The NBA Finals resume Wednesday night with Game 4 at Madison Square Garden, but things are getting undeniably busier, too, for the 28 teams watching the championship round from home.

There are less than two weeks to go now before the 2026 NBA Draft, which is another way of saying: Trade Season is almost upon us. Then free agency starts one week after that.

We're getting to the point on the calendar, in other words, where around-the-league notebooks like these can (and probably will) become a daily (or near-daily) occurrence. We're hearing lots of stuff as a duo and are determined to get it into written form for you as quickly as we can. So …

After making sure you saw the above Tuesday night news update from the Finals — San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama was not assessed any retroactive sanction for his first-quarter toss of New York's Jalen Brunson to the floor in Game 3 that was missed by the referees in real time — here is our most up-to-date leaguewide trade chatter …

We lead off, naturally, with the latest on Giannis Antetokounmpo's future.

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The usual upbeat intro to trumpet the distribution of the Sunday Best around-the-league notes has been scrapped on this occasion. For deeply sad reasons.

A somber tone has gripped the eve of a momentous Game 3 in the NBA Finals after we learned Sunday that beloved Chicago Bulls broadcaster Stacey King, who played on three Bulls championship teams before moving into the booth, has died at age 59.

The Finals resume Monday night and the NBA Draft is just two weeks and change away, but it was impossible not to be thinking of King if you were thinking about basketball.

I have assembled all of my latest around-the-league Intel below, but I realize you might prefer to hear more about King and his connection to the Bulls and their fans after some two decades on their broadcast team. Here are my dear CHGO Bulls colleagues paying tribute to King in podcast form:

Veteran players dread the moment they are faced with signing a minimum contract after playing on more lucrative deals earlier in their careers. And justifiably so.

It's because they know it is really hard, once a player slips into veteran minimum territory, to drag themselves up out of it.

Yet we're all watching it happen in real time in these NBA Finals with New York's Landry Shamet.

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The playoffs don't just determine the season's champion. They help shape many teams' offseason strategies, illuminate leaguewide trends and often reveal roster shortcomings as teams are eliminated.

One clear theme that keeps coming up in discussions with representatives from the 28 teams watching these NBA Finals from afar: How do we combat Victor Wembanyama?

Wemby's late-game missteps Friday night, when he committed a crucial turnover and missed a potential game-winning shot in the final 10 seconds of a devastating 105-104 Game 2 defeat to the New York Knicks, don't change the leaguewide reality. San Antonio's French phenom has cast a 7-foot-4 shadow (at least) over offseason possibilities all over the NBA map. Front office figures mention him often when handicapping the Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Sweepstakes, since The Greek Freak would be an ideal counter to Wemby for whichever team is fortunate enough to acquire him. And you certainly hear often that teams are generally looking to add more size in the draft later this month and via the trade market or free agency.

The tallest Spur you can think of, whatever his actual height, is certainly a catalyst for such thinking.

Let's dive into the latest trade rumbles we've been collecting all week while Wemby and his Spurs, who are suddenly facing a daunting 2-0 series deficit as these Finals shift to Madison Square Garden, have been center stage ...

As much as the idea of Oklahoma City splurging for Giannis to counter Wemby might make sense on paper, league sources with knowledge of the Thunder's thinking continue to dismiss them as a legitimate Antetokounmpo suitor.

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It's been rather difficult to try to separate the NBA playoffs from the NBA's annual springtime coaching carousel.

That applies even to the NBA Finals.

On Wednesday night, San Antonio defensive coordinator Sean Sweeney's 42nd birthday coincided with a rather significant day at work: The Spurs' first Finals game since 2014. Just two days earlier, of course, Sweeney was officially named as the new head coach of the Orlando Magic.

Sweeney was coveted by essentially every team that has had an opening since the end of the regular season apart from Milwaukee, which quickly zeroed in on Taylor Jenkins. Yet three coaching vacancies remain leaguewide even after Orlando swooped for Sweeney to punctuate a process also headlined by Billy Donovan and Jeff Van Gundy, prompting The Stein Line's publisher and twice-weekly contributor to join forces on this around-the-league notes compilation that will catch you up on everything happening in Portland, Chicago and Dallas.

Let's start in North Texas ...

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The San Antonio Spurs are the seventh different team to represent the Western Conference in the past seven NBA Finals.

The New York Knicks haven't lost a basketball game of any kind since April 23.

Victor Wembanyama was born nearly five years after the Spurs and Knicks last met on the NBA's grandest stage in 1999.

Jalen Brunson has led the Knicks to 35 playoff wins across the last four postseasons … after they managed just eight during the previous 21 seasons overall.

The Spurs began this playoff run with a top-eight rotation (based on minutes played) that had a combined 50 games of playoff experience … fewer than any top-eight rotation #thisleague has seen since the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers led by Bill Walton had 45 such games of collective experience.

The Knicks are the first team in league history to face a team coming off a seven-game series in three consecutive playoff rounds.

Think you get the point.

This series, entering Wednesday night's Game 1 on the Spurs' floor, is packed with angles and backstories.

Who is going to win it all? Now is your chance to tell us in permanent ink. Just scroll to the comments and seize the opportunity to tell the world.

We collected community predictions before Round 1 and again before the conference finals in both the East and the West and hope for a strong turnout of responses before this file gets locked just prior to the Knicks and Spurs tipping off the opener in the Alamo City.

For tallying purposes, which will be handled as always by longtime subscriber/trusty tabulator Deven P., please list your winning team only and the number of games for the series.

Just like so …

Spurs in 7

We repeat: Please register your picks in the comments section below and share this piece with a friend, too. The process is so much more fun when we get the largest possible turnout.

The NBA, no matter what, is headed for a record eighth new champion — as in eight completely different franchises — in a span of eight seasons.

Which of these two teams, Knicks or Spurs, will fill in the blank in the top row of the handy graphic below provided by my Prime Video colleagues?

Tell us below in the comments! We had nearly 100 respondents last year and I'd love to see that happen again.

PS — Shoutout to my Amazon colleague and statistical maven pal for all the fun facts listed above.

PPS — My former ESPN teammate John Hollinger, now of The Athletic, highlighted another good one in his Spurs In 7 prediction piece: San Antonio is a ridiculous 39-5 in its last 44 games, regular season and playoffs, in which Wemby has played more 20 minutes.

PPPS — Below please find the usual interesting graphic from Sportico's Lev Akabas … with the obvious caveat that Wemby is a likely future MVP:

The Stein Line is a reader-supported newsletter with both Free and Paid subscriptions available … and those who opt for the Paid edition are taking an active role in the reporting by providing vital assistance to bolster my independent coverage of #thisleague. Feel free to forward this post to family and friends interested in the NBA and please consider becoming a Paid subscriber to have full access to all of my posts.

As a reminder: Tuesday editions on this and every Newsletter Tuesday go out free to anyone who signs up … just as my Tuesday pieces did in their New York Times incarnation.

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Conference Finals Results

There were nearly 40 respondents to our last call for community predictions.

Beyond stating the obvious — we are obviously rooting for a more robust response to this call for Finals picks — I wanted to pass along a few items from Deven P's tallying:

🏀 Nicea Wilson was the only reader to correctly predict a Knicks-In-Four sweep of Cleveland in the East finals.

🏀 Six prognosticators correctly touted the Spurs to win a Game 7 in Oklahoma City: Aman Brar, Ray Briggs, Cullen Connick, John Steppling, Dominique Vielot and Ryan (no last name furnished).

🏀 No one picked both winners in the precise game count. Here is Deven's breakdown of the most common forecasts from the round:

(Substack) Note(s) of the Week

The latest declaration(s) of note from Substack Notes:

Around-the-league NBA notes on a Monday?

On a Monday, rather, with only two more sleeps in front of us until the NBA Finals begin with Knicks at Spurs in Game 1?

On a Monday (rather than Sunday) right after home teams dropped to 9-12 in Game 7s since the NBA moved out of the Walt Disney World bubble in Orlando and back into its usual arenas?

As it should be!

To the latest from my notebook on the Thunder's next moves after the reigning champs' playoff elimination, lots of Giannis Antetokounmpo trade talk and more from the league's ongoing hiring cycle:

Giannis to the Thunder?

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The metaphorical ground beneath the NBA shook forcefully Thursday.

San Antonio forced a Game 7 in the Western Conference finals with withering third quarter defense that discombobulated the reigning champions from Oklahoma City. The New York Knicks' opponent in next week's NBA Finals thus won't be known until Saturday night's series-decider.

But first …

The NBA also ushered in significant lottery changes for next season to try to combat a tanking epidemic. The reform passed by a resounding vote of 29-1. Only the Memphis Grizzlies officially opposed the implementation of the NBA's new "3-2-1" system.

One inevitably suspects, though, that could be plenty of howling about how far these changes from the league office went once we actually see them in practice.

Some of the tweaks are undeniably promising. The prospect of being able to watch where each of the first 16 picks in the draft lands on live TV by way of 37 Ping Pong balls in total, compared to how the lottery order is conducted first in a sequestered room under the current system, is tantalizing. It also surely won't surprise you that this lifelong soccer devotee is highly intrigued by the introduction of the NBA's so-called relegation zone.

It's not actual relegation as seen over all the globe in world football, but Adam Silver's version — imposing less of a shot at the No. 1 overall pick on the three worst teams in the league compared to the teams with the fourth- through 10th-worst records as shown in the NBA-issued graphics above — could prove to be an inspired tweak.

It's a move which should ensure that teams at the very bottom will try harder than they have been trying to win games late in the season. Closing out an 82-game marathon on a 1-26 skid, like the Washington Wizards just did en route winning the rights to the No. 1 overall pick in this June's draft, will no longer be rewarded. Also key here: Three teams getting "draft relegated," as the league is officially calling it, means that the NBA is the first major team sport in North America to find a way to work relegation into its lexicon ... even if, again, it's not letter-of-the-law relegation.

Inspired indeed.

However …

You've also surely heard that the lottery changes ratified via Thursday's vote by the NBA's Board of Governors are only guaranteed to be in place for the next three seasons: 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29.

The league is essentially telling us that it can't be sure that the new format is the best route forward.

The NBA's existing Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2029-30 season and features a mutual opt-out clause after 2028-29, so "sunset" language has been weaved into the league's lottery overhaul to ensure that this array of tweaks will only be in place for three years. Consider it a testing period before long-lasting backing, or a movement to pursue further changes, is folded into the next round of labor talks.

The impact from these alterations, mind you, will be immediate. And significant.

Jake Fischer has been writing for weeks now about how teams out there are expected to be more reluctant to trade first-round picks in 2027, 2028 and 2029 if they think those picks have any shot to land in the late lottery. Picks from 4 through 10 in this new system — and quite possibly 11 through 16 — are likely to be more valuable than ever before.

Which means teams are presumably going to be more reluctant than ever before to part with them.

Is that what we want? Is that good for the NBA? Isn't modern team-building complicated enough? Significant trades could well be more difficult to complete going forward with draft picks sweetening offers to the fullest, which sounds rather ominous in a league where trades — rather than free agency — have by far become the most significant generator of difference-making player movement.

You can likewise certainly understand Memphis' dismay. The Grizzlies traded Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Jazz in February for a package that included Utah's first-round pick in 2027. The new rules, however, suddenly stipulate that Utah's pick can't land higher than sixth in the 2027 lottery because the Jazz have come away with top-five selections in the past two drafts. Why do the new rules affect draft picks that were traded under a previous system? Why is Memphis being punished for Utah's tanking? How is it fair to the Grizzlies that a pick they acquired three months ago has been retroactively downgraded with a top-five-protected stipulation that no one knew was coming when the trade was agreed?

Back to future trade activity: There's yet another potential stumbling block to consider. Suddenly no team knows how the lottery will function beyond the draft in 2029, which could make surrendering first-round picks further down the road even more uncomfortable than trading them in next three drafts. No one in the NBA — or, truthfully, any universe — relishes the unknown. One GM, in response to the uncertainty, had already told Jake before the vote: "I'm not trading any picks beyond 2029."

These are just a few potential issues. Tanking was an undeniable scourge this season, but it was also likely to decrease leaguewide anyway next season because the player pool for the 2027 draft is not projected to be nearly as deep as this one. So it's impossible to tune out the fears from various teams already in circulation that we will be coming away from Lottery Reform 2026 regarding it as an overcorrection.

At the very least: We're definitely going to need these next three years to truly evaluate the NBA's revamp.

All three of them.

The Stein Line is a reader-supported newsletter with both Free and Paid subscriptions available … and those who opt for the Paid edition are taking an active role in the reporting by providing vital assistance to bolster my independent coverage of #thisleague. Feel free to forward this post to family and friends interested in the NBA and please consider becoming a Paid subscriber to have full access to all of my posts.

As a reminder: Tuesday editions on this and every Newsletter Tuesday go out free to anyone who signs up … just as my Tuesday pieces did in their New York Times incarnation. Unless, that is, they are shifted to Friday (or Saturday) like this one.

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One more time ...

One more time for a piece Jake and I co-wrote Friday featuring considerable coverage about the Cavaliers' expensive future:

And for Jake's excellent around-the-league notebook that published Wednesday with loads of Intel about lottery reform and next month's draft:

And for my Monday Best around-the-league notes that went heavy on Giannis Antetokounmpo's future as well as Philadelphia's search for a new head of basketball operations:

(Substack) Note(s) of the Week

Declaration(s) of note via Substack Notes:

OK … and one from what the kids used to call Twitter:

Some pressing news updates from around the NBA after San Antonio forced a Game 7 in the Western Conference finals with a smothering home victory over the reigning champions from Oklahoma City … covering Orlando, Philadelphia, Cleveland and more:

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Wednesday night is an off night when it comes to the NBA playoffs thanks to New York swiftly brooming Cleveland away in four games.

A critical deadline for next month's NBA Draft nonetheless looms leaguewide at 11:59 PM ET. That's the final buzzer for college underclassmen to decide whether or not to keep their names in this year's draft pool in hopes of being selected with one of the NBA's 1-to-60 picks.

Some clarity for front offices has already been achieved this week thanks to Santa Clara's breakout freshman Allen Graves deciding Tuesday to keep his name in the draft. On the flip side, Kentucky big man Malachi Moreno opted to stay with the Wildcats.

Now the NBA's scouting community is waiting to learn of the decisions made by notables such as Arizona freshman Koa Peat, Baylor freshman Tounde Yessoufou and Vanderbilt sophomore Tyler Tanner.

Let's dive into the latest draft-related gems from my notebook as well as some Intel related to impending lottery reform, which will be voted on Thursday by the league's 30 teams in a specially commissioned Board of Governors session:

Never before have so many players' draft decisions been more about literal dollars and cents.

There was a conventional wisdom for years that applied to any player NBA scouts considered a first-round lock: They simply could not pass on two guaranteed seasons of money in the pros plus team options for Year 3 and 4. A dream come true. Fortune secured.

Things have changed in this ever-evolving world of NIL-funded college ball.

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Around-the-league NBA notes on a Monday?

Moved from Sunday to Monday on Memorial Day weekend?

With the Knicks on the verge of their first NBA Finals berth this century?

As it should be!

We went long Friday on the Portland coaching search below (with a key update on Orlando's as well) and proceed now to a look at the latest on Giannis Antetokounmpo's future, Philadelphia's front office machinations and more:

The league's dominant player movement topic last week?

Giannis. For sure.

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There are four unfilled coaching vacancies in the NBA, but a clearer picture of what's next in Portland is starting to come into focus.

My former podcast partner and current Prime Video teammate Chris Haynes reported Thursday that LA Clippers assistant Jeff Van Gundy has emerged as a finalist for the position.

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After Nico Harrison's dismissal on Nov. 11, no one in the Dallas Mavericks' organization had a louder voice or greater influence than head coach Jason Kidd.

New Mavericks owner Patrick Dumont leaned on Kidd frequently for counsel over the next six-plus months as he pondered how to move the franchise forward and, of course, replace Harrison as the team's lead basketball decision-maker.

Yet that all changed on May 4 when Masai Ujiri — without any advance warning to Kidd — was installed as the Mavericks' new team president of basketball operations and alternate governor.

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Hello from the conference finals …

I'm set for a return to Madison Square Garden for Game 1 of Knicks/Cavs. Won't be going to my usual Tuesday night pickup run because the home team is taking over Manhattan for the evening.

The on-court action, mind you, is only the NBA's most visible chaos this time of year. Numerous teams are preparing for a consequential trades-filled offseason … rife with personnel change that has already started on the coaching and front office front before we even get to next month's draft and the roster movement. In some respects, though, things aren't progressing as quickly as anticipated. Two coaching agents I spoke with, noting that only two of the league's five head coaching vacancies have been filled, described the marketplace so far as somewhat slow-moving.

Dallas (Masai Ujiri) and Chicago (Bryson Graham) have new lead decision-makers, but Philadelphia has just opened the league's third such search after last week's ouster of Daryl Morey. Chicago, Orlando and Portland, meanwhile, all still need a new coach after New Orleans removed itself from that list Monday by signing Jamahl Mosley to a five-year deal.

It's already time, then, for another around-the-league notebook to get into all the above after our publisher's lengthy Sunday Best notes featured tons of new Intel:

The Magic are advancing their process to replace Mosley, according to league sources, moving into formal conversations with candidates for the position.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just won his second straight MVP trophy.

His Oklahoma City Thunder, bidding to become the NBA's first repeat champions since the dynastic Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, play host to Victor Wembanyama's San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals on Monday night.

Then on Tuesday night it's Game 1 of New York vs. Cleveland at Madison Square in the Eastern Conference finals after the Cavaliers' resounding Game 7 rout at Detroit.

All of the above, of course, means it's time once again for you to register your conference finals predictions in permanent ink. We ran out of time to do this before the start of the second round due to a rash of breaking news, but we did collect community predictions before Round 1 and hope for a strong turnout before this file gets locked prior to the Thunder and Spurs tipping off tonight.

For tallying purposes, which will be handled as always by longtime subscriber/trusty tabulator Deven P., please list your winning team only and the number of games for both conference pairings.

Just like so …

Thunder in 7

Knicks in 6

Please register your picks in the comments section below and share this piece with a friend, too. The process is more fun when we get the largest possible turnout.

Around-the-league NBA notes on a Sunday?

On the same Sunday night that brings the second round of the playoffs to a close?

To supplement your Prime Video viewing of Cavs-at-Pistons Game 7?

As it should be!

To the latest from my notebook on the looming specter of change in Cleveland, next moves in Philadelphia and New Orleans, some additional coaching carousel chatter … and news that will surely please Victor Wembanyama:

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If you were in the building ... you were thinking it.

You were also surely thinking it if you were watching on TV.

You had to be thinking it Monday night because, well, we were all thinking it.

Is this LeBron James' final NBA game?

There is a gap, however, between mere thought and true expectation. My belief/sense/read, when forced to adopt a predictive posture, is that we have not seen the last of LeBron in the NBA. Everyone I've asked in the league who I would classify as better positioned than me to offer up their read says the same. No one can name the team yet with certitude, but it sure seems more likely than not that James will be back in 2026-27 for Season No. 24.

Is he really going to leave the game for good when he was just the best player in the Houston series in Round 1 at age 41?

I think not.

However ...

The truth is that no one knows for sure. Maybe not even LeBron himself. So surmising is all we can do at this juncture. James keeps insisting that he isn't sure yet — his lack of clarity voiced after Oklahoma City ended the Lakers' season was pretty much the same thing he said during All-Star Weekend in Los Angeles — and it's a reasonable position for him to share out loud given all the complicating variables involved.

James' eight seasons in Lakerland represent the longest continuous stint of his career with one team. Staying in Los Angeles, by all accounts, is his runaway A scenario preference. His son Bronny, of course, remains under contract to the Lakers for one more guaranteed season before a team option in 2027-28.

Yet it's also an open secret that the Lakers want to remake their roster around Luka Dončić this offseason and have been pointing to the summer of 2026 to do so for some time ... with cap space they'll only have by letting James' $52.6 million salary in 2025-26 dribble off the books on June 30.

Re-signing him at a much lower number is believed to appeal to the Lakers ... but selling one of the game's all-time greats on the sort of steep discount he's never taken is thorny. To put it mildly.

Is James really going to be amenable to playing at a drastically reduced rate?

The only comfort for the Lakers there, before any such discount talks get serious, is that pretty much any other team that would conceivably interest James as a potential destination faces their own financial challenges.

The Golden State Warriors, who league sources say have maintained a longstanding interest in bringing James to Northern California, will be severely limited in what they can offer. James' hometown Cleveland Cavaliers have even less financial flexibility than the Warriors and are so far away from all the Tinseltown ties that LeBron and his family have established during this run as a Laker ... but no one wants to totally rule that one out because of the storybook ending factor. (Also: The Cavs were once resistant to the idea of another reunion, but they might be more open to a third marriage given that they're facing the prospect of a third successive humbling postseason after failing to close out Detroit at home on Friday night and now need to win a Game 7 on the road Sunday to keep their season alive.)

Beyond that?

James' deep fondness for Madison Square Garden has been known for years, but the Knicks — suddenly favorites to win the East and go to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999 — could certainly opt to stay on their current path. The only other team you could credibly add to the shortlist is the Clippers, who employ James' former Cavaliers coach (Tyronn Lue) and do play in Los Angeles.

There just simply aren't many places you can imagine appealing to James for a farewell season and pretty much none (as CBS Sports' Sam Quinn detailed this week) that wouldn't also be confronted by significant contractual challenges if they do decide to make a run at it.

That's a big reason why James can so credibly claim that he doesn't know yet if he's going to keep going. We might realistically sit a good six weeks away from having a solid feel for what kind of firm offers he'll have to choose from.

And that's why there was so much Just In Case energy in the air at The Building Formerly Known As Staples Center when a 115-110 loss to Oklahoma City clinched a 4-0 series sweep for the Thunder and brought an end to No. 23's 23rd NBA campaign.

Lynn Merritt, LeBron's longtime Nike brand manager and confidant, flew in from Oregon to be courtside. Hollywood A-listers like Jessica Alba, Leonardo DiCaprio and the legendary Eddie Murphy were all occupying prominent seats, too, even though the Lakers' season, in truth, was already gone before the opening tip with the Thunder up 3-0 in the series and Dončić still not close to being cleared to return from his devastating Grade 2 hamstring strain. Even the Suns' Dillon (The Villain) Brooks, after years of trying to annoy James in countless matchups, had secured to a ticket to be close by.

Just in case.

I, too, was in attendance. And I, too, got swept up in the moment and felt the need to snap a few pictures of James going through his pregame preparatory routine.

If it does prove to be his farewell — in the event that the sweep-clinching Game 4 defeat was unexpectedly really it — it means that I can selfishly say that I was present for James' first real NBA game (Oct. 29, 2003 in Sacramento) as well as his last. (PS — Unfortunately just discovered while assembling this paragraph, by the way, that the ESPN.com link to my story from that night no longer displays that story … gut punch.)

Yet I repeat: My suspicion is that he'll be back next October.

I used to think there was even a chance that James might try to become the first player in league history to play in 25 seasons, but two well-placed league observers whose viewpoint I truly trust here insisted this week that one more season is the far smarter and safer forecast ... pointing to the back and leg woes that messed with James' offseason training last summer and ultimately sidelined him for this season's first 14 games.

There is little doubt, though, that he can still be a difference-maker next season even after turning 42 in December. The Rockets found that out the hard way when James averaged 23.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.3 assists in Round 1.

As Oklahoma City's Alex Caruso put it recently: "Everybody wants to talk about his age, but he's still LeBron James. He's still capable of being the best player on the court any given night."

I normally wouldn't have had the chance to observe James from such close range before Game 4 if he hadn't changed things up recently. He used to get in his pregame shooting for home games early in the afternoons, hours before media members were typically allowed inside, but the increased offensive load he had to carry with Dončić sidelined led James to opt for more robust shooting drills within an hour-ish of tipoff time to be warmer for the first quarter than the old routine allowed. So I was mere steps away to watch him get loose and even capture a (hopefully passable) image or two.

Just in case.

The Stein Line is a reader-supported newsletter with both Free and Paid subscriptions available … and those who opt for the Paid edition are taking an active role in the reporting by providing vital assistance to bolster my independent coverage of #thisleague. Feel free to forward this post to family and friends interested in the NBA and please consider becoming a Paid subscriber to have full access to all of my posts.

As a reminder: Tuesday editions on this and every Newsletter Tuesday go out free to anyone who signs up … just as my Tuesday pieces did in their New York Times incarnation. Unless, that is, they are shifted to Friday like this one.

Subscribe now

Thanks for reading The Stein Line! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Share

Playoff Math

Two of the NBA's four second-round matchups played out in sweeps, but that didn't stop NBA advanced stats maven from digging deeper to try to quantify the physicality advantages that the teams doing the sweeping imposed.

Beech, remember, founded 82games.com in the early 2000s and ranks as one of the pioneers in the NBA analytics space, having worked on the Dallas Mavericks' coaching staff starting in 2009-10, working his way up to a vice president of basketball operations title with the Mavericks and later moving to Sacramento as vice president of basketball strategy and data science for the Kings.

🏀 According to Beech's metrics, Oklahoma City won the physicality battle in three of its four wins over the Lakers and was especially effective in the "ball pressure" department … both in how the Thunder handled the Lakers' pressure and trapping of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as well as how many turnovers they forced with their own defense. The Thunder pressure the ball better than anyone in the NBA and also had a big edge over the Lakers at the rim thanks to Chet Holmgren's monster +29 reading in terms of two-way rim physicality. Beech notes, though, that LeBron James came away with a +27 net wins mark in physicality duels with an extremely physical team, showing what an impact he can still have.

🏀 The Knicks didn't just broom Philadelphia out of the playoffs and usher the 76ers into an offseason of upheaval that began with the firing of president of basketball operations Daryl Morey. They also dominated Beech's Playing Hard metrics in this series … especially so in various defensive effort plays that he describes as quickness in joining a trap, applying pressure from a help position, making multiple efforts on a possession, executing effective switches and strongly contesting a jump shot. The top three players in the series in terms of their overall Playing Hard score were New York's Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. Tyrese Maxey, meanwhile, had moments of force for Philadelphia but they were undone by his shotmaking woes (43.3% from the field and 15.8% from deep) that were presumably impacted by a pinky injury on Maxey's shooting hand.

(Substack) Note(s) of the Week

Declarations of note via Substack Notes:

CHICAGO — Tuesday's NBA Draft Combine festivities began at 8 AM, when contingents from all 30 front offices met with as many as 20 individual draft prospects.

Some teams include their owner as part of that interview group. Every team tends to stock their space — picture a standard hotel room in the Marriott Marquis with the bed removed — with snacks, drinks and anything else they can imagine to spruce up the surroundings. I know of at least one team that brought plants into their temporary HQ to try to make it feel more cozy.

The rest of the day's action featured the endless side chats and huddles that you see throughout the hotel lobby and around the adjoining Wintrust Arena.

One byproduct of all those ongoing whispers is the Intel relayed to us that we have turned into our second dispatch from the Windy City to add to Sunday's scenes-from-the-lottery notebook that generated so much interest. Check it out here ICYMI:

And now to new material … which includes the latest from Philadelphia after the 76ers parted ways with lead decision-maker Daryl Morey.

But before we get to Philly …

With the long-anticipated trade sweepstakes for Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo poised to move into overdrive and smother the offseason leaguewide, there has been considerable discussion on the ground here about the valuation of future draft capital.

The NBA's much-discussed new “3-2-1” lottery format is expected to win approval in a May 28 Board of Governors vote to be implemented next season, which would present teams with the fourth-through-10th-worst records in the league with an equal 8.1% shot at winning the No. 1 overall pick. Those impeding changes have led various NBA executives here to tell me that they think we're going to see fewer future picks traded for star players in the near term … at least until front offices get a better feel for how the looming tweaks to the NBA's lottery system affect proceedings.

So what does that mean for the small-market Bucks as they prepare to navigate trade offers for Giannis?

Read more

CHICAGO — Dear Readers …

I just witnessed history.

Allow me to relive it with you now that I have retrieved my cell phone from a large manila envelope that was in the NBA's possession for nearly 90 minutes once I was granted admittance to the sealed-off room where the league's annual draft lottery actually takes place.

I used the word history because the Washington Wizards on Sunday became the first team under the NBA's current lottery system — last significantly tweaked going into the 2019 draft — to win the rights to the No. 1 overall pick after posting the league's worst record.

The previous three teams with the worst record in the NBA (Utah and Detroit twice) fell as far as they could in the lottery to No. 5 overall.

I write history, too, because the league's most recent move to flatten lottery odds — affording an even 14.0% shot at No. 1 to the teams with the three worst records — is going out of business. We're less than three weeks away now from a specially convened Board of Governors session at which teams are expected to vote in a new system that will give the NBA's bottom three teams — Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn this season — only a 5.4% shot at the No. 1 overall pick … while teams with the fourth-though-10th-worst records get an 8.1% shot at ultimate lottery glory.

Let's get into it all here. Lottery reform, Sunday's standout developments, draft and trade rumbles already in circulation … everything I picked up from the sequestered room where it all goes down.

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Sorry, Moms.

Mother's Day doubles as an NBA holiday in 2026.

That's certainly not the first time I've used that line in recent weeks, but there's really no other way to say it when the league's Draft Lottery — which also happens to be one of the most anticipated lotteries ever as well as the last edition under the current system before major changes are instituted — is scheduled for Sunday at 3 PM ET.

Our twice-a-week contributor Jake Fischer will be one of the 16 reporters allowed in the sealed-off, no-phones-allowed, pen-and-paper-only drawing room in Chicago where the lottery takes place before the results are revealed on live TV. Can't wait to read and hear what Jake sees.

In the interim?

Here are a few quick Friday footnotes from an incredibly busy week:

🏀 No resolution yet on Steve Kerr's status going forward as the coach in the Bay Area after 12 seasons and four championships. The expectation within the Warriors, as covered Sunday in my Intel-packed piece above, is that Kerr's return is seen as more likely than not at this stage ... especially since the sides are still actively working through next steps when the Warriors are a full three weeks removed from their last game of the season. Yet it looks increasingly likely that the wait for official clarity on Kerr's status for Year 13, barring an unexpected weekend announcement, will drag into next week. As in after Golden State learns its fate in Sunday's lottery.

🏀 Even before the Knicks' impressive Game 3 victory at Philadelphia on Friday night without the injured OG Anunoby, they had seized clear-cut Favorites in the East status. They won't lose that from us, either, even if they have to take on the Detroit/Cleveland winner without Anunoby, who obviously has to be handled with extreme caution and patience after sustaining the same sort of dreaded injury (hamstring) that has tormented the likes of Luka Dončić and Jalen Williams this spring.

🏀 The aforementioned Young Jake likewise packed a ton into his latest around-the-league compilation of Intel that dropped Thursday … most notably his reportage about the stumbling Cavaliers and the daunting 2-0 series deficit they face heading into Saturday's Game 3 in Cleveland against top-seeded Detroit. Check out all of Fischer's latest handiwork here ICYMI:

🏀 There were so many must-see news conferences throughout the week featuring lead decision-makers from various front offices. The latest: Josh Kroenke spoke at length Friday afternoon about the Nuggets' disappointing first-round elimination and acknowledged that the early exit compels Denver to consider any incoming trade pitch that does not involve Nikola Jokić. Watch it in full here:

🏀 Playoff Math, as featured in last week's Friday Freebie, will indeed return during these playoffs, but the contribution from longtime NBA advanced stats maven this week is a graphic that simply illustrates how the aforementioned Pistons — as well my beloved Buffalo Sabres — have removed themselves from an unwanted list across the four major North American team sports in terms of ending a torturous drought by finally winning a playoff series:

Yes: Sacramento and Orlando are still very much stuck on that dreaded list.

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Programming Note

We regrettably had to scrap Community Predictions for the second round of these playoffs.

Monday was so dang newsy — with Dallas (Masai Ujiri) and Chicago (Bryson Graham) making headline hires and Orlando creating a coaching vacancy — that there was simply no time to publish a community-wide call for picks like we did before the first round. The Committee (of One) ultimately decided that it just didn't make sense to do so Tuesday after two of the four Round 2 matchups were already underway.

I should have just asked for predictions via Substack Notes on Monday once it became apparent that it was the only time-friendly option. Rest assured that we'll bring the tradition back for the conference finals and NBA Finals … and at least we can share some highlights from the Round 1 predictions as compiled by our longtime trusty tabulator Deven P:

Irrational eBay Purchases (Cont’)

Saw this gem that I shouldn't have even been looking for:

Can't say I needed it or that I managed to negotiate a decent deal ... but you also don't see a Buffalo Braves basketball from the 1970s in pretty pristine condition very often.

So, yeah.

Snapped it right up.

NBA Draft Lottery Weekend is almost here.

We are just a few days away now from the final Ping Pong "air mix" machine drawing in Chicago under the league's 14-ball, 1,000-combination lottery system, which will determine the fates of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer and the many franchises hoping to obtain one of them. And I will be in the sealed-off room to witness proceedings for the fifth time.

Lottery outcomes have naturally been a dominant topic in my recent conversations with NBA executives on top of ongoing coaching searches throughout the NBA. Anticipation builds as we draw closer to every team knowing exactly what their draft positions will be on June 23-24, accelerating how numerous offseasons will play out.

We'll get to more on the lottery in a bit, but let's lead off in Milwaukee, where Bucks leadership just introduced new head coach Taylor Jenkins ... and made some revealing comments about the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Bucks general manager Jon Horst spelled out to reporters what we've been hearing for days now: Giannis did not take an active role in their pursuit of Jenkins.

As for Antetokounmpo himself …

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