwan has been battling this problem for three years … As Australia strengthens its undersea capabilities through AUKUS, Taiwan’s experience offers a separate and complementary source of operational insight. This would require no change to Australia’s policy settings. It would begin with recognising the practical value of lessons already learned.

Excessive Taiwanese data collection and privacy infringement

Taiwan telecom warns of travel eSIM use
Taiwan News
As overseas travel rebounds, Taiwanese travelers are increasingly turning to eSIM services instead of traditional roaming plans, but telecommunications experts warn low-cost options may pose cybersecurity and privacy risks … recent reports have raised concerns that some travel eSIM services route data through Chinese telecommunications networks, potentially exposing users to security risks.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Palau president affirms Taiwan sovereignty during Hsiao’s visit
Focus Taiwan
Palau President Surangel S. Whipps Jr. expressed strong support for Taiwan during Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s visit to the Pacific ally, saying on 7 June that failure to recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty would call into question the sovereignty of small countries. “If Taiwan’s sovereignty is not recognized, then who are we to say that we’re sovereign? Might as well eliminate all small countries,” Whipps said at a welcome dinner for Hsiao in Koror, Palau’s largest city. “We have to stand up for freedom. We have to stand up for democracy and we have to stand up for the rule of law,” said Whipps, whose country is one of Taiwan’s 12 diplomatic allies worldwide and one of three in the Pacific.

• Hsiao promotes Taiwan-Palau ties and tourism during official visit. Taipei Times

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China bans 4 New Zealand lawmakers after they visited Taiwan
AP News
Beijing banned four New Zealand lawmakers from traveling to China for a year and demanded they apologize because they visited Taiwan on a parliamentary trip, according to a message from the Chinese Embassy seen by The Associated Press on 4 June.

• Anyone who crosses the line, violates China’s core interests on Taiwan question will inevitably pay the price: FM on latest entry-ban measures on NZ lawmakers involved. Global Times

• Taiwan welcomes Australia-New Zealand support for Taiwan Strait stability. Taiwan News

• Christopher Luxon ‘appreciates’ Australia raising concerns with China over MPs Taiwan trip sanctions. New Zealand Herald

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Tokyo-Manila EEZ talks aim to counter China: FM
Focus Taiwan
Proposed talks between Japan and the Philippines on maritime boundaries in areas where their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) overlap are intended to counter China, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said 4 June, adding that Taiwan is in close contact with both countries to safeguard its rights. Lin said China’s military expansion has extended into the western Pacific and into the EEZs of Japan and the Philippines, with People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and vessels frequently operating near eastern Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands (known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands), and Batan Island in the Philippines.

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

China using ‘lawfare’ to target Taiwan and pro-independence voices, US commission says
First Post
A US congressional commission has accused China of increasingly using legal and judicial mechanisms as political tools against Taiwan, describing the practice as part of a broader “lawfare” strategy aimed at advancing Beijing’s territorial and political objectives. According to the report, China is using legal processes to intimidate, punish and suppress individuals it views as challenging its claims over Taiwan.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 26 May 2026 to 2 June 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

A strong economy, among other factors, is lifting President Lai Ching-te’s low approval ratings, suggesting his presidency may be stabilising after a difficult first two years. After months of weak polling, legislative gridlock and ratings that at times fell below 30 per cent, even a modest rebound is politically useful for Lai. But this is not yet a major political recovery; he may have just stopped losing support.

Recent polling suggests Lai’s public standing has improved slightly, though from a weak base. A TVBS poll released on 14 May put Lai’s approval at 38 per cent, up six points from its previous poll, while the Formosa poll showed satisfaction with Lai’s administration narrowly ahead of dissatisfaction, 45.7 per cent to 44.9 per cent.

That marks a recovery from last year’s low point, when TVBS put his approval at just 28 per cent in August 2025 after a series of political setbacks. It also remains well below the position Tsai Ing-wen was in two years into her first term, when one poll put her approval at 53.5 per cent. A recovery to the high 30s is therefore meaningful for Lai, but it looks more like a rebound from a trough than evidence of broad public enthusiasm.

His low ratings reflected the difficult political environment he has faced since taking office. Lai has had to govern without a legislative majority, while repeated clashes with the opposition-controlled legislature over budgets, defence spending and executive authority have made his administration look constrained and embattled.

Several factors may explain the uptick:

• A strong economy: This seems to be the clearest driver with TVBS attributing Lai’s rise from 32% to 38% largely to economic satisfaction, with economic approval rising from 34% to 46% amid a strong stock market and technology sector performance.

• National security is back at the centre of politics: China’s coercive pressure, uncertainty around Trump’s Taiwan policy, and debate over defence spending have all given Lai a powerful platform to push his stance on Taiwanese sovereignty, resilience and deterrence, all issues where the DPP usually has stronger credibility.

• The opposition may be helping him: The opposition-controlled legislature’s cuts to Lai’s special defence budget, and its failed impeachment push, may have helped Lai frame the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party as obstructing government rather than providing responsible oversight. In recent weeks, the legislature cut the special defence budget and tried unsuccessfully to impeach him over a tax revenue dispute.

• The mood around his government may be less negative: TVBS found that Lai’s personal approval improved, but satisfaction with the polciicy areas his administration directly controls remained around 31%. That suggests some voters may view Lai more favourably without being convinced by the government’s overall performance.

• His sovereignty message may be cutting through: A recent MOFA poll found over half of respondents satisfied with Lai’s diplomatic performance, suggesting his external-facing posture may be landing better than some domestic policy areas. Government-commissioned poll shouls be treated with caution, but it points to a possible area of relative strength.

The improvement in Lai’s ratings come at an important time, as municipal local elections are just months away. The implications of greater public approval for Lai on the November elections are real, but should not be overstated. Taiwan’s local elections are primarily fought on local issues: candidate quality, factional networks, service delivery, city and county governance, and the personal standing of incumbents. They are not straightforward referendums on the president. Still, the results can matter nationally because they shape party morale, affect Lai’s authority within the DPP, and influence the standing of potential presidential and legislative candidates ahead of the next national elections in two years.

A slight improvement in Lai’s ratings may help the DPP avoid entering the campaign under a demoralising anti-government mood, but it is unlikely on its own to transform difficult local races or overcome entrenched KMT advantages in key municipalities, particularly in the north of the island.

1-16 June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

Cheng is expected to meet US lawmakers, officials and academics. Politically, the trip is also framed as a “peace” mission, with Cheng signalling she is willing to meet any leader, including Trump, if it helps reduce conflict risk, while pushing her line that Taiwan should avoid steps Beijing could portray as “independence”.

• Taiwan’s KMT leader to begin US tour to promote cross-strait peace. NHK

6-10 June: Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s Palau visit

This will be Hsiao’s first visit to a diplomatic ally as vice president. The agenda is framed around deepening Taiwan–Palau ties, sustainable tourism, and cooperation projects in health, agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan tracks second Chinese ‘combat’ patrol in a week, sends ships and jets to monitor
Reuters
Taiwan sent ships and fighter jets ‌to monitor the second Chinese “joint combat readiness patrol” in a week near the island, in what a senior Taiwanese security official said showed China was the sole source of instability in the region. China has pressured Taiwan by increasing its military presence around the island, and Taipei is on high alert for further ​Chinese actions after President Xi Jinping discussed Taiwan with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing this month.

China’s navy is shifting pressure beyond the Taiwan Strait
The Diplomat
As temperatures rose sharply in May, China carried out four “joint combat readiness patrols” around Taiwan, on May 1, 6, 19, and 25. When compared with similar activity in recent years, this high frequency of military operations is unusual. It also suggests that the assumption that a recent decline in the number of PLA sorties around Taiwan necessarily indicates a reduced threat may not fully correspond to the current security environment in the Taiwan Strait.

China says Taiwan should not ‘interfere’ in its air force missions around island
Reuters
Taiwan should not “interfere” in Chinese air force missions around the island which are taking place in China’s airspace, the defence ​ministry in Beijing said on Thursday, responding to a week ‌of manoeuvres that Taipei has complained about … On 25 May of this week and ​Tuesday last week, Taiwan said China had carried out “joint combat ⁠readiness patrols” and published pictures of Chinese warships, as well as ​of Chinese fighters taken by Taiwanese jets. “Taiwan is a part of China,” ​Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin said in Beijing when asked to comment on the patrols. “Our aircraft conduct military activities within Chinese airspace.”

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Taiwanese youth in Guangdong watch A Love Letter to Grandma: feeling cross-strait affection through qiaopi letters [在粤台青观影《给阿嬷的情书》：从侨批中感受两岸情义]
Xinhua
The cultural study and exchange activity “Crossing Mountains and Seas to Seek Roots, Family-and-Nation Sentiment United in One Heart”, hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, was held in Guangzhou on 30 May. More than 20 Taiwanese students studying at universities including Sun Yat-sen University, Jinan University and Guangzhou Medical University took part in film screenings, exhibitions and discussion sessions, through which they experienced the deep connection between the two sides of the Strait, rooted in shared ancestry and cultural continuity.

On 30 May, Taiwanese students visited a special exhibition of film props from ‘A Love Letter to Grandma’ at the Guangzhou Overseas Chinese Museum. Photo by Xinhua reporter Yang Shenshen.

The fourth meeting of the fourth council of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) was held in Beijing [海协会第四届理事会第四次会议在京召开]
Xinhua
The fourth meeting of the fourth council of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits was held in Beijing on 27 May. The meeting focused on implementing the CCP Central Committee’s decisions and arrangements on Taiwan work, analysing the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, reviewing ARATS’ work over the past year, and setting plans for the next stage. The meeting called on ARATS, in the face of the complex and severe situation in the Taiwan Strait, to thoroughly study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important expositions on Taiwan work and the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era.

ASPI Comment: The Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) is Beijing’s semi-official body for handling cross-strait affairs with Taiwan, especially practical or technical matters that the PRC does not want to treat as state-to-state relations. It was established in 1991 and operates under the direction of the Taiwan Affairs Office. Its Taiwan counterpart is the Straits Exchange Foundation. In periods of cross-strait dialogue, ARATS has served as Beijing’s main negotiating channel with Taipei on issues such as travel, trade, transport and legal cooperation. Politically, however, it is not independent: it functions as part of Beijing’s broader Taiwan work system and reflects the CCP’s position that cross-strait engagement should occur under a “one China” framework.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Taiwan accuses China of trying to ‘silence’ its president after New York Times reporter expelled
The Independent
Taiwan has criticised China’s use of “crude methods” to prevent the media from engaging with its president Lai Ching-te after a New York Times reporter was expelled. The Chinese government expelled Vivian Wang, a journalist with the New York Times, in February following ane newspaper’s interview with Mr Lai in December. Wang, who had been working from Beijing for the American newspaper, was not involved in the interview conducted by NYT columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin.

Taiwan’s NGOs quit U.S. fundraising platform over ‘Chinese Taipei’ designation
Focus Taiwan
Several Taiwanese non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have announced plans to withdraw from U.S.-based fundraising platform GlobalGiving after it informed partners that projects currently listed under “Taiwan” would be redesignated as “Chinese Taipei.” The organizations said GlobalGiving told them the redesignation was prompted by pressure related to the platform’s planned expansion into China, a move they described as a downgrading of Taiwan’s status. Among the groups leaving the platform are the Taiwan Good Rice Circle Association, the Taiwan Gender Equity Education Association, the Judicial Reform Foundation, and the Reporter Cultural Foundation, which operates an independent media outlet, The Reporter.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Beijing praises actress Lin Chi-ling for quitting Taiwan culture board
South China Morning Post
Chinese authorities praised the decision of Taiwanese actress and model Lin Chi-ling to quit her position as a new board member of the Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA), after her appointment drew backlash. Chen Binhua, a spokesman for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a press conference on Wednesday that the TAICCA had orchestrated and funded films and television productions in recent years that “distort history and hype the ‘mainland threat’”. “It serves as a political tool for the Democratic Progressive Party to advance ‘cultural Taiwan independence’ and incite anti-China sentiments,” Chen said, referring to Taiwan’s ruling party.

Excessive Taiwanese data collection and privacy infringement

MODA warns of cybersecurity risks in Chinese-made apps
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Ministry of Digital Affairs (MODA) on 27 May said the public should be alert to cybersecurity risks posed by four Chinese-made mobile apps, including Amap, which currently tops both the Android and iOS download charts for navigation apps in Taiwan. The other three apps covered in the review were video platforms bilibili and iQIYI, and messaging app BIMOBIMO, according to MODA’s Administration for Cyber Security (ACS), which announced the findings at a news conference in Taipei.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

VP Hsiao to visit diplomatic ally Palau
Taipei Times
Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim is to embark on a five-day visit to Palau later this week to bolster diplomatic relations with the Pacific ally, the Presidential Office said 1 June. Hsiao is to meet with Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr and other government officials during her visit from 6-10 June, Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo told a news conference. She is representing President William Lai on the trip, following an invitation from President Whipps for the two Taiwanese leaders to visit, Kuo said.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Czech senate head says China can’t control them
Taipei Times
Visiting Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil yesterday said that China cannot tell the Czech Republic whom to befriend and said he has officially invited Taiwan’s Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu to visit the Czech Republic. Speaking alongside Han at a press event held at the Legislative Yuan, Vystrcil, who arrived in Taiwan yesterday morning, told reporters that Taiwan and the Czech Republic are “free and democratic countries and do not take orders from other countries.” “We will decide who to befriend and who not to befriend,” he said through an interpreter.

• Vystrčil says China cannot decide Czech-Taiwanese ties; invites Han. Focus Taiwan

• China strongly condemns and firmly opposes Czech Senate President’s visit to Taiwan region, spokesperson for Chinese Embassy in Czech Republic says. Global Times

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China responds to Japan-Philippines boundary talks with expanded sea patrols
South China Morning Post
Beijing has announced law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan, in retaliation against Japan and the Philippines’ decision to launch maritime boundary delimitation talks. According to a statement from China’s coastguard, a formation led by its vessel Daishan conducted the law enforcement patrols on 1 June “in accordance with the law”. “This is a necessary action taken in response to Japan and the Philippines’ unilateral announcement of the launch of maritime boundary delimitation negotiations in waters east of China’s Taiwan island, which seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesman Jiang Lue said in the statement.

• China Coast Guard conducts law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan island. China Daily

‘Makes no sense’: experts doubt pause in US arms sale to Taiwan is due to Iran war
The Guardian
The Trump administration’s war against Iran should have no impact on arms sales to Taiwan, experts have said, after a US official suggested a pause in the delivery of a key weapons package was due to the Gulf conflict. Analysts told the Guardian that a $14bn arms package left in limbo after Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping could take up to six years to process, and there was a “low likelihood” of any true connection between events in Iran and weapons delivery to Taiwan. Uncertainty over Washington’s support for the island democracy re-emerged after Trump suggested he could use arms sales to Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” in future talks with Beijing.

Ahead of Chinese foreign minister’s Ottawa visit, Canadian warship transits Taiwan strait
Toronto Star
Just days before China’s foreign minister is set to touch down in Ottawa for a pivotal three-day visit, a Canadian warship transited the Taiwan Strait. The Department of National Defence (DND) confirmed to the Toronto Sun on 29 May that the HMCS Charlottetown — a Halifax-class frigate based out of CFB Halifax — made the journey through the 180-kilometre-wide internationally-recognized waterway last weekend.

• Canadian warship transits Taiwan Strait despite China’s warning. The Globe and Mail

China urges utmost prudence in US approach to Taiwan question
CGTN
China’s Ministry of National Defense has urged the United States to approach the Taiwan question with utmost prudence. Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin made the call at a press briefing on 27 May in response to a media query about the US pausing a $14-billion arms sale to Taiwan, while including $1 billion in the so-called “Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative” in its National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027. “China’s opposition to US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region is consistent and clear,” Jiang said.

• US must honor consensus and handle Taiwan question prudently: spokeswoman. China Daily

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Lai says global health system must not leave Taiwan behind
Taiwan News
The global health system should not leave Taiwan out, President Lai Ching-te said on 28 May, after the country was once again not invited to take part in the World Health Assembly as an observer. Speaking at the Presidential Office while meeting members of Taiwan’s World Health Organization delegation, Lai said the group had returned from Geneva after seeking support for Taiwan’s role in global health affairs. He said 11 diplomatic allies backed Taiwan’s bid to join the WHA as an observer, while 26 countries and the EU also voiced support.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 19 May 2026 to 26 May 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Hundreds protested in Taipei on 23 May after Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature approved only about two-thirds of President Lai’s requested US$40 billion special defence budget, funding the US arms package but cutting domestic programmes such as drones and other locally produced capabilities.

Protesters viewed the cuts as part of a broader pattern in which Taiwan’s opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan obstructs the Lai administration mostly on a partisan basis and ends up using procedural power to constrain national security policy. They believe the opposition is sacrificing Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities on the altar of partisanship.

The cuts signal that the opposition is willing to fund US arms purchases while stripping out the domestic programmes meant to make Taiwan more self-reliant and harder to subdue. For many demonstrators, that looked less like budget discipline and more like recklessly weakening Taiwan.

As Wang Hsing-huan, chairman of the small but strongly pro-independence Taiwan Statebuilding Party, told the crowd: “True peace requires national defence. Only by strengthening our national defence can we ensure Taiwan’s freedom.”

The opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party argue they are not anti-defence. They claim that large spending packages need scrutiny, that the government has not provided enough detail about how the money will be spent, and that the legislature should not give Lai a blank cheque.

That is why the protest was about more than defence spending. It was also about sovereignty. The protesters fear that Taiwan’s own political dysfunction is becoming a strategic weakness. If Taiwan cannot build drones, munitions, unmanned systems and domestic defence production at scale, then its deterrence becomes too dependent on foreign arms deliveries at the very moment US support is becoming more uncertain under Trump.

The timing makes the fight even more consequential. Beijing is intensifying military pressure around Taiwan, Washington is demanding that Taipei do more for its own defence, and Trump’s recent comments have made future arms sales look increasingly transactional. Taiwan cannot afford for partisan budget fights to slow the capabilities it needs most, or to make its resolve look uncertain when deterrence depends on clarity.

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Defense report warns of risks posed by CCP outposts
Taipei Times
China’s outposts in the South China Sea could be used to delay and constrain foreign forces during a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, giving Beijing a critical window to carry out amphibious landing and blockade operations, a report said. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) forward operating bases on islands and reclaimed features in the South China Sea could delay foreign forces long enough for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to secure a key 48-to-72-hour window in the Taiwan Strait, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council found.

Taiwan says China deployed more than 100 vessels in regional waters
The Strait Times
Taiwan’s security officials said on May 23 that China has deployed more than 100 navy, coast guard and other vessels in regional waters stretching from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea and Western Pacific. The deployment began before US President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing, and increased to more than 100 after the summit ended, a security official told AFP on condition of anonymity. Mr Trump has caused jitters in Taipei after suggesting US arms sales to Taiwan could be used as a bargaining chip with China, which claims the island is part of its territory and has threatened to seize it by force.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Chinese ship leaves after tense standoff near Taiwan-controlled islands
Reuters
A Chinese coast guard ship left waters near Taiwan’s strategically ‌located Pratas Islands at the top of the South China Sea on Sunday following a tense standoff and verbal sparring between the coast guards, Taiwan’s Coast Guard said … Taiwan’s Coast Guard said on Saturday it had spotted a Chinese Coast Guard ship heading to the Pratas and immediately sent its own ship which broadcast warnings and the two sides “engaged in an intense verbal confrontation over sovereignty via radio.” The ​Chinese ship broadcast that it was on a routine mission and that China had sovereignty and jurisdiction over ​the Pratas, the Taiwan Coast Guard said.

• Taiwan, Chinese coast guard vessels in standoff near Dongsha Island. Focus Taiwan

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

No incidents to report this week.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

State Council Taiwan Affairs Office responds to Trump’s Taiwan-related remarks of ‘not looking to have somebody go independent’
Global Times
When asked how the Chinese mainland interprets the signals sent by the US after US President Donald Trump said in an interview following the China-US summit that he is “not looking to have somebody go independent” regarding the Taiwan question, and whether the Chinese mainland calls on the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities to resume dialogue on the basis of the 1992 Consensus, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday that the US side understands China’s position, attaches importance to China’s concerns, and, just like the international community, does not stand for or accept Taiwan moving toward “independence.”

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Lai Ching-te’s rhetorical packaging cannot change the essence of “Taiwan independence”; going against the tide will inevitably end in defeat [赖清德巧言包装难改“台独”本质，逆势而行必遭败亡]
Xinhua
After two years in office, Lai Ching-te — beset by failures, trapped at home and abroad, and having lost public support — has racked his brains to cobble together this set of fallacies and heresies. But hypocrisy and embellishment cannot conceal his separatist “Taiwan independence” nature, and deception and lies cannot blind the mainstream public opinion on the island, which wants peace, development, exchanges and cooperation. National reunification is unstoppable. Those who betray the nation and split the country will inevitably face the judgement of history and the people. Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities are recklessly charging down the dead-end road of “Taiwan independence” separatism. Their ending is already set: total destruction.

• Taiwan Affairs Office: Lai Ching-te’s actions in the two years since taking office have become increasingly unpopular [国台办：赖清德上台两年所作所为越来越不得人心]. Xinhua

Media reports “emigration wave” in Taiwanese society; Taiwan Affairs Office says the DPP authorities’ actions have left people in Taiwan anxious [媒体曝台湾社会掀“出走潮” 国台办：民进党当局所作所为让台湾人心惶惶]
Xinhua
Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said at a regular press conference on May 20 that, under the DPP authorities’ “independence”-seeking provocations and harmful governance, more and more people in Taiwan are worried that “Taiwan independence” will trigger war. They are concerned that their lives, property and development rights will not be protected, and are being forced to consider leaving their homeland and seeking another way out.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Marshall Islands reaffirms support for Taiwan globally
Taiwan News
Marshall Islands Ambassador to Taiwan Anjanette Kattil hailed the longstanding partnership between Taiwan and the Marshall Islands on Friday. Speaking at a celebration marking the Marshall Islands’ 47th Constitution Day, Kattil said diplomatic relations between the two countries were “founded upon shared democratic values, mutual respect, and genuine friendship.” Kattil said Taiwan “remains a trusted and steadfast partner” through cooperation in healthcare, renewable energy, agriculture, and other areas. The bilateral Economic Cooperation Agreement, which took effect in January 2025, has also led to stronger economic cooperation, she said.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Conservative MP’s Taiwan trip meant to defy China’s warnings, assert Canada’s sovereignty
CBC
Conservative MP Michael Chong says his trip to Taiwan this week is meant to exercise Canadian sovereignty and defy the Chinese government’s warning to Canada not to send parliamentarians to the region. “The goal was twofold,” Chong said in an interview with CBC’s The House. “First, it was to stand in solidarity with a democracy that’s on the front lines of threats coming from an authoritarian state. “The second purpose was to clearly state that MPs do not take direction from a foreign government as to where they travel internationally,” Chong told host Catherine Cullen.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Trump’s Taiwan gambit is already a gift to China
The New York Times
By laying out U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China, President Trump has handed a gift to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his efforts to undermine the Taiwanese government. On 18 May, China’s state media used Mr. Trump’s comments to send a message at home and to Taiwan: that the United States cannot be relied on to defend Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory … Mr. Trump’s remarks suggested he had partly absorbed China’s depiction of Mr. Lai as a dangerous separatist seeking to lead the United States to war. (Mr. Lai and his government say Taiwan is in reality already independent, and that it is Beijing that is the aggressor.)

• Is Donald Trump selling out Taiwan? The Economist

Uzbekistan reiterates support for the one-China principle [乌兹别克斯坦重申支持一个中国原则]
Xinhua
Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently reiterated that Uzbekistan abides by the one-China principle and supports the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. Uzbekistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Usmanov made the statement on May 18 during a meeting with Chinese Ambassador to Uzbekistan Yu Jun. Usmanov said the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing all of China, and that Uzbekistan firmly supports all efforts by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Why China might react badly to any call between Trump and Taiwan’s president
Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on 20 May he would speak with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, an unprecedented move for a U.S. leader that could roil U.S. relations with China and maybe prompt more Chinese war games around the island. It was the second time in a week Trump had ​said he intended to speak to Lai, dispelling initial speculation that his first mention of it after meeting Chinese President Xi ‌Jinping last week was a verbal slip … China’s foreign ministry, referring to the possibility of a Trump-Lai call, said on 21 May the United States should “handle the Taiwan issue with extreme caution and stop ​sending wrong signals to the separatist forces of Taiwan independence”.

US Navy signals pause in Taiwan arms sale, drawing swift reaction from Beijing
South China Morning Post
Beijing reaffirmed its opposition to arms sales to Taiwan after the acting secretary of the US Navy said Washington was pausing a US$14 billion weapons purchase by the self-governed island. “China’s firm opposition to US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region is consistent, clear and unwavering,” foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Friday.On 21 May, acting US Navy head Hung Cao told a congressional hearing that “right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury – which we have plenty”.

• China’s opposition to US arms sales to Taiwan region consistent, clear and firm, says FM after acting US navy secretary says Washington paused arms sale to island. Global Times

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Rally participants asked to hide ‘Taiwan’ shirts near WHA in Geneva
Focus Taiwan
Participants in a rally Sunday in Geneva supporting Taiwan’s presence in the World Health Assembly (WHA) were told by staff associated with the WHA to remove or cover up a T-shirt printed with the word “Taiwan,” according to one attendee. The rally was organized by several groups, including the Walking for Taiwan Association in Europe and Ananasli Kulturverein, a cultural group promoting Taiwanese culture to German speakers. The incident occurred as more than 100 participants, including Taiwanese living overseas and supporters of Taiwan, were gathered near the Place des Nations’ Broken Chair sculpture across the street from the United Nations complex, where the WHA was being held.

• The World Health Assembly rejected a Taiwan-related proposal for the 10th consecutive year [世界卫生大会连续第10年拒绝涉台提案]. Xinhua

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

Straits Exchange Foundation: Three I-Kuan Tao followers detained in China in May [首頁 / 兩岸海基會：3名一貫道信徒5月在陸被拘禁]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Straits Exchange Foundation Secretary-General Lo Wen-jia said on 22 May that this month, more I-Kuan Tao followers who travelled to Fujian and Guangdong in mainland China were deprived of personal freedom and detained. The cases involve three people across two separate incidents. Since 2019, there have been 17 cases involving 19 Taiwanese nationals detained in mainland China for religious reasons. Lo urged I-Kuan Tao followers not to travel to mainland China.

ASPI Comment: I-Kuan Tao, also known as Yiguandao, is a Chinese salvationist religious movement that blends elements of Buddhism, Daoism, Confucianism and folk religious practice. It has a large presence in Taiwan, where it was legalised in 1987, but remains politically sensitive in the PRC because the CCP has historically treated it as an illegal sect or “heretical” organisation. That makes Taiwanese followers vulnerable when they travel to China, especially if authorities suspect them of religious organising or proselytising.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 12 May 2026 to 19 May 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Beijing’s most important gain from the Trump–Xi summit may not be a concrete policy concession, but the perception that one is already underway. Xi did not need Trump to formally trade away support for Taiwan. He only needed Trump to sound like he might.

That is the narrative Beijing wants: that Trump is preparing to sell out Taiwan as part of a broader accommodation with China. Xi would no doubt welcome an actual deal that weakens US support for Taiwan. But Beijing does not need the deal itself to extract value from the summit. It needs the story of the deal. Trump’s instincts for dealmaking, public boasting, ambiguity and transactional leverage gave Beijing exactly that: a US president whose own words made Taiwan look negotiable.

Trump’s post-summit comments gave Beijing useful material. Asked about Taiwan arms sales, Trump said: “I’ll be making decisions,” before adding that “the last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles away.” That is ill-disciplined because it links the routine provision of defensive weapons to Taiwan with the risk of war. It implicitly accepts Beijing’s framing that US support for Taiwan is what produces danger, rather than China’s coercion and threats to use military force.

Trump also said Xi raised Taiwan independence and that he simply “heard him out” and “didn’t make a comment.” That is a problem because silence can be read as acquiescence. Beijing’s preferred language casts “Taiwan independence” as the central threat to peace, and Trump let that framing sit unchallenged. But Taiwan is not a province waiting to secede. It is an independent, democratic state under the name ‘Republic of China’, with its own government, military, borders, currency and elections. The real danger is not Taiwan suddenly “declaring independence” from China; it is Beijing using that hypothetical as a pretext to justify coercion.

That distinction matters because some of the post-summit media coverage then picked up Beijing’s framing, treating a Taiwanese “declaration of independence” as the provocative act to watch. But that framing starts from the wrong premise. It makes Taiwan’s existence look like the source of instability, rather than China’s threat to use force against a society it does not control. Washington’s better framing should be that the core issue is any forced change to the status quo. By failing to say that clearly, Trump allowed Xi’s terms of debate to stand.

The most damaging line was on the ‘Six Assurances’. Asked about the Reagan-era assurance that the US would not consult Beijing on Taiwan arms sales, Trump said: “I think 1982 is a long way away.” He then defended discussing arms sales with Xi. This weakens one of the core political guardrails in US Taiwan policy. Even if Trump did not make a commitment to Xi, the optics suggest Beijing has earned a consultative role in US decisions about Taiwan’s defence.

His comments to Fox News were worse. Trump said he had not approved the weapons package, that he “may do it” or “not do it”, and that “it depends on China” because it is “a very good negotiating chip for us.” That is exactly the narrative Beijing wants: Taiwan’s security being treated as a bargaining chip in a broader US–China negotiation. It tells Taipei that its defence may depend less on its own needs than on what Trump thinks he can extract from Xi.

Trump’s credibility problem compounds this. Because he routinely exaggerates and blurs fact with performance, even reassurance becomes unstable. When he says he made no commitment, allies may still wonder what was implied. When he says Xi does not want war, Beijing can pocket the compliment while continuing coercive pressure on Taiwan. When he says Taiwan is a “negotiating chip”, China does not need to prove the US is selling out Taiwan. It only needs Taiwanese voters to fear that it might.

Xi has his eye on Taiwan’s January 2028 presidential election. His goal is to erode Taiwanese confidence in the United States and encourage the election of a more Beijing-friendly leader. He is also preparing the language for a future crisis: if China creates one, Beijing will frame it as a reasonable response to American provocation.

Xi is still deterrable. But the goal must be to deter a crisis, not just a war. That requires resolve, restraint and disciplined language. Trump gave Beijing the opposite: ambiguity that sounded transactional, silence that sounded permissive, and rhetoric that made Taiwan look less like a partner than a bargaining chip to be haggled over.

19 May: Legislative Yuan to vote on President Lai impeachment

Taiwan’s opposition parties are set to force an impeachment vote against President Lai Ching-te over claims he rejected legislative oversight, but the motion is expected to fail because they lack the required two-thirds majority.

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (and removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

TAO again raises Taiwan travel; MAC reiterates need for “mini-two associations” tourism talks [國台辦再提赴台旅遊 陸委會重申觀光小兩會協商]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it had previously announced plans to promote the resumption of individual tourism to Taiwan by residents of Shanghai and Fujian, and hoped Taiwan would open up as soon as possible. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council reiterated that negotiations must first take place through the tourism “mini-two associations”, and said it hoped the other side would respond to this request.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Tonga-China Friendship Association condemns Taiwan authorities for disrupting Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting [汤中友协谴责台湾当局破坏太平洋岛国论坛领导人会议]
Xinhua
Reporters learned on 17 May that the Tonga-China Friendship Association had issued a statement condemning what it called attempts by the Taiwan authorities to disrupt the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. The association recently said in a statement that Taiwan’s authorities had used all means to try to disrupt the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, while repeatedly attempting to expand their so-called “international space” and pursue “Taiwan independence” separatist activities. The Tonga-China Friendship Association said it firmly opposed this.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Trump warns Taiwan not to declare independence
DW
US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Taiwan following his recent visit to China, cautioning against any move toward formal independence and reigniting tensions over one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints. Trump’s comments triggered concern and uncertainty in Taiwan, where officials stressed that the island is already a sovereign entity under its official name, the Republic of China.

• Taiwan insists it is independent after Trump warning. BBC News

• Trump warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ deals blow to DPP, Lai Ching-te: KMT vice chaiman. Global Times

• Taiwan vows to maintain ‘status quo’. Taipei Times

ASPI Comment: For more on why Taiwan cannot declare independence, even if it wanted to, see ‘Every day is Independence Day in Taiwan’ in The Strategist here.

Gov’t says Taiwan a full APEC member, blasts TAO’s ‘one-China’ remark
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) on Wednesday said the country has been a full member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) for decades, blasting China’s earlier statement that Taipei’s participation in the forum is conducted under the so-called “one-China principle.” Zhang Han, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), said at a regular news briefing earlier 13 May that China, as the host of APEC in 2026, will handle Taiwan’s participation in APEC meetings in accordance with the “one-China principle” and related APEC memorandums of understanding (MOUs) and practices.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Trump warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ sends shockwaves in island; remarks deal a severe blow to DPP and Lai Ching-te: KMT vice chairman
Global Times
US President Donald Trump’s warning against “Taiwan independence” has sent shockwaves through Taiwan’s media and political circles. While pro-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) outlets have largely attempted to downplay the remarks, a vice chairman of the Kuomintang characterized the speech as a severe blow to the DPP and Lai Ching-te. For analysts, the US president’s remarks underscore a highly pragmatic US approach. They note that Washington appears unwilling to allow a fringe group of separatist forces to derail vital US interests tied to the stability of China-US relations.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

MOFA strongly refutes false and malicious claims by China’s Foreign Ministry regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty and Paraguayan President Peña
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) condemns in the strongest possible terms and solemnly refutes the malicious statements made by China’s Foreign Ministry at a press conference on 12 May. By falsely claiming that Taiwan was part of China and that Paraguayan President Santiago Peña was a pawn of “Taiwan independence separatist forces,” China’s Foreign Ministry attempted to undermine the close and long-standing diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Paraguay.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China condemns Conservative MP’s Taiwan trip after ambassador’s warning
Global News
China’s embassy in Ottawa is criticizing a trip to Taiwan by Canadian MP Michael Chong, who said his visit is partly to “assert Canadian sovereignty” after China’s ambassador warned against future visits by parliamentarians. “Canada is a sovereign and independent country,” Chong said in a statement Sunday, the day he arrived in Taipei. “We do not take direction from a foreign government about where Canadian MPs can travel internationally, and where Canadian Navy warships can transit in international waters.” Chong was referencing a warning made by China’s ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, during an interview with The Globe and Mail last month.

• A ‘red line’: Chinese embassy condemns Canadian MP’s visit to Taiwan. CTV News

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Pakistan Foreign Ministry: Pakistan has always firmly upheld the one-China principle [巴基斯坦外交部：始终坚定奉行一个中国原则]
Xinhua
Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said on 14 May that Pakistan has always firmly upheld the one-China principle, and has maintained this principle in multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations and the World Health Assembly. Speaking at a regular press conference that day, Andrabi said Pakistan’s position on the Taiwan issue is consistent: there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. Andrabi said Pakistan firmly supports China’s efforts to safeguard national reunification, as well as China’s relevant initiatives in different multilateral mechanisms, especially at the World Health Assembly.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Trump noncommittal to continued Taiwan arms sales after meeting with Xi
POLITICO
President Donald Trump said he was still deliberating a major arms sale to Taiwan, floating what would amount to a significant change in American foreign policy following a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. “I’ll make a determination over the next fairly short period. I’m gonna make a determination,” he told reporters of the potential sale as Air Force One made its way back to the U.S. from China on Friday, saying he needed to speak to the person “that’s running Taiwan.”

• Lawmakers press Trump for military support for Taiwan after Xi summit. CBS News

• Taiwan president seeks US arms sales after Trump’s ‘negotiating chip’ remark. NHK

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Taiwan condemns China over WHA participation ‘non-approval’ comments
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan has condemned China for saying that it had decided not to approve Taipei’s participation in the upcoming World Health Assembly because Beijing sees Taipei as part of its territory. Chang Chih-sha, deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Department of International Organizations, reiterated the government’s stance on Tuesday that Taiwan, officially named the Republic of China, is an independent and sovereign nation. The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan at the United Nations and its affiliated agencies, or other international organizations, Chang said during a weekly briefing.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 28 April 2026 to 5 May 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwan is one of the clearest winners from the global AI investment cycle. In the first quarter of 2026, its economy grew 13.69% year on year, its fastest quarterly expansion since 1987. Global demand for Taiwan’s AI hardware drove this surge, with exports lifted by semiconductors, AI servers, high-performance computing, cloud infrastructure and related electronics.

Taiwan’s dominance in AI hardware brings real fiscal and strategic advantages. Rapid growth boosts government revenue, attracts industrial investment, lifts wages in high-tech sectors and expands the pool of capital Taipei can devote to its own defence. It also reinforces Taiwan’s centrality to the global economy, strengthening the case that Taiwan’s security is not merely a regional concern but a systemic one. In that sense, Taiwan’s economy is not just performing well; it is becoming even more strategically important.

But while Taiwan’s economy may be booming, it is a highly concentrated boom – one that leaves the island exposed to technology cycles, energy insecurity, US trade politics, Chinese economic coercion and the ever-present risk of cross-strait disruption.

Six key vulnerabilities are equally clear:

1. Taiwan’s growth is increasingly dependent on a narrow cluster of sectors linked to AI and semiconductors. If hyperscaler capital expenditure slows, if AI infrastructure demand normalises, or if inventories build across the electronics supply chain, Taiwan’s headline growth could fall quickly. This is not a broad-based domestic boom in which every sector is expanding evenly. This is a boom driven by technology exports.

2. Taiwan is a small, open, export-dependent economy. Its performance is highly sensitive to US technology demand, global electronics cycles, trade policy and supply-chain restructuring. The recent shift in export patterns has reduced reliance on China, with the United States overtaking China and Hong Kong as Taiwan’s largest export market in 2025. But that also means Taiwan is increasingly exposed to US technology demand, US trade policy and the sustainability of the AI boom.

3. Beijing can still target politically sensitive sectors—agriculture, seafood, tourism, consumer goods and Taiwanese firms operating in China—without directly damaging the semiconductor supply chains on which China and the world also depend. Its toolkit includes import bans, customs delays, regulatory investigations, informal boycotts, tourism restrictions, pressure on Taiwanese businesses and attempts to use market access to divide Taiwanese constituencies.

4. Taiwan imports most of its energy, which makes it vulnerable to shocks in oil, gas and shipping routes. This matters not only for household costs, but also for industrial resilience: semiconductor production is energy intensive, and the wider economy depends on stable maritime supply lines. Any prolonged disruption in the Middle East, South China Sea or waters around Taiwan would quickly become an economic-security issue.

5. Taiwan’s economic strength is inseparable from its strategic exposure. Its semiconductor dominance increases its value to partners, but also makes it a focal point for US–China technology competition, export controls, Chinese coercion and military risk. The “silicon shield” cuts both ways: Taiwan’s indispensability may deter disruption, but it also raises the stakes of any crisis.

6. The AI and semiconductor boom can widen the gap between globally competitive technology firms and the rest of the economy. High-end engineers, exporters and asset holders benefit disproportionately, while younger workers, service-sector employees and households facing high housing costs may feel much less prosperous.

So the state of the Taiwanese economy is generally strong, but brittle in specific ways. Taiwan is growing at an extraordinary pace because it is indispensable to the AI era. Its central challenge is that the very sectors driving its prosperity also deepen its exposure to technology cycles, energy shocks, US trade politics, Chinese economic coercion and cross-strait risk.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Why Beijing’s weaponised cargo ship could be a crucial player in the Taiwan Strait
South China Morning Post
Beijing’s latest weaponised container ship could play a key role in deterring foreign intervention at a low cost during a Taiwan conflict, according to a mainland Chinese military magazine. The Zhong Da 79 is a medium-sized civilian cargo ship capable of carrying containerised vertical missile launchers, radar sensors and self-defence systems. It was first spotted at the end of last year at Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding’s yard in Shanghai. An article by Ordnance Industry Science Technology earlier this month referred to the vessel as a “containerised destroyer”, noting its firepower matched that of the PLA’s Type 052D destroyers.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Sanctioning foreign companies for engagement with Taiwan

China’s sanctions hit Europe’s emerging drone doctrine
The Diplomat
By restricting European defense companies cooperating with Taiwan, Beijing is doing more than enforcing its One China Principle. It is severing Europe’s access to a valuable combination: Ukraine’s battlefield drone know-how and Taiwan’s high-tech components. Together, the Ukraine-Taiwan link offers a cheap, scalable war doctrine Europe increasingly needs … Several European countries have been quietly developing a new drone doctrine built on both Ukraine’s battlefield experience – accumulated over four years of war – and Taiwan’s high-tech components, including chips, batteries, and motors sourced outside Chinese supply chains.

Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Shanghai allows residents to visit Kinmen and Matsu
Taipei Times
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on 29 April said Taiwan has never restricted Chinese residents’ identifications for visiting Taiwan’s Kinmen and Matsu islands through the “small three links”, and that the restrictions were unilaterally set by China. As China now lifted its restriction, Taiwan will process Chinese travelers’ applications according to existing regulations, the council said. China’s Shanghai City Government yesterday lifted travel restrictions to allow city residents to visit Kinmen and Matsu individually or as part of group tours, through qualified travel agencies in Shanghai and Fujian, in accordance with related regulations.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Faith, hope and ancestry: William Lai’s clan village in Beijing’s push for cross-strait ties
South China Morning Post
The village of Xintian in Fujian province is usually a quiet rural backwater but that changed in November when popular Taiwanese YouTuber and bodybuilder Holger Chen Chih-han descended on the community. Chen, better known as “Gym Boss”, was on a tour of the mainland and live-streamed his visit to the village to his 1.3 million followers, including his stop at the Lai Clan Ancestral Hall … Since Gym Boss’ live stream, visitor numbers have spiked and the local government has urged the clan association to turn the village into a centre for cross-strait cultural exchange, according to a clan member. A new display hall for this purpose is under construction and is set to be completed by the end of the year.

ASPI Comment: For more on Beijing’s efforts to influence Taiwanese youth in 2025, see ‘Back to the old ways: China tries to persuade Taiwanese they’re Chinese’ in The Strategist here.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

Counting gains from Beijing, Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun eyes US trip in June
South China Morning Post
Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun is preparing to visit the United States in June, aiming to leverage the political momentum from last month’s meeting with Communist Party leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. Cheng, who heads the main opposition party Kuomintang, will also test her message on the Taiwan Strait in Washington. In recent media interviews Cheng has outlined an agenda that goes beyond traditional party outreach, promoting what she calls “a new road map” for cross-strait stability – one that she argues aligns with US interests while preserving Taiwan’s strategic autonomy.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Taiwanese baristas to compete as ‘Chinese Taipei’: Association
Focus Taiwan
The Taiwan Coffee Association said 29 April Taiwanese competitors will compete under the name “Chinese Taipei” in events organized by the World Coffee Championships (WCC), calling the change an unavoidable condition to safeguard participation rights. In a statement, the association said it had been informed by WCC organizers, based in the U.S., that all future entries must use “Chinese Taipei,” instead of “Taiwan.” The group noted that Taiwanese competitors have participated under the name “Taiwan” since 2007, but stressed the change was not its own decision and must be followed to ensure continued participation in international events.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Draft amendments aim to combat cognitive warfare
Taipei Times
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers have proposed amendments to the National Intelligence Services Act to define “cognitive warfare” and empower countermeasures against foreign influence. “Doubts about the US” and “doubts about the military” are recurring manufactured narratives used by the Chinese Communist Party, the National Security Bureau said earlier this year. DPP lawmakers such as Lin I-chin, Hsu Chih-chieh and Chen Pei-yu jointly proposed draft amendments to articles 3, 5 and 13-1 of the act that would define “cognitive warfare” as “the act of foreign or hostile forces using artificial intelligence [AI], information technology, or other means to spread false or misleading information, with the intent to disrupt government functions, social stability or the constitutional order of freedom and democracy.”

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Lai ‘smuggles’ himself out of Taiwan island hours after Yilan earthquake, performing laughable stunt, says FM on Lai’s private jet trip to Eswatini
Global Times
In response to Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te’s travel to Eswatini on its King’s private jet on Saturday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Saturday that just hours within the Yilan earthquake, Lai ditched the people in Taiwan who were still reeling from the disaster and sneaked onto a foreign plane to “smuggle” himself out of the island, squandering taxpayers’ money and performing a laughable stunt in front of the world. That just added yet another episode to the scandalous “Taiwan independence” separatism. The indignified act of Lai and his like once again proves that the one-China principle has long been a basic norm in international relations and prevailing international consensus, the spokesperson said.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Taiwan’s president makes it to Eswatini, in spite of Beijing
Semafor
Taiwan’s president made it to Eswatini, much to Beijing’s chagrin. The island’s leader, Lai Ching-te, had planned to visit his lone African ally last month but said he canceled his trip because China had pressured neighboring countries to close their airspace. Berlin and Prague also reportedly denied Taiwan’s requests to transit through Europe. But on Saturday, Lai announced he was in Eswatini following a clandestine, unspecified maneuver.

• Traditional welcome for Taiwan president as he visits Eswatini king. AP News

• Foreign Ministry Spokesperson answers reporter’s question regarding Lai Ching-te’s trip to Swaziland aboard the King of Swaziland’s “private jet” [外交部发言人就赖清德搭乘斯威士兰国王“私人飞机”窜斯答记者问]. Xinhua

• Taiwan president defiant on surprise Eswatini trip after China calls him a ‘rat’. The Independent

Paraguay says it’s not abandoning Taiwan. China has other plans
The New York Times
Paraguay today is the only South American country to maintain relations with Taiwan and has emerged as one of the most anti-China nations in Latin America … But China is increasing pressure on Paraguay to sever ties with Taiwan. In the past 18 months, it has been accused of launching cyberattacks against government agencies, bribing top Paraguayan politicians and enticing lawmakers with lavish trips to Beijing. Chinese diplomats have warned Paraguay to “make a correct decision as soon as possible” between China and Taiwan.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China tells Canada not to cross “red line” on Taiwan
Juno News
China’s ambassador to Canada is warning Ottawa that if the Liberal government wants to strengthen and build a “strategic partnership” with China, it must bar MPs from visiting the self-governed island of Taiwan and stop sending Canadian naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait. In an interview with the publicly funded Canadian Press, Chinese Ambassador to Canada Wang Di reportedly urged Canada to sever all ties with Taiwan and refrain from participating in U.S.-led exercises in the Taiwan Strait, claiming Taiwan belongs to China.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Taiwan leader’s last-minute plea to fly via Europe was rejected
Bloomberg News
Germany and the Czech Republic denied requests for Taiwan President Lai Ching-te to transit through Europe earlier this month, dooming his last-minute effort to circumvent a China-backed blockade of his first diplomatic trip to Africa, people familiar with the matter said. Taiwanese authorities made urgent transit requests to European countries including Germany and the Czech Republic after three Beijing-friendly African nations closed their airspace to Lai’s plane and cut off his direct flight routes to Eswatini, Taiwan’s only partner on the continent, according to three officials.

Foreign Ministry criticises some Japanese politicians: silent on historical issues, yet making irresponsible remarks about China’s Taiwan [外交部批一些日本政客：对历史遗留问题噤若寒蝉 却对中国台湾说三道四]
Xinhua
In response to plans by some Japanese politicians to submit a Taiwan-related proposal to the Japanese government, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on 30 April that many people of insight in Japan are reflecting on Japan’s domestic and foreign policies. There has also been much discussion around historical issues such as “comfort women” and forced labour, as well as the rights of Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities in Japan. Some Japanese politicians either remain completely silent or pretend not to hear about these issues, yet make irresponsible remarks about China’s Taiwan. As for their real intentions, Lin said, perhaps only they themselves know best.

China warns US about Taiwan ahead of Trump’s visit to Beijing
The Guardian
China’s foreign minister on Thursday urged the US to maintain “stability” between the two powers and warned that Taiwan posed the biggest risk, weeks ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing. In a call with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, foreign minister Wang Yi said that Beijing and Washington should “safeguard the hard-won stability” in China-US relations, China’s foreign ministry said. The talks also discussed the Middle East, where China has been a key partner of Tehran but has largely kept its distance after Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran, sending global oil prices spiralling. A state department official confirmed the phone call and said it was to arrange Trump’s trip but did not give further details.

Rights summit in Zambia is canceled after Chinese pressure to exclude Taiwanese activists
AP News
The U.S.-based organizers of an international human rights conference said they canceled it days before it was due to open because China pressured the African host country to exclude Taiwanese activists. Access Now, the New York-based advocacy group that organizes the annual gathering, said late Friday it had canceled the RightsCon summit in Zambia that was due to take place next week after the Zambian government initially said it was postponed. Access Now said it had been informed by Zambian officials that the government had been pressured by China over the conference “because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person.” Access Now said it pushed back on any move to exclude delegates from Taiwan.

• MOFA blasts Beijing after Zambia scraps RightsCon. Taipei Times

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 21 April 2026 to 28 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was set to visit Eswatini from 22 to 26 April, but the trip was abruptly derailed when Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar reportedly revoked overflight permissions for his aircraft shortly before departure. Taipei blamed Chinese economic pressure; Beijing has denied using coercion while also praising the three countries for upholding the “one-China principle”.

Image from Bloomberg.

The episode shows Beijing refining a tactic that sits below the threshold of military escalation: using third countries to turn routine aviation permissions into political leverage. Rather than directly confronting Taiwan, China can constrain Taipei’s international space using its partners willing to impose practical obstacles on its behalf.

Beijing did not need to publicly pressure Eswatini itself. Instead, it allegedly used political and economic influence with states along the flight path to make the visit logistically unworkable. This is coercion: weaponising the ordinary mechanics of international life, airspace approvals, flight information regions, diplomatic clearances and last-minute permissions, rather than relying on overt force.

The timing was also important. The permissions were reportedly revoked late enough to make rerouting difficult, raising the cost and risk of proceeding. That points to the coercive value of uncertainty. Even if Taiwan can eventually find alternative routes, Beijing can impose planning burdens, security risks and political embarrassment. The aim is not just to stop one trip; it is to make every future trip harder, more expensive and more vulnerable to disruption.

Taiwan’s response was to expose the coercion rather than take it quietly. Lai Ching-te framed the incident as an attack on Taiwan’s right to engage with the world, while Taipei accused China of using economic pressure against the three countries. Taiwan then sent Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung to Eswatini as Lai’s special envoy, signalling that Beijing could disrupt the format of engagement but not stop it altogether.

International responses were mixed. The United States publicly criticised China’s pressure campaign, while European representatives also voiced concern. Australia was more measured, with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade urging all parties to avoid actions that raise tensions and reiterating support for the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences. That stopped short of directly condemning Beijing, but signalled unease with coercive tactics that narrow Taiwan’s international space.

That response reflects a wider reality. Many middle powers dislike Beijing’s coercive methods but calibrate their language carefully to avoid unnecessary bilateral escalation. Public silence should not always be mistaken for strategic indifference.

The broader lesson is that China’s strategy is to compress Taiwan’s room for manoeuvre in the internationa space. Taiwan’s challenge is to keep operating internationally despite that pressure. Other countries’ challenge is to recognise that seemingly technical decisions on transit, access and protocol can become instruments of coercion if left uncontested.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun said she plans to visit the US in June, where she is to meet with political figures, think tanks and members of the Taiwanese diaspora to spread her message of cross-strait peace.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Taiwan on alert as Chinese warships are spotted near Penghu islands
The Globe and Mail
Taiwan has spotted two Chinese warships operating in waters near the Penghu islands in the Taiwan Strait and has sent its own naval and air forces to keep watch, the defence ministry in Taipei said … While Taiwan’s defence ministry offers daily updates of the locations of Chinese military aircraft, it only rarely gives details of where Chinese warships are operating, generally only when it detects aircraft carriers, as happened last week. On 20 April, the ministry said a Chinese destroyer and a frigate had entered waters to the southwest of the Penghu islands, home to major Taiwanese navy and air bases and close to the Taiwan side of the strait.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Sanctioning foreign companies for engagement with Taiwan

China bans dual-use items exports to seven European entities over Taiwan arms sales
CNA
China’s Commerce Ministry said on 24 April it was banning exports of dual-use items to seven European entities over arms sales to Taiwan, placing them immediately on its export control list, in a rare case of Europe-targeted, Taiwan-related sanctions … The entities, including German defence electronics firm Hensoldt and Belgian-based defence and sporting arms manufacturer FN Browning, have participated in arms sales to Taiwan or “colluded with Taiwan”, a commerce ministry spokesperson said in a statement.

• China bans exports of dual-use items to 7 EU entities involved in arms sales to or collusion with Taiwan island. Global Times

Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Taiwan business group urges Beijing, Taipei to keep politics out of trade
Reuters
The head of ​one of Taiwan’s top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei ‌should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island … China refuses to talk to Taiwan ​President Lai Ching-te saying he is a “separatist”, and has stepped up political and ⁠economic pressure in recent years, targeting tourism and imports of food, as well as holding ​regular war drills. “As soon as there is an opening up, it should be as much as possible ​be systematic and normalised to maintain the long-term stability of business and trade exchanges,” said Paul Hsu, chairman of the General Chamber of Commerce.

Economic security is national security
Taipei Times
Equating economic security to national security, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research associate research fellow Roy Lee said Taiwan needs to strengthen its economic security protections, with core strategies including maintaining competitiveness, economic autonomy and economic resilience. Lee, former representative to the EU, made the remarks at the 14th Global Taiwan National Affairs Symposium in Taipei on 26 April Amid geopolitical tensions and policy competition, the international economic order has reached a critical crossroads, he said.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

New policies, measures bring reassurance to Taiwan youth
China Daily
During the seventh forum of social groups of Taiwan compatriots, Taiwan youth Hsu Tao told China Daily that the newly released measures to boost exchanges and cooperation across the Taiwan Strait would bring more confidence to Taiwan youth on the mainland and further strengthen cross-Strait bonds.

Fujian launches premium tourism routes for Taiwan compatriots
Xinhua
East China’s Fujian province has recently launched five premium tourism routes designed for Taiwan compatriots to strengthen cross-Strait cultural ties through shared heritage and ancestral roots. The initiative, titled “The Journey of Shared Heritage and Glory”, was unveiled following a series of central government measures introduced on 12 April to promote cross-Strait exchange, including tourism. The five routes, each lasting six or seven days, focus on themes including southern Fujian culture, folk beliefs, ancestral temples, regional cuisine, and revolutionary history. Organizers said the routes are tailored to meet the needs of Taiwan residents seeking to visit ancestral homes, attend religious ceremonies, or reconnect with relatives.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Mainland reaffirms one-China principle on Lai’s canceled trip to Eswatini
CGTN
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has reaffirmed the one-China principle in response to questions on the canceled trip to Eswatini by Lai Ching-te, leader of China’s Taiwan region. A spokesperson said during a regular press conference on 22 April that the one-China principle is the will of the people. In the meantime, the Chinese Foreign Ministry, in referring to Lai, said that anyone who wears a false title is acting against history and will only invite disgrace upon themselves.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Phony whistleblowers, fake journalists and cyber spies: ICIJ network targeted after China Targets probe
International Consortium of Investigative Journalists
Hung, who knows malicious links can be used to steal personal information, suspects that his interlocutor was a Chinese spy impersonating the real Yi-Shan Chen, a financial journalist and editor-in-chief of CommonWealth magazine — a trusted news source in Taiwan … The real Chen told ICIJ in an interview that she shared Hung’s concerns. “Ironically, they are using the credibility of the investigative reporters to [collect] intelligence,” she said. Chen reported the impersonation attempt to Taiwanese authorities. Now, an investigation by ICIJ, with the help of cybersecurity analysts at Toronto University’s Citizen Lab, has found that the incident was part of a sophisticated offensive strategy against ICIJ and its network following the 2025 publication of China Targets. The ICIJ-led exposé, in collaboration with 42 media outlets, revealed Beijing’s tactics to threaten, coerce and intimidate regime critics overseas.

China turns Taiwan’s own voices against it in information war
Reuters
On Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, a news outlet run by the Chinese Communist Party posted a 51-second video of Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun accusing President Lai Ching-te of inviting Chinese aggression. Lai, Cheng said, was “dragging all 23 million of us” in Taiwan into a “dead end, a ​road to death” by pursuing independence. The clip quickly surfaced on Facebook, YouTube and other platforms popular in Taiwan … While China has in the past employed Taiwanese figures in its propaganda, it has turbocharged this information-warfare tactic, the Taiwan security officials said: Familiar voices and accents can sound more credible.

Reunification only path for Taiwan, serves well-being of Taiwan compatriots: mainland spokesperson
Xinhua
Reunification is the only path forward for Taiwan and is key to the well-being of the people on the island, a mainland spokesperson said on 22 April. Zhang Han, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remarks at a press briefing in response to a recent Taiwan poll, which showed that a majority of the respondents were in favor of strengthening cross-Strait exchanges to maintain peace and stability. The poll was released following the mainland visit by a delegation of the Chinese Kuomintang (KMT) party led by its chairwoman Cheng Li-wun.

PLA Navy’s new film marks anniversary, urges ‘Xiaowan’ (Taiwan) to return to motherland
Global Times
Marking the 77th anniversary of its founding on 22 April, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy released a promotional film titled Sailing Toward the Ocean, highlighting its leapfrog development from a modest origin to a modern force under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. The film features four generations of naval personnel and concludes with a symbolic “Easter egg” alluding to the eventual reunification of Taiwan island with the motherland.

Photo: Screenshot from ‘Sailing Toward the Ocean’.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Taiwan president blames China for forced cancellation of Eswatini trip
The Guardian
Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, has cancelled his trip to Eswatini, the democratic island’s only diplomatic ally in Africa, after his government said several countries had revoked overflight permits because of “intense pressure” from China … The secretary general of Taiwan’s presidential office, Pan Meng-an, said Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar unilaterally and without warning revoked flight permits for the presidential aircraft to cross their countries. “The actual reason was intense pressure exerted by Chinese authorities, including economic coercion,” he told a hastily called news conference in Taipei.

• Legislative Yuan committee condemns China after Lai forced to cancel Eswatini visit. Focus Taiwan

• The Mainland Affairs Council strongly condemned the Chinese Communist Party for its blatant obstruction of President Lai’s visit to friendly nation Eswatini [陸委會嚴厲譴責中共粗暴阻撓賴總統出訪友邦史瓦帝尼]. Mainland Affairs Council (Taiwan)

• The ugly side of Eswatini-Taiwan relations. The Diplomat

• US slams Beijing after African countries block Taiwan leader’s eSwatini trip. South China Morning Post

• International concerns raised after Lai’s flight blocked. Taipei Times

ASPI Comment: For more on what Taiwan hoped to gain from President Lai’s now postponed trip to Eswatini, see last week’s edition of ‘State of the Strait’ here:

Where is the China-Honduras relationship headed?
The Diplomat
One of the central issues during Honduras’ most recent presidential election was the country’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China. Opposition candidates at the time – Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura – suggested that ties with Beijing could be reassessed, leaving open the possibility of restoring relations with Taiwan, which Tegucigalpa severed only in 2023 … The most likely outcome is a balancing strategy: maintaining cooperation with China in strategic sectors while strengthening ties with the United States in areas such as security and migration – an approach not entirely dissimilar to that pursued by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Czech PM Babis criticises Senate leader’s Taiwan trip for damaging China business ties
Reuters
The Czech government will not make a government plane available for the Senate chief’s planned trip to Taiwan and wants a ​more pragmatic foreign policy that does not damage business ties with ‌China, Prime Minister Andrej Babis said … Babis said on social media on Sunday that ​Senate chief Milos Vystrcil, a member of the Civic Democrat party that led the ‌previous ⁠government, would lead a business delegation to Taipei in May but would have to travel by commercial airline.

Taiwan fears it’ll be ‘on the menu’ at Trump-Xi summit
Bloomberg
A senior Taiwanese official expressed concern that President Donald Trump might make concessions on the self-governed island in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, adding Taiwan was working hard to prevent such a scenario. “What we are the most afraid is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump,” Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu said Friday in an English-language interview with Bloomberg News. “We worry, and we need to avoid that it happens.”

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 14 April 2026 to 21 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te will visit Eswatini, Taiwan’s last diplomatic ally in Africa, from 22 to 26 April, in what will be Lai’s first overseas trip since November 2024. Eswatini is an absolute monarchy, and Lai’s trip coincides with the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III’s accession and his 58th birthday. But Beijing has not left Eswatini uncontested, steadily expanding its economic presence while increasing diplomatic pressure to prise it away from Taipei.

Lai Ching-te’s upcoming trip underscores that Taiwan’s shrinking pool of formal partners still carries strategic weight, and that in Africa, Eswatini has become the clearest test of whether Taipei can hold ground against Beijing’s sustained campaign of diplomatic isolation.

Taipei has framed the trip around three goals: advancing work on a strategic oil reserve facility in Eswatini, expanding the Taiwan Industrial Innovation Park there, and deepening digital and smart-city cooperation. These initiatives are designed to make the relationship harder to dislodge by tying diplomatic recognition to tangible gains in state capacity, investment and infrastructure.

That also explains why Lai is going now. Taiwan has few formal allies left. A presidential visit signals that Taipei still treats these relationships as politically important. It also helps reassure Mbabane that recognition of Taiwan still brings access, attention and tailored assistance from the highest level. This is especially important because Eswatini offers Taiwan something larger than its size: a sovereign African partner that breaks Beijing’s preferred narrative of total diplomatic inevitability on the continent.

More broadly, Taiwan–Eswatini ties appear stable, but their scale remains modest relative to larger diplomatic relationships. The two sides have maintained relations since 1968, and the partnership has expanded through health, agriculture, education, women’s empowerment, renewable energy and trade cooperation. Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs says two-way trade reached USD$8.19 million (AUD$11.45 million) in 2024, up 8 percent from 2017, while Eswatini’s exports to Taiwan rose by more than 29 percent over that period.

Beijing has not yet pulled Eswatini away from Taipei, but it is clearly using a mixture of carrots and sticks. Chinese officials have publicly urged Eswatini to “make correct decisions”, and China’s latest zero-tariff policy for African countries explicitly excludes Eswatini because it recognises Taiwan. At the same time, Beijing has been building unofficial economic footholds: reporting in 2025 showed a Chinese state-owned firm had secured Eswatini’s first major mainland Chinese infrastructure contract, the Mpakeni Dam project, despite the absence of diplomatic ties.

So is Beijing making inroads? Yes, but not yet a decisive breakthrough. China is increasing the suite of potential inducements and demonstrating that economic engagement can expand even without formal recognition. That creates optionality for Eswatini’s monarchy. But there is still no clear public evidence that a switch is imminent.

For now, Lai’s trip looks like an effort to keep it that way: reinforce the alliance, raise the political cost of defection, and show that even one remaining African partner is worth a presidential-level investment.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

22–26 April: President Lai will travel to Eswatini

Lai Ching-te will travel to Eswatini from 22 to 26 April for high-profile royal celebrations, a visit that underscores Taipei’s effort to reinforce its last remaining diplomatic foothold in Africa while signalling a more security-focused and strategically resilient partnership amid sustained pressure from Beijing.

11 April to 24 April: Han Kuang 42 Tabletop War Games

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Could the PLA use minelaying drones in a first island chain blockade over Taiwan?
South China Morning Post
The People’s Liberation Army could use minelaying drones to blockade Japan and other waters in the strategic first island chain during a conflict over Taiwan, a mainland Chinese military magazine has suggested. The PLA’s strategy would see AJX002 drones used for “offensive minelaying” missions targeting Japan’s islands, including the Ryukyu archipelago, as well as the waters of the Philippines, according to an analysis in the latest edition of Shipborne Weapons.

Foreign media reveal Chinese fishing boats gathering in formation in the East China Sea; Chinese state media calls it malicious hype [外媒揭中國漁船東海陣列式聚集 中國官媒稱惡意炒作]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Several foreign media outlets recently reported that thousands of Chinese fishing boats repeatedly gathered in the East China Sea in specific formations, raising suspicions that the activity could be part of rehearsals for a military assault on Taiwan. Chinese state media outlet Global Times rejected the claims on 17 April as malicious sensationalism … The report quoted Zhoushan fisherman Chen Yanping, who said claims by foreign media that the gatherings were military activity were “complete nonsense”. He said that if many fishing boats gather in one sea area at a certain time, it is mainly because different fishing seasons bring different catches, and once fish schools are found in one area, boats naturally converge there.

How the PLA may use stealth drones in a swarming boat attack from Taiwan
South China Morning Post
A Chinese military magazine has suggested that if Taiwan sends a swarm of uncrewed combat boats across the strait – a strategy inspired by Ukraine – Beijing could counter with its GJ-21 stealth attack drones. According to a commentary in Defence Review, the GJ-21 has long endurance and high manoeuvrability, which would give it a critical advantage against a “game changing” swarm attack by unmanned surface vessels

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (and removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Taiwan confirms China has asked for more cross-strait flights
Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese authorities on 16 April confirmed they had received a message from the Chinese side calling for the “full normalization” of direct cross-strait passenger flights, but did not say when they would reply, as officials said existing services still have spare capacity. “The Chinese side sent a letter on April 7 saying it hoped several destinations, including Urumqi and Xi’an, could be reopened,” MAC deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh said at a regular news briefing in Taipei. As 7 April was the day Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wun departed for her trip to China, Liang said Taiwanese authorities already knew by then that such proposals would be included in the 10 policy measures announced by China targeting Taiwan.

• China’s ‘incentives’ are ‘poison’: official. Taipei Times

Corporate espionage or undermining business practices

CCP seeks to advance 10 Taiwan-related measures; MAC urges businesses to stand with government [中共欲推涉台10項措施 陸委會籲業者和政府站在一起]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Some industry groups are reportedly planning to hold a press conference tomorrow to comment on the Chinese Communist Party’s 10 Taiwan-related measures. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) today again urged businesses not to allow themselves to be used as tools to pressure the government, and instead to stand with the government in jointly demanding that Beijing cease political manipulation and begin negotiations with Taiwan’s government as soon as possible. Media reports said that, in response to the 10 measures announced by China, General Chamber of Commerce chairman Hsu Shu-po plans to hold a press conference on the 20th and mobilise representatives from seven trade associations and industry groups to pressure the government.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Top political advisor attends Taiwan compatriots forum
CGTN
Chinese top political advisor Wang Huning attended the opening of the seventh forum of social groups of Taiwan compatriots in Beijing on 17 April, and delivered a speech. Speaking at the forum, Wang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), called for efforts to firmly implement the Party’s overall policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era, and adhere to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus.

• Wang Huning attends opening ceremony of the 7th Taiwan Compatriot Associations Forum [王沪宁出席第七届台胞社团论坛开幕式]. Xinhua

Taiwan forum hears calls for protection of resistance war history
China Daily
Taiwan compatriots living overseas called for the preservation of Chinese historical memory during their visit to the Museum of the War of Chinese People’s Resistance Against Japanese Aggression in Beijing on 16 April. The guests were attending the seventh forum of social groups of Taiwan compatriots, organized by the All-China Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, in the capital … “The Chinese mainland has preserved this history very well, allowing it to be passed down to future generations,” he said, calling on young people to visit the museum and experience it firsthand.

Taiwan holds Bingwu Year ceremonial homage to the Yellow Emperor [台湾举行丙午年恭拜轩辕黄帝大典]
Xinhua
The third day of the third lunar month is traditionally regarded as the birthday of Xuanyuan Yellow Emperor, considered a founding cultural ancestor of the Chinese people. On 19 April, corresponding to that date on the lunar calendar, a ceremonial homage to the Yellow Emperor was held at Tamsui Yellow Emperor Temple in New Taipei City. Organisers said the event aimed to preserve millennia of civilisation and promote the spirit that both sides of the Taiwan Strait share common roots and ancestry.

Photo taken at the Yellow Emperor Temple in Tamsui, New Taipei City, Taiwan, showing the grand ceremony commemorating the Yellow Emperor in the Year of Bingwu. (Xinhua/Li Jianhua)

Bellicose language about Taiwan

China says its military activities around Taiwan are ‘reasonable, justified’
Reuters
China’s regular military activities around Taiwan are “entirely justified and reasonable” and any tensions are the fault of the government in Taipei, the Chinese defence ​ministry said in a rare comment on 17 April … China generally does ​not provide regular commentary on its daily activities near Taiwan. Chinese Defence Ministry ​spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang told reporters that Taiwan was an “inalienable part of ⁠Chinese territory”. “The People’s Liberation Army organises training and exercise activities in the waters ​and airspace around the Taiwan island to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, which ​is entirely justified, reasonable, and a matter of course,” he said.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Xinjiang tour guide whose video went viral wishes to visit Taiwan
China Daily
Tour guide Dilinur Tursunjan, 26, from the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, said she is looking forward to visiting her friends in Taiwan and seeing the place in person. Dilinur served a family from Taiwan who were touring northern Xinjiang in October last year and southern Xinjiang in March. After spending almost a month together, they have established an emotional link “even closer than friendship”, she said … Lin told Dilinur they wanted a third trip, and at that time, it would be better if there were a direct flight from Taipei to Urumqi. Now they had to transfer via Hong Kong.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Lai Ching-te curries favour with the US, clings to it, and is selling out, harming and destroying Taiwan: Ministry of National Defence [国防部：赖清德对美输诚贴靠 卖台祸台毁台]
Xinhua
Taiwan is part of China, so what “defence budget” could there be? For the sake of his separatist interests, Lai Ching-te is using the hard-earned money of Taiwan’s people to show loyalty to and attach himself to the United States. This is purely an act of selling out Taiwan, harming Taiwan and destroying Taiwan, while accelerating the island’s slide toward danger and conflict. Some people in the United States are squeezing Taiwan for everything they can get. They do not care whether Taiwan is secure or not. What they really care about is whether they can make more money, even profiting from war itself.

No incidents to report this week.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China slams transiting of Japanese warship via Taiwan Straits, calls it ‘deliberate provocation’
Global Times
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and China’s Ministry of National Defense voiced China’s firm opposition and protests on 17 April over the entry of a Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) vessel into the Taiwan Straits, while the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) vowed to resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty and security, as well as regional peace and stability.

• Japan shifting to central role in alliances: experts. Taipei Times

• Japanese warship transits Taiwan Strait; Chinese state media says it seriously damages political foundations of bilateral ties [日艦通過台海 中國官媒：嚴重損害兩國關係政治基礎]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

For more on how Beijing’s pressure campaign has produced the opposite effect on Japan’s strategic thinking towards Taiwan, see ‘Beijing pressured Japan over Taiwan. It only strengthened Tokyo’s resolve’ in The Strategist here.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 6 April 2026 to 14 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li-wen’s six-day trip to China was carefully sequenced to send three messages at once: to Beijing, that the KMT remains a useful political interlocutor; to Taiwanese voters, that the KMT can still claim a cross-strait stabilising role; and to external partners, that channels other than Taiwan’s elected government remain available to manage tensions. The trip ran from 7 to 12 April, with stops in Shanghai, Nanjing and Beijing, culminating in Cheng’s meeting with Xi Jinping on 10 April.

7 April 2026 | Shanghai to Nanjing

Cheng entered China via Shanghai, where she was met by Song Tao, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office. That arrival sequence mattered. It gave the trip an official, choreographed feel, but kept it within the Chinese Communist Party’s preferred party-to-party framework rather than formal state-to-state engagement. Even on day one, the message was clear: Beijing will not engage Lai Ching-te’s government, but it will elevate opposition figures willing to operate within its terms.

8 April 2026 | Nanjing and Shanghai

The stop in Nanjing, the former capital of the Republic of China, before that government fled to Taipei, was loaded with symbolism. Cheng visited Sun Yat-sen’s mausoleum and invoked the Republic of China and the 1992 Consensus, before meeting Jiangsu party secretary Xin Changxing. This was classic KMT–CCP historical theatre. Nanjing provided a platform to invoke shared political heritage.

9 April 2026 | Shanghai

Back in Shanghai, Cheng toured technology company Meituan, Yangshan Port and the facilities of state-owned defense contractor Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China — pairing this with peace-oriented messaging, including that “birds, not missiles, should fly in the skies”. This translated abstract calls for stability into visible economic dividends. Beijing showcased its the scale and modernisation of its economy; Cheng framed engagement as a pathway to prosperity.

10 April 2026 | Beijing

The centrepiece of the trip was Cheng’s meeting with Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. This was the first KMT–CCP leader-level meeting in nearly a decade, and the moment Beijing sought to maximise. Xi reiterated familiar themes on shared identity and eventual unification. For Cheng, the meeting conferred stature, but also sharpened criticism from the DDP and international observers that the KMT was helping Beijing sideline Taiwan’s elected government.

11–12 April 2026 | Beijing

The final phase shifted to incentives and consolidation. Beijing rolled out measures on tourism, flights and trade, while discussing a longer-term CCP–KMT communication mechanism. Cheng’s visit to a Xiaomi facility before departure reinforced the economic framing. The sequencing was deliberate: symbolic alignment first, material inducements second.

What it means

For the KMT, the trip underscores a persistent strategic dilemma. Engagement with Beijing can still generate access, visibility and the promise of economic benefit, but it increasingly comes at the cost of domestic political credibility.

In Taiwan’s current environment, where scepticism of Beijing is high, such visits risk reinforcing the perception that the KMT is out of step with mainstream voter preferences and too willing to operate within Beijing’s political framing. That may have limited impact in municipal politics, but it is a serious liability in presidential contests, where cross-strait positioning is decisive.

For Beijing, the trip is a case study in its preferred Taiwan strategy: unification through coercion. Rather than moving toward employing a risky military option, Beijing continues to combine political signalling, economic inducements and targeted elite engagement to shape Taiwan’s politics over time. Elevating opposition figures, offering selective incentives and reinforcing narratives of inevitability are all designed to normalise integration and erode resistance. The constraint is that these efforts are producing diminishing returns.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

Historically, major PLA drills cluster around political triggers, and April remains a sensitive period given precedent, including the April 2025 Strait Thunder exercises. Recent reporting reinforces this pattern, with China reserving offshore airspace over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 27 March to 6 May, an established precursor to large-scale drills and a signal of sustained operational activity. Taken together, this points to a high-probability window for renewed PLA operations in early April, likely involving coordinated air–sea manoeuvres, rapid mobilisation timelines, and blockade-oriented rehearsals rather than purely symbolic signalling.

11 April to 24 April: Han Kuang 42 Tabletop War Games

Taiwan has kicked off the tabletop (simulation) phase of its 2026 Han Kuang military exercises with a focus on testing command decision-making and coordination under more realistic conditions. The drills are introducing U.S.-style rehearsal methods—such as mission backbriefs and combined arms coordination—to improve how units plan and execute operations, while for the first time integrating military intelligence units into the simulations to enhance battlefield awareness.

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China?

A summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has shifted from an earlier tentative window of 31 March to 2 April to possible dates of 14-15 May, though it remains highly fluid. Recent signals from Trump indicate the meeting is being treated as leverage, with expectations that Beijing could offer concessions, including playing a role in stabilising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan spotted Chinese warplanes as Xi met opposition leader in Beijing
Reuters
Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday that it spotted 16 Chinese warplanes operating near the island the previous day, around the same time China’s president was ​meeting the Taiwanese opposition leader. Late on the morning of 10 April, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Cheng ‌Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT) in Beijing, where Xi said he “absolutely would not tolerate” independence for Taiwan, which China views as its own territory.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (then removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

China to resume flights to Taiwan in bid to ease tensions
The Independent
China has announced it will resume certain ties with Taiwan, including direct flights to mainland cities and imports of Taiwanese aquaculture products. The move comes as the leader of Taiwan’s opposition party concludes her visit to Beijing. The Taiwan Work Office, under China’s Communist Party, issued a statement indicating it would explore establishing a long-term communication mechanism between the Communist Party and Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party.

• China open to Taiwanese TV and imports after opposition visit. Financial Times

• Mainland rolls out policy package to boost cross-Strait ties. China Daily

• Be cautious of China ‘incentive’: expert. Taipei Times

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Cheng Li-wen leads Kuomintang delegation in paying tribute at Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum [郑丽文率中国国民党访问团拜谒中山陵]
Xinhua
At around 9 am, Cheng Li-wen and her delegation arrived at the Bo’ai Plaza of the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum, ascending the steps and entering the memorial hall. Before the seated stone statue of Sun Yat-sen, Cheng, accompanied by vice chairs Justin Lee (Li Chien-lung), Chang Jung-kung and Hsiao Hsu-tsen, along with other members of the delegation, stood in solemn silence … Paying tribute at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum has long been a key part of visits to the mainland by Kuomintang chairs. After the ceremony, Cheng told reporters that the purpose of the trip was to “plant the seeds of peace” for Chinese people on both sides of the strait, with each person nurturing them so that the tree may grow, branch out, and become towering. “So that all future generations can live under its shade and pursue their own life dreams without concern.”

ASPI Comment: The CCP co-opts Sun Yat-sen as a symbolic bridge to fold Taiwan into its unification narrative, portraying him as a shared national figure whose legacy must culminate in “national rejuvenation” under CCP rule. Through state media, United Front activity and messaging from Xi Jinping, Sun is reframed as evidence that both sides of the strait belong to one China, sidelining Taiwan’s democratic transformation and recasting the Republic of China as a temporary stage rather than a continuing sovereign system.

On the morning of 8 April, Kuomintang Chair Cheng Li-wen led a KMT delegation in paying tribute at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Xing Guangli)

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

KMT chair welcomes China’s Taiwan measures as party members urge pragmatic response
Focus Taiwan
Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wun returned from a six-day visit to China on 12 April welcoming Beijing’s newly announced Taiwan incentive measures, as party figures and tourism representatives called on the government to respond pragmatically. Upon arriving at Taoyuan International Airport from Beijing on Sunday afternoon, Cheng told reporters she was “very thankful” to the Taiwan Work Office of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee for announcing the 10 preferential measures for Taiwan.

• General Secretary Xi Jinping met with Kuomintang Chairperson Cheng Li-wen [习近平总书记会见中国国民党主席郑丽文]. Xinhua

• Mainland Affairs Council criticises Xi–Cheng meeting: ‘peace framework’ is in fact a ‘unification framework’ [陸委會批鄭習會：「和平框架」實為「統一框架」]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

On the morning of 10 April, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping met in Beijing with a Kuomintang delegation led by Chair Cheng Li-wen. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Xie Huanchi)

Espionage

Chinese infiltration targeting rank-and-file: NSB
Taipei Times
China’s infiltration of Taiwan is systematic, planned and targeted, with recent activity shifting from recruiting mid-level military officers to rank-and-file enlisted personnel, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said 8 April. The Legislative Yuan invited Tsai to deliver a report on bureau operations to its Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee. China’s infiltration is systematic, in that it integrates national security, intelligence operations and “united front” work into a dense network to conduct intelligence gathering and espionage in Taiwan, he said.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Xi tells Taiwan opposition leader people on both sides of strait are Chinese in rare meeting
The Guardian
In a rare meeting with Taiwan’s opposition leader, China’s president, Xi Jinping, declared that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were Chinese and wanted peace … Cheng has previously said that it was a “very natural thing” to identify as Chinese – a stance that is increasingly at odds with mainstream opinion in Taiwan where polling suggests two-thirds of people see themselves as being primarily Taiwanese. Meeting Xi in Beijing, Cheng said that Taiwan should “no longer be a flashpoint for potential conflict” and should instead become “a symbol of peace jointly safeguarded by Chinese people on both sides of the strait.”

• Xi–Cheng meeting: Xi Jinping emphasises correct identification and peaceful development [鄭習會 習近平強調正確認同與和平發展]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

• “Firmly keep the future of cross-strait relations in the hands of the Chinese people themselves” — General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech inspires compatriots on both sides of the strait to jointly advance the great cause of national rejuvenation [把两岸关系的未来牢牢掌握在中国人自己手中——习近平总书记重要讲话激励两岸同胞共创民族复兴伟业]. Xinhua

China will not tolerate independence for Taiwan, Xi tells island’s opposition leader
Reuters
China will “absolutely not tolerate” independence for Taiwan, which is ​the chief culprit in undermining peace in the Taiwan Strait, President Xi Jinping told the island’s opposition leader on Friday, calling ‌for efforts to advance “reunification”. Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), is in China on what she has called a peace mission to reduce tensions at a time when Beijing has stepped up military pressure against the island it claims as its territory.

ASPI Comment: For more on how Beijing exploits the ambiguity around “independence” to cast routine democratic actions as provocations, turning Taiwan’s everyday exercise of sovereignty into a perceived trigger for escalation, see ‘Every day is Independence Day in Taiwan’ in The Strategist here.

No incidents to report this week.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

North Korean leader backs China’s push for ‘multipolar world’
POLITICO
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un voiced support for China’s push to build a “multipolar world” and called for deeper ties between the traditional allies during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, state media said 11 April. During the meeting on 10 April, Kim said his government will fully support Chinese efforts to achieve territorial integrity based on its “one-China principle,” a reference to Beijing’s official position that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 31 March 2026 to 7 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Over the past two weeks, visiting parliamentary delegations have sent a clear message of support for Taiwan, but have offered little in the way of new, tangible defence assistance. The visits underline a harder truth: international backing remains conditional and mostly rhetorical, even as Taiwan’s own defence politics come under increasing strain.

The most prominent engagement was a bipartisan US congressional delegation to Taipei on 30–31 March, led by Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire. Meetings with Lai Ching-te and senior officials focused on defence preparedness, particularly Taiwan’s stalled budget and special funding package.

Lawmakers reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s security while pressing Taipei to move ahead with its own defence spending. The message was clear: even congressional support, which has been more consistent than President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, will continue, but it is not unconditional. Taiwan is still expected to take greater responsibility for its defence.

European delegations, meanwhile, have reinforced political and economic ties but offered even less in defence terms. A recent example was a cross-party delegation from the European Parliament visiting Taipei from 30 March to 2 April, which focused on trade resilience, supply chains and democratic cooperation rather than security assistance. While symbolically important, these visits underscore the limits of Europe’s role in Taiwan’s security, despite an increase in visits by current and former Taiwanese officials to Europe in 2025.

On one level, visits by US and European officials demonstrate that Taiwan is not isolated. They sustain political visibility, reinforce informal partnerships, and signal to Beijing that Taiwan retains international backing. On another level, however, they fall well short of altering the material balance. No new arms packages were announced, no funding commitments were made, and no additional security guarantees were offered.

Existing US arms sales and training programmes remain the centrepiece of Taiwan’s defence relationship with Washington. Visiting officials emphasised the importance of absorbing and operationalising systems already in the pipeline, including HIMARS, munitions, and F-16-related capabilities, rather than introducing new ones. This reflects a broader shift in US thinking: the priority is not what Taiwan can buy next, but whether it can effectively use what it already has.

Perhaps most notable is the normalisation of these visits. Over the past fortnight, engagements have passed without major incident from Beijing. This suggests that Beijing increasingly views such visits as manageable background activity, part of a continuous signalling environment rather than discrete provocations. For Taiwan and its partners, this lowers the political cost of engagement, but it also reduces the signalling impact of any single visit.

The past two weeks of delegation activity point to a stable but constrained pattern. Taiwan continues to receive regular expressions of international support, particularly from the United States, but these are not translating into immediate, tangible defence gains. The burden of strengthening deterrence remains heavily centred on Taiwan itself: its budget decisions, its political cohesion, and its ability to convert existing support into usable capability.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

Historically, major PLA drills cluster around political triggers, and April remains a sensitive period given precedent, including the April 2025 Strait Thunder exercises. Recent reporting reinforces this pattern, with China reserving offshore airspace over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 27 March to 6 May, an established precursor to large-scale drills and a signal of sustained operational activity. Taken together, this points to a high-probability window for renewed PLA operations in early April, likely involving coordinated air–sea manoeuvres, rapid mobilisation timelines, and blockade-oriented rehearsals rather than purely symbolic signalling.

7-12 April: KMT’s chair Cheng Li-wun meeting with Xi Jinping, Bejing, China

KMT chair Cheng Li-wun’s planned Beijing visit, including a meeting with Xi Jinping, highlights Beijing’s preference to pursue unification through political engagement with Taiwan’s opposition rather than its government. For the KMT, it is a bid to signal relevance and competence on cross-strait ties. The result is greater politicisation of cross-strait policy ahead of upcoming elections.

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China?

A summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has shifted from an earlier tentative window of 31 March to 2 April to possible dates of 14-15 May, though it remains highly fluid. Recent signals from Trump indicate the meeting is being treated as leverage, with expectations that Beijing could offer concessions, including playing a role in stabilising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Taiwan to strengthen Pratas islands’ defences as China steps up pressure
Reuters
Taiwan will strengthen its defences of the ​Pratas as China steps up its activities around the islands which lie at the top ‌end of the South China Sea, the minister in charge of Taiwan’s coastguard said on 2 April. Lying roughly between southern Taiwan and Hong Kong, the Pratas are seen by some security experts as vulnerable to Chinese attack due to their distance - more ​than 400 km (250 miles) - from mainland Taiwan.

How China uses commercial ships to pressure Taiwan without firing a shot
ABC News
When many people think about a potential conflict over Taiwan, missiles, fighter jets and warships come to mind. But a growing body of research suggests Beijing’s preparations are looking far more ordinary: fishing boats, car ferries and commercial barges … Naval analysts reviewing imagery in 2024 and 2025 identified barges equipped with extendable causeways, temporary pier-like structures capable of stretching from ship to shore. They assessed that these platforms could allow vehicles to disembark without relying on intact port facilities. Many Taiwan contingency scenarios examined in US war games assume that major ports would be contested or damaged in the early stages of a conflict.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Economic boycott campaigns

Mainland slams Taiwan’s ‘decoupling’ attempts
Xinhua
A Chinese mainland spokeswoman on 1 April severely criticized Taiwan authorities’ bid to decouple from the mainland in its industrial and supply chain development. Zhang Han, a spokeswoman for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remarks at a press conference in response to a media query about recent statements by Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te, who promoted supply chain cooperation among “like-minded” partners to reduce the island’s reliance on the mainland and secure its “competitive advantage” in the future.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Taiwan compatriots travel to Fujian during Qingming to trace their roots and enjoy spring outings [台胞清明寻根踏青到福建]
Xinhua
On the morning of 3 April, the “Bafang” ferry on the Quanzhou–Kinmen “mini three links” passenger route slowly docked at the Quanjin passenger terminal in Nan’an, Fujian. Jiang Weiwen from Taoyuan, Taiwan, saw a prominent banner upon disembarking reading “Qingming root-seeking · shared cross-strait origins” … Across Fujian, similar activities were held for Taiwanese visitors during Qingming. In Fuzhou’s Fuqing railway station, a themed event titled “Talking about surnames, passing on Chinese sentiment” transformed the waiting hall into a “cultural hub” linking homeland and diaspora.

CCP hijacks Tomb Sweeping with propaganda
Taipei Times
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) using the Tomb-Sweeping Festival with a public ceremony to honor the Yellow Emperor is a “united front” activity, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said 5 April. The ceremony was held by China’s United Front Work Department in Shaanxi Province yesterday, and former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) acting chairperson Lin Jung-tzer was invited to present a flower basket. The Yellow Emperor is said to be the first ancestor of the Chinese nation and the founder of Chinese civilization.

• Taiwan people retrace roots on mainland on tomb-sweeping festival. CCTV English

Universities neglect to warn students of China danger: MOE
Taipei Times
More than 6,000 Taiwanese students have participated in exchange programs in China over the past two years, despite the Mainland Affairs Council’s (MAC) “orange light” travel advisory, government records showed. The MAC’s publicly available registry showed that Taiwanese college and university students who went on exchange programs across the Strait numbered 3,592 and 2,966 people respectively. The National Immigration Agency data revealed that 2,296 and 2,551 Chinese students visited Taiwan for study in the same two years.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

Taiwan’s Kuomintang leader to visit mainland China to aid ‘peaceful’ relations: Beijing
South China Morning Post
Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), will lead a delegation to mainland China next month at the invitation of Beijing, her first visit since assuming the position in November. Song Tao, head of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Monday that the Communist Party Central Committee and Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party Central Committee, would welcome her visit to Jiangsu province, Shanghai and Beijing from April 7 to 12 to “promote the peaceful development of relations between the Communist Party and Kuomintang as well as across the Taiwan Strait”, according to Xinhua.

• KMT defends chair’s China visit. Taipei Times

• Taiwan Affairs Office says Cheng Li-wen’s visit to China is a “family matter”; MAC: politicising cross-strait issues as domestic affairs [國台辦稱鄭麗文訪中屬家事 陸委會：操作兩岸內政化]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

• China’s Taiwan region residents welcome KMT chairperson’s mainland visit. CGTN

• No more ‘cold peace’ across Taiwan Strait: former KMT chairwoman calls to rebuild trust. South China Morning Post

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

South Korea to delete e-arrival card fields to solve ‘China, Taiwan’ dispute
Taiwan News
South Korea will remove country-related fields from its electronic arrival card form, defusing a dispute over labeling Taiwan as part of China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced reciprocal measures if Seoul did not correct its designation of Taiwan as “China (Taiwan)” by Tuesday. A South Korean foreign ministry official said on Tuesday that authorities plan to remove the “previous departure place” and “next destination” fields from the form, per Yonhap News Agency.

• Taiwan puts retaliatory measures on hold as South Korea revises e-arrival card system. Radio Taiwan International

Film “Girls’ Chorus” labelled “Taiwan, China”; TAO says wording is appropriate [陽光女子合唱團被標註中國台灣 國台辦宣稱符合表述]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Promotional materials for the film Girls’ Chorus (Sunshine Girls’ Choir) have sparked controversy after referring to Taiwan as “Taiwan, China” (China Taiwan region) ahead of its entry into the Chinese market. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhang Han said 1 April that the labelling is “normal and reasonable,” conforms to the “One China” principle, and that authorities will safeguard the “legitimate rights and interests” of Taiwanese businesses … Taiwan’s Minister of Culture, Li Yuan, said 31 March that China leverages the size of its market to influence Taiwanese films, effectively conducting United Front work. “We must remain especially united,” he said, adding that he would convene industry stakeholders with experience in the Chinese market to discuss how to respond.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Energy shortage no longer a worry for Taiwan compatriots after peaceful reunification: spokesperson
CGTN
Compatriots in Taiwan will no longer need to worry about shortages of energy and other supplies after peaceful reunification, a mainland spokesperson said on 1 April. Zhang Han, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the comments at a regular press conference in response to a media query about tight oil supply and possible drug shortages in Taiwan due to the conflict in the Middle East. After reunification, the mainland can provide timely guarantees for Taiwan’s energy and resource security, industrial production, and material supplies regardless of external volatility, Zhang told reporters.

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s military or defence industry

Taiwan’s Line users report compromised accounts
Taiwan News
Line, a popular messaging app in Taiwan, is investigating reports of users being unexpectedly logged out and unable to regain access after their accounts were compromised on 31 March. Affected users said attempts to log back in returned a message stating no authentication information could be found. They were instructed to select “delete” to clear all Line data from their devices, according to CNA. Users said they had not clicked on any suspicious links or shared their verification codes. Concerns were raised over linked financial services, including Line Pay and Line Bank.

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure

Taiwan probes suspected damage to Matsu subsea cable by Chinese vessel
Focus Taiwan
A Chinese-flagged work barge is suspected of damaging a subsea telecommunications cable off Dongyin, part of the Taiwan-governed Matsu Islands, during a salvage operation, with the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) bringing the vessel’s captain in for questioning, authorities said 1 April. The vessel, Hai Hong Gong 66, was conducting operations late on March 30 to remove a stranded Chinese fishing boat, Min Lian Yu 63896, when it allegedly caused partial damage to core wires in the Taiwan-Matsu Subsea Cable No. 3, according to the CGA’s Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu Branch.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Playing with fire on Taiwan question comes at cost for Japan
Xinhua
The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on 30 March countermeasures against Keiji Furuya, a member of Japan’s House of Representatives, for his egregious moves, including collusion with “Taiwan independence” separatist forces for provocative moves. The countermeasures are just acts based on Chinese law, aimed at safeguarding national interests, and in line with international norms. More importantly, they are a firm and forceful response to the wanton provocations and reckless actions of the Japanese side.

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

Penghu-registered fishing vessel “Da Jin Man No. 8” reported missing; Mainland Affairs Council: contact made with China but no response [大進滿8號傳失聯 陸委會：已聯繫陸方但無回應]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
The Penghu-registered fishing vessel Da Jin Man No. 8 has been reported missing, and is suspected to have been detained by Chinese authorities for allegedly selling fuel illegally to Chinese fishing boats. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said on 2 April it has used established communication mechanisms to request an explanation of the incident and the reasons for the detention, but has received no response. According to the MAC, the individuals involved are currently under interrogation.

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

CCP intensifying cross-border aggression: report
Taipei Times
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is enhancing its “push and pull” strategy against Taiwan, using transnational repression to “punish” Taiwanese independence advocates and promoting a “Taiwan Retrocession Day” to mislead countries about Taiwan’s status, a National Security Bureau (NSB) report said … Through transnational repression, the CCP seeks to incite panic and division within Taiwan, and create a false impression of Chinese “governance” over Taiwan to undermine its national sovereignty, it said. The CCP’s “punishment” methods for Taiwanese independence advocates include establishing a reporting mechanism, offering bounties and issuing “wanted” notices for certain Taiwanese, the bureau said.

Mainland Affairs Office threatens to punish prosecutors in Xu Chunying case; MAC: intimidation is becoming the norm [國台辦揚言懲治徐春鶯案檢察官 陸委會：恐嚇成常態]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) has threatened to punish the prosecutors handling the Xu Chunying case. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said 2 April that the Chinese Communist Party’s targeting of judicial personnel has become routine. “Whoever they want to protect, they will punish the prosecutors handling the case,” it said, calling on opposition parties to respond and not to acquiesce in Beijing’s intimidation of Taiwan’s judiciary … TAO spokesperson Zhang Han said, in relation to the case of Chinese spouse Xu Chunying, that “the Xu Chunying case is yet another example of the DPP authorities’ judicial persecution of mainland spouses,” and that “we will punish in accordance with the law those thugs and accomplices who investigate and adjudicate such cases and carry out judicial persecution of mainland spouses, and pursue responsibility for life.”

ASPI Comment: The Xu Chunying case involves a China-born spouse in Taiwan under investigation for suspected links to United Front activity and possible violations of Taiwan’s national security laws. Taipei treats it as a routine counter-interference case, while Beijing has framed it as “judicial persecution” and escalated tensions by threatening to punish the Taiwanese prosecutors involved.

Regulatory changes to incentivise cross-strait integration on Beijing’s terms

Taiwan Affairs Office: Cross-Strait integrated development demonstration zone achieves phased progress [国台办：两岸融合发展示范区建设取得阶段性进展]
Xinhua
At a regular press conference on 1 April, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that since the release of the Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Supporting Fujian in Exploring a New Path for Cross-Strait Integrated Development and Building a Demonstration Zone, relevant central departments and Fujian Province have actively implemented the policy through strengthened policy support and institutional innovation … Zhang added that during the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan period, the Taiwan Affairs Office and the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to implement Xi Jinping’s important directives on Taiwan work and the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era. Efforts will focus on promoting integration through connectivity, benefits, and emotional ties, with stronger measures and higher standards to advance the demonstration zone and support Fujian in making further progress in cross-strait integration.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 17 March 2026 to 24 March 2026.

ASPI Comment: State of the Strait will shut down over the Easter period and return on Wednesday 8 April.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

The Trump–Xi summit, originally scheduled for 31 March to 2 April in Beijing, now looks likely to be delayed. In a recent interview, Donald Trump signalled he could postpone the meeting unless China helps address the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He appeared to reinforce that position shortly after, indicating the summit could slip by “a month or so,” though no formal rescheduling has been confirmed.

That uncertainty is telling. It reflects not just scheduling friction, but shifting US strategic priorities. The war in Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz are absorbing senior-level attention, driving military redeployments, and reshaping near-term risk calculations. Reports of high-demand assets, including missile defence systems such as THAAD, being redirected toward the Middle East reinforce the perception that Washington’s immediate focus lies outside the Indo-Pacific. For Taiwan, the optics are bad. Even if US policy has not changed, the visible redistribution of attention and capability raises questions about prioritisation, timing, and the credibility of surge capacity in a crisis.

If and when the summit does occur, Taiwan will be the most sensitive issue from Beijing’s perspective. However, a Trump–Xi meeting is unlikely to produce any substantive shift in Beijing’s favour. The most probable outcome is a temporary stabilisation, in which Taiwan is carefully managed for optics and timing rather than directly addressed.

This aligns with the broader trajectory of the summit itself. Even if delayed, it reflects tactical disruption rather than strategic rupture. Both the United States and China are still pursuing trade and investment deliverables, and neither wants a complete breakdown. That same logic applies to Taiwan. The objective is not compromise, but control, preventing the issue of Taiwan from derailing a meeting designed to put a floor under the bilateral relationship.

In practical terms, Washington is likely to avoid major Taiwan-related announcements, particularly large arms packages, ahead of the summit. Beijing, in turn, is likely to moderate the most visible forms of military pressure, including large-scale air activity, while maintaining its lower-level, multi-domain coercion. The recent lull in PLA air incursions may reflect this kind of calibrated restraint rather than any substantive de-escalation.

The most likely scenario over the coming weeks is that both sides suppress the most provocative moves ahead of the summit, keep Taiwan out of the headlines during the meeting, and then revert to baseline competition afterwards. This fits with expectations of a broader outcome: a managed trade stabilisation package, new mechanisms to compartmentalise disputes, and a political reset that signals stability without resolving underlying rivalry.

31 March to 2 April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China?

A summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has been tentatively discussed for 31 March to 2 April 2026 in Beijing, but remains unconfirmed and fluid. Recent signals from Trump suggest the meeting could be delayed or leveraged for concessions, including calls for China to play a role in stabilising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Late March: US arms deal signing deadline

Taiwan’s legislature has authorised US$9 billion in US arms purchases, but contracts must be signed before late March deadlines or risk delays. This creates a near-term test of Taipei’s procurement credibility and political cohesion, while signalling to both Washington and Beijing the seriousness of Taiwan’s defence posture.

Early April: Likely PLA spring exercise window

Historically, major drills cluster around political triggers. April is particularly sensitive given precedent, suggesting a high-probability window for renewed PLA activity, including joint operations and blockade-style rehearsals.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

US shift prompted Beijing to restart pressure: official
Taipei Times
Changes in the US military’s focus likely prompted the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to resume frequent activity in the Taiwan Strait, following a lull of two weeks, a national security official said 20 March on condition of anonymity. The lull in Chinese military aircraft activity near Taiwan was intended to project a more conciliatory posture ahead of a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the aim of discouraging Washington from selling arms to Taiwan, the official said. Trump and Xi were expected to meet this month, but those plans are likely to be postponed.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

The fifth cross-Strait youth folk belief heritage walking study and ancestral tracing journey launches in Fuzhou [第五届两岸青年信俗渊源徒步研学寻根之旅在福州启动]
Xinhua
The event titled “Gathering in Fuzhou, Tides Rising Across Mountains and Seas — The Fifth Cross-Strait Youth Folk Belief Heritage Walking Study and Ancestral Tracing Journey” officially commenced on 20 March in Fuzhou, Fujian Province, attracting more than 100 young participants from both sides of the Taiwan Strait … The event featured folk performances, exchanges of symbolic items between participants from both sides, and tea culture activities blending Fujian and Taiwan traditions, allowing young people to begin their cross-strait “ancestral tracing” journey amid the city’s everyday cultural atmosphere and folk belief practices.

Taiwan delegates contribute to key proposals
China Daily
At China’s top annual political gathering in March, national lawmakers and political advisers, originally from Taiwan, raised proposals not only on issues directly affecting Taiwan compatriots and businesses in the Chinese mainland, but also on the mainland’s economic development planning and ecological governance … At present, the NPC has 13 deputies from its Taiwan delegation. The CPPCC National Committee members from Taiwan mainly come from the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League, a non-Communist political party, and the All-China Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, a social organization, totaling 34.

Deputies from the Taiwan delegation attending the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing on 8 March (via China Daily).

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

Chinese database for spying on Taiwanese leaked
Taipei Times
China has developed a network-mapping project targeting political figures and parties in Taiwan to monitor public opinion during elections and to craft tailored influence campaigns aimed at dividing Taiwanese society, according to documents leaked by Chinese technology firm GoLaxy. The documents, collected by Taipei-based Doublethink Lab, showed a database was specifically created to gather detailed information on Taiwanese political figures, including their political affiliations, job histories, birthplaces, residences, education, religion and a brief biography about them.

• The rise of AI in PRC influence operations: nine takeaways from the GoLaxy documents. Doublethink Lab

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

Mainland criticizes Taiwan’s renaming of cultural association as “de-Sinicization”
China Daily
A Chinese mainland spokesman on Wednesday voiced firm opposition to the Democratic Progressive Party authorities over the renaming of Taiwan’s “General Association of Chinese Culture”, calling the move an act of “de-Sinicization” aimed at advancing separatist agendas … He warned that any attempt to use a name change as a pretext to pursue “Taiwan independence” and sever the nation’s cultural roots runs counter to the course of history, harms national sentiment, and will be firmly opposed by all Chinese people. “Such efforts are doomed to fail,” he added.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Taiwan gives South Korea deadline to rectify arrival card label
Taiwan News
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Wednesday that if South Korea does not respond by March 31 regarding the mislabeling of Taiwan on its electronic arrival card, Taipei may take reciprocal measures. The ministry said South Korea’s electronic arrival card continues to incorrectly list Taiwan as “China (Taiwan),” per CNA. It said that, under the principle of reciprocity, Taiwan has already changed the designation of “Republic of Korea” to “South Korea” on its Alien Resident Certificate as of 1 March.

• Taiwan retaliates against South Korea over dropdown menu slight. Focus Taiwan

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

China makes energy security ‘reunification’ offer to Taiwan amid Middle East war
CNA
China offered on 18 March what it said would be energy stability to Taiwan if it agreed to Beijing’s rule, part of a campaign by China to convince the island of the benefits of “reunification”, which it has long rejected … Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told reporters in Beijing that “peaceful reunification” would bring better protection of Taiwan’s energy and resource security with a “strong motherland” as its backing.

• Mainland China says Taiwan can ease Iran energy supply anxiety with peaceful reunification. South China Morning Post

Resolving Taiwan question is matter for Chinese: spokesperson
Xinhua
aiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, the Taiwan question is purely China’s internal affair, and resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on 20 March. Lin made the remarks at a regular press briefing in response to a question about the Japanese prime minister and the U.S. president in their meeting underlining the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

FM blasts Taiwan leader Lai’s claim that Japanese colonization was for the ‘Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere’
Global Times
When asked to comment on Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te’s recent claims that Japan’s colonization of Taiwan was intended to promote the so-called “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere,” sparking discontent on the island, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on 18 March that the Lai authorities have openly used the lies of invaders to whitewash Japan’s colonial rule over the Taiwan region, and this is a grave blasphemy against history and a shameful betrayal of the nation.

ASPI Comment: Lai Ching-te’s speech marking the anniversary of Taiwan’s first direct presidential election stressed that sovereignty rests with the people, reaffirming Taiwan’s democratic legitimacy and existing status as a self-governing entity without declaring independence. Beijing’s sharp response reflects the implication of this framing, that Taiwan’s status is not already settled, which directly challenges the PRC’s “one China” claim. Beijing’s reference to the “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” further seeks to delegitimise this position by casting Taiwan’s democracy as a legacy of Japanese imperial influence and foreign interference, rather than a legitimate expression of popular will.

No incidents to report this week.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Press freedom under Chinese scrutiny in Denmark
Reporters Without Borders
After Berlingske covered a military parade in Beijing on 3 September 2025, the Chinese Embassy in Denmark sent a letter to the outlet expressing its dissatisfaction. The letter principally took issue with articles that touched on Chinese efforts to change Western countries’ interpretations of the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971, which transferred the “China” seat at the United Nations from the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China. It diminished a piece by Andreas Bøje Forsby, a China foreign policy researcher at the Danish Centre for International Studies and Human Rights, which suggested that China’s military modernisation may be aimed at “reunifying” Taiwan with China, as making “groundless and malicious speculations.” It also condemned criticism of the One China principle, which asserts that Taiwan is part of China.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China firmly rejects reported large US arms sales to Taiwan; expert accuses separatists of disregarding livelihoods and stoking hype to disrupt regional security
Global Times
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson condemned US arms sales to the Taiwan region at a press conference on 18 March, stressing China’s firm and consistent opposition to arms sales by relevant countries to the Taiwan region. Meanwhile, media reported Taiwan regional authorities claimed a new major US arms package is proceeding as scheduled under congressional review, renewing controversy and skepticism on the island.

Why Beijing has struggled to rally Asia against Japan over Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks
South China Morning Post
In addition to rolling out more trade restrictions and travel advisories targeting Tokyo, Beijing has sought to rally support from the international community, particularly Asia-Pacific neighbours, in its criticism of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks in early November regarding a Taiwan contingency. As for Japan, it has doubled down on bolstering its alignment with “like-minded” countries amid an absence of significant diplomatic backing from the United States, its most important ally. Notably, Beijing has struggled to galvanise opposition to Tokyo.

• Takaichi’s Taiwan comments were ‘significant shift’: US intel agency. Nikkei Asia

• Taiwan welcomes call by Australia and New Zealand for Taiwan Strait peace. Taiwan News

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

US mission to UN backs Taiwan’s participation
Taipei Times
Supporting Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations remains a key part of the US Mission to the UN, US Representative to the UN Mike Waltz said on 20 March. He also reiterated the US’ opposition to China’s distortion of UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, saying it was an attempt to isolate Taiwan from the international community. Waltz made the remarks at a hearing titled “Oversight Field Hearing - Accountability and Reform at the UN,” held by the US House of Representatives’ Subcommittee on National Security, Department of State and Related Programs.

Misrepresenting international laws and conventions

Mainland facilitates 93 Taiwan compatriots stranded in Middle East to return home via Shanghai
China Daily
A mainland spokesman said China always cares about the safety of Chinese citizens overseas, noting that China’s diplomatic missions helped 93 Taiwan compatriots stranded in the Middle East return home via mainland flights. The Chinese Consulate General in Istanbul assisted Taiwan compatriots stranded in the Middle East in transferring to mainland flights and returning to Taiwan via Shanghai, Chen Binhua, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said at a regular press briefing on 18 March.

ASPI Comment: By declaring Taiwanese nationals as PRC citizens under its domestic law, Beijing seeks to normalise extraterritorial authority (e.g. over travel, law enforcement, or punishment), pre-empt Taiwan’s separate legal identity, and recast a disputed sovereignty issue as an internal legal matter. This creates a narrative that Taiwan is already under PRC jurisdiction, even though this is not recognised in international law or accepted by Taiwan’s population.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 10 March 2026 to 17 March 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

The war with Iran is a reminder that Taiwan does not need to be the battlefield to feel the effects of conflict. For a trading island dependent on energy imports and global shipping lanes, distant wars can quickly become domestic problems.

For Taipei, the conflict is therefore less about military involvement and more about managing risk. Oil markets, maritime chokepoints and the distribution of U.S. military attention are all variables that connect the Middle East crisis to Taiwan’s own security environment, and hint at the economic shockwaves a Taiwan Strait crisis could produce.

Government response and the question of legality

After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, President Lai Ching-te said he had instructed the government to “closely monitor regional developments and take all necessary precautionary measures.”

Taipei stopped short of explicitly commenting on the legality of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, instead framing its position around the importance of preventing further escalation and protecting global energy flows. Officials initially focused on stability and restraint rather than explicit political endorsement of the strikes.

This careful positioning reflects Taiwan’s broader diplomatic approach. While Taipei benefits from strong U.S. security support, it also avoids taking unnecessarily explicit positions on conflicts that do not directly involve it.

At the same time, the Taiwanese government instructed ministries and state-owned energy firms to monitor fuel markets closely, stabilise prices where possible and prepare contingency plans.

Energy security: a vulnerability exposed before the war

The Iran conflict has highlighted one of Taiwan’s most persistent strategic vulnerabilities: energy security.

Taiwan imports roughly 97 percent of its energy, leaving it almost entirely dependent on maritime supply routes. The Middle East plays a significant role in that system. Around 61 percent of Taiwan’s crude oil and nearly one-third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) originate from Gulf producers, much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, these vulnerabilities long predate the war with Iran. Taiwan has struggled for years to balance energy security, decarbonisation and domestic political debates over nuclear power. The phase-out of nuclear generation has increased reliance on imported LNG, which in turn requires a steady flow of tankers and limited domestic storage capacity.

Taiwan’s strategic fuel reserves provide only partial protection. Oil reserves can cover roughly three months of consumption, but coal and natural-gas reserves are far thinner. LNG storage capacity in particular is limited, leaving Taiwan exposed to even short-term shipping disruptions.

Supply chains and the technology sector

Beyond energy, the conflict’s economic ripple effects matter for Taiwan’s export-driven economy. Taiwanese technology firms have so far reported limited direct disruption, but rising oil prices and transport costs remain a concern.

Companies have responded cautiously by increasing inventories of critical materials and reviewing logistics planning. These steps reflect lessons learned from earlier global disruptions, from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when supply chain resilience became a strategic priority for Taiwan’s government and major firms.

Strategic implications for Taiwan’s security environment

The war also carries indirect geopolitical implications. One concern in Taipei is that a prolonged Middle East conflict could divert U.S. military attention and resources away from the Indo-Pacific. If high-demand assets are tied down elsewhere, Beijing might perceive a temporary window of strategic opportunity.

Just as important is perception. Beijing closely monitors the distribution of U.S. attention and resources across theatres. If China’s leadership judged that Washington was strategically distracted or overstretched, it might see greater opportunity to intensify pressure on Taiwan through military exercises or other coercive measures.

Lessons for a Taiwan Strait crisis

The war with Iran also offers a glimpse of how a Taiwan Strait crisis might unfold economically and strategically:

• First, energy shocks could be immediate and severe. Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported fuel means that a Taiwan Strait conflict could rapidly disrupt maritime insurance and key shipping lanes, potentially choking off energy supplies within days and triggering widespread economic and industrial disruption.

• Second, global supply chains could fracture quickly. Rather than gradually adjusting logistics, companies might abruptly halt shipments through the Taiwan Strait, suspend production linked to Taiwanese components and accelerate the relocation of manufacturing elsewhere, amplifying economic shock both in Taiwan and across the global technology sector.

• Finally, the crisis could stretch U.S. and allied strategic bandwidth to its limits. If Washington were simultaneously managing conflicts in multiple regions, any perception of delay, hesitation or resource constraints could embolden Beijing to escalate pressure while forcing Taipei to confront the possibility of facing the early stages of a crisis with uncertain external support.

For Taiwan, distant wars are exposing the structural vulnerabilities of an island economy dependent on energy imports, maritime trade and external security guarantees.

31 March to 2 April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China?

Scheduled for 31 March to 2 April 2026 in Beijing, the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will take place against a backdrop of war in the Middle East, rising trade tensions and intensifying strategic competition — though Trump has now signalled that he may delay the summit unless China agrees to help open the Strait of Hormuz.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan reports large-scale Chinese military aircraft presence near island
POLITICO
Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defense ministry said 16 March, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers. The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported.

ASPI Comment: While described as “large-scale,” this characterisation is relative to the unusually low levels of PLA air activity recorded in the preceding days. In absolute terms, 26 aircraft is not an especially high number. At least six days in 2026 have already recorded 26 PLA sorties or more around Taiwan.

China’s ‘hidden’ military spending a grave threat
Taipei Times
China’s “hidden” military spending is a grave threat to Taiwan’s national security that could trigger an arms race in the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwanese researchers said on 12 March. They made the remarks during a symposium hosted by Secure Taiwan Associate Corp on the annual budget of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. The 7 percent growth in military spending announced by Beijing last week is deceptively low, the researchers said.

Thousands of Chinese boats mass at sea, raising questions
AFP
Thousands of Chinese fishing boats have been massing in geometric formations in the East China Sea, in coordinated actions that experts believe are part of Beijing’s preparations for a potential regional crisis or conflict. Monitoring ship-tracking data on Christmas Day, Jason Wang could tell something “unusual” was underway as fishing boats swarmed into two parallel inverted Ls, each about 400 kilometres (about 250 miles) long … Some experts said the only plausible explanation was that China was testing its ability to marshal a large number of fishing vessels that could potentially be deployed in a military operation, such as a blockade or invasion of Taiwan, or a crisis with Japan.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

CPPCC Member Chen Xingying, speaking on behalf of the Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang: “Taiwan independence” leads only to a dead end; reunification is the correct path [全国政协委员陈星莺代表民革中央发言：“台独”必是绝路　统一方为正道]
Xinhua
Chen Xingying, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), delivered a speech on behalf of the Central Committee of the Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang at the third plenary meeting of the fourth session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee on 8 March. Chen said that “Taiwan independence” forces are unequivocally “destroyers of peace,” “manufacturers of crises,” and “instigators of war,” and must be treated with high vigilance by compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

ASPI Comment: The Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang is one of the small “democratic parties” that operate under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party in the political system of the People’s Republic of China. It was founded in 1948 by members of the Kuomintang who split from Chiang Kai-shek and sided with the Communists during the Chinese Civil War. Despite its name, it has no organisational link to the KMT in Taiwan today; instead it functions within Beijing’s United Front system and often promotes narratives supportive of cross-strait reunification.

Espionage

Prison term upheld for NSB officer who leaked information
Focus Taiwan
The Supreme Court has upheld a four-year prison sentence for a former National Security Bureau (NSB) officer who was found guilty of leaking classified information while seeking a teaching job in China. The ruling, issued on 11 March, upheld lower court sentences after finding no legal errors in their judgments against Peng Shun-fu. It is final and cannot be appealed. Peng, who served as an intelligence officer in the Taiwanese agency from 1995 until leaving active service in 2006, posted details of his background and research from his time at the bureau on an academic recruitment website supervised by China’s Ministry of Education in May 2018, according to court rulings.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

Chinese military spokesperson says ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead end
CGTN
Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for the Chinese People's Liberation Army and Armed Police Force delegation to the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress, says "Taiwan independence" is a dead end that runs against the tide of reunification. This year's Government Work Report says China will resolutely fight against separatist forces aimed at "Taiwan independence," and oppose external interference.

Taiwan Affairs Office: Figures like Lai Ching-te should not miscalculate—if they recklessly take risks, they will bring about their own destruction [国台办：赖清德之流莫要打错算盘 胆敢铤而走险必将自取灭亡]
Xinhua
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office, responded on 14 March to remarks made by Lai Ching-te earlier that day at a symposium marking 30 years since the introduction of direct elections for Taiwan’s regional leader … Chen pointed out that Lai used the so-called “direct-election democracy” as justification for Taiwan’s purported “statehood,” which he said does not exist. According to Chen, Lai fabricated claims about a “Chinese threat to Taiwan,” hyped up calls to “defend sovereignty,” and constructed a false narrative of “democracy versus authoritarianism,” all in order to incite confrontation across the Strait.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Man kicked out of Sydney stadium for leading Taiwan chant
Sky News Australia
Sky News has obtained exclusive footage of a delegate of the Taiwan women’s national team being removed from a stadium in Sydney after being accused of leading “political chants”. The chants contained the phrase “team Taiwan”, which led to security kicking the man out of the stadium at halftime. Taiwanese fan Grace Hu witnessed the ordeal and said she was “devastated”.

• Former Taiwan men’s coach kicked out of Women’s Asian Cup match for ‘political chants’. The Guardian

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taipei warns of cognitive warfare as China offers to evacuate Taiwanese from Middle East
The Strait Times
The group of Taiwanese travellers looked weary but relieved after their flight from Istanbul landed safely in Shanghai … These were scenes from a 10 March news report by Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV), which said Beijing had assisted more than 70 Taiwanese on group tours to return home after they had been “stranded in the Middle East” amid the US-Israeli war with Iran … But Taipei officials have warned that the narrative may be part of Beijing’s cognitive warfare strategy to diminish the island’s sovereignty while eroding public trust in the Taiwanese government.

MOFA blasts ‘no sovereignty’ remark
Taipei Times
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) on 15 March said societies that cannot choose their own leaders still hope to have direct elections one day, and that China has no say on Taiwanese sovereignty. The statements were made in response to China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Chen Binhu’s remarks on 14 March that “Taiwan’s so-called ‘sovereignty’ is non-existent as it is part of China, and has never been and will never become a country.” “No matter how the Taiwan area holds elections or who is elected, it does not change its status as part of China,” he said, adding that President William Lai cannot change the fundamental structure of cross-strait relations, nor stop China from achieving unification.

“Taiwan independence” separatist activities and political manipulation are doomed to be futile [“台独”分裂活动和政治操弄注定徒劳无功]
Xinhua
The so-called “friendship” mission is merely an excuse used by the DPP authorities to pursue “independence by relying on external forces.” The One China principle is a basic norm of international relations and a broad consensus of the international community, and it forms the political foundation for China’s relations with the 183 countries that have established diplomatic ties with it. We hope the relevant countries in the region will follow the tide of history and the trend of the times, and make the correct choice at an early date, one that truly accords with the fundamental and long-term interests of their own peoples. We also warn the DPP authorities that any form of “Taiwan independence” separatist activity or political manipulation cannot change the fact that Taiwan belongs to China, nor can it alter the international community’s adherence to the One China principle. Such efforts are destined to be futile.

• Taiwan Affairs Office criticises President Lai’s remarks; Mainland Affairs Council says it exposes the CCP’s fear of democracy [V國台辦批賴總統談話　陸委會：暴露中共對民主恐懼]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

How China is wooing Paraguay’s political class away from longtime ally Taiwan
The Japan Times
When Paraguayan opposition lawmaker Leidy Galeano returned from an all-expenses-paid tour of six Chinese cities late last year, she was convinced Paraguay risked missing out on major economic gains by sticking with longtime ally Taiwan over Beijing — a message participants on the trip heard repeatedly from Chinese officials … This trip and others like it, which people familiar with the visits said were at the invitation of the Chinese consulate in Sao Paulo, offered lavish banquets, stays at luxury hotels and tours of the Great Wall, part of what Paraguayan lawmakers said they saw as a coordinated effort to draw the country away from democratically governed Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.

Taiwan evaluates possible Lai trip to Eswatini
Taiwan Times
Taiwan is evaluating the possibility of President Lai Ching-te traveling to its only African ally Eswatini in April, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said 14 March … Lin dispelled concern about China’s stake in plans for a dam in Eswatini, with a contract signed last August. The minister said the project is managed by the World Bank and would not affect Taiwan-Eswatini relations.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Premier Cho defends ‘private’ Japan visit amid WBC controversy
Focus Taiwan
Premier Cho Jung-tai on 13 March dismissed criticism over his recent visit to Japan during the 2026 World Baseball Classic, which was the first trip to Japan by a sitting Taiwanese premier in over half a century. At a press conference in Taipei, Cho presented four invoices totaling about NT$2.2 million (US$68,847) to account for what he described as a “private” trip that he said he paid for himself. The expenses included NT$2.08 million for a charter flight to Tokyo, and Cho presented a receipt showing that he remitted money for the flight in his own name to China Airlines. Cho said his appearance at the Tokyo Dome was aimed at encouraging Taiwanese fans and players, and even though government figures reportedly hinted that Cho met with Japanese officials, he denied it.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Spokesperson: China’s position of opposing US arms sales to Taiwan region is consistent, clear
CGTN
China’s position of firmly opposing the US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region is consistent and clear, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on 13 March. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun told a regular news briefing that the United States should earnestly adhere to the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques, particularly the August 17 Communique, cease arms sales to Taiwan, and take concrete actions to maintain the stable development of China-US relations as well as peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

China tracks US Navy surveillance plane’s flight over Taiwan Strait
Stars and Stripes
A U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft flew over the Taiwan Strait on 11 March, just weeks ahead of an anticipated visit to China by President Donald Trump. The P-8A Poseidon — a long-range aircraft equipped with advanced sensors — flew through international airspace over the 110-mile-wide waterway that separates mainland China from Taiwan, according to the U.S. 7th Fleet. “The aircraft’s transit of the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Cmdr. Matthew Comer, 7th Fleet spokesman, said by email Thursday. “The United States flies, sails and operates anywhere international law allows.”

• PLA tracks, monitors US P-8A patrol aircraft transiting Taiwan Straits. Global Times

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

PRC law to target Taiwanese: Mainland Affairs Council
Taipei Times
Beijing is expected to intensify long-arm jurisdiction and transnational persecution against dissidents in China and abroad after the passage of the Act on the Promotion of Ethnic Unity and Progress at the Chinese National People’s Congress, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said 12 March. The act is essentially a law representing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision about governing different ethnic groups in China, MAC Deputy Minister Liang Wen-chieh told a news conference. “The purpose of the act is to establish what the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] perceives as ‘correct’ views on the nation, history, ethnicity, culture, education and religion,” Liang said. “All ethnic groups in China must have the same views on the nation and Chinese history, meaning that there is only one interpretation of Chinese culture and history.”

• China’s new ethnic unity law could target Taiwanese, Taipei officials warn. Reuters

• Government says law passed by China may threaten Taiwanese. Taiwan News

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 3 March 2026 to 10 March 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

For nine of the past ten days, Taiwan has reported no People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft operating near the island. That absence is unusual and has sparked speculation about possible causes, including a possible tactical pause ahead of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting later this month or a temporary recalibration of operations for diplomatic optics.

But here at ASPI’s State of the Strait, we assess that given the sustained tempo of PLA activity around Taiwan in recent years, the more likely explanation lies in operational or logistical factors rather than a shift in Beijing’s underlying strategy.

Since roughly 2020, near-daily PLA air activity around Taiwan has become a defining feature of Beijing’s military coercion. Fighter aircraft, bombers and surveillance platforms routinely operate near Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), forcing Taiwan to scramble aircraft and normalising China’s military presence in the strait.

Air incursions are generally considered more escalatory and operationally risky than a PLA Navy presence (which has continued during this period) because they involve contested airspace, higher accident risk and direct interception by Taiwan’s air force.

Against that backdrop, such a sustained pause is noticeable. While short fluctuations in activity are common, several consecutive days without aircraft is rare given the operational tempo established in recent years. It is too early to draw firm conclusions, but three explanations appear possible:

Most likely: Fuel conservation amid global energy uncertainty

The most likely explanation may lie in resource management rather than any Taiwan-specific development. The reduction in PLA flights coincides with rising instability in the Middle East following Israeli and American attacks on Iran, and subsequent Iranian retaliations – events that have introduced volatility into global energy markets.

Military aviation is extremely fuel intensive. Sustaining near-daily fighter patrols and bomber sorties over several years consumes significant quantities of aviation fuel. If Chinese leaders assess that global oil supplies could tighten, particularly as conflict disrupts shipping through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, it would be logical to conserve resources where possible.

Routine signalling flights near Taiwan may therefore be one of the easiest activities to temporarily scale back without significantly affecting operational readiness. From this perspective, the pause reflects caution rather than something more dramatic.

Plausible: Preparation for a major military exercise

A second possibility is that the lull reflects preparations for a larger military exercise. These exercises are not only political signalling. They also serve as operational preparation, allowing the PLA to rehearse complex joint operations and test command coordination across services.

Large joint drills require careful preparation. Aircraft may undergo maintenance cycles, units may reposition to forward bases, and operational planning must be synchronised with naval and rocket force components. In previous cases, major exercises around Taiwan have sometimes been preceded by several days of relatively low or even absent PLA aircraft activity as forces prepare.

Temporarily reducing routine sorties could therefore indicate that units are preparing for a more concentrated surge in activity. If this explanation proves correct, the current lull may represent a staging period before another spike in PLA air operations around Taiwan.

Least likely, but possible: Preparation for a quarantine or blockade-style escalation

A third possibility, less likely but strategically significant, is that the pause reflects preparations for a more serious escalation. In recent years, PLA exercises around Taiwan have increasingly rehearsed elements associated with maritime control operations, including encirclement drills, joint air–sea patrols and missile strike simulations.

If Beijing were considering a move to escalate its coercion strategy militarily, such as a limited quarantine or blockade-style operation, it might begin by adjusting routine operational patterns while repositioning forces across the theatre.

There is currently no clear evidence that such a shift is imminent, making this the least likely explanation. However, given the gradual escalation of Chinese military pressure around Taiwan over the past several years, it cannot be entirely ruled out.

Ultimately, the temporary absence of PLA aircraft should not be interpreted as a reduction in Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan. It is more likely a short-term anomaly within a broader pattern of sustained coercion. The more important question is not why the aircraft have disappeared, but what form the next phase of activity will take when they return.

31 March to 2 April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

A White House official confirmed the trip on 20 February, just before the highest U.S. court dealt Trump a stinging defeat by striking down many of the tariffs he has used in a global trade war, including some against rival China.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Li Qiang discusses Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan work in the Government Work Report [李强在政府工作报告中谈港澳台工作]
Xinhua
Li stated that China will thoroughly implement the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era, adhere to the One China principle and the “1992 Consensus,” resolutely crack down on “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, oppose interference by external forces, promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, and advance the cause of national reunification. China will deepen cross-strait exchanges and cooperation and integrated development, jointly inherit and promote Chinese culture, implement policies ensuring that Taiwan compatriots receive equal treatment, enhance the wellbeing of people on both sides of the Strait, and work together to advance the great cause of national rejuvenation.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

China vows resolute fight against “Taiwan independence” separatist forces
Xinhua
China has pledged to resolutely fight separatist forces aimed at “Taiwan independence” and oppose external interference, according to a government work report submitted to the annual session of the National People’s Congress, or the national legislature, which opened on 5 March. The report stressed the need to fully implement the Communist Party of China’s overall policy for the new era on resolving the Taiwan question, reaffirming commitment to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus. China has vowed to promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and advance the cause of national reunification, according to the report.

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

MOFA rejects China’s Taiwan claims
Taipei Times
Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung 8 March rejected Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi’s comments about Taiwan, criticizing China as a “troublemaker” in the international community and a disruptor of cross-strait peace. Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of the Chinese National People’s Congress, Wang said that Taiwan has always been a territory of China and that it would be impossible for it to become its own country. The “return” of Taiwan to China was the natural outcome of the Chinese people’s resistance against Japan in World War II, and that any pursuit of independence was “doomed to fail,” he said, claiming that the Cairo Declaration, Potsdam Declaration, Japanese Instrument of Surrender and UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 determined Taiwan’s status.

• MAC rebuts Wang Yi, says he misquoted historical documents in attempt to eliminate the Republic of China [陸委會駁王毅 錯誤引述歷史文件企圖消滅中華民國]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

South Korean travel system still using ‘China (Taiwan)’
Taipei Times
Taiwanese travelers to South Korea can choose to fill out a paper arrival card instead of using the country’s electronic system, which still uses the name “China (Taiwan),” despite Taipei having requested a correction, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said yesterday. South Korea in February last year launched its e-Arrival Card system, an online entry declaration form for people to complete within three days prior to their entry into the country, which is meant to replace paper arrival cards. However, many Taiwanese have filed complaints to the ministry, saying that the online system lists Taiwan as “China (Taiwan)” in dropdown menus for “place of departure” and “next destination.”

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan never was and never will be a country, says China’s Wang Yi
CNA
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the future of Beijing’s ties with Japan depends on Tokyo’s choices. Relations have been frosty since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan last year. She had suggested that Japan may deploy its military if China attacked the self-ruled island, as that would be a “survival-threatening situation” for Tokyo. Mr Wang also criticised Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s pro-independence rhetoric as the root cause of instability in the strait. He warned that Taiwan never was and will never be a country.

What’s the one big thing missing from Beijing’s Taiwan deterrence strategy?
South China Morning Post
Beijing has built military capacity and strengthened political resolve but needs to project a more credible deterrence as it steps up unification with Taiwan over the next five years, according to a mainland Chinese policy adviser. Li Yihu, dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Peking University, said the reunification process would enter an “accelerated phase” in the next five years and the mainland needed to do more to communicate an understanding of what he said was the inevitability of the process. “Currently, we are doing very well in terms of building the capacity and the resolve to use [military deterrence], but we still need to work on ensuring that … both overt and potential adversaries fully understand the consequences of deterrence and the gains and losses,” he said.

Historical drama popular across Taiwan Strait shows shared aspiration for peace: spokesperson
Xinhua
A Chinese mainland spokesperson on 4 March responded to a media inquiry about the epic historical television series “Swords Into Plowshares,” which has attracted widespread viewership and discussion across the Taiwan Strait, at a regular press conference. The series, whose Chinese title literally translates as “Peaceful Years”, is set during the tumultuous Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period (907-979). At the heart of the story is the King of Wuyue, whose peaceful surrender to the Song Dynasty (960-1279) was a pivotal act that helped reunify China at that time. The drama underscores the enduring conviction of the Chinese nation to oppose division and strive for unity, said Zhang Han, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office.

ASPI Comment: The historical drama highlighted in the article is set during the ‘Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms’ period during a time when Taiwan was inhabited largely by indigenous societies and outside Chinese imperial administration. The Taiwan element therefore comes not from the story itself but from its official interpretation by Beijing, which frames the drama as illustrating the virtues of unity and peaceful reunification. By promoting a mainland historical episode as politically meaningful “across the Strait,” Chinese authorities are using the drama as propaganda to imply a shared historical narrative between China and Taiwan, reinforcing the claim that reunification is historically natural and desirable.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

We hope Taiwan compatriots to clearly understand ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead end: NPC deputy from Taiwan delegation
Global Times
“We hope that the vast number of Taiwan compatriots clearly understand that ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead end, external forces are unreliable, the process of reunification is unstoppable, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities’ attempt to seek independence by relying on external forces is doomed to fail,” said Zeng Liqun, a deputy from the Taiwan delegation to the 14th National People’s Congress and executive director of the national federation of Taiwan compatriots, in an interview with the Global Times on 4 March during the national “two sessions” - the annual meetings of China’s top legislature and top political advisory body.

• Early peaceful reunification is a dream for many of us: Taiwan journalist. Global Times

• NPC deputy refutes ‘Taiwan independence’ narrative as betrayal of history CGTN

No incidents to report this week.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Japan says no contact with Taiwan PM during visit
CNA
Japan said on 9 March that Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai had no contact with government officials during a weekend visit in which he watched a baseball game in Tokyo. Cho’s trip was the first by a sitting Taiwanese premier since 1972, except for a typhoon-enforced stopover by Yu Shyi-kun in 2004, Japan’s foreign ministry told AFP … “The trip was self-funded and it was a private activity. The only arrangement was to cheer for Team Taiwan together with our fellow citizens. There was no other purpose, so there are no further comments,” Cho said.

• Taiwan no. 3 makes first Japan trip since 1972, irking China. Bloomberg

• Cho Jung-tai travels to Japan to watch the WBC; China’s Taiwan Affairs Office criticises Japan and expresses opposition [卓榮泰赴日觀戰WBC 國台辦批評日本並表反對]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

• China lashes out at Japan over Taiwan premier attending WBC game in Tokyo. Japan Today

• Premier Cho’s trip to Japan sparks controversy. Taipei Times

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Wang Yi warns Japan on Taiwan ‘red line’, dashing hopes of ending diplomatic row
South China Morning Post
Beijing’s top diplomat has issued a stark warning against any attempt to thwart reunification with Taiwan and repeated his country’s criticism of Tokyo, dimming hopes that the diplomatic row sparked by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan would come to an end any time soon. The comments by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, delivered in a press conference on Sunday as part of the “two sessions”, were the latest in a series of strong criticisms by Beijing officials following Takaichi’s remarks in November, when she suggested Japan’s military might intervene in the event of a Taiwan conflict.

• ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatism and external interference are doomed to fail. CGTN

• We will never allow any individual or force to separate Taiwan from China: FM on whether China has timetable and roadmap for national reunification. Global Times

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

Taiwan Affairs Office probe of Liu Shyh-fang nephew harms ties: MAC
Taipei Times
A vow by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) to investigate Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang’s nephew is a case of transnational repression and is detrimental to cross-strait interactions, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng said in an interview published yesterday. On 27 February, Hong Kong newspaper Ta Kung Pao reported that Liu had received political donations from her nephew Yen Wen-chun. Yen holds executive positions at three firms in China, the Chinese state-owned publication said.

China severely punishes “Taiwan independence” separatists
Xinhua
China severely punished diehard separatists seeking “Taiwan independence” in 2025 in an effort to safeguard national security, the Supreme People’s Court said 9 March in its work report. The Anti-Secession Law has been effectively enforced in China, according to the report submitted to the ongoing national legislative session for deliberation.

ASPI Comment: For more on Beijing’s increased lawfare efforts against Taiwan in 2025, see ‘An army of lawyers is advancing. Taiwan is the target’ in The Strategist here.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 24 February 2026 to 3 March 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

On 6 March, Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature is scheduled to take up one of the most consequential votes in its recent political history: passage of a multi-year special defence budget worth roughly NT$1.25 trillion (AUD$62 billion). Formally, it is a fiscal decision. Substantively, it will be a test of whether Taiwan’s national security can still command cross-party consensus in an increasingly polarised political environment.

The legislature has agreed to bring the bill forward for review and debate on 6 March after weeks of committee wrangling and delay. Multiple competing proposals are expected to be considered: the government’s original NT$1.25 trillion package; a significantly smaller alternative from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) of around NT$400 billion (AUD$17.9 billion); and a proposal that the Kuomintang (KMT) has indicated it will submit ahead of the vote.

The Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee and the Finance Committee have played central roles in reviewing the bill before it reaches the floor. Lawmakers have agreed not to reopen the scheduling question itself, which had previously been used to push the vote back, but procedural manoeuvring could still slow or fragment final passage. In short, 6 March is on the calendar, yet the path to a decisive outcome remains politically contingent.

The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) argues that the scale and urgency of the package reflect strategic reality. Facing sustained military pressure from Beijing, expanding coercive tactics and rapid PLA modernisation, the DPP contends that Taiwan must accelerate investment in asymmetric capabilities, munitions stockpiles and resilience. For the Lai administration, this is not only about procurement; it is about signalling resolve to both Beijing and Washington.

Defence policy, once relatively insulated from partisan contest, is now fully exposed to it. The opposition’s critique is framed largely in fiscal and institutional terms. The KMT and TPP have questioned the size, sequencing and transparency of the package, arguing for tighter scrutiny, clearer prioritisation and lower aggregate spending. In a fragmented legislature where no party holds a commanding majority, those disagreements have translated into procedural brinkmanship, competing drafts and repeated delay.

Reporting last week that the Trump administration may delay announcing further US arms sales to Taiwan has injected uncertainty into the debate. Although US executive decisions are formally separate from Taiwan’s budget process, perception shapes domestic politics. Opposition figures can point to US hesitation as grounds for caution; the government can argue that precisely such uncertainty makes accelerated self-strengthening more urgent. The result is a feedback loop in which international signalling intensifies domestic polarisation, which in turn complicates Taiwan’s external messaging to both friends and adversaries.

The consequences are not merely symbolic. Major defence procurements depend on predictable, multi-year funding streams. Delays risk slowing procurement timelines, complicating contracting arrangements and potentially weakening deterrent signalling. Deterrence by denial rests not only on platforms and munitions but also on credible political will. Visible domestic polarisation does not negate Taiwan’s capabilities, but it can blur the clarity of collective resolve.

Taiwan’s democracy is functioning; legislative scrutiny and contestation should be viewed as features, not flaws. Yet the 6 March vote has taken on a broader meaning. It asks whether, under intensifying cross-strait pressure, Taiwan’s security can rise above partisan politics – or whether polarisation will become an enduring variable in its deterrence equation.

6 March: Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan votes on Lai’s special defence budget

Taiwan’s parliament will take up its long-stalled US$40 billion special defence budget on 6 March after months of opposition delays. The review follows pressure from US lawmakers and a cross-party agreement to prioritise the bill amid rising tensions with China.

31 March to 2 April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

A White House official confirmed the trip on 20 February, just before the highest U.S. court dealt Trump a stinging defeat by striking down many of the tariffs he has used in a global trade war, including some against rival China.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

What will first Type 055 destroyers for PLA East China Fleet mean for Taiwan?
South China Morning Post
Beijing is expected to intensify naval operations beyond Taiwan and the first island chain, military observers say, citing the possible commissioning of Type 055 “super destroyers” into the East Sea Fleet. Photographs circulating on social media in late January showed two Type 055 guided-missile destroyers moored at a naval base in Zhoushan, located on the East China Sea coast. They had also been assigned hull numbers, 109 and 110, signalling imminent commissioning into the PLA Navy. This indicates that the second batch of the 12,000-tonne-plus vessels has begun to enter service.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Fujian Coast Guard conducts routine law enforcement patrols in waters near Kinmen [福建海警位金门附近海域依法开展常态执法巡查]
Xinhua
Zhu Anqing, spokesperson for the East China Sea Branch of the China Coast Guard, stated that on 25 February, the Fujian Coast Guard conducted routine law enforcement patrols in the waters near Kinmen. Since February, the Fujian Coast Guard has organized naval fleets to continuously strengthen law enforcement patrols in the waters near Kinmen, further enhancing control over the relevant sea areas, effectively safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests and the safety of life and property of Chinese fishermen, including those from Taiwan, and strongly ensuring normal navigation and operational order in the Xiamen-Kinmen waters.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

CPPCC member bridges Taiwan Strait through education and exchanges
CGTN
This year’s session of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opens on 4 March in Beijing, bringing together members from across the country to offer policy suggestions and contribute to national development. In CGTN’s special series “Mission for Millions,” we spotlight Lin Minjie, a CPPCC member dedicated to fostering understanding across the Taiwan Strait. From university campuses to cross-Strait research projects, she is transforming shared history into a platform for dialogue, connection and mutual understanding across generations.

One ‘Intangible Heritage Dragon’ links emotions across the Strait [一条“非遗龙”串起两岸情]
Xinhua
From Lunar New Year’s Eve to the Lantern Festival each year is prime time for dragon dances … “Taiwanese parents, too, hope their children will ‘become dragons’,” Lin observed. In his view, the Chengnan dragon lanterns that have crossed the Strait have grown lighter yet heavier at the same time — lighter in weight, heavier in emotion; simpler in form, deeper in roots — because people on both sides are descendants of the dragon. That sense of shared sentiment is spreading further. Over the past two years, Weng Jinfei, a researcher at the College of Social Sciences at Taiwan’s Chinese Culture University, has also become a Chengnan customer, purchasing more than 120 dragon lanterns, including both traditional dragons and ribbon dragons.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

NSB forms task force to prevent foreign election interference
Taipei Times
[Taiwan’s] National Security Bureau (NSB) has established a task force at President William Lai’s request to prevent foreign interference in the 28 November local elections, the bureau said yesterday. The task force would seek to prevent attempts to manipulate the nine-in-one local elections by outside forces, an NSB statement cited Lai as saying at an event yesterday marking the 71st anniversary of the bureau’s founding and the graduation of new agents. China is expected to use disinformation, fake polls, election gambling, and the lure of tourism and economic exchange to meddle in the elections, he said.

• President Lai inspects the National Security Bureau, instructs that year-end elections must be safeguarded from Chinese interference [賴總統視導國安局　指示確保年底選舉不受中國干擾]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

China working to freeze out support for DPP
Taipei Times
Beijing’s intimidation of Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang and her family aims to dissuade Taiwanese businesspeople from supporting the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in upcoming elections, DPP lawmakers said 1 March. A report published on Friday by state-owned Ta Kung Pao said that Liu had received political donations from her nephew, Yen Wen-chun. Yen holds executive positions at three companies in China, the story said. The report said Liu, whom it described as a supporter of Taiwanese independence, allowed relatives to profit from business in China while discouraging cross-strait relations.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

Purchase of US-made weapons to push Taiwan closer to the peril of war: spokesman
China Daily
A Chinese military spokesman said on 28 February that the purchase of United States-made weapons by Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te and his ilk would only push the island closer to the peril of war. Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang made the remarks at an online news briefing in response to recent media reports that Lai has advocated accelerating the build-up of “asymmetric capabilities” and urged advancing US arms procurement plans and related budget deliberations. Lai claims such moves would be to ensure the security of the island and maintain peace and stability in the “Indo-Pacific”. Zhang said that Lai and his ilk, driven by partisan and personal interests, have recklessly squandered public funds to purchase US-made weapons. “This will only drain Taiwan’s coffers faster, push Taiwan closer to the peril of war and drag the people in Taiwan down into an abyss,” he said.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Osaka event adds ‘Taiwan’ to name after Chinese manipulation
Radion Taiwan International
An event in Osaka will be officially renamed the “Osaka Taiwan Lunar New Year Festival” after Chinese organizers allegedly manipulated their event name to match the Taiwanese one and stole their promotional event photos. Taiwan’s Representative in Japan Li Yi-yang stated that Chinese representatives removed the word “Chinese” from the original “Osaka Chinese Lunar New Year Festival” event name to match the name of the Taiwanese event, “Osaka Lunar New Year Festival,” in an attempt to mislead and confuse the public.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

US tariff ruling and new hikes fuel concerns in Taiwan; DPP authorities under intense backlash for ‘selling out’ island
Global Times
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan island have come under intense public backlash after US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures were ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court and he subsequently announced a new 15-percent tariff hike on imports, sparking growing anxiety on the island over whether the much-touted talks with the US had been “for nothing.” As uncertainty over US tariff policy deepens, Taiwan businesses are increasingly worried about rising costs, shrinking profit margins and potential supply-chain disruptions, with some netizens warning that blindly following Washington could ultimately sell out the island.

Cyber attacks on Taiwanese civil society

Taiwan launches cybersecurity guide for businesses
Taiwan News
The National Institute of Cyber Security released guides Tuesday to help small businesses and non-profits protect against growing cyber threats. The agency said cyberattacks, including those from China, have become more frequent and sophisticated, per CNA. Limited staff and expertise often leave smaller organizations exposed to ransomware and phishing. The series, available for free download, consists of five manuals designed for clarity, practicality and immediate use. Each offers beginner-friendly steps to build basic protection.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Taiwan arms sale approved by Congress is delayed as Trump plans visit to Beijing
The New York Times
The Trump administration has delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at billions of dollars to avoid upsetting Xi Jinping, China’s leader, ahead of President Trump’s planned trip to Beijing in April, U.S. officials said. The weapons sale, which includes air-defense missiles, is in an advanced stage. Senior Republican and Democratic lawmakers approved the package after the State Department sent it to them in January for informal review. However, since then, the sales package has languished in the State Department, the officials said. Administration officials have told some involved in the approval of the sale that the White House ordered agencies not to move forward to ensure that Mr. Trump has a successful summit with Mr. Xi, one official said.

• US administration reportedly delays announcing arms sales to Taiwan; move a slap in face of DPP: expert. Global Times

• Six Assurances essential for Taiwan and US security. Taiwan News

Japan is holding firm against China’s Taiwan bullying
The Spectator
The importance of Taiwan to Japan is hard to overstate. A successful Chinese takeover would mean control of vital shipping routes through which pass essential resources, most significantly LNG (liquified natural gas). Japan, in its post-Fukushima energy posture, relies on LNG for around a third of its needs. Reserves held in storage tanks in supply terminals amount to just over a month’s supply. A Chinese blockade of sea routes around Taiwan could seriously imperil Japanese energy security and thus could plausibly be argued as a ‘life-threatening’ situation.

• Japan to deploy missile systems on island near Taiwan by 2031, defence minister says. ABC News

• Sanae Takaichi’s sinister scheme to meddle in Taiwan Straits is doomed to fail: People’s Daily commentary. Global Times

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Taiwan to join PIF after absence last year: MOFA
Taipei Times
Taiwan is to attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting later this year in Palau, a senior diplomat said 24 February, after it and other nonmembers of the bloc were barred from last year’s meeting. Department of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Director Michael Lin said Taiwan would join the annual summit from Aug. 30 to Sept. 4, after Taiwan’s representatives were prevented from attending last year’s event in the Solomon Islands. He did not say what Taiwan’s participation would entail, but it could involve holding events on the sidelines of the forum, as it had in previous years.

ASPI Comment: For more on Taiwan and other partners not being invited to attend the PIF leaders’ week in 2025, see:

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

Taiwan condemns Beijing over intimidation of interior minister’s nephew
Focus Taiwan
Taipei condemned Beijing on 27 February for intimidating Taiwanese nationals working in China, after Chinese authorities announced an investigation into a nephew of Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang, whom Beijing recently labelled a “separatist.” The Ministry of the Interior strongly denounced what it called coercion by the Chinese Communist Party against Taiwanese officials, spokesperson Maa Shyh-yuan said, calling it an attempt to create a “chilling effect” among public servants. The statement followed a report published Friday by Hong Kong-based outlet Ta Kung Pao, which alleged that Liu had received political donations from her nephew, Yen Wen-chun. Yen reportedly holds executive positions at three companies in China and earns a high salary.

• Mainland calls out hypocrisy of ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists. China Daily

• Mainland reiterates ban on “Taiwan independence” separatists profiting from mainland. Global Times

Using citizenship laws to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan warns nationals nabbed for fraud overseas might be deported to China
Taiwan News
Taiwanese traveling overseas to join fraud rings could end up being deported to China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said 23 February. The ministry has repeatedly warned Taiwanese nationals not to misuse visa waivers for Thailand and South Korea to engage in illegal gambling and online fraud. In addition to being arrested and prosecuted in the country where they were active, they could be sent to China after completing their sentences, the ministry said in a statement. China has signed extradition agreements with 62 countries and judicial cooperation accords with 67. Several countries have notified Chinese embassies or consulates about fraud cases, increasing the risk to Taiwanese detainees.

• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs solemnly urges its citizens not to abuse visa-free access to engage in illegal work overseas, so as to avoid wasting national resources and facing the risk of cross-border deportation [外交部嚴正呼籲國人切勿濫用免簽待遇赴海外從事非法工作，以免耗損國家資源並面臨跨境遣送風險]. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan)

MOFA tells China not to ‘meddle’ in evacuations
Taipei Times
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) on 1 March rebuked a statement by China’s embassy in Israel that it would evacuate Taiwanese holders of Chinese travel documents from Israel amid the latter’s escalating conflict with Iran. Tensions have risen across the Middle East in the wake of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning 28 Febraury. China subsequently issued an evacuation notice for its citizens. In a news release, the Chinese embassy in Israel said holders of “Taiwan compatriot permits” issued to Taiwanese nationals by Chinese authorities for travel to China — could register for evacuation to Egypt.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 17 February 2026 to 24 February 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

On 16 February, President Donald Trump suggested that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan had been discussed with Xi Jinping – a characterisation that immediately fuelled concern that Washington might be edging towards consultation with Beijing on a decision it has long treated as sovereign. There is no evidence that he formally conceded ground on Taiwan weapons sales. However, his framing injected uncertainty into an area where U.S. policy has traditionally been consistent and comparatively insulated from diplomatic trade-offs.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One following a phone call with Xi, Trump said he had been “talking” about arms sales and that a decision would be made soon. The remarks were quickly reported across U.S. and Taiwanese media. Because arms transfers to Taiwan are governed by longstanding statutory and policy frameworks, his phrasing triggered debate about whether the United States was softening its long-standing refusal to involve the People’s Republic of China in such decisions.

Consulting with China could mark a departure from long-standing U.S. policy as articulated in the Six Assurances, first conveyed by the Reagan administration to Taiwan in July 1982 during negotiations over the third U.S.–PRC Joint Communiqué. They were intended to reassure Taipei that improving U.S.–China relations would not come at Taiwan’s expense. The assurances, later declassified and reaffirmed by Congress in 2018, state that the United States:

1. Has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan.

2. Has not agreed to consult with the People’s Republic of China in advance on arms sales to Taiwan.

3. Will not play a mediation role between Taipei and Beijing.

4. Will not revise the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

5. Has not altered its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan.

6. Will not exert pressure on Taiwan to enter negotiations with the PRC.

The second assurance is the most directly implicated. For more than four decades, successive U.S. administrations have maintained that arms sales decisions are made pursuant to the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and U.S. national interests, not subject to Chinese approval or prior consultation. While Beijing routinely protests each package, Washington has been careful not to suggest that such transfers are negotiated with the PRC.

However, it is important to distinguish arms sales from other dimensions of the U.S.–Taiwan relationship. Across multiple administrations, Washington has frequently calibrated diplomatic engagement with Taipei – including high-level visits, trade deals and symbolic gestures – in order to manage broader relations with Beijing. In that sense, aspects of the relationship have at times been subordinated to U.S.–China stabilisation efforts. Defence support, by contrast, has generally rested on a firmer statutory footing under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and has been treated as less negotiable. That is precisely why Trump’s language drew scrutiny: not because U.S.–China bargaining over Taiwan is unprecedented in general, but because arms sales have traditionally been handled with particular discipline.

Subsequent reporting by the Wall Street Journal adds an important layer. The report suggests the administration may be weighing whether to delay or recalibrate a pending arms package in order to manage broader U.S.–China diplomacy. A delay framed as part of stabilising relations with Beijing would not constitute a formal breach of the ‘Six Assurances’ – but it would invite scrutiny over whether even this more solid pillar of the relationship is being tactically sequenced alongside other diplomatic priorities.

So, did Trump cave to Xi? On the available evidence, there has been no formal policy reversal. The White House has reiterated that U.S. policy remains anchored in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Communiqués and the Six Assurances. As of 24 February, there has been no announced cancellation or suspension of arms transfers, nor any indication of a binding commitment to consult Beijing in advance.

The more consequential issue, however, is credibility and deterrence. Publicly describing Taiwan arms sales as something being “talked about” with Xi – and reportedly considering adjustments to their timing in the context of broader bilateral diplomacy – risks conveying that Beijing has at least some influence over U.S. decisions on Taiwan’s defence. Taiwan’s deterrent posture rests not only on the delivery of specific platforms and munitions, but on the perception that U.S. security support is predictable, insulated from Chinese pressure and not contingent on unrelated diplomatic trade-offs. If that perception weakens, even without a formal concession, the strategic effect may still be felt.

Late February: Meeting between leaders of the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party

Throughout late 2025, several media and political commentary pieces referred to plans or speculation about a meeting between new KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping around Lunar New Year.

31 March to 2 April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

A White House official confirmed the trip on 20 February, just before the highest U.S. court dealt Trump a stinging defeat by striking down many of the tariffs he has used in a global trade war, including some against rival China.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Fujian Spring Festival Gala bridges Taiwan Strait and Southeast Asia
China Daily
Under the theme of “Winds Across the Miles, Spring Light We Share”, the 2026 Fujian Spring Festival Gala dazzled audiences on 17 February. For the first time, the gala linked China’s Fujian province, the Taiwan region and Malacca in Malaysia in a tri-location broadcast. The event highlighted Fujian’s core place on the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road and as a model zone for cross-Strait integration, while showcasing the enduring vitality of Chinese culture across oceans and generations. As the “first home” for Taiwan compatriots and businesses on the Chinese mainland, Fujian shares close geographic and ancestral ties with the Taiwan region. As the spiritual homeland for millions of overseas Chinese of Fujian descent, it also maintains long-lasting bonds with Southeast Asia.

ASPI Comment: The China Daily article describes a Spring Festival gala staged across three linked locations: Fujian on the mainland, Taiwan, and Malacca in Malaysia. The “Taiwan element” refers to a live cross-Strait broadcast link or coordinated performance segment, rather than CCTV formally broadcasting from Taiwan as a domestic media partner.

The 2026 Fujian Spring Festival Gala linked Fujian, the Taiwan region and Malacca in Malaysia. The accompanying photos depict gala performers and stage designs, not a baseball team; any uniforms visible are performance costumes rather than sporting attire. [Photo provided for chinadaily.com.cn]

Lanterns illuminate “Liangma”, reflecting shared hearts — Compatriots across the Strait enjoy the Spring Festival Lantern Show together [灯耀“两马”映同心 两岸同胞共赏新春花灯]
Xinhua
Lantern displays from Matsu add a touch of warmth spanning the Strait. Among them stands the iconic “Matsu Kaoliang” liquor brand. Lively dolphins and sika deer leap amid the display, vividly rendered. Wherever the deer tread, flowers bloom — symbolising a flourishing path ahead — while traditional auspicious motifs convey New Year wishes of prosperity and good fortune to compatriots on both sides.

Taiwan compatriots: We share the same cultural traditions
CGTN
Kunshan, east China’s Jiangsu Province, is known as “Little Taipei” because more than 100,000 Taiwan compatriots live there. A parade highlighting the Mazu culture was held in the city to mark the Chinese New Year. As one of the most active regions on the Chinese mainland with business, economic and cultural ties with China’s Taiwan region, many activities themed on the Mazu culture are held in Kunshan every year.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

China’s UN envoy warns of ‘head-on blow’ if Japan intervenes in Taiwan question
CGTN
China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, warned on 19 February that any military involvement by Japan in the Taiwan question would face a “head-on blow.” Fu made the remarks during the plenary meeting of the 2026 session of the Special Committee on the Charter of the United Nations and on the Strengthening of the Role of the United Nations. Fu said that Japanese leaders in recent years have acted against the tide of history. Japan has explicitly linked the Taiwan question to a so-called “survival-threatening situation,” responded speculatively based on the Japan-U.S. alliance, and attempted to use “self-defense” as a pretext to intervene in the Taiwan question.

• Tokyo defence involvement in Taiwan would amount to aggression against Beijing: UN envoy. South China Morning Post

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

NGO calls for overseas missions to use ’Taiwan’ instead of ’Taipei’
Taipei Times
A New York-based NGO has launched a global initiative to rename the nation’s overseas missions, most of which operate under the name “Taipei,” to “Taiwan Representative Office (TRO),” according to a news release. Ming Chiang, CEO of Hello Taiwan, announced the campaign at a news conference in Berlin on Monday, coinciding with the World Forum held from 16 to 18 February, the institution stated in the release. Speaking at the event, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Huang Jie said she believed this renaming campaign would enable the international community to see Taiwan clearly without the constraints of an ambiguous identity.

• Civil society groups hold an international press conference to launch a campaign to rename offices as “Taiwan Representative Office” [民團召開國際記者會　啟動「台灣代表處」正名行動]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

The self-deceiving political manipulation of Taiwan’s DPP must end - opinion
The Jerusalem Post
Recently, a senior official of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities published an article in The Jerusalem Post, alleging that the Togo-flagged cargo ship Hongtai 58 had damaged Taiwan’s submarine cable, using this as a pretext to promote the so-called “RISK Management Initiative on International Undersea Cables.” This self-deceiving narrative was already manipulated once in February last year. After investigating, Chinese public security authorities exposed this clumsy fabrication.

ASPI Comment: The Jerusalem Post opinion piece, written by a spokesperson for China’s embassy in Israel, advances Beijing’s official line on Taiwan. It accuses Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party of exaggerating or manipulating a reported undersea cable incident to portray China as a threat and to expand Taiwan’s international profile.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

The “US-Taiwan Trade Agreement” is in reality an economic trap that hollows out Taiwan
CGTN
On February 13, China’s Taiwan region and the United States signed a so-called “reciprocal trade agreement,” lowering tariffs on Taiwan’s exports to the US to 15 percent. However, as indicated by the substance of the agreement, the purported “reciprocity” amounts to a highly unequal transaction, for which Taiwan has paid a heavy price … In stark contrast to what is characterized as the US’s self-serving and bullying practices, the Chinese mainland has consistently sought to enhance the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and to strengthen the Chinese national economy.

No incidents to report this week.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Japan warns of Chinese ‘coercion,’ vows overhaul
Taipei Times
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi yesterday warned of growing Chinese “coercion” in her first post-election speech to the Japanese parliament, pledging to overhaul defense strategy, ease curbs on military exports and bolster critical supply chains. Takaichi’s tenure has been marked by a diplomatic dispute with China after she said Japan could use military force to respond to any attack on Taiwan that also threatened Japanese territory. Fresh from turning a fragile majority into a landslide victory in this month’s lower house election, she outlined an agenda to counter what she sees as a mounting economic and security threat from China and its regional partners.

• Taiwan welcomes Japanese FM’s remarks on Taiwan Strait peace. Focus Taiwan

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

US arms sale to Taiwan in limbo amid pressure campaign from China
The Wall Street Journal
A major US arms sales package for Taiwan is in limbo following pressure from Chinese leader Xi Jinping and concerns among some in the Trump administration that greenlighting the weapons deal would derail Donald Trump’s coming visit to Beijing, according to US officials. In a phone call this month with Mr Trump, Mr Xi urged caution on US arms sales to Taiwan, the democratic, self-governing island China claims as part of its territory. Mr Trump wants to avoid antagonising China ahead of his visit, set for the first week of April, the officials said. Asked on 16 February whether he planned to send more weapons to Taiwan, Mr Trump said he had discussed the issue with Mr Xi. “I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a determination pretty soon,” he told reporters.

• White House deflects as Trump weighs Taiwan arms sale delay amid Beijing pressure. South China Morning Post

• Why Trump’s ‘faux pas’ on Taiwan is ringing alarm bells in Washington. The Sydney Morning Herald

• Trump-Xi weapons talk raises concern. Taipei Times

• Calls for Six Assurances law after Trump Taiwan arms comments. Focus Taiwan

U.S., Philippines reiterate importance of Taiwan Strait peace
Focus Taiwan
The United States and the Philippines have reaffirmed the importance of regional security in the Taiwan Strait following the 12th Philippines-United States Bilateral Strategic Dialogue in Manila on 16 Febraury. In a joint statement released by the U.S. Department of State the same day, Washington and Manila emphasized collective defense in deterring aggression anywhere along the first island chain, of which Taiwan is a part. The two countries condemned what they described as China’s “coercive actions” in the South China Sea and reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese military monitors Australian frigate’s passage through Taiwan Strait
China Daily
The People’s Liberation Army monitored the Australian frigate HMAS Toowoomba as it transited the Taiwan Strait from Friday to Saturday, according to media reports citing military sources.

• Australian naval ship transits Taiwan Strait. Taiwan News

China urges Japan to reflect on actions as Takaichi reelected as PM
Japan Today
China on 18 February urged Japan to “reflect” on its actions and “correct its mistakes,” and show its sincerity in protecting the foundation of bilateral ties, after Sanae Takaichi’s reelection as Japan’s prime minister. The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s statement comes as China has reiterated its demand that Takaichi retract her parliamentary comments in November suggesting that Japan’s defense forces could act in the event of an attack on Taiwan, a self-ruled island China claims and has not ruled out taking by force. Takaichi was reelected in parliament after her ruling party secured a historic landslide victory in the 8 February House of Representatives election.

• Taiwan congratulates Takaichi on re-election. Taipei Times

For more on how Beijing’s pressure campaign has produced the opposite effect on Japan’s strategic thinking towards Taiwan, see ‘Beijing pressured Japan over Taiwan. It only strengthened Tokyo’s resolve’ in The Strategist here.

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Utah affirms relationship with Taiwan in resolution
Taipei Times
The Utah State Senate on Thursday unanimously passed a resolution supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, as Taiwan donated US$200,000 to Washington State for flood recovery. The resolution was introduced by Utah State Senator Scott Sandall and also calls for stronger bilateral exchanges in religion, economics and culture, while emphasizing the importance of cooperation in technology and higher education. San Francisco Taipei Economic and Cultural Office Director-General David Wu attended the session in person and thanked the state senate on behalf of the government.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Weekly Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 10 February 2026 to 17 February 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

From 9–10 February, Wang Huning – Xi Jinping’s Taiwan policy czar and a member of the Politburo Standing Committee – presided over the annual ‘Taiwan Work Conference’ in Beijing, a closed-door meeting that sets the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) policy line towards Taiwan for the year ahead.

Although the conference rarely produces dramatic announcements, it functions as a strategic coordination mechanism, aligning messaging, political priorities and operational guidance across the party-state system. Senior officials from the party, propaganda apparatus, United Front system, military and the Taiwan Affairs Office attended, underscoring Taiwan as a whole-of-system issue for the CCP.

The conference helps synchronise actions across domains – military, economic, diplomatic and cognitive. Analysts often look to this meeting for clues about escalation thresholds, the relative weighting of coercion versus inducement, and shifts in propaganda framing. For governments, including Australia, the messaging that emerges from this conference informs assessments of cross-strait stability and the trajectory of Beijing’s pressure campaign.

Wang Huning (centre) speaks at a work conference on Taiwan affairs in Beijing (Photo: Xinhua).

In his keynote address at the conference, Wang reiterated core themes closely associated with Xi Jinping’s Taiwan strategy he helped shape. He emphasised advancing “national reunification”, opposing “Taiwan independence separatist forces”, and deepening cross-strait “integrated development”. The language signalled policy continuity rather than recalibration following Taiwan’s 2024 election cycle. Beijing’s position remains that cross-strait stability is contingent on Taipei accepting Beijing’s “one China” political framework, while responsibility for tensions is placed squarely on the Lai administration and what Beijing characterises as “external interference”.

Several key takeaways emerge from the conference:

• First, there is no indication of moderation in Beijing’s approach. The emphasis on “opposing independence” suggests continued rhetorical and political pressure on Taiwan’s leadership. There will be no olive branches in 2026.

• Second, the conference reinforced a dual-track strategy: sustained coercion alongside inducements. Military signalling, legal tools and diplomatic isolation efforts operate in parallel with economic incentives and outreach efforts targeting Taiwanese youth, businesses and local constituencies.

• Third, Wang’s central role highlights the importance Beijing attaches not only to military deterrence but also to political warfare, narrative shaping and the mobilisation of China’s United Front system.

Wang Huning is central to understanding the ideological foundations of this strategy. A member of the Politburo Standing Committee and Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – an advisory body that consults on policy and projects elite consensus under CCP leadership – Wang is widely regarded as the Party’s chief theoretician. He has served three successive leaders and is closely associated with the articulation of Xi’s political doctrine. His intellectual influence has been most visible in shaping narratives around national rejuvenation, ideological security and systemic competition with the West.

On Taiwan, Wang’s worldview emphasises historical inevitability and regime legitimacy. His writings reflect scepticism towards Western-style pluralism and a conviction that national unity is essential to China’s revival. That intellectual framing translates into a Taiwan policy that prioritises long-term strategic patience and sustained pressure designed to shape political outcomes over time.

17 February: Lunar New Year’s Day in China and Taiwan

Public holiday for Spring Festival in China will be 15 February (Sunday) to 23 February (Monday).

Late February: Meeting between leaders of the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party

Throughout late 2025, several media and political commentary pieces referred to plans or speculation about a meeting between new KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping around Lunar New Year.

April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

U.S. President Donald Trump announced 4 February, on his social media platform, an upcoming visit to China in April at the invitation of President Xi.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

China steps up dangerous air encounters near Taiwan
Financial Times
Chinese fighter jets carried out unusually dangerous manoeuvres near Taiwanese F-16 aircraft during the “Justice Mission” military exercise that the People’s Liberation Army conducted around Taiwan in December. The manoeuvres included a J-16 fighter firing flares at a Taiwanese aircraft during the exercise, according to people familiar with the incidents and a Taiwanese defence ministry report shared with the US military.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Chinese Coast Guard vessels intrude into Kinmen waters; Coast Guard Administration urges Beijing to cease such actions [中國海警船侵擾金門 海巡署籲停止此類舉動]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
After Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered waters around Kinmen on 9 and 10 February, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) on 13 February again detected four Chinese Coast Guard ships appearing near Kinmen. The CGA called on China to stop such actions, jointly contribute to cross-strait peace, and allow people on both sides to enjoy a peaceful Lunar New Year … According to the branch, at 9 a.m. four Chinese Coast Guard vessels — “14603”, “14529”, “14609” and “14530” — entered Kinmen’s restricted waters in two-ship formations, sailing in from the east of Liaoluo and the south of Lieyu respectively, and navigating on reciprocal courses.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese exports

Shanghai tour resumption continues efforts by China to influence outlying islands of Taiwan
New Bloom
The Chinese government has decided to allow residents of Shanghai to travel to Kinmen and Matsu. Previously, only residents of Fujian were allowed to travel to Kinmen and Matsu, with close to 200,000 Fujian residents traveling to Kinmen and Matsu last year … this move continues efforts by the Chinese government to influence Taiwan through tourism, particularly via outlying islands of Taiwan. Chinese tourists once came to Taiwan in large numbers, before the Chinese government cut off tourist numbers after the Tsai administration took office. Through massive amounts of tourism, the Chinese government was attempting to create the perception that Taiwanese society was entirely dependent on Chinese tourism, and that by cutting off tourism, China could effectively “turn off” the Taiwanese economy.

• Security concerns unresolved: Beijing’s overtures to Taiwan’s ‘first-time visitors’ have limited appeal [安全疑慮難解　北京招手台灣「首來族」吸引力有限]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

Economic boycott campaigns

Osaka Dōtonbori stabbing leaves one dead; Chinese consulate again urges citizens to avoid travel to Japan [大阪道頓堀發生持刀傷人案　中領事館再籲避免赴日]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
On the eve of the Lunar New Year, a stabbing incident occurred in Osaka’s Dōtonbori district in Japan, resulting in one death and two injuries. The Chinese Consulate-General in Osaka issued a notice again reminding Chinese citizens to avoid travelling to Japan in the near term. Chinese authorities have recently made repeated calls for citizens to “avoid travelling to Japan” … China–Japan relations have been tense since November last year, after Beijing expressed dissatisfaction over remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in parliament referring to a “Taiwan contingency”. The Chinese government subsequently issued consecutive notices advising Chinese citizens to avoid travelling to Japan.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Senior CPC official stresses advancing peaceful relations across Taiwan Strait
Xinhua
Wang Huning, a senior official of the Communist Party of China (CPC), has urged steadfast efforts to promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and advance national reunification. Wang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, made the remarks at a work conference on Taiwan affairs held in Beijing on 9 and 10 February. Wang stressed the need to uphold the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus, firmly combat “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and oppose interference by external forces.

Central Taiwan Affairs Office and State Council Taiwan Affairs Office visit Fujian to extend greetings to Taiwanese businesspeople and compatriots [中共中央台办、国务院台办在闽看望慰问台商台胞]
Xinhua
Officials from the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Taiwan Affairs Office and the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office travelled to Fujian Province to visit and extend greetings to Taiwanese businesspeople and Taiwanese compatriots based there. During the visit, officials conveyed seasonal greetings and reaffirmed Beijing’s policies supporting Taiwanese enterprises operating on the mainland. They also met representatives of Taiwanese-funded businesses to hear about their operations, development plans and the challenges they face, and reiterated commitments to improving the business environment and safeguarding the lawful rights and interests of Taiwanese investors.

How China uses religion for political influence in Taiwan
DW
A temple to the sea goddess Mazu has become a focal point in Taiwan’s debate over engagement with China. Temple leader Chen Ming‑kun urges cross‑strait peace, but his ties to China raise concerns about political influence. As Beijing steps up pressure, Taiwan is countering with outreach to religious communities to resist infiltration. Many worshippers object, saying faith shouldn’t be politicised.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

KMT sues Liberty Times over reports on meetings with CCP
Focus Taiwan
The Kuomintang (KMT) said 11 February it has filed civil litigation against the Liberty Times and its editor-in-chief Tzou Jiing-wen, accusing the newspaper of publishing “entirely untrue” reports on exchanges between the party and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The party is seeking NT$2 million (US$63,696) in damages and also demanding that a clarification notice be published for one month on the front pages of the China Times, the United Daily News and the Liberty Times -- Taiwan’s three major dailies … The reports made claims about a planned meeting between KMT leader Cheng Li-wun and CCP leader Xi Jinping, Chiang said.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

US House Taiwan-related bill on financial exclusion ridiculed by some netizens on island; expert calls move wishful thinking
Global Times
The US House of Representatives has passed a new Taiwan-related bill directing the US administration to exclude the Chinese mainland from certain international financial institutions if its actions are deemed to “threaten security” of the island. The bill has been mocked by many netizens on the island as another attempt to extract more “protection fees” from Taiwan island. A mainland expert said on 11 February that any attempt to exclude the Chinese mainland from international organizations and financial institutions are largely wishful thinking.

Taiwan Affairs Office: Any attempt to split the country or resist unification is sheer wishful thinking [国台办：任何分裂国家、抗拒统一的图谋都是痴心妄想]
Xinhua
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office, stated on 13 February that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China’s territory — a fact that cannot be changed by anyone shouting slogans or engaging in political manoeuvring. He said that when and how the Taiwan question is resolved is entirely China’s own affair, and that external forces have no right to interfere. In the face of what he described as the historical trend that the two sides of the Strait will and must be unified, and the determination of more than 1.4 billion compatriots to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, any attempt to split the country or resist unification is “sheer wishful thinking”.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

China condemns Lai after interview on Taiwan’s neighbors being ‘next’
Nikkei Asia
China on Thursday called Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te a “destroyer of peace, a creator of crises, and an instigator of war,” after he suggested in an interview that Beijing would move on to attack other countries like Japan if it was able to annex the democratically governed island. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian said that Lai’s comments demonstrated that “’Taiwan independence’ is the root cause of disaster and the source of turmoil for peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait, according to Chinese state media. Lin likened relying on foreign forces to plot independence to “an ant attempting to shake a tree.”

• Taiwan warns neighbours ‘you’ll be next’ if China invades. The Times

The high cost of the ‘threat narrative’ across the Taiwan Strait
CGTN
In the complex geometry of East Asian geopolitics, few phenomena are as persistent – or as perilous – as the use of fear to drive domestic policy. The recent remarks by Taiwan’s leader, Lai Ching-te, coupled with a highly publicized push by U.S. lawmakers, suggest a coordinated effort to amplify a “mainland threat” narrative. While framed as a quest for security, this strategy risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of instability that benefits narrow political interests at the expense of regional peace.

Mainland rebukes Lai Ching-te’s ‘Taiwan independence’ remarks
China Daily
A Chinese mainland spokesperson on 13 February condemned Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te’s separatist stance, calling any attempt to divide the country or resist reunification “nothing but wishful thinking”. Chen Binhua, spokesman for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, criticised Lai’s remarks in a recent interview with Agence France-Presse, saying Lai’s “Taiwan independence” position reflects a stubborn attitude and a deeply entrenched confrontational mindset. Chen denounced Lai for promoting the separatist fallacy that “the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other” and the false narrative of “democracy versus authoritarianism”.

U.S. scholar: The price of defending Taiwan could be hundreds of thousands of American lives
CGTN
In a debate program titled “This Dialogue Project” hosted by the 92NY, Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at Defense Priorities argued that “U.S. military defense of Taiwan is not in America’s national interest.” He noted that the price of defending Taiwan isn’t just a bigger military budget. It could be tens, even hundreds, of thousands of American lives.

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s military or defence industry

China may be rehearsing a digital siege, Taiwan warns
The Record at Recorded Future News
Speaking at the Munich Cyber Security Conference on 13 February, Yuh-Jye Lee — a senior adviser at Taiwan’s National Security Council — delivered a stark warning about China’s intentions to use cyberspace in new and more aggressive ways. “We assess operations [like Volt Typhoon] may serve as real-world testing to paralyze infrastructure,” Lee said during a keynote speech at the conference. “Taiwan being a honeypot has taught us defense is not enough.” Lee’s comments come on the heels of recently leaked technical documents that suggest China is stepping up its infrastructure hacking operations.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Taiwan takes pragmatic approach to restore Honduras ties
Taiwan News
Taiwan will continue to advance pragmatic bilateral ties with Honduras without any preset conditions, the foreign ministry said on 11 February. Honduras Vice President Maria Antonieta Mejia Sanchez said on Monday that restoring diplomatic relations with Taiwan would be a gradual process, per Honduran newspaper La Tribuna. “All we want at this moment is to seek the best diplomatic relations that will benefit Honduras,” Mejia said.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China slams Taiwan’s ‘sycophantic’ praise of Takaichi landslide
Bloomberg
China harshly condemned Taiwan after it congratulated Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on her big election victory, highlighting its testy relationship with both Tokyo and Taipei. Taiwan’s “obsequious and sycophantic attitude is despicable,” said Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the government department in Beijing that handles issues related to the island.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Europe-Taiwan ties tested as some capitals rethink costs of riling China
Nikkei Asia
Budget-threatening political crisis in Taipei adds to unease amid Trump turbulence.
European countries that forged closer bonds with Taiwan in recent years face a fresh challenge as new governments struggle to balance those ties with a desire to do business with China, while an unpredictable U.S. president shakes up the world order.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China’s top diplomat warns Japan of ‘self-destruction’ if it gambles on Taiwan
Caixin Online
In a diplomatic offensive that oscillated between appeals for global harmony and sharp rebukes of regional rivals, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi used the Munich Security Conference to outline Beijing’s vision for a reformed international order while issuing a stark warning to Japan over the issue of Taiwan. Speaking on 14 February, at the annual gathering of defense and foreign policy elites, Wang presented a picture of a world at a crossroads, torn between multilateral cooperation and the fracture of competing blocs. While much of his address focused on stabilizing ties with Europe and navigating the complex relationship with the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump, his most pointed comments were reserved for Japan, drawing a scathing comparison between Tokyo’s handling of its wartime past and Germany’s post-WWII reckoning.

• China is the real threat, Taiwan says in rebuff to Munich speech. Reuters

China urges U.S. to stop “arming Taiwan”
Xinhua
A Chinese mainland spokesperson on 11 February urged the United States to abide by the one-China principle and three China-U.S. joint communiqués, and stop “arming Taiwan.” Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the comments in response to a media query regarding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. “In pursuit of selfish political interests, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities are willing to act as a ‘cash machine’ for U.S. arms dealers and beg for illusory external ‘protection’. Such behaviors will only expose Taiwan to an even more dangerous situation and bring grave disaster to Taiwan compatriots,” Zhu stressed.

• US urged to exercise prudence on Taiwan question, after Washington's claims on region's special defense budget. Global Times

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) warns of rising safety risks; 20 new cases involving travel to China recorded in January [陸委會提醒安全風險　1月赴陸有狀況案例增20人]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
MAC Minister Chiu Chui-cheng said in a radio interview 12 February that people should carefully assess personal safety risks before travelling to China. In January this year alone, 20 cases were recorded involving Taiwanese travellers to China who went missing, were detained for questioning, or had their personal freedom restricted. Chiu stated that the risks of travelling to China have increased. Statistics show that in 2024 there were 55 cumulative cases involving missing persons, detention for questioning, or restrictions on personal freedom. Last year the total reached 221 — four times higher than in 2024. A further 20 cases were added in January this year, bringing the cumulative total since 1 January 2024 to 296.

• China using ‘lawfare’ to coerce Taiwan: Australian think tank. Taipei Times

For more on how Beijing’s lawfare tactics form part of a broader coercive strategy against Taiwan and what that means for cross-strait stability, see ‘An army of lawyers is advancing. Taiwan is the target’ in The Strategist here.

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

Puma Shen goes to France despite threats from China
Taipei Times
Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Puma Shen on 15 February said he is traveling in France despite China’s threats against him. China’s Chongqing Municipal Public Security Bureau in October last year listed Shen as “wanted” and launched an investigation into his alleged “secession-related” criminal activities in Taiwan, including his founding of a civil defense organization that tries to prepare Taiwanese regarding what to do in the event of a Chinese invasion. A Chinese legal expert on China Central Television said Shen should be pursued through Interpol and other mutual judicial assistance agreements with foreign countries.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Weekly Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 3 February 2026 to 10 February 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

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On 3 February, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held a joint think-tank forum in Beijing, marking the first structured party-to-party think-tank exchange between the two sides in nearly a decade. Although the meeting was framed as a confidence-building exercise, the KMT’s decision to participate sits uneasily with Taiwan’s broader security interests and risks reinforcing – rather than moderating – Beijing’s coercive approach.

Although publicly framed as a technocratic and non-political dialogue, the meeting occurred amid heightened cross-strait tensions, with Beijing signalling that the exchange was intended to counter what it portrays as President Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s ‘Taiwan independence’ agenda. In practice, engagement took place on political terms set by Beijing, regardless of how the KMT sought to package the exchange.

Beijing described the forum as an opportunity to “oppose Taiwan independence separatist activities” and to “uphold the political foundation of cross-strait relations”. The KMT, by contrast, said the dialogue was intended to promote “communication over confrontation” and to help “stabilise cross-strait relations through exchanges”.

The last forum of this kind took place at the end of the Ma Ying-jeou presidency in 2016. Notably, Taiwan’s ruling DPP has never engaged in party-to-party exchanges with the CCP, reflecting Beijing’s longstanding refusal to deal with parties it regards as rejecting its “one China” framework.

The timing is particularly problematic. By re-entering formalised dialogue with the CCP during a period of sustained military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, the KMT risks reinforcing Beijing’s coercive strategy rather than moderating it. The forum allows the CCP to portray “dialogue” as evidence that pressure is effective and that Taiwan’s political class is divided – an outcome that aligns closely with Beijing’s grey-zone objectives.

Domestically, this undercuts efforts to project unity in the face of external coercion and complicates the position of the Lai administration, which bears responsibility for managing national security. Internationally, it risks confusing partners by blurring the line between opposition politics and cross-strait negotiation, particularly at a time when Taiwan’s credibility rests on demonstrating coherence and resolve.

For the KMT, participation was less about the substance of individual policy discussions than about reasserting strategic relevance in cross-strait affairs. Since losing executive power in 2016 and facing an electorate increasingly sceptical of engagement with Beijing, the party has struggled to demonstrate that it retains influence, access and credibility as a cross-strait interlocutor. Re-establishing a party-based channel allows the KMT to signal to its traditional base and business constituencies that it remains uniquely capable of managing relations with Beijing in ways the DPP cannot.

The forum also revives a mechanism that can be scaled up or down depending on political contingencies – whether a future return to power by the KMT or Beijing’s desire for alternative channels amid strained government-to-government ties. From the KMT’s perspective, maintaining such access functions as political insurance.

That strategy, however, carries clear risks. By operating within a framework defined by the CCP, the KMT exposes itself to accusations that it is legitimising Beijing’s political red lines and diluting Taiwan’s sovereignty. This is particularly salient given public opinion: polling consistently shows that while Taiwanese favour peace and limited practical exchanges with China, there is no appetite for deeper political engagement – especially under conditions of sustained coercion.

17 February: Lunar New Year’s Day in China and Taiwan

Public holiday for Spring Festival in China will be 15 February (Sunday) to 23 February (Monday).

Late February: Meeting between leaders of the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party

Throughout late 2025, several media and political commentary pieces referred to plans or speculation about a meeting between new KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping around Lunar New Year.

April: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

U.S. President Donald Trump announced 4 February, on his social media platform, an upcoming visit to China in April at the invitation of President Xi.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Black Hawk to drone: new frontier in US rivalry with Beijing over Taiwan Strait?
South China Morning Post
The US is converting Cold War-era helicopters into drones, a move defence experts say could play a “critical role” in any conflict with Beijing over the Taiwan Strait. The PLA has also been retrofitting outdated aircraft to act as uncrewed drones, with both militaries unveiling similar systems within a month of each other last year. The S-70UAS U-Hawk, a fully autonomous helicopter based on the UH-60 Black Hawk, was first showcased last October at an annual American military event, where it was pitched for high-risk cargo resupply and tactical missions.

Could China’s first hybrid transport drone prove a ‘game changer’ in Taiwan Strait?
South China Morning Post
Beijing’s new hybrid-powered unmanned transport aircraft has completed its maiden flight, a development one analyst said could be a military “game changer” in the Taiwan Strait by helping supply elite frontline troops. On 3 February, state broadcaster CCTV described the CH YH-1000S as “the world’s first hybrid-powered unmanned transport aircraft” and said it had completed its maiden flight on Sunday at an airport in the southwestern city of Chongqing. “[The drone] carried a high-powered hybrid power train jointly developed with a leading new energy vehicle company, significantly shortening take-off and landing distances and increasing payload and range,” CCTV said, without providing further details.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (then removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Taiwan says Chinese travel rule change made for political purposes
Taiwan Times
The Mainland Affairs Council on 5 February said China’s decision to allow Shanghai residents to travel to Kinmen and Lienchiang counties is a politically motivated move, not a genuine gesture of goodwill. Following the conclusion of the KMT–CCP think tank forum, at which the two sides reached 15 points of consensus, China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the new travel policy on 4 February, per Liberty Times. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesperson Chen Binhua on 5 February urged Taiwan to lift “unreasonable restrictions” on cross-strait flights … From Taiwan’s perspective, Liang said Beijing’s proposal to allow Shanghai residents to visit Kinmen and Matsu was made for “political purposes,” giving the appearance of goodwill. “We do not consider their offer to open up Shanghai a special favor, because there should be no such restriction in the first place,” he said.

• Taiwan Affairs Office: Hopes the DPP authorities will remove obstacles to restoring normal cross-strait tourism exchanges and cooperation [国台办：希望民进党当局为两岸旅游交流合作恢复正常排除障碍]. Xinhua

• Mainland plans to allow Shanghai residents to travel to Kinmen and Matsu; MAC: it will not be regarded as a favour [陸擬開放上海居民遊金馬　陸委會：不會視作恩惠]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

China’s Communist Party, Taiwan’s Kuomintang hold first forum in 9 years
NHK World
A think tank forum attended by officials from China’s Communist Party and Taiwan’s largest opposition party Kuomintang took place in Beijing on 3 February. Taiwan media reported that it marked the first such meeting between the two parties in about nine years. According to state-run China Central television, about 100 people, including representatives from tourism, science, technology and other fields, attended the forum. Song Tao, who heads the Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council, stressed that the two sides must oppose Taiwan independence and promote the peaceful development of relations across the Taiwan Strait.

• Speeches by KMT and CCP align at forum in Beijing. Taipei Times

• Cross-Strait Relations: Chinese mainland revives cross-Strait exchange platform with Taiwan party. CGTN

• Tourism reps call for more exchanges at KMT-CCP think tank forum. Focus Taiwan

Wang Huning urges cross-strait peace and exchanges in talks with Taiwan’s KMT
South China Morning Post
Wang Huning, mainland China’s top official on Taiwan affairs, told the vice-chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), the island’s main opposition party, that Beijing sought to promote cross-strait exchanges and peace. KMT vice-chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen was received by Wang, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and Beijing’s No. 4 official, and Song Tao, head of the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on 4 February. According to official news agency Xinhua, Wang said the Communist Party was willing to strengthen exchanges with all Taiwanese political parties, groups and individuals, including the KMT, on the basis of upholding the 1992 consensus and opposing “Taiwan independence”.

• Top political advisor meets Taiwan delegates to CPC, KMT think tank forum. CGTN

• Wang Huning invokes the “1992 Consensus”; MAC: Taiwan public opinion firmly opposes it [王滬寧喊「九二共識」　陸委會：台灣民意堅決反對]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

• MAC slams ‘1992 Consensus’ push after CCP, KMT top figures meet in Beijing. Focus Taiwan

Central Committee of the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League holds a discussion with Taiwan-invested enterprises in Beijing [台盟中央与在京台资企业座谈]
Xinhua
The Central Committee of the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League (TDSL) held a discussion and exchange with representatives of Taiwan-invested enterprises based in Beijing, sharing hometown ties, discussing development, and celebrating the Spring Festival of the Year of the Horse … [delegate were urged to seize…] the advantages of the mainland’s market scale, industrial system and innovation potential will continue to be unleashed, injecting strong momentum into the peaceful development of cross-strait relations in the new era and opening up broader space for Taiwan compatriots and enterprises to take root and develop on the mainland.

ASPI Comment: The Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League (TDSL) is one of the PRC’s eight officially recognised “democratic parties” and functions as a United Front organisation under CCP leadership, not as an independent political actor. It represents Taiwan-born and Taiwan-linked individuals living on the mainland, participates in consultative bodies such as the CPPCC, and plays a specialised role in Beijing’s Taiwan policy by engaging business and professional elites, promoting cross-strait “integration”, and projecting an image of inclusivity while advancing the CCP’s political objectives on Taiwan.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

China mulls action on Taiwan elections
Taipei Times
Beginning 9 February, China is holding a “Taiwan Work Conference,” with sources from Beijing indicating that the meeting would establish a special task force to respond to Taiwan’s local elections. Local elections are scheduled for 28 November for mayoral and city council positions in Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung, as well as for county commissioners, mayors, councilors, borough wardens and other local representatives in the other 16 counties and county-level cities. The meeting would be chaired by Wang Yi, member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, sources said.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

DPP authorities push ‘de–Sun Yat-sen’ changes to New Taiwan dollar banknotes; Taiwan Affairs Office: harbouring sinister intentions and utterly disgraceful [民进党当局推动新台币纸钞“去孙中山化” 国台办：包藏祸心，令人不齿]
Xinhua
On 5 February, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press briefing. A reporter asked: recently, the DPP authorities have been promoting a redesign of New Taiwan dollar banknotes, with the new notes no longer featuring portraits of political figures such as Sun Yat-sen … Spokesperson Chen Binhua responded: The DPP authorities’ deliberate push to remove Sun Yat-sen from New Taiwan dollar banknotes is aimed at severing historical and cultural links across the Strait, advancing “de-Sinicisation”, and shaping a “Taiwan independence” ideology within Taiwanese society. This kind of political manipulation, harbouring sinister intentions, is a betrayal of Mr Sun Yat-sen and the pioneers of the 1911 Revolution—an act of forgetting one’s roots and utterly disgraceful.

ASPI Comment: The DPP’s push to remove Sun Yat-sen from New Taiwan dollar banknotes reflects a broader effort to recalibrate Taiwan’s state symbolism away from China-centric and Kuomintang-era narratives and towards a more Taiwan-focused civic identity. For Beijing, however, such changes are not cosmetic but political: they are seen as incremental “salami-slicing” that erodes shared historical narratives, weakens claims of political continuity across the Strait, and accelerates Taiwan’s long-term identity separation.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Open criticism in Taiwan regarding new planned US arms sales; expert warns approval will severely crowd out budget resources for public welfare and social benefits
Global Times
After the Financial Times reported on 6 February that the US is compiling a large arms sale of Patriot missiles and other weapons for the island of Taiwan, various opposition parties on the island publicly criticized the regional leader, Lai Ching-te, questioning how much more financial burden he intends to impose on the residents of Taiwan. A Chinese expert commented on 8 February that the US perceives these arms sales as a form of indirect “protection money,” requiring Taiwan to pay through military purchases. He warned that if the new arms sale plan is approved, it would severely strain Taiwan’s budget for public welfare, social services, and economic development, ultimately harming the island’s overall progress.

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s military or defence industry

Taiwan highlighted in report tracking global expansion of China-linked hacking
Taiwan News
A cybersecurity survey has found Chinese state-backed hacking groups far outnumber those attributed to other major actors, with Taiwan described as facing some of the most intense pressure. A recent survey by cybersecurity firm Forescout’s research unit Vedere Labs counted 210 China-based state-backed hacking groups, compared with 112 linked to Russia and 55 associated with Iran, per CNA. The report said activity from the groups reached 178 countries last year.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Taiwan’s envoy to Canada says fear of China may be delaying trade deal
Canada Broadcasting Corporation
Taiwan’s representative in Canada says he is concerned the Liberal government may be deliberately delaying the signing of a trade agreement with Taipei to preserve its relationship with China. Harry Tseng, the head of the Taipei’s Economic and Cultural Office in Canada, told Radio-Canada that the negotiating teams from Ottawa and Taipei have initialed every page of the trade co-operation framework agreement and it has been ready for final signatures since April. There are “no negotiations left. Not only [is it] initialed — we have three versions of the text ready: English, French and Mandarin,” said Tseng. “That tells you how close we are to the final signature. This is a result of very long-term synergy and it is there, readily available.”

Taiwan Strait missions are about international law, not provocation, French diplomat says
Reuters
Naval missions by foreign countries in the Taiwan Strait are about asserting international law, rather than offering provocation, France’s de facto ambassador in Taipei said on 5 February, speaking of voyages that routinely infuriate China … “This is a clear message that we repeat all the time, and I think there is a good choreography between a number of G7 partners to send this message,” [Franck Paris, director of the French Office in Taipei] added, pointing to past naval trips by Canada and the Netherlands, among others. The last publicly confirmed sailing by a French navy ship in the strait, a conduit for trade running into billions of dollars a year, was in 2024.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Foreign ministry rejects Uruguay-China statement on Taiwan status
Taiwan News
Taiwan’s foreign ministry on 4 February rejected a Uruguay-China statement that misrepresents Taiwan’s status and called for respect for facts. Uruguayan President Yamandu Orsi met Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday. The South American country’s foreign ministry later issued the statement, claiming that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of China’s territory and that Uruguay opposes any form of Taiwan independence.

• MOFA response to false claims regarding Taiwan in joint statement between PRC and Uruguay. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan)

Lithuanian PM says Vilnius ‘jumped in front of a train’ with Taiwanese office
LRT
Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said 3 February that Lithuania made a strategic mistake by allowing a Taiwanese representative office to open in Vilnius under the name “Taiwanese”, arguing the move was not coordinated with the European Union or the United States and led to a sharp deterioration in relations with China. “I think Lithuania really jumped in front of a train and lost,” Ruginienė told BNS in an interview.

• In diplomatic U-turn, Vilnius rues Taiwan de facto embassy row with Beijing. South China Morning Post

• Lithuanian PM describes Taiwan office as ‘mistake’. Taipei Times

• ‘Taiwanese’ office name a tactical mistake but not wrong: Lithuanian lawmaker. Focus Taiwan

China’s Xi presses Trump on Taiwan in phone call
The New York Times
President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China had a lengthy phone call on 4 February during which, Mr. Trump said, the two leaders discussed a wide range of issues — including Iran, the war in Ukraine and soybeans — ahead of Mr. Trump’s visit to China this spring … But a description of the call from Chinese state media was much more forceful, and suggested that the issue of Taiwan was front and center. Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump that the American position on Taiwan was “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” it said, and asserted that China “will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China.” “The U.S. must handle arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump, according to the description in Chinese state media.

• Relations with US ‘rock solid’, Taiwan President says after Trump-Xi call. The Strait Times

• Xi warns Trump about arms sales to Taiwan in call ahead of April visit. Nikkei Asia

ASPI Comment: For more on how Washington’s bid to steady relations with Beijing is testing perceptions of its credibility in defending Taiwan’s security, see ‘Trump’s US can still defend Taiwan. But will it?’ in The Strategist here.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Weekly Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 27 January 2026 to 3 February 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwan is spending more on defence than ever before, yet the island has slid into a budget standoff in which political paralysis – not under-funding – is preventing a NT$1.25 trillion (AUD$62 billion) special defence package from advancing despite mounting pressure from China and the United States.

In the past week, the opposition bloc has gone further. They have advanced a much smaller, alternative defence proposal while continuing to block the government’s package, entrenching the standoff rather than resolving it.

The Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) insist the original proposal lacks sufficient detail and demand that President Lai Ching-te appear before the legislature to answer questions – an arrangement the government argues is unconstitutional. At the same time, the Ministry of National Defense has publicly criticised the opposition’s alternative plan as “unworkable,” warning it would fragment procurement and fail to deliver the integrated capabilities Taiwan requires. The result is a sustained legislative freeze at precisely the moment when Taiwan is attempting to accelerate defence investment amid rising pressure from China.

This impasse sits atop a sharp increase in defence spending over the past two years. In 2024, Taiwan’s defence budget reached NT$606.8 billion (AUD$30 billion), rising to NT$647 billion in 2025 (AUD$32 billion), roughly 2.4–2.5% of GDP. These increases reflected a broad recognition that China’s pressure campaign required faster investment in asymmetric capabilities.

Building on this trajectory, the Lai administration proposed a step-change for 2026: a NT$949.5 billion defence budget (AUD$47 billion; 3.32% of GDP) alongside the NT$1.25 trillion multi-year special budget (AUD$62 billion) intended to fund missiles, air and missile defence, unmanned systems, and long-range precision strike. Senior US officials have publicly underscored that these investments are essential, framing Taiwan’s defence spending as a test of ally burden-sharing and credibility at a time of heightened regional risk.

The problem is that these plans collided with a highly polarised political landscape in Taiwan. Following the January 2024 elections, the KMT and TPP secured a legislative majority, while the presidency remained with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Since then, defence budgeting has become a tool of political leverage rather than a vehicle for strategic consensus.

The first rupture came with the 2025 budget, when the opposition imposed NT$207.5 billion in cuts and freezes across government (AUD$10.5 billion), including NT$8.4 billion cut outright from defence (AUD$420 million) and nearly NT$90 billion frozen (AUD$4.5 billion) – more than 20% of proposed defence spending.

Such cuts were unprecedented in scale. Core programmes were directly affected: 50% of funding for the Indigenous Defence Submarine (IDS) programme was frozen pending further review, as was half the budget for a military-led drone industrial park. These were not symbolic gestures. They delayed programmes central to Taiwan’s asymmetric deterrence strategy and disrupted planning, contracting, and timelines.

The result is a widening gap between appropriation and execution. Taiwan’s defence spending has risen rapidly in nominal terms, but opposition-imposed cuts and freezes have blocked the timely release of funds, meaning that increased budgets have not translated cleanly into deployable capability. Put simply, Taiwan is spending more, but delivering less, more slowly.

That confrontation has since hardened into structural gridlock. Since late 2025, the special defence budget has been blocked multiple times before deliberation can begin. Rather than negotiating changes to the government’s proposal, the opposition has instead prioritised its own narrower bill – estimated at roughly NT$400 billion (AUD$20 billion) – while leaving the larger package procedurally stalled. The opposition frames this as fiscal oversight and procedural accountability; the government views it as obstruction that undermines national security. Neither side has shifted meaningfully, and compromise has been elusive.

This dysfunction matters for several reasons.

• First, Taiwan’s strategy depends on timely acquisition, training, and sustainment. Budget paralysis delays contracts, compresses schedules, and raises costs.

• Second, China judges Taiwan not only by its force structure, but by its capacity to mobilise resources under pressure. Prolonged, visible deadlock feeds a narrative of internal weakness.

• Third, US officials have now explicitly and publicly linked Taiwan’s security to its willingness to pass defence budgets, sharpening the alliance consequences of legislative obstruction.

• Fourth, long-lead systems such as submarines and missile defences cannot absorb repeated funding disruptions without strategic consequences.

• Finally, public opinion data show majority support for higher defence spending and growing frustration with legislative stalling.

The risk for Taiwan is no longer whether it is willing to spend on defence, but whether its political system can still deliver deterrence at the pace the strategic environment and key security partners demand.

2-4 February: KMT-CCP Think Tank Exchange, Beijing, China

The Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are scheduled to hold a think tank exchange in Beijing. According to KMT insiders, the exchange will focus on non-political topics, including artificial intelligence, disaster prevention, and low-carbon and sustainable industrial development, in an effort to reduce sensitivity.

17 February: Lunar New Year’s Day in China and Taiwan

Public holiday for Spring Festival in China will be 15 February (Sunday) to 23 February (Monday).

Late February: Meeting between leaders of the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party

Throughout late 2025, several media and political commentary pieces referred to plans or speculation about a meeting between new KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping around Lunar New Year.