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Today’s Runoff

There’s another runoff ahead of the big election in November. Today’s runoff will set up the Democratic and Republican challengers for each race.

Other important info:

• For a better background on what each position does, click on my May 19th voter guide

• To check your voter registration status, your location, or get a sample ballot, click here.

• If you are having issues with voting, finding your location, your absentee ballot, disability-related issues, machine issues, ballot collection, or anything else, you must contact the Secretary of State immediately.

• You only have three ballot options: Democratic, Republican, or Independent. You cannot vote for some party representatives if you selected a non-partisan (i.e., politically labeled) Independent Ballot. This is especially important for the judges’ section, as they are non-partisan races. Read the summary section for each judge for a greater understanding.

• Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm today.

• You can bring a sheet of paper with your candidates listed or a printed-out sample ballot

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Republican Governor nominee: Rick Jackson vs Burt Jones

This person will face off against Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Both men are MAGA but two differing flavors, the economic feudalism version (Jackson) and the stop the steal version (Jones).

Burt Jones was one of the state lawmakers who supported potentially overturning the 2020 election. He also has been the most openly pro-Trump upper level lawmaker in Georgia. His big idea, cutting income tax would leave massive holes in the state budget.

Rick Jackson is the billionaire CEO of Jackson Healthcare. He’s built himself into a Trump-like figure in Georgia by largely running the exact same playbook of culture war ads and talking points. Jackson seeks to one up Jones by cutting income and property taxes, making even larger holes in the state budget. This is a problem that will lead to more shutdowns, sell offs, and privatization of state owned properties. This would also lead to higher prices and greater statewide inequality as making Georgia’s wealthiest earners a near permanent overclass.

Republican US Senate nominee: Mike Collins versus Derek Dooley.

One of these men will face off against Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff.

Derek Dooley is the son of famed University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley. He is running on dual-culture warrior plays as a “Kemp conservative” and the stoic-leader trope, based on his time as a former University of Tennessee football coach. His platform is “Georgia First,” mimicking the Trump administration’s current tenure.

Mike Collins is a current US Congressman representing the 10th district of Georgia. He is openly MAGA and hoping to level up with a longer-term, 6-year US Senate seat. His biggest claim to fame is getting the Laken Riley Act to pass, an immigration bill built on the slaying of a University of Georgia student killed by an undocumented man with a history of violence.

Secretary of State (SOS)

Both parties will confirm nominees today to challenge each other in November.

Democrats: Dana Barrett vs Penny Brown Reynolds

Barrett is a former Fulton County commissioner who refused to seat stop-the-steal conservatives to oversee the county’s elections. Barrett wants to use the SOS office to protect against fraudulent voter challenges and stacking of seats on election boards by Republicans.

Reynolds is a former Fulton County judge who is aiming to protect voting rights. Reynolds is seeking to use the courts, in addition to the SOS office, to protect voting rights.

Republicans: Tim Fleming vs Vernon Jones

Vernon Jones is a former Democrat and DeKalb County commissioner who went full MAGA and could incite animus toward all January 6th supporters. Jones is an interesting wrinkle because he could be a Clarence Thomas-type conservative, a black face for white political animus, should he get to the Secretary of State’s office.

Tim Fleming is a Brian Kemp acolyte who would likely follow in his predecessor’s shoes by reducing Democratic + Black turnout at the ballot box and helping oversee the likely new gerrymandered maps.

Lieutenant (Lt) Governor

Both parties will confirm nominees.

Democrats: Josh McLaurin vs Nabilah Parkes

Both are state reps with differing visions of progressive ideas. McLaurin, the more small, day-to-day quality-of-life ideas and policies. Versus Parkes, who is putting all of her chips behind big-ticket ideas.

Republicans: John F Kennedy vs Greg Dolezal

Both Republicans are positioning themselves as the counterbalance to the ‘liberal’ agenda (and also potentially Governor Keisha Lance Bottoms) despite Republicans controlling every chamber in the state House and Senate.

Democratic nominee for Insurance Commissioner: DeAndre Mathis vs Keisha Waites

Keisha Waites is a former state rep and Atlanta City Council member. Waites wants to build an anti-predatory task force to address insurance scams, insurance redlining, and senior-citizen protections.

DeAndre Mathis is a former zoning commissioner for the city of South Fulton. Mathis also promises to do the same as Waites, but would also include greater accountability for insurance firms for misconduct.

Republican nominee for State School Superintendent: Richard Woods (incumbent) vs Fred Longgrear

Incumbent Richard Woods seeks to continue Georgia’s path toward a consistently conservative-minded education system. Woods is running on improving literacy skills; he also stopped funding for AP African American Studies under the state’s “divisive concepts” law.

Fred Longgrear wants a greater emphasis on ‘school discipline’ and steering students towards trades; he also has conservative Christian evangelical groups backing him.

As the Republicans are moving closer to the vision outlined in Project 2025 of propagandized national education, depending on who wins, we will see a version of that one more based in conservative Christianity or conservative nationalism.

Democratic nominee for Labor Commissioner: Michelle Sanchez vs Nikki Porter

The Republican nominee for Labor Commissioner is already set; the Dems have two nominees, Michelle Sanchez vs Nikki Porter. Sanchez is running on reforming the unemployment insurance process and providing greater worker protections. Porter is an Air Force veteran whose biggest issue is creating an affordable child care plan.

Republican nominee for Public Service Commissioner - District 5: Bobby Mehan vs Josh Tolbert

This person will face off against Democrat Peter Hubbard in November.

Mehan wants to incentivize increased fossil fuel production to lower consumer costs. Tolbert wants no additional rate increases during his six-year term and lower profit margins for Georgia Power.

Open Seat—State Senate District 7: Adrienne White Carden vs Aizaz Shaikh

This seat was left open by the departure of Nabilah Parkes.

Carden is a banker and long-time Democratic organizer. Carden is seeking to counter state gerrymandering and Republican disenfranchisement in the Senate. If Carden wins, she would be the first flip of the 2026 elections.

Shaikh is a real estate broker and Air Force veteran. Shaikh is pushing for tax cuts and Republican initiatives in the legislature.

Get out and vote…again!

-KJW

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Today’s Primary

Today, several elections are taking place across the state. Here are some important things to know.

If a candidate clears more than 50.1% of the race, they will move on to face a challenger on Tuesday, November 3rd…except if there’s a runoff (which is likely for most races), those will be held on Tuesday, June 16th.

The only exception for that would be the Supreme Court Judges’ races, it’s just on today, that’s it, unless a runoff is necessary.

Below are sections for each of the major races tomorrow, including quick summaries of the candidates, their big-picture ideas and policies, and the narratives surrounding them.

Other important info:

• To check your voter registration status, your location, or get a sample ballot, click here.

• If you have a disability and need additional information, click here.

• If you requested an absentee ballot, click here.

• If you requested an absentee ballot, but did not receive it, you must go in person to vote if the ballot has not been delivered. If you have an absentee ballot, you must drop it off today at your polling location for it to be counted.

• If you are having issues with voting, finding your location, your absentee ballot, disability-related issues, machine issues, ballot collection, or anything else, you must contact the Secretary of State immediately.

• You only have three ballot options: Democratic, Republican, or Independent. You cannot vote for some party representatives if you selected a non-partisan (i.e., politically labeled) Independent Ballot. This is especially important for the judges’ section, as they are non-partisan races. Read the summary section for each judge for a greater understanding.

• If you would like to follow the results from the Secretary of State’s office, click here.

• Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm today.

• You can bring a sheet of paper with your candidates listed or a printed-out sample ballot

What’s at stake? Democracy. A starting point to stop a further welcoming into Jim Crow 2.0…Or it’s seen as a way to stop the Democrats from not complying with Trump’s agenda. This is a Rorschach test for political sensibilities.

Sample Ballot Questions: Democrats and Republicans

Depending on what type of ballot is selected, there will be two sets of questions aimed at your political affiliation. These are typically done to help them figure out where to go in the long term. This includes what messaging should be for future elections, as well as what the political strategy should be for local and statewide campaigns currently under development or under consideration.

Democrats

The Democrats have only two statewide questions because they rely more on their county-level representatives to draft current questions.

Statewide Questions:

• Question 1: Should the State of Georgia raise the sales tax on everyday items like clothing, food, and school supplies to pay for an income tax cut that would make millionaires and billionaires richer? Yes or No? —This is a soft launch of a wealth tax on millionaires and billionaires.

• Question 2: Is it ethical for political candidates who have used their public offices to enrich themselves and their families, or have had nearly a billion dollars of business dealings with the State of Georgia, to hold statewide office? Yes or No? —This is a soft launch attack on the Kemp era of business dealings, but aimed directly at people like Republican nominees Rick Jackson and Burt Jones.

Republicans

Republicans are seeking more statewide questions as they figure out their overall strategy for 2026 and 2028.

• Question 1: Should Georgia enact the strongest election integrity measures possible, which may include hand-marked paper ballots, fines for counties that refuse to maintain current voter rolls, and restrictions on no-excuse absentee voting to restore trust in elections? Yes or No?

  —This is meant to drum up support for more punitive voting laws and restrictions. The current makeup is 50% GOP/50% Dem; the margins are growing for Dems and Independents, not Republicans.

• Question 2: Should Georgia prohibit judges from releasing criminal defendants accused of murder and other felonies without posting secure bail? Yes or No? —This is meant to be supportive of more anti-bail reform laws by focusing on murder as the carrot.

• Question 3: Should Georgia extend the death penalty to include sexual crimes against children? Yes or No? —This is meant to begin a new expansion of the death penalty. It’s also to aid in two other things happening: anti-transgender laws and looser interpretations of sexual crimes, determined by a Republican stacked state court and judicial system.

• Question 4: Should the United States Constitution be amended to limit the number of Supreme Court Justices to a maximum of nine to prevent partisan court packing schemes? Yes or No? —This is to begin a national media narrative push to stop the Democrats (should they win) from expanding the court (something Republicans could still do).

• Question 5: Should Georgia require public school systems to make all instructional materials and library content publicly accessible online for parental review? Yes or No? —This is another book ban. A ban that will also eventually expand to public K-12 schools.

• Question 6: Do you support making Georgia energy-independent by prioritizing American oil/gas production, reducing regulations, and delivering lower energy costs for families? Yes or No? —This comes as oil and fracking companies are beginning to survey in rural Georgia.

• Question 7: Do you support banning cellphone use in Georgia public schools to improve student focus, safety, and discipline? Yes or No? —This is bipartisan. Students perform better without smartphones. But the rationale here is to stop students from recording and reporting instances of racism, abuse, and propagandizing.

• Question 8: Should Georgia enact laws punishing state and local law enforcement officials who refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities in the deportation of illegal aliens charged with serious crimes? Yes or No? —This is due to multiple metro Atlanta and Democratic districts not complying with ICE. Republicans want a new set of laws for the 2027 session to force compliance.

US Senate: Jon Ossoff versus the field

This election will see Democrat Jon Ossoff defend his seat against one of several Republican challengers. The three biggest challengers are former college football coach Derek Dooley, the son of University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley. Current US Congressmen Mike Collins and Earl “Buddy” Carter.

Collins and Carter are doing their best Trump-supporting impressions while Derek Dooley is running as a ‘Kemp conservative', meaning he will continue the same policies and media stoicism as the current Governor.

What do they do?

U.S. senators serve for six years. Senators approve or disapprove Ambassadors, public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the Supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States. They also approve or disapprove of bills emerging from the US House of Representatives, as well as resolutions, amendments, motions, nominations, and treaties.

What’s important to know?

This is an election of utmost importance for both parties. The Democrats are still down in the Senate, and they need to retain a few of their seats, including in Georgia. Republicans want Georgia’s Senate seat to get close to a 60-person majority in order to further enshrine the Trump agenda, especially in the courts and key appointments. A 60+-member Senate with multiple 6-year terms can push through more thorny political issues, such as stacking the courts with more conservative judges and expanding or permanently locking in the Supreme Court.

Governor: The Democrats *could win this if they nominate the right person

For the first time in over two decades, there is an open seat for Democrats and Republicans for the governor’s office. The Democrats stand a chance to win back the governorship for the first time in over 20 years. While Republicans, despite their voters’ loyalty, have their most publicly divided leadership in the modern era.

What does the governor do?

The Democrats lost in 2002 after more conservative members finally fully switched into Republicans after a greater 1990s push by those like former US Congressman Newt Gingrich and a culture war over Roy Barnes changing Georgia’s flag from the Confederate battle flag.

Since 2002, Georgia’s conservatives have managed to win by having the same appeal of culture wars and sleight-of-hand nods to the old South. Nathan Deal, Sonny Perdue, and now Brian Kemp, the positioning has worked until Trump 2.0, but now, through decades of new growth from a large cohort of Black people, immigrants, aspiring entertainers, and former big city/blue state residents, Georgia is more politically diverse than it ever has become which is not good for Republicans, especially in the early stages of Trump 2.0. This has led to four different Democrats emerging.

Democratic nominees

There are seven nominees for Governor. The top four are Keshia Lance Bottoms, Jason Esteves, Geoff Duncan, and Mike Thurmond.

• Keshia Lance Bottoms: The former Atlanta mayor’s pitch is to stand up to Trump, expand Medicaid, negotiate prescription drug costs, and ending the Georgia Pathways program.

• Jason Esteves: The current State Senator’s plan is to expand Medicaid, update the education funding model, legalize marijuana, regulate data centers, restore women’s healthcare, repeal the 6-week abortion ban, and implement universal pre-K.

• Geoff Duncan: expand Medicaid, repeal 6-week abortion ban, create a $1.7b fund for needs-based education, open new health clinics, open rural hospitals, and maintain democracy.

• Mike Thurmond: wants to cut sales tax in half, end the tampon tax, create an earned income tax credit for childcare, provide 12 months of postpartum Medicaid coverage, and a first-time homeowners credit.

Republican nominees

There are eight nominees for Governor. The top four are Chris Carr, Brad Raffensperger, Burt Jones, and Rick Jackson.

• Chris Carr: Cut income tax in half, cut property taxes, attack Democrats politically.

• Brad Raffensperger: Property tax cuts, using taxes to attract out-of-state businesses, and restarting American jobs

• Burt Jones: wants to cut property taxes and income taxes… No plan on how to make up for that secondary source of revenue

• Rick Jackson: pledges to cut income tax in half; deport, or kill, undocumented people; forced comply with law enforcement and ICE

The Governorship for the last nearly 24 years has seen Georgia move in lock-step with other conservative state bodies like Texas and Florida. Aided by growth that has been almost exclusively in blue cities and counties, this model has given the GOP the finances of their rivals without the political agency. Now more aligned with Trumpism and MAGA than ever before, the GOP is looking to keep this going for as long as they can. While the Democrats have to win before anything can happen.

Lt. Governor

In recent years, the Lieutenant Governor has been growing in importance in pushing down or advancing agendas in the state House. Current Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones has seen most of his major initiatives pushed back, while the previous Lieutenant Governor, Geoff Duncan, was able to get them through.

If the Democrats are to win the top seats and state government, they will still have a gerrymandered House and Senate, in which their ability to push through or reject legislation will be of utmost importance for both parties.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are three nominees for Lt. Governor: Josh McLaurin, Nabilah Parkes, and Richard Wright.

Republican nominees

There are seven nominees for Lt. Governor. The major candidates are Blake Tillery, Greg Dolezal, Steve Gooch, and David Clark. Greg Dolezal is the most MAGA of all the candidates; he’s even challenging the validity of today’s election. Most of the Republicans are following the same rejected playbook of Trumpism’s vengeance strategy.

Secretary of State

The Secretary of State’s Office has been the most important position outside the governor’s office. Under Kemp and Raffensperger, the state of Georgia has undergone some of the most dramatic changes in voting.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

The democratic nominees are Cam Ashling, Dana Barrett, Adrian Consonery Jr, and Penny Brown Reynolds.

Republican nominees

There republican nominees are Tim Fleming, Vernon Jones, Kelvin King, Ted Metz, and Gabriel Sterling. Sterling is the presumed favorite.

Attorney General

The Attorney General‘s Office has been the most important in setting the Governor's agenda. Under Carr, this has been mostly used to benefit Brian Kemp when needed, take down liberal prosecutors, and stop dissent from protestors, by mass arrests and using the RICO act.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are two nominees for Attorney General: Tanya Miller and Bob Trammel. Both nominees are focused on similar goals of protecting democracy and balancing the judicial system. But Trammel has a longer history of working in the statehouse and passing laws.

Republican nominees

There are two nominees for Attorney General: Bill Cowsert and Brian Strickland. Both men follow the same playbook of ‘law and order’ prosecution, but are willing to step into more cases around immigration and enforcement.

State Supreme Court Justice

The State Supreme Court is the highest court in Georgia. Since Nathan Deal’s tenure, the court has become more arch-conservative with a slew of appointments by conservatives with ties to groups such as The Federalist Society. As a result, the Supreme Court is 9-0 in favor of Republicans, and nearly every available judgeship has been stacked with carefully chosen picks.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are two nominees for State Supreme Court Justice, Miracle Rankin and Jen Auer Jordan. Rankin and Jordan have been open about restoring women’s reproductive rights, addressing domestic abuse claims, and balancing the ideological sway of the courts.

As a result, this is something Republicans are actively trying to hold against them, as this is supposed to be non-partisan. But considering Governor Brian Kemp has been photographed with the incumbents Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren, this may* slide.

Republican nominees

There are two nominees for State Supreme Court Justice: Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren, both incumbents.

Write-In seat: Ben Land

Ben Land is a Republican who was appointed in July of 2025 by Brian Kemp. He is running unopposed; to challenge his seat, a write-in name must be used.

Court of Appeals

This court system has been important to those seeking to challenge a ruling.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are two Democratic challengers for the Court of Public Appeals, Will Wooten and Fatima Harris Felton. Wooten is challenging E. Trenton Brown, and Harris is challenging Elizabeth Gobell.

Republican nominees

There is one nominee for the Court of Public Appeals, E. Trenton Brown III, who is the incumbent.

Write-In seats:

D. Todd Markle, Sara Doyle, and J. Wade Padgette

Public Service Commissioner

While typically appointed by election, under Governor Kemp, several seats have been appointed without election, giving the board a full 5-0 positioning. This has led to power companies in Georgia serving as a rubber stamp for years of consumer price increases. 2025 was the first time in years that elections were held, and two Democrats won. Now Democrats are running again to maintain the seats won last year and potentially gain another in November.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are four nominees for Public Service Commissioner. District 3 will see incumbent Peter Hubbard defend his seat. District 5 has three nominees: Craig Cupid, Sheila Edwards, and Angelia Pressley.

Republican nominees

There are five nominees for Public Service Commissioner: District 3 challengers Fitz Johnson and Brandon Martin. District 5 challengers, Bobby Mehan, Carolyn Roddy, and Josh Tolbert.

US Congress - District 13* ONLY

This is the election for who will replace David Scott in November. Due to David Scott’s death in office, the likely top two candidates will advance to a runoff in June, then run again in November. But there will be another election in July to fill the 2026 term for the same seat.

There is one other wrinkle, depending on who wins both the governor and Secretary of State elections. This seat could be completely rewritten, rendering it moot within one term.

What do they do?

Write, develop, and nominate laws for the federal government. They also have the power to call the US into war.

Democratic nominees - May 19th edition

There are four nominees for US Congress - District 13: Everton Blair Jr, Emmanuel Jones, Dr. Jasmine Clark, Jeff Fauntleroy Sr, Dr. Heavenly Kimes, and Joe Lester.

The frontrunners are Clark and Jones, with state rep Jones in third. Clark and Blair, a former Gwinnett Schools Board member, have faced off over who’s more progressive, with the Jones team contending that Clark has taken money from a pro-AI/crypto PAC. Clark’s team has stated that they do not control outside PAC donations and spending. Clark touts her success in defeating Republicans in the state capital and passing laws, something Blair has yet to do.

Republican nominees - May 19th edition

There is only one candidate, Jonathan Chavez.

Democratic nominees - July 28th edition

There are four nominees for US Congress - District 13: Everton Blair Jr, Tony Brown, Carlos Moore, and Marcye Scott.

Republican nominees - July 28th edition

There are two nominees for US Congress - District 13, Cesar Gonzales and Fayth Park.

School Superintendent

This person will be setting the educational agenda for the state of Georgia.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are three nominees for School Superintendent: Anton Anthony, Lydia Powell, and Otha Thornton. Thornton lost a close race to Woods in 2018

Republican nominees

There are eight nominees for School Superintendent, including the incumbent, Richard Woods.

Labor Commissioner

The Labor Commissioner is the head of the office that primarily handles data collection and employment-related issues. The office also produces public and private datasets on employment trends throughout the state.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are five nominees for Labor Commissioner: Michelle Sanchez, Brett Hulme, Jason Moon, Nikki Porcher, and Christian Wise Smith.

Republican nominees

There is one nominee for Labor Commissioner, incumbent Bárbara Rivera Holmes.

What’s important to know?

This position has no term limit. The person who was appointed was a camp appointee for Augusta, Georgia, and served on the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. This person is facing several challenges, meaning that they will either have to decide to maintain the status quo, as well as whether or not to consider moving up to minimum wage, just two dollars to the national standard of $7.25 instead of the state standard of $5.15, and what the standards will be in the age of AI automation and contracted work?

Insurance Commissioner

This position is varied, it contains a need to set, regulate, and assess all types of insurance marketplaces as well as ensure fire safety regulation standards.

What do they do?

Democratic nominees

There are five nominees for Insurance Commissioner: Clarence Blalock, Thomas Dean, Deandre Mathis, Ambuj Jain, and Keisha Sean Waithes.

Republican nominees

There is only one nominee, for Insurance Commissioner, incumbent John King.

What’s important to know?

Insurance rates in Georgia will need to be monitored across multiple sectors. This person will need to decide on everything from car insurance to home insurance and other types, given that insurance rates are rising nationwide across multiple sectors. Will this person be another rubber stamp for industry, or for consumers? That is the question.

Conclusion

Get out there and vote! Bring a friend too!

-KJW

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Marjorie Taylor Greene is Resigning

In a surprising move, Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG) announced she will resign from her position on January 5th, 2026.

Greene posted a nearly 11-minute video to Twitter/X earlier this evening. In the video, Greene makes direct insinuations of her stepping away from the GOP by highlighting the treatment of victims of sexual assault and political corruption.

The decision comes after Greene became more vocal in her displeasure with Trump, the GOP, and the Make America Great Again movement over the last few months. With her biggest gripes directed at President Trump, his economic agenda, and her own party’s handling of the Epstein case, which was a hallmark of the Trump 2024 campaign but has been shrouded in even more secrecy under the second administration.

Greene has also been surprising in her condemnation of the role of Israel, lobbying groups like AIPAC, and the administration of Benjamin Netanyahu in the ongoing war against Palestine. Greene was one of the biggest supporters of Trump, the MAGA, and various conservative conspiratorial movements.

Greene has been a rising star in the party due to her outspokenness and her ability to raise both her national profile and her campaign funds in a district that had never broken through on that level before. Greene’s departure and comfortable wins in that district have now the makings of a potential political star turn for whoever can claim that seat.

What happens to her Congressional seat?

Due to her announcement, it’s likely that her seat will be filled by an appointee of Governor Kemp. The 14th district was gerrymandered in 2020/21 to give Greene arguably the safest seat in the state, while also reducing the growing power of the certifiable, Blue-leaning Cobb County. It’s likely that the person who replaces Greene and the swell of likely new challengers for that seat in 2026 could be one of the hottest races in an already contentious election year in Georgia.

Greene won that district comfortably by nearly 30 points in 2020, then again after gerrymandering in 2022 and 2024… yet despite it being the most unfavorable district for Democrats, turnout has increased each time.

Looking ahead for MTG

MTG is no longer in Congress, but it’s her choice whether to leave politics entirely. Greene has been rumored to be eyeing a position for both Governor and US Senate. While internal speculation seems to be that Greene would’ve had a hard time gaining enough internal party support against Ossoff for US Senate or breaking through a crowded field to secure her party’s nomination for Governor, and then to face a still undetermined Democratic challenger. But if she’s still considering a life in politics, it could be Greene positioning herself as a post-GOP/conservative candidate for President in 2028.

Or she could have a lucrative career ahead, either within the traditional media ecosystem, which is becoming increasingly conservative in its ownership, output, and ideological basis. The traditional media ecosystem of cable news, broadcast, and radio would welcome Greene with open arms. As well as the digital conservative media ecosystem of podcasts, YouTube channels, and news. Or delve deeper into the alt-right and conspiratorial leanings of conservative media as well. Greene is now arguably the hottest name in media and will likely field several offers.

But whatever her next move is, it’s unlikely this is the last we’ve heard of Marjorie Taylor Greene.

There are no boring news weeks in Georgia.

-KJW

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Let’s Talk Politics

Tonight at 8:30pm, I will be recapping the 2025 Georgia Public Service Commissioner, Atlanta City Council, and metro Atlanta mayoral races. I will also be talking about the Democrats surprising national showing as well.

The livestream will be available on my YouTube channel:

https://youtube.com/live/mJsknVfCsQw?feature=share

Let’s talk!

-KJW

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Greetings! Tomorrow night, in partnership with the Atlanta Civic Circle and Capital B, we are hosting a watch party for the results of several Atlanta City Council races, metro mayoral races, and the Public Service Commissioner election. The event will take place at the legendary Manuel’s Tavern, with doors opening at 6:30 p.m.

In addition, there will be a live Q&A podcast recording from 7:30 to 8:30 PM featuring me and a few special guests. The conversation will focus on the 2025 electoral cycle and what to expect in 2026 in the state of Georgia.

A Quick FYI…

A few things to note: first, free parking is available immediately behind the venue. Once this lot is full, there is additional parking across the street, but it is a paid parking lot. So get there early. Second, for those who haven’t voted yet, please do so tomorrow. Turnout has been abysmal for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

How do I find out who’s on my ballot?

If you are looking for a quick look-up of who is on your ballot tomorrow, the Atlantic Civic Circle has provided one to help you get caught up on the candidates, the issues, and their stances before tomorrow’s election. You can access that right here. And if you need to find your polling location, check out the Georgia Secretary of State’s My Voter Page website.

Please go vote. Afterwards, come to Manuel’s and say hi!

-KJW

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I promise, this is not a sales or spam post, but a small thank-you post. This message is for all of you guys (and gals), the premium subscribers to the newsletter. Thank you for rocking with me for as long as you have; I truly appreciate it. As I revamp the newsletter experience, I wanted to share a secret with you: I’m including a promo c…

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Legendary Atlanta Developer Tom Cousins Has Died

Tom Cousins, the developer best known for his work with the East Lake Golf Course, the Omni Hotel, the CNN Center, 191 Peachtree Street, and his real estate firm Cousins Properties, has passed away. He was 93. 

Cousins was born on December 7th, 1931, in Atlanta. He grew up between Decatur and Rome, Georgia, before attending the University of Georgia, graduating in 1952. In his post-collegiate career, Cousins would serve in the United States Air Force, becoming a First Lieutenant. After serving in the Air Force, Cousins would return to Atlanta and start a real estate company with his father in 1958. By 1962, the family would take the company public, listing the company on the stock market. The company today is valued at $4.6 billion, making it one of the largest local real estate firms.

Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, Cousins and local architect turned developer Jon Portman came to dominate and define the Atlanta real estate market. The two became the fundamental developers of downtown Atlanta, setting the standards for commercial buildings in the city. Cousins was also known for his work in bringing professional sports to Atlanta.

Cousins brought the St. Louis Hawks to Atlanta and was the owner of the city’s first NHL team, the Atlanta Flames, before selling them to an investment group from Calgary, Canada, in 1980, becoming the Calgary Flames. Both teams played at the Cousins-built Omni Arena, next to the Cousins-built Omni International Complex, later renamed the CNN Center.

• For more on the history of professional hockey in Atlanta, please read my previous newsletter: Could Forsyth County get an NHL team?...Should they?

The Redevelopment of East Lake Golf Course and Public Housing Project

In 1987, the Cousins Foundation was established. During the late 1980s, Cousins became more civically involved, eventually focusing on the East Lake Community, which was known for crime and its nickname "Little Vietnam” from the 1970s through the 1990s. 

In 1993, Cousins purchased the East Lake Golf Club, the course situated next to “Little Vietnam.” This acquisition became a two-pronged effort for Cousins: first, to revamp the once-renowned golf course where legend Bobby Jones played; second, to address the troubled housing project, East Lake Meadows.

In 1995, Cousins founded the East Lake Foundation, which became the nonprofit arm to tackle issues not addressed by the Atlanta Housing Authority, which began tearing down and renovating the struggling housing project, with demolition starting in 1997. By the early 2000s, the redevelopment of East Lake Meadows and the successful renovation of the East Lake Golf Club put Cousins on the national stage. The past 30 years have served as an open-source model for for-profit community redevelopment. Now, 30 years later, East Lake is a part of the PGA Tour Championship circuit, drawing thousands to Atlanta each year and millions more in revenue.

The East Lake Model

The redevelopment of the East Lake Meadows public housing project, alongside the charter school, accompanied by Drew Charter School and the East Lake YMCA, has led to a new type of redevelopment strategy known as “The East Lake Model”. This model has led to the birth of the ancillary organization Purpose Built Communities, an organization with direct ties to Cousins, Cousins Properties, the East Lake Foundation, former Atlanta mayor Shirley Franklin, and former Atlanta Housing Authority director Renee Glover.

This model of mixed-income housing, in combination with charter schools and a commercial entry point, has been replicated in cities across the US. The model would not be without its detractors, as the model relied heavily on a public-private model that relied on heavily devalued public land, a relatively low-income, low-politically robust set of residents, and heavy private investment to work.

Criticisms of the East Lake Model

The East Lake Model’s strategy would be anchored by a very selective process of evaluating and maintaining low-income residents. Less than 10 percent of East Lake Meadows residents returned to the “new” East Lake, and even fewer stayed in the coming years. While Drew Charter School, a success, has been under fire for its effects on pricing out low-income students by increasing rental and owned housing in the area.

Drew Charter School is a community school that prioritizes local students, with any overflow being placed in a lottery system. Additionally, Cousin’s net worth would be significantly impacted by the purchase of East Lake Golf Course. What was purchased at below market prices has become an asset that could potentially fetch millions of dollars if ever placed up for sale. Despite this, others still celebrate Cousins, as his efforts can be seen as the entry point of community-focused development in Atlanta. A strategy that most developers in Atlanta have, albeit to varying degrees, embraced in differing capacities.

Cousins in his later life

Cousins would step down from the day-to-day operations in 2002 as the company’s CEO and then from the board in 2006. For the last 20 years, Cousins Properties has maintained its presence in the large-scale development scene, operating primarily within the Sunbelt from Georgia to Arizona. While Cousins himself semi-retired from public life, he continued to appear at a handful of events, speeches, sporting events, and key interviews.

Tom Cousins was a titan of industry. He was the blueprint for so many in major league Atlanta real estate. The work he’s done for decades has defined and then reshaped what was considered capable in Atlanta. If there’s a Mount Rushmore of real estate in Atlanta, then you can be assured Tom Cousins has his face in it. Cousin's success and his brashness have been one of the biggest influences on the culture of real estate in Atlanta.

Cousins leaves behind a legacy steeped in Atlanta’s history. His work built the city’s skyline and downtown Atlanta in the era of white flight and rampant suburbanization. His 1980s and 1990s properties served as the stepping stones for the 2000s and 2010s Atlanta real estate world—his investment in sports made Atlanta a national player in the NBA and NHL. But his philanthropic efforts in East Lake Meadows have made him a case study in colleges, a north star for developers, beloved by leaders, and non-profits across the country. Tom Cousins was 93.

The Atlanta real estate community will remember Tom Cousins for many years.

-KJW

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I'm teaching “Night School” this Thursday.

This Thursday, July 10th, at 6:30 pm, I’m teaching “Night School”. Night School is the newest lecture and learn series in Atlanta, presented by Portrait Coffee, marketing firm Brighton & Chelsea, and non-profit Plywood People. Night School is a recurring series focused on reimaging community impact.

The session will be on journalism in the 21st century and the role of social media. We’ll delve into one of the most significant threats to truth in our communities: misinformation in the news cycle, the erosion of trust in media, and how journalism can contribute to fostering a better understanding across demographic and political lines.

The event is free, and registration is available online here. Night School will take place at Plywood People’s offices in the West End, located at the Lee + White complex. The address is 933 Lee St SW Suite B-1, Atlanta, GA 30310.

I hope to see you Thursday!

-KJW

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It is Juneteenth!

It’s Juneteenth in Atlanta, and here’s a quick rundown of events open today.

Events:

Today

• The city of Sandy Springs will be hosting a celebration today from 5-8 pm.

• Stone Mountain Park will be hosting a FREE drone show every night from today until Sunday, June 22nd.

• Downtown Hapeville will be hosting its Juneteenth celebration today from 1-6 pm.

• Downtown College Park will be hosting its Juneteenth parade and celebration today from 10 am - 5 pm.

• Adair Park is hosting its own Juneteenth celebration from 1-7 pm today.

• Roswell is hosting a Juneteenth-inspired history tour today at 11:00 a.m. and a talk at 1:00 p.m. The city is also hosting a celebration on Sunday, June 22nd.

• Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, and Alpharetta are hosting a joint Juneteenth celebration today from 5 pm to 8 pm.

• Smyrna is hosting its own Juneteenth celebration today from 5 to 10 pm at Village Green Park.

• Blaq Atlanta’s LGBTQ celebration of Juneteenth will be happening at Monday Night Brewing from 7 pm-11 pm.

The weekend

• The city of Fairburn will host its Juneteenth concert and celebration tomorrow, June 20th, from 6:00 to 9:00 p.m.

• The city of Lawrenceville will host its own Juneteenth concert and celebration on Saturday, June 21st, from 12 -3 pm.

• New Birth Missionary Baptist Church, organizers of the Target boycott, is hosting a Black-owned business market in Lithonia on Saturday from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. and Sunday from 1 p.m. to 6 p.m.

• Liberty International Church Door of Hope Ministries will be hosting a Juneteenth youth panel from 11 am - 2 pm on Saturday, June 21st.

• Newnan will be hosting a Juneteenth parade on Saturday, June 21st, and a Miss Juneteenth Pageant on Sunday, June 22nd.

• Trade & Tango will be hosting a line dancing celebration on Saturday, June 21st, from 5-10 pm at 552 Decatur St. RSVP is required.

• Phoenix Park in Summerhill is hosting its Juneteenth picnic from 3 - 9pm.

Venues:

• The High Museum of Art will be admission-FREE today from 10 am-5 pm. Does not include parking fee.

• The Root House in Marietta will be FREE today from 10 am-4 pm.

• The Academy Theater in Hapeville will host a free Juneteenth celebration from 7:00 to 11:00 p.m.

Food:

• Portrait Coffee will be giving out free coffee while supplies last from 3-5 pm in the West End.

• Superstar chef Marcus Samuelsson’s Marcus Bar & Grill will be hosting a 4-course tasting today. Cost is $65.

• Chattahooche Food Works will be hosting a celebration from 12-2 pm.

• Bien Vegano Market will be hosting a Vegan Market and Juneteenth celebration at 552 Decatur St from 4-8 pm on Sunday, June 22nd.

Have fun!

-KJW

However, today we discuss Josh's latest novel, Goodbye, Sweetberry Park, an Atlanta-inspired story of gentrification and chaos. We explore how the book came to life and how Atlanta has developed into a character within his fiction writing. He also shares that this is the second installment in a planned trilogy of novels and offers a teaser about what the next one will entail.

If you enjoyed this conversation, please visit Josh's website ⁠https://joshrgreen.com/⁠ to purchase the book or find it on ⁠Amazon⁠. This episode is available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify as well.

In this episode of The Breakdown with King Williams, I sit down with Tommy Andres, one-half of the producing duo behind the new Wondery Podcast limited series ⁠We Came To The Forest.⁠ We Came To The Forest explores the ongoing 'Cop City' movement in Atlanta through direct interviews with those involved in the protests, including a never-before-heard interview with Manuel Esteban Paez Terán, also known as ⁠Tortuguita⁠, the protester who a Georgia State Patrol officer killed in January 2023.

In this conversation, we discuss how Tommy learned about Cop City, the controversial Atlanta Police Training Center in Southwest DeKalb County. He also shares insights into the journey of producing the podcast and what he has discovered since starting the series.

Tommy also produced the award-winning ⁠King Slime⁠ podcast with fellow Atlanta-based journalists Christina Lee and George Chidi. The podcast focuses on the Young Thug YSL Trial, which we touch on towards the end.

This podcast is available for Wondery subscribers as well as on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.

-KJW

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Rising Georgia Democrat Jason Esteves is rumored to be running for Governor.

Georgia State Senator Jason Esteves (SD-35) is rumored to be running for the Democratic spot for governor of Georgia in 2026. Esteves, a rising star within the state Democratic Party, could signal that the party is moving on from the dismal 2022 and 2024 outings with a focus on the present.

Esteves could be the very future of the party statewide and nationally, which would be the win both Democratic organizations need. Should Esteves decide to run, he would join an increasingly crowded field of Democrats, including former Atlanta mayor Keshia Lance Bottoms, recently departed DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, and presumed frontrunner for the nomination, Congresswoman Lucy McBath.

The cases for and against Jason Esteves

The case for Jason Esteves

Jason Esteves is (one of) the rising stars of the Democratic Party of Georgia. A future that understands the politics, posturing, and policies that could win. Esteves, a millennial Afro-Latino male with a JD and time spent as a public school teacher, is the type of box-checking that keeps certain political narratives at bay. His stances on abortion, education, immigration, and not being caught in the current era of conservative culture wars are a breath of fresh air for the party.

Over the last twelve years, Esteves has gone from two-time Atlanta School Board to now two-time State Senator. In that time, Esteves has been seen more prominently at state-level events, including numerous stops during the Kamala Harris 2024 presidential campaign. Over the last few legislative sessions, he has become a fixture at the state capitol.

Esteves has been positioning himself on the margins for a while. Should an actual campaign exist, it would be a much smoother step forward than other rumored candidates. Esteves doesn’t come with the baggage of KLB; he doesn’t come with the built-in bias of being a DeKalb County politician like Mike Thurmond, and his current positioning as State Senator is not at the degree of severity of losing a potential national figure like Lucy McBath.

The case against Jason Esteves

Esteves’s biggest flaw is that he is the least known candidate of the four currently presumed Democratic nominees for governor of Georgia. Esteves would also have a more significant challenge in raising his profile among traditional, rank-and-file donors, many of whom have been decimated over the last few years with donations and disappointment. His likely challengers, McBath, Bottoms, and Thurmond, would potentially take up a substantial amount of the local + regional donor pool early, likely having to find a new set of donors to make a dent.

Additionally, Esteves would need to start building his media and candidate profile within Metro Atlanta, the Black Belt, and the more rural parts of Georgia if he wants to have a real shot at winning his party nomination and challenging Republicans in November 2026. Esteves would need to proceed regardless of whether he has the support of the state Democratic Party. 

The state Democratic Party isn’t much help for now.

The Republicans are so far ahead that no matter what Democrat lines up against them, they have the local political infrastructure to make an easy victory. Esteves would have to find a way to galvanize voters with or without a state party infrastructure that still can’t find a new leader and has been seen as mostly MIA when making any stances against the Republicans locally or nationally.

It’s not impossible, but if the state party would get its shit together and start figuring out now its 2026 strategy, one that doesn’t cannibalize itself from within or alienate itself from the left, are crucial steps to returning to viability. In addition to DPG figuring out its new ecosystem internally and externally, an ecosystem it must figure out by the end of this legislative session, not in December.

From my previous newsletter: Are The Georgia Dems Beefing?

5. The GA Dems don’t have the supportive infrastructure or political ecosystems to win.

Georgia Democrats once again will have to figure out how to develop a cohesive non-election cycle-dependent ecosystem. One that’s fully funded and allows for people from non-traditional/insider backgrounds to find a way within the party. Despite raining millions every cycle, most funding is spent on GOTV, media, and events, leaving local orgs dry outside election season.

This is problematic since so much of the Democratic base is volunteer-dependent, with no way to retain people after election cycles, causing a retread of manpower each cycle. The future of the Georgia Democratic Party will have to have a more substantial base of supportive organizations, a consistent flow of funds, and an allowance for those who show aptitude to be retained in the currently non-existent liberal political ecosystem.

If they (DPG) were to rally around an inter-party rising star candidate like Esteves, it would be a step toward becoming the future signal. That signal is that it’s moving on from the lingering gerontocracy and political thinking of the last twenty years or so. Less working 20-30 years before running for office but emerging as an overall less enthusiastic candidate that only brings out steadfast senior voters and little for anyone else. The Democrats must be younger and more forthcoming with candidates who excite the next generation of voters.

Reconsidering Lucy McBath for Governor

Many insiders consider current US Congresswoman Lucy McBath as the forerunner to challenge for Governor. McBath is the most well-financed, resourced, known, and respected candidate among the potential Democratic nominees for governor.

Still, it may not be the best use of McBath or her current positioning or political capital. McBath has been rumored since 2024, but some points could dissuade her. If Esteves is serious, his biggest challenger is McBath. If the Democratic Party of Georgia is serious, they would avoid a bump between one of their current figureheads and a rising star.

First, McBath, since her improbable run in 2018, has emerged as a national political figure with a long-term, semi-safe congresswoman in one of the more improbable districts. In two terms, McBath has made her northern metro Atlanta suburban district of Cobb-Gwinnett a semi-safe Democratic seat, one of the few for the party in Georgia. As a result of partisan gerrymandering by Republicans, McBath has been relocated into a western district that includes more of Cobb and Fulton.

The western metro Atlanta corridor that McBath currently represents is one of the state's most racially and economically diverse parts, lending to one of the few bright spots within the state democratic party.

Second, that stability comes when Democrats in Georgia need it the most. The Democrats started the 2020s on a high note. Georgia went blue, and Biden won, becoming the first Democrat since Clinton to win in the state. Then, the party finally saw an actual increase in national political representation by winning in 2020, seeing the party go from 5 to 6 US House members in 2020, the most in the modern era (2000-present, post-complete party switch) since 2004.

But they could again be down to just four US House reps operating within a super gerrymandered 10R-4D US House majority in a couple of years without a stern defense of McBath’s seat + a defense of District 2 in southwest Georgia, which has been looking shaky in the last few elections.

This is due to heavy Republican gerrymandering in 2021. The political representation of Georgia in the US House is currently 9 Republican-5 Democrat when it should be 7D-7R based on overall population, registered voters, and turnout.

After nearly a decade between 10R-4D and 9R-5D, 2020, in part by gerrymandering with more conservative districts in northern Georgia and the Savannah corridor, robbing the primarily Democrat and then-majority black districts be diluted in the 2010s gerrymandering.

Despite this, the Dems finally won in the heavily gerrymandered northern metro Atlanta suburbs. By 2022, Republicans got their lick back and did what neo-segregationists do: dilute power.

Third, McBath’s win in the state's most diverse district came at a considerable cost. It makes no sense to flirt with losing that seat without some certainty. Her current district of western metro Atlanta is safe but it comes with changing demographics, one that is seeing a poorer set of voters emerge in the non-city limits and is older. As well as a richer, younger class emerging within the city and I-285 proper, one who will have different needs. 

Fourth, if McBath decides not to seek re-election and run for governor, there’s no firm grip on who the person in the pipeline is to fill that seat, which could lead to long-term instability.

From my previous newsletter: Are The Georgia Dems Beefing?

Who’s on the bench?

Currently, the question of who’s next in line for all the positions is significant. The Democrats face a question of who’s in the leadership pipeline to maintain currently held statewide seats in addition to who’s being groomed for leadership within the party. Unlike their Republican counterparts, the Democrats face turnover after each and every election. And when there is consistency is often held for too long, resulting in a leadership vacuum that’s arguably a generation behind.

Who’s replacing the current US Dem Congress Seats?

The Democrats have another issue: succession. The Georgia Democrats haven’t successfully planned for its successors, developed a leadership pipeline, forged key partnerships, or planted younger people in positions for long-term success like the Republicans have.

The leadership of elected Democrats is old. Except for John Ossoff, 37, a millennial, and Nikema Williams, 46, a younger GenXer, most of the leadership at the county, city, and key statewide positions are from people older than both. The five Democrats in the US Congress are all older than 50 and, in some cases, 70. Georgia’s other US Senator, Warnock, is also in his 50s—similar ages for several Democratic county commissioners and officers.

Having McBath could be a better hedge at maintaining national power and potential swing back in 2026 for the Dems currently at 215D to 220R in the US House. It would behoove Democrats to have some base in the bag as they try to take the House back in 2026, which would be a start, considering the US Senate is likely unwinnable next year. But should she step down as a run for governor, there’s no assurances that her current-day ‘safe’ seat will be held. If there were to be a successor that seat, some millennial, or Gen Z lib should be ready to take over. As well as have a younger cadre of county and city level elected officials ready to move as a more cohesive political unit.

The Big Picture

In 2024, Democrat causals stayed home; younger black men swung slightly right; religious groups went again for Trump; the varying Leftist coalitions stayed away from Biden-Harris primarily over Israel’s role in Gaza, while Latino males reversed two decades of pivoting to the left to move to the right. As well as, those individuals who didn’t want to vote for Trump or the Dems stayed away, in part because culture wars and wedge issues defined the Democrats, not the Republicans. Meanwhile, the malaise of those steadfast voters still haunts the party.

Centering on Esteves and all he represents could be a blueprint for how to win back elections nationally in the face of a looming Trump presidency.

Should the Dems nominee for governor be Jason Esteves, he would be the first male challenger in a decade since the unsuccessful run of Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter, in 2014. In that decade’s run, Georgia politics changed quite a few times. We’ve seen the rise and political fall of Stacey Abrams, the dismantling and public humiliation of the machine that brought her close to the governor’s mansion.

We’ve seen Georgia surprise everyone by producing the first win for a Democrat for President in the state since Bill Clinton’s 1992 run. We’ve seen Georgia elect, then re-elect its first Black US Senator and its first Jewish Senator, who’s seeking reelection himself in 2026.

Jason Esteves could be the guy, but only time will tell

-KJW

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Supreme Court upholds a ban on TikTok.

The Supreme Court has upheld a ban on TikTok, the popular social media app with ties to the Chinese government. TikTok will be removed from the app stores and become operable come Sunday unless the platform sells to an American company or individual*.

The Supreme Court ruling is a blow to the company. The company faces selling or shutting down unless Trump (with even more political power) decides to do something else.

Too Long/Didn’t Read(TL/DR): The TikTok/China ban.

For everyday people, TikTok is the fastest-growing social media platform. In the U.S., roughly half of the population has a TikTok account. TikTok is a popular platform within its parent company, ByteDance, a China-based internet, social media, and entertainment company.

In Short, the US government is forcing Chinese tech firm ByteDance to sell its ownership of the popular social media site TikTok, or it will be banned from operating in the country.

Medium: The ‘ban’ on TikTok is a forced sale, but it would be the US finally exercising a similar hard line on China, which has banned nearly all American social media and entertainment platforms.

The move to control the global internet has been ongoing for a long time. The future of the Internet is built on the digital infrastructure and platforms of either US-affiliated or Chinese-affiliated companies.

Long: Then-President Biden signed a bipartisan bill to re-establish US tech supremacy by banning TikTok. At the heart of the ban is whether TikTok is a global propaganda tool (aka a psyop), a non-combative military operation to change the public opinion of a country’s residents and socio-political leadership. A psyop aimed at undermining the US, its politics, and its citizens. This wouldn’t be the first time a foreign adversary has used some aspect of the internet to attack or undermine the US.

For China’s President Xi Jin Ping, the strong arm can’t bend now. While China doesn’t explicitly own TikTok, its looming influence doesn’t bode well if the US can force a sale.

The US is betting that China will either comply or fold, giving them a rare public ‘L’ on censorship and business compliance. China’s growth as a global superpower over the last 25 years has been as a direct competitor to the US, often with them setting the terms of business.

Should TikTok comply, it would be a win for Trump, US government agencies, and US-based companies that compete against TikTok and other Chinese firms. It also signals a shift that could give Trump and Republicans, as well as global conservatives/libertarians, a significant advantage for the foreseeable future.

The future of the internet: the American or Chinese version

TikTok was the first big success in challenging the cultural, economic, and technological hegemony that has been the globalization of the American internet. The US and its political allies now could face a world where the social media landscape is the first start in a more significant future where the de-centering of the US is happening.

It also sets up a future where China's highly monitored and curated walled garden versus the culturally conservative-aligned ethos of "open/free" access of US platforms- something that’s increasingly become equally closed off in recent years.

The US has minimal economic or cultural impact on the Chinese web, much to the charge of the federal government and both parties. This provides an example of better hedging against US interests as the two country’s advance.

What does TikTok’s ban mean for Democrats and Republicans?

For Republicans, the turnabout by Trump’s 2024 team in utilizing TikTok was one part of his successful win by pivoting towards the social media platforms and influencers of Gen Z. TikTok was crucial in identifying younger Trump supporters, their friends, and those Trump curious. TikTok was the intersection of Gen Z live streamers, podcast hosts, influencers, activists, gamers, religious supporters, celebrities, athletes, entertainers, and other content creators.

Republicans want to * own * the social internet, literally and ideologically.

For Republicans concerned about data mining, surveillance, and espionage, those concerns have been muted mainly by higher-ups and their outside supporters. After a rocky 2010s in attempting to ‘win’ the media and culture, the post-Obama era news and social media strategies were hit or miss until the post-George Floyd recalibration that began in the second half of 2020.

The attempts to flood the zone with culture wars, criticism, content creators, and political narratives have worked under Biden on every other platform; it hasn’t been on TikTok. Alongside a steady feed of misinformation/malinformation/disinformation from influencers, prominent accounts and Trump-supporting media have made the global internet pivot hard to right the pinnacle of decades of efforts.

For Democrats, TikTok's political content has been equally critical and hostile to both parties but more detrimental, as Republican supporters still vote for Republicans regardless. The 2024 electoral margins and shifts show that Democrats are more susceptible to swing voters and disaffected party members/voters. 

The issue is still divisive amongst rank-and-file members. TikTok (alongside Twitter/X) is where AOC reigns as the top political member of ‘the left,’ left of liberals by a wide margin. AOC, alongside other members of ‘the squad,’ such as Rashida Talib and Ilhan Omar (plus her daughter), has been able to articulate a left perspective on politics and national events to more positive success.

Which has led to various left-leaning and outside D/R criticisms to amplify on the platform. TikTok has provided a voice on issues critical of liberals/liberalism * and * conservatism, a sharp contrast to the mainstream, which produces only content critical of Libs/Dems. See: Gaza.

What options are on the table?

There have been rumblings dating back to 2020 for some conservative-backed financing to take over the app. In 2020, a group backing former Trump Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin floated a bid to take over the app. Late last year, Shark Tank star and investor Kevin O’Leary floated a bid, and a recent rumbling of Twitter/X owner Elon Musk buying TikTok.

What if Elon Musk were to buy TikTok?

This claim was initially refuted, but now it may be an option. For Musk, owning TikTok would give him a global audience of 1.5 billion+. Most importantly, he would own the world’s largest real-time news aggregator on Twitter/X, accompanied by the world’s largest short-form video aggregator on TikTok. His coverage area would be in China, one of the most restrictive countries, where he already has business interests.

Elon has used Twitter/X’s algorithms to highlight right-wing content in addition to suppressing liberals/Democrats, eliminating fact-checking, and banning journalists and those critical of him and his companies. Elon’s use of Twitter has been a crucial vehicle for the narrative rebounding of conservatives since 2022 and on-boarding white nationalist content to a global audience. Ownership of TikTok and its much-in-demand algorithm could wield unparalleled levels of media and social narrative building.

Conclusion

Unless things change from the incoming Trump administration, which has signaled that the incoming Trump administration may' save' the app, his stance was reversed during his previous stint. Once he takes office, the logistics of how and when a ‘saving’ of TikTok has not been revealed.

However, considering that the president of TikTok will be at Trump’s inauguration, the situation is promising. But that could signal a more significant pivot of US social media platforms, search engines, corporations, and media pivoting to the hard right. If TikTok is ‘saved’, it’s highly probable that a Chinese company could do the same, giving Trump an enormous geo-political and cultural victory.

The TikTok ban is the first sign of Trump 2.0; it’s also a signal of the future of the US.

-KJW

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Our First Newsletter Community Meet-Up!

In the spirit of service and community, I will host a meetup this MLK weekend with newsletter supporters and the community. This meet-up partners with Atlanta Civic Circle, a civic-journalism-focused news outlet.

This meet-up aims to live in the spirit of MLK’s ‘beloved community’ and develop new connections with people from across our sprawling metro.

The meet-up will be from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. on Monday, January 20th, at Wild Heaven Brewery (1010 White Street SW, Atlanta, GA 303010) in the West End. The West End MARTA Station is the closest to the building, and it requires a connecting bus (68 or 81). It is located on the southwest section of the Atlanta BeltLine. 

The meet-up will include light refreshments, games, and conversation starters—alcohol sold separately.

The event is the start of a new year and more in-person meetings, including more meet-ups, historical tours, and the return of the book club!

I hope to see you next Monday!

-KJW

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A Private Georgia Democratic Letter Goes Viral

Following Kamala Harris's shocking national loss and a relatively underperforming series of statewide races, a private letter to current US Congresswoman and Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Nikema Williams has gone viral. The letter, which several metro Atlanta and rural Georgia Democrats signed, was a direct call for Williams to step down after the disappointing election results. The letter comes as the Georgia Democrats face their second consecutive disappointing election, being nearly swept in all but one race, the US Senate, in 2022.

The Letter

The letter was initially leaked to AJC political journalist Greg Bluestein and local DeKalb-centric outlet Decaturish (Williams’s district includes most of Fulton and most of SW DeKalb). In addition to the letter, a series of text messages from an anonymous source who spoke with Congresswoman Williams were also leaked.

The letter to Williams charges that since taking the position of US Congresswoman in 2021, she has been too preoccupied with her duties in Washington and not as much as the Chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia. The letter highlighted a perceived lack of support for rural and non-metro Atlanta Democrats. Since the election results of two weeks ago, Democrats seem to be in disarray with Georgia’s leadership, initially questioning itself privately and now publicly. Including one of Georgia’s highest-ranking party members, current US Senator Jon Ossoff is rumored to be one of the voices against Williams.

Is Jon Ossoff trying to push out Nikema Williams?

Jon Ossoff is one of Georgia’s two US Democratic Senators. Ossoff came to his seat in a tight race in 2020 against incumbent David Perdue. Ossoff, since that election, has made his bet on doubling down on serving on committees in Washington, getting money for Atlanta infrastructure projects, and being a mainstay in local Democratic events. Ossoff’s win is arguably one of the hallmarks of Williams’s tenure, bringing Georgia a millennial US Senator and fulfilling the equity built up by Ossoff over the three years since his defeat for a US House seat by Karen Handel.

The texts allege current US Senator Jon Ossoff has urged Williams to step down behind the scenes. Ossoff has a very contentious 2026 race against likely former Governor Brian Kemp, which could have similar results to last week’s or 2022’s re-election.

At the same time, Georgia’s other US Senator, Rev. Raphael Warnock, has brushed off the question. Warnock and Ossoff’s joint 2020 race was the winning ticket for both getting elected, while Williams and Warnock have a more extended political history. While US Congressman Hank Johnson, an Ossoff supporter, has made his line in the sand supporting him. Ossoff, the DNC, and maybe the US can’t afford a national Republican hold on the US Senate. A 60+ filibuster-proof majority in 2026 could lead to a vengeful second-term Trump administration that can do gnarly things to Democrats and detractors. Ossoff needs to retain that seat.

The Heat Is On Williams

Some Democratic leaders have been vocal about their displeasure with Williams’s leadership, including Fayette County Democratic Chair Joe Clark, who was quoted in a recent WSB story. Williams was first elected Democratic Party Chair in 2019, won a special election for John Lewis’s seat in 2020, then started serving double duty in 2021, and was re-elected in 2023.

The Young Democrats of Georgia stated on Instagram that they were calling for Williams to step down. Georgia Federation of Democratic Women is also in support of Williams stepping down. Williams received support from former state Rep Erick Allen, the current Cobb Democratic Party Chair. As well as newly minted House Minority Leader Carolyn Hughley coming out in support of Williams. Meanwhile, fellow US Democratic Congressman David Scott has tipped his hand to support a regime change. Concurrently, US Senator and long-time Williams collaborator Rev. Raphael Warnock distanced himself from the issue.

No one is currently named as the leaker. However, the leak posits that what was once a lingering rumor behind closed doors is now public. And it could not come at a worse time for the Georgia Democrats.

2. The Cases For and Against Nikema Williams

Whether Williams stays or a new leader is chosen, the next 18 months will focus on rebuilding a cohesive statewide political ecosystem. This is followed by another 6-month cycle of elections that could lead to another Democratic burnout unless something new happens.

Is Removing Nikema Williams the right idea?

Yes and no. Yes, having an immediate scapegoat in Williams for this year's lack of success is a reactionary move. But it may not be entirely wrong. Williams’s internal party detractors can blame her for all of the party's problems and then wipe the slate clean.

No, because Williams, despite her intra-party beef, is a very popular politician, she has national connections, and there is no clear successor. Since becoming party chair in 2019, Williams’s tenure has seen Georgia go from being a lost cause to a swing state. Williams can still point to 2020 as one of the few bright spots for Democrats in the Deep South, which is still going more red than blue overall.

While supporters of Williams look to 2020’s wins and a ~70,000-vote increase in 2024 for the Democratic presidential nominee compared to 2020, the opposition can look to Trump's roughly ~150,000-vote increase, translating to a smooth 120,000-vote victory.

Georgia was also unique in that its swing to the right was only two points compared to much larger swings in states nationwide. Supporters and detractors could look to that swing as something that could’ve been reached had the Dems just pulled out a slightly better turnout. The Dems also picked up two House seats, giving them 80 out of 180 overall. It's better than the 75 they were at just four years ago. Meanwhile, their future stars, such as Michelle Au, Sam Park, and Nabilah Islam-Parkes, won re-election.

3. Was 2014-18 A Mirage?

The optimism and growth of the Georgia Democratic Party from 2014-18 may have been a mirage. Stacey Abrams's 2018 haze continues to affect the national reputation of the state’s party. Abrams is still beloved by everyday people and steadfast Democratic voters. However, the future will require a post-Abrams vision that learns from her successes and failures.

Democrats in Georgia briefly developed an emerging political ecosystem boosted partly by the role of the two Stacey Abrams-created political non-profits, Fair Fight and the New Georgia Project. But now, in 2024, both organizations may be on their last legs, and nothing has been able to replace it. The talent those organizations attracted mostly floated in the political ether or left politics altogether.

In the future, the Georgia Democrats must find a better way to win and understand how to maintain enthusiasm after the election. Since 2018, they have been shut out in two consecutive statewide elections and have again lost the presidency. Putting this all on Nikema Williams may be unfair, but it’s the most available option. Whether or not Williams stays or steps down as chair, many issues with the Democratic Party of Georgia (DPG) will require major overhauls.

4. The Democratic Party isn’t just Atlanta

The letter sent to Congresswoman Williams reflected another reality that the Democrats have forgotten since 2018’s surprisingly close first gubernatorial run from Stacey Abrams—rural Georgia is not just flyover country, and it could be as big or bigger for Democrats as it has been for Republicans.

2018 was the closest Georgia has been to a Democrat for governor in nearly twenty years. In the years leading up to that race, years of collective efforts in building relationships with local groups, voter registration, outreach events, and data collection worked. Rural Georgia, the Black Belt, and some of Georgia’s most prominent cities came out for Abrams, who would ultimately be short by ~55,000 votes.

However, since the 2018 election, these locales have mostly been disinvested, resulting in only late-quarter voter engagement rallies and text donations. The focus has been on getting a bigger turnout in metro Atlanta. The strategy worked in 2020/21 for the top of the ticket, leaving the bottom candidates disadvantaged.

Rural Democrats need a lot. That includes campaign funding, a more consistent voter engagement strategy, retention strategies, recruitment, and a hyper-local awareness strategy, alongside partnerships with Democrat-leaning 501 (c)(3) and (c)(4) nonprofits like the Republicans. It also includes a coherent media strategy with a supporting media ecosystem for those inside and outside Atlanta.

Is Metro Atlanta tapped out?

The Democrats have been overreliant on metro Atlanta in the last three successive cycles—2020, 2022, and 2024—with only the upper-level, national trifecta (Biden-Ossoff-Warnock) winning big in 2020/21. That win was partly because of a once-in-a-generation set of circumstances and metro Atlanta acting as its defense against Trumpism, not Georgia Republicans.

The strategy makes sense. Metro Atlanta and Georgia’s most populous cities are majority Democratic. But that hasn’t been enough to circumvent the Republicans' small-town, rural engagement strategy. Republicans have been able to counter this large voting bloc of Democrats in metro Atlanta and the Black Belt with a continual overperformance of small towns and rural Georgia continuing to come out every election. This resulted in a statewide sweep for Republicans in 2018, 2022, and now 2024, with a likely chance of repeating in 2026.

If metro Atlanta seems tapped out, it's likely because many organizations that pushed Biden to win, like the New Georgia Project, are a shell of their former selves just four years later. Most key staff have left, taking the data, analysis, employees, and, most importantly, partnerships. Additionally, the activists who helped push Abrams in 2018 and Biden in 2020 are mostly not in Atlanta, not working in politics or not working with the Democrats.

5. The GA Dems don’t have the supportive infrastructure or political ecosystems to win.

Georgia Democrats once again will have to figure out how to develop a cohesive non-election cycle-dependent ecosystem. One that’s fully funded and allows for people from non-traditional/insider backgrounds to find a way within the party. Despite raining millions every cycle, most funding is spent on GOTV, media, and events, leaving local orgs dry outside election season.

This is problematic since so much of the Democratic base is volunteer-dependent, with no way to retain people after election cycles, causing a retread of manpower each cycle. The future of the Georgia Democratic Party will have to have a more substantial base of supportive organizations, a consistent flow of funds, and an allowance for those who show aptitude to be retained in the currently non-existent liberal political ecosystem.

Who’s on the bench?

Currently, the question of who’s next in line for all the positions is significant. The Democrats face a question of who’s in the leadership pipeline to maintain currently held statewide seats in addition to who’s being groomed for leadership within the party. Unlike their Republican counterparts, the Democrats face turnover after each and every election. And when there is consistency is often held for too long, resulting in a leadership vacuum that’s arguably a generation behind.

Who’s replacing the current US Dem Congress Seats?

The Democrats have another issue: succession. The Georgia Democrats haven’t successfully planned for its successors, developed a leadership pipeline, forged key partnerships, or planted younger people in positions for long-term success like the Republicans have.

The leadership of elected Democrats is old. Except for John Ossoff, 37, a millennial, and Nikema Williams, 46, a younger GenXer, most of the leadership at the county, city, and key statewide positions are from people older than both. The five Democrats in the US Congress are all older than 50 and, in some cases, 70. Georgia’s other US Senator, Warnock, is also in his 50s—similar ages for several Democratic county commissioners and officers.

6. The Georgia Dems Clock Starts Now

The Democrats are on the clock for 2026 and 2028. In 2026, The Democrats will try to figure out how to retain their US Senate seat for another six years, with Jon Ossoff facing a likely challenger in outgoing governor Brian Kemp.

At the same time, they try to figure out a way to win at least half of the statewide seats, which are all Republican. The most important being the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. In addition to the District 3 and 5 Public Service Commissioner races and two state Supreme Court races that year.

A Must Win 2026 and 2028

The Democrats have to win not one but two elections, 2026 and 2028, although for different reasons. 2026 is focused on retaining its first US Senate seat with Jon Ossoff and mounting some real challenges to the upper chambers of state politics. 2028 is a must-win for retaining Raphael Warnock’s seat and maybe swinging Georgia back blue against a likely mighty national Republican Party.

The Democrats need a strategy for escaping the House and Senate minority, and a Democrat should lead at least one.

To have a fighting chance in redistricting in 2030, the Democrats must maintain their current 80 House seats and flip at least ten more by 2028. They would also need to keep their 23 state Senate seats and find at least five more to even the odds in representation.

Ossoff vs Kemp for US Senate

One of the least-kept secrets has been the 2026 race for the US Senate between outgoing governor Brian Kemp and incumbent Jon Ossoff. Kemp is well-liked, has high approval ratings, several key partnerships with national conservative organizations, a national traditional media, and an international digital ecosystem waiting for his election against Ossoff in 2026. He likely has a heavy-handed Republican majority in the House, Senate, Supreme Court, and FCC, giving him advantages no one else will have in 2026. Ossoff will be on his backfoot the entire time and will likely require a large amount of resources that he will have to have with or without the party’s help.

Wh'o’s Running Against Kelly Loeffler for Governor?

Former US Senator Kelly Loeffler (a Kemp appointee) is likely the next candidate for the Governor of Georgia. While the rumors of Congresswoman Lucy McBath linger, the possibility of outgoing DeKalb CEO Mike Thurmond has also floated in some circles. With that, the conversation also lingers on whether or not a third attempt from Stacey Abrams could be ruled out if either two don’t decide to run and no viable candidate emerges. If Loeffler is the candidate in 2026, do the Dems have anyone who could win?

7. Lucy McBath for Governor?

Lucy McBath is an interesting choice. In 2026, McBath may be the Democrats' best shot at winning anything. Ossoff faces an uphill climb against Kemp, while the entire executive branch of the state, two Public Service Commissioners, and two Supreme Court seats are all heavily GOP-favored.

McBath’s rise from family tragedy has been one of Georgia's most underrated political stories over the last decade. Motivated by the murder of her son, Jordan, in 2012 and the 2018 Stoneman Douglas High School Shooting, McBath pulled off the upset of 2018. Her upset victory over establishment politician against incumbent Republican Karen Handel, the same one who beat Jon Ossoff a year prior. McBath’s win surprised everyone on both sides of the aisle. McBath won GA-06, a district mainly representing Gwinnett County, which was expected to maintain Republican control for some time.

Even the 2020 attempts by state Republicans to redraw her district from a center-leaning district to one more conservative by adding in Cherokee and Forsyth County wasn’t enough to stop her. That redistricting allowed the area to support 2020’s GA-07 loser Rich McCormick, forcing a 2022 election that would remove either McBath or fellow north metro Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux. McBath won comfortably in that head-to-head matchup with Bourdeaux. McBath won again On November 5th of this year.

Should McBath decide to run for Governor in 2026, who will take her place in GA-7? The most immediate call is Nabilah Islam-Parkes. Islam-Parkes, a Gwinnett State Senator, recently won re-election and could be seen as the archetype of what the party needs for its succession plans.

If successful, the move would solve a couple of issues: age, diversity, and developing a long-term leadership pipeline and bench. A McBath 2026 vote will need every vote. But do the Dems have what it takes to make the state competitive?

8. Conclusion

The Democratic Party of Georgia has a lot to do in a short amount of time. Regardless of whether Congresswoman Williams stays, a new direction is needed. The Republicans/Conservatives have been in power since 2003; if nothing changes, that could be another 20 years as well. Over the last decade, Georgia has shown flashes of what’s possible, but can they finally get over the hill?

2020 was a huge victory, but it was four years ago. If Georgia Republicans succeed in 2026, the year will likely be a blip rather than a sign of change. And if that continues, what does it mean to be a party of perpetual losers? The Democrats are on the clock, and if nothing meaningful happens, we could tell the same story two years from now.

The Georgia Dems must get it in high gear. 2026 starts now.

-KJW

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He critiques the term "Christian nationalism," arguing it emerged post-2016 and oversimplifies conservative activism. Rolsky also discusses the complexities of evangelicalism and its political leanings, noting the influence of media and marketing. He emphasizes the need for robust academic analysis and critical thinking in understanding contemporary political dynamics.

This episode can be heard here on Substack, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

This interview references two books worth reading in addition to Dr. Rolsky’s book: Nicole Hemmer’s “Messengers of The Right,” a History of conservative media in America, and Kevin Kruse’s “One Nation Under God: How Corporate America Invented Christian America” a look at how corporate conservatives infiltrated Christian politics.

Nicole Hemmer has previously appeared on the podcast, and you can listen to her interview below:

Spotify:

Apple Podcasts:

If you enjoy this conversation, please let me know, write a review, and share it with a friend!

-KJW

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• Please note that GA totals are not final but are based on the Secretary of State’s data set with additional context via Georgia Votes,

• National totals are still being compiled. However, this article refers to data from the New York Times, AJC, NPR, and CBS via local election hubs.

• There will be more breakdowns of the election later today.

Donald Trump has won Georgia.

Georgia is once again Trump Country. The former president once again won in Georgia after winning in 2016 before losing by less than 12,000 votes in 2020. Trump will pull just above his 2020 total. Despite the enthusiasm, the Peach State turned red again after a blue mirage in 2020.

Republicans also win big statewide.

For the Republicans, this comes as a bonus as the statewide totals show them comfortably retaining their gerrymandered leads in the state House and Senate.

All Three Georgia Amendments Pass

Another win for state Republicans comes from all three statewide amendments' voter approval.

Property and Homestead Exemptions

If counties want to opt out of the property tax exemption, they must do so as soon as January 1st, 2025, but no later than March 1st, 2025. The new exemptions, in combination with Governor Kemp’s continued spending of the state budget surplus, including a proposed refund of over 1 billion dollars to some Georgia residents.

Also, reducing the personal income tax to 4.99% will further deteriorate the operating budget of future local and statewide governments. The move also sets up a scenario that could lead to higher secondary taxes or increases in taxes within other parts of local municipal budgets.

New Tax Court

The voters also approved the creation of a new tax court, which would see the governor directly select appointees to judgeships and not via an open election. Kemp is following in the footsteps of his predecessor and current unqualified State Chancellor, Sonny Perdue, by continually stacking state courts with hand-selected picks. This new tax court would handle all personal and business tax matters.

2. The other Georgia 2024 races

Fani Willis wins re-election.

Fulton County prosecutor Fani Willis won re-election. Willis faced a far-right candidate who did better than expected. Willis will now have to face a public reputation that’s taken a bit of a setback after the long-gestating YSL trial winding down over the last few weeks. As well as her handling of the case against Donald Trump being taken from her purview and the attempts at professional embarrassment that came from it.

Willis was seen as the prosecutor with the best case against Trump for his attempt at stealing the 2020 election. Now that he has won the 2024 election, Trump could be in revenge mode once he takes office in January 2025, when prosecutors like Willis could be caught in the crosshairs.

Georgia US House Races

In the US House races, there were little surprises. HD1 will see incumbent Earl L. “Buddy” Carter (R) win re-election. US HD2 will see Sanford Bishop hold on to his seat in a tight election against A. Wayne Johnson (R). Brian Jack (R) wins HD3. Hank Johnson (D) retains HD4. Nikema Williams (D) retains HD5. Lucy McBath (D) retains HD6. Rich McCormick (R) retains HD7. Austin Scott (R) retains HD8. Andrew Clyde (R) retains HD9. Mike Collins (R) retains HD10. Barry Loudermilk (R) retains HD11. Rick Allen (R) retains HD12. David Scott (D) retains HD13. Majorie Taylor Greene (R) retains HD14.

State House Races

Like the State Senate, the State House races were not close, with some exceptions. In HD37, incumbent Mary Frances Williams (D) held off challenger Shea Taylor (R) by roughly 3,000 votes. In HD48, incumbent Scott Hilton (R) retained his seat by ~3,300 votes. Rising star of the state Democratic Party Michelle Au (D) held on to her HD50 seat against challenger Narender Reddy. Another vocal state dem, Esther Panitch (D) HD51, held on to her seat with just over 3,000 votes against challenger Derek Keith Gettman (R).

Republican Debrah Silcox retains her HD53 seat by just under 1,500 votes against challenger Susie Greenberg. Former Democrat turned Republican Mesha Mainor loses her seat HD56 to newcomer Bryce Berry (D) in a blowout. In HD 81, Noelle Kahaian (R) picks up a seat for the GOP against Mishael White (D). While incumbent Pattie Marie Stinson (D) HD150 holds her seat against challenger Cary Moore.

Too Close To Call Races

In the closest race of the night, incumbent Mack Johnson (D) is currently retaining his HD128 seat by just 47 votes (as of the time of this publication) against challenger Tracy Wheeler (R).

Incumbent Farooq Mughal (D) lost his seat against challenger Sandy Donatucci by (at the time of publication) 87 votes. In another tight race, HD108, incumbent Jasmine Clark (D) will retain her seat against challenger Elvia Davila (R) by just over 2,200 votes. In HD145, Democrat Tangie Herring leads challenger Noah Redding Harbuck (R) by 251 votes.

2. Donald Trump Is President, Again

The 45th President is now the 47th President.

Based on current totals, Donald Trump will once again be the president of the United States. Trump will likely win every swing state, Alaska, Maine, the entire South, and most of the Midwest. Despite having one of the most disastrous single terms and one of the worst campaigns of all time, Trump's comeback didn’t matter. Voters have a short memory. The culture wars and the Biden administration's real support of wars in Ukraine and Israel worked to have many voters sour on the Democrats.

Trump’s Comeback Is Unprecedented

Outside of Trump, only four former presidents have sought re-election. Trump becomes only the second president after Grover Cleveland to win the presidency after losing previously. Trump also joins Cleveland as the only two presidents to occupy as a major party nominee in three consecutive elections. Trump is also the first president since the passage of the 22nd Amendment to run for president to seek a non-consecutive term.

White Voters Are Trump Voters, And So Are Some Minorities Too

Based on exit polling in Georgia and nationally, white voters again backed Trump. Trump’s best performance in three attempts will now see white voters, regardless of income, education, and age, shift further to the right. Trump’s performance amongst non-white voters, including many Latinos, was his best in three attempts. Trump also gained with Asian and Arab Americans, who may have tipped Michigan to Trump.

Whether or not Trump gained with black voters remains to be seen. Exit polling shows a similar level of support in 2024 as in 2020. What hasn’t been further studied are black voters of heavy religious convictions who stayed at home over culture war issues such as transgender issues and abortion.

The US Will Be Regressing

Expect an America that regresses to levels unseen in US history. The last time the US regressed this fast on a policy and cultural level was at the end of Reconstruction, which ended abruptly in 1877. Reconstruction ended 12 years of social, racial, and economic progress, sending the US into 89 years of domestic apartheid known as Jim Crow.

Trump has promised mass deportations, tariffs, and attacking the media, all hallmarks of authoritarianism. Project 2025 is the most well-known plan backed by some of Trump’s previous staff and large conservative backers.

Everything Is On The Table

Everything. Project 2025. Mass Deportations. Abortion Bans. Everything is on the table. Make America Great Again has won again. There is no idea what happens next.

God Help Us All.

-KJW

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Georgia Nears 4 Million On Last Day Of Early Voting

Friday marked the end of early voting in Georgia, leaving this Tuesday, November 5th, as the only remaining day to vote in the 2024 Presidential Election. Both parties feel optimistic heading into Tuesday, as Republicans have shown day-to-day consistency and overperformance. At the same time, the Democrats have begun to close the gap in a late second—and third-week surge. This race is far from over, and both parties aren’t letting up in their efforts.

The Numbers: Early Voting

The total turnout is now 4,014,075 people, representing 55.4% of all eligible voters. 3.7 million people have voted in person, while ~250,000 have voted absentee. Compared to the 2020 election, 2024’s early voting totals are now running slightly ahead at roughly +2% of the same level of turnout—3.93 million people in 2020 versus 4.0 million in 2024.

Absentee Ballots

While absentee ballots were down in 2024 compared to 2020, this is in part due to changes to voting, including massive changes due to the Republican-led SB202 in 2021. This has resulted in limited access to absentee voting, which has seen voting move more in person instead.

Roughly ~92,000 absentee ballots have yet to be turned in, including an estimated ~3,000 people in Cobb who have had issues receiving their ballots and have had an emergency second set issued.

If an absentee ballot was requested and accepted, but the ballot has not yet been received, please contact both your county’s election office and the Secretary of State’s office.

You may have to go in-person to your local voting precinct to vote.

Absentee ballots can be dropped off tomorrow and Monday but you must check your county’s board of elections to figure out time and location.

All absentee ballots must be turned in to a precinct by the close of the voting period on Tuesday to be counted.

2. The Big Story Of Early Voting Is…

The story of early voting remains the same: smaller, more rural, and likely conservative/Republican-supporting districts overperformed during early voting, while larger, more urban, and likely Democrat-supporting districts are still slightly underperforming. But those Democrat-supporting districts have picked up over the last two weeks, starting with October 24th’s Obama-Harris-Springsteen rally in Clarkston.

Since that rally, turnout amongst Democratic strongholds DeKalb, Clayton, and Fulton counties—the counties that tipped Biden in 2020—and newer blueland territories in metro Atlanta, Cobb, Rockdale, Newton, Henry, and Gwinnett have all seen substantial pick-ups in the last days of early voting.

The second story of the early voting period is women showing up.

The second story about early voting is about women showing up…everywhere. Women have outnumbered men by double digits since the first day of early voting and have not stopped. Whether it is a liberal, centrist, or conservative county, the women have dominated the early voting period. Women currently account for about -56% of the total turnout, which could expand in turnout on Tuesday.

If the trends happening during the early voting period are any indication, women will be the decision-makers in the 2024 election in Georgia and nationally. For parties, this could be a much-needed delight or dread.

For the Democrats, this could be a much-needed counter-punch to the GOP’s early voting success. The question is whether these women are over-indexing to vote for Harris or if they are more motivated women to vote for Trump or a third-party candidate.

For Republicans, this could be a concern as women could be motivated by the party’s statewide 6-week abortion ban as well as national murmurings of the potential moves against abortion, IVF, and contraceptives. Republicans have about 48 hours to figure out a way to reach out to their base of female voters one last time before Tuesday, but the messaging has been nonexistent up until this point. It's also an opportunity to energize steadfast conservatives and men who have tilted toward the GOP over the last 4-8 years.

3. Did the Republicans peak during early voting?

The typically Republican-supporting counties showed up big during the early voting period. However, the GOP may have reached its ceiling as some counties will reach nearly 100% of registered voters by the end of Tuesday.

Many counties overperformed in rural Georgia have substantially smaller and/or declining populations, which could leave Republicans scrambling for additional turnout on Tuesday.

Of the five largest counties by overall voting percentage, Towns (7K), Oconee (21K), Dawson (16K), Forsyth (109K), and Rabun (8.5K), the actual total number of voters (~155K) is less than half of the entire early totals of DeKalb, Gwinnett, Fulton, or Cobb. When adjusting for a similar split in 2024 compared to 2020, those counties have fewer voters than Trump received in actual voters in Cobb (165K) in 2020. This is combined with another trend: rural Georgia’s population is declining.

Via the Saporta Report: Rural Georgia emptying; state power liable to shift north - 8/17/2021

There are about a million more Georgians now than there were 10 years ago. Or, according to key Census figures published Wednesday, a population of 10,711,908 now versus 9,687,653 folks in 2010.

But growth of more than 10 percent still wasn’t enough to justify a new member of the U.S. House of Representatives for Georgia. So there will still be 14 representatives, now representing a population that’s much more likely to live above Interstate 20 than just a decade ago.

And that’s the conundrum that will face the GOP-controlled state legislature this year as it redraws political boundaries: every Georgia House, Senate and congressional district has to have the same number of adults.

But it would take Georgia’s 85 least-populous counties just to add up to the whopping 1.07 million people now living in Fulton County alone.

Indeed, 67 of Georgia’s 159 counties lost population between 2010 and 2020. For some counties, like Candler, the drop is less than a percent, almost a rounding error: 10,998 in 2010 and 10,981 now.

When using the 2020 turnout as the proxy and adding the top 5 Republican-supporting counties in the state by actual residential population—Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Paulding, and Columbia had about the same total of active voters, ~525K, as Fulton County, ~523K. A county fwiw that went ~73% for the Dems in 2020, translating to 380K votes. And without (declining) but relevant support for the GOP within the five major counties, the GOP can’t win Georgia.

This sets up a numbers game that the GOP doesn’t want to play—

1. There are more likely Democrats or Democrat-supporting voters than Republicans remaining; whether they vote or vote for Harris is still TBD.

2. There are much larger Dem-supporting cities and counties that haven’t reached even plus-50% or greater, which could cause problems. Especially if that means DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb, Clayton, and Gwinnett all get over 70% or better or even 80% or better in overall turnout. Assuming the vote splits are similar to 2020. This could be a long night for the GOP, especially if DeKalb and Fulton get over that threshold.

3. Should the Democrats finally pick up over 70% or better in their traditional supporting cities/counties outside the metro, such as Savannah, Columbus, Augusta, Athens, and Macon, this could be all the difference in Georgia going blue again, assuming a similar 2020 D/R split.

This means the GOP in Georgia will need to get a turnout of upwards of 80% or better in the counties already voting in record numbers. They will need these counties to comfort them in their presumed lead or hedge against likely growth in metro Atlanta and the non-metro cities. This assumes the Dems will pull numbers closer to 80% or better in total turnout in metro Atlanta and around 75% or better in Augusta, Athens, Macon, Columbus, Savannah, and the Black Belt on Tuesday.

The Republicans hope Tuesday is lighter than usual for the Democrats. In addition to a hopeful push of enough upset, Democrats (especially black voters) decide to split the ticket or not vote for Harris. There is an indication that the larger youth vote, especially among young men 18-29, could be beneficial, especially in metro Atlanta. This demographic could be a stealthy vote as more young men are becoming more conservative and more likely to engage with conservative media, creators, personalities, and political content.

4. A New Turnout Record Could Be Set

There are some indications that Tuesday’s turnout could break the state’s all-time turnout record. In 2020, ~5 million people voted. There’s a good possibility that the number will be as high or better. Both parties believe they can exceed their 2020 totals and may be right.

Turnout in 2020 saw roughly ~67.0% of all registered voters (5m out of 7.4m) vote. This led to Georgia ranking 10th nationally in total ballots cast in 2020, 10th in eligible voters, and 27th (including DC) in overall percentage. Both Trump and Biden finished with just under 2.5 million votes each, translating to nearly 1 in 3 of all registered voters casting a ballot for either a Democrat or a Republican. The real question is whether one or both candidates reach 3 million, again settling the all-time record.

First-time voters will factor into this election, as over 500,000 people who voted this year didn’t vote in 2020. However, the turnout for both parties will likely need to exceed 500,000+ voters each on election day. This assumes the split is again similar to the 2020 split of 50/50 for president, with around ~2 million early votes going to Trump and Harris. Based on the 2024 turnout so far, the current split is projected to be more favorable for Trump, putting more pressure on Harris to deliver big on Tuesday.

If Republicans' early voter turnout is a concern for Democrats, potentially somewhere between 500,000 and 1 million voters could be needed. This could be a required once-in-a-generation performance for bigger counties like DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Fulton, which are all running between 75-100,000 below their 2020 turnouts.

This could be another Kemp vs. Abrams II scenario. Republicans are doing well in the small towns and rural parts of the state, providing a comfortable counter to the Democrats, who need metro Atlanta + the black belt to win.

5. The Bigger Picture

For Republicans

This is cautious optimism—this is Dua Lipa’s radical optimism energy. Optimism despite the danger and warning signs.

Suppose this was any other candidate in any other election, and at any other time, it would be over. Despite the polls going in all types of directions, the summer Kamala surge, and Trump’s recent in-person performances, the GOP can once again count Georgia as Trump Country.

The GOP should be feeling good about their chances. Early data shows the party’s core of older, male, and rural county base voters are showing up in record numbers, giving them renewed optimism with the added benefit of SB202 tipping the scales in favor of Republican-supporting counties.

But if this election plays similarly to the 2022 midterms and the Georgia Gubernatorial race, in which the most ardent voters went during the early voting, Tuesday could be a slow day for both parties. In that election, the Republican candidate, incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, saw a roughly 20% surge in overall turnout at 2.1 million voters. In contrast, the Democratic challenger, Stacy Abrams, saw about the same turnout as in 2018 at ~1.8 million voters. Republicans can feel good about their future in 2026, too.

For Democrats

The Democrats, despite the enthusiasm of their core base, could be in trouble. It’s another case of the Everything is Fine GIF or another case of The Simpsons DNC-inspired meme of ‘We Hate Ourselves’—or not. Crisis averted.

Currently, every major Democrat-supporting county is still voting below its 2020 levels. This is partly due to 2021’s SB202, four years of culture wars, and a continuing post-Obama era decline in overall party enthusiasm. If this ends as it did in 2016, expect the Simpsons meme of DNC ‘We Hate Ourselves’ to once again be the topic of conversation locally and nationally.

Conclusion

For both parties, Georgia will be a potential backup state to look for nationally if things get interesting. Early polling and early voting totals show a tight race between both national candidates across several battleground states, including Georgia, without much room for error.

It all comes down to Tuesday, and every vote counts. Make sure you vote!

-KJW

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