The Oracle by Polymarket | Substack

Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia clash this year. But the real risk may lie in events that won’t trigger a YES resolution

Jun 12 • Polymarket and Jonathan Masters

Recent posts

Democratic operative TheMaineWonk on the Trump-like antifragility of Graham Platner PLUS how to watch Maine on election night.

Jun 10 • Polymarket and Will Ward

THE ARGENTINA MODEL

Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. on why Latin America is going the way of Argentina PLUS eBay, SpaceX, and Warner Bros M&A update

Jun 5 • Polymarket and Will Ward

THE MATH OF DEFEAT

Hedge fund manager on the inevitability of US defeat in Iran

May 29 • Polymarket and Will Ward

SLEEPING GIGANTE?

Are World Cup traders overlooking the defending champs? PLUS: The Norway paradox, bracket path dependency, and U.S. home cooking

May 28 • Neil Paine and Polymarket

Can a reality TV bad boy burn down the career of LA's mayor?

May 20 • Polymarket and Will Ward

Democratic operative on what the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling means for the midterms

May 1 • Polymarket and Will Ward

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