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Why a Natural Gas Backtest Got Better Out-of-Sample (PF 1.66 → 3.53 Across 124 Trades)
And the 23 robustness tests I run on every trading strategy before going live...
May 27
•
The Rogue Quant
12
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The Quietest Big Trade On The Board - (CoT Update 05/22/2026)
Real money just made its second-largest 10-Year rebuild in three years, while price barely moved.
May 23
•
The Rogue Quant
18
8
This Nasdaq Strategy Has A 75% Win Rate (Until I Found the December Bug)
One pivot pattern. Drawdown 32% → 25% with one calendar filter. Here's exactly what changed.
Apr 30
•
The Rogue Quant
16
7
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The Small-Cap Tell (CoT update)
Institutions kept buying the melt-up this week. Except the Russell 2000...
Apr 24
•
The Rogue Quant
19
3
2
Patient Money Stopped Acting Patient (CoT Update)
Real money bought the 10-Year, sold it, then bought it back. Equities stayed near the ceiling. Grains finally cracked. Bitcoin lost the floor.
Jun 6
•
The Rogue Quant
7
6
Crude Got Paid (CoT Update 05/15/2026)
WTI's physical-market long got paid. The Russell finally cracked after real money left. Nasdaq kept attracting institutional money without price…
May 16
•
The Rogue Quant
15
4
Cocoa Went Vertical | CoT Update: 05/08/2026
The squeeze ran +16% in five sessions. Real money cut the bond conviction trade. The Russell finished. The Nasdaq cut got bought right back.
May 9
•
The Rogue Quant
16
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The Distribution Went Mainstream (CoT update)
Last week real money quit small caps. This week they quit Nasdaq, Dow, and Nikkei… at the highs.
May 2
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The Rogue Quant
20
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