This week’s email is very special and different from our usual Sunday updates. After two years testing different ideas and looking for the best way to build it, we are finally launching our market tracking platform for retail investors.

We are introducing The Market Currents.

The Market Currents is a platform with financial and market data, useful investor tools and personalised reports, designed to make it easier to access and track both the positions in your portfolio and the key drivers moving the market.

Our goal is to give retail investors access to the key information they need to follow the evolution of their portfolio while understanding what is happening in markets at any given time.

The idea is to have all the relevant information for your universe of companies available at a glance, with structured access to specific insights such as insider trading, short interest, technical indicators and earnings analysis. We also want to make available valuation tools for companies and options, screeners, personalised charts, and daily and weekly reports covering areas such as financially solid companies trading at 52-week lows, high dividend yields with sustainable payout ratios, and other relevant market opportunities.

The objective is simple: to help you make your own investment decisions with better information and more context.

The Market Currents is structured around five sections:

• Portfolio

• Companies

• Reports

• Investor Tools

• Markets

Portfolio

Portfolio Hub

The place to centralise all the relevant day-to-day information for your portfolio. Upload your Portfolio and Watchlist positions to access notifications related to your companies, including press releases, insider trading, technical indicators, dividends and earnings dates.

You can also configure specific alerts for companies you follow - for example, being notified when EV/EBITDA falls below a certain ratio - or when new companies meet the criteria defined in your continuous screener.

Portfolio Analysis

Do you really understand what is moving your portfolio? Which key factors it is exposed to, or how it would behave under an oil shock scenario - or any other market shock?

Our portfolio analysis tool studies the dependencies and correlations within your portfolio and shows them in a clear, structured way.

It also allows you to run an ETF replication exercise. How much real alpha is your active management generating? What combination of ETFs can replicate 99% of your portfolio’s behaviour?

Companies

Access all the financial information of the companies you follow, with a fully customisable view. You can also access their press releases and latest reports, and preview the share price evolution by overlaying insider purchases or changes in short seller activity.

Dashboard

Access the full detail of each company’s key metrics, configured around your own investment process.

The dashboard allows you to customise the variables you want to see across valuation, profitability, balance sheet, fundamentals and price data. Instead of moving between different sources, you can compare the companies in your portfolio, watchlist or broader universe in a single structured view.

Insider Trading

At a glance, see what company insiders are doing. Rankings show the companies with the highest insider buying and selling activity over the time periods you select.

You can also access charts showing all insider purchases and sales over a specific period, including the value of each transaction.

Short Interest

You will be able to track the companies with the highest short interest, the largest increases and the largest decreases over the period selected. It also includes trend charts to see whether short seller activity is building, stabilising or reversing over time.

This can be used as a risk signal for companies in your portfolio or watchlist, but also as a source of potential ideas when short interest moves sharply against improving fundamentals.

Press Releases

Track the latest company announcements in one place, filtered by company, sector, industry or your own portfolio and watchlist, so relevant corporate updates are easier to monitor without moving across multiple sources.

Screener

A screener to discover new companies that meet your investment criteria.

Earnings Analysis

Earnings analysis of the most followed companies on our platform - and, upon request, of the broader listed universe.

Reports

This is probably the section with the highest potential to become the most differentiated part of the platform.

We have created specific reports for investors who do not have enough time to follow everything in detail, but still want access to the key information affecting their portfolio, the market and new opportunities at a glance.

• The Daily Briefing highlights the main drivers that have moved the companies in your portfolio during the day.

• The Insider Trading report provides weekly updates on insider activity across the market.

• Asset Flows shows where money is moving across markets and the potential implications for investors.

• Our three Stock Ideas reports - Undervalued European Equity, Fallen Angels and High Covered Dividends - highlight, on a weekly basis, the companies that meet The Market Currents team’s criteria within each category.

Over the coming weeks, we will continue adding new reports focused on specific investor needs, either requested by subscribers or developed proactively by The Market Currents team.

Investor Tools

Chart Lab allows you to build customised charts using financial metrics, price series and valuation ratios across different companies, time periods and sectors. Investors can compare annual or quarterly data, track the evolution of selected companies over time, or visualise how a group of stocks is positioned across two variables such as ROE, leverage, margins or valuation multiples.

The scatter and screener view adds a more analytical layer. Instead of looking at companies one by one, investors can map a full universe and quickly identify outliers, clusters and potential opportunities - for example, companies with high returns on capital but depressed multiples, or businesses trading at similar valuations despite very different fundamentals.

Chart Lab is also built to make relative analysis easier. Whether the objective is to compare free cash flow generation, revenue growth, margins, share price performance or valuation dispersion, the platform brings the data into a single charting environment that can be adapted to the investor’s own process.

Option Labs

Option Labs helps investors analyse the main variables behind an options trade before entering a position. Options are not only about direction: strike selection, time to expiry, implied volatility and payoff structure can materially change the risk/reward profile. The tool estimates theoretical option prices, compares them with market prices and shows whether the premium is mainly driven by intrinsic value, time value or implied volatility.

It also visualises the payoff profile across different price scenarios, including break-even, maximum loss and maximum profit. The main Greeks - Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega and Rho - help identify whether the position is primarily exposed to price movements, time decay, volatility or rates.

The objective is to give investors a clearer framework to assess whether the expected return compensates for the risks embedded in the option structure.

Valuation

Our valuation tool is designed to make company valuation more accessible for retail investors. We load the financial statements, and you define the assumptions. The model then calculates an estimated target price and shows the sensitivity to each key variable, giving you a first approximation of what the company could be worth under different growth, margin and cost scenarios.

It is not intended to replace detailed research, but to provide a structured framework to understand which assumptions drive the valuation and how much each one can change the outcome.

Markets

Asset Flows

Track where money is moving across markets, sectors, countries and asset classes. Asset Flows helps investors identify which areas of the market are attracting capital and which ones are seeing pressure. The tool allows you to compare performance across major indices, sectors and countries, and visualise how leadership changes over time.

This can be useful to understand whether a portfolio is aligned with current market flows, where relative strength is building, and which areas may be starting to lose momentum.

Macro

Follow the key macro indicators that shape the market backdrop. The Macro section brings together activity, inflation, employment and interest rate data in a visual format, making it easier to understand the economic environment behind market moves. Investors can track indicators such as GDP, CPI, PPI, unemployment, payrolls and the yield curve without moving across multiple sources.

The objective is to provide context. Markets rarely move because of one variable in isolation, and this section helps investors connect company performance, portfolio behaviour and broader macro trends.

Next Steps

We want this to be a sustainable project, so we will scale it gradually as usage increases. For that reason, you can help us enormously - not only by benefiting from free premium access yourself, but also by sharing the project with friends and contacts who may find it useful.

Thank you very much for your support.

Hope you had a great weekend and enjoy today’s email

We cover

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper ( Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, …)

Equity Research

• Jet2 - Jet2 is a business that sits between one of the UK’s largest leisure airlines and the country’s largest tour operator. The setup is interesting: Jet2 combines strong growth, proven execution and a clean balance sheet with a major A321neo capex cycle and macro/geopolitical risks that the market is heavily discounting. In the report, we analyse whether that discount is justified or whether the current valuation offers an attractive entry point into a differentiated leisure travel business..

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• The Market Currents - Next week, we’re launching our free market data platform for retail investors, with portfolio tracking, company financials, personalised reports, market monitoring, insider trading, macro data….

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

Another week of new all-time highs for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, supported by the latest U.S.-Iran peace agreement rumours that could finally reopen the Strait of Hormuz and have pushed oil down more than 10% this week. In parallel, continued momentum in AI-linked stocks and another strong batch of earnings have effectively closed the 1Q26 earnings season, with 97% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 85% beating EPS estimates and 81% beating revenue estimates. This combination has helped extend what is already an historic rally.

The earnings season has also helped reduce part of the valuation pressure. The blended earnings growth rate for 1Q26 now stands at 28.6%, compared with 13.1% expected at the end of March, while revenue growth stands at 11.8%. As estimates have moved higher, forward P/E ratios have compressed from the most stretched levels seen earlier in the year. The issue is that the rally remains narrow: the index is making new highs, but leadership is still concentrated in AI, mega-cap technology and a limited group of growth stocks.

The valuation picture is therefore less extreme than headline index levels suggest, but also less comfortable than the earnings beats imply. The aggregate index multiple has moved lower as earnings estimates have been revised up, while the median stock remains well below the valuation level of the largest index constituents. This is still a market led by a narrow group of companies.

Hormuz

The market is increasingly pricing the end of the acute phase of the Hormuz crisis. That is reasonable. The U.S. has little incentive to keep the conflict open indefinitely, Iran needs a path to restore exports, and a negotiated reopening of the Strait now looks more likely than it did a few weeks ago.

Macro

The decline in crude helped risk assets during the week, but oil remains high enough to keep feeding into inflation data, making the path for central banks less straightforward.

• 1Q26 GDP revision: 1.6% QoQ vs. 2.0% expected and 0.5% previously.

• Initial jobless claims: 215K vs. 211K expected - still consistent with a tight labour market.

• New home sales: 622K vs. 661K expected - housing remains under pressure from higher mortgage rates.

• Consumer confidence: 93.1 vs. 91.9 expected - a modest positive surprise, but still a weak absolute level.

The more relevant data point was PCE inflation. Headline PCE rose to 3.8% YoY in April, the highest level since May 2023, while Core PCE increased to 3.3% YoY, the highest level since October 2023. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remains far from the 2% target.

Europe is facing a similar problem. Inflation has moderated significantly from the 2022 peak, but the latest national CPI data from France, Spain and Italy shows renewed pressure at exactly the wrong point in the cycle. The ECB is not in the same position as the Fed, but the direction of travel is similar: energy prices and sticky services inflation make it harder to validate an aggressive easing path.

This is the key macro tension for markets. Growth is not collapsing, labour markets remain relatively resilient, AI-related investment is still supporting activity, and inflation is no longer clearly improving. That combination reduces the probability of near-term rate cuts and keeps the risk of a higher-for-longer policy stance alive.

The FED curve now reflects a market that is no longer positioned for a simple easing cycle. The probability distribution has shifted toward higher-for-longer, with some probability still assigned to additional hikes if inflation does not cool.

The fiscal side adds another layer. U.S. federal interest payments reached $616Bn through the first seven months of FY26, up 6.4% YoY and more than three times the level seen in the same period of 2021. Interest expense is now one of the fastest-growing parts of the federal budget.

This does not create an immediate market event, but it makes the rate structure increasingly sensitive. A higher-for-longer environment is no longer just a valuation issue for equities. It is also becoming a fiscal issue.

Week Ahead

1Q26 earnings season is now effectively done. 97% of S&P 500 companies have already reported, with 85% beating EPS estimates and 81% beating revenue estimates. The blended earnings growth rate for the quarter is now 28.6%, up from 13.1% expected at the end of March, while revenue growth stands at 11.8%.

The remaining reports this week mainly serve as a final read on AI/software, consumer demand and corporate spending.

• AI infrastructure / enterprise software - Broadcom, CrowdStrike and GitLab are the main reports to watch. The focus will be on AI-related demand, cybersecurity budgets and whether software spending is still resilient enough to support current multiples.

• Consumer / discretionary demand - Dollar General, Lululemon and Ulta give a final read on the US consumer, from value-driven spending to higher-end discretionary categories. The key question is whether traffic and pricing remain supportive or whether pressure is becoming more visible.

• Other relevant reads - Medtronic, Ciena and DocuSign add useful colour on medtech demand, networking equipment and corporate workflow spending, but they are unlikely to change the broader earnings-season narrative.

Jet2 - Initial Equity Research

Jet2 is the UK’s largest tour operator and one of the country’s largest leisure airlines. The group combines Jet2.com, its airline operation, with Jet2holidays, its package holiday business, creating a model that sits between airline, tour operator and direct-to-consumer leisure platform. Jet2 is not only selling seats; it is increasingly selling the full holiday product, while retaining control over the aircraft capacity that supports it.

Jet2 was created in 1971 as an air freight and distribution business, later became Dart Group and listed in London in 1991. The current leisure platform started to take shape with the launch of Jet2.com in 2002 and Jet2holidays in 2007, which shifted the group from an airline-led model toward an integrated holiday platform.

Since 2019, the scale of that platform has changed materially. Jet2 has moved from nine UK bases and a 90-aircraft fleet to 14 UK bases, more than 19MM passengers, and a mix where package holidays account for 66.5% of passengers and more than 80% of FY2025 revenue. Operating profit has more than doubled versus FY2019, while operating profit per sector seat has increased from around £15 to around £20.

That growth has not been reflected in the share price. Jet2’s shares are down almost 40% over the last year, leaving the company with a market capitalisation of around £2.3Bn despite a much larger revenue base, a stronger package holiday mix and a balance sheet that remains unusual for the sector. Management has also been using the weakness actively: Jet2 completed a £250MM buyback, announced a further £100MM programme and has reduced the share count from around 215MM to less than 191MM over the last two years, while continuing to fund fleet growth and new base expansion.

To do so, this analysis includes:

• A detailed explanation of Jet2’s business model, including the tour operator and airline operations, as well as the customer cash float generated by advance payments.

• An analysis of the evolution of Jet2’s market position, load factor and capacity absorption, the current competitive context and its growth plan through the A321neo programme.

• Current financials, including a detailed review of the balance sheet, our forecast for the current year - FY27 - management’s track record and capital allocation.

• A detailed valuation using a DCF model, with a step-by-step explanation, together with a comparison against key listed peers such as easyJet, Ryanair, TUI, Wizz Air…

• Our independent view on Jet2 and the potential opportunity currently offered by the market.

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Golar LNG - Probably the company MORAM Capital is best known for.

• De Longhi - Family-controlled consumer company best known for premium coffee machines and small domestic appliances. Exposure to the structural growth of at-home coffee.

• Jet2 - UK’s largest tour operator and also one of the country’s largest airlines by passengers. It combines flights, package holidays, direct customer access and advance customer cash collection in a vertically integrated leisure travel model.

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

The rally extended for an eighth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 now up around 17% over that period and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continuing to make new all-time highs. The sector picture has also changed materially. In April, there was still a wide gap between Energy - the clear beneficiary of the war - and Technology, which had been hit hard by the SaaS correction. That gap has now almost closed. The difference is that Energy represents only around 4% of the S&P 500, while Technology accounts for roughly 32% of the index. That is why the recent catch-up in Technology has mattered much more for the index than the earlier strength in Energy.

However, markets currently look like a tale of two cities. While equity markets remain primarily focused on earnings and the Technology sector, bond markets have been more focused on risks tied to higher oil prices, sticky inflation and government debt.

This is not just a US issue. Long-term yields have also moved higher in Europe, Japan and the UK, as investors demand more compensation for inflation risk, fiscal uncertainty and heavier government issuance. If governments try to offset higher energy costs with additional fiscal support, the long end of the curve may need higher yields to absorb that supply..

Hormuz

The week starts with another tentative de-escalation signal around Hormuz. Trump said over the weekend that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated”, with the framework reportedly including a process to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, some easing around Iranian assets and a continuation of formal negotiations. Rubio also suggested that further news could come shortly, while Iranian-linked sources reported that 35 vessels had crossed Hormuz over the previous 24 hours under coordination with Iranian naval forces. If repeated over several days, that would be the first relevant sign that traffic is moving toward normalisation rather than simply reacting to headlines.

We would still be cautious. The past two months have produced several moments of apparent progress that were quickly followed by new escalation, and part of the shock from almost three months of disruption is already embedded in energy prices, supply chains and inflation expectations. That said, this round appears to have more substance than previous headlines, partly because both sides are leaving room for a diplomatic outcome rather than immediately dismissing it.

A credible reopening of Hormuz would not erase the shock, but it would remove an important tail risk for Brent, TTF and global inflation expectations - which is exactly where the market pressure has been most visible outside equities.

Macro

PMIs - The composite PMI held at 51.7 in May, consistent with continued but modest growth rather than acceleration. Manufacturing improved sharply to 55.3, its highest level in four years, while services slipped to 50.9. That leaves a more uneven picture: the economy is still expanding, but the services side is losing momentum and the employment component has stopped confirming the resilience suggested by headline activity.

The more important signal came from prices. Manufacturing input prices rose to 80 in May, the highest level since mid-2022, and are now up 18 points since February. This does not mean the 2021-2022 inflation cycle is repeating, but it does show that cost pressure has become macro-relevant again. That is the uncomfortable combination for markets: activity is not weak enough to force a clear policy pivot, but inflation pressure is no longer moving cleanly in the right direction.

Earnings Season

This week brought the key event of the 1Q26 earnings season: NVIDIA. With roughly 94% of S&P 500 companies already reported, the season has been clearly better than expected, with around 84% beating EPS estimates and aggregate earnings coming in well above forecasts.

NVIDIA reinforced the main market narrative. Revenue grew 85% YoY to $81.6Bn, Data Center revenue grew 92% YoY to $75.2Bn, and guidance remained strong. More important than the beat was the message: NVIDIA is no longer framed only as a GPU company, but as the core infrastructure provider for AI - compute, networking, software, AI factories, robotics and, increasingly, CPUs. Jensen Huang’s “agentic AI has arrived” line captured the thesis: AI workloads are moving from experimentation to productive compute.

The reaction was more muted because the bar was already very high. Demand remains strong and the roadmap through Blackwell and Vera Rubin extends the cycle, but inventories are rising and the supply-chain buildout is becoming larger. For the broader market, 1Q26 earnings have supported the rally, especially through AI infrastructure, large-cap technology and financials. The problem is no longer the quarter. It is the valuation setup: results are still good, but the margin for disappointment is smaller.

The Week Ahead

With the index-level earnings season largely behind us, next week is less about the aggregate beat rate and more about whether the pockets of strength that have supported the rally can continue to justify current leadership and valuations. The focus shifts to a narrower but still relevant set of reports: AI infrastructure, enterprise software, US consumer demand and China-linked growth. These are not likely to change the conclusion of the 1Q26 season, but they should help test whether the market’s preferred areas still have earnings support behind them.

• AI infrastructure / semis (Marvell, Dell, HP) - Marvell and Dell are the key reports. The market will focus on AI datacenter demand, custom silicon, AI server backlog and whether margins are holding as the mix shifts. HP adds a more cyclical read on PCs and enterprise hardware.

• Enterprise software / cloud - (Salesforce, Snowflake, Zscaler) - This is the main software block of the week. The question is whether enterprise demand is stabilising, or whether AI budgets are still crowding out traditional software spend. Salesforce and Snowflake should be the cleaner reads on corporate software demand and cloud data consumption.

• Retail / consumer - (Costco, Best Buy, Dollar General) - A broad check on the US consumer. Costco should show whether traffic and value-driven spending remain resilient, while Best Buy and Dollar General give a more useful read on discretionary pressure, lower-income demand and the impact of still-high rates on household spending.

• China / internet / EVs - (PDD, Xpeng, Weibo) - PDD is the main China consumer read. Xpeng will be watched for EV pricing pressure, margins and delivery momentum, while Weibo adds colour on advertising demand and online consumption. The key question is whether China-linked growth is stabilising or still being driven by company-specific execution rather than a broader recovery.

Golar LNG - Updated Equity Research

Golar LNG remains the company for which MORAM Capital is best known, and the one on which we have spent more time than any other since our first acquisition on May 15th, 2020. We began analyzing the company after a force majeure event that nearly derailed the story. Since then, Golar has transformed from a complex LNG vehicle with exposure to several parts of the gas value chain into a pure-play FLNG platform and the global reference in a niche where proven execution matters more than theoretical capacity.

That transformation has been extraordinary. The shipping segment was separated into CoolCo, the downstream business was sold to New Fortress Energy, Hilli became the proof point for converted FLNG reliability, Gimi finally entered operations in Mauritania/Senegal, and Argentina became the next major growth leg through the 20-year Hilli and MKII contracts. Over the same period, the company has moved from balance sheet stress and strategic complexity to a much cleaner asset base built around scarce floating liquefaction capacity.

The 1Q26 update comes at an important point in the story. Gimi is now contributing materially to earnings, Hilli is approaching the end of its Cameroon contract before moving to Argentina, MKII remains on schedule, and the company is preparing for the next stage of FLNG growth. At the same time, the share price has already moved significantly, the market is beginning to discount part of the fourth-FLNG opportunity, and the Goldman-led strategic review adds a new corporate dimension to the investment case.

This makes the current setup more complex than it was a few months ago. The market is no longer ignoring the contracted platform, and the share price has moved sharply since our updated equity research published just before the war. Part of that move reflects the new risk premium the market now assigns to Qatar, as well as the growing need to diversify LNG supply away from the US, which is becoming the largest player in the global LNG market. But it is still not clear how much value the market is willing to assign to what comes next. Argentina is progressing, Gimi is exceeding contract, MKII remains on schedule, and the LNG market backdrop has become more supportive for new FLNG awards.

Our objective in this report is to explain how each piece of the puzzle affects Golar’s investment case, so that when new information arrives - positive or negative - we can assess it quickly and act accordingly.

Today, we update our Golar LNG thesis with:

• Commentary on the 1Q26 results and the current share price setup

• Analysis of the progress in Argentina and the value embedded in SESA, including infrastructure, offtake contracts, remaining volumes and commodity-linked economics.

• A detailed follow-up on potential fourth and fifth FLNG opportunities, across the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.

• Analysis of the balance sheet and the strategic review as tools to finance future growth, including MKII/Hilli refinancing.

• Valuation of Golar under several scenarios, including the current contracted platform, a new Mark I / Mark II / Mark III FLNG, and commodity price sensitivities.

• Our view on Golar’s current situation, the risk/reward balance, key catalysts and potential ways to position through options.

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Sky Harbour - US-based developer and operator of private aviation campuses at major airports, offering long-term hangar leases to high-net-worth aircraft owners. Early stage company with growing portfolio.

• HBX Group - B2B travel distribution platform connecting hotels with wholesale buyers, including tour operators, travel agencies and airlines worldwide. Deleveraging, share buybacks and takeover rumours.

• Corporacion America - Airport operator running 52 airports across Argentina, Brazil, Italy, Uruguay, Armenia and Ecuador, with new tenders in Angola and Iraq. Healthy balance sheet and double-digit growth.

• NewPrinces - Family-controlled European food platform built through M&A, with exposure to pasta, dairy, bakery, canned foods, fish and beverages. The group owns a majority stake in UK-listed Princes and recently acquired Carrefour Italy.

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

Markets ended the week in the red, despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh yearly highs on Thursday. We believe that the reversal was not a rejection of the AI trade, but a reminder that the market is still operating on a narrow margin of safety: earnings momentum remains strong, but inflation, long-end yields, oil and geopolitics are harder to ignore.

Sector performance reflected that tension. Energy was the clear winner, supported by Brent back near $110/bbl and a geopolitical premium that has not disappeared. Consumer staples and selected technology names also held up relatively well, while consumer discretionary, real estate and materials led the declines. That combination is consistent with a market becoming more sensitive to rates, affordability and cyclical demand.

The key point is that the market is not yet breaking, but breadth is already very weak. AI and earnings revisions are still doing most of the heavy lifting, while the macro backdrop is becoming less supportive. That can work as long as earnings continue to move higher. If revisions slow, a market with such narrow leadership has much less room to absorb higher rates, higher oil or renewed geopolitical stress.

Earnings Season

The main support for the market remains earnings. The S&P 500 is making new highs, but this is not only multiple expansion: 2026 EPS expectations have continued to move higher, with consensus now above $335.

So far, earnings season has been strong enough to validate the move. The clearest support continues to come from AI and mega-cap technology. Nvidia remains next week’s key event, but recent moves in Cisco and Applied Materials show that the market is still rewarding guidance tied to AI infrastructure demand, cloud spending and operating leverage.

That is positive, but it also increases concentration risk. A large part of the earnings upgrade is still tied to a relatively narrow group of AI and mega-cap names. If revisions stop moving higher, equities will have much less protection against sticky inflation, higher oil or renewed geopolitical stress.

Macro

April CPI was the week’s most important macro datapoint, and it was not benign. Headline inflation accelerated to +3.8% YoY from +3.3% in March, while core CPI rose +0.4% MoM and +2.8% YoY, above the prior +2.6%. The issue is not one isolated print, but the direction: the final leg of disinflation is becoming harder just as energy, services and shelter remain sticky.

• Retail sales were more constructive, but not spectacular. April sales rose 0.5%, in line with expectations, while the control group also increased 0.5%. The consumer is not collapsing, but the mix remains uneven, with strength in gas stations, sporting goods and electronics, and weakness in furniture and clothing.

• Labour data moved in the same direction: not weak, but no longer perfectly clean. Initial claims increased to 211k and continuing claims rose to 1.782MM. For now, this still looks more like gradual normalisation than a labour-market break.

The policy backdrop also became more complicated. Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the next Fed Chair, while Powell remains temporarily in place until Warsh is sworn in. Warsh is perceived as more hawkish and more focused on financial stability risks, which matters at a moment when inflation is reaccelerating and long-end yields remain elevated. His first communication will be important for how the market interprets the Fed reaction function from here.

US / China

The Trump-Xi summit delivered a better-than-feared outcome, but not a structural reset. The 90-day tariff truce removes the most extreme near-term decoupling risk, with US tariffs on Chinese imports cut from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods reduced from 125% to 10%.

That is market-positive, but the substance remains limited. The key issues - technology restrictions, rare earths, AI governance, Taiwan and strategic competition - remain unresolved. Boeing orders, fentanyl cooperation and limited H200 chip approvals are constructive headlines, but they do not change the underlying direction of travel.

The market reaction therefore looked reasonable: relief that the worst-case scenario was avoided, but not enough substance to justify treating this as a durable de-escalation. The new risk is simply deferred to mid-August, when the 90-day clock expires. Taiwan remains the main tail risk.

Week Ahead

As of Friday, roughly 455 S&P 500 companies had reported 1Q26 results, with around 83% beating EPS estimates. The season is therefore largely complete, but next week still matters because it brings two important checks on the market narrative: Nvidia and AI infrastructure, and US consumer demand through major retailers.

Next week is less broad than the peak of earnings season, but still relevant for several market-sensitive areas. The focus shifts toward AI semis, consumer spending, housing, China ADRs, enterprise software and selected industrial/logistics names.

• AI infrastructure - Nvidia, Vertiv- As always in the last few years, the most important report of the earning season. Nvidia will be the key test for the AI capex cycle, datacenter demand and whether the recent rally in AI-linked equities still has earnings support. Vertiv should add useful read on datacenter power/cooling infrastructure and broader semiconductor supply-chain demand.

• Retail / consumer - Walmart, Target, Urban Outfitters - This group should give a cleaner read on the US consumer after a strong market rebound and renewed inflation concerns from energy. The focus will be on traffic, pricing, discretionary demand, inventory levels and whether value retailers continue to outperform more cyclical discretionary categories.

• Housing / home improvement - Home Depot, Lowe’s - Useful read on housing turnover, renovation demand and consumer willingness to spend on big-ticket home-related items. The key question is whether lower activity remains manageable or whether higher rates and affordability pressure are still weighing on volumes.

• China - Baidu, NIO The focus will be on whether China tech and consumer activity are improving fundamentally or still relying mainly on policy support. NIO will be watched for EV pricing pressure and margins, while Baidu should provide a read on advertising, AI monetisation and online consumption.

• Industrials / shipping - Deere, ZIM, Global Ship Lease - The focus will be on equipment demand, freight rates, used-car activity and global trade volumes. Deere is the main macro-industrial read, while shipping names will be useful given the recent volatility in energy, freight and geopolitical risk.

Updated Equity Research

This week, four companies in our coverage universe have reported earnings, and the market has reacted to them with significant volatility. Our view on these companies differs materially from the market’s reaction. Today, through a rigorous analysis of their situation — earnings, operating trends, balance sheet evolution, capital allocation, cash generation, operating leverage, updated valuation, and more — we explain where we see opportunity and where we do not.

• Sky Harbour - US-based developer and operator of private aviation campuses at major airports, offering long-term hangar leases to high-net-worth aircraft owners. Early stage company with growing portfolio.

• HBX Group - B2B travel distribution platform connecting hotels with wholesale buyers, including tour operators, travel agencies and airlines worldwide. Deleveraging, share buybacks and takeover rumours.

• Corporacion America - Airport operator running 52 airports across Argentina, Brazil, Italy, Uruguay, Armenia and Ecuador, with new tenders in Angola and Iraq. Healthy balance sheet and double-digit growth.

• NewPrinces - Family-controlled European food platform built through M&A, with exposure to pasta, dairy, bakery, canned foods, fish and beverages. The group owns a majority stake in UK-listed Princes and recently acquired Carrefour Italy.

Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to the website so they can be found more quickly.)

HBX Group operates as a large-scale B2B travel distribution platform, sitting between hotels and a global network of distributors such as tour operators, online agencies, airlines and retail travel agencies. The group does not sell rooms directly to consumers. It acts as part of the infrastructure layer of the travel ecosystem, processing billions of euros in accommodation transaction value through its technology platform and extensive direct hotel contracting network.

The company reported another operationally solid semester. However, management revised guidance downwards due to the impact that the Middle East conflict is having on global travel flows and on the industry more broadly, with the shares moving back close to historical lows since the IPO.

The company itself is taking advantage of this weakness through buybacks. Since announcing its €100MM repurchase programme on February 13, HBX has already executed more than 20% of the programme. In parallel, several Spanish media outlets have published reports in recent weeks regarding potential takeover interest in the company.

Today, we focus on understanding HBX’s current positioning and what investors should expect over the short and medium term. In particular, we analyse:

• The 1H26 results in detail, including the apparent contradiction between strong TTV growth, lower take rates, margin expansion and another downward revision to FY26 guidance

• The impact of the Middle East conflict on travel flows, booking patterns and regional performance, as well as what management’s assumptions imply for the seasonally more important 2H26

• The sustainability of HBX’s business model, including take rate pressure, competitive dynamics, direct contracting trends and whether current monetisation levels should be treated as cyclical or structural

• Cost discipline, operating leverage, balance sheet evolution and capital allocation, including the ongoing buyback programme and the broader post-IPO financial transformation of the company

• Our updated DCF valuation after incorporating lower monetisation assumptions, slower margin expansion and a higher discount rate following the repeated guidance resets since the IPO

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Sky Harbour Group (NYSE: SKYH) is an aviation infrastructure company building a nationwide network of private hangar campuses for business aviation in the United States. The proposition is simple: give private jet owners a dedicated, premium and purpose-built home for their aircraft, rather than forcing them into the traditional FBO model, where hangar space is often shared, fragmented and scarce. In practice, the company is trying to institutionalise a niche of aviation real estate that has historically been fragmented, underbuilt and difficult to replicate because airport land is limited and new supply takes time to develop.

Sky Harbour’s current portfolio is a mix of mature campuses, assets still in lease-up, campuses under construction and development sites that already carry cost but not yet revenue. That is the difficult part of the story: the company is building ahead of the income statement. Sky Harbour reported 1Q26 results after the close on Thursday, and the stock fell roughly 10% on Friday, mainly because consolidated operating cash flow turned negative again after the apparent breakeven reached in 4Q25.

The key issue is whether that sell-off was reacting to real deterioration or to the usual noise of a company still in build-out mode. 1Q26 had several encouraging datapoints: OPF Phase II opened 68% pre-leased at rents well above original underwriting, re-leasing spreads remained high, and the Obligated Group continued to show positive cash generation from the more mature asset base. But there were also points that deserve scrutiny: Denver remains in ramp-up, development costs are still running ahead of revenue, Seattle/Boeing Field disappeared from the pipeline, and the 2027-2028 cohort still needs to be delivered and leased at economics close to those now embedded in the model. The issue is less near-term funding than execution, cost control and the capital required beyond the currently committed programme.

Today, we review in detail:

• The 1Q26 consolidated results, including the negative operating cash flow, the seasonal items affecting 1Q, …

• The 2026 exit run-rate guidance, what it implies for full-year revenue, and the occupancy bridge required at Opa-locka Phase II, DVT and APA

• Leasing performance across the operating portfolio, including Opa-locka Phase II pricing, re-leasing spreads, Tier 1 rent assumptions and the slower ramp at Denver

• The development pipeline, including the timing of BDL, ADS Phase II and SLC, the next layer of projects, Phase II economics and the early Ascend construction cost datapoints

• The updated valuation model and how the 1Q26 results affect our assumptions, target price and sensitivity range

• Our view on Sky Harbour after the post-results sell-off, including what has improved, what remains unresolved, and how we think about the current risk/reward setup

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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Kosmos Energy - Highly leveraged Oil & Gas producer has just reported its 1Q26 results. We analyse whether the rise in the share price already reflects all of the improving operations, higher oil prices, and lower capex intensity, whether there is still upside left, or whether the investment case is starting to become quite risky.

• Sanlorenzo - One of the leading players in the global luxury yacht industry, with strong brand positioning and backlog visibility, in a market now facing softer industry demand after several years of exceptional conditions.

• Excelerate Energy - The world’s largest dedicated FSRU operator, positioned around long-duration LNG infrastructure contracts and the growing global need for regasification capacity.

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

A week of new all-time highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, with US equities continuing to separate from most global markets, Japan and South Korea aside. The move has been led by technology, the semiconductor trade and the recovery in the Magnificent 7, which are now up c.26% from the March 30 market low. The SOXX index is up 64% YTD.

The three main drivers behind this week’s move were clear: a very strong 1Q26 earnings season, with 84% of S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates; macro data that came in better than feared, particularly on the labor market; and positive headlines around a potential end to the Middle East war, even if the credibility of those headlines remains highly questionable.

1) Earnings season

Earnings were again the main support for the market this week, particularly in technology and semiconductors. 1Q26 season continues to deliver: 84% of S&P 500 reporters have beaten EPS estimates, with 89% of the index already reported - the highest hit rate since 2Q21. Blended earnings growth is tracking close to 28%, the strongest since 4Q21. Ten of eleven sectors are reporting positive YoY earnings growth, with seven in double digits. The forward 12-month P/E now stands at 21.0x, above both the five- and ten-year averages.

The oil shock is only partly visible in these numbers, with the move in crude coming late in the quarter. Still, the data are useful: corporate profitability entered the shock from a position of strength, and that should provide some cushion unless oil moves materially higher from here.

Tech remains the clearest expression of that strength. The AI investment cycle continues to support earnings momentum, and semiconductors have been the main winner so far.

2) Macro

The main macro support this week came from the labor market. April payrolls rose by 115k, well above the 55k expected, while unemployment held at 4.3%. Wage growth also cooled to 0.2% MoM and 3.6% YoY, which is the important part in the current environment: higher energy prices are not yet feeding into wages. For equities, this is a good mix - the labor market is not breaking, but it is not hot enough to force the Fed into a more hawkish stance.

This is relevant because labor was one of the main concerns coming into 2026, after a very weak hiring backdrop in 2025. The latest data look better: private job gains have rebounded, hiring appears broader across sectors, claims remain low and households are reporting slightly better conditions to find work. The Fed still held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and the transition from Powell to Warsh adds policy uncertainty, but this week’s macro message was simpler: growth is holding up better than feared, while the wage channel is not yet amplifying the oil shock.

3) Middle East

Another week, another Axios report pointing to a possible end to the Iran war. Oil sold off aggressively, equities rallied to fresh highs and the market once again treated the headline as a meaningful reduction in tail risk. The timing also raised eyebrows, with well-timed crude short positions reportedly opened shortly before publication of the story and closed shortly after the move lower in oil.

We still think markets are becoming too complacent around the physical impact of the conflict. Even if a diplomatic solution is eventually reached, inventories have already tightened materially, shipping through Hormuz remains under pressure and several banks - including Goldman - continue to assume disruptions extending well into 2H26. In our view, equity markets are focusing on the removal of the “peak fear premium” in oil, while largely ignoring the lagged impact that sustained inventory draws and supply disruptions could still have on inflation and growth over the coming quarters.

The Week Ahead

Next week is much less macro-defining than the recent mega-cap-heavy calendar, but still relevant for several high-beta areas of the market. The focus shifts toward AI infrastructure, semis, crypto-linked equities, fintech, China tech and energy-related names.

• AI infrastructure / semis (Applied Materials, Cisco, Oklo) - This remains the most important part of the calendar. The focus will be on semiconductor equipment demand, networking spend linked to AI datacenters and whether the power/nuclear theme continues attracting capital after the recent rally in AI infrastructure names.

• Fintech (Circle, Nu, Klarna) - Useful read on stablecoin activity, digital banking, consumer credit and broader risk appetite. This group should help show whether liquidity and speculative appetite remain supportive for fintech and crypto-linked equities.

• China / online platforms (Alibaba, Sea, Wix) - The focus will be on whether China tech stabilisation is becoming more fundamental rather than policy-driven, while Sea and Wix should provide a cleaner read on online spending, software demand and SME activity.

• Energy / materials (Constellation Energy, Barrick, NextDecade) - Energy and materials names will be judged on cash flow, commodity price realisation and project execution. Constellation and NextDecade are also relevant for the broader AI power demand and LNG infrastructure narratives.

Updated Equity Research - Kosmos Energy, Sanlorenzo, Excelerate Energy

Today we update our view on three very different businesses currently trading through periods where market perception and underlying fundamentals are diverging.

For each company, we review the latest results, operating trends, balance-sheet evolution, capital allocation and updated valuation. More importantly, we focus on the variables that are actually driving the equity story - balance-sheet evolution, cash generation, operating leverage and whether the current setup is structurally improving or simply benefiting from short-term conditions.

• Kosmos Energy - Highly leveraged Oil & Gas producer has just reported its 1Q26 results. We analyse whether the rise in the share price already reflects all of the improving operations, higher oil prices, and lower capex intensity, whether there is still upside left, or whether the investment case is starting to become quite risky.

• Sanlorenzo - One of the leading players in the global luxury yacht industry, with strong brand positioning and backlog visibility, in a market now facing softer industry demand after several years of exceptional conditions.

• Excelerate Energy - The world’s largest dedicated FSRU operator, positioned around long-duration LNG infrastructure contracts and the growing global need for regasification capacity.

Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to the website so they can be found more quickly.)

Sanlorenzo

Sanlorenzo is one of the leading companies in the global luxury yacht industry. Founded in 1958, the group historically built its reputation in the 30-40 metre yacht segment, where it has been one of the global reference players for more than a decade. However, Sanlorenzo as it exists today cannot be understood without Massimo Perotti, its current CEO and controlling shareholder, who acquired the company in 2005 and transformed it into a much broader luxury yachting platform.

Since Perotti’s acquisition, the transformation has been substantial. Revenue has grown from roughly €40MM at the time of acquisition to €960MM of Net Revenues New Yachts in 2025, implying a CAGR of approximately 17% over two decades. The company opened its Viareggio shipyard in 2007 for larger superyachts, expanded the traditional yacht business through the SD, SX and SP ranges, built Bluegame into a differentiated sport and chase boat brand, and more recently entered sailing yachts through the acquisition of Nautor Swan.

The industry backdrop has changed materially since the post-pandemic peak. Order intake across the sector has normalised, demand visibility is lower, and investors have become more cautious on the entire luxury yacht space. Sanlorenzo listed in Milan in December 2019 at €16/share, with a market capitalisation slightly above €500MM; today, the company has a market cap of roughly €1.2Bn, after having grown EBITDA to ~€181MM in 2025.

This is precisely why the distinction between companies matters more now than it did during the boom years. Sanlorenzo, The Italian Sea Group and Ferretti are often grouped together by the market, but their business mix, backlog quality, balance-sheet position and execution profiles are materially different. The sector is softer, but not all companies enter this phase with the same starting point.

Today, we review Sanlorenzo’s latest results, order intake, backlog, financial position, updated DCF valuation with the new 2026-2028 strategic plan… The key question is not whether the industry is softer - it clearly is - but whether Sanlorenzo’s current fundamentals and medium-term targets remain credible under a more normalised demand environment.

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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Tullow Oil - Ghana asset base, capital structure and refinancing analysis, cash flow profile under multiple scenarios, hedging, PIK and interest impact, DCF valuation

• Fortress Infrastructure - Sale of Long Ridge, Capital structure & valuation analysis

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

The main indices had a strong week, supported by better-than-expected earnings, upward revisions to 2026 earnings expectations and resilient mega-cap technology results. The S&P 500 closed April up 10%, its best month since November 2020, despite the continued rise in energy prices.

The market has therefore repeated a familiar pattern: a sharp V-shaped recovery back to all-time highs. The difference is that this time the recovery is being supported not only by multiple expansion, but also by improving forward earnings. That said, higher energy prices and a less comfortable inflation backdrop remain important offsets.

Earnings season

Last week was the key week of 1Q26 earnings season, with 181 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft. The aggregate picture remains solid. With 63% of the index reported, 84% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, above both the five-year and ten-year averages, while the average earnings surprise stands at 20.7%, the highest since 1Q21.

The market’s recovery has not been purely multiple-driven. Forward S&P 500 earnings have continued to move higher, and equity prices remain closely aligned with that earnings trajectory. Consensus now expects earnings growth to remain in the mid-to-high teens through 2026, with quarterly growth ranging from 15% to 21%.

At the company level, the week confirmed two points.

1. The largest technology platforms continue to deliver resilient revenue and earnings growth. Alphabet and Amazon were the clearest examples, both reporting results comfortably ahead of expectations.

2. AI capex remains structurally high. Meta raised its 2026 capex guidance to $125-145Bn, while cloud and AI-related demand remained strong across the group. The market continues to underwrite this level of investment, although the required evidence of monetisation is increasing.

Earnings are still providing the market with a credible fundamental anchor. For now, stronger profits, higher forward estimates and visible AI monetization are offsetting part of the macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Macro

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the meeting was less straightforward than the headline suggests. Powell leaned on a “wait and see” stance, while acknowledging inflation is becoming less comfortable again and internal disagreement is becoming more visible. The takeaway is not a hawkish pivot, but a Fed with less room to validate near-term cuts.

• Decision and internal split: rates on hold, but with four dissenting votes - the highest since 1992. One member supported a 25bps cut, while others pushed back against including an explicit easing bias.

• Monetary policy stance: Powell reiterated that policy is “well positioned” to wait and observe. The current stance was described as between neutral and slightly restrictive, with flexibility to move in either direction.

• Inflation: the statement slightly hardened its language, shifting from “somewhat elevated” to “elevated.” Powell acknowledged a real risk of renewed pressure on core inflation, reducing urgency for cuts.

• Energy and growth: Powell downplayed the relative impact of oil on the US versus Europe and Asia, but flagged risks to gasoline prices and expectations. At the same time, he emphasized that the economy remains resilient, with demand - including for data centers - holding up.

US GDP growth rebounded to 2.0% annualized in 1Q26, up from 0.5% in 4Q25, but the composition was less reassuring than the headline. Part of the acceleration reflected mechanical support from the rebound in federal employee compensation after the 4Q25 government shutdown, alongside defense spending linked to Iran.

The more relevant signal was mixed. Final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerated to 2.5%, suggesting the private sector remains resilient. However, inflation moved in the wrong direction, with headline PCE at 4.5% annualized and core PCE at 4.3%. For the Fed, this is an uncomfortable combination: enough underlying growth to avoid an immediate downturn narrative, but too much inflation to validate near-term easing.

The Week Ahead

Next week will be less concentrated than this week’s Magnificent Seven-heavy calendar, but still relevant for several parts of the market. The focus shifts from mega-cap technology to a broader mix of consumer, payments, industrials, energy and software names.

The main names to watch are:

• AI infrastructure / semis (AMD, ARM, Arista, Supermicro) - This remains the most important part of the calendar. The focus will be on data center demand, AI server momentum, networking, margins and whether capex from the hyperscalers is translating into broader supply-chain revenue.

• Payments / fintech / digital platforms (Shopify, PayPal, Block, Coinbase, MercadoLibre, Affirm) - Useful read on online spending, payment volumes, credit quality, crypto activity and broader risk appetite. This group should help show whether consumer and SME demand remains resilient.

• Consumer / restaurants (McDonald’s, Yum!, Wendy’s, Tyson, Celsius, Duolingo, Pinterest) - The focus will be on pricing power, traffic, volumes and advertising demand. This should give a cleaner read on whether the consumer slowdown is broadening or remains contained.

• Energy / infrastructure (Enbridge, Williams, Aramco, Marathon Petroleum) - Energy names will be judged on cash flow, capex discipline, production, refining margins and shareholder returns, particularly after the recent move in energy prices.

The week should therefore help broaden the earnings picture beyond the mega-cap platforms. The key question is whether the strength seen in index-level earnings is still concentrated in a narrow group of leaders, or whether it is starting to appear across a wider range of sectors.

Initial Equity Research - Tullow Oil

As part of our extensive coverage of Kosmos Energy, and in light of the latest developments at Tullow - a company that shares Kosmos’ two Ghana assets, Jubilee and TEN - we are publishing this Tullow deep dive. For Tullow, after years of disposals and balance sheet pressure, Ghana is effectively the company.

Tullow Oil was once one of the best-known independent oil producers in Africa. The company built its reputation around exploration success, particularly in Ghana, and for years represented a classic mid-cap E&P story: producing assets, development optionality and exploration upside across several African basins. That story effectively broke in 2019. Production disappointments, reserve downgrades, governance change and excessive leverage forced Tullow into a major reset. The company did not enter a formal restructuring at that point, but the equity case changed materially: growth was replaced by balance sheet repair, portfolio simplification and refinancing risk.

The following years were therefore not a real recovery, but a prolonged attempt to stabilise the company. Tullow reduced activity, cut costs, refinanced debt, sold assets and narrowed its operating footprint. What had previously been a broader Africa-focused E&P portfolio gradually became a much smaller group centred on Ghana, with Jubilee and TEN carrying most of the operating and financial burden.

The last twelve months have completed that transition. Tullow sold its Gabon interests and disposed of its Kenyan assets for minimum cash consideration of $120MM after years of limited progress on development. Together, these transactions reduced financial pressure but also removed much of the remaining portfolio optionality. Today, Tullow is fundamentally a different company: a Ghana-focused producer, dependent on Jubilee and TEN, with limited diversification and a capital structure that still dominates the equity case.

The 2026 refinancing materially improves Tullow’s near-term position. The company extended the maturity of its senior secured notes from May 2026 to November 2028, extended the Glencore facility to May 2030, reduced near-term cash interest and secured more than $200MM of liquidity headroom. This gives Tullow more time to test whether the stronger oil-price environment and improved operating momentum can translate into residual equity value. However, the refinancing is not a full balance sheet reset. It comes with a more complex debt structure, including PIK debt, a pro-forma net debt increase from $1,353MM to $1,529MM, and conditions that effectively require the company to pursue a strategic transaction within the next two years.

That improved operating momentum is already visible. 1Q26 production averaged 43.4 kboepd, above the level implied by Tullow’s 2026 guidance, and management now expects the company to finish the year near the high end of the range if current performance continues. This is broadly consistent with what we argued in our November Kosmos deep dive: Tullow’s 2026 guidance looked conservative and may have been influenced by the creditor negotiation process.

That is why we believe that Tullow is worth revisiting now. The refinancing has moved the debate away from immediate default risk and towards residual equity value. The question is no longer whether Tullow survives 2026, but whether the company can generate enough cash, in the current oil-price environment, to make the equity relevant again.

That requires answering four questions: how much cash Ghana can generate at today’s Brent prices, how much of that cash is retained after hedges, interest and PIK accrual, what value Jubilee could command in a transaction, and whether the next two years are enough to convert operational improvement into a balance sheet solution.

This is not a standard recovery case. It is a balance-sheet-driven equity option on Ghana and Brent, with limited time to work. Our objective in this report is to assess whether, under the current oil-price environment, that option still offers enough residual value for shareholders.

In today’s report, we analyse:

• Tullow asset base (Jubilee & TEN) production decline, Capex program, operating costs, break even…

• New capital structure after the 2026 refinancing, including the maturity extension, PIK component, liquidity runway and the strategic transaction requirement.

• The cash generation profile over the next 18 months under different Brent scenarios, including the impact of hedging and the realistic deleveraging capacity

• The potential value of Jubilee under several sale scenarios, and what that could imply for the equity after accounting for accumulated FCF and remaining debt.

• Independent valuation of Tullow, including our (downloadable) DCF model, scenario analysis, target price and investment view.

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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Kistos Holdings

• Edenred

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

It was a mixed week across global equity markets. In the US, the Nasdaq 100 moved to new all-time highs, supported by continued strength in AI-linked stocks, better-than-feared earnings and still-resilient economic data. The S&P 500 also moved higher, although to a lesser extent, as technology and semiconductor stocks have a smaller weighting in the index.

Outside the US, the tone was more cautious. The limited impact of last week’s announced ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict kept pressure on shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil prices sharply higher again. With the conflict now entering its third month, the market has started to price the situation less as a temporary geopolitical headline and more as a persistent energy shock. In our view, the longer this lasts, the harder it becomes to treat the inflationary impact as temporary. Higher energy and logistics costs are now beginning to feed into the economy in a more structural way.

The first-order impact has been visible in physical energy flows. Tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed after the start of the war and have only recovered partially since then. This matters because the disruption has direct implications for energy logistics, insurance costs and supply-chain risk.

That disruption is reflected in the oil curve. Brent futures have repriced sharply higher across the entire forward curve, with the front end moving above $100/bbl and even 2027 contracts trading materially above pre-war levels. The move is therefore not just a short-term spike in spot prices, but a broader reassessment of energy risk over the next several quarters.

The important point is that the shock is not affecting all markets in the same way. In the US, the impact on 2026 earnings expectations has so far been relatively contained. There have been some downgrades in the most energy-sensitive sectors, particularly consumer discretionary and industrials, but the broader earnings picture remains constructive. Growth expectations are still positive across most sectors, and the aggregate revisions do not yet suggest a material deterioration in the corporate outlook.

The macro data tells a similar story

• The U.S. consumer remains more resilient than sentiment suggests. March retail sales were strong even beyond the gasoline effect, with control-group sales up +0.7% MoM and prior months revised higher. Higher energy prices are clearly a headwind, but tax refunds and lower withholdings appear to be cushioning the impact on household spending for now.

• Business activity improved, but the quality of the rebound was mixed. The April flash PMI rose to 52.0, helped by a stronger manufacturing print and some recovery in services. That said, part of the manufacturing strength seems linked to inventory building and supply concerns rather than a clean acceleration in end-demand.

• Inflation remains the main macro constraint, not growth. Gasoline prices pushed headline spending higher, while the University of Michigan’s 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 3.8% in March and S&P Global’s PMI showed output prices increasing at the fastest pace in nearly four years.

For now, the US market is not rallying only on hope. Earnings revisions, corporate results and activity data are still providing support, even as the inflation backdrop remains more complicated. That is the balance markets are trying to price: activity and earnings are holding up, but the oil shock reduces the margin for error on rates, margins and policy expectations.

The Week Ahead

The 1Q26 earnings season reaches its most important week, with most of the large-cap companies that matter for index direction now reporting. After the initial read from banks and financials, the focus shifts to mega-cap technology, AI capex, cloud, advertising, energy, payments and large defensives.

The timing also matters. The market has already recovered a meaningful part of the recent drawdown, so the bar is no longer especially low. This week needs to confirm that earnings, guidance and capex plans still support the valuation attached to the largest companies in the index.

• Mega-cap tech / AI capex (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN) - The main event of the week. The focus will be on cloud growth, AI monetisation, capex intensity, advertising resilience and margin pressure. Apple and Meta also report, but the broader question is whether the market can still justify the scale of AI-related investment across the largest platforms.

• AI infrastructure (QCOM, WDC, APH) - Useful read on whether AI demand is broadening beyond the obvious winners. Storage, connectivity and component suppliers should help show how much of the data centre cycle is already flowing through the wider supply chain.

• Payments / consumer platforms (V, MA, SPOT) - Visa and Mastercard will be the cleanest reads on consumer spending, cross-border volumes and nominal transaction growth. Spotify adds a read-through on digital subscriptions, pricing and platform monetisation.

• Energy / cyclicals (XOM, CVX, CAT) - Energy majors will be judged on cash flow, production, capex discipline and buybacks. Caterpillar should give a broader read on cyclical demand, pricing and whether customers are becoming more cautious.

• Healthcare / defensives (LLY, MRK, HUM) - Lilly remains the key single-name event given the GLP-1 expectations embedded in the stock. Merck provides a broader large pharma read, while Humana will be important for managed care and medical cost trends.

On the macro side, the Fed meeting sits in the middle of the week, with Q1 GDP and March PCE inflation following on Thursday. The market is not only testing earnings execution, but also whether growth and inflation data remain consistent with the recent rebound. After the move in equities, the key question is whether fundamentals are still validating the rally, or whether expectations have again moved too far ahead of the data.

Kistos Holdings - Updated Equity Research

Kistos is a small-cap energy company that long-time MORAM readers will know well. We were very active in the name between 2021 and 2023, when the company combined a strong capital allocation track record, exposure to discounted European gas assets and a market environment shaped by energy security, gas scarcity and asset divestments. That thesis was ultimately damaged by the European windfall-tax cycle, which in our view severely undermined the case for investing in upstream energy assets in Europe.

For those who were not following us at the time, Kistos was founded by Andrew Austin and much of the former RockRose team shortly after the sale of RockRose Energy to Viaro in 2020. RockRose had been one of the more unusual success stories in the London-listed energy space, delivering a 42x return to shareholders between 2016 and 2020 through counter-cyclical acquisitions of mature and non-core assets in the UK and wider North Sea. Kistos was launched as a second attempt to apply a similar model.

• The first version of Kistos was built around European gas, mainly through Tulip Oil in the Netherlands and the Greater Laggan Area in the UK. That phase worked very well initially, but it also exposed the limits of the model when commodity prices normalised and governments changed the economics of upstream cash flows.

• The second version of Kistos is an attempt to move beyond that model. The company is trying to rebuild the portfolio outside the European fiscal and regulatory framework where windfall taxes have reduced the incentive to invest in oil and gas production, weakening Europe’s energy security. Norway was the first step in that repositioning. Through the Mime acquisition, Kistos gained exposure to Balder/Ringhorne. A brownfield asset base, but it is less mature than the UK and Dutch gas assets. Oman was the second step, with the acquisition signed in December. The interests in Blocks 3 & 4 and Block 9 add immediate oil-weighted production, meaningful 2P reserves and close to half of Kistos’ pro forma production base. It also gives the company its first Middle East platform, but in a geography that does not require export flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

That is, many things have changed over these last three years, and we believe that the closing (announced this week) of the acquisition of Blocks 3 and 4 in Oman is the perfect catalyst to publish a deep analysis of this company, which we had been following closely again for several months.

Today is not just any analysis. Today we take another in-depth look at the situation of a company to which we devoted hundreds of hours in 2021 and 2022, aiming to explain its current reality and to determine the scale of the potential opportunity following its re-rating over the past 18 months. From a standpoint of knowledge, a critical perspective, and a strong commitment to objectivity.

In this updated equity research, we analyse:

• The current asset base across Oman, Norway, the UK and the Netherlands, and how the portfolio has changed since the original European gas thesis.

• The production profile of each main asset, including maturity, decline, commodity exposure and expected contribution over the next few years.

• The economics of the portfolio, including capex needs, tax exposure, field-level cash generation and sensitivity to oil and gas prices.

• The balance sheet, liquidity position and remaining financial flexibility

• Our valuation of Kistos under different commodity price, production and tax assumptions.

• Our independent view on the company and the potential opportunity ahead

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Pluxee - Updated Equity Research

• Ecoener - Updated Equity Research

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

The S&P 500 closed the week at new highs after another strong rebound, helped first by the reduction in perceived geopolitical tail risk, but also by a market that is starting to see that the macro backdrop is not deteriorating as much as feared. After several weeks in which Middle East headlines, oil and rates dominated almost everything, this week added a second layer of support: softer-than-expected PPI, still-contained jobless claims, and an initial batch of earnings that was good enough to reinforce the idea that the U.S. economy remains relatively firm. Over the weekend, however, the picture became slightly less clear again: talks between the U.S. and Iran did not produce a final agreement, and while the ceasefire still appears to be holding for now, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has re-emerged.

• The market has materially reduced the probability of a prolonged geopolitical shock - The main change behind the rebound is that investors no longer appear to be pricing the most severe Middle East and oil scenario. The ceasefire has held for now, the tone around the Strait of Hormuz has improved, and the market has moved from pricing a potentially prolonged disruption to something closer to a temporary shock. That said, this weekend’s developments are a reminder that the market is no longer pricing the worst-case scenario, but nor is the geopolitical risk fully gone, particularly if negotiations stall again or tensions around Hormuz re-escalate.

• Oil and rates have stopped acting as a double headwind - Once crude came off the highs and bond yields remained relatively contained, one of the main pressures on equities eased. The issue was never just oil in isolation, but the risk that higher energy prices would feed into inflation expectations, tighter financial conditions and weaker risk appetite at the same time.

• Macro is holding up better than feared - This week’s data also helped. U.S. producer prices came in softer than expected, while initial jobless claims fell to 207k in the week ended April 11. The message is not that the economy is reaccelerating, but that the U.S. backdrop still looks firmer than many had feared when oil spiked and geopolitical tensions intensified.

• Earnings have started well enough - The first part of the reporting season has not given the market a reason to derisk. Large banks broadly delivered solid numbers, while Delta also reported a strong start and guided to low-teens revenue growth for the June quarter. That has helped reinforce the view that corporate fundamentals are still holding up despite the recent macro noise.

• The market still sees profit growth ahead - Beyond the first few reports, the broader earnings backdrop has also remained supportive. Expectations for full-year S&P 500 profit growth have moved higher, which helps explain why the rebound has not just been about some easing in geopolitical fears, but also about a market that is still willing to trust the broader earnings outlook.

Week Ahead

After the first real week of 1Q26 earnings - where the large banks broadly delivered solid numbers, Delta also started well, and Netflix disappointed a market that had gone in with high expectations - next week is the first one that already feels properly heavy and much more diversified. After several weeks in which macro, oil and geopolitics dominated almost everything, this should be one of the first more meaningful tests of company-specific execution across a broader part of the market.

• AI infrastructure / semiconductor (Vertiv, Intel, Texas Instruments) - Probably one of the most relevant blocks of the week. The key issue is whether results and commentary still support the strength of the current AI infrastructure cycle, and whether the tone on orders, capex and broader industrial demand remains firm enough to sustain the market’s current expectations.

• Industrials (GE Vernova, Boeing, RTX) - A useful block to read across power, aerospace and broader industrial execution. More than headline EPS, the focus should be on demand visibility, margin progression and whether management teams still sound constructive on the underlying cyclical backdrop.

• Payments / market activity (American Express, Capital One, Blackstone) - Likely one of the cleanest reads on spending, credit and broader financial activity outside the banks. The focus should be on volumes, asset gathering, credit quality and management commentary on both households and corporates.

• Tesla - One of the week’s clearest single-name focal points, not just because of the size of the stock, but because it remains an important read-through for EV demand, pricing discipline and how much margin pressure the market is still willing to tolerate in exchange for growth. In that sense, the result matters beyond Tesla itself.

Updated Equity Research - Pluxee

Pluxee is an employee benefits company, mainly known in Europe for meal vouchers (Ticket Restaurant), but also active across other benefit verticals such as gym memberships, childcare, mobility and digital rewards. The group operates in 31 countries and serves more than 36 million users, 500,000 corporate clients and 1.7 million affiliated merchants. Its business model is particularly attractive because, beyond acting as an intermediary and earning commissions in a network where all participants derive value, it also benefits from a distinctive financial dynamic. Corporates deposit cash at month-end to fund employee benefits, yet employees take roughly seven weeks on average to spend that money. During that period, Pluxee earns interest income on the cash float. The result has been EBITDA margins above 36% and an EBITDA-to-FCF conversion rate of around 80%.

Pluxee was listed on 1 February 2024 as a spin-off from Sodexo at €26 per share. Bellon S.A. currently controls 46.16% of the ordinary share capital and 62.30% of the voting rights. Since then, however, the stock has de-rated heavily and now trades at €12.11, implying a decline of 53.4% from its initial reference price. This has not been the result of a single disappointment, but rather a prolonged market re-rating driven mainly by two issues: the sustainability of float-driven earnings in a lower-rate environment, and more importantly the regulatory risk affecting some of the group’s most important markets, notably France, Italy and especially Brazil. Brazil has been the key overhang throughout, given both its weight in the business and the extent to which regulatory changes can affect underlying profitability.

Set against that backdrop, the underlying business continues to grow, as shown by the 1H26 results, while management is also using buybacks to support the stock. As of 19 April, we estimate that roughly 89% of the €100MM programme had been executed and that treasury shares could approach 6.8% of the company if the programme is completed by end-April.

The key question, therefore, is not whether Pluxee is a good business in the abstract. It is whether the current valuation already discounts the bulk of the regulatory and earnings risks now hanging over the story, or whether the apparent cheapness simply reflects a business whose profit profile is becoming structurally less attractive and increasingly conditioned by government decisions.

Our goal today is to revisit the reality of the company and provide an in-depth analysis to answer a simple question: does today’s risk-reward reflect a genuine opportunity or a classic value trap? To do so, we cover:

• Pluxee’s business model from scratch, including operating revenue, float and the core mechanics of the business

• FY26 results in detail, and what to expect over the coming quarters in light of the new regulations in Brazil, while also considering potential implications in France and Italy

• Our forecasts for revenue, EBITDA and EPS, including the potential impact of Brazilian regulation in 2026-2027

• The company’s economics, valuation and capital structure

• The key drivers we believe could move the stock over the short and medium term

• Our independent view on Pluxee, its valuation, and our playbook from here

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Italian Wine Brands

• Catana Group

• NewPrinces

• Kosmos Energy

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

A strong relief week for global risk assets, driven primarily by the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The immediate reaction was most visible in the assets that had absorbed the largest geopolitical risk premium over the prior days: oil fell sharply, equities rallied, and markets briefly moved back into a more constructive risk-on regime. Emerging markets, Japan and crypto were among the main beneficiaries of that shift in sentiment, while U.S. indices posted their strongest weekly gains since November.

At the same time, the speed of the rebound also confirmed that equities remain highly reactive to any sign that geopolitical stress may stop worsening. In our view, the move makes sense mechanically after the previous de-risking, but it still says little about the durability of the recovery. From here, markets are likely to remain extremely headline-sensitive, particularly to anything related to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which energy markets normalize. That remains true after Sunday’s U.S.-Iran talks ended without an agreement, as markets are still trading a fragile pause rather than a durable resolution.

The key point, is that the market has only removed the peak of the fear premium, not the underlying supply disruption. Brent still finished the week at roughly $95.2/bbl and WTI at $96.6/bbl despite recording their worst weekly declines since 2020. In other words, the oil market is no longer pricing an immediate worst-case scenario, but it is still far from pricing full normalization.

That is also why we would be careful about reading this week’s rally as a full reset. Markets are reacting to a pause in escalation, not to a credible resolution. For energy, freight and inflation-sensitive sectors, the relevant question is not whether oil fell 13% in a day, but whether physical flows normalize over the coming weeks. Until that happens, a meaningful part of the shock remains embedded in the system.

Friday’s March CPI report confirmed that message. Headline inflation rose 0.9% month on month and 3.3% YoY the highest annual reading since May 2024. The driver was overwhelmingly energy: the gasoline index rose 21.2% in March, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 1967, while the broader energy index rose 10.9%. By contrast, core CPI rose just 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year, again suggesting that the inflation shock is, for now, still concentrated in energy rather than broadly embedded across the basket.

For the Fed, the conclusion remains uncomfortable but relatively clear. The central bank has room to stay patient, but not much room to sound relaxed. A core print that remains contained argues against an immediate tightening response, yet the scale of the energy shock makes it difficult to reopen a dovish narrative. If oil remains elevated and second-round effects begin to appear in transportation, logistics, food and other consumer categories, the policy backdrop could become materially more difficult over the next one to two CPI prints.

That is the real issue going into the second half of April. The March data mainly captures the first-order energy shock. The more important question is how much of it starts feeding through into airfares, freight rates, retail pricing and consumer behaviour. In that sense, the market’s interpretation of this CPI report as broadly benign may prove directionally right for the very short term, but it would still be premature to assume that the inflation problem is behind us. Sunday’s U.S.-Iran talks ending without a deal only reinforces that point: this is a pause in escalation, not a clean normalization path.

Next Week

The Q1 2026 earnings season is now getting underway again. As usual, the first meaningful wave is dominated by the large US financial institutions, with the banks and asset managers setting the initial tone for the quarter. That said, this is not just a financials-heavy week. We also have several relevant reports across semiconductors, streaming, staples and healthcare, with names such as ASML, TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott and Johnson & Johnson all due to report.

After a period in which macro, rates and geopolitics had again become the main drivers of market attention, the focus now starts to shift back, at least partially, to company-specific execution. The first set of results should help frame the early debate around capital markets activity, credit quality, AI-related demand and the resilience of both consumer and defensive end markets.

• Financials (JPM, GS, C, WFC, BAC, MS, BLK) – The first real test of the season. Beyond headline EPS, the key areas to watch will be investment banking activity, trading revenue, deposit and loan trends, credit quality and management commentary on both the consumer and corporate backdrop. BlackRock should also provide a useful read on flows, risk appetite and broader market participation.

• Semis / AI capex (ASML, TSMC) – Probably the most important area of the week outside financials. Market will be looking for confirmation that AI-driven demand remains strong, but also for any sign of bottlenecks, normalisation or greater caution at the leading edge. ASML matters for lithography demand and order momentum, while TSMC remains one of the clearest barometers of how real the current AI capex cycle still is.

• Streaming / platform consumer (Netflix) – The focus should remain on subscriber trends, engagement, ad monetisation and pricing. More broadly, Netflix will be another test of whether the market is still willing to reward consistent execution in large-cap platform businesses trading with elevated expectations.

• Defensive consumer & healthcare (PepsiCo, Abbott, Johnson & Johnson) – These names should offer a useful read on volume resilience, pricing, input costs and the tone of demand in more defensive categories.

On the macro side, Tuesday brings the March PPI, which will be watched closely after this week’s CPI surprise. Wednesday brings U.S. import and export prices. Thursday includes weekly jobless claims and the Federal Reserve’s industrial production release for March.

Updated Equity Research - Kosmos Energy, NewPrinces, Italian Wine Brands, Catana Group

Today we bring together the analysis of four companies we first covered - and, in some cases, held in the portfolio - back in 2021, all of which are now undergoing meaningful transformations that we think warrant a fresh look following this week’s new information.

For each of them, we review the current situation, debt profile, independent valuation, and our conclusions on the timing and potential opportunity in each case - which differ quite materially.

• Kosmos Energy - We review the reasons behind Goldman Sachs’ downgrade and the company’s current situation.

• NewPrinces - This week’s management comments and our assessment of the post-results situation.

• Catana Group - A leading company in the catamaran market, with sales currently at the lower end of the cycle and a significant expansion plan underway.

• Italian Wine Brands - One of Italy’s leading wine distributors and a leader in the Prosecco segment, it has completed several M&A transactions in recent years and is now moving into new market segments.

Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to the website so they can be found more quickly.)

Kosmos Energy

Kosmos Energy is a company we have followed since 2020, initially through its connection to Golar LNG in the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) LNG project, where Kosmos - alongside BP - contracted Golar’s FLNG Gimi to monetise its offshore gas resources in Mauritania and Senegal. That link first brought the name onto our radar, although the investment case has evolved materially since then.

We published our initial equity research on Kosmos at the end of 2025 and a subsequent update a few weeks ago, where we reviewed the asset base in detail. At the time, the company’s core portfolio was spread across four main areas:

• Ghana (Jubilee & TEN) - ~31,100 boepd net (4Q25)

• Equatorial Guinea - ~6,200 boepd net (3Q25, asset since agreed for sale to Panoro Energy for up to $220MM)

• Mauritania & Senegal (GTA) - ~14,200 boepd net (4Q25, at nameplate 2.7 mtpa capacity)

• Gulf of America - ~16,900 boepd net (4Q25)

That research also covered in depth the difficulties Kosmos accumulated over several years: COVID-related delays and cost overruns at GTA, operational underperformance and deferred investment at Jubilee - driven in large part by weak reservoir management and a delayed seismic refresh under Tullow’s operatorship - and a series of 2026 guidance publications that implied a steeper decline rate than the well data appeared to support, and which seemed aimed primarily at improving the company’s position in bondholder negotiations. The combined effect was severe: through 2025, the company’s market capitalisation fell by more than 75%, reaching lows below $450MM against a debt load approaching $3.0B and TTM EBITDA struggling to remain above $500MM. At those levels, Kosmos required near-flawless execution across operations, refinancing and asset disposals at the same time.

Since then, the picture has changed materially - though not completely. The Equatorial Guinea sale, a $175MM equity raise completed in March 2026, a new $350MM secured bond and the repayment of the 2026 notes have addressed the most acute liquidity concerns. Net debt now stands at approximately $2.5B. Current production has stepped up to around 75,000 boepd, including Equatorial Guinea, following the J-74 Jubilee well that came online in January, while GTA is running above nameplate. The market has recognised part of that recovery, with the stock re-rating to a market capitalisation of roughly $1.5B, despite this week’s sharp decline following headlines around a potential Middle East ceasefire and Goldman Sachs’ downgrade.

The question now is whether that recovery has already been appropriately priced, or whether meaningful upside still remains - or whether, as Goldman Sachs argued this week with a downgrade to Sell and a $2.25 price target, the market is still being too constructive on a company that remains highly leveraged and exposed to execution risk.

To answer that question, today we look in detail at:

• A full review of Goldman’s note - what we agree with, what we do not, and where we think the analysis overreaches

• Debt and operating profile - a closer look at leverage, refinancing risk, production mix and near-term cash generation

• Detailed DCF valuation - base case, key assumptions and sensitivity analysis across oil price, taxes and financing costs

• An independent view on Kosmos - how we think about the current setup after the capital raise, asset sales and recent market reaction

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• NewPrinces - Deep analysis of the company’s current situation after the first results from the 2025 acquisitions (Carrefour Italy, Plasmon, and Diageo Italy). Separate analysis of Princes UK and Carrefour, calculation of FCF, outlook estimates for 2026–2028, independent valuation, and our thoughts on the current situation after the 30% drop in two days

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

After five consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 finally posted its first weekly gain since the war began, helped by tentative signs that the conflict in the Middle East may be moving toward a more contained phase. Even so, and with the exception of small caps, the major U.S. equity indices remain negative YTD.

The tone of the week was largely driven by headlines around the conflict. After a weak start on Monday, equities rebounded sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a greater willingness to reduce direct U.S. military involvement in Iran. That relief rally faded somewhat after Wednesday night’s presidential address failed to provide any credible roadmap for de-escalation, prompting a renewed rise in oil prices and some pressure on equities early Thursday. Still, by the close of the week, the main indices had recovered most of that weakness and finished in positive territory.

One of the most unusual developments came in oil, where WTI spot closed above Brent - a highly atypical move that reflects an extreme dislocation in the prompt market. The shape of the WTI curve reinforces that view. Backwardation remains very steep, and this week’s strongest price gains were concentrated in the front end, suggesting that the market continues to assign a large premium to immediate barrels while still expecting lower prices over the coming months.

Another highlight of the week was the increasingly differentiated market reaction to the conflict. Despite WTI closing above $111, Energy fell 5.3%, suggesting investors are starting to look beyond the near-term benefit of higher crude prices for producers and focus more on the broader macro cost of sustained oil strength. At the same time, U.S. equities were supported by renewed leadership from large-cap growth, with the Mag 7 among the strongest areas of the market, while gold also moved meaningfully higher, pointing to a market that is reducing tail-risk pricing without fully abandoning defensive positioning. In that context, the 23% decline in the VIX is consistent with a market that increasingly views the conflict as contained, even if far from resolved.

Iran war

The geopolitical backdrop remains highly fluid, but the broader pattern is becoming clearer. Over the past two weeks, the conflict has oscillated between threats of further escalation and intermittent diplomatic signalling, with both sides appearing to use public messaging as much to shape market expectations as to advance any genuine path toward resolution. The underlying reality, however, has changed little: disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remains severe, shipping flows are still heavily constrained, and the market continues to trade the conflict primarily through the lens of immediate energy risk

That dynamic was particularly visible this week. Trump’s claim that Iran had requested a ceasefire helped support a relief rally in risk assets, only for Tehran to reject the statement almost immediately. Subsequent rhetoric from Washington again pointed to possible attacks on Iranian infrastructure, reinforcing the sense that conciliatory headlines are proving far less durable than the underlying escalation risk. On the Iranian side, signals of openness to mediation have continued to coexist with a refusal to accept the terms currently on the table. In practice, both sides still appear to be following the same playbook: de-escalatory rhetoric when needed to relieve pressure, but no meaningful retreat in strategic positioning. Markets, in turn, are becoming less reactive to the rhetoric and more focused on what is actually happening on the ground and around Hormuz.

Macro

• The week’s macro data offered a more nuanced picture than the headline rebound in risk assets might suggest. March non-farm payrolls came in well ahead of expectations at 178K versus 65K consensus, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. February was also revised lower, to -133K from the initially reported -92K, making the rebound more meaningful than the headline alone would suggest. The only softer element was wage growth, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected. In isolation, that is a benign detail, but taken together it leaves the Fed with a less straightforward signal: hiring remains resilient, while wage pressure continues to ease.

• Beneath that, the composition of the data was less reassuring. Services PMI slipped into contraction at 49.8, below both the 51.1 consensus and the prior 51.7, while manufacturing held up better, with ISM Manufacturing at 52.7. That divergence matters. Strong labour data alongside a weakening services economy suggests the shock is not being transmitted evenly. More industrial and capital-intensive segments continue to hold up, while consumer-facing areas of the economy are beginning to reflect the pressure from higher fuel and input costs.

• In Europe, inflation is starting to move in the same direction. German CPI accelerated to 1.1% MoM in March, up from 0.2% previously, offering an early sign that the energy pass-through is beginning to appear in the data. For the ECB, which had been moving gradually toward rate cuts, this is an obvious complication. For European industry, it raises the risk of another period of cost pressure just as the region was beginning to stabilise.

The Week Ahead

The calendar is light next week given the holiday-shortened session, with no major earnings releases until Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands, and Applied Digital report on April 8.

The real calendar item to watch is the OPEC+ meeting, at which members will need to decide whether to press forward with their planned output increase of 206,000 bpd against a backdrop in which Hormuz disruptions are already limiting actual export volumes from Gulf producers. Any signal that Saudi Arabia or the UAE are considering additional voluntary cuts - or conversely, that the coalition fractures under the pressure of high prices and fiscal temptation - will set the tone for oil and energy equities into the following week.

NewPrinces - Updated Equity Research

NewPrinces - formerly Newlat, and controlled by the Mastrolia family since 2008 -closed a extremely difficult week after reporting its FY25 results on Tuesday morning. After rising nearly 10% on the day of the results presentation, the shares went on to fall more than 26% between Wednesday and Thursday, closing at their lowest level of the past 52 weeks.

At MORAM Capital, we have been covering NewPrinces - previously Newlat Food — since late 2022, closely following the company’s transformation into a European agrifood heavyweight through more than 20 acquisitions over the past two decades. The most important of these have taken place since its 2019 IPO, and especially since 2022, allowing the group to grow revenues from around €300 million to more than €6.5 billion and to expand its market capitalisation from below €200 million to more than €1 billion at its peak in the summer of 2025.

However, the last nine months have been highly turbulent, mainly for two reasons: the acquisition of Carrefour Italia - by far the most controversial deal in the company’s history - and the IPO of Princes, its UK manufacturing arm, which also includes the legacy Newlat assets. Both processes have been marked by major communication mistakes and by expectations that were set too high and ultimately not met.

All of this market dissatisfaction, combined with this week’s aggressive short attack (more on that later), driven by lower expectations for Carrefour Italia and the lack of detail around the turnaround plan, has left the company trading at around 3x EV/EBITDA with a net cash position (ex-IFRS 16). But we are not here simply to say that the stock is cheap and that nothing has changed, because that would not be true. If there is one thing we have tried to stand for over the past six years, it is to remain objective and transparent.

Our goal today is to provide the most detailed post-results analysis of NewPrinces’ current situation that has been published so far. In a critical and objective manner, we review all the available information, make informed assumptions about Carrefour’s situation - including lease costs, required capex, realistic synergies and 2026 free cash flow - and analyse Princes UK in depth, as it remains the key listed manufacturing asset.

We have deliberately chosen to produce a thorough piece of work, asking the difficult questions and trying to provide the most reasonable answers, rather than rushing out a superficial note on Wednesday. We believe the result has been worth it.

Today we analyse in depth:

• FY25 results, with a detailed breakdown of the main drivers, Q4 negative FCF, the balance sheet,…

• An independent assessment of the current situation at Princes UK and Carrefour Italia

• The key elements of a potential Carrefour turnaround, including real estate, synergies, and operational levers

• Our 2026–2028 outlook, based on our own assumptions

• Our estimate of Carrefour’s free cash flow based on all currently available information

• Capital structure - both at Princes and at NewPrinces - and the group’s financial position

• Our independent valuation, both for Princes on a standalone basis and for NewPrinces, under the two scenarios we consider most likely

• Our thoughts on NewPrinces and what has changed since Tuesday

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Corporación América - Equity Research update following FY25 results and the impact of the Iran war

• Sky Harbour - Equity Research update following FY25 results and accelerating expectations

• Fortress Infrastructure - Company update following first results after last summer’s transformational M&A

• Golar LNG -Company update on the current situation and updated DCF model

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update - Important news about this soon

• Financial model Updates

This week we have moved our corporate website to Moramcapital.com, where we have launched the corporate notes section, in which we provide updates on companies in our universe in response to relevant corporate events, earnings results…

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

Five consecutive weeks of losses for US equities, though the pattern this week was more nuanced than the prior ones: Monday opened with genuine relief after Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, lifting equities and compressing oil sharply (WTI fell over 11% in a single session). By midweek the bounce had fully deflated. Geopolitical noise replaced signal, Gulf states publicly signaled involvement was deepening rather than receding, Friday brought another extension (this time 10 days) but the market reaction was muted. as we believe that the market has learned to discount deadline extensions that do not come with concrete de-escalation mechanics.

The most notable aspect of the week, however, was the divergence beneath the surface. The Magnificent 7 fell roughly 5%, dragged down by Meta — off more than 11% on a combination of layoffs and an addictive-platform court ruling — and Alphabet, which shed 8.5%. The Nasdaq has now entered technical correction territory, down more than 10% from its highs. Small caps, by contrast, closed the week in positive territory, with the value factor leading the advance.

Energy was again the best performing sector of the week, acting as a structural hedge against a prolonged conflict. Natural gas leads within the sector: QatarEnergy has now signalled it will extend its force majeure for the duration of the conflict, which means Ras Laffan - the single facility responsible for approximately 20% of global LNG exports - remains offline with no visibility on restart.

The geopolitical backdrop remains highly unstable. Trump’s April 6 pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure has not changed the core picture: Washington’s 15-point proposal was rejected by Tehran as one-sided, while US officials continue to frame the military campaign as weeks rather than months. Meanwhile, disruption around Hormuz persists and the conflict is broadening, including further missile activity from Yemen. The market is therefore still trying to price a war with no credible path to resolution soon

Macro

The key macro release of the week was Tuesday’s March S&P Global PMI, which reinforced the stagflationary narrative and pushed bonds higher. US Composite PMI fell to 51.4, the weakest reading since April 2025, capping the softest quarter since 4Q23. Manufacturing held up better at 52.4, helped by inventory building and a stabilisation in export demand, but Services dropped to 51.1, an 11-month low, with companies pointing to higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions, market volatility and war-related travel disruptions.

More importantly, private sector employment declined for the first time in over a year, while input costs rose sharply, leading to the fastest increase in selling prices since August 2022. Delivery times also deteriorated meaningfully, reflecting renewed shipping disruptions.

Taken together, the PMI data and the ongoing energy shock are creating an increasingly difficult backdrop for the Fed. The pass-through from Brent above $100 and TTF above €55 into both headline and core CPI is not immediate, but it is visible, predictable and still building.

The Fed is effectively stuck. Growth is softening and labour data is weakening, which would normally support cuts, but the energy-driven inflation shock argues the opposite. Cutting risks fuelling inflation, while hiking would worsen the slowdown.

The result is a longer pause. Markets have pushed rate cut expectations sharply out, with the first fully priced cut now in October 2027.

As a result, the 10-year Treasury ended the week near 4.43%. Notably, there has so far been something of a “Trump put” every time the 10-year reaches the 4.4% area, with positive market-facing headlines tending to appear at that point — a 5-day extension, then a 10-day extension, and so on. At the same time, expectations for US rate cuts in 2026 have effectively disappeared, while European and UK markets have shifted to pricing further hikes.

The Week ahead

The war remains the key macro variable. April 6 is the next hard deadline, as Trump’s pause on strikes against Iranian power infrastructure expires then, and any credible signal from the indirect talks - reportedly involving Pakistan and Turkey - is likely to matter more for markets than any economic release.

On the macro side, CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, JOLTS on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday will be the first real test of whether the energy shock is beginning to feed through into consumer behaviour.

Friday is Good Friday, so markets will be closed, but March non-farm payrolls will still be released. Any material surprise will therefore be absorbed on Monday’s open, potentially with greater force. After this week’s first decline in private sector employment in over a year.

As for earnings, the season is now largely over and only a handful of companies are still left to report. On our side, the main focus will be NewPrinces’ results this Monday, which we will be following closely and covering in depth.

Initial Equity Research -

Today, we are taking advantage of the earnings season and everything happening in the Middle East to thoroughly update the Equity Research on several companies we cover in our coverage universe.

• Corporación América – We update our thesis and valuation following FY25 results and the impact of the war in Iran

• Sky Harbour – We update our thesis and valuation following FY25 results and the acceleration in expectations

• Golar LNG – Various comments on the current situation and updated DCF model

• Fortress Infrastructure – We analyse the company’s current situation following its first results after the significant M&A completed last summer

• Edenred, Puig,... – Comments on this week’s news

Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to our website so they can be found more quickly.)

Corporación América - Updated Equity Research

Corporación América Airports (CAAP) is one of the world’s leading private airport operators. Founded in 1998 by the Eurnekian family - who remains the majority shareholder - it originated with the AA2000 concession to operate 33 Argentine airports, including Ezeiza International and Aeroparque Jorge Newbery, the country’s two main hubs. From there, CAAP expanded internationally into Armenia (2002), Uruguay (2003), Ecuador (2004), Brazil (2012), and Italy (2015), and listed on the NYSE in February 2018. Today it operates 52 airports across 6 countries, serving 86.7 million passengers in 2025 (the best year in company history).

The business model is built around long-term concession agreements with governments. Aeronautical revenues - landing fees, terminal use, passenger boarding charges - move directly with traffic volumes. Non-aeronautical revenues (cargo, duty-free, fuel, VIP lounges, parking, F&B, retail) are the higher-margin segment and exceeded aeronautical revenues for the first time in 2025, reaching 54.5% of total revenue ex-IFRIC12.

Argentina contributes ~55% of consolidated revenue and EBITDA; Armenia (~16%) is the second engine and the fastest-growing segment; Italy (Toscana Aeroporti: Florence and Pisa), Uruguay, Brazil, and Ecuador complete the portfolio (plus new concessions in Angola & Iraq)

Since we published our initial equity research on August 3, highlighting CAAP’s substantial upside, undemanding valuation and broad set of catalysts, the stock rose around 60% over the following five months. That rerating was driven by strong operational execution, new concession wins and a sharp decline in Argentine country risk after the elections. Since February, however, rising tensions around the Iran conflict have reversed part of that move, with CAAP falling more than 20% in recent weeks amid broader pressure on the airport sector and renewed concern around its exposure to traffic flows in the region.

With the company having just reported its strongest full-year results to date, but with the share price pressured by the Iran conflict, today we want to assess whether the current dislocation is creating an attractive opportunity in a business with substantial growth ahead, or whether key elements of the thesis have changed enough to justify staying on the sidelines. To answer that, we look at:

• A detailed review of Q4 and FY2025 results across all six operating countries — including what the headline numbers reveal about the underlying evolution of the business

• An assessment of how the Iran-Qatar conflict is affecting CAAP, from the direct implications for the Baghdad concession to the indirect traffic impact on Armenia and the rest of the portfolio

• A full review of CAAP’s concession pipeline — including Angola, Iraq, Armenia and the strategic developments that have extended the group’s long-term visibility

• An updated independent valuation, including a multi-scenario EV/EBITDA sensitivity table, revised FY2026-27 estimates and a discussion of the catalysts

• Our independent view on whether the current setup represents a genuine opportunity, and the key variables we are watching most closely

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• LNG Industry - Analysis of the equilibrium situation following the attacks on Qatar, the different scenarios going forward, and the implications on the forward curve

• New Fortress Energy - Full restructuring analysis, including capital structure, scenarios for the next 3 years, valuation and our independent view.

• Venture Global - Valuation Update & Our view on the opportunity

• Next Decade - Valuation Update & Our view on the opportunity

• Golar LNG - Valuation update and our view on the current situation (10x on the equity since our initial position almost six years ago).

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

Fourth consecutive week of declines across the major indices, with the Iran war remaining the dominant macro variable and the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision offering no relief. The sell-off continues to be materially more severe in Europe than in the United States, as the impact of higher energy costs is far more pronounced there. Indices are now approaching critical support levels.

The main U.S. indices have already reached key support levels, and the coming week will be decisive in determining whether the correction turns into a significant decline. For now, what is clear is that the energy sector is holding up as a safe haven, with companies set to substantially clean up their balance sheets thanks to the windfall earnings they generate each week that oil (and gas) remain at these price levels

Worth highlighting the very sharp decline in gold this week, which we honestly interpret as a liquidity event. Bitcoin, in our view, is holding up much better so far because of its real utility in this type of conflict when it comes to moving capital across borders. As a relevant point, keep in mind Iran’s importance in Bitcoin mining, accounting for roughly 4% of global mining. Allowing ourselves some speculation, and knowing that a large part of that mining is in the hands of the regime, this could perhaps explain part of the previous weakness as a financing need, rather than it being driven solely by the sell-off in the software sector.

Iran, Qatar & Strait of Hormuz

The context for everything this week is the same as last: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually halted since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February - roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a significant share of global LNG, effectively stranded.

This week, the conflict moved into new and more dangerous territory. Israeli strikes hit Iran’s South Pars gas field - a critical section of the world’s largest natural gas deposit - and Iran responded by bombarding Ras Laffan in Qatar, the LNG hub that supplies approximately 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Qatar has confirmed the damage will take three to five years to repair. That is not a supply chain disruption - it is a structural reshaping of the global LNG market for the better part of a decade. The beneficiaries are obvious and significant: Golar LNG, Venture Global, NextDecade, Cheniere, and the broader LNG infrastructure complex are looking at a sustained demand and pricing environment that was unimaginable a few months ago.

Commodity prices reflect the severity: Brent closes the week above $112, WTI at $98, and TTF - European natural gas - approaching €60/MWh. The Strait itself remains largely closed despite selective passage for a handful of friendly-flagged vessels. Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum - expiring late Monday - demanding the Strait reopen or face further escalation targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.

We are approaching a point of no return in global energy markets. We analyse the full implications for the LNG markets (and other sectors and asset classes later)

FED meeting

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the broader message from Powell was still somewhat hawkish. He was careful to stress that the SEP is not a commitment and should not be treated as a fixed roadmap, while reiterating that the current policy stance remains appropriate. The key takeaway is that the Fed still lacks enough confidence to begin easing meaningfully, particularly with inflation progress remaining uneven and new energy-related risks emerging.

• Inflation: Powell acknowledged that inflation is still moving in the right direction, but more slowly than hoped. He said a hike was discussed as a possible next step and made clear that, without further progress on inflation, rate cuts will not come. Even though the median projections did not change, he pointed out that views inside the committee shifted toward fewer cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer message.

  

• Middle East: On the conflict in the Middle East, Powell avoided drawing strong macro conclusions and said it is still too early to know the scale or duration of the impact. That said, he admitted that the recent rise in energy prices is already pushing up short-term inflation expectations and is likely to lift headline inflation in the near term, even if the Fed still prefers to frame the shock as isolated rather than structural.

• Labour market: Powell’s tone on employment was more balanced than alarmed. He said the unemployment rate has changed little since last summer and argued that the labor market is not clearly a current source of inflation pressure. Still, he also noted that a meaningful number of committee members are becoming concerned about very weak job creation, suggesting labor softness is rising on the Fed’s radar even if inflation remains the primary focus.

The Week Ahead

The macro calendar is light - Monday brings January construction spending; Tuesday, earnings from GameStop and KB Home; Wednesday, February durable goods orders alongside Cintas, Paychex, and Chewy. Oil and Hormuz headlines retain primary market influence. The key binary for next week is simple: any credible de-escalation signal would likely generate a sharp reversal across the energy complex and a meaningful relief rally in equities and gold.

With 99% of the S&P 500 having already reported Q4 - roughly 72.5% beating EPS estimates, aggregate earnings growth running at ~14.1% YoY the earnings season is effectively closed. The remaining names worth watching:

• Carnival — the most market-relevant report of the week. Focus will be on booking trends, onboard spending, and any commentary on demand elasticity as higher energy costs and macro uncertainty begin to test discretionary travel demand. Guidance will matter more than the quarter itself.

• FedEx — one of the cleaner real-time reads on global trade volumes and pricing discipline. Commentary on international freight flows, margins, and fuel cost pass-through will be particularly relevant as investors assess whether the energy shock is filtering into the real economy.

• Lululemon / Darden — a useful combined read on the health of the US consumer at the premium end. Lululemon frames demand for premium apparel; Darden checks restaurant traffic and consumer willingness to keep spending on experiences.

• Accenture / DocuSign — Accenture is the better macro signal here, particularly for corporate IT budgets and consulting demand. The key question: are large clients still willing to invest in a more uncertain backdrop?

Equity Research - LNG Industry

This week has been one of the most important in decades for the LNG industry - a sector in which we specialise and across which we cover most of the relevant names. For that reason, we have split this publication into two parts:

• A deep dive into the New Fortress Energy restructuring announced this week, where we review in detail the new capital structure, with particular focus on the preferred shares, the assets that remain in the listed company, the contracts attached to them, and what each of those assets is worth. We also present our independent analysis of NFE under different asset-sale scenarios and give our own view on the company.

  

• A full review of the state of the industry after the attack on Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export hub, which knocked out 12.7 MTPA and confirmed that this production will not be fully restored for at least three to five years.

  We examine the impact, how we think this will affect the futures curve and the TTF-HH spread under different scenarios, and how that translates into the valuation of the various companies:

  • Venture Global

  • NextDecade

  • Golar LNG

  • Excelerate Energy

Note: We have covered all these companies extensively over the years. Below are links to our most recent analyses (all updated in the last few months).

New Fortress Energy - Restructuring Deep Dive

On Tuesday, March 17, New Fortress Energy formally launched its balance sheet restructuring, doing so through a UK court process rather than through a traditional US Chapter 11 filing. We do not think this came as a surprise to anyone. In fact, after covering the company since 2019, we had already become highly skeptical by August 2024, following the FLNG debacle, and published several reports throughout 4Q24 and all of 2025 arguing that it was completely unviable for the company to repair its extremely stretched debt burden, whether organically or through asset sales.

The transaction itself is structured as a UK Restructuring Plan ( $5.7Bn, one of the largest transactions of its type ever completed under this framework - a court-sanctioned process under English law that allows a company to restructure its debt with creditor support, continue operating without interruption, and bind dissenting minorities through a cross-class cram-down mechanism. NFE has signed a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with more than 50% of its creditors by value, which contains all material terms. The RSA is consensual, meaning the company avoids the adversarial dynamics and prolonged timeline of a US Chapter 11 filing.

The first step of the transaction is to split the company in two. NFE’s Brazilian operations - terminals, power plants and the entire Barcarena and Santa Catarina platform - will be spun off as a private entity called BrazilCo, reverting to its original name Hygo. It will be owned by a consortium of institutional investors and managed by the existing Brazil leadership team. Existing NFE shareholders receive zero equity in BrazilCo.

The remainder of the business - Puerto Rico, Mexico, Nicaragua, Fast LNG 1, and a portfolio of ten GE TM2500 turbines - will continue as a publicly listed entity under the ticker NFE. This is what the company calls “New NFE”. The corporate debt of “New NFE” will be cut from approximately $5.7 billion to approximately $527.5 million. In exchange, creditors will receive a combination of new debt, $2.5Bn preferred equity, and 65% of the common equity. Existing shareholders retain 35% of “New NFE”, subject to further dilution if the preferred equity is not repaid within three years. The transaction completion targeted for mid-2026.

Today we take a deep look at:

• We break down NFE’s new capital structure and go in detail with Corporate Debt, FLNG2 Asset debt and new preferred shares

• Each of the remaining assets individually, estimating the standalone EBITDA each one can generate, what it could be worth in a realistic sale process, and where we think the line sits between economic reality and management narrative.

• The full range of operating and monetisation scenarios, looking at the resulting valuation outcomes, what we believe is most likely over the next three years, and whether this is a genuine opportunity or just another value trap.

• Quite honestly, after seven years of covering the company and having been early on each step of what has unfolded over the past 20 months, we believe this analysis will be useful for anyone interested in the name.

Read more

On Tuesday, March 17, New Fortress Energy formally launched its balance sheet restructuring, doing so through a UK court process rather than through a traditional US Chapter 11 filing. We do not think this came as a surprise to anyone. In fact, after covering the company since 2019, we had already become highly skeptical by August 2024, following the FLNG debacle, and published several reports throughout 4Q24 and all of 2025 arguing that it was completely unviable for the company to repair its extremely stretched debt burden, whether organically or through asset sales.

The transaction itself is structured as a UK Restructuring Plan ( $5.7Bn, one of the largest transactions of its type ever completed under this framework - a court-sanctioned process under English law that allows a company to restructure its debt with creditor support, continue operating without interruption, and bind dissenting minorities through a cross-class cram-down mechanism. NFE has signed a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with more than 50% of its creditors by value, which contains all material terms. The RSA is consensual, meaning the company avoids the adversarial dynamics and prolonged timeline of a US Chapter 11 filing.

The first step of the transaction is to split the company in two. NFE’s Brazilian operations - terminals, power plants and the entire Barcarena and Santa Catarina platform - will be spun off as a private entity called BrazilCo, reverting to its original name Hygo. It will be owned by a consortium of institutional investors and managed by the existing Brazil leadership team. Existing NFE shareholders receive zero equity in BrazilCo.

The remainder of the business - Puerto Rico, Mexico, Nicaragua, Fast LNG 1, and a portfolio of ten GE TM2500 turbines - will continue as a publicly listed entity under the ticker NFE. This is what the company calls “New NFE”. The corporate debt of “New NFE” will be cut from approximately $5.7 billion to approximately $527.5 million. In exchange, creditors will receive a combination of new debt, $2.5Bn preferred equity, and 65% of the common equity. Existing shareholders retain 35% of “New NFE”, subject to further dilution if the preferred equity is not repaid within three years. The transaction completion targeted for mid-2026.

Today we take a deep look at:

• We break down NFE’s new capital structure and go in detail with Corporate Debt, FLNG2 Asset debt and new preferred shares

• Each of the remaining assets individually, estimating the standalone EBITDA each one can generate, what it could be worth in a realistic sale process, and where we think the line sits between economic reality and management narrative.

• The full range of operating and monetisation scenarios, looking at the resulting valuation outcomes, what we believe is most likely over the next three years, and whether this is a genuine opportunity or just another value trap.

• Quite honestly, after seven years of covering the company and having been early on each step of what has unfolded over the past 20 months, we believe this analysis will be useful for anyone interested in the name.

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• NewPrinces - Company update on the current situation and FY25 results outlook

• Kosmos Energy - Company Update following Equity Rising

• IDT Corporation - Company Update following 1H26 Results

• Solaria -Company Update following Iran situation & Results

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

A week of broad losses, mainly driven by the rise in oil prices as the war continues to drag on, with each passing day increasing expectations that its collateral effects will be more persistent and far-reaching. U.S. indices closed down roughly 2%, with the Russell 2000 taking the hardest hit under the dual pressure of higher energy costs and rising interest rates. At the sector level, the week’s logic was straightforward: defense and energy led the market, while mega-cap technology names suffered from the repricing of yields on their valuations. Semiconductors held up better, supported by positive results from Oracle and TSMC.

In Europe and Asia, the correction was more pronounced due to their greater energy dependence on developments in the Middle East. The VIX is hovering around 25, a level that reflects genuine uncertainty; however, for it to signal outright panic it would likely need to move above 30 ( Fear & Greed index is currently in extreme fear, but still at 20).

The week’s defining event was the escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, now entering its second week with a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. From the $70 per barrel level prior to the initial attack, Brent closed last week around $93 before surging above $100 at Monday’s open, a level it has broadly held through the weekend. The central threat remains the Strait of Hormuz: the IRGC declared it will not allow “a single liter of oil” through the Strait, warning that any vessel linked to the United States, Israel, or their allies “will be considered a legitimate target.” Combined production from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE has fallen by close to 10 million barrels per day, and Qatar declared force majeure on its LNG exports following strikes on Ras Laffan. The IEA responded with the largest strategic reserve release in its history (400 million barrels) - significant in scale, but likely insufficient if the conflict extends beyond initial plans.

What has caught markets off guard is the resilience of the Iranian regime. Despite losing the conventional war against the US and Israel, Tehran has proven more durable than expected, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is no bluff: it is Iran’s only real deterrent, the one card it can play to prevent further strikes down the road. As long as that logic holds, Iran’s incentive to back down remains limited - and with it, the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

February CPI, released on Wednesday, came in broadly in line with expectations at +2.4% YoY, with shelter as the main contributor to the upside and apparel posting the largest monthly increase since 2018 (+1.3%). Under normal circumstances, an in-line print would have been well received. However, the market largely ignored it, as February data does not yet capture the impact of oil moving from $70 to $100 in just two weeks, with projections now pointing to CPI potentially reaching the 4–4.5% range in 2Q26.

The Fed meets on March 18, and markets are assigning virtually a 100% probability to a pause. The backdrop is becoming delicate: Treasury yields rose between 14 and 18 basis points across the curve this week, with the 10-year reaching 4.24% and the 30-year 4.87%. Bonds are not behaving as a safe haven — they are pricing persistent inflation.

Adding to the uncertainty is the question of Powell’s succession, with his term expiring in May and markets beginning to price a “transition premium” into long-dated yields. Wednesday’s press conference will likely be the most important read of the month

Next week: a packed macro calendar

Beyond the FOMC, next weekbrings several relevant catalysts. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases February retail sales — the first read on consumer spending after the energy shock and an important gauge of whether higher gasoline prices are starting to weigh on the American consumer. On Wednesday, alongside the Fed decision, February housing starts will also be published. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, rounding out the activity picture.

In Europe, the ECB does not meet until April, but several Governing Council members are scheduled to speak, with markets looking for clues on whether the energy shock could alter the expected rate-cut path. Finally, Friday marks the quarterly triple witching in the U.S. - the simultaneous expiration of equity and index derivatives - which typically adds volatility into the close.

Earnings Season

With most of the earnings season already behind us, the flow of results slows down considerably this week. However, a few relevant companies reporting in the coming days should still provide useful data across semiconductors, global trade and the health of the US consumer.

• AI memory and the semiconductor cycle (Micron) – Micron will likely be the most closely watched report of the week. The company sits at the center of the AI infrastructure build-out through its exposure to data-center DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Focus on pricing trends, supply constraints and visibility on FY2026 demand as hyperscaler capex remains very strong.

• Global trade and logistics (FedEx) – FedEx remains one of the most reliable real-time indicators of global economic activity. Focus on package volumes, pricing discipline and the progress of the company’s efficiency initiatives. Guidance will also provide a useful read on e-commerce demand and international shipping trends (disrupted these days due to Hormuz blockade)

• Consumer spending check (Lululemon, Darden Restaurants) – These two names should offer another snapshot of discretionary spending trends in the US. Lululemon provides a read on premium apparel demand and international growth, while Darden helps gauge restaurant traffic and pricing power across casual dining.

• Enterprise tech spending (Accenture, DocuSign) – Accenture’s consulting pipeline is often seen as a leading indicator of enterprise IT spending, while DocuSign continues to reposition itself around agreement-management solutions. Commentary on deal activity and client budgets will be particularly relevant in the current macro backdrop.

Today, as we did last week, we are taking advantage of the earnings season and everything happening in the Middle East to thoroughly update the Equity Research on four companies we cover in our coverage universe.

• Kosmos Energy – We update our thesis and valuation following the equity raise the company carried out this week.

• NewPrinces – After the declines experienced in recent days and with results just two weeks away, we take a detailed look at the company’s current situation.

• IDT Corporation – We provide an update following the results published this week.

• Solaria – We update our research following the FY25 results and the latest developments in its construction pipeline.

Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to the website so they can be found more quickly.)

Updated Equity Research - NewPrinces

NewPrinces - formerly Newlat Food - is one of the three companies to which we have dedicated the most time and analysis over the past few years. We first presented our thesis and entered the position in early 2023, at €4.65 per share, when the company was still a regional Italian food operator with revenues below €800M and a market cap under €200M. Since then, through a disciplined and relentless programme of inorganic growth, it has become a European agri-food giant with revenues exceeding €7bn and over €400M of EBITDA. Its market cap has multiplied by more than four, and the Mastrolia family has delivered on everything they promised when we first analysed it.

The current NewPrinces is composed of four main pillars:

The current NewPrinces is composed of four main pillars:

• Princes Group (LSE: PRN, 82.7% owned). The industrial backbone. £2.1bn of revenues across ambient foods, canned goods, fish, oils, and drinks in the UK and Europe. Listed in London in November 2025, with £400M of dry powder earmarked for further acquisitions. Margin recovery well underway: EBITDA margin expanded from 6.2% to 8.1% through 9M25 on procurement synergies and the exit from low-margin contracts.

• Carrefour Italia / GS (100% owned). 1,000+ stores across Italy, acquired in December 2025 following EC approval. Reported losses under Carrefour France (–€67M ROI, –€180M FCF) mask a standalone EBITDA of ~€115M once the €100M in Paris intercompany fees are removed. The elimination of overheads, the real estate and lease portfolio restructuring, the rollout of NewPrinces’ own brands across 1,000 points of sale, and the €445M GS relaunch plan represent a compelling set of levers that management is now in a position to pull for the first time.

• Plasmon + Diageo Operations Italy. Two high-margin, brand-led businesses leased internally to Princes. Plasmon (€170M revenue, 11.7% EBITDA margin) — Italy’s leading baby food brand. Diageo Italy (€234M revenue, ~9% margin) — spirits and RTD vertical, with B2B demand already exceeding expectations.

• Centrale del Latte d’Italia (70% owned). Italian dairy brands — Mukki, CDL Torino, Tigullio, Polenghi — now distributed across 1,000+ GS stores from day one. The simplest and most direct commercial synergy in the perimeter.

The journey has not been without turbulence. The stock has suffered corrections of -15% / -20% on several occasions. The most significant is the current one: from a high of €26.16 in August 2025, the stock has fallen more than 30% to the €18.52 it closed this Friday The trigger was the Princes IPO on the London Stock Exchange in November 2025 - the single biggest communication misstep in NewPrinces’ history - which priced well below expectations and sparked a sell-off that has since been compounded by four months of M&A silence and, most recently, the macro shock of the Iran war.

Each time in the past, these corrections have been driven by market confusion about the complexity of the story - not by any fundamental deterioration. The question today is whether this pattern will repeat - or whether something has structurally changed. Today, we analyse the situation of one of the companies we best know and provide our independent view:

• Review the main drivers that brought the share price to its current level

• Share our analysis of the FY25 results we expect.

• Examine the evolution of the Carrefour integration process and its implications

• Provide an updated valuation.

• Present our opinion on the company’s current situation.

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Excelerate Energy - Company Update following Iran situation & Results

• Kosmos Energy - Company Update following Iran situation & Results

• The Italian Sea Group - Company Update following last week events

• Sky Harbour - Company Update on Obligated Group Results

• Campari - Company Update following FY25 results

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

Historic week in the markets (especially regarding energy) after last weekend the United States and Israel started a war with Iran, and Iran responded by bombing several nearby countries, including Qatar (which, together with the US, is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas).

As was to be expected after this event (and given that it did not turn out to be a quick intervention like the one in Venezuela a few weeks ago), the situation escalated throughout the week. The main indices around the world closed lower. Europe was hit much harder than the United States due to the immediate impact on electricity prices (with European natural gas prices skyrocketing from the very first day).

In fact, markets held up very well until Friday, when it was revealed that nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February, well below expectations for a gain of around 60,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. In addition, there were huge downward revisions to the numbers from previous months (which has been the usual pattern from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in recent years).

The weaker report could complicate decision-making for the Federal Reserve, as policymakers balance signs of labor market cooling against potential inflation pressures from rising energy prices amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

With the massive increase in oil prices already underway (although, importantly, what has really surged is the spot price; the forward curves remain with WTI below $70 as of Friday’s close), Bloomberg estimates that the impact on inflation is going to be very significant.

The start of the war in Iran - and the growing expectations that this will not be a lightning-fast conflict as initially assumed — are beginning to have a noticeably different impact across asset classes.

This chart illustrates quite well the uneven impact seen this week: small caps vs. the Magnificent 7, and internationally, developed market equities vs. emerging market equities.

Looking ahead, the week will be dominated by developments in the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets. Any escalation or disruption to regional supply routes could trigger renewed volatility in crude prices and, by extension, broader risk assets. Beyond geopolitics, the macro calendar is relatively dense: Existing Home Sales (Tuesday) will provide a read on the housing market, while CPI inflation data (Wednesday) will be closely watched for signs that disinflation is continuing. The week concludes with a heavy macro slate on Friday, including Q4 GDP, PCE inflation and JOLTS job openings, which together will help shape expectations around the Fed’s policy path.

Earning Season

With the vast majority of the S&P 500 having already reported, the earnings season is now entering its final stretch and naturally losing some market attention. The bulk of the key information has already been digested, and investors are gradually shifting their focus back to macro developments, positioning and sector rotation. Still, a few relevant companies reporting this week provide useful signals across software, China tech and the resilience of the US consumer.

• AI software monetization (Oracle, Adobe) – Two of the most relevant software names still to report this quarter. Oracle will be closely watched for signals on hyperscaler demand and AI infrastructure spending through OCI and database workloads tied to generative AI. Adobe, meanwhile, will help gauge whether AI features are translating into pricing power and sustained growth in creative software.

• China tech & EV demand (NIO, Li Auto) – Chinese EV makers will offer another read on the health of domestic demand and the intensity of pricing competition in the world’s largest EV market. Delivery trends and margin trajectory will help investors assess whether the sector is stabilizing after a year marked by aggressive price competition and a more cautious consumer environment.

• US consumer resilience check (Dick’s Sporting Goods, Ulta Beauty) – Although most major retailers have already reported, these names still provide a useful snapshot of discretionary spending trends. Investors will look for confirmation that the US consumer remains resilient, particularly in lifestyle and beauty categories that have held up better than broader discretionary spending.

Equity Research Updates

Today, instead of doing a deep analysis of a single company and updating the rest of our coverage universe in the Portfolio Management section (together with the portfolio moves during the week), we have decided to provide a detailed update on five companies that have recently experienced relevant developments and are currently in particularly interesting situations.

• Excelerate Energy and Kosmos Energy have reported earnings and are being affected - in very different ways - by the Iran conflict.

• Sky Harbour has released results for its Obligated Group (a portion of its campuses), and we take the opportunity to analyze them and discuss their implications for the company.

• The Italian Sea Group has continued its annus horribilis with the launch of an internal audit, as it appears that several senior managers may have been diverting company funds. We analyze the company’s current situation and its potential survival paths.

• Finally, Campari has reported excellent results, and we use the occasion to revisit the company.

Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to the website so they can be found more quickly.)

Updated Equity Research - Excelerate Energy

Excelerate Energy is a U.S.-listed LNG infrastructure company (NYSE: EE) focused on the downstream segment of the natural gas supply chain - primarily the regasification of liquefied natural gas and, since the acquisition of New Fortress Energy’s Jamaica operations in May 2025, the full LNG-to-power value chain. In simple terms: Excelerate builds and operates the infrastructure that receives LNG tankers, converts the liquefied gas back into its gaseous form, and delivers it to the power plants, industrial customers, and city gas networks that depend on it. It is the last mile of the LNG supply chain, and it is increasingly proving to be the most critical part.

The company’s core asset is the Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) — a purpose-built or converted ship that can be anchored offshore and connected to a country’s gas grid without requiring the years of permitting and billions of capital needed for a land-based import terminal. This makes FSRUs uniquely suited to emerging markets and fast-growing economies that need gas infrastructure now, not in ten years. Excelerate owns and operates 10 FSRUs plus a newbuild (Hull 3407, operational 3Q26) and a second planned through conversion. That fleet represents roughly 20% of the global FSRU fleet and 27% of global capacity — making it the dominant operator in the sector. All units operate under long-term take-or-pay contracts with sovereign-backed or investment-grade counterparties.

Excelerate’s revenues split into two streams:

• Terminal Services (high-margin lease income from the FSRUs and onshore terminals, the backbone of EBITDA)

• LNG, Gas & Power (back-to-back gas sales at a fixed margin and, since Jamaica acquisition, LNG to power terminals, last mile delivery, bunkering…

The company does not take commodity price risk on gas sales - every purchase is matched with a simultaneous sale under contracted terms. Around 90% of terminal lease revenues are indexed to CPI, making cash flows predictable over a multi-year horizon regardless of spot LNG prices.

Excelerate Energy recently reported record results for 2025, driven by the Jamaica acquisition and the continued optimization of its global asset portfolio. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA reached $449M (+29% YoY), at the high end of guidance. However, the significant step-up begins in 2026 with the start of production of Hull 3407. Guidance EBITDA is $530M (and increasing in 2027 and 2028). The business is on a clear growth trajectory over the next three years: a new FSRU coming online in Iraq (Q3 2026), the Express recontracting at meaningfully higher rates (2027), and a second FSRU conversion targeting 2028.

Today we review in detail (as we do for each of the five companies discussed):

• Current operational and financial situation

• Our EBITDA estimates by asset for the coming years

• Our independent valuation of the company

• Our view on the stock (Long / Short / Neutral)

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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Golar LNG - Updated Equity Research

• Excelerate Energy - Results Update

• Kosmos Energy - Update

• Pluxee - Update

• HBX Group - Update

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

A highly volatile week in the markets, where declines in the main U.S. indices - with both the Mag 7 and small caps falling - contrasted with gains in Europe and Asia. The VIX, which briefly spiked above 21 again, closed the week below 20, while gold continues to act as a safe haven amid uncertainty and is now up more than 21% year to date. Despite all this, the current earnings season is delivering spectacular results.

The week started on a very volatile note following the publication of a report (Citrini) on the impact of AI and AI-driven disruption risks across multiple industries and the broader economy. The report essentially argues that AI will boost productivity while quietly hollowing out white-collar incomes and consumer demand — painting a rather catastrophic scenario for equity markets by 2028. This triggered sell-offs across the major indices. In short, despite exponential productivity gains, the thesis is that mass layoffs would ultimately undermine the economy.

However, on Tuesday and Wednesday several counterarguments emerged from Citadel and others, pointing out flaws in the analysis and highlighting potential economic interests behind the report (including short positioning). Markets subsequently recovered.

So far, AI’s impact has been most visible in SaaS companies - which is logical, as AI significantly reduces the moat of many software businesses. That said, we do not believe (at this stage) that OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will move to operate across every layer of each industry’s value chain, as the market seems to be pricing in. To use the travel industry as an example: an agentic process may well allow users to book a hotel directly (potentially pressuring the margins of players like Booking), but it is far less clear that AI players will start managing inventory (HBX Group) or building and maintaining the complex infrastructure required (Amadeus).

On Thursday, declines resumed following NVIDIA’s earnings. Despite delivering spectacular results and crushing analysts’ expectations, the stock still closed the session sharply lower, dragging the broader indices with it. Even though it has recently stalled, NVIDIA alone represents roughly 8% of the S&P 500, making its post-earnings reaction highly influential on overall market performance.

On Friday, markets sold off sharply amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States and the growing likelihood of an imminent strike. As we mentioned in previous weeks, the U.S. modus operandi often points to weekend action, and the troop deployments in recent days made this the most probable scenario.

Following Friday’s rebound, as of Sunday evening oil is up nearly 8%, gold another 2%, while declines in the main indices remain relatively contained (around -0.5%). We believe this will be a relatively short conflict, with a short-term impact primarily on oil prices (a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would significantly escalate the situation) and potentially on natural gas, given Qatar, Bahrain and Egypt’s production relevance - with a likely notable effect on European gas prices.

We expand further on this in the Portfolio Management section, as our positioning via calls into this potential event was fairly aggressive.

Earnings Season

Key earnings themes this week

• AI semis & next-gen compute (Broadcom, Marvell, Ciena, Rigetti) - After NVIDIA last week, the focus now shifts to connectivity, custom silicon and networking leverage to AI infrastructure. Broadcom and Marvell are critical to assess AI ASIC demand, hyperscaler exposure and networking intensity per rack. Ciena gives us the optical layer angle (AI traffic scaling), while Rigetti reflects speculative appetite within quantum/high-performance compute. Order backlog, AI revenue mix and 2026 visibility matter more than the print.

• US consumer & retail resilience (Target, Best Buy, Costco, Abercrombie) - A broad read across income brackets. Costco reflect staple resilience and traffic trends; Target and Best Buy test discretionary electronics demand. Abercrombie give us off-price vs fashion exposure. Inventory discipline, gross margin recovery and forward comp guidance will determine whether the US consumer remains stable or starts to show fatigue.

• China & EM consumption signals (JD.com, Sea Ltd.) – JD provides a read on Chinese consumption and competitive intensity in e-commerce, while Sea offers visibility into Southeast Asia digital demand and fintech trends. We care more about margin stability and forward investment pace than headline growth.

Golar LNG - Updated Equity Research

Golar LNG is, without question, the company for which MORAM Capital is best known, and the one on which we have spent more hours than any other since our first acquisition on May 15th, 2020. We began analyzing the company following a force majeure event that nearly derailed it. Over the years, we have witnessed its spectacular transformation from a diversified entity with assets across multiple parts of the natural gas value chain into a pure-play FLNG company and the undisputed global benchmark in its niche. During this journey, we have seen the divestment of the shipping segment (now CoolCo), the sale of the downstream division to New Fortress Energy, the extraordinary spike in natural gas prices in 2022, Perenco acquiring a significant stake, and the signing of the Argentina contracts, among many other milestones.

We have modeled every scenario, read every filing, made the right calls, and rebuilt the spreadsheet more times than we can count. Fortunately, our initial investment was made at $5.15 per share. Over time, Golar’s weight in the portfolio increased, at certain points representing as much as 45% of our total exposure. Through disciplined entries and exits, as well as derivative positioning, we have generated nearly a 12x return on our original investment over these six years - an absolute game changer in the history of MORAM Capital.

Today, we want to update our investment thesis on Golar, as we believe the company is entering a critically important phase in its history. Despite having all three of its core assets tied to 20-year contracts, 2026 and 2027 are expected to be negative free cash flow years. Until the Argentina FLNG contracts (Hilli and Mark II, commencing in 4Q27 and 4Q28 respectively) become effective, the company will only have Golar Gimi operational (its least attractive contract) and Hilli until July 2026. Meanwhile, Golar must fund approximately $350 million in capex to adapt Hilli to its new contract and complete the construction of Mark II.

In other words, the market remains far from fully valuing the ~$800 million of EBITDA potential from 2029 onwards and is showing limited patience regarding the announcement of a fourth FLNG unit - an announcement that has taken considerably longer than initially expected.

At the same time, following an impressive refinancing effort over the past months, management has announced a strategic review aimed at unlocking near-term shareholder value. However, they have also decided not to proceed with ordering long-lead items (approximately $400 million in capex) for FLNG #4 in order to shorten delivery timelines, prioritizing cash preservation over the next two years. This decision comes at a time when the cost of such items - particularly gas turbines - is increasing due to rising demand from AI-driven data center construction. The market has received this shift as a cold shower, as it contrasts sharply with the much more aggressive tone management conveyed just a few months ago.

If this were happening at another company, we would likely conclude that management miscalculated and that liquidity will be tight over the next two years (let alone buybacks). However, with Golar LNG, we believe - and we have asked extensively - that something more structural has changed. Understanding the broader strategic picture is essential before drawing conclusions or taking further action.

Today, we provide a comprehensive review of the company and its current situation, outlining the two potential scenarios and time horizons for how the story may unfold in the coming months. We believe this analysis will be very valuable for anyone with an interest in Golar.

Today we are sharing:

• A detailed analysis of the three assets (Gimi, Hilli, and Mark II) and their respective contracts, including simulations based on FOB pricing, TTF bridge assumptions, EUR/USD sensitivity, …

• Potential FLNG growth opportunities, compiling all publicly available information on potential contracts and negotiations across Africa, the Middle East, and South America.

• A complete analysis of the debt structure (annual amortization profile, interest rate hedging, SOFR exposure, etc.) and the capital allocation framework.

• An ultra-detailed DCF valuation model including full contract-level data, commodity price assumptions, and multiple scenarios (downloadable spreadsheet).

• Our independent view on how the Golar story is likely to evolve in the coming months - and the strategy we have in place to maximize returns.

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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Sky Harbour - Initial Equity Research

• Puig Group - Update

• Kosmos Energy - Update

• The Italian Sea Group & Sanlorenzo - Update

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

It was a very positive week for most indices despite disappointing macro data, ongoing political uncertainty, and a historic trade policy ruling. This week, large-cap companies regained some ground relative to small caps, although the performance gap between the two remains significant over these first eight weeks of the year. From a sector perspective, Energy continues to stand out as the strongest performer year-to-date, supported by the sharp move in oil prices, which advanced more than 5% this week, with Brent crude closing the week close to $72 per barrel.

Without a doubt, the defining event of the week was the Supreme Court striking down the IEEPA tariffs on Friday, only for President Trump to respond within hours with a new 15% global levy. In a 6–3 ruling, the Court determined that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, effectively removing a central pillar of Trump’s trade framework. However, the administration quickly pivoted, introducing a temporary global initially set at 10% and raised to 15% within hours. While this reduces the scope of the original measures, Section 232 tariffs on key industries such as steel, aluminium, autos and semiconductors remain intact, leaving the overall tariff burden still meaningful. In short, although the legal mechanism has changed, trade friction remains firmly embedded in policy, and markets appear to view this as a restructuring of tariffs rather than a true de-escalation.

Earlier in the week, markets were already grappling with disappointing signals from the U.S. economy, as the advance Q4 GDP estimate showed growth slowing to +1.4% annualised — less than half the +3.0% consensus and a sharp deceleration from +4.4% in Q3. Final Sales rose just +1.2%, pointing to softer underlying demand, while inflation remained stubbornly elevated, with the GDP Deflator at +3.7% versus +2.9% expected and Core PCE at +2.7%. The combination of moderating growth and sticky inflation further narrows the Federal Reserve’s room to manoeuvre and complicates the outlook for monetary policy.

The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI also came in weaker than expected, with activity falling to a 10-month low. Survey respondents pointed to softer demand, persistent price pressures, and adverse weather conditions as key headwinds. The only encouraging element was a rebound in business expectations, which rose to a 13-month high, suggesting that part of the current slowdown could prove temporary. Markets will be paying close attention to upcoming readings to determine whether this softness marks the start of a broader slowdown or merely a short-term dip.

This coming week the most important releases on the macro calendar will be U.S. consumer confidence, initial jobless claims, and January PPM data. Together, these indicators should provide a clearer read on the resilience of the U.S. consumer, the state of the labor market, and whether inflationary pressures are easing or reaccelerating at the start of the year.

Earning Season

Key earnings themes this week

• AI infrastructure & hyperscaler capex (NVIDIA, Snowflake, Dell) – This is the most important block of the week. Beyond NVIDIA’s numbers, the market will focus on data center demand sustainability, backlog visibility and commentary around AI server orders. Dell give us the enterprise hardware angle, while Snowflake help gauge how much of the AI enthusiasm is translating into real workloads and storage demand.

• Enterprise software & digital ad demand (Salesforce, The Trade Desk, Synopsys) – These companies help assess whether corporate IT budgets and digital advertising remain resilient. We care more about forward guidance, margin expansion and bookings than past-quarter revenue. If guidance stabilises or improves, it supports the idea that enterprise spending is bottoming.

• Consumer discretionary resilience (TJX, CAVA, Duolingo, HP, Mercado Libre) – This block provides insight into middle-income demand and discretionary appetite. Off-price retail (TJX) tests value-seeking behaviour, CAVA reflects premium fast-casual momentum, while Mercado Libre gives us a read on LatAm consumption and fintech activity. Traffic trends and unit growth matter more than price.

• Energy & industrial capex visibility (Vista Energy, Diamondback Energy, Trinity Capital) – Energy results remain about capital allocation discipline versus production growth. Free cash flow deployment, buybacks and commentary on drilling budgets are key. If capex remains controlled despite stable oil prices, it reinforces the “cash return” narrative

Initial Equity Research - Sky Harbour

Sky Harbour Group (NYSE: SKYH) is an aviation infrastructure company building the first nationwide network of private hangar campuses for business aviation in the United States. Its value proposition is as simple as it is disruptive: giving private jet owners something the traditional market cannot provide - a premium, purpose-built campus that is genuinely the home of their aircraft. Not a shared box in an FBO facility, but a dedicated environment designed from the ground up for the high-net-worth aircraft owner. The company currently operates 9 campuses across markets like Miami, Nashville, Silicon Valley, Phoenix and Dallas, with a funded pipeline that takes that number to 23 by 2027 and a stated ambition of 50+ airports nationwide.

The company went public in January 2022 through a SPAC merger. The share price reached $15 in 2023, but construction delays and the weight of a capital-intensive build programme have pushed it back to around $9 - implying a market capitalisation of approximately $684M and an enterprise value close to $1.1B. The company’s current valuation is almost entirely dependent on expectations around growth, pricing power, and the financing conditions of its campus expansion. It is therefore crucial to understand these variables in order to assess whether the stock is currently priced close to perfection - with meaningful downside if execution falls short - or whether it truly possesses the long-term potential that many of its strongest proponents believe it does.

We have been following Sky Harbour for almost two years. We decided to publish our research now because several things have changed simultaneously: the company has just reached operating cash flow breakeven at its most mature campuses, it has secured over $350M in committed financing for its 2026–2027 construction programme without equity dilution — which we consider a genuinely significant capital markets achievement for a company in this situation — and construction volume is programmed to step up materially this year.

Whether that combination represents a compelling entry point or a moment where expectations have run ahead of reality is exactly what this analysis addresses.

In this research we cover:

• A detailed breakdown of the business model and what makes it structurally different from anything publicly traded today

• The structural demand thesis: is the hangar shortage real, durable, and large enough to support the ambitions of this company?

• An honest assessment of the moat: what genuinely protects this business, and where the defences are thinner than the narrative suggests

• A full map of the campus portfolio: what is operational, what is under construction, and what the pipeline actually implies for revenues through 2030

• The financing structure in detail: how the company is funding $350M+ in construction, what it costs, and what the real risks inside that capital stack are

• The unit economics of a stabilised campus, using figures disclosed directly by management — and what they imply for the return profile at scale

• A bottom-up valuation of the 2030 portfolio using a NOI and cap rate framework, with a full sensitivity analysis

• The key risks and things to monitor

• Our honest opinion about Sky Harbour

Read more

Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today

The Week in the Markets

• Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.

• Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!

Equity Research

• Transocean - Deep dive into the new Transocean after the M&A with Valaris creating the leading company in offshore drilling industry. We analyse the combined fleet - with special focus on the drillship segment (rig-by-rig and contract-level detail) - the implications of the merger for the broader industry, the new balance sheet (updated maturity profile, interest burden), the economics of the new Transocean (EBITDA modelling, FCF impact and deleveraging path), its capital allocation going forward, and our independent valuation and view on the opportunity.

• Webbeds - Analysis of the closest competitor to HBX Group (Hotelbeds) - an Australian company with strong growth, but facing challenges since the demerger of its B2C segment 18 months ago, and more recently a share price collapse following a tax audit notice involving its Spanish subsidiary.

Portfolio Management

• Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.

Investor Resources

• Data Center Update

• Financial model Updates

Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web

The Week in the Markets

Last week turned risk-off across major indices, with both the U.S. and Europe closing in negative territory. The pressure was particularly visible in Financials - which is increasingly perceived as exposed to AI-driven disruption - and the Magnificent 7 due to the sheer scale of capital expenditure required to sustain the AI race

The fear index (VIX) spiked again, ending the week above 20, while gold finished higher once more, holding above $5,000/oz. If there is one defining feature of this start to the year, it is the pronounced rotation taking place across markets.

Capital is flowing out of industries seen as easily disrupted by AI or trading at extremely elevated multiples, and moving back into hard assets - Energy, Materials, Industrials - as well as emerging markets, which have historically performed well in this type of environment.

In fact, despite the expectation that growth will continue in 2026 - given the current environment of tax cuts, lower interest rates, and solid growth, as we are seeing in these first months of the year - when it comes to sector rotation, we are seeing that analysts’ expectations for energy, materials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, and others have surged. This also helps explain the rotation we have been observing in these first weeks of the year.

On the macro level, the week was packed with key releases covering household consumption, labor market dynamics, and inflation. While the data were not uniformly strong, taken together they continue to point to gradually improving economic fundamentals, keeping the Federal Reserve broadly on track for potential rate cuts later this year.

As for inflation in January, it came in softer than expected, reinforcing the ongoing disinflation trend.

• Headline CPI rose 0.17% MoM (vs. 0.26% expected), bringing the annual rate down to 2.39%, near a four-year low. Energy prices fell 1.5%, helping offset modest increases in housing (+0.2%), food (+0.2%), airfares, and other services.

• Core CPI rose 0.30% (vs. 0.34% expected), with goods inflation remaining contained. However, supercore services (ex-housing) jumped 0.63%, driven by transportation and education.

Overall, inflation continues to ease, though services remain the main area of pressure.

Earning Season 4Q25

Key earnings themes this week

• US consumer breadth check (Walmart, John Deere) – The focus remains traffic vs pricing power: if volumes stabilise without heavy discounting, the soft-landing narrative holds; if margins compress to sustain sales, pressure may be building beneath the surface.

• Industrial & infrastructure cycle (Quanta, Devon) – These names help assess whether the rotation into hard assets has fundamental support. We care more about backlog growth, order momentum and 2026 visibility than headline EPS beats. Confirmation of sustained capex would reinforce the sector rotation story.

• Semis & enterprise tech stabilisation (Figma, Endava ) – A key week to evaluate whether enterprise tech spending is bottoming beyond hyperscaler AI capex. Order trends and margin direction matter more than top-line growth - signs of normalisation would support the idea that the broader tech cycle is improving.

• Credit & liquidity signals (Moody’s, Klarna, eToro, Remitly) – Less about the companies themselves, more about what they signal on refinancing appetite, consumer leverage and retail participation.

Deep dive into the new Transocean (after Valaris M&A)

This week, Transocean has turned the offshore drilling industry upside down by announcing the acquisition of Valaris in an all-stock transaction, creating what will become - by a wide margin - the leading player in the market. This M&A meaningfully reshapes the structure of the offshore drilling industry, consolidating ownership across the highest-spec segment of the floater market at a time when new supply remains structurally constrained.

The resulting entity (53% Transocean – 47% Valaris) will be led by Transocean’s management - arguably the strongest team in the industry. On a pro forma basis, the combined company becomes the clear leader in high-spec floaters, controlling 100% of the active 8th-generation drillship fleet and roughly 39% of global 7th-generation capacity. It will also have a meaningful presence in the semisubmersible segment with 9 units and 31 jackups inherited from Valaris.

The scale achieved in offshore drilling enhances contracting flexibility, operational synergies and strategic positioning in long-cycle projects. In addition, Transocean’s pricing discipline applied to Valaris’ assets a dynamic that should also benefit Seadrill and Noble, not just the combined entity - may improve dayrate formation across the sector.

The M&A also carries important financial implications. By incorporating Valaris’ deleveraged balance sheet, Transocean materially improves its own financial profile and reopens the discussion around a more equity-holder-friendly capital allocation framework, rather than the bondholder-focused posture of recent years.

From our perspective, the focus changes completely after this transaction: from the survival mode of recent years to a capital allocation story with meaningful upside under certain assumptions.

Today we publish our deep research on the new Transocean, synthesising all available information, clearly outlining the key drivers, and running the numbers in detail to objectively assess the opportunity ahead - with the rigour and depth that define our work.

We analyse:

• The combined fleet, with special focus on the drillship segment (rig-by-rig and contract-level detail)

• The implications of the merger for the broader industry (Seadrill, Noble, etc.)

• A deep dive into the new balance sheet (updated maturity profile, interest burden…)

• The economics of the new Transocean (EBITDA modelling, FCF impact and deleveraging path…)

• Capital allocation going forward

• Valuation under multiple scenarios

• Our independent view on the opportunity

At MORAM Capital, we have been highly active in the offshore drilling industry over the past year - a sector we first came to know in depth by investing successfully in the debt of Chapter 11 companies during the COVID bankruptcy wave. We have also published a comprehensive industry guide explaining its economics, structure and key players, as well as Initial Equity Research reports on both Valaris and Seadrill, all of which are available on our platform.

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Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Following the publication of our Initial Equity Research on HBX Group (HotelBeds), we believe it is an excellent moment to revisit Web Travel Group / Webbeds ( WEB. AX, A$1.34Bn) , one of its closest global comparable and a company we have analysed in the past.

The stock has fallen sharply this week after issues related to the auditor of its Spanish subsidiary surfaced, adding a new layer of uncertainty to a name that has already experienced periods of volatility since its de-merger. We are therefore using this dislocation to reassess the business, its underlying economics and its current valuation, to determine whether the market reaction may be creating a short-term opportunity — or whether, as was the case 15 months ago, caution remains the right approach.

WebBeds is the B2B accommodation distribution arm that emerged from the separation of the B2B and B2C operations of Webjet Limited. The rationale was to allow investors to value the faster-growing, more scalable wholesale platform on a standalone basis. Today, the company is listed in Australia and operates globally as a hotel bed bank, connecting hotel inventory with travel agencies, tour operators, airlines and other intermediaries. Since its creation in 2012, growth has been driven both organically and through acquisitions such as JacTravel and DOTW, which helped build a broad geographic footprint and contracting scale.

From an industry perspective, WebBeds occupies the same structural niche as HotelBeds: a technology-enabled, asset-light intermediary positioned between hotels and downstream distributors. However, their development paths have differed. HotelBeds historically built its scale with a strong focus on operational discipline and margin optimisation, while WebBeds has pursued a more expansionary, acquisition-led strategy, which accelerated growth but also introduced greater complexity and, at times, more volatility in earnings and visibility. This makes WebBeds an especially relevant comparable for HotelBeds - but also a business where execution and financial consistency are more closely scrutinised by the market, particularly in moments like the current one.

Today, we publish our analysis on Webbeds to assess the potential opportunity that the market is offering

• Clear breakdown of the business model and how the bed bank platform works

• Direct comparison with HBX Group and the key structural differences between the two

• An analysis of the recent take-rate reset and margin dynamics

• A deep dive into the financials, operating leverage and cash conversion

• The capital structure, including the April-26 convertible and liquidity position

• The main value drivers and key execution risks

• Our valuation following a DCF method

• Our independent view on the situation

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