“That was rooted in our own internal sentiment and understanding that heavier tight end sets were gonna be something that got prioritized. We felt certainly a heavier tight end run throughout the course of the back-end of the second into the third. Typically, that’s a window where the wide receiver run is really occuring.”

James Gladstone offered the quote of the evening in explanation of his eye-popping selection of Texas A&M TE Nate Boerkircher at 54 overall. After a season where offenses with heavy run games cleaned up in both the run and pass games, and TE deployment/personnel matching were the topics du jour schematically, a league-wide reaction in the draft was inevitable.

Now, Boerkircher is a good player and will give them what they drafted, but it’s an instructive look into why being one of the copycats in a copycat league isn’t often very fruitful. So far, what we’re seeing is two diverging and extreme interpretations of what this “heavy personnel” craze actually means.

Before we continue, you must accept one thing. The people running these teams are not offering you a look forward into the next rational evolution of the meta. The smart people weaponizing/developing TEs and setting this trend have already ushered that in. Last night was the reaction of a league that doesn’t fully understand what it’s copying.

The Run on Run Blocking

If you reread my draft preview and rankings, the refrain about Charlie Kolar will ring extra-true afterward.

“Tight Ends are made and broken by their total schematic value, half of which does not exist in the stat sheet. In a league so desperate for TEs who can block as 6th linemen that players like Charlie Kolar can command double-digit cap hits despite zero receiving, players like this [Eli Raridon] are where you will find the peak of value.”

There is a disgusting scarcity of TEs who can block in-line at all after the 2010s, and certainly those in this class who cannot. As James Gladstone hinted at and I’ve been saying since the launch of this stack, a dangerous run game with big lines of scrimmage to worry about is a critical element of being efficient and explosive in the passing game now. It’s a dynamic game of conflict, no longer a static game of pure space.

Much of this is due to that scarcity, but we are going TOO FAR in the other direction. With that said, this is a mistake that will be less harmful to offenses in the long run than the fake TE 11.5 personnel direction. Just as we had the “wide receiver test,” we must institute an “offensive lineman test.” That test will be far easier to pass, of course, but still. In addition, the value of a guy who does pass it (IE Michael Mayer or Colby Parkinson) is less than the unicorns who pass the WR test (Travis Kelce).

Drafting TEs with premium picks for pure receiving is a bad idea because we have other guys (WR) for that. Drafting TEs with premium picks for pure blocking is also stupid.

It’s becoming clear that a bunch of teams are overcompensating and, just like before, still not understanding what a Tight End actually is. Some required reading for NFL GMs is linked here.

Those Who Get It

If you want the model for TE evaluation, deployment, and development, there is nobody better than Ben Johnson. Johnson now has three Y-capable TEs, one of whom can flex into the F, and all three of whom can run routes and catch the ball. They are also all 250+ and again, are Y-capable.

13 personnel with those dudes is not the same as 13 personnel with, say, Drew Sample, Brock Wright, and some flex guy tossed in there. Everything is relative to the TOTALITY of what you can do, and the skillsets of every individual contribute to that whole.

If the Bears didn’t get it, they would have taken a need for another blocker to replace Smythe as the blocking TE3 short-term and long-term, replace Cole Kmet as the primary in-line blocker and drafted someone like Will Kacmarek. They didn’t evaluate the skill in isolation. This is the process to follow.

Sean McVay gets it too. His group isn’t quite as good as Chicago’s, but Klare has elite upside and a decent floor. It’s noteworthy to me that McVay mentioned the Purdue tape much more than he mentioned Ohio State when discussing this pick. He did his homework and saw what I saw.

While I think he’s hedging on Ferguson a little here with how horrific year one was for him as a blocker, there’s still plenty of room for both of them in an ideal world. While Colby Parkinson is likely to remain the starter unless Klare blows up, they did need a touch more route-running from the TE room to make their 13 personnel gambit work long-term at the rates they run it.

The nuance here is that, like Chicago, they didn’t just go out and try to evaluate only the primary skill they’re selecting for. They know nothing exists in a vacuum, so they picked the guy who they think has that skill while also being a real and sustainable player. Other skills and attributes matter even if they are not what you’re primarily selecting for. This goes for every position, but especially this one.

A dumb team that doesn’t get it would have reached for someone like Tanner Koziol, or Justin Joly, or God forbid, Michael Trigg here once they decided they needed more route-running. Nothing exists in isolation.

The Stowers Situation

On the surface, the Eagles took two very talented pass-catchers I like…that don’t fit onto their team at all. Both Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers are F-types by nature. That’s not actually the biggest issue, or even a problem. The Rams made Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp work together for years. As long as one of those guys can play the perimeter a little bit, which Lemon definitely can, you can do a lot to make two intermediate-middle winners work together.

Not on the Eagles. They can’t make ONE intermediate-middle winner work given their…issues at QB. Intermediate zone-shredders are useless here. With that said, I think there’s a lot Eli Stowers can do in 12 personnel as an RPO threat, screen threat, run game gadget, and schemed-up shot target. I do think the Eagles are one of the few teams better off replacing the slot position with a flex-only TE because they simply should not generate their down-to-down volume from the passing game. Hurts can physically launch it deep very accurately, but he cannot drop back and see the field well enough to be the guy who sustains them. That has to come on the ground, which negates a lot of the value of the slot and inflates the relative blocking add of a move-TE. For this reason, this was the dream fit for Kenyon Sadiq. As an aside, Stowers is much better for Frank Reich and Geno Smith than Sadiq is.

I really wanted him to land in a serious dropback pass game like Kansas City, where he could be maximized as a power slot, potentially even with a full-time move to WR. That leads me to something I’m wondering. Is he here to replace AJ Brown? There are front offices that see Stowers not only as a full-time slot WR, but as a Michael Pittman-type X. Is Philly gonna take 15 pounds off of Stowers and put him there?

Regardless, with the nature of Jalen Hurts as a passer, the best of Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers is wasted. Still though, this is something to watch.

Diving into the approaches across the league is instructive. Regardless of results, there is a lot to learn from the processes that were put on display during day two of the 2026 NFL draft. FYI, the TEs of the smart teams are probably gonna work out.

Ranking the 2026 TE class is not an activity for the faint of heart. Unlike last season, these prospect journeys feel unfinished. What do I do about Max Klare, who looked like two different players during his career? What about Oscar Delp with great tape and multiple years without anything to show for it?? What about Sam Roush with an elite profile and 4-inch arms? And what do I do about the consensus TE1, whose strengths and weaknesses mix to create so much misalignment in his profile?

To the Class of 2026: May you all hit the tops of your annoyingly huge ranges of outcomes. Your new league could really use it.

TE1: Eli Raridon, Notre Dame

Height: 6061

Weight: 245

Arm Length: 3268

40: 4.62

Split: 1.60

Vert: 36.0

Broad: 1003

Eli Raridon is probably nobody else’s number one, but this was not one of the rankings I found difficult. Tight Ends are made and broken by their total schematic value, half of which does not exist in the stat sheet. In a league so desperate for TEs who can block as 6th linemen that players like Charlie Kolar can command double-digit cap hits despite zero receiving, players like this are where you will find the peak of value.

After two ACL tears, one in HS that was fixed incompletely, and one early in college as a result, Raridon has ascended rapidly to the top of his craft. Notre Dame’s coaches all knew a breakout was coming in 2025, and while the box score isn’t overpowering, they were correct.

Raridon is a bit lean at 245 in a 6’6 frame, but despite those being the dimensions of Kyle Pitts, he is visibly thicker and denser on the field. That shows up in-line, where he is extremely consistent with both technique and strength. While he isn’t a road-grader, his reach and technique make him a reliable rep-winner that Notre Dame ran behind almost to the point of predictability. Difficult matchups, including Reuben Bain and Dani Dennis-Sutton over the past couple of seasons, have not phased him or his coordinators at all. They’re still running behind 9, and he’s still clearing that perimeter.

He finally busted out as a receiver in 2025. Notre Dame’s offense lacks the schemed-up PA/boot production that any TE relies on to produce big numbers. In that context, 482 yards on nothing but big-boy dropback concepts and a pro-style route menu is nothing to sneeze at.

There is a complete route-runner here who combines speed and linear fluidity with controlled strides, effective deceleration, and quickness. He feels space in zones just as well as he disengages man defenders. Seams, in-breakers, out-breakers, choice routes, and static underneath routes are all great ways to get him the ball regardless of coverage. Safeties can’t handle his fluidity and he knows how to use his frame to bully guys when he gets them out of phase. As much as he broke out this past year, I think there is still more upside to tap into with him as a receiver as his role expands.

An elite athlete to boot, nothing is missing from Raridon’s profile. Remember that a Y who can catch the ball is a serve-breaker, a game-changer, a huge value in a league that is currently forced to pay for Ys who cannot. Oh, and he’s a 1v1 capable pass-protector. The in-line blocking he brings is non-negotiable to have somewhere in the offensive unit, but he goes so much further. The consensus board is smoking crack with this one; Eli Raridon is a top 50 player.

Round Grade: Early to mid 2nd

TE2: Oscar Delp, Georgia

Height: 6047

Weight: 245

Arm Length: 3158

40: 4.49*

Split: 1.61*

Vert: 38.0*

Broad: 1005*

*Pro Day

If you believe in process over results, Oscar Delp is the one for you. A three-year starter at the Y for Georgia, he started his career paired with Brock Bowers at the F before that role switched to WR Dillon Bell and TE Lawson Luckie. He never assumed that role because, in his time at Georgia, he was the only guy who could play the actual TE position.

Getting the Y targets is not actually something that will simply happen just because the guy is good enough for them. The Georgia offense changed a lot between Carson Beck and Gunnar Stockton, but neither offense was conducive to Delp putting up numbers. This was especially pronounced in his final year, where the limitations, both in processing and pure throwing ability, of Stockton reduced the passing game to screens to Zach Branch off of the run game.

Come on, how ridiculous is that? It’s not like Branch was some world-beater either. His route tree is very limited and he projects as a gadget in the NFL. The pro-style intermediate and underneath concepts that TEs feed on are absent from this offense because the QB couldn’t see those sliding, fast windows.

In addition to schematic issues, they simply didn’t design a lot off the run game to get to him. That’s unfortunate, but you need a TE in protection often in the PA game. Nobody else on the team could do it.

With Delp, you have to evaluate his receiving on whether he could have gotten the ball on a given play. You must truly isolate for Oscar Delp.

That is a good picture. The burst and speed jump off the screen, but what makes Delp so dangerous is his ability to sink and change direction. He accelerates out of breaks like a rocket ship. While the application to linear stretch routes like deep overs, seams, and flats is obvious, he has more tools in his bag as a mover. While I think he lacks some top-end wiggle in the shoulders that stops him from being a George Kittle-level separator when he builds speed, he has surprisingly nimble feet. The benefit of that is obvious on slants, choice routes, and speed outs in the underneath windows. Less obvious is how it allows him to tempo routes and time his acceleration. As that gets honed more, I think he can find another gear as a man-coverage beater.

As a blocker, I don’t think he will ever be elite, but I do think he will be rock solid. His willingness is obviously off the charts, and his footwork consistently prevents him from losing in a catastrophic way, even when a defender gets the better of him. His hands need some work, I think he lacks the top-end strength to be dominant, but he should be a fine Y who doesn’t limit you in the run game. As a pass-protector, he is another stud with great feet and an ability to mirror rushers.

(Sound on)

I don’t care if you don’t get the ball if it isn’t your fault. Remember The Tight Ends is waving back at you Oscar.

Round Grade: Mid to late 2nd

TE3: Sam Roush, Stanford

Height: 6060

Weight: 267

Arm Length: 3058

40: 4.70

Split: 1.61

Vert: 38.5

Broad: 1006

Remember what I said about Charlie Kolar? Anytime someone pushing 270 shows up at the combine, decent production and receiving tape on his resúmé, and does what he did, you have to take some notice. I first noticed Roush last summer while watching Notre Dame’s defense entirely because of his pass protection. It is so rare to see a team treat their TE like a Tackle and ask him to consistently handle DEs on pass-sets like that. Blocking DEs in the run game is a TE requirement, but it is not in the passing game.

Roush profiles like a pure tank, but his athleticism shows up on tape. While he isn’t quite a Jimmy Graham monstar, his fluidity, quickness, short-area precision, and feel for zones make him a credible threat from the Y. He’s surprisingly nimble and glides, which makes him effective in the 0-15 yard range against zone coverages and after the catch. While I don’t think he’ll ever be a pure matchup-winner and primary volume pass-catcher on the perimeter, improvements in hand-use to clear the jams of defenders will go along way in making him useful against man-coverage. He has the movement ability to get Safeties out of phase enough that his body can help him get open, he just needs to stop them from getting hands on and disrupting him from getting to break points.

Roush is explosively strong and has excellent technique as a blocker. When he connects on a strike, guys crumble, and he anchors effectively even when he doesn’t connect. That’s good, because he has cartoonishly short arms. This may cap his raw upside as a blocker, which complicates things. A player like this can truly only be an elite player if he is an elite, elite, Josh Oliver-esque blocker with the run-action detachment, zone beating, and YAC ability that complements the WRs. That’s why he isn’t TE1 though, he can be here.

Round Grade: Late 2nd to early 3rd

TE4: Max Klare, Ohio State

Height: 6043

Weight: 246

Arm Length: 3218

40: I

Split: Wish

Vert: We

Broad: Had this information

Max Klare is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the hardest eval in this class. Separating him into the Purdue and Ohio State versions of himself is instructive, but frustrating. On one hand you have an elite prospect whose tape is complete both in-line and as a receiver. The issue is that, at about 240 listed, he is likely just under the size cut-off to translate in-line. Putting on a touch of weight should finish the picture of a first-round TE in the mold of TJ Hockenson. He was effective in the slot and out wide in addition to the Y, though he was Purdue’s main, every-down Y. Quickness in the feet, flexibility in the hips, acceleration out of breaks, juice after the catch, it was all there as a pass-catcher for Purdue Max Klare.

Then we get to Ohio State. Here, he profiles as a smooth, big enough at 245, and refined zone-beater. He works windows and can move well enough to navigate with some quickness and fluidity, but lacks the next level juice to be a weapon against man coverage or after the catch. As a blocker, he’s a move-only guy in usage, but we know based on his previous year at Purdue and increased weight that blocking in-line solidly is in his capability. Will Kacmarek blocked him from that role, understandable, he’s a tank.

So will the real Max Klare please stand up? I was hoping that he would test at his 246 pound weight. If he tested well, he’d have put the juice concerns to bed as maybe a hidden injury or something. It did look a bit inconsistent week to week in 2025 instead of uniformly worse after all. He didn’t test, and we’re left to wonder whether Max Klare is TJ Hockenson on the high end, Cade Otton on the medium, or Jake Tonges on the low end. The stability and reasonable floor, when combined with that theoretical ceiling, makes me put him above this next guy in a tight race. I think even in that undersized 240, if we can get Purdue Klare back, I think he would be better both in-line and as a route-runner in the slot if forced into an F-only role. That said, I think he could outkick his size a little bit better given his decent length and simply the raw tape at Purdue in-line. I just think if both are undersized, Klare’s better. If Klare can rediscover Purdue Klare at 245, then he’s much better. 5 pounds of muscle makes a world of difference in-line.

Round Grade: Early 3rd

TE5: Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

Height: 6031

Weight: 241

Arm Length: 3148

40: 4.39 (!)

Split: 1.54 (!)

Vert: 43.5 (!)

Broad: 11.01 (!)

Kenyon Sadiq is a freakshow test athlete and a solid but also spectacular and exciting overall football player who has enormous holes in his profile. His projection is much more narrow than it should be for someone we’re supposed to be taking in the first round. I already wrote at length about this so I don’t want to fully restate. Read my profiles both here and for Reception Perception on why that all is. He’s got limited but explosive route-running skillset of a full time Y, but lacks the size and upper-body strength to handle that as a blocker. He doesn’t have the maneuverability and sink in the hips to separate against man coverage. All in all, I think he’s a rotational F who fits well on a team who both runs the QB and needs to get their down to down sustainability in the run game. Think the Ravens or Arthur Smith when he was with the TItans. Those are the kinds of offenses that are willing to sacrifice a complex route-threat for a move blocker on a consistent basis on first and second down. His linear explosiveness and YAC ability make him a dangerous accessory in run-action and the screen game, but you’ll be missing a slot receiver in the passing game. Sadiq is not that, but the guy after him…….

Round Grade: Early 3rd

TE6*: Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt

Height: 6036

Weight: 239

Arm Length: 3258

40: 4.51

Split: 1.59

Vert: 45.5 (!!!!!!!!)

Broad: 1103 (!)

Eli Stowers is a brutal evaluation because he is so fucking good at what he is, but I don’t know if he’s good enough to demand an every-down role and be worth a premium pick. This isn’t like Brock Bowers where it was very obvious.

He just doesn’t move like this, you can see the difference. As a result, it’s tough to know whether Stowers, as he is, can pass the WR test and fill all of the needs ot the F position the way he must to play it full-time.

Is that impossible?? Dude, no, it really isn’t, and that’s what makes pessimism so difficult even if he breaks my rules. Stowers definitely has some room to grow as a route-runner and technician given how new he is to pass-catching. That frames where he is currently at pretty well, because he is already much further ahead than he should be. Obviously he is an explosive athlete and can do some stuff after the catch, but his natural feel for zones has a chance to develop over time into something almost Kelce-ish.

The detraction I have here from that is simply that he doesn’t have the same level of suddenness into and out of breaks. Bowers isn’t just an exception because he’s a flex-only WR substitute, he’s an exception because he’s that under 245 pounds. Guys like Kelce, Ertz, Andrews in their primes were still a tiny touch below a decent slot in suddenness and maneuverability, but their overwhelming true TE size (all three weigh 250) makes up that little difference.

With such bulk, they never lose speed against man coverage becaue their routes are impacted by contact less than a 185-200 pound slot, even one who manages contact well. that makes up the difference and I don’t know if Stowers has that kind of physicality.

There’s just a little bit more stiffness, and that’s old Kelce not young Kelce. I’m not saying that he can’t get there with some development, it’s just hard to be sure of it and if he doesn’t get to an A+ level as a pure separator, he’s gonna come off the field a lot…which he did in college! Obviously, all this goes without saying given how this eval has gone down…he can’t block at all.

Regardless, I think you’re gonna get a really nice, Kincaid-esque third-down bucket getter to come off the bench and knock down some shots.

There’s also a chance for a move here. Most TEs just would have played WR already if they could, but Stowers just moved from QB. I do wonder what a 220 pound Eli Stowers looks like as a pure big-slot. With his testing (at a higher weight) and feel for zones, I wonder if there’s a diet Drake London in there that just hasn’t been unlocked yet. I like him as a pure third down TE, but if he wants to be an every-down player I think this is his best move. It’d certainly be far more lucrative.

He also looks exactly like High School Musical legend Corbin Bleu. Is Eli Stowers going to be an every-down impact player? I don’t know. Is Eli Stowers going to be a useful weapon? Bet on it, bet on it, bet on it, bet on it.

Round Grade: 3rd

TE7: Dae’Quan Wright, Ole Miss

Height: 6036

Weight: 246

Arm Length: 3228

40: N/A (Did not test due to injury rehab)

Split: N/A

Vert: N/A

Broad: N/A

Dae’Quan Wright has been a favorite for a while and undoubtedly was one of CFB’s best last season. While I do think his pure upside is limited due to some stiffness as a separator, I must return to the Charlie Kolar point once again. His impact as a receiver will be limited to being schemed up behind the LBs and into the flat, but he is a demon in that capacity. His burst and juice as a YAC guy are pretty ridiculous and he stretches the second level fluidity in a purely linear capacity. Don’t ask him to stop and start, but a guy like this can fill your in-line needs while giving you some real chunks as a WR complement.

The blocking is more stable than overwhelming, but he is consistent and strong. I expect he’ll grow into an outright excellent blocker in the NFL. He certainly has the toughness, having played through a serious shoulder injury this year. With this kind of pure playmaking juice as well, he can give you an AJ Barner type of impact.

Round Grade: Late 3rd to early 4th

TE8: Jack Endries, Texas

Height: 6045

Weight: 245

Arm Length: 3118

40: 4.62

Split: 1.59 (great number for him)

Vert: 36.0

Broad: 911

I did not expect to like Jack Endries as much as I did. Admittedly, clearing and testing at that solid 245 bar was big for me, but there’s a lot here. Personally I think he should have come back to school, as he is more talented than his stock and has proven production. With how he tested, he could have pushed his way into the 2nd round next year.

Anyway, Endries is a beautiful glider. He covers space effortlessly and is probably the most fluid mover in this entire class. You love him on those big PA routes behind the LBs for this reason, as well as working side to side. He’s not just a purely linear detachment threat like Dae’Quan Wright though. He has talented hips and has the upside to be more of a matchup answer and substantive receiving threat than many of the others on this list. He additionally tested quite well, and comfortably clears the athletic thresholds to sell you on the reality of all that. He does need some work using his hands in route stems, as defenders jam him up more than he should allow them to. Even big TEs need to clear the hands a bit and get to leverage, but as a Sam LaPorta type finesser he needs to do it even more. That’s very fixable and even shows up sometimes on his tape when he wins.

As a blocker, he’s never going to be good in-line, but it’s absolutely not impossible for him to clear the Sam LaPorta/TJ Hockenson baseline of competence where he isn’t a limitation. Overall by total TE (flex guys included) standards that makes a good blocker, but not he’s not necessarily going to be dominating anything. His technique will need to be elite rather than okay to survive in-line, but he has the raw materials and flashes for that to be enough even if his losses are ugly.

The transfer to Texas wasn’t kind to him. This Texas offense was a pretty disheveled unit despite Arch Manning’s excellence. The OL struggled, the WR core underperformed grossly, and it became difficult to find answers. Endries wasn’t quite as good on tape as he was at Cal either, where he looked like the finish product I mentioned as a 2nd round caliber prospect. He shouldn’t have left, but what hurts him as a securer-of-the-bag helps an NFL that can always use value at TE. You may just get a plus starter who laps a lot of this list if you can bring the vision to light.

Round Grade: 4th

TE9: Dallen Bentley, Utah

Height: 6041

Weight: 253

Arm Length: 3318

40: 4.62

Split: 1.62

Vert: 35

Broad: 910

Bentley is very much more in the Dae’Quan Wright mold of guys I think can give you a solid foundation with more juice as an eligible receiver than you typically get from guys of their style and caliber. Solid starter.

Bentley is a pure complement as a receiver. Not gonna see much big boy route-running, but as a detachable line element he can give you that underneath outlet and run-action threat I mentioned earlier with Wright. I don’t think he has quite the same pop after the catch or the same tightness as a mover, but he is definitely a little slippery and moves well with the ball. The testing he put up is also a nice box checked.

As a blocker, there is actually quite a bit of unknown. Utah entirely abandoned, for good reason, any pretense of spacing the field in 2025. This led to them frequently using an extra lineman as their starting Y, living in a jumbo 12 and 13 personnel. Bentley was on the field all the time, but wasn’t asked to block truly in-line as much as you’d expect. With that said, his 253 at 6’4 is bulky, he’s a visibly strong guy, and he has 33-inch arms. The raw materials are excellent so he will probably end up pretty good. Blocking is very developmental so long as you want to do it and possess the tools.

He’s older and had a late breakout as well, which also puts him a bit behind Wright despite the similar vibe. Overall I think Bentley will have a lot of use and probably start at the Y for a team that doesn’t have a true 2-way guy. Solid guy to have.

Round Grade: 5th

TE10: Tanner Koziol, Houston

Height: 6064

Weight: 247

Arm Length: 3368

40: 4.70

Split: 1.62

Vert: 36.5

Broad: 1002

Koziol has a huge range of outcomes. In a vacuum he’s one of the best pass-catchers in the class at the position. He stands out for his 6’6 frame, which he weaponizes to go above the rim and dominate at the catch point as well.

He’s caught a billion balls since stepping on a college campus, and flashes more variety than you’d expect from someone who looks like a pure and exclusive field-stretching ball-winner. He has some linear smoothness and a bit of shake in the feet as well. The hips aren’t amazing, but they aren’t terrible and he can very much break you off in man coverage.

Despite those positives, there’s a little bit of ungainliness that makes his height stand out in a bad way. This prevents him from being more dominant as a separator

The big issue with him as a prospect is obvious the second you look at him. He’s so unbelievably thin, and despite a lot of trust and usage from the staff, gets totally ragdolled as a blocker. If he can theoretically put about 10-15 pounds onto his wiry build and become serviceable in-line, he’d become one of the better TEs in the NFL if he could maintain his high-end athleticism and separation. The length is elite too, and if he had a bulky enough body, could drive his blocking upside beyond serviceable. That again requires more weight though. Length means little without any force or stability.

That’s a very tough projection at 22 though for a guy who has likely been trying to put on weight for a while. “Just put on 10 pounds” is an incredibly difficult proposition when athleticism must remain the same. That’s something you see in guys before they turn 20-21 and fill out their frames, not typically after. Despite that, I do think he has a shot to be a useful third down and redzone guy regardless a la the current version of Mike Gesicki.

Round Grade: 5th-6th

The Best of the Rest:

Joe Royer, Cincy

I definitely would have been surprised if you’d told me a year ago that I would have Joe Royer outside of the top 10 of his class. That’s not to say I don’t like him or anything, but there’s not enough to definitively love, especially with no testing due to a hamstring. He’s got prototype size at the 6’5, 250 we’ve come to love from so many great TEs over the years.

He’s also been a legitimately productive player in both seasons since transferring out of Ohio State for a chance. He flashes some legitimate detachment skills and playmaking even if he’ll be a Y only guy with even more tantalizing flashes of legit route-running.

As a blocker, his technique needs work but his role was so weird and college-y with his off-ball use that I bet he can really take to it if he has the physicality and ferocity. There’s some softness at times that could just be quick losses on poor technique.

That said, if Royer puts it all together and the athleticism isn’t bad or anything (looks mostly good on tape but not amazing), he could be a legitimately solid starter in this league. I really do like him, i’d be excited if my team drafted him in the 6th or 7th. He’s barely behind Koziol if at all.

Lance Mason, Wisconsin

Man, I was so on board until he ran a generationally horrible 3-cone at 7.45. Now I see why nobody wants to do that shit. Mason’s got a squat, but adequate build at 6’3, 245 with short 31.38-inch arms. The guy’s tape is pretty good honestly. He throttles well in zones, moves fluidly with good hips, has solid quickness, blocks in-line way better than you’d expect with good engagement and technique. I was ready, with solid testing, to put him well in the middle of the top 10 mix.

It’s just not often you get guys who look that diverse and solid as overall route-runners who can block in-line. He was productive at Missouri State before transferring up, leading Wisconsin in receiving despite not doing much in terms of volume. That’s not his fault, they couldn’t throw it at all. Nobody caught passes.

Watch number 86 above and tell me I’m crazy. That said, the testing is just tough. The 4.70 40 isn’t bad or anything, but a 7.45 3-cone is brutal. It doesn’t make sense on tape either, honestly. There are too many questions to plant my flag and a good chance he goes undrafted but…keep an eye on him.

Justin Joly, NC State

This is a tough one because he is the best college football player in this group, but just may not have the right body/level of athleticism to translate. He’s bulked up significantly in the last few seasons to be more sustainable and improve as a blocker, and just doesn’t really have the same wiggle and juice he had at a lower weight when he was a Sophomore at UConn and Junior at NC State.

The blocking definitely has improved, but he still doesn’t have the mass and strength to translate in-line at the NFL level. I think naturally he would sit around 230-235 to maximize his movement as well which is just tough.

He’s really talented player though. He gets fantastic burst when he puts his foot in the ground and breaks, he has awesome ball skills, and is a gifted catcher of the football. He’ll definitely still have a depth role on rosters and he’s an awesome guy. I was with him at UConn for his first year and it’s amazing how much he’s developed and achieved at this position.

An elite college TE without question who has a real chance to make a career as an NFL football player, but he’ll have to be a serious physical and athletic outlier to be a fixture on the field.

Carsen Ryan, BYU

I definitely understand why people like him. He checks a lot of archetypical boxes being 255 at 6’3, running an excellent 3-cone at 6.97, and putting up solid numbers in his last season. I don’t really see the vision here beyond liking the general archetype of what he is.

There’s clearly a reason it took him so long to break out against 19-20 year olds, honestly he’s pretty stiff and doesn’t cover space in a fluid way at all. While he has a little bit of juice for a heavy guy, not necessarily by NFL standards. It’s all just pretty choppy. I think he can be a very solid blocker in time because of how big he is but his short arms show up. I think he’ll be rostered consistently and is draftable but he’s gonna be there for blocking, which isn’t necessarily even that good technique wise.

A Few Thoughts:

John Michael Gyllenborg, Wyoming

Mostly a total hypothetical. In addition to having issues staying healthy, he’s just not that great of a total package overall. That said, he is an unreal athlete in a way that, frustratingly infrequently, will sometimes pop on the screen. The acceleration and explosion he can get out of breaks is unbelievable. He’s got solid size as well even if he is a bit thin.

The issue with him that doesn’t show up in testing (where he unsurprisingly dominated) is that he plays with so little balance. He’s a lot like Thomas Fidone out of Nebraska a year ago in that way, except he just has another geat to him.

He can’t really block either, otherwise he’d be a top 100 prospect on the athleticism alone. He’s a lot like Zack Kuntz from Old Dominion, who was one of the most athletic TEs ever and hasn’t had a single target in the NFL.

We kept waiting for Gyllenborg to break out and he never did. Probably draftable with a luxury pick on testing alone but don’t expect that to be any more than a scratch-off.

Marlin Klein, Michigan

The ultimate mystery box. He was on Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List” and people were very excited about him entering the season. He paid it off immediately with an incredible week one in which he looked to all the world like a first-round TE who had put it all together after being a latecomer to the game of football from Germany. Fluid, quick, controlled, explosive, coordinated, big, all of it. Then he got an ankle injury and looked slow and unathletic the rest of the year.

Definitely draftable if you have a lot of picks, but how much are you willing to bank on one game?

Michael Trigg, Baylor

Yeah no shot here. A contested catch merchant, late breakout who is on his third school (including a dismissal) who lived in a very college-specific off-ball Y role and has no physicality at the point of attack is not a serious prospect. I could see him sticking on rosters as a depth guy if he keeps it together but the player he was in the role he occupied in college doesn’t really exist in the NFL.

I hope you all enjoyed the “12” personnel revolution while it lasted. Make no mistake, 2 TE looks are going to continue to do their job, but it’s all going to get a little more complicated. Before the Super Bowl, James Reber of NFL.com wrote to discuss the season-defining phenomenon of personnel-matching:

“In 2025, the league recognized that offenses were more versatile than defenses with bigger personnel on the field. Offenses used sub packages with fewer than three wide receivers on 41.7% of plays; the average had been below 38% in every one of the prior nine seasons since Next Gen Stats was established in 2016. What's more, sub-package usage increased as the season progressed. In Weeks 1 through 9, the league used heavy sub packages on 38.8% of plays -- a higher rate than what we saw in any other season since at least 2016, but not overly noteworthy. When the NFL averaged 44.5% heavy sub-package usage from Week 10 onward, it became clear we were in the midst of a revolution. The league never used these sub packages on at least 42% of plays in a single one of the 157 weeks of regular-season NFL football from 2016 through 2024. Over the final nine weeks of the 2025 regular season, though, it happened eight times.”

This is a bubble. It’s not real. Mike MacDonald certainly knows it isn’t real, but the rest of the league is yet to catch up. Eventually, the rest of the league will stop treating a “Tight End” as a “Tight End” because of what it says next to their name. Then what?

They’ll run into a wall because there is no real needle-moving difference between a power slot and a move blocker unless that move blocker is a big enough body/serious enough physical threat that they would also be in-line capable. The real advantage will be in how many guys you can credibly put on the line of scrimmage and keep there.

Before long, you will need 2 true TE to either be treated to base defense or seriously outmuscle nickel defense. If teams dare NFL offenses to run it, they need to have the necessary equipment to actually out-heft them. From a matchup view, power nickel and a power-slot TE are equals. It’s not a mismatch. Jalen Pitre vs Dalton Kincaid in the run game is not an advantage for the offense. Eventually, that will be made very clear, and the false “12” personnel jig will be up. You won’t get anything out of it until you figuratively remove those scare-quotes.

Where will that leave a Dalton Kincaid? Does it make him useless? Well, on standard downs and in neutral situations, yeah it does. Wait a second...haven’t we seen this kind of player before? We have.

The Third Down Specialist

The third down specialist, for years, was an institutional essential of your RB stable. While these backs still exist, the coalescence of RB roles has blurred their distinctiveness and reduced their universality. Many backs can and do play all three downs now. At TE, we are seeing this shift in reverse.

Everything I write on this Substack makes some form of mention of the run-pass dynamic at TE. It’s everything that defines the position’s existence…most of the time.

It’s a simple proposition. The Y (in-line) role and F (flex/move) role are different in the passing game, especially on an every-down basis for the latter. There are a series of requirements that take us to the logical conclusion play callers always eventually end up at.

First, you need an in-line TE to add a 6th man to your OL. The math doesn’t work in the run game otherwise. Second, you can’t play a big percentage of snaps at the F (2nd TE or 3rd WR) without being able to flex into a true slot and be a serious threat. Otherwise, you don’t have enough true pass-catchers to lean on the pass. Much more is required of the F in a receiving context in terms of both volume and difficulty of the job. Skim the linked pieces here and here to understand what is so different about those jobs.

So in short, if you need those Y matchups and that TE treatment to be a serious route-runner and threat, but you can’t block in-line, the only situations in which you can toe that line without harming the offense are obvious pass. We’ll talk more about valuation later, but despite the negative tone, this role is indeed useful.

A Study In Three

We’ve talked about the “wide receiver test,” but that is really a proposition for an every-down role. These are the guys on whom you should use high picks or contract money because they are so good they can take the place of a third WR on a full-time basis. What about the guys who can’t do that, but are nonetheless still very good pure receiving Tight Ends? Well…

These TEs can still enjoy the benefits of TE matchups (either a S in man coverage or inside amongst the LBs against zone) without harming the offense. If it’s 3rd and 8, it’s fine if the sole TE stops your run game from being effective. As such, guys like Mike Gesicki, Oronde Gadsden, and Dalton Kincaid become really useful weapons.

When looking only at 11 personnel snaps, the situations in which they are the sole TE and the D doesn’t have the option of treating them like a WR (because there are 3 to deal with), the run/pass breakdown is as follows per the Fantasy Points data suite (and gathered by my friend Ryan Heath because I am dumb and lazy):

Mike Gesicki: 88.34% pass

Oronde Gadsden: 80.42% pass

Dalton Kincaid: 88.07% pass

The data is pretty obvious, they’re pass only guys when playing the true TE spot. When in heavy personnel with these guys at the flex their whole proposition as pass-catchers changes. Kincaid plays less than 50% of total snaps. If he played any more, he’d create diminishing returns with his accompanying schematic limitations. When he does play though, he puts the ball in the bucket. He led all TEs in yards per route run last year at 2.77 (per Sumer Sports) and was sorely missed on passing downs when hurt.

To summarize and repeat: These guys can’t start because they can’t ever be the only TE on the field in a neutral situation. Further, 12 personnel with players like this as the 2nd TE will be increasingly disrespected by defenses and treated like 11. At that point, the only difference will be made by a second big blocker at TE. In neutral situations….

But when you have to pass and you don’t have to care who knows it, these are great guys to have if you don’t have a guy who can beat coverage and block in-line (few do).

Stower Rangers

Let’s get it out of the way. No, Eli Stowers is not TE1, he’s not a contender for TE1, and he should not be a top 70 pick. Don’t use a premium pick on a player who needs to be elite of the elite just to crack an every down role. He came off the field OFTEN at Vanderbilt. He was not even their starter by deployment, Cole Spence was. The blocking is frankly horrific and all of his (very few) in-line blocking reps were sheltered to avoid having him handle the DE. As a move blocker he even struggled despite the lack of needed strength and technique.

Remember, as always, this isn’t about receiving in a vaccuum. If it were, Stowers would indeed be TE1 because he’s the best in the class at it. He is not Brock Bowers or Zach Ertz, at least probably. That said….he is really fucking good at what he does.

(I do TEs for Reception Perception now and I hope you all subscribe to them not just to see my upcoming stuff, but to see all of theirs). Anyway, Stowers was lethal in the middle of the field for Vanderbilt. His feel for zone coverage and ability to work underneath and in the intermediate is terrific and that alone makes him a chain mover as we see with the old-man version of Travis Kelce. He’s an athletic freakshow though, with ridiculous combine testing. He set the vert record for TEs, his broad was insane, and he ran a 4.51.

He’s crisp, rules the middle on in-breakers between zone defenders, can bully DBs off the line on slants, and punish inside leverage on out-breakers. He’s as comfortable creating on explosive move routes like a dig as he is feeling his way into space on static routes like sticks and curls. Unlike Kincaid though he does have a little bit juice after the catch and playmaking spice. This will grant him a few extra snaps as a gadget guy as well.

The reason I struggle to project him as more is the fact that true CBs were pretty effective at locking him down when placed in a true slot or outside role and asked to beat them in his route.

This was very far from the case with Brock Bowers or even Colston Loveland. He’s gonna have to do a lot of work at the Y. The role I see for Stowers is similar to Kincaid in Buffalo. He’s your hired gun.

How do we value such a guy?

- > Probably right about here < -

There’s more of an impact in the passing game than you get from a third down back and not as much as you get on D from a pure closer of a designated pass-rusher. As such, I’d probably value a guy like Kincaid around $7-9M per year against the current cap and would not take him before the 3rd or 4th round. That said, still a really impactful role that will grow in awareness and valuation as the game shifts where it’s shifting.

Stowers and the Third Down TEs (TM) are the guys you bring off the bench for 10 minutes a game just to go 4/6 from three and check back out. They’re the guys who play sheltered third-line minutes just to come out on your first power-play unit and rip lasers from the left circle. Especially for offenses with elite passers, these guys are really useful. The Bengals, Chargers, and Bills are all possess high-volume dropback pass games and have QBs comfortable working the middle of the field when defenses make it most difficult to function. Stowers won’t help a team stay out of D&D trouble…but he can break them out of it.

Free agency is a weird, weird time for Tight Ends. Everywhere else, we discuss the market for months and arrive at sensible values. In general, we know what people should and will get. At Tight End, we can’t even decide on who should lead the market. Unfortunately for a “pass-catching” position, your finances are determined by that. Your usage on the field is determined by much more, but your paycheck reflects how well you can put up raw statistics.

Those statistics may overall represent harm to your offense when factoring in all the hidden scheme costs, but the market isn’t woke to all that (yet?). If you’re smart, TE is your greatest chance to get value for your dollar. If not, the opposite. Kyle Pitts is set to make $15 million after being placed on the tag, which is good for fifth at the position in AAV. Dalton Schultz is making $12 million, and people consider that an overpay (it’s a gross underpay). What a wild arena for discourse.

The secret to winning the TE market is by chasing snaps and completeness and not receiving in isolation. You’ll pay less and get more. The reality is that there are so few solid + in-line blockers who can do ANYTHING in the passing game.

400 yards from someone like that is worth way more than 700 from someone locked in a flex role. Think of it like the difference between 6 sacks from a dominant run-stuffing NT and 9 from a designated rotational edge rusher. If you think of it that way, all of this will make a lot of sense.

There are a lot of names out there, but let’s look at the most important ones. (Value projections per Spotrac).

Not Going Anywhere Else

Travis Kelce (36) Projected Market AAV: $10.8M

He’s either returning to KC or retiring, not worth discussing any other fits. If I had to guess, he’s running it back one last time. I think if he were retiring, he’d have done so already. In addition, he had a nice year an dlooked better than he did the year prior. Why not?

All In

Dallas Goedert

Age: 31

Spotrac Projected Market AAV: $7.6M

Remember The Tight Ends AAV Valuation: $18M

Remember the TE Market TEstimate: 1 year, $14M

Goedert is often hurt, past 30, in a bit of decline, and still somehow remains one of the best players in the world at his position. If we were talking about a multi-year deal with an involved set of guarantees, it’d be a different discussion. For one year, Goedert can inject a skillset into an offense that is exceedingly hard to find. He’s one of the precious few that is a threat at TE and every WR alignment while having plus size and in-line ability. He is a plus on every down, everywhere. He is not far removed from a devastating run as Saquon Barkley’s copilot in the 2024-25 postseason. He took a step back as a blocker a year ago (as the rest of the Eagles did), but given the context it shouldn’t be a big issue. Even if he plays 10-11 games (and in the playoffs hopefully), that on-field value is probably worth about $20-25 million in a vaccuum. Signing him to a 1 year, $10M deal should be no issue for a team with cap space and aspirations. We’ll see if they’re shrewd enough for it, but the Bengals should have this done the second negotiations open and lock in their every down TE. That could result in Goedert finally being unleashed in full.

Best Fits: Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos

Cade Otton

Age: 27

Spotrac Projected Market AAV: $7.9M

Remember The Tight Ends AAV Valuation: $15M

Remember the Tight Ends Market TEstimate: 3 years, $13M

As you know, never needing to come off the field for anything is the ultimate skill at TE. If you can do that, you are a massive value add to your offense simply by removing limitations in how the OC can deploy personnel. Cade Otton has, for THREE years in a row, been the NFL’s snap share king among Tight Ends per Fantasy Points data. The gloveless wonder is a 3 down TE who can detach and catch the ball a little bit for you. With teams paying good money for any TE to block on standard downs, catching optional, there’s a great value here. You never have to worry about the TE position if he’s under contract, I’d pay a more than 8-10 million and change for that. I’d give him multiple years too, and cash-in on the value as the cap continues to rise.

Best Fits: Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccanneers

Buyer Beware

Isaiah Likely

Age: 26

Spotrac Projected Market AAV: $8.8M

Remember The Tight Ends AAV Valuation: $9M

Remember the Tight Ends Market TEstimate: 4 years, $15M

Isaiah Likely definitely has some juice as a playmaker, but unless you’re working with enough to command an every down role without fitting neatly into the TE position, those yards are gonna cost you in options. As flex tight ends get crowded out by power slots, it’s a better move to spend similar money on an every down option like the previous that allows you flexibility to field an even better receiver in the role Likely would occupy. Likely doesn’t play on standard downs without a handcuff to Charlie Kolar or Patric Ricard unless they’re breaking out the QB-read game and isolating the DE the TE would otherwise block. He’s too thin to block in-line without imposing gigantic limitations on the OC, so he’s a move-only guy. In most offenses, he’d be remanded to a 3rd down and 12/13p role and while those groupings are growing in popularity, they’re not all created equal. The bubble will burst when defenses figure out they don’t have to play ball and match with big bodies. Unless you’re committed to a Ravens style of offense, I’d sit this one out, because I don’t want to be on the hook financially for that. I don’t think the Spotrac number is right either, I think he may get something closer to the tag given the buzz.

Best Fits: LA Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders

May Not Work, Worth a Shot

David Njoku

Age: 30

Spotrac Projected Market AAV: $10M

Remember The Tight Ends AAV Valuation: $7.5M

Remember the Tight Ends Market TEstimate: 1 year, $8.5M

David Njoku is behind only Kelce in projected market AAV but has clearly lost more than a step in the last couple of seasons. Despite that, he gives you a baseline of consistent use as a credible in-line blocker. We’ve seen players rediscover old form before, and he isn’t too old to expect that, or even all that old at all. For any team with a ton of cap space, it may be worth a one-year shot to see if you can’t grab a former star on the rebound. I don’t think his market is going to be what people think based on the power of the name.

Best Fits: Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins.

Hidden Gems

Foster Moreau

Age: 29

Spotrac Projected Market AAV: $2.7M

Remember The Tight Ends AAV Valuation: $4.5M

Remember the Tight Ends Market TEstimate: 1 year, $3.5M

Man, things have just never come together for Moreau. After a promising start to his career set him up well for his first FA period. That was derailed by a cancer diagnosis. He returned to form after beating that, but things were once again derailed by a tough ACL injury and recovery. For teams, that has set up a great opportunity at a buy-low. Moreau at his best is a 3-down starter that can give you 300-500 yards, maybe even more if your offense is high-volume in the passing game. For any 11 personnel teams, spending a couple million on an every down starter who, for a 4th target and pure outlet/PA element, is good business.

Best Fits: San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccanneers, Denver Broncos.

Trade Targets

Cole Kmet

Age: 29

Remember The Tight Ends AAV Valuation: $16M

Current deal remaining: 2 years, $11.6 AAV Cap Hit, 3.2M Dead Cap

Every market has a cheat-code move, and for the current TE crop, that’s a possible acquisition of Cole Kmet and his nice contract. Don’t let his modest, reduced receiving production fool you, Kmet is the best he has ever been. Indispensible to the Bears’ success on offense this past year, he locked down the Y role all season.

For an offense that, despite hype and attention on the improved pass game, lived and died on the ground, this was huge. It’s not even so simple as that. Kmet isn’t just a Y who can catch a solid bit like Otton, he can be a legit threat. He’s fluid, he’s smooth, and surprisingly nimble. The guy can run routes.

Combined with Loveland, the Bears actually caught the true positionless 12 personnel dragon everyone is chasing. That is easy to imagine and crazy hard to actualize. They could do everything from it. An every down Y who can catch like this and has finally answered the call as an in-line force is a serious value.

Imagine him on a team like the Bengals where he can bring everything Drew Sample brings as a blocker while being a matchup issue and PA element.

You’ll inherit a contract that’s very digestible, easily cuttable if things go wrong, and probably won’t cost a ton in draft capital. The Bears will transition Loveland into the every-down role at some point like Johnson did previously with LaPorta after his rookie year.

While I think they should let this thing play out and keep the best duo in the league together, they may try to recoup some value while they can. They can use as much cap space and draft capital as possible with a D that needs to be heavily built-up.

He’s a borderline top 10 TE, and I’d be plenty willing to send a 3rd and a 5th and ditch this FA crop entirely if it means 2 years of Cole Kmet.

Best Fits: Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles. Washington Commanders.

TL: DR TE Market Report

SIGN (good player, good value, or both):

-Dallas Goedert

-Cade Otton

-Austin Hooper

-Foster Moreau

-Daniel Bellinger

-Charlie Kolar

-Noah Fant

-Will Dissly

AVOID (limited, overpriced, or both):

-Isaiah Likely

-Chig Okonkwo

-Zach Ertz

-Grant Calcaterra

-Kylen Granson

-Moe Alie-Cox

-Taysom Hill

Hard to blame you if you have the cap space:

-David Njoku

Pretending to negotiate with other teams to get more money from KC:

-Travis Kelce

I’m a bit cursed in that things I say often age poorly, in the short term, in a very visible way. For example, in college, I watched the 2018 AFC Title Game with a bunch of girls from a musical I was in rehearsals with, several of whom I liked. I insisted that there was no way KC was coming back after going down 24-21 with 3:32 left. KC scored in 5 plays. In the end, the inevitable Patriots finished the job, which is what I was really getting at! Regardless, they got their jokes off. A tough scene all around.

I say this because we are on the eve of the NFL Scouting Combine, and the presumptive first TE off the board, Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq, is likely about to break it. 11th on this season’s edition of Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List,” Sadiq is arguably the 2026 combine’s most anticipated raw athlete. That’s not just because he can supposedly vertical at 41.5", which would crush any TE from last season and be the most since Mike Gesicki’s historic workout in 2018.

It’s not just because of his blazing speed, which could push the low 4.5s. It’s all because he may do that at 245 or heavier, which is around the weight entry-point for in-line blocking (provided you aren’t like 6’6 and a lanky 245 like Gesicki). So what’s with the title? He seems great!

Remember the Tight Ends...Remember the Fallen

I’m not necessarily comparing Kenyon Sadiq to these guys. He will be evaluated completely as his own player, and there are very distinct differences that could change the outlook here, but fast, freak-testing TEs are nothing new. Now, high-end test-athleticism is more of a prerequisite to being a great TE than it is at almost any other position, but it is not enough to save you if you don’t have other things, athletic and otherwise, that won’t show up in Indianapolis. The first rounds of drafts are littered, especially since 2010 or so, with the bones of ultra-fast “mismatch” TEs who tricked OCs into thinking that their vegetables do not need to be eaten. Even among those not taken high, the league is full of these types TEs who, despite being useful in a role, (Chig Okonkwo, Jonnu Smith, Evan Engram above, Jordan Reed before them all), return nothing near an investment of first-round capital. So yes, Sadiq is gonna blow up the combine, but that doesn’t mean he is without major question marks.

The instant, smashing success of Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland has evaporated in one year a hesitance that took a decade to build: DON’T DRAFT TIGHT ENDS IN THE FIRST ROUND! While I obviously think that’s nonsense overall, it’s closer to the truth than the alternate extreme. The fact is, a TE with a prospect profile worth taking in the first round is pretty rare, and when they do come about, they aren’t what people think. Guys like Tucker Kraft and Dallas Goedert likely should not have left round one, while Noah Fant and Dalton Kincaid had no business being taken there. Loveland and Warren were no-brainers a year ago because they had no major concerns that would stop them from being long-term, every-down players. If that’s the case with someone, you can’t take them round 1, not at this position.

Kenyon Sadiq interests me. I’m not here to tell you not to like him. I am here to tell you that there is a lot more doubt about him than I would be comfortable with when it comes to the use of my FIRST ROUND pick. No consensus should be formed here. He is simply one strong contender of several for the moniker of TE Draft class valedictorian. Advice to teams: First-round TEs are not something you should try at home. You’d better not have any questions. And I have questions.

Linear Equation

It’s important to remember how TEs work in the passing game. If a WR (or flex TE) can’t separate on a variety of complex routes, they’re not gonna have a lot of value. If a true TE can’t, but is athletic and can simply detach and move, they can. It’s about their presence on the LOS and the core of the formation. Simply put, their defenders have run D assignments inside the box. You have to be in-line to enjoy this on a consistent, every-down basis though, and the lack of variety/contribution to true dropback concepts means you better be pretty damn good in-line to be worth it.

So a lot of the time, your main contribution is on run-action, where the idea is to detach you off the line and get you open with the movement of the play. In that case, all you have to do is be athletic enough that defenders have issues recovering on you spatially after dealing with their run assignment. Separation and complex movement have little to do with it. If you’re going to be that type of guy, you need more than just straight-line speed and quick feet. You need hips and deceleration. Think of this like a car that’s fast, but doesn’t have great shocks. Engaging in a car chase is gonna be a challenge. As an in-line guy, all you have to do is be somewhat smooth/fast and able to take broad turns. Sadiq doesn’t have the shocks to be an elite flex receiver. Maybe for him it’s a matter of being comfortable with complex route-running and gaining muscle memory for a more balanced style, but more often it is not. It’s simply athletic.

If a guy doesn’t have good shocks, sharp changes of direction or stops at high speeds become difficult and imprecise. Efficiency and sharpness into and out of breaks is what gets receivers open, not their speed. Now, many WRs fail bc their shocks suck, but it’s even more of a challenge for TEs given the difference in body mass. Slowing down 240-250 pounds and re-accelerating puts much more force on the hips than 195, and as a result, it is far more difficult. This is why TEs are indeed mostly just linear receivers, and the “WR” type route-running they do is relatively limited even in the cases of elite guys. As a result, Sadiq is not gonna pass the WR test and live in your F role (slot/2nd TE/FB spot) every down. He’s a freak runner and jumper, but he can’t handle a WR’s menu and work nickels or CBs in man coverage.

You can still split guys like this out formationally, but when there are still 3 WR and they’re occupying the Y in the lineup, you can select for when you do this and make sure it never happens against coverages that would require he separate on a CB. You can see a little bit of a slowdown and gather as he gets into the break in the second clip.

If we look at a guy who actually has the athletic profile to be that kind of a rare, offense-carrying receiver at this position, it’s a different game in the complex movement department. There’s no loss of momentum and a real burst out of the break

When you see a lack of refinement in route-running like the above here, look at what their hips are like on other routes. Tyler Warren was unrefined, but he showed a lot of flexibility in the middle as a mover, which tells me it’s a matter of technique and refinement rather than an inability to control momentum. On this corner route, you need Sadiq to stem more vertically and then snap into it, instead of taking a rounded, inefficient break. Rounded breaks like this gradually slow momentum instead of forcing a rapid throttle. If you really put your foot in the ground and break sharply at high-speeds, that energy has to be absorbed at once. He looks fast here, and he is, but he’s easily covered

Nothing rounded here, he retains full control of his movement through the break despite the straight vertical stem forcing him to throttle in a short window. The inefficiency or efficiency herein determines everything about your ability to be consistent as a perimer flex receiver. You don’t need it to be good if you’re a great Y, but if you don’t have those receiver hips, you need to be big, burly, and a great in-line blocker to be worthy of a first-round pick.

Even on this over-sail, which is a well-run route, there’s not enough sink into and explosion out of the break for me. The quick feet and poor defender balance get him open, but the break is fairly upright and doesn’t put a lot of force into the ground. This is not efficient enough to separate in a true slot in the NFL. He is a useful receiver though, so how?

For starters, his linear speed is a great asset in the seams. There’s no margin for LBs to drift back on him as he clears the second level so quickly. Additionally, he is a lot to handle, at that size, for Safeties trying to reroute and match him.

He has light feet as well, so when he hasn’t built up too much speed, he can pretzel you up in the underneath.

The speed and quickness combine to make him a monster after the catch. In many ways, he is a carbon copy of Tucker Kraft as a receiver. Fast and explosive, useful on run-action, and fun to feed on screens and checkdowns. He’s not, however, able to shoulder the bulk of their more complex route tree. That must be left to the WRs. As a result, he must be a monster in-line to make up the value and of course be able to consistently occupy the Y role that shelters him from all of the complex maneuvers his runaway train body lacks the precision to execute. It works for Kraft because he crushes DEs. What about Sadiq?

Tale of Two Bodies

Kenyon Sadiq made a huge impression to start the year. He showed up with a new, rocked-up body and immediately started cracking skulls in the early noncon schedule. Make no mistake about it, Sadiq has an A1 TE mindset.

He is a finisher who will make every effort to bury his opponent long after the play has gone elsewhere, and his excellent technique has clearly been a big focus of his development. The pad-level, attack of the playside shoulder, and drive are teach tape. The issue is that, no matter how much he wants to be, he’s not a reliable in-line blocker. He has huge, huge legs, but a lean upper half that doesn’t quite match. He’s almost a reverse Johnny Bravo

While the legs help you drive, the upper body helps you control. If you don’t control a defender properly, you’re vulnerable to then be stood up and shed, which is a growing problem as NFL defenses target TEs for 2-gapping more and more to attack the weakness on the LOS and win back the numbers they give up by playing light boxes.

Sadiq’s engagement is fine, with the helmet to ear and weight behind him. He wins on leverage and pad-level, but he can’t control the defender, allowing him to recover balance and throw Sadiq aside.

It shows up often against stronger edge defenders, and with a jump in competition to NFL DEs, it’s heavily uncertain whether he will be able to hack it in-line at the level he needs to.

A Mismatched Skillset

There is no question that Sadiq, a dogged, willing blocker who will run in the 4.5s with elite explosiveness and agility, has a shot to be a stud in the NFL. Despite all that, a player who is a Hockenson/LaPorta-type blocker, which he still needs to grow into as he physically matures. That said, he’s not a Hockenson/LaPorta level route-runner/route concept engineer, and he’s not a Tucker Kraft level in-line force. As good as Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland are, and as much as they obviously deserved their first-round selections, the first-round TE should remain rare. Sadiq is a contender for TE1 in this class, but treating him like a Loveland is, in my opinion, an overreaction. If you look at things from a 10,000 foot view, I see why he would be a top-shelf prospect, but I would not use a pick before the 40s on him. This week in Indy, however, his prospect status will be cemented regardless of what I think.

The storylines drip from the walls of the 2025 Seattle Seahawks. A reclaimed top draft pick at QB has found himself after trials that have broken so many in his place, a new alpha WR has skyrocketed to the top of the league, their defense is not only suffocating, but redefining NFL defense for good and ushering the sport into the deep-end of its next era. There’s a lot to talk about before we get to a TE with 519 receiving yards.

While critical to their run game, it still isn’t that good (though that’s not his fault), and it’s not like he’s engineering some wagon unit. It is, however, respected. That’s the key. If Seattle can force defenses into base D and/or force them to load the box, they can’t properly cover JSN or speed up the QB. From there, it becomes easy to just pitch and catch in rhythm or work through simple progressions against unchanging defenses. But wait, if the run game isn’t good, why is it respected? Why do teams do that? Well, they probably shouldn’t, but while the run game struggles due to an only okay OL, there are reasons to respect it. It’s not great, but it’s well-armed.

Big Birds

Most teams decide base vs nickel not based on the entire picture, but based on the nature of the eligible receivers. Everything else is constant, so this is the only difference between packages. If there are 2 TE, and those TE are both huge and dominant physically, it’s easy to see why the league would be slow to answer that with nickel. Again, they SHOULD, but it’s going to take a league-wide paradigm shift that is underway (on Seattle’s own D) but slow. Barner is a devastating blocker, and his ability to swallow defensive ends opens up the OL to be solid on double teams inside and allows them to run into the side of the formation with an extra gap (him). They still can’t run it well, but the quickest path to defeat is being run on, and most teams won’t take the risk. You lose Barner, you lose that.

Well, you lose that PLUS this in the same guy. You could roll 2 pure blockers, they do have them, but at that point base D is no longer much of an issue.

And from there, things get easy. Whether dropback pass or even easier with PA, you cannot be specialized in coverage from base. Whether you play 2 high or single high or whatever you want, it’s going to be basic, your rules limited, and your options for paying special attention to things are nuked. You simply don’t have enough guys who can do enough things in coverage. It’s so easy at that point to just feed an elite WR1, and feed him they do. To take away a guy like JSN, you have to treat him like nobody can cover him in normal circumstances, because they can’t.

The JSN Problem

Priority number 1 for NE if they are going to have any shot in this game is to take Smith-Njigba out of it. I don’t think they have a chance if he’s able to get the ball enough to go, say, 8-150. He’s going to have to be doubled. There’s a good chance they just travel Gonzalez with him and play a bunch of regular man coverage, but I’m not sure that’s the best move for them. It could work if they really connect with a lot of pressure, and I think they’re best off dealing with this from a zone framework with special checks for wherever JSN is aligned to cloud or bracket him, but New England’s zones are fairly simple and static, so practically, they’re best bet is man coverage. New England has always had a staple that helps them kill both birds with one stone.

“Cover 1 double jersey #” is simply Cover 1 where one S is in the post like normal, and the other is added onto the man coverage of the best receiver, with the BEST CB man to man on the 2ND WR. If they’re playing, say “1 double 11,” they’re doubling number 11 and playing regular man elsewhere. The problem is that this uses up both Safeties. In Cover-1, the Safety is usually responsible for the Tight End, now it’s a LB or dime. Whether in nickel (or dime like they are in these drawings), that gives AJ Barner a matchup.

Here is what that looks like in practice. As you can see, both Safeties are occupied. One plays post, one works to double the scary receiver. That’s what Harrison Smith is doing here. You would never run this coverage in base though, as you’d end up with too many LBs in man coverage. If you watch Barner, you can see why that’s bad. With the Nickel on the slot and both Safeties occupied, that’s the only guy left to cover him.

While none of these are the coverage discussed, it is the same positional matchup you’d get in that coverage. The fact of the matter is that they will have to stop JSN on standard downs. If they wait for 3rd and long to do anything special, they will never get there. Either Barner forces them into base and gets JSN the ball by doing so, or he will be there to punish them for getting more creative. Either way, he will impact this game in a big way.

And I’m sure we’ll get a good Barnyard somewhere in there.

While it’s not necessarily an indictment on the broader class because of how few of the top guys went to the All-Star circuit, the TE group at the Senior Bowl was brutal. Of the top handful or so of guys, only Eli Raridon went to an All-Star event, and he went to Shrine, so there wasn’t exactly a lot of meat left on the bone for Mobile. Regardless, we learned some things.

Sam Roush, Stanford

Height: 6’5 5/8″

Weight: 259 pounds

Arm length: 31″

Hand size: 9 3/4″

I don’t think Roush did anything to hurt his position, nor do I think he did much to help it. In his case, that’s fine; the Senior Bowl is not a great setup for a Tight End like him. He’s athletic, but not necessarily a refined negotiator of man-coverage, and I suspect he probably won’t ever be. His measurement was fantastic at 6’6, 260, and a big in-line guy has no need to be a consistent man coverage answer. Physically, he looked like the athlete I hoped he’d show up as, he obviously blocked well as he always will, and there’s every reason to believe he can be useful in the passing game as a run-action threat and quick-game zone beater. In 1v1s, he had major issues disengaging the hands of defenders, which allowed them to influence his routes for the worse. The strength and athleticism won him some, but there wasn’t a ton of skill there. Overall, we should avoid reacting much to his week in either direction, despite this being the first exposure of many to the Stanford star.

Josh Cuevas, Alabama

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 252 pounds

Arm length: 31 1/4″

Hand size: 9 3/8″

Hands-down, Cuevas was the best guy there. He didn’t look like a star or anything, but after a really good weigh-in, he was the best and most natural route-winner by a good amount. His use of hands, detail in setting up defenders, and precise movement stood out among the crowd for sure. He’s not a great in-line blocker, but he took a massive leap from year to year at Alabama and with his size, he may have a chance to develop further. He’s a good Combine away from rising up some boards.

John-Michael Gyllenborg, Wyoming

Height: 6’5 3/8″

Weight: 251 pounds

Arm length: 31 3/8″

Hand size: 9 5/8″

We’re at a place with Gyllenborg where, if it were 2 years ago and he were just getting his feet wet as a college player, we’d be excited. We were there 2 years ago, but it’s not exciting to still be in the same place. He’s struggled a ton as an in-line blocker despite a surprisingly hefty weigh-in, has been beset by injuries to derail development, and is pretty out of control as a route-runner. Despite all of that, he has legitimate TE size and may be a Combine darling. In Mobile, he was more or less the same guy we’ve scouted for the last couple of summers. Fast, but a bull in a china shop running routes, and accordingly, 1v1s were a tough scene despite his physical advantage. Maybe there’s huge upside in there, but the pencils are down now.

Will Kacmarek, Ohio State

Height: 6’5″

Weight: 262 pounds

Arm length: 32 5/8″

Hand size: 9 1/2″

I don’t think anybody’s under any delusions about what he is. He’s there to block, but Kacmarek had a couple of moments in 1v1s that suggest he may not be a total zero as a receiver at the next level. He wasn’t necessarily good, but he had a little bit of success that even a few guys at this event billed for receiving did not. That’s a big W for a guy who will get drafted on blocking alone.

Dan Villari, Syracuse

Height: 6’4″

Weight: 243 pounds

Arm length: 32 1/4″

Hand size: 9 3/4″

Things were ground to a halt by a season-ending injury to his starting QB, but Villari was off to a roaring start for Syracuse this season. Syracuse’s use of TEs, at least in the receiving game, is pretty pro-style, so he did a lot of translatable things on tape. The problem, however, is that he is not big or strong enough to play the position properly and as a seam-stretcher and underneath zone filler, he’d need to be in-line frequently. He struggled far more than I expected in 1v1s, though he had a couple of nice reps in the day 3 redzone period. He had issues playing through contact, beating leverage, and changing direction with control.

DJ Rogers, TCU

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 242 pounds

Arm length: 33 3/4″

Hand size: 9 3/8″

Really rough week. He did not look like an NFL-level athlete, struggled with balance, and was pretty inefficient into and out of breaks. For a guy who is only carrying 242, it was all pretty concerning. Some competitive moments as a blocker, but with the size, that’s a tough sell at the next level, especially since he had issues with anchoring.

Tanner Koziol, Houston

A very uneven week for somebody that the public likes a lot (I am not as favorable). Koziol is long and lanky, almost built like Mike Gesicki, but is not an overwhelming athlete. While he dropped a few jaws going above the rim as he is wont to do, the raw athleticism and precision just did not appear to be there at the level he needs. DBs were often able to take advantage of the lack of control he has over his frame as a mover. As a blocker, he had a couple of moments that were far more competitive and physical than I had expected. He has elite length, so that lends itself to playing in-line, though I just don’t think he has the trunk.

Nate Boerkircher, Texas A&M

Height: 6’4 7/8″

Weight: 247 pounds

Arm length: 32 3/4″

Hand size: 10 1/2″

Boerkircher is an interesting prospect. He has very little production in college as a receiver and is not a great athlete, but he has a little bit of fluidity and flexibility that suggest there may be more in that tank. I thought he’d be a little bigger as a guy who made his living blocking in-line, but the length is solid. Like Koziol, he had some moments at the catch point and like Kacmarek, blocked as you’d expect. Not exactly a threat against man coverage though. and 1v1s were a challenge. Draftable with a good enough Combine for sure.

Justin Joly, NC State

Height: 6’3″

Weight: 251 pounds

Arm length: 33 1/8″

Hand size: 10 1/2″

Joly has put on a ton of weight since his freshman year at UConn. Despite a more natural WR-ish frame, he’s gotten all the way up to 250 at just 6’3, which is legitimate TE mass. The issue is that he appears to struggle to carry it, and looked stiffer and less fluid than he did at a lower weight. This is a tough one, as his natural weight puts him into “slow, stiff WR” territory but a proper positional frame seems to sap his athleticism. At the end of it all too, he’s still not a natural blocker. I think at a lower weight he can find some use in a rotational role, but it’s tough to project a starter here given how he looked at 250.

Matthew Hibner, SMU

Height: 6’4 1/4″

Weight: 239 pounds

Arm length: 32 5/8″

Hand size: 9″

Another size-style mismatch. Hibner moves and runs routes like somebody who is 6’6, 260, but is a really good TE at 6’6, 260. It’s not as simple as whether he moves well or poorly, his movement would work brilliantly at that size but at 6’4 and just 239 pounds, which is just way too slight to function on the LOS against DEs, you’d need much more athleticism. Despite that, he looked better than anybody except Cuevas as a route-runner, and is much more competitive as a blocker than you’d expect in his frame, though the strength issues are clearly there. He understands leverage well, he knows how to break down defenders, but he’ll need an elite combine, and I’m not sure he has the in-game athleticism to make 240 work.

There have been plenty of Tight Ends who are great receivers and can carry their passing games. Those will not go anywhere. There have been plenty of Tight Ends who are an extension of the Offensive Line, bruisers who move Defensive Ends and are the most singularly valuable elements of the run game. Those will not go anywhere. There have been so precious few who are both. That list is tiny, basically just Gronk, Jason Witten, and George Kittle. Others of that type have been productive receivers, like Ben Coates, Dallas Goedert, Tucker Kraft, or Martellus Bennett. Others who can catch the ball at an elite level have been usable in-line blockers, like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, or Antonio Gates. There have again been precious few who are both. Their net value eclipses that of any non-QB on the offensive side of the ball. Those guys are nuclear reactors of offensive production, both direct and indirect. If you think it’s hard to find a Hall of Fame QB, it’s way easier to find one of those than one of these. Every time a unicorn dies, you wonder if you’ll ever see another. Kittle isn’t dead, as he said to Kyle Jusczyck, the Robin to his positionless Batman, in the locker room after his achilles injury, but he’s 32 years old, will likely miss all of next season, and return off an achilles tear at 34. For a guy whose superpowers are based in large part on being so freakishly agile and explosive he shouldn’t exist in his body, that could be a tough path back. Now, medical people online think, especially given his clean tear, that he may be fine, but it’s still a big unknown. He’ll be back, he’ll probably be good, but it’s a strong possibility we’ve seen his time as a unicorn come to an end. Regardless, this is a great opportunity to appreciate what we have.

The Impact

George Kittle, at his peak, is the most valuable non-QB in the NFL on the offensive side of the ball, and arguably overall. I think the loss of him doomed the 49ers this year more than a season-ender to Brock Purdy would have. In my view, it did even more damage than the combined absences of Warner and Bosa. While I’d love to wax poetic, my good friend Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points already did a lot of my work for me

George Kittle is, in many ways, an offensive system fit into one man. He’s both the setup and the knockdown, an independent force that powers everything. The numbers bear this out as well.

While he’s not fully Gronk, Kittle is not far behind, and this is the impact of one of these guys. The absence of Kittle is a one-shot to the vaunted Shanahan 49ers run game. Per Sumer Sports, over a sample of their available data (2022-2025), their run game breaks down as follows:

Kittle

• Attempts: 1,494

• Yards Per Carry: 4.76

• Rushing Success Rate: 43.98%

• EPA/Rush: 0.016

No Kittle

• Attempts: 970

• Yards Per Carry: 3.68

• Rushing Success Rate: 26.80%

• EPA/Rush: -0.066

That’s over a full yard lost per carry, a near-halving of success rate to a level that is genuinely atrocious, and beyond an inversion of overall efficiency. On-off splits are, by rule, statistically loud and often useless, but Kittle’s impact as a blocker is obvious on film and noticed in absentia. It’s no coincidence his midseason return yielded immediate improvement on SNF against the Falcons despite not touching the ball. It’s not just blocking in isolation that impacts the run game. The fact that he can play with multiple other pass-catchers and still be the scariest guy, while also being that blocker, creates run/pass conflict that defenses can’t bridge. The interplay therein too feeds the run game. The 49ers have usually had another TE who can block pretty well, between Ross Dwelley, Charlie Woerner, and now Luke Farrell, but they lose all of the receiving in making that replacement. Any decline in the 49ers’ run game dampens the entire system, which is based on run-pass conflict, dictating looks, and picking at defenses that are frozen into predictable structures by the need to honor the box. Just as all of Kittle’s attributes feed into each other, their absence does too in a system that is layered like a building. Kittle is the foundation of that building.

Despite all of that value, George Kittle ranks 125th in the entire NFL in APY on his contract at $19.1M per, which sits just between L’Jarius Sneed and Tyson Campbell. I think he’d be the most valuable non-QB regardless, but when you factor in the surplus relative to cost, it’s not a contest.

How He Does It

Let’s take a look, to start, at what George Kittle is athletically. He’s 6’4, 250, which is the size of Micah Parsons, and he runs a 4.52, which is faster than Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams. While that’s not impossible to find, it’s the combination of raw strength and out-the-gate acceleration that makes him highly unusual.

If you don’t feel like reading more, all you have to know about George Kittle is that the player in both clips is the same guy. If you do, we can get into more detail.

The Great Hybrid

Think, for starters, about how different an OL and a WR are. For perspective, let’s put it into defensive terms to elucidate how absurd players like Kittle are. There are plenty of DB/LB hybrid types like Jalen Pitre or Kyle Hamilton, but name one guy who plays both DB and as an every-down Defensive End. Name one. Just one, ever. Take as much time as you need. It’ll be a while. That’s essentially what Kittle is. He’s a detachable DE who can rush the edge, defend the run, and play man coverage at DB. The difference is that you don’t usually need the TE in pass protection (though he does that too), so it’s not the same dynamic as taking a body out of coverage on D. None of the theoretical costs of a DE/CB hybrid apply. The value is in the totality. Maybe you have a guy who can catch and another guy who can block, but in a game with 11 players a side, never more and never less, nothing exists in isolation. The downstream value of a guy like this is huge. That’s where the statistical impact of Gronk and Kittle derives from. A yard receiving for them is worth twice the value of a WR or a flex-only Tight End because they preserve your ability to do everything, give you a whole bonus pass-catcher with no cost. While a guy who is serviceable in-line gives you a ton of value as well, a guy who is a true WR/OL hybrid blows all of that out of the water. If you were to quantify their impact in receiving yards by multiplying them by two, imagine how Kittle would be viewed. That’s how you have to view him.

The Shanahan/Kittle System

There’s no question that George Kittle is the defining piece of the Shanahan-49ers era. While Shanahan has proven with other franchises that he can build elite offenses without George Kittle, he has built the 49ers version of his offense in his image, especially in recent years. Describing Kyle Shanahan’s system takes many more words than this, and it has changed even throughout his 49ers tenure, but from a 10,000 foot view, it’s a positionless 2-back wide-zone based offense that uses its ability to run the ball at all times from any grouping to dictate defensive structures. When you can dictate structures, you can attack with specificity and intention, which grants you the ability to pick at sore spots on D and makes life for the QB much, much easier. Shanahan has been able to put up offense without much at QB, as we’ve seen with Jimmy Garoppolo and the very early version of Brock Purdy because of that dynamic. The conjunctive elements of overwhelming run and overwhelming pass is the key to Shanahan. No matter how the NFL has changed, his systems have always been built around the run game. That run game has changed in some ways, and how they’ve built around it has changed, but that broader view has never changed.

It’s not enough to run the ball from a weakened position to keep defenses honest while you’re decked out to pass the ball. Running into “light boxes” doesn’t do anything if your own box is just as light. You have to be built as if you are decked out to run it over and over AND to pass it with the same danger. Full pass game, full run game, all at once. For that, they need 3 guys who can handle a WR load in volume and route repertoire, 2 RB, and an elite in-line TE on the field at the same time. Well, that’s impossible right? You have 5 linemen, 1 QB, 2 WR, an HB, a TE, and then can choose between a 2nd TE, 3rd WR, or a FB right?

Well, yes, but Kittle occupies the role of elite in-line blocker and 3rd WR at the same time, killing two birds with one stone.

In general, there are two things that can supercharge an NFL run game from the perspective of the entire unit. Of course, you need foundationals like a capable OL, but these things are the key servebreakers you need to run the ball in a league this difficult:

1: The threat of the pass. If a team is committing resources to your pass game, they’re in structures that are much easier to run against. But you still need at least a passable blocker in-line at TE for those structures to be attackable.

2: An elite in-line TE. While a good or even passable in-line guy won’t prevent your run game from being good, an elite road grader gives you a ton more beef on the LOS and has downstream impacts by removing limits, freeing up other blockers, and creating a side with essentially a real extra lineman on it.

Kittle adds 100th percentile ability to both buckets. When they want to dial-up pass concepts that require 3 WR, he just goes out as that, because Jusczyck isn’t gonna do that at the F (which in 3 WR is a slot). Again, you generally need 3 WR types to shoulder the bulk of true, spread-out concepts and 2 outlet-type peripheral receivers who are kinda just there to be eligible and good enough to catch a checkdown or pop open on a designer play. The latter are usually the TE and RB, but they use the FB and RB because of Kittle. This also makes play-action, the famed backbone of the Shanahan system, lethal. Unless the D can answer with a DE/DB hybrid, which we’ve established does not exist, Kittle is always putting them behind serve. This all culminated for Shanahan with the 2023 Death Lineup.

Kittle wasn’t the only positionless monster on that unit. He was the most positionless, but he wasn’t the only hybrid. Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey played both true RB and true WR, Kyle Jusczyck, as always, played both TE and true FB, and Kittle played both OL and WR as that 100th percentile everything TE. This was their final form, built in his image, built on his back. They were untouchable, though a lack of an elite QB made them situationally vulnerable when the run was not an option. Even in those situations they were generally good, but overall, this was one of the most unstoppable offenses of all time. Previously, Shanahan’s offenses were defined by big X receivers who could crush the 1v1s created by the run game with all manner of in, out, and vertical breaking routes on PA. In Houston, that was Andre Johnson, and in Atlanta that was Julio Jones. The offenses in SF are all about Kittle’s positionlessness and explosivity. We’ve talked about those abilities, but not as much about what goes into them.

Kittle The Receiver

Kittle’s defining characteristic is the jetpack burst and runaway train explosion he brings as both a route runner and runner after the catch.

In that, you see his primary use, which has always been to stretch the middle of the field and create huge plays. As an in-line element, there’s no way to cover this because any defender covering would need to have an assignment in the run game. In man that’ll be a S, in zones he’ll stretch the area covered by the ILBs. You have to pay special attention to a guy like this in coverage but….you can’t.

That makes him easy to lose in play action. Despite the whole “extra OL” thing creating easy openings for him that, given his talent, become devastating, it’s not like he needs them to create.

Kittle is a nightmare cover for CBs too, even man to man. Especially man to man! The size makes him impossible to impede and the speed/change of direction makes him difficult to close on out of the break.

As any good TE must be, he’s a chain-mover between the hashes too. Despite the speed and mass, there’s a suddenness, maneuverability, nimbleness, and deceleration that makes him a tough a cover in the short area as the long.

Kittle the Lineman

A wide zone system like Shanahan’s requires you be able to run the ball to either side at any time. These sides are separated into the “open side,” which has no TE and the OT is the last guy on the line, and the “closed side,” which has the Y. This applies to all run concepts where the formation isn’t “balanced” with a TE attached to either side. While wide zone blocking on the closed side has less of a physical demand than downhill schemes where you have to win a sumo match, it’s no less important, and sometimes it’s just as physical. When you’re on the frontside of wide zone, you cannot have your movement stopped under any circumstances. If you get stopped or even worse, knocked back, it stops the entire line and creates a pileup that will force the RB to cut back too soon into traffic.

Kittle’s athleticism is great for getting him across face to pin guys inside, but the strength allows him to move guys when they try to set a physical edge and nail him down. The consistently clean perimeter has been a big luxury over the years for Shanahan. If you can hit the edge in wide zone, whether just outside the TE or just inside him, so much of the OL can get away with basically anything and the backside doesn’t have to factor in at all.

If you don’t hit it there, he’s at least allowing the RB to press the edge, take his time, work his progression, and split the defense down the middle.

Whether basing, pinning, or driving the end on downhill schemes like duo, pin/pull, counter, power, or inside zone, they always have an edge there too. They’ll run all of these, it’s as good a grab-bag run game as you’ll ever see.

Depending on how they move the DL, teams can use 3-4 fronts to exploit mismatches against TEs. If they bump one of the DEs over, they can put him head-up on the TE and since in a 3-4, those are more DT body types than EDGE body types, it’s usually a big problem due to the size difference. Not in San Francisco.

Oh and he can 1v1 true EDGE rushers in true pass sets too. Most TEs, even good run blockers, do not have the athleticism, technique, and anchor strength to hold up. While this isn’t often asked it’s more valuable than you could ever imagine in blitz pickup, because it gives you far more flexibility to slide the entire OL. All because they have an extra to spare.

Dear Writers,

I will finish with a plea to those of you in the football space who vote on things. Do right by the game of football. Don’t do right by the game we imagine is played on the stat sheet, don’t do right by the votes and OPINIONS of the past (which is all an All-Pro vote ultimately is); do right by the actual game. I am here to tell you that, whether you thought so previously or not, George Kittle is among the pantheon of the greatest players this game has ever seen. Kittle has been first-team All-Pro just twice, deservedly in 2019 and 2023. He should have also been first-team in 2024 and 2018. In fact, he should have won Offensive Player of the Year in 2018, which went unfairly to Patrick Mahomes despite the entire modern purpose of the award’s existence when he set the record (at the time) for receiving yards for a TE in a single season. Setting such a record while blocking at the level he does makes it a runner-up to Gronk’s 2011 for the greatest seasons the position has ever seen. First-team AP honors went to Travis Kelce, who produced in the pass game at an equal level to Kittle despite an offense with GROSSLY more passing volume/emphasis, while being an active negative to the Chiefs’ nonexistent run game. Kittle’s legacy has been harmed unfairly already by a misunderstanding of this position, and that should be corrected come HOF time. Even if he were to retire right now, there should be zero doubt about his destiny in Canton. Luke Keuchly played just 8 seasons, Calvin Johnson 9, and Aaron Donald 10. If you don’t view George Kittle as one of those players, that’s on you, and I hope I can convince you to reconsider.

Tight Ends are playoff players. The Bears’ offense has lacked down to down consistency in the passing game all year despite their ability to create explosives. While the run game sustained them a bit down to down, this offense’s biggest weakness has been its boom or bust nature. While the QB is still developing consistency, which remains a bit of a challenge for them, They have finally found an answer in the pass-catching room that gives them down-to-down availability and chain-moving consistency. Look at their WR group. DJ Moore is a pure Z who has never been a consistent or versatile volume option, and is frankly in decline. Rome Odunze should, by all accounts, be an alpha-dog X but has himself been unable to be more than a flash-in-the-pan vertical threat. Luther Burden, long-term, I think will be another consistent guy, but needs to keep refining, and Olamide Zaccheus is the right archetype, but is not really that good as anything but a WR4. GMs love playmakers, but volume targets are more important to have because simply put, somebody’s gotta catch all the balls you need to complete to be consistent. With that in mind, it sure is a good thing they drafted Colston Loveland. More specifically, as equally good as Tyler Warren figures to be, he is not that kind of route-runner yet. He’s another playmaker type who slots into the Y, which makes sense for Indy who had Pittman and Downs already, but Chicago would be drowning as they were early in the season without their number 84 hitting his stride. Carrying them to another 4th quarter comeback, all roads in Chicago led to Loveland in their WC round win over Green Bay.

Winning the Neutrals

The most direct path to victory is to run the ball successfully. That way you can just turn around and hand it off over and over and over with no risk of sacks, incompletions, or INTs. The run game has a low operating cost. As a result, the Packers went all out on neutral downs to deny Chicago their best/easiest down to down source of yardage. This was especially true when the Bears would get into 12 or 13 personnel. Not only did they load boxes, but they sent extra rushers to trigger downhill and crowd up the line of scrimmage with bodies. The Bears used plenty of 13 personnel, but GB’s plan was part of the gambit, which was centered around Loveland’s detachability.

They sent the Nickel a lot, or in the first clip, the SAM LB (same thing, just with different position types occupying the role in nickel D vs base D). As a result, they can’t move that guy across the formation if the passing strength (side with more total eligible pass-catching personnel/ability) changes. The idea of these pressures is to blitz both edges and put a bunch of bodies directly into gaps across the entire LOS. The late motion prevents them from adjusting, which forces the WLB, who is the outside 2nd level guy to that side, to carry the deep corner on this scissors combo if they’re playing any kind of man or match coverage. With Loveland, that’s a big mismatch.

The more you trigger downhill as a unit, the more susceptible you are to boots with contraflow routes.

Dropping Back

When the Bears were in an obvious pass situation, or honestly even just in the gun, Green Bay wanted to put a lid on any explosive downfield shots. While these seem harder, it’s more of a challenge for a QB to work through reads and operate on time in the intermediate and underneath than it is to take a deep drop and launch a ball to a mostly predetermined target. As such, the gameplan to stop the passing game centered around a bunch of Cover-2 and some deep, soft Cover-4. Additionally, as we discussed earlier, they do not lack for deep threats, but don’t have much in the intermediate and underneath that can command target after target. Right? Well, they were wrong about that. There wasn’t a ton of disguise or variety in coverage, so things got predictable for Johnson to attack. That started with their staple dropback play which is this post-wheel + bender-OTB sit combination that gives them answers to many coverages. Williams was looking right to the bender-sit combo to attack that MLB in Cover-2, not even bothering to look at the post-wheel, which is better against single-high.

As you can see, the ball was going to Loveland here no matter what. While I think Williams was cheating the read a bit, you can obviously see how much he trusts him. This is the “safety-blanket” cliche made visible in action.

That wasn’t the only bullet in the Cover-2 beating chamber. In Cover-2, whether it’s Tampa-2 or not, the MLB is usually going to open to the passing strength and look toward anything deep middle or intermediate middle from that side. The Bears tag this simple seam to the Y (Loveland here in 11 personnel in a 2-minute situation at the end of 1H) weakside to stretch the WLB. With the Mike’s eyes elsewhere, he is the only guy that can squeeze that void, which is tough with Loveland’s speed. Williams rips it right behind his ear. If you watch Loveland’s feet and positioning in the zone closely, he maximizes the void.

Despite the disguise here, Johnson knew before the snap they’d be in Cover-2 again and dialed up another beater. The idea here, on this deep flood, is for the deepest corner to run off the half-field Safety with the other corner and flat conflicting the CB. CBs are taught to “sink” in Cover-2 and stay between the routes, but you can’t do that with a route of this depth. You already know who this was drawn up for. Loveland takes the right angle out of his break and keeps the CB out of the play, allowing Williams to loft it over.

The only bit of variety we got from GB in their 2-high zones was a very loose, very soft Cover-4. Here, in a true slot role as the strongside number 2 in 12 personnel, Loveland simply runs another deep sail, this time flattening it a bit more because he has to beat the S to the sideline. At this depth, that’s not particularly difficult, but it maximizes the space. It’s the little things. As you can see in all of these clips, the Bears are comfortable doing all of their spread-out, 11 personnel style passing from 12 or even 13 because of Loveland’s versatility. He’s not fully there yet to full-time as a slot substitute, but he’s getting there, even if long-term he likely won’t need to as his blocking develops. The Bears are not likely to win the Super Bowl, but if they do, it’ll all run through number 84.

2025 was a big year for Tight Ends. A position that had become a footnote during the late 2010s has become arguably the hottest topic of discussion this side of the QB position. That’s not a surprise here. The TE position was always destined by nature to be the lightning rod for the new post-spread positionless era. Between talks on “personnel matching” spearheaded by the Seahawks’ use of heavy bodies to throw, incredible profiles on the restoration of the original significance of the position, the Rams diving headfirst into the admirable practice of TE-maxxing, TEs broke NFL defenses this year and led the way in offensive thought. It was also a bit of a bummer at times, with many of our best hampered or outright eliminated from the season by injury including George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, and Brock Bowers. That’s a good 4 of the top 6-7 in the game, so most of the big names that should litter the awards will give way to a bunch of newer names that are also worth celebrating. With that in mind, who are the people who stood out this season?

Most Valuable Player

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

This one is pretty obvious. McBride had a historic season for the Cardinals that, after his previous season, is starting to feel like the norm rather than something exceptional. McBride set the record for most receptions in a single-season at the position, carrying have WR1-level target share of 25.4% per Fantasy Points. Now you’d imagine in that situation that they no receivers, but Michael Wilson enjoyed a breakout and Marvin Harrison Jr can’t get the ball. McBride is undeniably their best regardless of position, and is uncoverable for defenses. You can’t treat a TE like a number 1 receiver in coverage, so no matter what, McBride will continue to eat. Trey McBride has eclipsed 800 yards three seasons in a row and 1100 in the latter two of those. McBride is the man in Arizona, and their next phase will be built around him as he charts a Hall of Fame path.

Most Improved Player

AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks

AJ Barner is a uniquely irreplaceable reason for the offensive success in Seattle this year. While the run game hasn’t been great overall statistically, the presence of Barner and other big TEs/FBs like Eric Saubert and Robbie Outzs in the formation has scared defenses away from playing light against the Seahawks. That has uncaged their passing game. Barner being both a 6th OL and legitimate PA threat, even if he lacks the fluidity to be a true separator in the dropback game, has made him indispensible there. After a promising rookie season, he’s taken a leap. He’s on a great path, and only figures to keep ascending.

Forklift of the Year

Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers

Per Sümer Sports, the on-off splits for the Steelers run game for Darnell Washington are rather stark and clean.

With Darnell Washington:

• Rush Attempts: 269

• EPA per Rush: +0.028

Without Darnell Washington:

• Rush Attempts: 138

• EPA per Rush: -0.028

While on-off splits are quite noisy, the 311-pound giraffe that plays for the Steelers was an electric factory this season. Washington is the only TE in this league that will have a dramatic size *advantage* over every DE he lines up against, and he swallows people whole. The fact that he can rumble and make plays throwing people like the tree from Harry Potter 2 with his blocking impact makes him a legitimate difference-maker. He stands to be the best blocking TE in the NFL for a long time going forward.

I See You, Sorry You Got Fucked Over Player Of the Year

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Tucker Kraft over the first two months of the 2025 season was special. Think about everyhting I just said about AJ Barner but if he were on crack. Before a torn ACL robbed us of the rest of that, Kraft was at or near the top of his position in every receiving category as the focal point of an offense that topped the league. His run game impact, equally important in the build of their offense, was just as elite. There’s no reason to believe he won’t come back just as good, but Kraft’s injury was the first of several eventually (unless they go on a ridiculous run) fatal injuries to a Packers team that held so much promise as a Super Bowl contender. Honorable mentions for this include Dallas Goedert for the disgusting Eagles’ passing game robbing him of the recognition he deserves for how good he is.

Don’t Fall For It Player of the Year

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson had a “breakout” year in 2025, finishing 2nd among all TEs in receiving yardage. That’s a huge red flag for the Saints, and a big reason why they were so awful on offense. They don’t have better options. Johnson is not viable in any in-line capacity so must be hidden and assisted as a blocker, making a real run game in 11 personnel with him nearly impossible and easily defended by just 6 in the box. The receiving production mostly came from being placed in the favorable Y TE spot often. While he got his yards, it comes at a cost of better options at TE or better options at the flex. If he produces like this again, it’s not great for the Saints. Very similar situation to Jonnu Smith a year ago.

He is Actually Good and His Team’s Fans Should Be Excited Instead of Complaining Player Of The Year

Theo Johnson, New York Giants

This is a surprisingly common, unique TE thing in football fan discourse, where the fanbase kinda hates a TE but he’s actually pretty damn good. Dalton Schultz in Houston is another such example, but he has had another FANTASTIC season as one of the NFL’s best at the position. Theo Johnson really took a huge step this year as a receiver, and in a legit 6’6, 265 pound frame, those are hard to find. He’s smooth, explosive, and massive. Finding a TE who can threaten as a receiver while being such a big, serious Y, is a rare thing the Giants should remember to cherish as he continues his development. I don’t care about drops, they are a footnote and not that important in determining what kind of player someone is. Situationally they’re annoying when they happen, but nobody has ever been good or bad entirely because of drops. Ja’Marr Chase drops the ball all the time, I just don’t care, he dropped 7. 7 plays do not make or break a guy, get over it. I mean okay, get on the jugs machine, but it’s a minor thing.

I Don’t Have A Specific Award But You Kicked Ass This Year

Colby Parkinson, LA Rams

The Rams definitely win the award for “Coolest TE Usage” with their construction of 13 personnel into an entire ecosystem. At the bedrock of that though is their definitive starter, Colby Parkinson. The 6’7, 265 pound road-grader is on the field in 11, 12, and 13 all the same, and had abrekout year as a receiver. Given the totality of the product he contributed enormously to, an incredible season.

Best Unit

Chicago Bears

The Bears are probably the NFL’s biggest, most enjoyable surprise of 2025. Ben Johnson has built this offense exactly as it should be, which is exactly what he told Cole Kmet he’d do when he drafted another TE 10th overall. The Bears have built a positionless wagon around their run game and TEs, featuring a 3rd as well in blocker Durham Smythe. Cole Kmet has fit well into his role as the standard down Y, but the star of the show is….

Rookie of the Year

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

Contrary to the seeming, but flawed consensus that has built over the last few weeks, this was razor-thin to me between Loveland and Colts rookie Tyler Warren. Warren was exceptional this year, and despite learning to deal with short arms as a blocker the way Brenton Strange and Charlie Woerner had to, is probably a more stable every-down player than Loveland is right now. With that said, Warren hasn’t gotten far enough as a blocker for that to make the difference. There are still situations in which he comes off or is handcuffed to Mo Alie-Cox as he develops. Loveland is often paired with Cole Kmet for the same reason, but they form the most lethal 12 personnel duo in the league. While Warren was more productive, fits comfortably into a consistent, every-down role, and figures to grow into one of the league’s best at the position, Loveland’s impact as a route-runner is on another level right now. It’s him at the F that makes the Bears positionless and devastating. To track his impact is to understand their entire unit.

The foundation of this entire offense is the heavy personnel run game. They want to get under center and dominate on the ground to force you to load the box, get basic on the back-end, and open up easy, defined strikes in the passing game both on run action and true dropback. Both of those elements work off the run game because Loveland is a true positionless piece.

Above you can see them completely space the field in their true 12 personnel like it’s 11. This is the same grouping of players they ran in the run above against the Vikings. They can empty you out or pack 7 on the line of scrimmage without anybody being ill-equipped in either place. They even roll 2 TE in some serious 2-minute/3rd down situations because they are so comfortable spreading out and throwing from it. More than that, if it’s 4th and 4 and there’s a gun to Ben Johnson’s head, he’s gonna try to get the ball to 84. Rookie or not, he is their guy

Even when they get extra heavy in 13 personnel with Durham Smythe added on, Loveland can do some of the WR things that allow it to play like 12 personnel, which is tough to deal with considering how much they can pack the paint in the run game, and tougher still since that OL has serious teeth.

While this is mostly reserved for obvious pass, when they do get into 11 personnel with him, he is a matchup nightmare on Safeties. They can’t put a S on one of the WRs and in zones, can’t move a CB into any of the LB spots or anything, so he’s feasting on matchups that can’t handle him.

The reason that’s mostly reserved for obvious pass is that he’s got play-strength issues in the run game. I don’t think he’ll ever be a good blocker, but the question for him is whether he can get to the solid-decent level that allow Sam LaPorta and TJ Hockenson to be credible at the Y when needed and not limit the offense.

It’s highly likely the answer to that is yes, as he is competitive, gives a great effort, has good length, just enough size, and is still so young and inexperienced. If LaPorta could do it, I’m sure he can. That’s kinda what he is, a longer, silkier, twitchier Sam LaPorta. His pairing with Johnson is perfect, and will be very fruitful for Chicago for a long time.

Any team with a Heisman-winning QB and multiple draft picks at WR is going to be branded as a passing team. That’s not inaccurate or anything, Indiana throws the ball at a very high level, but a lot of teams with good skill have gotten run out of the higher levels of competition. Indiana is a midwestern football team, and their lines of scrimmage are as physical as any in the country. As we saw Saturday against Alabama, Indiana, despite being in 3 WR almost all of the time, will run the football over and over and over and over if you allow them. It’s the basis of their offense despite where the accolades lie, and there is one man entirely irreplaceable in that operation.

Diamond in the Rough

Tight End Riley Nowakowski, an unheralded transfer from Wisconsin, is not the kind of TE that generates headlines, but Indiana built their run game around him. Nowakowski’s path here is a strange one, because physically, he was built to play Fullback, not TE. He’s only 6’1, but fits a stout 250 pounds into that compact frame. Players built like him has clear and obvious roles in offenses for decades, but when Phil Longo got to Wisconsin and brought the air raid with him, the FB position went extinct Madison. Now, that is a crime against football, Wisconsin ought to have Fullbacks, but Nowakowski had to learn the only other position he could play. Height be damned, he’s been terrific, and Curt Cignetti saw that vision. The fact of the matter is that, because of increased exposure to single blocks, a relative lack of size, and a much bigger drop off in ability between good and bad, the TE is the most singularly impactful part of a run blocking unit. A backup OL may be bad, but he’ll still be 300 or so pounds and physically able to stand up strength wise to his opponent. To be dominant, a TE has to overcome a size disadvantage, usually topping out at 250-260 as their opponents can push 270-280 at DE. Additionally, bad TEs are not even viable physically at the point of attack. It’s not just that they’re bad like a bad OL, they’re not viable. Unfortunately for the OC that doesn’t make them less important, and if a TE has difficult blocking demands, he alone can wreck your run game if he can’t handle them. If he can’t handle them, there’s a ton you can’t do. So how does Indiana take advantage of what they have?

Based and Blockpilled

Indiana is not very fancy, they want to run inside zone downhill. They want two double teams on the interior, they want to push you, and they want to punch straight forward. That leaves the TE 1v1 on the DE by definition. With 4 OL committed to the 2 IDL and 2 ILBs and the 5th on the other DE, you need a 6th line guy. The problem is that these blocks are incredibly difficult. You’re 1v1 with a DL and you don’t have any help. A lot of times, teams will try to split the TE across the formation to give them a running start and make this block easier, but you can start setting fronts based on the TE’s alignment because you know which side the run will start to. Nowakowski is a master of the base block, which is one of the most difficult a TE has to make. When the DE is outside of you and the run is going inside, you won’t be able to get ouside him and wash him down for a bounce lane. Your job though is still to create a bounce lane. As a result, you have to prop that guy out and create a new perimeter inside of you for the RB to penetrate if the interior is clogged. That’s what the base block is designed for. Above is a good example. What makes this so difficult is that you have to anchor and stop their momentum. You don’t get to just usher them on their path or get in the way, you have to stall and move them out against their will. Check out the various stages below.

First you have the alignments. Base blocks can be easy if the DE is standing up or in a wide alignment and rushing upfield. That is not the case here, he is trying to strike, cave, and control Nowakowski. He’s gotta stop that. This DE is LT Overton, and he is no modern woke speed rushing hybrid. He stands 6’5 and weights 278 pounds, he is built like a proper 90s 4-3 DE. He also has the leverage advantage here of being in a 4-point stance on the ground while Nowakowski is standing. The X WR is on the ball so he must be off, which means he must be standing like this.

Next you have the initial strike. Overton doesn’t know if he’s rushing the passer or playing the run, so he can’t just dive into Nowakowski’s midsection and cheat. That said, he still has a lower starting point. Nowakowski is a master of leverage, and this is where his height HELPS him (short king W) as a blocking TE. He sinks the hips, gets way down, and gets UNDER Overton’s shoulders. Look how bent he gets in the midsection. His hands and head are placed well, with the facemask in the shoulder and the hands up under the ribs. I’d rather that inside hand be in the armpit but let’s be honest, you can teach that as a landmark but it’s chaos in there, it’ll happen sometimes, it won’t happen others.

From that underneath leverage, he can forklift with control. When you stand a guy up like this, he is no longer controlling you, you are controlling him, and at that point, you can move him where you need to move him for the run to work.

Nowakowski lifts, extends, and turns him out with enough power to bring him to his knees and finish him.

When the defender wants to stay outside and handfight, he can’t go through, you just have to keep square feet and almost defend him you’re boxing out for a rebound, only reversed.

Pin and Seal

Sometimes, like on perimeter gap scheme plays where pullers lead outside, you have to wash your guy inside no matter what. In those situations, you have to do the same thing in general, just reversed. You have to make sure you capture their playside shoulder, which means getting between them and the ball, and shove them down inside to create a clean lane for the pullers and RB. Once again, you must anchor and hold the line if your guy wants to go through you. If he wants to wash himself down inside out of the play, take him there. Because of their front 6, Indiana can pound you over and over if you try to do anything about their QB and WRs.

Pass Pro

Unlike most guys, even those who are good run blockers, pass pro 1v1 on an end is all good for Nowakowski. Whether protecting boots, picking up pressures, or taking the backside of a slide, he is a big part of why Indiana’s pass game is so hard to speed up. The Hoosiers were blitzed a ton by Alabama in the Rose Bowl, and a lot of them looked like the above with a squeaky clean QB and an opening downfield.

Receiving???

The short answer is that they don’t need him to do much, they have 3 WRs who are stars on the field all the time to handle all the real route running, but he’s got a little bit of juice and slipperiness after the catch that deserves mention. As a screen target and checkdown outlet, he’s a big positive, and that’s all they really need from him. Indiana is on the precipice of history, and they couldn’t do it without 37.

Let’s not revise history; we all thought Kyle Pitts would be doing things like he did Thursday against Tampa Bay on the regular. Should we have? In hindsight, probably not to the degree that we did, but it wasn’t hard to understand, especially in a league that had not yet evolved into the post-spread world. Flex TEs were, at that point, still fine playing in true TE roles, and remember how big the difference is between life as the in-line/solo TE and the flex. The importance of the run/pass dynamic hadn’t resurfaced yet. Pitts, unfortunately, was the victim of a changing NFL that rendered him homeless right? Well, he’s having quite a big year now isn’t he?? Not a bad time for it with his contract expiring. The NFL has a key evaluation to make here, and Pitts’ market will tell us a lot about how the NFL’s view of the position has evolved. It must be stated that it takes only one team, but this process will inform much about the future of both the TE market and, of course, Kyle Pitts the player.

The True Value of a Tight End

In one of the foundational pieces for this Substack, I outlined a methodology to standardize exactly how teams should value Tight Ends in this brave new world. There’s no position with a more difficult value proposition, where a yard gained by one guy can carry more value than a yard gained by another because of not just total skillset, but the very role they can even occupy. Jonnu Smith’s 884 yards a season ago hurt the Miami offense, or at least represented death and decay, while Tucker Kraft’s 704 yards were worth at least twice that total in value. A TE is not necessarily going to be able to slot into your “TE” spot. The total package you bring makes your production real or fake. If you can play in-line seriously and with a full blocking menu, it’s real. If you can’t but can be one of those so freakishly gifted like Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers that you can run a full enough WR route-tree and create a situation where your offense does not miss that 3rd WR (because you need a TE in the real TE spot for the run game, fielding them consistently will cost you that 3rd WR on the field) when it wants to drop back and throw, it’s real. If you cannot slot into one of those two clearly delineated offensive roles, you’re going to come off the field very frequently unless your team doesn’t have better options at WR to do that.

The New Kyle Pitts?

So what’s the state of play with Kyle Pitts? Cameron Jordan called him out when he entered the league with a quote that eulogized the Falcons use of a top 5 pick before anything even happened. “He’s a little light in the ass to be a Tight End…As long as he’s detached from the line and not attached to the line, cuz then I have to detach him from his body.” Well if you’re in 3 WR and have to detach your TE from the line, either by alignment or movement in blocking, you don’t have enough guys on the LOS to run it consistently and defenses can sell out on you. If you detach him and use another TE on the line, by definition you are in 2 TE and have an opportunity cost set by who you remove. I reiterate this because it is *the entire value proposition* of the position. If he’s not a serious blocker of defensive ends, that condition has to be okay all the time or they are, again by definition, a rotational player. With that in mind, what has Pitts been successful with? How is he being used? Let’s paint a picture.

Behind the Numbers

it’s no secret that Kyle Pitts is having his best season in quite some time statistically. Through just 14 games, he already has his second-most productive year with 797 yards on 97 targets. While he likely won’t match his 1,000-yard rookie season, he hasn’t been fed like this in quite some time. Tight End stats, however, do not matter in a vacuum. They require more context than any other position, so it’s important to look at how he is getting the ball to adjudicate if he can fit into one of those real, sustainable roles outlined above. On first glance, it looks like a resounding yes. Pitts is earning a snap share of 87% per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, which is good for fourth in the NFL among TEs. That’s an every-down role. The Falcons use 12 personnel, per Sumer Sports, at 42.79% of early-down snaps (when you have a real choice). This is good for second in the league in such situations behind the Cleveland Browns. So problem solved right? Kyle Pitts’ production is legit and he’s an every-down TE and his juice is worth betting on and and and? Well, not so fast. Frequently lost in the discussion of snaps, volume, and usage is whether or not such a thing is *good.* Think about it, was it really a good sign for Miami last year that Jonnu Smith was eating up a huge percentage of their passing game? Are the Cleveland Browns thriving in the situation where Harold Fannin Jr is leading their team in both receptions and targets? Patrick Mahomes spent much of this season as Kansas City’s leading rusher. That doesn’t mean he should be, or that he is some great running back. When it comes to building a team and allocating high-value assets such as premium picks and salary cap cash, this must be considered. Figuring out the answer to that question is much more difficult than peeking at the data, for that, we must turn on the tape.

How Pitts Gets the Ball

Despite the heavy 12 personnel usage of his offense, Kyle Pitts gets the ball a lot in 11 personnel as a true TE. When the D has 3 WR to account for ahead of you, you get pushed down the hierarchy of defenders in man coverage regardless of alignment. If it’s a zone, you’ll draw easier coverage just by being on the inside (LBs and Safeties rather than CBs and Nickels). As a result, it’s a great way to put up numbers if you’re a good athlete. You don’t need all of the WR complexities of deceleration, efficiency, maneuverability, and deception. You just need to be athletic for a TE. The receiving alone, along that curve, does not matter if you can’t do the foundational things we’ll get to later. He is, however, at least a useful 3rd-down weapon a la Dalton Kincaid.

Because of how well they run the ball overall (thank you Bijan), the Falcons do see a lot of base D in 12 personnel, which gives BOTH TEs the conditions they’d experience in 11 as the singular guy. There’s one fewer DB, so both CBs are occupied by the WRs and once again in man coverage, you get a Safety. In zone underneath, you’ll get in with the LBs. Antoine Winfield is a stud, but very few Safeties have legit man coverage skills, and Pitts is still going to be a mismatch for most of them. Teams will increasingly refuse to play base to 12, which is a big topic of conversation this season, but teams are frankly late to the party. Soon enough in this league, you’re gonna have to FORCE teams into base, and that’ll probably take both TEs being real blockers. You do see the physicality and ability to turn on the jets out of breaks here. Deceleration is an issue, but acceleration is a huge strength.

He also catches a lot of these, as any TE does.

So can Pitts flex out as a WR and leave someone else to play the TE spot? Are the Falcons okay living in 12? Those are different answers in large part due to how gravitational Bijan Robinson has been, but Kyle Pitts can do some things flexed out, but not enough to sustain an every-down role doing it without cutting into your passing menu. His size and acceleration can make him effective off the line against press coverage, but he has too many limitations to line up and win here on a consistent basis, as almost all TEs do. Here, they spin to cover-2 and have to hand him leverage as a result. You can work around limitations when it’s a minimally-used, situationally-selected changeup, but if it’s something defenses are gameplanning around, those limitations will kill the whole thing. This is another aspect of TE “flexing” that people must know. You’ll see it with many guys, but that does not make it a real role. Additionally, the guy aligned over him is a S to show man coverage pre-snap. It’s not the same as it would be if there were 2 TE out there and he took a WRs place. Eventually, defenses will figure out fully that they do not have to treat TEs like TEs if they aren’t big and scary on the line.

Despite the receptions, you can see the movement limitations that will stop Pitts from translating to a full-time WR route menu. He doesn’t bend well enough in the hips to decelerate at a WR level of efficiency. This is not uncommon! It’s in fact why TEs can almost never double as true WRs. From a pass-catching perspective, Pitts is a very good TE who should live normally as the Y and flex when using 12 personnel, the latter of which cannot be a full-time grouping, and there are situations where he probably needs to come off the field. It’s far from a coincidence that Pitts’ production has elevated as the Falcons’ WR room, most significantly in role/usage, Drake London, has grown more injured.

Blocking: The Dictator of Role

Kyle Pitts, to his credit, has bought into his position. He’s done everything right and improved a considerable amount physically in the run game. He’s gotten to a point where he can do some things in-line and occasionally even make a key block like the above. With 11s feet moving and his pad level bad, this is easier than it would be with a DE playing proper run D, but the Falcons know how to pick their matchups for when they expose him as a blocker. There are 2 TEs here and he is in the flex role, but against fronts who use wide-9s or 3-4 structures, the DE/Edge will be outside of whoever that last TE on the line is. These situations will put the F in an on-ball blocking assignment, but those guys tend to be smaller and less physical, and won’t be in 3-point stances with better leverage.

The problem I have projecting this forward is that Cameron Jordan, despite all of Pitts’ improvements and even possible physical gains, lacks the play strength to do this for real.

As a result, he is often limited to a support blocking role. Whether he is in the formation or flexed out, this will often mean he is handling nickels or off-ball LB instead of DEs.

They will often shelter him on the backside of runs when he is “accounting” for the DE as well.

They’ll also shelter him with cracks, splits, and other assisted, not in-line blocks of DEs. So what’s the problem with that? Well, besides the fact that, if he’s the only TE out there, you’re missing a real TE in the run game to access things. You can’t run duo, for instance, without an unassisted TE block on an edge defender against most fronts. Duo is a foundational play, especially when the goal is to punish light boxes. The other problem?

It’s just not a very different role between power slot and flex TE in the run game anymore.

Drake London can handle support in the run game, he can slow down DEs on the backside, he can crack, he can do all the things you’d ask a TE who “doesn’t have to block much, just get in the way and be a receiver” would have to do. You must use your 11 players wisely, you only get 11.

He can separate against DBs on a real WR menu and run many of the routes you need to fill out your passing game. You can have Kyle Pitts and “12 personnel” with Drake London and more of a passing game. As WRs become more like flex TEs, TEs must become more like real TEs. 12 personnel is more valuable than ever, but soon enough defenses are going to wise up to the fact that not all 12 personnel is 12 personnel.

The Market

None of that is to say that Kyle Pitts isn’t a really useful piece. He’s a useful 3rd down TE, and while 12/13 personnel is not much different than it would be with a Drake London in his place, that doesn’t make it useless. Many NFL defenses are still behind on personnel-matching, which has finally become a major topic of discussion this season. So what’s the deal? Why are NFL defenses matching 12 personnel with heavy bodies and base D by rule? Are they just stupid? Yes. Yes they are. Treating players in accordance with their list on a roster and not their actual skillsets is really dumb. Many teams have figured that out, namely the Seahawks and Rams, but many have not. In the next couple of years, they will, and the advantage of flex-only TEs (who again aren’t as good as Brock Bowers and don’t come with any trade-offs) will vanish even further. Even in that league, Pitts will still have his situational uses, but we must consider the financials. The WR Test is not a question of rosterability, but a question of value and high-asset allocation. It’s for top 50 picks and major cap hits, not cheap fliers and late round add-ons. In 2026, the franchise tag for TEs is projected to be set at $15.881 million per OverTheCap, and I would imagine that’s where his market will anchor. While it’s among the lowest positions (tag your elite TEs kids), Kyle Pitts’ aesthetic value outstrips actual value, and his profile is exactly the inverse of one that would get you value on the open market. His receiving production, while proof of his use in an offense, is heavily influenced by the fact that he is now absorbing the targets of both himself and Drake London. If he’s going to be worth a cap hit above $12-13M, he needs to be able to put up huge numbers in a flex role. 600-800 yards in this role is worth, from a unit construction perspective, less than 400 from a quality in-line blocker. The double-whammy is that those guys cost less as well. The Falcons would get more TOTAL value by upgrading on Charlie Woerner with someone who can catch just a tiny bit, rolling with Drake London as their starting F, and taking shots in the draft at guys like Eli Raridon, Oscar Delp, or Dae’Quan Wright for a long-term starter. If they insist on spending money/assets, I’d pay Kyle Pitts $9-12M, given a rising cap, but this market is likely to go where I am not, and I don’t think this production will necessarily follow. Kyle Pitts himself, however, is off the mat. He’s a useful weapon, but not a TE1, though a scant TE market will get him paid like one.

It’s hard to describe somebody who enjoyed, under the previous QB and the offense he needed to function, a WR1 target share as “liberated” but Trey McBride has been allowed to flex entirely new muscle. It’s not the volume of use that has changed for McBride since Jacoby Brissett took over for Kyler Murray at QB, it’s the repertoire.

Real Offense, Real Routes

It’s not necessarily so simple as unlocking the middle of the field. Sure, Kyler Murray couldn’t operate there, and that restricted their dropback pass menu to perimeter quick game and out-breakers, but the use of the middle impacts everything. While their run game has collapsed for multiple reasons, Cardinals OC Drew Petzing can finally design an adult passing menu. Jacoby Brissett isn’t some surgeon, but he can functionally stay on time and hit clear openings. While that doesn’t necessarily give you an elite offense or anything, it does allow you to credibly run and call any concept you want and drop straight back to throw repeatedly. That minimum is a huge boon to OCs relative to the alternative, with guys who can’t execute it at all like Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, or Jalen Hurts. This is not “Remember the QBs”, but it provides important context to understand why Trey McBride’s skillset has been allowed to blossom and how much more it can continue to expand as the season draws to a close. The way they can attack different structures, configure concepts, and create/exploit matchups has totally changed to join the rest of the NFL in normal-ville. McBride’s position-breaking versatility as a pass-catcher, accessible on every down due to credibility as a blocker, gives defenses a lot of problems, especially in man coverage, where matchups are not designed to deal with a player like him.

McBride allows you to run spread concepts even in 3-TE sets like this one, so the Cardinals have experimented a bit more with him at the X now that they can call more things. These 4-strong concepts are a great way to isolate your X receiver backside, with a conflict on the WLB. If he pushes to the 4-man side (or blitzes like he does here), there’s a void where he was. Your X simply needs to win inside position. McBride sells vertically and outside to get the CB turned and moving downfield, only to stop, swim, and box him out with his 245-pound frame.

These designs have been a big favorite of Dallas this year with their physical X. They can be arranged many ways to build around a bullying matchup ace and attack the 2nd-level.

Of course, if they start cheating the CB inside to protect any space, you can tag a speed out. The Jags are sending the WLB again, so the CB’s inside leverage protects the space he vacated. When in light groupings (3 WR) like the above, putting the TE at a WR spot (if he can handle it), will break the man coverage matchups. You’re not going to cover McBride here with a Safety because you’d essentially be asking him to play man coverage as a CB. That’s not going to work with this matchup.

It’s at Y TE in 11 personnel that Trey McBride scares you the most as a receiver, of course. As mentioned earlier, in lighter groupings you still have 3 WR to cover, so while you have a severe matchup issue somewhere else if you need to commit a CB to him when split out, you have a matchup issue with HIM if he is detached to the weakside, split at number 3 to the strongside (3rd receiver from the LOS), or in-line on either side. If you’re playing man coverage in that situation, he’s going to be 1v1 with a Safety, and they probably don’t have the pure man coverage skills to hang with a route-runner this good. The explosive vertical stem and break, paired with the swipe to clear the defender’s attempt to slow him, get him separated despite a leverage disadvantage.

When detached at the 3 (3rd eligible receiver from the sideline), you can clear a void for him to run into by putting the X on a shallow. This will often draw the corner to follow him and create a big patch of open grass behind him. Teams will make checks when a WR is here, but with McBride it’s a normal formation, and that SS may have to carry him step for step. The TE throttles down to sell an in-breaker, which his defender jumps, but he can’t recover in time with how well McBride re-accelerates and gets on his horse. With the 5-man rush, the DIME has to account for the RB if he releases into the flat, so there’s nobody to cut this off deep.

2-Man is a different framework than Cover-1, with man-to-man underneath and split deep Safeties free from man assignments.

This generally puts the CBs on the outside WRs and the Nickel on the slot like Cover-1, but puts the ILBs on the RB and TE respectively. The help is vertical, and does not help you side to side underneath, which is why 2-man is juicy with a separator at TE who can work the ILB to his side like McBride above.

If that TE is at the X, you have the same issue you have in Cover-1. Do you keep your CB there or walk out the defender you’d prefer to assign to that guy. Here, AZ is in 12 personnel, so instead of an ILB, McBride gets a nickel because he’s now in the place of the 3rd WR. With McBride at X, Seattle decides to travel the nickel out of the slot position to match position with position (F with SAM/Nickel). It’s not great asking that guy to play CB in man coverage, even if he does have help deep.

Against zone match coverages (zone assignments, but you relate to and match the men who enter your zone as if man to man) like this fire zone, you have to be crisp and explosive enough to prevent the CB from closing on your breaks, so McBride becomes a weapon on in-breakers and seam benders like this. You can put this route into a ton of concepts. Whether the route is a seam-choice (above) where he reads the coverage to continue straight or bend, or it’s a locked glance (also known as drift/strike) route to punish an off Cover-3 CB, it’s a great pass-concept building block. That efficient sink you see into the break is critical, and where a lot of TEs aren’t going to be able to hack it due to the difficulty of changing direction at high speeds when you’re 240+. Your momentum is harder to corral, and at the end of the day, it’s this, not speed, that keeps most TEs from accessing routes that even mediocre WRs can run better. With a burgeoning actual X in Marvin Harrison Jr and a talented WR2 (well, 3 with McBride included), the Cardinals have serious ingredients to cook a passing game that is very difficult to cover. All they need is a trigger-man who doesn’t cross off most of the menu.

Before we begin, let’s get something out of the way. No, this does not mean Dalton Kincaid is an every-down player, or a good use of a first-round pick, or a wise place to spend significant cap money. He is still just a rotational player because, at the end of the day, he can’t play Tight End in a complete enough way to be more, nor can he full-time on the outer shells of the offense and win WR-matchups. This doesn’t, however, mean that he is useless. As it happens, the Bills are sorely missing the narrow role in which he thrives. The Bills have no answer for quality man coverage whatsoever, none. They have nobody who is an inherently positive matchup against their coverage defender. In obvious passing situations, they are suffocating as a result. Will he alone save them? No, but having one answer can lead to more, and at least get them off the mat. That’s all Josh Allen needs.

3rd and Kincaid

Basic 7-body man coverage works on a hierarchy of matchups among the 5 eligible receivers. First prioritized are the outside WRs, they get true CBs, then the slot, who gets the nickel, then the TE who gets a S, and then the RB who gets a LB, and you have a S free deep and usually an LB free underneath. This is based on getting the most equipped coverage defenders on the most equipped route-runners. Not the most equipped relative to their positions, but the most equipped period. These matchups (mostly) hold when you send 5 or 6 rushers, as you get rid of the free coverage defenders to achieve that. As a result, to get a S in coverage, a TE has to be alone on the field. If there are 2 TE, one of them will simply draw the nickel in the slot’s place (or a CB if they line up outside). The matchup advantage is negated which is why on STANDARD DOWNS, TEs who can catch need to block in-line to get these matchups. They only exist in 11 personnel if you’re the better receiver of your team’s TEs and you can only play TE in 11 personnel if you can block. This does not apply in obvious passing situations because preserving the threat of the run is no longer a consideration.

As a result, teams use their best receiving TE like teams used to use a “3rd down back.” Here, with the externalities of neutral downs removed, Kincaid is a weapon. He’s not good enough to consistently beat nickels like Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce, or the unicorn passers of the WR test, but he’s a matchup nightmare on a S. In Cover-1 and Cover-0, that’s who he will draw, as the CBs/nickel are busy with the true WRs. Before he got hurt, Kincaid was cooking these guys.

Man coverages where both Safeties are kept free are slightly different, but even MORE advantageous. Examples of such coverages include 2-man, in which both are deep and free, bracket quarters, in which the Safeties are involved in the brackets, or 1-robber, seen above, where one Safety is robbing and the other takes the deep middle. In that case, the TE draws a linebacker or the dime if the D has 6 DB on the field like Carolina. That’s even more juicy, and he cooks number 7 on the over. It may not be much, but this is the Bills’ trump card against man on 3rd down, and the inability to match up prevents defenses from leaning on it enough.

Without Kincaid, there is nobody who can win a matchup and get a bucket, and boy, do teams like Houston know it. The 40% or so of snaps that Kincaid does play are sorely missed. Famously, the Bills have become over-reliant on mesh, which is getting ugly but is totally understandable. It’s the only play out there that can answer man coverage without relying on matchup winners while simultaneously giving you multiple answers and not being too gimmicky. There’s a reason air-raid coordinators built empires on it with lesser athletes, but that doesn’t even work in college anymore Even if it did, this is the NFL, and adjustments have long been built into man coverages to deal with the concept. It’s nowhere near ideal to have your 3rd down TE be your only answer to man coverage, but it does give the Bills and their struggling superstar QB the ability to play a game of survival on 3rd down the way Kansas City has over the past couple of years. Mahomes is better than Allen, so he has more rabbits to pull out despite having the same problem. The current version of Kelce, a pure zone-beater now, can no longer athletically separate, even on favorable matchups, the way Kincaid can against man coverage. That said, having Kincaid back in these situations gives him enough to make this functional.

13 Reasons Why (set in Buffalo)

Even if Kincaid doesn’t give you much more blocking than whichever of Shakir, Shavers, or Palmer you’d put in his place, defenses do not respond well right now to 13 personnel, even if they could realize that. Lifting the Rams’ 13P menu of runs, PAP, and simple dropback would be very useful and help them minimize the exposure of their WRs. While Kincaid doesn’t pass the WR test, 13 personnel surfaces and formations can create a situation where the Bills can limit the exposure of their WRs who, unfortunately, fail the all-important “good at NFL football” test. If teams responded to 13 personnel with a flex-only 3rd TE the way they should, the way the Seahawks do by ignoring that guy as a blocker, it’d be different. They, however, do not, and it’d be useful. It’s not a way to live, but it would give the Bills another pitch to throw with some putaway capability. I would use it as often as the Rams do. That snap share should never come even close to full-time, but it may need a little bump. At a minimum, they need that 40% back right now.

The era that came after the spread, the one we’re in right now, is everything this Substack is about. It’s an era of positionlessness and versatility, colored by one simple question: How can we maintain the benefit of weaponry and space without sacrificing any of the size and physicality in the box that makes such a thing difficult to defend? McVay changed both the WR and TE positions forever in answering this question. He’s not the first guy to use WRs as blockers, but he is the first to institutionalize it like this, substituting them fully for Fullbacks and “move” TEs.

With guys like Kupp, Woods, and now Nacua, McVay invented the “WR Test,” changing the opportunity cost proposition of sacrificing a bit of range and pass-catching for a flex-only TE, which no longer has much value down to down if a real WR can do the same job. The long and short of it though is that McVay has, throughout his time at HC, chased positionlessness. The theme of his offenses has always been to do everything from the same things and make everything look the same. Do everything from the same groupings, same formations, off the same motions, and tie it all together so that the D is always as stripped down, basic, and honest as possible in a desperate attempt to account for it all at once without combusting. Whether it’s 12 like the Ravens or Raiders, 21 like the 49ers, or 11 like the Rams (and Lions again, and 49ers again, and Eagles), offenses have run headlong away from ever being pigeonholed. Whether you live in one grouping like McVay once did, or you run several like Shanahan, you are never putting yourself in a position where you can’t both space the field and tighten up to pound the rock at the same time. Everything you need to know about modern schematic reality of the NFL can be found in the following sentence. If you get run on, you’re dead, but if the defense is afraid of the run, it’s easy to pass. The fact is, you have to pick your poison far too often unless you can break serve somehow and defend the run while “selling out” to the pass. Enter McVay’s evil twin and division rival, Mike MacDonald.

Everything you just read about McVay has a defensive mirror. The hybrid guys fast enough to play in space (in earnest, not as typical big body types) but physical enough to play in the box, the ability to live in the same groupings, the making everything look the same, and the ability to have resources in the passing game with sufficiency in the run game…that’s MacDonald’s defense, and innovative defenses like it.

The Ravens are in nickel here but have the option to adjust and create a true 3-4 base-like 5-2 box (5 on LOS, 2 off-ball) when they motion out of 4-wide because of the Nacua-esque positionlessness of DB Kyle Hamilton. Like Nacua, he can get in the shit and throw his weight around against a TE or power slot, and can be trusted to play both nickel and hybrid OLB at the same time. You never have to leave nickel like this. Staying in nickel will always be the ideal for defenses, as getting hit with the pass hurts you dearly, and you want to eliminate the highest of damages first.

This has been a hot topic lately, but has been brewing for several years now. As Greg Olsen has emphasized these last few weeks, defenses can’t afford to simply match multiple TEs with big-bodied base defense the way they are used to doing as offenses are simply able to pass too well from it now. Maybe they can’t do it *every play* unless that 2nd TE can moonlight at WR and give you that element, but boy can they sure do enough to shred you, as ironically, Mike MacDonald’s own Seattle offense has proven. Sean McVay has wanted a little bit of that action too, and in chasing base looks and loaded boxes, he has developed a filthy new putaway pitch off of his fastball. Additionally, the LAR defenses have always been a cradle of innovation themselves. All of this comes to a head Sunday in what is both a bell-weather game for the landscape of NFC contenders and one that will give us a fascinating look at where the positionless revolution is truly at, and maybe even where it’s going. You won’t believe this, but all of that starts, on both sides, with the Tight Ends.

13 Reasons Why

While McVay is still able to run his full offense successfully from 11 personnel, the fact of the matter is that it’s hard to get defenses to commit fully to the run with big bodies and guys in the box without big bodies of his own. Again, they don’t *need* to do this to do everything they need to, but it can get difficult to create big chunks without defenses playing heavy. The Rams have killed teams with their new pitch, averaging a ridiculous 0.63 EPA/Pass from 3 TE per Sumer Sports, and it’s become their main conduit for explosive plays. Now that’s obviously in part because of the sheltered sample and selective use (16% and some change), but it is very real. It all starts on the line of scrimmage.

You simply can’t just let a team run the football through chasms for 8 yards a pop and expect to ever win a game, so soundness in accounting for gaps on the LOS is a foundational element, at least outside of obvious pass situations. The more bodies attached to the line, the more gaps you have to deal with. The bigger those bodies, the more seriously you must take those gaps. It’s very hard to justify having only 6 big bodies (DL and LB), which you have in nickel personnel, to deal with all of these linemen, so you truly do have to get into base against it, as much as guys like MacDonald will try to play nickel to everything as I outlined above. Admittedly though, I am fascinated to see if he tries, more on that in a little bit. But in general, it’s hard to deal with this from light bodies. It’s additionally difficult to not involve a S in the run fit somehow as well. There are 9 gaps on the LOS if 3 TE are attached, there are just 7 if there is only 1. Because of that, a lot of times you’ll need to walk a LB down to the LOS (if you’re smart at least, the 49ers don’t do that here and as a result have 2 huge bubbles on the edge to the 2 TE side outside of 47). This makes you usually need to bring a S down at some point whether pre snap or after. The offense knows that. Regardless of the particulars, what you need to know is that DCs need to be very concerned about the LOS and the box when shit looks like this, especially when all 3 TEs are 6’4+, 250+, and 2 of them are mauling in-line blockers (Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen)

Make no mistake, the Rams will use their 3 TE grouping for it’s God-intended purpose. You can especially see the issue on the bottom with the perimeter. If they keep that EDGE outside either of the TEs to that side, there’s a chasm inside, no good either way. If you want to stay in 2-high against these looks, that’s the issue you create for yourself. You need another guy on the LOS, which means you need another guy to replace him on the 2nd level.

Well that’s not good now is it?

Oh well uhoh we just wanted to stop the run we weren’t prepared for all that?? Well that’s a tough one! Parkinson, Allen, and Higbee do just enough as receivers to get out there, but Terrance Ferguson and whichever WR remains in the game between Nacua and Adams are the stars of the 13 personnel show. The fluidity and explosiveness of Ferguson gives them the ability to space the field seriously enough from 3 TE. Because defenses have to deal with that line of scrimmage, this stuff becomes incredibly chunky for McVay.

Even in nickel and 2-high it can still be hard to stop because the designs are so good, the QB is so good, and Adams/Nacua are so good. 3 TE and they’re able to get 5 out into the route concept with 3 stretching the field.

The multiplicity gives them flexibility at the line as well. Once SF tips the pressure from the S, Stafford cans the play into their 2nd call, which gets them into 3 wide and into their full, straight dropback menu to spread the field. The route trees of these guys, even Ferguson, are too limited to *live in* 13 personnel, but when they’re in it, the interplay between the LOS and space is too much for defenses to cover at once with any degree of specificity. So what is MacDonald gonna do?

As my friend @ fball_insights pointed out, he’s gonna try to maintain his multiplicity against the pass, which ironically, defenses have not done against his own Seahawk offense….to their ruin.

To Base or Not to Base

Remember, this whole current wave of “personnel matching” discourse wasn’t about the Rams offense, it was about Seattle’s. After all sure, the Seahawks are playing a ton of heavy bodies in 12 (and some 21) personnel, condensing the formation, getting under center, and presenting the run, but they suck at it while their pass game is shredding teams. They’re 2nd in EPA/Pass and 29th in EPA/Rush, they suck on the ground and rule through the air, so what gives? Why are teams playing SO MUCH base defense, loading the box, and getting shredded? While I do think teams need to take a page from the Seahawks own HC and not do this, it’s not so simple. As it happens, those diametrically opposed EPA figures are directly related.

As we just established, teams are often selling out to the SEA run game. It’s not a superunit like the Lions have been that can run against anything, so yeah it’s gonna struggle, but that doesn’t mean it’s not doing its job. We haven’t really seen it stress-tested by a good, hyper-modern unit (enter Chris Shula, fascinated to see what he goes with), but this run game has good bones. Their fundamentals on the OL are good, they use heavy bodies. so there are extra gaps and difficult to fit surfaces, and Kubiak designs/tags it very well around their base play, which is wide zone. Does it actually suck? Or does it suck because teams are selling out to it? Does it suck because it doesn’t suck? I genuinely can’t wait to find out, but with fundamentals like they have and a stud TE in AJ Barner ruling the edges, I bet it’s good enough to bite at your ankles and keep them ahead of the sticks if you sell out against the pass.

…Which you need to do, because the Seahawks are torching teams in the run action game from the same looks they #establishit from. They’re just destroying them for huge chunks over and over and over.

They are comfortable running their full dropback menu from 12 as well, aligning guys like Arroyo, Kupp, and JSN all over the field. If they had a better 3rd WR they’d probably get into that more, but Arroyo’s 250+ in the run game, even if his blocking role is sheltered, is worth a bit more in creating conflict than Jake Bobo who isn’t much better of a pass-catcher. When he’s in though, he gives you some pop in the run game so 11 isn’t much friendlier for defenses. Darnold and JSN, as you see in the first of those clips, are playing too well to be given static looks, heavy defenses, and loaded boxes. So defenses have to make a change, this isn’t survivable even though inviting the run is probably not as clear a solution as people think right now. Nickel and 2-high is probably your best bet to survive.

AJ Barner will be the D’s central problem if they get into light boxes. in addition to being a dangerous receiver on PA if they’re in heavy boxes. The conflict is on the edge when you play nickel and 2-high just because you don’t have enough big bodies to deal with both the interior gaps and the C and D gaps unless you can 2-gap the TE like below.

Against a guy as physical as Barner, if you want to do that, you’re going to need a DE with some serious heft and violence (like Jared Verse). If you can 2-gap the TE, it frees up a body to stay in space and covers the nickel up a little bit at the POA, even if he does have to take on the OTHER TE. It just gives everyone a little bit more cover and insulation. It’s required if you want to defend space against heavy looks without getting torched on the ground. The above clips are in 11, so it’s less pronounced, but it holds true all the same. Additionally as we saw all the way at the beginning in that Kyle Hamilton clip, you need versatility, physicality, and tackling out of your nickel. The way power slots must stand in for 2nd TEs to play spread groupings honestly on offense, power slot defenders must stand in for LBs if you want to play nickel honestly against heavy groupings.

The Chessmatch

Line up the pieces, start the clocks, the game is on. What will these coordinators do? We will see the offenses continue to do what they’ve been doing of course, but how will the D respond? I think when Seattle is on D, they’re gonna do what they do, they’re gonna play big nickel to everything with rookie S Nick Emmanwori, probably even 13 personnel excluding shorter yardage. I expect a lot of coverage mixing. I don’t think that MacDonald is going to feel comfortable targeting a coverage framework because Stafford and McVay are too good. If they know they’re getting Cover-2 or Cover-4, they will have answers in the pass game no matter what. Predictability eliminates the need to even bother with the run because they have answers in the passing game. It’s when coverages get unpredictable that you want to make defenses honest. One snap it’ll be 4, one snap it’ll be 6, one snap it’ll be 2, all from the same presentations, they’ll try to throw the book. From there, I think the Rams will try to pound the rock, which will determine how things go for them on offense. If they can do it and force the Seahawks to be honest against the run, they will have them in checkmate on that side of the ball. If they can’t, they still have hope, because Stafford can survey the field, get through progressions, and find answers no matter what the coverage is, provided the protection holds up. The Rams can call off the set, give him the ball, and put routes out there to answer different things. It requires a lot of post-snap legwork, but Stafford can do it, he has before this year under such conditions. Most teams don’t have that kind of pocket operator. The Seahawks are probably one of those teams that don’t, as well as Darnold has played, that is a whole different beast of difficulty than shredding the loaded boxes that they have. I think the Rams will do something similar, especially considering their coverage unit could use the support dealing with JSN, who can’t be left 1v1 without doing enormous damage (which has been the situation for him often this year because of the loaded boxes). To cloud or double a WR1, you need both Safeties out. One to double, one to play deep if they’re simply doubling him by jersey number, or both to play regular Cover-2/6 or bracket quarters to get 2 on JSN in a zone framework. I imagine this will be the game Seattle gets stress-tested on the ground. Maybe it won’t be, but if it is, let’s see how it goes, it’ll determine the rest of their season. The first battle for the NFC West, NFC writ large, and the future of our game is almost here.

Tyler Warren has made our view of the rest of his class a bit unfair. Early production at TE is not exactly the norm, as adjustment to the league needs to be made both as an OL and as a receiver to make it as a starter. Tucker Kraft did essentially nothing for the first 2/3 of his rookie season, Trey McBride had 265 yards in 16 games in his rookie year. It’s a production-sensitive position, and negative early returns on a guy are fairly insignificant. A lot of times, early production will come from pure pass catchers in rotational roles on teams forced to pass a bunch, but Loveland is not in a situation conducive to early splashes. With a low-volume, boom-or-bust offense necessitated by a QB who struggles in structure, it’s hard for a TE to find the ball, especially as he’s getting his feet wet. Loveland made a big entrance in their win against Cincinnati on Sunday, going for 118 yards on 6 receptions and 2 TDs, including a highlight-reel game winner. We saw that the route-running beloved by scouts has translated, and he’ll have at least *some* role as a contributor in this league. The extent of that is TBD, but you should feel free to be excited by the possibilities.

The most eye-opening part of Loveland’s game Sunday was his work out wide. The Bengals are a team that, in many of their coverages, will still have a heavy man-man element. Even though many of these snaps take place in 11 personnel, that means he’ll still get matched up on a true CB which was often DJ Turner, a breakout cover guy often leaned on to man up in a variety of coverages. Loveland gave him fits, here using his size to create separation on this glance after a hard stem to build up momentum.

Here on the outside of quarters, Turner has his guy 1v1 if he heads vertically. Since he’s a TE, Turner was a bit lazier gaining depth than he’d normally be and got caught off-guard by how easily Loveland ate the cushion and got on top of him. Turner’s superior speed allows him to close, but Loveland doesn’t deal with the typical TE problem of not having enough burst to sell vertically, which will open things up for him on in-breakers and out-breakers even at these WR alignments.

In 13 personnel like this (really 13 jumbo with an extra OL at TE), Loveland is not just in a WR alignment, but a WR role, as there is only 1 true WR to account for before him. On these deep dagger concepts on PA, the dig is what you’re trying to hit, so it says a lot about Ben Johnson’s view of the player to make him the primary on this. It’s a big advantage to make a defense match ultra heavy personnel while having one of those big bodies available for this. The Bengals are in Cover-3 this time (as you’d expect given the box they have to align to), but Turner isn’t cheating shallow in his turn and finds it very difficult to close on the break because of how efficiently Loveland sinks into it and how explosively he accelerates out of it.

In the run game he continues to be sheltered, which is why he isn’t a full-time player or starter overall, especially when Cole Kmet is available. He’s still mainly used as an extra guy to assist the Y or a move blocker.

He has, however, gotten more exposure in-line little by little. When running outside zone against a team that will always keep their DEs in a 5 tech like this (outside Tackle, between TE and T), you won’t worry much about the TE having to handle that guy 1v1 since he’s inside, but he does a nice job with his technique helping on the double and climbing.

Here they ask him to make a big boy block though and it doesn’t go particularly well. He’s late into his strike, gets caught with his hands down, and can’t get them placed which allows the defender to control. It’s not surprising to see him struggle here, almost any rookie TE will, but it is good to see them asking more and more. If they develop it, it should come and after the job they did with Sam LaPorta (who is now an every-down guy), I’m hopeful. There’s also the remote chance, given his capability, he develops so well as a receiver he can full-time as a flex guy (WR test), but that’s always a rarity. It’s worth mentioning though, because his talent and upside are off the charts. It’s nice to see it progressing well.

The Green Bay Packers’ passing game is elite, the Green Bay Packers’ run game is very good, and the Green Bay Packers overall possess a unit that, statistically, is one of the best in the NFL. It is also deeply, deeply flawed. Looking beneath the surface, you see an offense that, despite a QB who is indeed quite good, is a broken one made whole and held together a bit by gorilla glue and some craftwork, actually, Kraftwork.

Beneath the Numbers

Look at any metric, it will tell you that the Packers offense kicks ass. Per Sumer Sports, they are 2nd in EPA/Play and 4th in Success Rate. They sit atop the league at a whopping 0.31 EPA/Dropback and a very respectable 12th at 0.01 EPA/Rush, which, adjusted for the conditions their run game often faces, is fantastic. Their offense is a wagon, there’s no denying it. You can question their ability to produce in adverse situations come playoff time due to things I will lay out, but you can’t deny that they are insanely productive and good. I will ask you something though... Doesn’t it all just feel….off? Does it truly feel like an elite offense? Do you feel the same way watching them that you do the Colts right now? Or any buzzing Shanahan 49ers unit from the past decade? Or the Bills? The answer is probably no, and you’re very perceptive.

There is a lot missing from this unit!

Please allow me to put these numbers in proper context, explain the causes and how these numbers come to be for them, and explain why Tucker Kraft is the NFL’s overwhelming midway Offensive Player of the Year, and honestly, the non-QB MVP of the 2025 season to date.

Missing Building Material

The offense that is currently the most efficient in the NFL at passing the football and second most efficient overall, has enormous, gaping holes in it. To understand what they are, you have to understand how the Packers are built both from a personnel perspective and schematically in response to that. The bottom line is that there is virtually o intermediate dropback element to this offense. Period, end of story, none. That’s really hard to manage.

Passing games are generally boiled into your true dropback game, PAP, and movement (boots). Within true dropback, you have your 3 step, 5 step, and 7 step menus. While some OCs organize it by concept instead of outright sorting their playbooks by depth/timing the way the Shanahan boys do, you CAN sort it that way if you want because they are broadly distinct ways of attacking. The labeling on the QB can be confusing, but in general, these sections of the Shanahan pass game denote the general distance and timing you’re trying to work with.

To get a sense of your standard 3-step concepts, think real quick hitters like a slant/flat, curl/flat, double slant, stick, stuff like that. The QB is getting the ball out real quick here and you’re trying to hit it fast.

For 5-step concepts, think a hi-lo, choice, drive, mesh, something generally that is going to attack both the intermediate and underneath. Usually, this is the meat of your dropback pass game and most of what you live on. You need a bit more time here. While you may end up hitting underneath, things develop a bit longer and usually have an intermediate element of sorts. 5-step is where having a consistent, versatile, down to down option that can play the slot is so important for an offense to have to reliably put up numbers and find answers. You generally have to have answers here if you want to avoid being boom or bust as an O.

7-step is designed to attack downfield. Think things like 989 (go routes outside, deep seam-bender inside), dagger with a dig at 20-25 yards, deep comebacks, things like that. Because of how long the routes at the front of the progression take to develop, the QB needs to take a deep drop and let it unfold. This is a good way to attack when you get 1v1s outside, as you can use your WRs to really sell vertically and comeback for huge chunks, or they can just hit vertically. Despite how this play is drawn, you’re often using 7 guys in the protection and leaving the RB and TE in to either chip and release as checkdowns or outright staying in the whole time. Do you guys remember the food pyramid from the 2000s?

Let’s translate this into the breakdown of a typical, balanced, sustainable passing game. 5-step dropback is your grains, it’s the backbone of what you do generally and the bulk of your concepts. Vegetables and Fruits are your PA and Movement (again play-fake boots, sprint-outs, stuff like that). Proteins and dairy are your 3-step, screens, and RPOs, which I put under the same umbrella of quickness and having no true downfield element at all. The fats and sugars are your 7-step dropback and true shot plays, even those on PA. A lot of PA in the vegetable bucket may have a deep element, but these are your plays that are really greased up to be thrown deep when you really want to take a shot shot. Intent matters in drawing that distinction, the rest can be sorted by concepts and timing. You can switch which of standard PA and quick game are your fruits/vegetables and which are your proteins, but in general this is how you’re gonna construct a passing game that has enough answers and counterpunches.

If we look at Green Bay, they are HEAVILY dependent on 7-step, it’s a grossly disproportionate amount of their offense. It’s a great thing to be good at, but it’s really low percentage so *dependence* is a tough way to live. They use a fair amount of deep drop play-pass as well, but it’s pretty similar to what they do on 7-step concept wise. It’s not that they don’t use any of the 5-step stuff I outlined earlier, they just are really not good at it and don’t use it very often. 7-step is the grains of the diet in GB. It makes sense with their roster. Their best WRs are vertical threats with Christian Watson being a home run hitter over the top and Romeo Doubs being useful on things like comebacks, deep digs, blaze outs, and other longer developing routes he can sell vertically and snap off. Matthew Golden has been inconsistent, but this is his best repertoire too. This is great. Love can throw deep, guys can get open deep, they can create explosives, good for you. I do have a couple of quick rhetorical questions about this offense though that we will answer in a moment:

How do they stop defenses from selling out against it? How do they live down to down between chunks??

I have an answer.

It Runs Through Tucker Kraft, All of It

Now that we know how the Packers hit home runs, and they LIVE on home runs, we have to figure out how they avoid being Joey Gallo, hit singles and doubles, and keep their average and OBP respectably high to compliment their power and maintain a high football OPS. It starts on the ground. The Packers’ run game is not like the Colts, Ravens, or Eagles where they’re liable to both be efficient and gash you for huge chunks, they don’t hit many of their home runs on the ground. Their run game is designed to compliment their vertical pass game and optimized to punish light boxes. They are a duo based team, and while it’s one of the least explosive run plays there is, the extra perimeter gaps it relies on formationally and the quickness at which it hits make it a bitch to fit without a S in the box.

In order to make the numbers back and control that perimeter, you are probably going to need to 2-gap, or at the very least beat up on, the TE. Tucker Kraft makes that, as you see above with Bengals DE Joseph Ossai, very very difficult. The Packers interior OL is not as good as it needs to be to dominate in the run game, but this kind of perimeter presence takes a lot of load off them both in the numbers and by where they can run it. You have to close the C gap and you have to close the perimeter to stop duo.

You can try to have the ILB shade over to help like 44 does here after that last play, but without adding a body to the box you’re just creating another hole to plug another, and the play is designed for the RB to read off that guy so he’s gonna find it. You generally are gonna need that S come down into the fit or it’s going to be difficult for you.

Even that may not be enough, especially when they bring a 2nd TE with him to create that extra heavy perimeter. Imagine if 27 were at 10 yards getting blocked in space instead of in the box engaging at the point of attack??

It’s not just duo. The Packers mix in a fair bit of wide zone and counter, especially behind Kraft on the Y side. The fact is, you are going to get punished if you leave your Safeties out of the box and especially so if they’re out of the run fit entirely. That makes doing the things it takes to deny their downfield passing game, like playing a bunch of Cover-2, bracket, and 2-man, for instance, quite costly. If you let them like that, they will hit single after single after single behind Kraft in the run game. That’s still not enough though. Where are the doubles? That’s what the intermediate is usually for. Their passing game can’t all be 7-step and deeper PA can it?

Well it’s not, the Packers are very willing to use true 3-step quick game, and it’s one of their best ways to get Kraft (and Jayden Reed when he’s in the lineup) the ball, where he does this a lot. Whether it’s stick routes like these or stationary underneath zone-beating routes, Kraft is their best quick game receiver right now.

They also throw him a lot of screens, which he also turns into gashes pretty regularly.

They’ll detach him on run-action off of a duo presentation as a constraint, which is dangerous considering how deadly serious you have to take him as a real blocker when it looks like this.

Circling all the way back to their 7-step game, Kraft is no passenger here. While he’s not as much of a factor in the dropback game downfield (very useful on 2nd level pops, sails, and overs on PA) beyond the occasional hit in the seams on 4 verts, Kraft does something important to raise the floor of such a downfield attack. While he’s usually helping in the protection with chips or check releases on possible extra blitzers, he’s their main checkdown option on these plays, and if the LBs get too much depth, it becomes a real big fucking problem for the D. These checkdowns help them stay down to down efficient while attacking so vertically, and they also help them backdoor in some explosives just by getting such a dangerous creator who is big, fast, balanced, and quick, the ball in space.

And of course, he is capable of 1v1ing the DE if left in protection, something very few TEs can be asked to do. It’s part of your job to block ends alone in the run game, but not really in pass protection. This capability expands how Green Bay can configure their protections beyond what most teams can do. For instance, a full-slide like the above is often a non-starter with a DL-type threat aligned outside of the tackle, as said tackle would be sliding away from him, but Tucker Kraft gives you an extra 70% of a tackle. The kick step, the mirror, the anchor, it’s all legit, and it keeps Love clean to take his drop and unload without being bothered despite the theoretical “mismatch” in protection.

Kraft for OPOY

Tucker Kraft deserves to be the Offensive Player of the Year because he is the…overall offensive player of the year. He is everything that keeps this offense together and covers up its gaping lack of volume-driving intermediate receivers. He creates the conditions to lean on the vertical game by being the biggest individual driver, as an in-line force, of a run game that keeps defenses honest and protects it from overcommitment, in addition to turning those low percentage plays where nobody gets open into successes as a checkdown outlet. He makes their underneath and screen game go as a YAC monster, which, as another conduit for explosives in addition to the safety-valve of it all, simulates having a bit more pop in the non-vertical game than they actually have. The run game and quick/screen game cobbled together are enough right now to produce enough down to down punch to avoid being truly boom or bust, and the run game in particular keeping that boom more open downfield. The EPA/Play comes from their vertical game and Kraft’s board-flipping explosiveness after the catch, the success rate is an amalgamation of the run game, quick game/screen game, and Kraft’s checkdown dangerousness. Jordan Love is good, and, as both an overall passer and great vertical pusher more specifically. he is overall the most important piece. There’s no question about that, but their WR room lacks critical elements, and Tucker Kraft is the glue that allows Matt LaFleur to piece together an offense with efficiency in concert with their real strength, which is their explosiveness, and overall, a completed house despite a lot of missing materials. It’s just that the lead Kraftsman is not very friendly at work. Don’t say “Tucker Kraft” into any mirrors this Halloween, or he may show up to base block you through the sink.

In many ways, Thursday night’s tilt against the offensively battered Minnesota Vikings would be a far better way to evaluate the emergence of LA’s sensation of a rookie TE. The Colts put them down by multiple scores and accordingly, they were playing obvious-pass catch-up the whole time. It allowed Gadsden to shine, but it’s hardly a good way to evaluate the role of a player at a position that is inherently about the marriage between the run and pass games. If you want those things to mesh together, your TEs are the joint that makes it possible. If they can only catch the ball, you can’t have that. So we know Oronde Gadsden can move, run routes, and catch the ball at a high level for the TE position*. Great!

Thursday drove that point even further, with Gadsden putting up a cold 77 yards and another TD in the first half before the Chargers spent the second with the game in the bag. While Gadsden is their hottest weapon right now, he may also be, at least as it stands, the best assistant to opposing defensive gameplanners as well, even if they will no doubt have trouble covering him on an individual level. So let’s look at Thursday night and follow-up on what we discussed yesterday.

Gadsden continued to be a big part of the LA dropback pass game as the Y in 11 personnel. This grouping is their equivalent of a pass-rush package, so it's usually reserved for obvious pass situations, but Gadsden gave the Vikings, with Flores’ pressure-heavy D, all kinds of issues. The more you send pressure, the less you can do in coverage.

Gadsden’s a tough cat to cover when he has those nice Y matchups in the passing game, and this TD against SS Josh Metellus is a great example. He does a great job decelerating, putting his outside foot in the ground, and clearing the jam to beat the overmatched defender clean to the inside for the TD.

The game script overall though, was different than last week against Indy, and thus, so was his deployment. The Chargers wanted to minimize how spread out they were against a defense that is both incredibly willing to throw funhouse coverage shifts and pressure paths at you and *sucks* against the run. As a result, LA played a bunch of snaps in ultra-heavy 22 personnel with Gadsden paired with FB Scott Matlock and tank Y Tucker Fisk, who backs up Will Dissly as the extra OL type. These groupings are heavily limiting to the passing game, whittling it down to just 2-3 man PA concepts, but Gadsden’s fluidity allowed the Chargers to pop them, especially with the blown assignment by the FS In Cover-2. This play should have been covered, but Gadsden’s ability to get out and then make a play with the ball after the catch helps them punish it. Ultimately you need to be able to do more than that with the pass if you want to spend *too much* time in any grouping, but it’s a nice element in smaller doses.

The nice thing about those groupings is that they allow then to shelter him as a blocker. Instead of having to deal with an on-ball type, he ends up on off-ball LB Ivan Pace, who controls and sheds him more effectively than you’d like. Again, blocking is still new to Gadsden and he’s transitioning to the NFL to boot, but it’s still not at a level where he can be situation-proof.

As good developers do, Greg Roman and TE coach Andy Bischoff are exposing him to a little bit more week by week, and that continued. The Chargers are in 21 personnel here which, for the TE, is the same proposition as 11. It’s just you out there, and someone has to be in-line to run it, so you have to be the in-line guy. There’s a lot of good here and of course some bad. The hand usage, sustain, and effort to finish are great, but you have to have more initial strength to anchor and not get put onto skates like this. He’s on DL-type Tyler Batty, who is 6’6, 271 but a UDFA making his NFL debut, so the matchup is a mixed bag too.

Here he is again on Batty. It’s backside so the proposition and stakes are different, but this is a competitive rep, I like it a lot. He does a great job capturing the playside shoulder and digging in to turn the bigger defender out. It isn’t dominant, and he almost certainly will never be that, but if they can get in-line blocks like this consistently and reliably, it’s enough. File this one away. Overall though, he is still not good enough to truly take over as TE1. They are bullish on his future as a blocker, and given how much this staff clearly cares about it and works it, I think they have every chance to make it happen. He’s clearly put on some good weight since college and is working his tail off to develop it. Greg Roman turned Josh Oliver from “big WR” out of college to an undisputed top 5 blocker at the TE position. All he has to do is get Gadsden solid enough to do the job from a similar starting point.

Follow The Rookie, Find the Answer

I have a message of hope to DCs on the Chargers’ schedule going forward. You should definitely be worried about matching up with him, but if you track his deployment and who he is paired (or not paired) with, it will tell you exactly what the Chargers will and won’t, can and can’t, do on offense. Thanks to my friends at Fantasy Points, who do incredible work with player tracking data, I found some things out that are very apparent on tape as well. Yesterday, again in a game that represents the Chargers preferences and tendencies well with a positive game script, the Chargers ran 27 total snaps of 11 personnel. Gadsden was on the field for 23 of those. As you can see, Gadsden is getting out there a bunch in 11, even in neutral situations, which is usually the indicator of a complete enough starter at the position. On those 23 snaps, the Chargers ran the ball once. ONCE!

This was the play. It was a neutral down and distance and the Vikings came out in their lightest nickel package, with speed rushers Dallas Turner and Jon Greenard at the Edges in a 4 man front. On the back-end 2-high alignment pre-snap and light box. It went for 4 yards despite this favorable look because Dallas Turner was able to control and get to the ball through Gadsden’s base block, which was supposed to turn him out.

Dallas Turner is not a good run defender guys. Here he is getting stopped (for emphasis, he is a true Edge defender) just enough by Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas, unable to throw him aside or bowl him over. It’s just one play, but if they are in 11 personnel and Gadsden is the TE, they are passing. If they don’t pass, it doesn’t really matter because it wouldn’t work consistently even if you are light in the box. Just have the Edge cave the TE and 2-gap him to win back the numbers. They did run the ball plenty with Gadsden, just out of heavy looks where Tucker Fisk could handle the Ends.

Gameplanning Against the Chargers

The challenge for this offense going forward is that it isn’t married together at all. Gadsden is going to be a threat in their 12/22/13p groupings to detach and run a sail or over on PA, and in 11 he’s a threat at the Y (wherever he aligns, he’s still the Y and the D has 3 WR to account for in any situstion, so it’s easier) as a matchup winner with a S or LB in either man or zone, but his touches alone can’t sustain an offense if they are making it harder for everyone else by allowing defenses to put them in difficult 3rd and long type situations on every down. Exposing Herbert to that, with their OL especially, is a recipe for immense difficulty. Only the Bengals, Chiefs, and most of the time Bills are capable of living that way all the time in the modern game. For that matter, the Bills have been much better over the last few years because they don’t have to do it. For them, Dalton Kincaid, a similarly gifted receiver to Gadsden, carries a snap share of around 40% and only rotates in for obvious pass and some of their heavy personnel packages. Kincaid is a stud pass-catcher by TE standards, but doesn’t clear that Bowers/Kelce WR line and constricts the passing game in 12 personnel without nearly enough difference made on the ground to justify it. Gadsden is still young, but clearing that line is so rare it can’t be predicted, especially considering Gadsden’s good but not ultra-freaky athletic profile, and the fact so much of Gadsden’s success so far has come from the Y spot in the lineup, which is again easier no matter where you line up, or, when in heavy, close to the formation on PA.

NFL Quality Control coaches, allow me to do your jobs for you.

If it’s 11p with Gadsden, they’re passing.

If they’re in 12p/22p/13p, they can’t really run their dropback pass game and spread the field. You do have to honor the run a bit AND stop PA, but you don’t have to really cover Matlock, Fisk, or Dissly when he’s back, so you can play 2 high and still load up the front (ie Belichick in the 2018 Super Bowl, daring LAR to spread it and throw underneath, knowing they didn’t do that from under center)

If it’s 11p with Fisk/Matlock/Dissly/even Conklin and NO Gadsden, they get a bit more honest, especially because Tre Harris and Keenan Allen block so well at the F. However, with Gadsden’s near 100% route participation this week and likely going forward, you can deduce run here.

Where does that lead me from a DC’s point of view? In the first situation, I’m putting my 3rd down nickel group out there with 4 pass rushers up front and a CB at nickel. Shifting coverages, throwing everything under the sun at them with tons of disguises and exotic pressures. I’m creating Bengals/Chiefs conditions and making Herbert play on impossible behind a suspect OL.

In the second situation, I’m playing heavier fronts but keeping both Safeties high as much as I can to cap the PA stuff. Regardless they cannot live enough on heavy PA to sustain them down to down. This is the reason teams with dreams of a positionless “12 personnel always” offense almost always abandon them fairly quickly, you’ll be missing your slot a lot of the time, especially if you don’t have a Ravens level run game which few do.

The third situation is by far the toughest to figure out, whittle down, and develop a plan for. I’d probably play big nickel with a true NT and one run defending DE instead of 2 DTs and 2 pure rush ends like before, and putting a 3rd S at nickel for big nickel. As for what I’d call? Probably a bunch of Cover 3 to fit the run with some Cover 6 (quarter quarter half) and Quarters to keep them honest enough. That is by far my weakest menu though, and the game will be slower/more predictable for Herbert here than with the other 11 personnel group.

If Gadsden were a credible in-line blocker that they trusted fully, that is all up in smoke and I have no idea what they’re doing and while there’s little chance I can really cover him with my Safeties and LBs at the Y anyway, I especially cannot if I have to think about them running the ball and put those guys in the box with gap assignments. Until Gadsden can do that and marry the offense together, or until he starts flexing out in 12 personnel and winning enough in a true WR capacity to not limit their ability to spread out and drop back, we have to pump the brakes on making grand declarations about Gadsden as a great Tight End. He’s definitely been a fun weapon, but you must be a sustainable, every down type of guy who doesn’t have unit-limiting weaknesses if you’re going to be mentioned with the likes of George Kittle, Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, and even fellow rookie Tyler Warren. Can he get there? Absolutely, and the Chargers are hellbent on developing him the right way to make that happen, but pump the brakes. There’s more to see, big tests to their current operating procedure are coming when DCs figure this out.

The football community has had quite the reaction to Chargers rookie Oronde Gadsden’s historic week 7 game against the Indianapolis Colts. Gadsden set a Chargers rookie record for receiving yards in a game by a rookie TE, eclipsing Hall of Famer Antonio Gates’ 117 (he had never played football before that year, insane) and became just the third rookie TE in the Super Bowl era to put up both 150+ yards and a TD in a game. The 150 landmark is rare air at the position, with the most recent before Gadsden to jump this mark being Travis Kelce all the way back in 2023. Naturally, everyone is abuzz, with many declaring that the Chargers have found a franchise TE and long-term starter. Have they?

We still don’t know! But not yet. Gadsden actually intrigued me a lot coming out of Syracuse. While this may surprise you given the flex-only “big WR” tint to his game, he has the raw toolset to be a real player rather than a situational gimmick. He’s tall, his frame doesn’t appear fully maxed out having only switched from WR somewhat recently, and he’s continued to get stronger. There’s no denying it, Gadsden, at least on the TE grading scale, has the juice as a route-runner. He’s effortlessly fluid and his WR background (and paternal heritage) drips off of him in a good way, as you can see a good understanding of tempo, timing, and setting up breaks. Gadsden, however, is not a WR. Maybe he will develop so well as a route-runner, eventually pass the WR test, and become kind of a giant Keenan Allen (who is playing really well too still somehow), but those players are indeed, as I always say, deeply rare and it cannot be expected. As with guys like TJ Hockenson and Sam LaPorta, you just need to not be a limitation in-line to earn a consistent starting role with this kind of receiving juice. That bar, unfortunately, is actually incredibly high, as in-line blocking at TE is one of the NFL games hardest tasks, so it can’t be assumed. With his raw length and frame, however, it’s absolutely not impossible. Even if he doesn’t, he will still be a useful 3rd down piece and useful rotator/matchup issue in 12 and 13 personnel subpackages, which Greg Roman would always prefer to make not subpackages despite the way this year’s circumstances have forced them to spread out. Let’s look under the hood and see what Oronde Gadsden has actually been so far amidst all the buzz.

The Upside

The fluidity and feel I mentioned earlier jumps off the screen as it did in college. He clears the 2nd level effortlessly before slowing down a touch to maximize the space between the deep half S and the middle-running MLB to make himself more available to his QB. In general, he is a weapon in the seams.

While not beating man or match coverage here, and definitely not a sustainable spot for him, Gadsden’s size and ball-skills make him someone you can split out wide in favorable situations.

When playing the Y spot in the lineup, he is a complete matchup problem for DCs as, whether man or zone, his nearest defender is likely to be a S (in man and match coverages) or LB (in zones when in the middle). While *probably* not athletic enough to be a reliable separator on nickels or corners, his combination of route-running chops and size is too much for most Safeties to handle in man coverage as you see here.

When the threat of the run is presented and defenses honor the box, which I would NOT do if he’s the only TE out there like the second clip, Gadsden is a detachment threat on PA. I’m sure Greg Roman would love to be doing much more of this, but with the rash of injuries to their OL and RB room, it’s been difficult and they’ve been forced to lean on their star QB and quietly awesome WR room and spread the field. Long-term, this will be a bigger part of the offense and a consistent path to the field, even if not all the time, for Gadsden as long as Greg Roman is there (which he will be for the forseeable future because he has done a fantastic job). With a healthy OL and Hampton, this may become a bigger part of things.

Decoding His Role

With all of that fun over, let’s throw some water on it. He’s not viable in-line. He can’t really play TE. That may change as he develops! In-line blocking is brutal for rookie TEs, even the 260 pound Tyler Warren is learning with bumps, bruises, and assistance how to do it at this level. None of the rookie class has been reliable yet aside from Jackson Hawes who is there *just* to do it. Despite this, it’s more cleanly projectible for someone with the sheer mass of Tyler Warren or the lesser, but still very solid build and collegiate blocking pedigree of the Jets’ burgeoning stud Mason Taylor. It’s not a given here with Gadsden, who is pushing too thin despite solid weight gain over the past couple of years. You can see here how easily controlled he is by Laiatu Latu, and the way he 2-gaps this kills the run AND allows the Colts to do it while playing a light box and denying ease in the passing game. If you notice, so many of Gadsden’s numbers came in 11 personnel in a negative game script where every play essentially became third down. The Chargers dropped back over 50 times. The TE’s role in the offense is not determined by receiving at all, it’s determined by blocking. Even if receiving is a bit more valuable in upside, the role is determined by blocking. The starting TE is always, in my view and that of many OCs, the guy you trot out there when you have just 1 TE (21 or 11 personnel) in a totally neutral situation. Gadsden has feasted on Y matchups in obvious pass and before this past week, some rotational stuff in 12 or 13 personnel. Look, getting manhandled by Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu is understandable for any rookie TE, but you can’t be getting pushed back and shed by Germaine Pratt, an off-ball LB, like that. In heavy personnel, he’s fine at digging out safeties and nickels as many WRs also are, but he’s going to have to develop the real stuff if he will ever be a “franchise TE.” That, or he’ll have to become one of the truly rare huge, and actually *good,* pseudo WRs. Remember, those guys are genuine freaks among freaks. Even they can’t fully play outside at the X or Z and have to live mostly in the slot. Not even Brock Bowers, who has pure long-speed that many decent NFL Xs like Tee Higgins or Courtland Sutton don’t. You just don’t have the pure deceleration and high-speed maneuverability that slimmer bodies do. It’s a high bar to clear to become just a B+ to A- slot like Bowers or Kelce. In the meantime, he’s still a very useful player, and with the Chargers likely to find themselves in obvious passing situations quite a lot, he will definitely see the ball for now. Just don’t get ahead of your skis like you did with rookie year Kyle Pitts until he’s able to fully play his position.

There’s no question about it, of the main positional awards, the Mackey is definitely the strangest. Awards are given on stats wherever possible, that’s just the reality of the situation, but college TE production is more deceptive than any other. At any level, elite TEs can struggle to get the ball due to extenuating circumstances in their environments. Georgia’s Oscar Delp might be the best Tight End in the country, but cannot get the ball because their dropback pass game is minimal and he is the only guy they have that can protect, so he has to stay in on PAP. Meanwhile, TEs in air-raid derivative offenses like Oklahoma’s Jaren Kanak can play the Y as hybrid WRs instead of needing to be at the F, so they can feast on matchups and capitalize on enormous dropback volume. While blocking is a big part of value, those guys are not inhibiting their offenses because of how the college game allows them to work, so they can’t be dismissed for it.

Overall, I will try to take everything into account and rank who I think have been the 5 best TEs in CFB this year, and who I’d have on my Mackey Ballot….

1: Dae’Quan Wright, Ole Miss (16 rec, 359 yards, 3 TD)

Ole Miss’ Dae’Quan Wright is simultaneously someone stuck in an offense not structured to get him the ball and producing at a high level in the box score. How is that possible? First of all, through Dae’Quan Wright, all things are possible, so jot that down. Second, his few touches do damage.

Don’t let his stocky build fool you, Wright is a fluid mover with another gear, which makes him a huge yac threat and walking explosive play. His 22.4 yards per reception lap FBS TEs with a minimum 10 receptions and despite a low target share, he is 2nd on his team in receiving total, only trailing the leader by 2 yards. Wright’s lack of volume is not his fault. Ole Miss’ passing game is heavily RPO driven, which, as a great in-line and move blocker, takes him out of many route distributions altogether. Even when not using RPO, Ole Miss throws outside the hashes as much as they possibly can, with minimal pro-style, middle of field dropback menu, which is where TEs get the ball. The other place TEs get the ball, true PA, is also focused outside the numbers. They have plays in for him in that department that have worked well, but again, they’re not throwing inside a lot.

As mentioned earlier, Wright is a great in-line blocker, one of the best in all of college football as it happens. Ole Miss’ run game would hurt without him, and there’s a lot of value beneath the surface on this iceberg. It’s hard to find a TE playing the position and creating more value in the college game, and if the season ended today, he is the deserved Mackey Winner.

2: Eli Raridon, Notre Dame (20 rec, 342 yards, 0 TD)

The last few weeks have been a STRONG push toward the top for the latest ascendant to the Notre Dame TE throne. The 6’7 freak has waited a bit and fought through injury adversity to get here, but the offseason hype (to which I subscribed) has fully shown up on the field. Despite a brutally unlucky 0-2 start, the Notre Dame offense is one of the best units in the country and has them positioned to potentially make a backdoor run at the national title. Led by revelation QB CJ Carr, the Irish air attack has finally matched their ground game. Carr isn’t alone, as Raridon and future Patriots WR Jordan Faison have armed him to the teeth. Raridon is 5th nationally among TEs in receiving and a close second on his team to Faison with 342 yards. Like Wright, he is a big play machine, averaging 17.1 yards per reception, and has racked 80 or more yards in 3 of 6 games played.

(Terrible OPI call from a ref trying to protect safeties nationwide from defending stair-steps and LIFTING WEIGHTS)

Eli’s quickness, fluidity, and precision are unusual in a guy his height and his feel for space is developing quickly as the year goes on. His increased comfort is allowing him to play faster and we’re starting to see some of that raw athleticism translate to the route tree in an exciting way. Notre Dame’s passing game is pro-style, which, unlike most places, gives him a good opportunity to get the ball in a true dropback setting, as that NFL MOF dropback menu is open for business in South Bend.

While Raridon is asked a TON of in the run game as the in-line guy in a heavily 11 personnel offense that lives on a smattering of inside zone, duo, counter, and outside zone, the blocking has been a bit hit or miss. In the grand scheme of TEs, he’s been very good when you adjust for the task at hand and is clearly not causing any problems for a tough ND run game. Regardless, he’s a do-it-all weapon for an elite offense with the numbers to match.

3: Michael Trigg, Baylor (29 rec, 439 yards, 4 TD)

The nation’s leader in receiving at TE has two black holes for hands. It’s been a long road to glory for Trigg, who was once a highly touted recruit at USC before bouncing to Ole Miss and now Baylor, but he has finally hit big. Trigg’s best outing is also his most recent, with an 8 rec, 155 yard explosion against Kansas State.

Trigg is best defined by his ball-winning, with big strides to stretch defenders and elite leaping ability/hands to go get it. He gives QB Sawyer Robertson the luxury of just tossing it above the rim in any 1v1 situation and having an answer. As the Y in a very spread offense (really 10.5 personnel more than 11), he is a matchup nightmare for the safeties and linebackers tasked with managing him. They do drop back for real and use the middle as an air raid team, however, with Trigg playing a useful role in the underneath zones when he isn’t putting some poor man defender on ESPN.

I’m not *punishing* him for the blocking, I’m simply giving the other guys extra points for it and adjusting to their external in-exposure to volume, but Trigg is a big beneficiary of an air raid run game. In these systems, and their veer and shoot cousins (think Heupel, Golesh, Mack Leftwich), the true TE more or less doesn’t exist, or at least it doesn’t need to. They skip the true Y and use the Y role as a move blocker. They rely on their spacing and passing games to create very light boxes and depend less on pure movement from the front, so they’re more comfortable using the Y as an off-ball blocker like a fullback. Think of him as an H-back who is a matchup-rigged WR. In-line, when blocking on-ball defenders without movement assistance, his slight frame makes him a big weakness. While this makes his transition to the NFL immensely dicey (at best), it’s a big and sustainable weapon for an offense like Baylor, and the Mackey ain’t for no NFL.

4: Jaren Kanak, Oklahoma (23 rec, 345 yards, 0 TD)

Kanak is definitely one of the 2025 season’s most interesting characters. A freak athlete, he was recruited as a linebacker and spent his entire career at OU there up until this season. In fact, if you go to his OU webpage, the displayed stats on his main bio are still defensive! He’s certainly built like an inside linebacker at a squat 6’2, 233, but Kanak has proven to be a natural pass-catcher. Kanak is 2nd in receiving for the Sooners, and is their main weapon in the middle of the field.

Kanak’s precise and quick feet jump off the screen. Reminiscent of classic slots like Julian Edelman or Cole Beasley, Kanak gets the most out of these windows. While OU isn’t doing it in a very pro-style way with many serious reads for the QB or diverse array of routes, they do get the ball between the numbers. Kanak’s agility and feel maximize these windows.

He generally occupies a similar blocking role to Trigg, and when asked to block in-line it is straight-up not happening. He is tiny. While Kanak is a big difference maker in this role, the vision for him, either next year at OU or in the NFL, is as a true slot. He reminds me a lot of Jack Bech who started at “TE” and sat around 225-230, but slimmed down to 215 and settles into a real power-slot role. With his natural speed and of course, quickness, the lighter frame would allow him to move at an NFL slot level, which he is still short of due to the extra mass. He’s a freakish raw athlete, so I think a 6’2, 215 pound Jaren Kanak could potentially be a similar weapon to Bech with that extra range and speed. For now, he’s a unique, but productive TE having a great season in Norman.

5: Peter Clarke, Temple (17 rec, 276 yards, 3 TD)

The big, imposing Clarke hails from neither the cornfields of Iowa nor the pastureland of Pennsylvania like it seems every other TE does. Clarke is new to football in the United States, having learned the game in his native London playing flag in the NFL’s international development infrastructure before graduating to tackle with the London Warriors. Clarke isn’t a 5th year or anything, he’s a true junior, and after coming across the pound underweight and in need of physical maturation, the now 260-pound Brit is anonymously dunking on the group of 5.

Despite running very British, Clarke has some juice, exploding into routes and out of breaks well for a big in-line guy.

Clarke is the best player on a surprise Temple offense under first-year HC KC Keeler, and it will be fascinating to see how he continues to grow over the second half of the season. With raw athleticism and an unbelievably rapid ascent, Peter Clarke may be very far from reaching his height, but has undoubtedly been one of the nation’s best TEs as it stands.

Honorable Mentions

Joe Royer, Cincinnati

Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

Lake McRee, USC

Mason Mini, Cal

Dan VIlari, Syracuse

Tanner Koziol, Houston

Terrance Carter Jr, Texas Tech

Oscar Delp, Georgia (deserved a shoutout)