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Navigating Russia
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The Mystery of the Bella 1: Why Did Moscow Mount a "Spetsoperatsiia" to Save a Stateless Shadow Tanker?
Moscow’s flagging of the Bella 1 wasn’t about arms or saving Russia’s fleet. It was part of a wider bid to break the Venezuelan oil embargo and gain…
Feb 3
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Craig Kennedy
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Restraining Russian Oil: New Sanctions are Poised to Further Erode Moscow’s Faltering War Finances [highlights from forthcoming reports]
Given a chance to take their toll, new oil sanctions should accelerate the Russian energy sector's steep decline, intensify Moscow’s cashflow squeeze…
Dec 15, 2025
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Craig Kennedy
24
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Moscow’s Fading Shadow Fleet: Russian Oil Revenues are More Vulnerable than Ever
The West has cracked the code on how to roll back Russia’s shadow fleet at scale. This gives policymakers new, low-risk, high-impact options for further…
May 7, 2025
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Craig Kennedy
67
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Russia's Hidden War Debt (full report)
Moscow has been discreetly funding heavy war costs with risky, off-budget debt. But the scheme has caused major problems—with more likely to…
Feb 14, 2025
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Craig Kennedy
109
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Russia’s Hidden War Debt
Moscow has been stealthily funding much of its war costs with risky, off-budget financing overlooked by the West. That funding is now under pressure…
Jan 11, 2025
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Craig Kennedy
191
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Making the Baltic a "Shadow-Free" Zone (Brookings Paper)
A proposal to reduce Moscow's shadow fleet operations in European waters by pressuring vessels to comply with international insurance standards (May…
Dec 17, 2024
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Craig Kennedy
10
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The Shadow Fleet in Crisis (highlights from an upcoming report)
Beset by mixed economics and perilous sanctions, shadow fleet growth has stalled. OFAC is well positioned to downsize the fleet and undercut Moscow’s…
Apr 8, 2024
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Craig Kennedy
23
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The De-Kastri Mystery
Why has half a billion dollars of Sakhalin oil been turned away from India? And what does it portend for Russia’s shadow trade?
Jan 15, 2024
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Craig Kennedy
17
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