Cao Fei, RMB City: A Second Life City Planning, 2007

“I have learned that big top-down institutions like NGO’s and government agencies tend to think of people as problems to solve. We here in our plush office or state capital will solve you poor people. But the mindset of the bottom up – the very people on the ground with all real incentive to solve problems in their communities – think of people as assets to be unleashed.”

– Dina Sherif, Executive Director, The MIT Kuo Sharper Center for Prosperity and Entrepreneurship, in an interview with me in 2013

“When the data and the anecdotes disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. It’s usually not that the data is being miscollected. It’s usually that you’re not measuring the right thing.”

– Jeff Bezos, Lex Fridman podcast, December 14, 2023

“The cognitive orientations and skills of East Asians and people of European cultures are sufficiently different that it seems highly likely that they would complement and enrich one another in any given setting. We would expect that for most problems one would be better off having a mix of people from different cultures than having people who are from all one culture.”

— Richard Nisbett, The Geography of Thought (2003)

“When I venture down to the seafront, a hop and a skip from my home, I disappear into a moving portrait of this superbly colorful country. There are no social walls, no economic barriers to entry, no sectarian divides, no dress codes. The tiniest of Lebanons, and perhaps the most faithful reflection of the larger one. As I listen to chatter that fast-fades with my footsteps, I often find myself wondering, what do these good people want?

- Amal Ghandour, Senior Strategy Adviser Ruwwad, a regional community development initiative spanning Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon; Author, the blog “This Arab Life” May 9, 2026

* * * * * *

I returned to China two weeks ago, as a follow-on to my trip in November. I summarized my takeaways then in Parallel Universes: My Notes on China Beyond the Headlines, and much I saw and heard this time was consistent.

This time, like last November, I met senior executives “top down.” This included the C-suites of eCommerce, fin tech, drone and social media enterprises. I saw over a dozen early-stage companies in AI and robotics less in the Instagram “wow” videos of jumping androids but more solving challenges in agriculture, including pig farming, and manufacturing. I saw also traditional, large enterprises in health products and services – all rapidly deploying AI and robotics throughout their operations.

This time, like last November, there was unease about a struggling economy, rapid shifts in technology, and overall uncertainty more broadly. There remained a conviction that China could figure it out – at least “muddle through” – and that its greatest strength was its historic perseverance. America, strikingly, did not come up often unasked, in part because of political sensitives but mostly because the greatest challenges and opportunities remain at home.

At the same time, for all the tension and rhetoric and at least for now, a broader group worries and want something better between us. Even as China steers a path that allows it greater independence and rapidly lessening reliance on any one for anything outside its borders, every meeting I had at any level ended with a shrug and “Well, let’s see what happens in May in the Xi Trump meeting.”

We remain massive trading partners, many parents remain interested in American education for their kids, many major Chinese tech and traditional companies would love greater and creative win-win access to American markets. There was a lot of buzz there, as reported here, how the beloved social media app Xiaohongshu or RedNote could enter our market.

This time, I particularly focused on meeting people Dina called above “the bottom up.” Through translators and translation apps I moved away from the C-Suite. I spoke with DiDi drivers, workers at restaurants and tourism including people whose job was to physically carry tired people up mountain paths. I spoke with health care workers, large retailers, book store owners, flea market vendors and small shop keepers. I spoke with their Bong Bong men responsible for delivering products at all hours. I spoke with artists and writers.

What they said was strikingly similar. And what they said is strikingly familiar to Americans here at home wrestling similar questions.

“What kind of world should my kids and I be preparing for?”

One of the most surprising and surprisingly popular films in China right now is Dear You: Love Letters to Grandma, not yet available in America. The film revolves around an 88-year-old grandmother who spent decades waiting for her husband, who left for Thailand in the 1940s. Her grandson later travels to Thailand and uncovers a massive, beautiful secret: the husband died decades prior, and the letters and money she received were actually penned by another woman who quietly kept his promise alive for 18 years.

Audiences and critics on social platforms like Douban (where the film scored a rare 9.1 rating) point to several key reasons why this story struck such a deep chord. As a friend who has seen it twice agreed, the film felt like an antidote to “digital fatigue” in a modern world dominated by instant messaging, fast-paced short videos, and fleeting digital connections. “It meets a hunger for sincerity and realism from the big megahits. The actors are locals and help in a story-telling that makes us think about our cultural roots, something beyond AI.”

A hunger for sincerity and realism. Something beyond AI.

Many I met were a parent of a teenager or younger. To a person they were both curious and vexed by what they knew, or sensed, was a technology revolution in their midst. They all used AI regularly – including the American LLM’s – and were happy to access it. They love the seeming every increasing convenience that AI driven capabilities brought to their lives. Very few have been to a grocery store since covid as high-quality produce arrives reliably and cheaply. It is easy to send a package anywhere, overnight, for what in America would seem like pennies.

But the most common question I would then hear was: “But I have no idea what kind of future to prepare my kids for; what kind of life I hope they can have?”

I had lunch with a CEO and her team, and it was a perfect microcosm of this debate. She had long determined that her kids “were going to be normal kids.” In a world, especially hers, where high school students can literally be IN school 15 hours a day, she ends her kids school day at dinner. She encourages sports and arts; she encourages critical thinking.

She has no idea if they will do as well on the famous Gaokao exam – the two-three-day grueling nation-wide test whose score determine what college, if any, a student will attend. “I think they will get into a good school. But ten years from now I’m not even sure what traditional university will mean to their future. AI has changed everything. If I pound math, and computer science, and finance into them - is that even relevant? I figured the more creative they are; the more flexible and resilient the more prepared they will be.”

I looked over to the side, and one executive was clearly uncomfortable. My friend laughed and noted, “She disagrees.”

She looked at me directly in the eye: “In a world of massive uncertainty and competition, my kid can only be prepared if they go to the best university. Nothing is more important than that.”

Hidden behind this conversation is a broader, less discussed fear. According to one great China writer, suicide is the top killer of young people in China between 15 and 35. I spoke with parents from a top small private school, who whispered their concern here and stress levels overall.

Among younger people I met, there was a real hunger to connect with like-minded and like-experienced others in the uncertainty of our times.

As I have written previously, the massively and surprising best seller I Deliver Packages in Beijing – a memoir and reflection based on an equally massively and surprisingly popular blog – explored the life of a “gig worker.” In less than 20 years the author had nearly the same number of jobs – a package delivery courier; logistics night shift handler; bicycle salesman; digital and technical specialist and more. His stories are hard, sometimes funny and his reflections about work and the kind of life people aspire to very powerful.

Most young people I met had read it. Several teared up when I mentioned it. “In his book, I have re-read every page,” said one aspiring content creator. “It is the first time in current writing where I felt seen.”

I met several young people already proud to be “influencers” and have racked up large followings on their daily journeys. But I also met aspiring and serious film makers who want to tell the stories of their communities in order to understand and connect better with them. One created a stunningly beautiful, moving and well-edited short about a tattoo artist in Shanghai. She saved money from her salary in the travel industry to rent a decent camera and film editing software.

She posted it on RedNote – the hyper scaling platform blending elements of Instagram, Pinterest, and TikTok to let users share lifestyle content, product reviews, and travel tips while shopping directly. The comments are personal. They too underscore the desire to “be seen.” A senior executive at RedNote told me: “We see thousands of these regularly. Extremely high quality; wonderful story telling; people relating to their shared experiences. This is not just FOMO. It is a connectivity in shared experience and hopes.”

Seeking community and heritage. Navigating the uncertainty of our times, and new directions of technology. Worrying about children’s futures. Questioning what it means to be human and who and how we spend our times. Hoping my future and my family’s future can be better. A desire to be seen and find connection.

Sounds awfully familiar here at home in America. And in Europe. And everywhere.

For all our discussions about what divides us, for millions – billions – perhaps more connects us.

A friend and superbly successful businessman looked at me with bemusement and patience when I raised this: “Chris, we live in a world of power politics. No one gives a shit about any of this. We live in a world of billions and trillions of dollars and major shifts in trade and security. How would you tell any leader why this matters?”

I paused.

“I’d ask them upon what reasoning does this not matter. If this doesn’t matter, for what and who is power politics serving?”

“Why will you not admit we are already at war with China?”

I reflect on this question periodically, because I have been asked this in some form repeatedly.

At one level, I have a visceral pause when people use “war” as a catch-all for any problem that vexes us. “War on Drugs.” “War on Terrorism.” “War on Inflation.” “War on Cancer.” “War on AIDs.” “War on Poverty.” There are dozens of them throughout recent history.

When people discuss “winning the AI war” I almost know immediately they do not understand how technology works or how profound change is being unleashed right now. The Chapter 11 courts in America have been long filled with tech “winners” surpassed by the next thing.

The desire to rally people and resources to a problem is laudable. The batting average on any of these “wars” is something less than Hall of Fame.

I think, in fact, the analogy, while psychologically appealing, misses new realities and clouds much of the important nuance in which lies the true nature of the challenges.

Real wars have decisive outcomes. Real wars end. Most significant challenges – and opportunities -- we face combine ever changing and evolving circumstances, often with long historic and cultural foundations. They are all forever with us.

There is an understandable temptation to conflate the strategy and execution of China competitively with a steady and deliberate plan to replace America as a global hegemony. Reports on military and nuclear build up, spying, IP theft, fake news and more compound this.

How can it NOT be us versus them.

All of this may be true, and assuredly I hope and pray and assume in any pragmatic sense of real politik we are doing all this and more also. One of my favorite and provocative books a while back is by the Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey The Causes of War. In it, and with a look back at the last two centuries of war, he is persuasive that there is no better way to prevent war than convince someone they can’t win one.

But what if the framing is less us versus them, but us AND them.

What if the most likely scenario is not that one of us wins – “we win, they lose” as President Reagan famously once said – but we are all here. Strong defenses; constantly competing economically and technologically; constantly seeking our own interests. But also open to shared concerns that require and even welcome well proscribed engagement.

I was with a senior executive in the tech worlds in China, and asked them as I ask people regularly in my travels: “What do Americans most mis-understand about the ground here?”

He paused and noted: “Americans as they assess our economy – with all its many challenges right now and they are substantial – fail to understand how much the average Chinese out-saves Americans – like around 40% here to low single digits there.”

I had assumed this included significant money in real estate, where some research shows is off 30% or more in most major cities in China.

“Americans always get this wrong. We are not Egypt. Yes, people have savings in real estate, but I’m talking about bank deposits. When the consumer come back – and they will here – they will come roaring back.”

He paused again and said something I heard repeatedly during my trip in November and wrote about here.

“The only challenge in the short run is that we as a nation are focused less on the consumer spending now, and more about a very clear strategy to have the fastest, most advanced, highest quality, highest customer service, vastly lowest cost manufacturing of just about everything. Here’s another thing you miss – we have an energy strategy across capabilities from fossil fuels to solar to nuclear to have the lowest cost per kilowatt electricity to this end and to ensure we can lead in AI and robotics.”

He pauses one more time. “We do that, and the consumer will come. Covid, supply chains, your unpredictability. We have learned that no country wants to be overly reliant on anyone for anything. China, unlike most countries, has the scale and resources to achieve self-reliance.”

Self-reliance, by the way, does not mean isolationist. It is a statement of China wanting to call its own shots on their terms.

One interpretation could be that this is all in service of or an act of war preparation.

Another interpretation was stated by an American CEO friend with operations globally when I shared this story: “They are smart. We should have been doing this for years.”

As a senior official in Singapore said to me last year: “Have you all sometimes forgotten that the best way to compete is to compete?”

Are we giving as much attention to what obstacles hinder our competitiveness at home, and where there may be shared interests abroad?

“Here’s a contrarian question: can we build bridges in an era of burned bridges?”

There is nothing wooly headed in asking this question. In fact, most of the success I have experienced has been asking “why” when conventional wisdom has become conventional.

It came from one of the least wooly headed, most pragmatic, toughest and visionary executives I know who recently asked if we might find “informed engagement across borders.”

On the long plane ride back from China, I began to fuzzily recall a concept from my youth when I studied history of diplomacy in college. AI, of course, updated me a bit.

Legendary political scientists Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye in 1977 created a theory they called Complex Interdependence, arguing that modern superpowers are bound by much more than just the threat of nuclear annihilation. They showed that dense networks of economic, social, and technological ties create a reality where traditional military conflict causes severe mutual self-harm.

While their theory coming deep within the cold war and nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) strategy of the time, there was less focus on the opportunities in the networks of economic and technological ties. In fact, those ties were a fraction of what they are now. But their observations remain provocative. And the differences in realities today instructive.

Here is an interesting mind exercise.

Let us say we assume there may never be “shared values” regarding governance or civil liberties.

Let us also assume that structural realities mean co-existence is not a soft, idealistic choice but simply the only choice. These include, but are not limited to, impenetrable militaries; relatively automated defense parity; unbreakable economic ties both between us and deeply intertwined through third-party countries and complex global supply networks; and global existential opportunities and challenges in health, natural disasters and uncertain ramifications of AI and Quantum.

Let us further assume that these are not only realities today but in any foreseeable future and thus should be the premise of our relationship rather than, say, Cold War and Thucydides Trap historical analogies and comparisons.

Let us add that in all this there may be areas outside of crises where engagement would not only help avoid them to begin with but unleash greater and measurable outcomes for all.

More precisely, what if we define this reality as 1) our military strength makes war very unappealing to each; 2) defense tech and autonomy offers a new MAD for conventional weapons; 3) China has set up manufacturing tech and low cost energy infrastructure that may or not be matchable but not over takeable; 4) “tech wars” don’t exist as each side will keep pushing the other to innovate; 5) shared “values” remain controversial, but there are huge shared interest to more than guardrails - in areas like health, job creation and loss; maximizing opportunities in – dare I suggest – space?

What if dialogue about such realities does not require details of competitive technological or military advantage, but about best practices and concrete deliverables for better societies.

Three examples:

Global Health - Pandemic prevention, biometric security, and drug supply chain stabilities rely on joint management but also open capabilities to, say, cure cancers more quickly.

Economic Stability - Automation and AI will bring untold opportunity and disrupt job markets in both nations; maximizing societal benefit while managing labor shocks requires stability and shared learning in service of both new opportunities and potential dislocations.

Space Exploration - As both nations build independent lunar bases, orbital traffic and rescue protocols demand rules but also the possibility of co-authorship to achieve goals faster.

Why wouldn’t we prioritize this in our strategic engagement as well?

Here at home, the political incentives remain with the binary analogies of win-lose. Politicians in both parties win votes by sounding tough, promising total economic independence, and threatening restrictions. The media incentives remain equally binary. It is easy to write a headline about a new EV tariff or an AI chip ban. It is much harder to write a headline about the millions of invisible, multi-layered supply chain connections that cannot actually be unwound.

China has its own political realities and incentives, of course, also.

And, of course, a litany of well documented actions and steps in the last decade which may simply as a whole or in part mean my assumptions scenario is beside the point. What if my friend’s chastisement is right, and none of this matters – it’s too late?

What if it isn’t?

Some pretty thoughtful people are turning their attention to these questions.

Washington being Washington and academics being academics, and all of us being creatures of habit and analogy, one friend used the term with me the other day, Mutual Assured Economic Destruction (MAED).

They point out that after years of escalating trade tensions, both Washington and Beijing have finally mapped out each other’s economic pressure points. They realize that triggering a full economic break would instantly cause catastrophic, reciprocal domestic failures.

Beyond closed doors and outside of social media I hear more and more such discussions happening. Some have told me in the last summit while nothing concrete came – and invariably most pundits focused more on “who won” – tone matters. And, at least for a moment, there was a different tone. A different tone has meaning.

Let’s see what happens in September.

* * * * *

I have found that travel has a way of stripping away the grand, abstract theories of geopolitics and business I too often gravitate towards, leaving me with better ground-level realities that actually dictate daily life. If nothing else, it makes my questions better.

Whether navigating the immediate anxieties of how AI will shift our workplaces or discussing what kind of future we are leaving for our kids, the core concerns in both the US and China look remarkably similar to me. And they do matter. And they may instruct our premises and push us to rethink our assumptions.

For what and for whom is power politics serving?

I continue a journey in digging deeply in the Tang Dynasty period of China in the 7^th to 10^th centuries. This period is particularly interesting for today because it was one of the greatest, most forward-thinking, creative, and globally embracing societies in history. And yet, in a few decades it also astoundingly quickly fell into anarchy and collapse that may have cost a catastrophic population loss that census records suggest cost up to 30 million lives.

In a few decades.

It is no surprise that some of the greatest art and poetry in the world came from such a time. My favorite, and that of millions, remains Du Fu.

In 748 what he wrote in Twenty-two Rhymes Respectfully Presented to Vice-Director of the Left, Senior Wei addresses this question head on:

“To guide the sovereign to surpass the golden ages of the ancient sage-kings, and to restore the nation’s societal fabric to harmony and abundance.”

Ultimately, governance isn’t an ideological competition – though everything in our political existence and certainly in social media tells us otherwise. It’s a practical tool for solving human problems and unleashing human potential.

If this is enhanced with, separate from or in opposition to China is matter for the leadership of both countries. But it is a choice, not an inevitability.

And there are creative scenarios with clearer assumptions based on a very different time.

The Year 1000: A small portion of the Qingming Scroll from the Song Dynasty shows vibrant trade in a Chinese community.

“Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.” Charles Caleb Colton in Lacon: Or Many Things in Few Words, 1820.

“There is no such thing as a new idea. It is impossible. We simply take a lot of old ideas and put them into a sort of mental kaleidoscope. We give them a turn, and they make new and curious combinations.” Mark Twain to Helen Keller, 1902.

“To learn broadly from many masters—that is your true teacher.” Du Fu, Six Quatrains Composed in Jest, 761 AD.

“Imitate, Assimilate, Innovate.” Clark Terry, Jazz legend, Elmhurst College Jazz Festival, 1991.

It is in the nature of revisionist history to focus more on that we got things wrong rather than why. In a town like mine where people prefer to say, “mistakes were made” rather than “I fucked up,” this may come as little surprise. But the focus on and/or denying blame misses the power of dispassionately absorbing lessons learned.

The provocative journalist and podcaster Andrew Keene recently toured the world with me from war in Russia and the Middle East; to European years-in-the-making reliance on one country for energy; to all of our years-in-the-making reliance on one island for chips and more. He asked: Why do we miss these things so often?

My answer was twofold: we too often tend to think against all evidence that the next five to ten years are like the last; and we rarely truly understand the ground.

I also shared what Laura Blumenfeld, a special friend and great journalist covering the Middle East and more, once called the “third cappuccino” phenomena. She often noted in her world travels, including war zones, while political uncertainty, chaos or unrest could be brewing here, only a few blocks away cafes were filled with people drinking their third cappuccino. Standing up takes work – and risk – and against great odds and momentum sometimes it’s just easier to sit down.

Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford reminded me of perhaps the most important answer of all in her wonderful, provocative book I finally read, though it came out in 2024: Upstart: How China Became a Great Power. Too often we miss things because we assume that, deep down, others are and will act just like us.

Mastro argues that China did not simply copy or challenge the U.S. head-on across the board. Instead, it followed a smart, selective “upstart” approach—acting like a startup disrupting an industry—by choosing where and how to compete based on what would build Chinese power while minimizing direct confrontation or alarm.

The strategy rests on three key components:

• Emulation: China copies or pursues similar strategies to the U.S. in areas where the U.S. is already dominant, when doing so helps China gain strength and reassures Washington that its intentions are not immediately threatening. This builds power without looking overly aggressive.

• Exploitation: China adopts approaches similar to the U.S.’s but applies them in new or different domains/areas of competition where direct rivalry is lower risk. It takes advantage of strategies that have worked for the established power without fully mirroring them in sensitive spots.

• Entrepreneurship: When straight emulation might provoke a strong negative reaction from the U.S. or others, China innovates with new, creative, or asymmetric approaches tailored to its strengths. This allows it to carve out advantages in novel ways.

This mix, she compellingly argues, decided case-by-case depending on the domain (economic, technological, political, military, etc.) enabled China to grow rapidly in influence and power while avoiding the kind of unified international opposition that might have “stemmed its rise.”

In short, when Mastro talks about China “pursuing an upstart strategy,” she means Beijing has strategically blended imitation, opportunistic adaptation, and innovation to climb the great-power ladder cleverly, rather than through outright confrontation or pure replication.

It is the assumption of emulation that has really stuck with me. When I was in business school in the 1990s it was an all but unarguable that economic growth could only happen sustainably over time with Jeffersonian democracy. That after the collapse of the Soviet Union there would be one play book of success and that was the play book of our rise. I remember participating in a debate around then about Singapore which, of course, took a very different path to economic security and governance that delivers enviable services as “the exception that proved the rule” or “could not scale beyond a small city island. “

Cut the camera to my journeys in global startups and especially rising markets. There was an assumption that any great company abroad could only rise by localizing that which had already thrived in the West. That entrepreneurs would build “copycat” companies. Didi or Grab or Careem would emulate “Uber” in China, Southeast Asia and The Middle East respectively maybe with some local language, culture, and regulatory nuance. That, similarly, Mercado Libre and Alibaba were merely localized “Amazons.”

We missed that emulation is not an end, but a means.

Yes, ride sharing and ecommerce to pick two examples of course would build off the success of American juggernauts. One of the local builders at the time told me, “Entrepreneurship is risky enough. Building a tech company outside of Silicon Valley is viewed as risky enough by investors especially in emerging markets. So why not imitate? Then we will innovate.”

WeChat and Alibaba embedded payments, credit and financing within their experiences in a way American apps did not. “But they pretty much used our payment technology” one Silicon Valley friend dismissed. And they did, with their own technological innovation and adapted it all to local user experience and needs and brought hundreds of millions into banking services many never had previously.

In Latin America, instead of pure replication, Mercado Libre built a hybrid ecosystem with heavy fintech integration (Mercado Pago for payments and credit), loyalty programs, and localized services that addressed gaps Amazon didn’t prioritize in the region. It’s often described as blending Amazon-style e-commerce with Alibaba-like ecosystem thinking, fueling faster growth in key metrics and market dominance despite Amazon’s entry. It remains larger than its next 14 competitors including Amazon, though interestingly fastest headway has recently come from China. Emulation got them in the door; innovation in payments, financing, and regional tailoring let them leapfrog and sustain an edge.

By the way, enterprises like these with millions of customers, local know-how and national/regional regulatory navigation and massive unique data sets could not be better positioned for whatever may come in AI. Integrated behavioral data from super apps gives Chinese, Asian and Latin American platforms richer, more real-time training signals for recommendation engines, fraud detection, personalized services, health, education and now agentic AI (where AI handles tasks like shopping or bookings end-to-end). U.S. companies, fragmented across separate apps with privacy walls and legacy payment rails, may have a harder time achieving the same closed-loop depth. Both may win. But for different reasons.

I adore that we believe “innovation” is about the massive, new shiny invention. We are seeing more nations like China, India, Brazil, the Gulf and more do the same on their terms. At the same time, for billions these enterprises innovated their societies. We westerners too often missed the deeper adaptation and context-specific innovation.

Emulation was the entry ticket—starting with proven models to reduce risk and gain traction—but it was rarely the endgame. It was a means. Smart players – in governance and business --use emulation as a scaffold, then build something better suited to the terrain.

Mastro’s upstart strategy argument explicitly frames this in great-power terms, drawing from business analogies (China as the agile “startup” disrupting the incumbent U.S. “established player”). Emulation happens when mirroring the leader in familiar domains builds power and reassures the incumbent that you’re not an immediate existential threat. But China (and its companies) frequently shifted to exploitation (applying similar tactics in new or ignored arenas) and entrepreneurship (creating asymmetric, tailored solutions where straight copying would fall short or provoke backlash).

In both the China great-power context and the startup trenches, emulation is tactical—it de-risks entry, buys time, and lets you study what works. The real alpha comes from audience-centric innovation: deeply understanding your users’ context (infrastructure gaps, behaviors, pain points) and building products that solve for them, not just transplanting a Silicon Valley or Western template. As I wrote here, the case study of China’s strategy and building embedded advantage in manufacturing, manufacturing tech and lowest cost energy access is a playbook of its own.

The absurd part of the copycat accusation – what blinds us from seeing beyond our core view of what is required to succeed – is the implication of lack of originality or even laziness. In practice, fast followers who execute with local insight frequently become category leaders or create new ones (super apps being a prime case). Now, with AI accelerating everything, those data-rich, integrated ecosystems have compounding advantages—something U.S. incumbents are racing to address through embedded finance, agentic tools, and cross-app experiences.

It’s a reminder that in competitive strategy—whether nations or companies—rigid “original vs. imitator” framing misses the dynamic reality.

The north star is not the playbook per se. It is steely focus on what works. And massive, competitive execution to that end.

My friend, and one of the great entrepreneur builders and thus question askers, has launched a superb podcast. We dug deeply together from the ground up in the ever changing worlds of China, AI, and rising economies who seek choice and sovereignty. And of course some time on what we read and why.

I’ve just finished another three weeks in China and will be sharing my notes shortly. But the themes Ian draws out below served me very well focusing not just on the great tech leaders and geopolitical change. I am listening carefully more and more to what people are thinking about in their daily lives outside of the social media hype of FOMO one-upsmanship. What is shared, I must say, is far larger than what divides. Everywhere I travel.

Our times drive the visceral.

Our times require pause and reflection - all in service of better, longer term action.

I hope you enjoy this - in transcript or audio. I’m grateful to him and his team at

More soon.

Outsider Inc.

🎙️ Asking Better Questions with Humility: 15 Years on the Ground in Emerging Markets w/ Chris Schroeder, Next Billion Ventures; Author of Startup Rising; former CEO, HealthCentral

Listen on: Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music…

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2 months ago · Ian Hathaway

(Vuelo Villa, by Xul Solar — 1936)

“All is vivacity, gracefulness, and sparkle to the eye; but, ah, what fires are smoldering below?” – Harriet Beecher Stowe, during her first trip to Paris in 1853.

“Hope is something that you earn. We got our hope because of the hard work we put in every single day. Don’t borrow our hope. Hope with me.” Wanjiku Gatheru in August 2023.

“”We know in the short term the situation will worsen but then we will see the fruits of our efforts.” – President Javier Milei in 2023

“How does an outsider with 10-15% congressional support get all this done?” – Argentinian private equity investor in March 2026.

Unpacking a predictable path of successful governance has proven, in all my travels, too often illusory. But three interconnected themes seem quite clear.

First, successful politics is not a predictor of successful governance. In fact, in the performative social media world we live in globally, the former optimizes for the viral, short-term hit while the latter requires hard work over time.

Second, related to this, and certainly in America, if we think of our governance as at best incompetent and at worst an insider’s rigged game, we should be unsurprised that populism rises at scale both right and left.

Third, this is because, among other things, if you marry such suspicion with massive societal change at home, in revolutionary tech advances, and shifting relations abroad, simplicity of message is very appealing. As the great 20^th century theologian Reinhold Niebuhr said of orthodoxy: “[It] is never rooted in faith but in doubt. It is when we are unsure that we are doubly sure.”

No wonder, at least in the west, we seem to be in an age of anti-incumbency.

I thought about all this during my week in Buenos Aires meeting with a wide array of senior executives, tech founders, policy makers, journalists, analysts and young people. Because something is happening here if, to steal from an old Buffalo Springfield song, “what it is ain’t exactly clear.”

Anyone having strong views on a politician in this era, and in Argentina in any era, is unsurprising. President Miele is either a chain-saw wielding extremist, aligned with MAGA, and one step away from being an authoritarian. Or he is exactly the right combination of willful unpredictability, courage and conviction required to change a long-struggling country that has all the resources which once, in the last century, made it one of the top five global economies.

But facts are stubborn things, and even his greatest critics concede that inflation has dropped from over 200% to 30%; the budget has been balanced in six months; significant business regulation has been eliminated; bi-partisan labor laws viewed once as untouchable have been passed cross party. Freedom House has taken it in two years from 140^th in ease of doing business to nearly 100. After surging to over 50% during the first months of President Milei’s term, Argentina’s poverty rate plummeted by more than 21 percentage points to 31.6% by mid-2025, its lowest level since 2018.

In less than three years.

As one politician said to me, “It reminds us that ideas matter. But decisions and conviction for those ideas matter most. We have gone from one of the most closed economies in the region to the most open through tireless follow-through.” Most staggering and perhaps encouraging for those of us who believe that gridlock, campaign finance and identity politics makes change impossible, no one I met – not one at any age or party – thought what has happened in Argentina was possible three years ago.

Many will say bluntly that the significant wins for the Milei team in the regional and local elections last fall were boosted – some said even won – by last minute financial aide granted by the United States. But the local polls overall were clear: most voters were unwilling to go back. “What is happening here is at the cultural level,” one political analyst said to me. “The culture is changing because people are seeing they have a shot and we all must participate. Transparency, economic freedom, serious respect for rule of law, respect for institutional predictability; assumption one can get their money out – these are re-engineering our DNA.”

I never quite received a clear answer as to why now. A combination of exhaustion at business as usual among the electorate, a feckless opposition who had lost touch and took voters for granted, and a mercurial leader of no party with both ideas and the conviction certainly have been essential. For even older Americans who can recall the prime rate hitting over 21% in 1980, 200% is incomprehensible. Every person I met had a story of they or their families bringing duffle bags of cash to a restaurant or grocery store knowing it might be insufficient within hours.

Argentina has slashed or eliminated over 20 different taxes in two years, bringing the national tax burden to its lowest level in two decades at 21.4% of GDP. By removing major barriers like the Impuesto PAIS – an attempt to stem loss of foreign reserves -- and lowering export duties, the government has pivoted toward a fiscal model that prioritizes international competitiveness over state revenue. While unions remain funded with mandatory dues intact, small business will benefit from the 2026 Labor Modernization Law – the first in 45 years and surprisingly bi-partisan – which slashed hiring costs by replacing unpredictable severance payouts with a pre-funded insurance system and extending probation periods to give companies more time to evaluate a hire before committing to a permanent, protected contract.

It doesn’t hurt to have a weak opponent. Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was held to account for her inability to control soaring inflation and a series of high-profile corruption scandals. After years of legal battles, she was sentenced to six years in prison and given a lifetime ban from public office for fraudulent administration, having been found guilty of steering massive public works contracts to a family friend. As one politician said to me, “They got so bad it was a treat to be against them.”

The greatest question none of us have clarity for is two-part: is this time different, and will it hold? Most remember the hopes during Peronist shift to neo-liberalism in the 1990’s under President Carlos Menem and the more recent attempts at reform of President Mauricio Macri. After hopeful beginnings, concrete and sustained success never took root.

To many, this time feels different, but many don’t want to make the call yet. One local executive told me, “If you don’t get in (and invest) in the next two years you will miss it. Think still Christina [Kirchner] prices with a Milei system.” That level of conviction, however, was rare. Investors and operators there and abroad need to see more and see that it holds. One US oil executive said to me, “We won’t bet big here for years.” I asked whether that means should President Miele win re-election in two years, and he said, “I was thinking 15 years.”

The government, in the meantime in word and deed, declares it is open for business, especially in energy, mining, finance and AI.

The stories of regulatory capture and corruption that have historically weighed on their potential were legion. One expert in mining noted that Argentina shares the same mountain range as Chile, and the latter has mined $50 billion in copper to Argentina’s $5 billion – the difference being primarily in over-regulation. There is opportunity here and beyond. The country is the world’s fourth-largest producer of lithium. Much enthusiasm was shared for the multi-billion-dollar deal to build data centers for Open AI in the South.

It was jarring, compounded by the perfectly good weather in one of the world’s most beautiful cities, that war in the Middle East and Ukraine was all but undiscussed. When it was, it was more about macro uncertainty generally and the challenges to inflation for a country seeming to tame it. At the same time, the country is the largest producer in Latin America of natural gas; top five in oil production, third in electricity, third in renewables. Higher energy prices thus cut two ways. Over time, low energy costs will be the sine-qua-non for the future competitiveness of both manufacturing and tech and the country intends to be the low-cost provider in the region.

China, however, was in every meeting. Clearly the people I spoke with knew their audience. They underscored how important America was to the future of Argentina and South America; that we share values and ambitions that matter. “I think we can create with the region and America truly western values supply chains,” one trade expert noted. Several people told me that Argentina does not have the navy or coast guard to adequately patrol its long shores, and as much as $3.5 billion a year is lost to China over-fishing its waters.

At the same time, one CEO with assets across the country told me – and I’ve heard a version from Singapore to Saudi Arabia to Nigeria – “Look, the Chinese are extremely smart; they do their homework; they ask what we want; they listen; the execute in a fraction of the time of most global competitors including America; all at 30% off. What do you expect us to do?” Another said, “They are patient, pragmatic, hard working and not concerned with losses. They have built ecosystems of parts and supplies around their main efforts in mining, agriculture and more.”

In his focus to instill competition and best pricing for Argentinian consumers, President Milei has opened the door more for BYD. And Temu, Shein and especially Shopee have made more in-roads in Argentina than Amazon. China has an operational space station in southern Argentina since 2018.

With all this, overall, it is no surprise that China remains Argentina’s number one trading partner, perhaps switching periodically with Brazil, representing up to 20% of their total imports in machinery, electronics and fertilizers and over 22% in exports including soybeans and pork and over 80% of their beef exports.

Argentina leaders believe it will be part of a regional political trend – mostly recently in neighboring Chile. Inaugurated on March 11, 2026, Chile’s new president, José Antonio Kast, mirrors Argentina’s leadership through his landslide victory on a platform of radical state reduction, aggressive anti-immigration measures, and a commitment to free-market “shock” policies to revitalize a stagnant economy. They watch carefully Colombia and other countries and note that both Mexico and Brazil have moved more pragmatically and regionally market oriented. In any event, one journalist told me: “We have no war; no narcotics; no migration issues. Wherever the region goes politically we are in a pretty good place.”

* * * * * * * *

My first trip to Argentina was almost exactly 22 years ago. It was on that visit that my admiration for Jorge Luis Borges began. One line among many returned to my memory: “Nothing is built on stone; all is built on sand, but we must build as if the sand were stone.”

The challenges for Argentina are legion and success can be, and has been, ephemeral. One energy CEO paused amidst some happy talk at breakfast: “I’ve found what can change for the positive very quickly can change for the negative quickly.” Nearly half of the country did not vote for Milei. The elite in Buenos Aires have one perspective that has not necessarily had direct impact on people in the other 22 provinces. In fact, the region of Buenos Aires itself voted against Milei’s candidates’ last fall.

Over 1/3 of the economy is informal. A friend got his shoes repaired and spoke to a small shop owner: “All this talk of change hasn’t affected me at all; prices are still too high.” One reporter smiled when I shared this and shrugged: “The fiscal performance is staggering, and nothing touches more people than taming inflation. They will feel some of that. But they are also experiencing job losses, and bumps and uncertainty. It’s all less about what politicians say, and what charts they show, and all about what they do that people can feel within the next two years.” The Labor Law suggested Milei and his team can work across the aisle, and the election results should help. But time will tell.

Perhaps the great surprise to many was how much the young came out in droves to support Milei. One person told me, “He is the Mamdani of Argentina” meaning he mastered social media, fired up the young voters and got them out to vote. Of course, what the young voted for in Argentina is distinctly different than in New York City. Though what is perhaps shared is an adamant “no” to business as usual.

Some argue that for the young there is simply no turning back, “We like living in a country back to modern” said one young person at dinner who noted that until recently nearly every transaction had to be paid in cash as credit cards let alone mobile money was all but impossible. The Peronists – once the dominant among 39 national parties – seems crushed and without an alternative plan.

But political history is made of people rising without prediction – no one more so in recent years than Milei himself. The winds of change are real but often shift.

At the same time, something has happened here that no one predicted.

And the west should take note of it if for no other reason to call into question the belief that our systems and democracy itself -- encumbered by years of short-term political incentive, social media ADD, identity politics and apathy -- is unfixable.

(Van Gogh’s Yellow Books, 1887)

It was, indeed, a magnificent year of reading – inspired in preparation for my travels, around questions that fascinate but often haunt me and, as always, recommendations from the great readers I admire and have as friends.

Note, yet again, book links go to marvelous independent book stores, run by special people I admire: Middleburg Books overall and for China and Asia the remarkable LF Books here in Washington, DC. Please support them or one in your worlds.

I have provided a full list of what I read below – every one I thought was superb -- but here are among my favorites:

In American History and Society, biography overall was the winner. Edward Luce’s, Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski, America’s Great Power Prophet is wonderfully written in the style of great biography – in-depth, profoundly researched, down the middle and beautifully written. Paul Nagel’s, John Quincy Adams: A Public Life; A Private Life is a wonderful read of this great intellect, public servant, from a great family tradition but terrible President. Yet public service was first and foremost at his core. Walter Borneman’s, Polk: The Man Who Transformed the Presidency is an excellent read. Imagine a President who came in to do four things, did them and didn’t run again, all against impossible odds. A shout-out also to the marvelous Arthur Herman’s, Freedom’s Forge: How American Business Produced Victory in World War II. It is a fantastic historic reminder that Democracies can build when it matters, and with astounding leadership across our society.

As I shared in my extensive notes here, I spent three weeks in China and much of the year travelling globally where China was often the first subject. Hu AnYan’s, I Deliver Parcels in Beijing has been a run-away best seller in China, based on a blog, of life in the gig economy there. It underscores the astounding challenges, always eye-opening and sometimes funny, but is a moving and poignant look at the questions of work and life choices. Dan Wang’s best-seller, Breakneck: China’s Question to Engineer the Future, is superb, and brilliantly analyzes the tradeoffs of an engineering mindset building China and its ramifications there, America and the new global order. Yasheng Huang, The Rise and Fall of the EAST, is an astounding study of the history of the Chinese test as he unpacks 2,000 years of autocracy and stability. “EAST” is, in fact, an acronym for Exams, Autocracy, Stability and Technology and is a perfect framing for the long-term trajectory of China’s political and economic development. I will add that I delved deeply into Du Fu for the first time. The Selected Poems – translated by David Hinton is a sampling of this 8^th century poet – to Asia what Shakespeare is for the West -- who captures the humanity and beauty in a period of historic uncertainty and calamity that is as relatable today.

On Asia more broadly, Sheila Miyoshi Jager’s, The Other Great Game: The Opening of Korea and the Birth of Modern East Asia is a superb, magisterial look at Korea through the Sino Russia/Japan Wars with astounding history, brutality, culture, intrigue and narrative we are still addressing today. One must read the brilliant and courageous journalist Snigdha Poonam’s Scamlands: Inside the Asian Empire of Fraud That Preys on the World. The global systemization of scamming is beyond comprehension without her, and it is hard to appreciate that we are still in early innings in scale and technology.

In Antiquity, James Romm’s, Plato and the Tyrant: Fall of Greece’s Greatest Dynasty, and a Philosophic Masterpiece is a brilliant look at Plato’s direct experiential influences for his Republic from advising Syracuse and seeing its fall and the book drove me deep into the primary sources.

On Europe, Adam Lebor’s The Last Days of Budapest: Destruction of Europe’s Most Cosmopolitan Capital is wonderfully written, poignant and a tragic look at this great city before and through World War II. I visited Auschwitz this spring, and Rudolf Hoess’ staggering memoir Commandant of Auschwitz (Memoir) is an astounding and rightening detailed account of this massive manufacturing facility of death.

In Fiction, Benjamin Labatuts The Maniac is likely my favorite book of the year. It is a beautifully written semi-biography fictional account of John Von Neumann – arguably the smartest man since Newton – and his leading roles in the Manhattan Project, the first in building computing and envisioning the power and challenges of AI. The last fifth of the book ties to the Alpha Go story and cannot be put down. Sczcepan Twardoch’s The King of Warsaw is also one of the great novels I’ve read, about Poland pre-war. Riveting plot and astounding writing. Han Kang’s Human Acts: A Novel is a breath-takingly written description of political protest/arrest and torture – during Korean uprisings 40 years ago.

As I wrote here, I also spent a month in India. In preparation, Rahul Bhatia’s The New India: The Unmaking of the World’s Largest Democracy is a meticulously written and reported book of the rise of Indian politics today, with context on the RSS and tour of the dynamics around the BJP. It taught me how little I understood. I went deep into the brilliant historian William Dalrymple – all superb – but nothing like his The Anarchy which is by far the definitive look at The East India Company – a mind blow history of a massive corporation as country all but forgotten today. In much of my travel I dig into the history of film in the country. The genius almost founder of Indian film Satyajit Ray wrote several memoirs and Our Films, Their Films is a collection of his most insightful writings describing the best of Indian film and influences from abroad after the War.

On the Middle East, and intriguingly on American and western politics, Omar el Akkad, One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This is a gripping, provocative, controversial, National Book Award Winner that simply must be read.

On the History of Faith, and Faith and Spirituality itself, I devour everything Elaine Pagels writes. Miracles and Wonder: The Historical Mystery of Jesus shows why she is among the greatest historians of early Christianity as she explores the life of Jesus in revealing depth.

I cannot emphasize enough that the rest below are all wonderful as they strike your interest.

Forgive me if I’ve forgotten anyone, as often when someone I admire recommends a book I order it on the spot and misplace the recommender. But, for sure, I humbly thank:

Herb Allen, Marc Andreessen, Marcus Brauchli, @cavoliChris Cavoli, Sandy Coburn, James Crabtree, Nate Fick, Sarah Friar, Bonnie Glaser, Virgina Girard, Marc Grossman, Stephen Hadley, Blair Hoffman, Yuanpu Huang, Roderick Jones, Parag Khanna, Ewa Kurowska-Tober, Michael Morrell, Michael O’Hanlon, Mina al Oraibi, Evan Osnos, Snigdha Poonam, Samir Saran, Ben Schroeder, Elizabeth Schroeder, Jack Schroeder, Julia Schroeder, Dick Simon, Tom Smith, Wojtek Soczewica, Sissi Su, William Weschler

American History and Society:

John Bacon, The Gales of November: The Untold Story of the Edmund Fitzgerald

Page-turner on the history of shipping on the Great Lakes around the famous sinking of a ship of song.

Zach Cooper, Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

Part history, part current events, always timely tour of the rise of China and American military might.

Jerusalem Demsas, On the Housing Crisis: Land, Development, Democracy

Expertise wrapped in beautiful writing – how did we get here well reported, ways forward.

Miranda Devine, Laptop from Hell

Controversial, seriously reported look at Hunter Biden and the machinations around he and his action.

Calvin Duncan and Sophie Cull, The Jailhouse Lawyer

A superb memoir of a wrongly imprisoned man who became his own lawyer and changed laws and lives.

Robert Jervis, How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics

Superb essays from the end of his life on how emotion, bias, perception affect global strategy/politics.

Alfred Thayer Mahan, Influence of Sea Power Upon History

Finally read this epic that shaped naval strategy across the world since its writing in 1890.

Manning Marable, Malcolm X

Very possibly the definitive biography of this complicated and important figure.

Tom Stefanick, Information War: How AI is Driving US-China Military Competition:

Not yet published but can pre-order – a great tour of AI and tech revolutions reshaping combat.

Jon Tetsuro Sumida, Inventing Grand Strategy and Teaching Command: AT Mahan Reconsidered

This was a brilliant overview of the biography and writings of the great and relevant naval strategist.

Antiquity:

Kenneth Harl, Empires of the Steppes: History of the Nomadic Tribes That Shaped History

Superb, readable history of the Mongols and other great tribes with tremendous nuance and context.

Plato, translated by Armand D’Angour, How to Talk About Love: Translation of Symposium

A beautiful, annotated and analyzed translation of one of my favorite dialogues of the great man.

Plutarch, Life of Dion

Primary source of the remarkable story of Plato in Siracusa in his hope of finding a wise king.

Steven Pressfield, Gates of Fire: The Epic Novel of Thermopylae

Excellent, page-turning historic fiction on this epic battle and its context.

Asia:

Kerry Brown, Why Taiwan Matters: A Short History and How it Will Dictate our Future

Very readable, one volume and the history, scenarios and scenario consequences.

Victor Cha, The Black Box: Demystifying the Study of Korean Unification and North Korea

Excellent look and analysis of North Korea in history and today.

Zalin Grant, Facing the Phoenix: The CIA and Political Defeat of the United States in Vietnam

Amazing story of Tran Ngoc Chau, Vietnam soldier/statesmen who tried to be heard, ignored by the US.

Daniel Tudor, Korea: The Impossible Country

A bit dated, but good, brief overview of Korea’s rise economically, politically and culturally.

Min Ye, China-South Korea Relations in the New Era

A bit academic but very readable look at the history and current navigation of these great nations.

China:

J.G. Ballard, Empire of the Sun

Brilliant novel based on the real boyhood in Shanghai prison during the war. The film does justice also.

Benjamin Brose, Xuanzang: China’s Legendary Pilgrim and Translator

Beautiful history and textual analysis of the great Buddhist scholar and traveler of the 7^th century.

Confucious, The Analects

A collection, taken down by his followers over years, of the great figure’s philosophy of life and service.

Eva Dou, House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company

Meticulously reported, well-written on one of the most extraordinary/controversial companies in history.

Emily Feng, Let Only Red Flowers Bloom: Identity and Belonging in Xi Jinping’s China

A richly personal and reported book of society, bottom up, in China over the last decade.

Paul French, Midnight in Peking: Murder of a Young English Woman Haunted Last Days of Old China

Page turning account of a remarkable crime, that also captures as a historian can, China in the 1930s.

Henrietta Harrison, The Man Awakened from Dreams: Life in North China 1857-1942

I enjoyed this look at rural China at a critical time in history, through a beautiful journal.

Yuanpu Huang, Unpacking China: 50 Essential Q and A’s for First-Time Visitors

I’m not first time, but this wonderful book is a must read by an influential there bridging cultures.

Matt Pottinger et. al, The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan

Specific context, history and extensive data/plan of action for this case. Must read.

Edward Wong, At the Edge of Empire: A Family’s Reckoning with China

Superb, beautifully written look at China today through the lends of his father’s profound history.

Odd Arne Westad, Jian Chen, The Great Transformation: China’s Road from Revolution to Reform

Few have their expertise and perspective, superb one volume.

Michael Wood, In the Footsteps of Du Fu

The great documentarian and historian brought his love and discovery to one of the world’s great poets.

Chenggang Xu, Institutional Genes: Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism

Magisterial look at China through its institutions, and the role also of Soviet Russia forming them.

Zheng Yangwen, Ten Lessons in Modern Chinese History

Very good, academic overview of the last two centuries of this remarkable history; with great references.

Europe:

Hal Brands, The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World

Very good, readable narrative history of Europe (and the West) engagement in Asia/Central Europe.

Stephen Budiasky, Journey to the Edge of Reason: The Life of Kurt Godel

Comprehensive, readable, even eye-opening looks at one of the great math minds of the 20^th century.

Winston Churchill, The History of the Second World War: Volume 1 Gathering Storm

The best of his wonderful six volume history, occasionally self-serving but candid and beautifully written.

Giuliano da Empoli/Sam Taylor, Hour of the Predator: Encounters with Autocrats and tech Billionaires.

Provocative look at the decline of the elite intellectuals and what has filled their place globally.

Carl D’Este, Warlord: A Life of Winston Churchill at War

Another biography of Churchill? This is a riveting, well written, look at his war experience and impact.

Christopher Guilluy/Malcolm Debevoise, Twilight of the Elites: Prosperity, Periphery, Future of France

Provocative look at massive cultural and political shifts in France resonant here and across the West.

Gustav Herling, A World Apart: The Journal of a Gulag Survivor

I could not put this book down; poignant, mind boggling, too often forgotten today.

Robert Hughes, Rome: A Cultural, Visual, and Personal History

A wonderful, narrative history of my favorite city outside of America, by the great Australian writer.

Dan Jones, Henry V

Fast paced, readable, thoughtful history separating the remarkable man from the myth.

Giorgia Meloni, I Am Gloria: My Roots, My Principles

Translated into English after four years, a fascinating/blunt account of a significant figure of Europe.

James Nichols, Jr, Alexandre Kojeve: Wisdom at the End of History

Very good overview of the controversial, once communist thinker who influenced GATT and the EU.

Caroline Dodds Pennock, On Savage Shores: How Indigenous Americans Discovered Europe

Provocative and historic look at how Europeans were viewed by local peoples, as best as can be shown.

Fiction, Literature Film and Writing:

Eliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis, 2054: A Novel

Second page turner in a series of the future of politics and tech in a world of espionage and war.

James Baldwin, If Beale Street Could Talk

Beautiful novel of love, betrayal, race and failure of justice for a young man unfairly charged.

Fyodor Dostoevky, The House of the Dead

Staggering and beautiful read of life in Russian prisons camps – then as now so similar and resonant.

Cedric Fabre, Marseille Noir

I visited this great city for the first time and fell in love with it; short stories that capture so much.

David Freedberg, The Power of Images: Studies in the History and Theory of Response

A magisterial tour of art history and how generations have understood/absorbed imagery.

Claire Keegan, Small Things Like These

Irish writer is among the best of her generation; a poignant/beautiful novella as a man confronts his past.

Akira Kurosawa, Something Like an Autobiography

A truly wonderful memoir of the great man’s early life up through the magisterial film Rashomon.

William J. Lederer and Eugene Burdick, The Ugly American

Not read since college, remains a superb look at how top-down institutions misunderstand the ground.

Jean Raspail, The Camp of the Saints

Controversial 1973 dystopian novel telling the ramifications of massed, uncontrolled migration.

Salman Rushdie, Knife: Meditations After an Attempted Murder

A moving memoir, reflection, come to terms with living and near dying under Fatwa.

Leo Tolstoy, Hadji Murat

Stunningly beautiful story of war and betrayal and courage in the battle lines of 19^th century Russia.

Sally Quinn, Silent Retreat: A Novel

Page-turning exploring impossible love in the South she loves, with her ever great journalistic eye.

Stefan Zweig, The Collected Novellas

I’m glad Zweig has been rediscovered; I think one of the greatest writers of the 20^th century proven here.

India:

William Dalrymple, The Golden Road: How Ancient India Transformed the World

A definitive account of the rise of India in antiquity, and its major role in global innovation then and now.

William Dalrymple, The Last Mughal

A moving, blunt look at the fall of the Mughal Empire and rise of the Raj.

William Dalrymple, The White Mughals

Deeply and impossibly moving story of spies, love, betrayal across race and religions in India.

Ramachandra Guha, Gandhi Before India

Meticulous, intimate, heavily researched volume of Gandhi before Independence

Ramachandra Guha, India After Gandhi

Also, excellent view of India in the decades of political and cultural shift after his death.

John Keay, India: A History

A definitive and magisterial history of India from its’ earliest days.

Sunil Khilnani, The Idea of India

Wonderful tour of Indian history post 1948 as its rich, diverse cultures became a nation.

Joseph Lelyveld, Great Soul: Mahatma Gandhi and his Struggle with India

Well reported, in depth and non-hagiographic look at one of the great figures of the 20^th century.

Barbara Metcalf and Thomas Metcalf, A Concise History of India

A very good start to my journey, one short volume primer by two serious historians.

VS Naipaul, India: A Wounded Civilization

Beautifully written, blunt reporting and analysis on India in the late 20^th century. Dated but a lens.

Satyajit Ray, Speaking of Films

Wonderful vignettes of the great influences on one India’s great film directors and how he made films.

Arundhati Roy, An Ordinary Person’s Guide to Empire

The great writer’s essays and reflections on Empire and its elements from India through the US in Iraq.

Salman Rushdie, Shalimar the Clown

My favorite of Rushdie, a beautiful, painful, page turning novel of Kashmir, love, ambition and war.

Rahul Sankrityayan, From Volga to Ganga

An epic of Indian literature, a series of short stories capturing India over a thousand years. Brilliant.

Samir Saran, Anirban Sarma, Geo Technography: Mapping Power and Identity in the Digital Age

Though a global view, their incomparable lives and experiences in India raise key questions for the future.

Mark Twain, Mark Twain in India

A wonderful reflection and observations of the great writer’s travels in 1895.

The Middle East:

Christopher de Bellaigue, The Lion House: The Coming of a King

Narrative history through the eyes of the great Ottoman 16^th Century Suleyman. Reads like literature.

David Rundell, Myth or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads

One of the best one-volume overviews on the Kingdom, but at the speed of change already dated!

Theology, Spirituality, Health and Deeper Outlook:

William Barclay, Introduction to the First Three Gospels

Clear, concise, enjoyable look at the history, context and text of these scriptures.

James Hillman, Soul’s Code: In Search of Character and Calling

A moving, spiritual and psychological exploration study of our essence and individuality.

Katherine Hoffman, Beyond the Five Senses

This was wonderful in draft form – keep an eye for it – history, science experience in psychic belief.

Henry Oliver, Second Act: What Late Bloomers Can Tell You About Success

Some days I feel I’m seven and just getting started, but in fact am always blooming. Good guide.

Katie Simon, Tell Me What You Like: An Honest Discussion of Sex and Intimacy After Sexual Assault

A very powerful personal experience, and that of others, to guide a crucial discussion all but undiscussed.

“The people of Great Britain, for the very reason of greater wealth long enjoyed, are not habituated to the economical endurance of the Germans, nor can the habits of individual liberty in England or America accept, unless under duress, the heavy yoke of organization, or regulation of individual action, which continues the power of Germany among modern states.” -- Alfred Thayer Mahan, 1910.

“We may be doomed if we do and doomed if we don’t. We cannot compete without China’s supply chains and affordable parts and services. At the same time, we have lost our capabilities in these areas and thus are not and may never be competitive.” -- European manufacturing executive, Beijing 2025.

“All our new investment in President Trump’s America - what some $1.5 trillion - is a reverse Marshall Plan to save the United States!” -- Korean trade expert, Seoul 2025.

“The idea we didn’t fully appreciate is that China invested heavily in low margin and high cap ex businesses, and that is less of a problem if in a decade you own market share, can raise prices and/or have new markets.” -- American tech analyst, Silicon Valley 2025.

“The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.” Deng Xiaoping, Southern Tour 1992

I went to China last month for the first time in six years. I was there at the invitation of a fascinating group that includes CEOs from China and America to meet in Beijing. But this was also an excuse to get back on the ground and look around, and delve into the culture, tech shifts, history and people of this astounding culture(s).

It is inherent in my nature that when conventional wisdom blows unified in one direction to seek what other winds may be out there. The winds toward China – certainly in Washington and Silicon Valley – have unified as a gale force. It is the one truly bi-partisan issue in the former, and activity there has shrunk to near insignificance (perhaps outside of outsourcing) in the latter.

I tried to park two biases on this visit, one going over and one coming back.

The bias arriving was to avoid putting every meeting and observation into the framework of who is winning or losing. Similarly, on the return, I wanted to avoid the “game over” meme that executives often spin up from a recent visit. In fact, as I landed The Telegraph reported that American executives that were there when I was returned “terrified.”

As the Zen proverb says, “If you want to get hold of what it looks like, do not be anti or pro anything.” My goal was to carefully watch and listen without trying to fit experiences into a pre-determined framework.

I met with CEOs, investors, writers, tech executives and workers, and policy/academic advisors. I listened carefully to DiDi drivers through translation apps and staff at hotels and restaurants. I met a dozen young parents navigating the shoals of their kids’ futures. I spoke with students themselves. I did the traditional Beijing/Shanghai run but wanted to see second tier cities and had deeply rich conversations in Xi’an and Nanjing.

While barely scratching the surface, what I experienced was strikingly consistent and fascinating. Here is what I saw:

Six Years is a Lifetime

Six years ago was the 70^th anniversary of the nation’s founding, a few months before Covid and GPT was on no one’s radar. Most economic indicators were up and to the right, and there was a palpable buzz in the streets of China’s place in the world. The hotel lobbies, restaurants and streets had many westerners still seeking opportunity even considering a decade or more of rising obstacles. The market remained just too big and was growing, 6% reported that year.

The most visible change was how few Americans and westerners I saw in any city. Even at heavily touristed sites like the Terracotta Warriors, I was one of seven from the West in a sea of tourists, and the only American. Of westerners I saw more broadly, Russians were the plurality. More traffic, subway, and restaurant signs appeared in English but I was surprised even in service areas how little fluent English was spoken. I needed a translation app in two excellent hotels at the front desks. One general manager told me that US travel was down 50% after Covid and has been 50% lower since then.

The economy was described to a person – to a person – as “shit,” “horrible” and “sucks” and there was a heaviness to most conversations on current prospects. I visited many shopping malls, lowly trafficked but for the restaurants, though I was reminded repeatedly that everyone shops now online for everything.

American and western luxury brands, especially in wealthy areas in places like Shanghai were frequently and beautifully marketed. But other than iPhones, when I asked people what American brands they now cherished, few came up with the exception of celebrities like Taylor Swift (though in the same breath as K-Pop) and an occasional NBA star. American and European car designs were repeatedly described as “old” or “dated.”

Coke products, once a staple here, are being increasingly replaced by Chinese healthy, tasty, energy brands like Chi Forest. With billions in revenue in China and extensive expansion in the region – over 40,000 retail locations in Indonesia and roll out across Japan, Korea, Thailand and Singapore – they just announced a deal for almost 600 Costco locations in the States.

I asked many people upon what they believed Europe most competes on in the 21^st century and heard repeatedly some version of “high end luxury brands and museums.”

A Tale of Two (and Familiar) Economic Cities

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” -- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

Conversations on the economy had surprisingly resonant themes back here at home, divided clearly between significantly wealthy and tech worlds and everyone else. The bet in both countries is the former will unleash and not weigh down the latter.

The tech worlds – robotics, AI, deep tech in particular – could not be more ebullient. I was reminded repeatedly, as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says publicly every chance he can, that in market size, innovation and sheer numbers of engineering talent and capital, China is already at or near toe-to-toe with America. Technology is ever more embedded in all aspects of daily life, cash is truly all but gone now, and products from EVs, solar panels, consumer transactions, banking, AI applications, energy tech and more are ubiquitous.

At the same time, unemployment of young people in their twenties is likely 25% or greater and I am told many are no longer looking and living at home. For a country that seeks greater consumption, most indicators suggest people are feeling the pinch and spending much less.

Real estate prices in most cities are down at least 30% both residential and commercial. This chart on office occupancy, if even directionally true, should give anyone pause:

I asked several real estate investors if a drop from a possible bubble told me much about economic weakness and was told: “It matters a lot. Real estate represents nearly 30% of the GDP. In China, real estate is like the bank where most people save for their futures. We still are not out of the debt crises of massive real estate developers and the collapse of massive players like Evergrande.”

I heard repeated stories, especially in third and fourth tier cities of extensive foreclosures. Few investors felt they had reached a bottom to invest significantly, though a few deals have been made. And at the highest end, new, world class multi-use buildings continue to find buyers. An executive once with Otis told me there will be economic opportunity in refurbishment of all buildings and infrastructure. Apparently over one million buildings that should have an elevator do not.

Manufacturing overcapacity, requiring at least in the short and medium term extensive exports, weighs heavily. And the conversation has taken on compounding meaning in an era of unpredictable American tariffs and Europe thinking twice about Chinese EVs and reliance on Chinese manufacturing and markets.

Most of the people I met conceded that overcapacity is troubling, especially in sectors like EVs. They hope over time with rising economic potential and better demographics of young populations across Latin America, South East Asia, The Middle East and Africa will be part of the answer.

Many Americans think Chinese are fantasizing that the global south - a term I hate in its over generalization of highly diverse countries and locales - will have a material impact on their issues of exports, debt, demographics and more. One analyst told me total Chinese trade with these markets may be over $2.5 trillion. But there isn’t close to the additional demand China needs to absorb existing excess capacity.

At least in the short term.

It was clear to me that China believes they can help accelerate economic growth in these markets because that is what they did over time in China only a few decades ago. Most Americans at the time never fathomed the scale and speed of the rise of the middle class there, and China sees this happening widely. If Nigeria gets even half their performance a decade from now…

I also have learned in my travels more broadly that we often underestimate that China, as a former emerging market, speaks the language of the complexity of growth in new markets better than the West. They understand their unique challenges and how to address them.

China, of course, has its own hubris and while rising markets may embrace it in many ways they have also learned - with examples like European over-reliance on Russian oil; the world on Taiwan chips; the world on rare earths - that dependence is a bad thing. China in “rare” earths has 60-70% of the extraction and 95% of chemical separation with heavy requirements in energy, water and chemicals. All with leading tech.

The issue for most countries is not about “choosing” in a Cold War sense as between the US and China but rather hedging by distributing risk more broadly. That’s a balance of US, Europe and China but also within rising markets. It is a world of greater choice from India, the Gulf, Latin America, Africa and more.

More interestingly, when I raised overproduction of solar panels, I was told to visit the western part of the country. “You will see solar panels to the horizon, and the best in wind technology. Never has it been easier to move electricity anywhere more affordably. So not only is over capacity being absorbed here, but it is contributing to China being the most efficient and cost-effective producer of electricity anywhere.” The scale is hard to identify in the data and many reports suggest the West has been better on emissions performance than China. Xi’an I was told is still 85% coal, but with some of the cleanest capabilities and that number will drop in coming years.

But as demand for power will only increase due to AI and other technologies, China believes it has both a strategy and advantage. Already, through subsidies but also operational efficiency and latest technology, the cost of electricity can be much cheaper - half than the West and rapidly decreasing. As the Financial Times noted, one of the key advantages the country has in catching up and excelling in AI and chips is its energy strategy.

As Germany shuts off its last nuclear reactor, China has 58 operable reactors, 33 under construction and 43 planned. It has technological breakthroughs enabling these capabilities, and some of the leading innovation in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) - the latest is there. The west has something to learn here, and energy potential is indicative of their fundamental potential economic strength now and over time.

My friend Jens Eskelund of both Maersk and President of the European Chamber of Commerce sits on a LOT of data and has been on the ground in China for three decades. He reminded me that for all China’s economic troubles without China world growth is about zero. Global exports in container terms were up 9% last year. It would have been zero without China. This year, to Europe up almost 10% while Europe to China by the way is down 8%. Global trade with the US is down in both directions but not that consequential as the numbers remain large. “This is NOT some era of deglobalization.”

He also instructed me that the real story is in the containers. “In 2019 China had 31.9% of all export containers; in 2024 36.2%; three weeks ago over 37% - they have had an increase of 1% of global market every year for five years.”

Another friend told me that Chinese debt has risen from 100% of GDP to 300% in recent years - “a kind of their own massive QE of sorts” - and that is hard to sustain. I forgot to ask him what that means for America that, including personal debt, is in or around 700%.

You Say You Want an Involution?

“Involution means basically the internal elaboration and rigidification of a basic pattern, rather than a change from one pattern to another.” -- Clifford Geertz in Agricultural Involution: The Processes of Ecological Change in Indonesia

One of the best books of many on China I read in preparation for this trip was a best seller just translated into English last month, I Deliver Parcels in Beijing by Hu AnYan. Started as a blog, the author tells the journey of working in multiple enterprises in the gig economy in China from delivery to ecommerce warehouses. It is an eye-opening look at China from the ground, and the work demands there. It is at the same time very funny and also poignant as he explores his own attitude to work, value in society, whether to work hard as in “996” or seek life balance.

It is an excellent primer to an aspect of Neijuan or “involution” in China – a significant reassessment of the hyper competition, long work hours, cultural and life demands that has both fueled much of Chinese success but also a rising sense of hopelessness and questioning. Many in China have argued that the hyper brutal Darwinian competition in each sector – multiple competitors pushing each other to innovate, increase efficiency, and lower cost – is driving a “rush to the bottom.”

My sense is aligned with one of my favorite analysts of China, Yanmei Xie currently with MERICS who argues thoughtfully that this competition is at the heart of China’s ability to take on or crush global competition. She notes: “China now makes 55 percent of the world’s steel, 57 percent of commercial vessels, 76 percent of lithium-ion batteries, more than 60 percent of EVs, and 80 percent of photovoltaic products, despite chronic involution gripping these sectors. This manufacturing prowess means Beijing has little incentive to overhaul its system of economic governance beyond periodically pruning the excess of state-directed investment.”

One of the most compelling arguments for the strength of this competition I heard many times, especially from executives, is that China is in a “period of testing our historic resilience.” They note that the recent hyper growth years spawned many bubbles and challenges and getting back to first principles is essential for the long run. They note, in fact, resilience is deep in the culture of China for centuries.

They believe that not only are they emerging with the greatest technology driven innovation and industrial base at the lowest cost, but that this could be a ten-to-15-year journey, something the West and particularly America is less willing to accept in terms of more short-term political incentive. One executive looked over my shoulder, “whatever challenges we face, we have seen SOOO much worse.”

I saw an example of this visiting a Xiaomi automotive plant, a massive, fully integrated facility of over 720,000 square meters and over $9 billion in investment. It is heavily autonomous to the tune of over 90% - not one of the fabled “dark factories” without any workers at all, but significantly greater than Tesla’s there at about 65%.

They can assemble a car – and I timed this – in 20 seconds, spitting out the final product every 76 seconds. There are over 407 robots in the body shop, interestingly many manufactured in Japan, and offer a wide range of beautifully designed cars across many price points starting at $30,000. There is no overcapacity here. Despite the economy, there is a two-year waiting list. Apparently some people when they buy them resell them instantly for a 30%+ margin. One could pretty much eat off the floors. I was reminded by experts that these capabilities “are dwarfed by BYD.”

Tik Tok videos have recently shown car batteries blowing up and this was greeted with a shrug. “We won’t be saying that shortly.” One investor told me, “In the end these companies are truly battery and energy companies, and the structural, technological and cost advantages are China’s.”

I was also greeted with a shrug when I asked how European car manufacturers were going to be able to compete with what I’m seeing. One auto exec told me that Mercedes had effectively handed a plant over to them to refurbish and, again, shrugged.“No one has made an argument of how this is not game over for the US and the West except that they will keep our products out. But Japan and Korea will be better also. Will they keep them out over time?”

As I wrote here, one of my greatest takeaways visiting TSMC in Taiwan last year was the importance of the ecosystem of world class providers of the supply chain. One of the greatest challenges in their launch of a facility in Arizona was that there was little ecosystem as there had not been a need for these players when everything was supplied by Taiwan. Literally they had to ship chemicals from Taiwan to Arizona because they didn’t exist there. They also had to ship back the chemicals’ waste because there were no operators to process it.

What has been so striking to me is the extent of ecosystem building around the core, scaled products and services in China. I had a beer with the head of a large chemical maker there who underscored just this in the progress China is making around AI chips. “There is so much opportunity in supply chain management here, but even here the competition is brutal.” A VC told me that the ecosystem for robotics – the full stack nature of the operations themselves – are “without parallel certainly outside of the United States.” And he reminded me that a strong ecosystem not only creates synergies and competitive costs - it helps ensure that China need not rely on anything or anyone.

Rui Ma of Tech Buzz China is a very thoughtful analyst on the innovation and startup scene in China. Her recent trip notes aligned with mine. The speed and scale across cities, the increasingly greater connection and integration between software and hardware, the common use of AI and integration of both foreign and domestic chips are remarkable. Alibaba, Baidu and others have been in chips for some time, are able to scale significantly if even lower quality than America and believe catching up sufficiently is a matter of time if conceding it will be “a long way to go.”

Many investors told me that the quality of entrepreneurs has never been better for a very specific reason. Historically, great entrepreneurs were often launched by their experiences in a previous scaled success. For years in America, it was called the “PayPal Effect” as so many successful entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Max Levchin and others spun out from that learning. Across the globe I’ve seen similar instances from Mercado Libre, Nubank, Careem, Grab and more. But now in China people describe the “AI Effect” among a new, AI-first generation. They join DeepSeek or other AI enterprise for six months or so, learn and leave to do their own startup.

A significant question in America’s assessment of AI in China is that they are willing to access massive data sets that so far we will not due to concerns ranging from privacy to sensitivity using genetic and health data. It became clear to me that we must be candid and blunt on the tradeoffs where China can excel, accelerate and compete globally in crucial sectors from national and domestic security to drug discovery and health services with this data.

A Different New Generation Coming

“Unique and different is the new generation of beautiful… You don’t have to be like everybody else. In fact, I don’t think you should.” – Taylor Swift

I had dinner one night with millennial CEO’s and founders and to a person lit up on a subject debated similarly in their circles in America: Gen Z. “We never thought we were that different, but we are. They drive me crazy. They want to come to work at 11:00 and leave at 5:00. I can’t give them feedback without telling them how wonderful they are. What the hell?”

I also, however, mostly met astounding twenty-somethings willing to work all hours and dedicate themselves to a mission. But in exchange they wanted a sense of purpose – in what they are doing overall but also to be explained why things are as they are in a given task.

Many told me, especially women, that they had no interest in marriage but wanted to focus on building their careers and making changes and all but mocked their parent’s vision of being “left over” if not soon married.

They talk openly about their personal challenges, not a few about how important their life coaches and counselors are. “Stigma is still enormous in mental health in China,” one entrepreneur building a platform for families to find counselors for their children, “but technology is making it more accessible and private.” One executive told me that in many larger schools there may be one counsellor for 1,000 students and AI offers real hope where estimates suggest 20% are suffering from depression. It took me ten minutes talking with one founder before I realized that her “counselor” was actually a co-authorship between a human and GPT. “I can’t get more than 50 minutes with her a week, but GPT doesn’t charge me at 2:00 AM and is very good.”

The significant and aging demographic problem was discussed with me often and without pause. One education expert noted that schools, even private schools, are having trouble filling a class. One told me that even a private school with a capacity of 250 students has 45. The answers are limited.

Some optimists suggest robotics will fill the employment need without taking on the risk of migration required and problematic in many countries in the West. But overall, this is a significant issue without a clear solution, especially with a new generation prioritizing marriage and kids less.

Six years ago, nearly every family I met hoped their kids would go at least for a time to an American university. I heard some of this among students, but much less of this from parents now, in part because of the changes in visa policy but also a questioning of what the return will be. “It’s not clear to me anymore,” said one father, “what $500,000 for four years in America really will return in this changing world.”

And many parents express an anxiety often heard in the States about what skills their kids should build, what paths they should pursue, in a world of AI and hypercompetition. “How much stability or growth in sectors and traditional jobs have in the future? Banking and consulting would mean much less. Is it better to be “influential” as part of the resume? Are we really betting on the company or just multiple jobs in the right sector?”

There are two phenomena that might be very instructive to what may be brewing bottom up in China that will come of age when many of our current presumptions may differ wildly. The first ties to the young generation asking questions. I saw this not only in Gen Z, but parents often described how their younger kids don’t do what they did – pretty much take what a parent and teacher says at face value – but push for understanding and explanation. One parent told me admiringly, “they dare to doubt.”

This, for me, may be a sign of independence and critical thinking not in a political sense but in a sense of agency and potential for creative problem-solving. Americans don’t fully appreciate this if they have not recently travelled to China. One night in Shanghai, I was taken to a large area of clubs and restaurants for young people and was struck by how everyone had their own fashion style, very individual, very much a stance of conviction.

The second is I had the opportunity to meet some senior government leaders at the local and city level. These – in their thirties and forties still but still a new generation – to a person adhered to protocol and political reality. But once the formalities were done, I was struck by how open they were about their challenges, the technocratic and superb questions and innovation to find solutions. At some meetings where they could have easily left after the welcome, they stayed sometimes for hours and asked and probed. They wanted to get things right. They wanted to show where they have had success and learn to do better. They wanted results. They were strikingly humble.

I expressed this to a friend there, a well-regarded consultant in the intersection of tech, business and policy. He looked at me like I had two heads: “You Americans somehow think Chinese are all about rote learning and towing one line. It is a very rich and complex collection of societies, and the challenges require innovative and creative solutions from many places. This is a great strength. I’m from Hunan, and if you ever go there you will see immediately that no one is shy to tell you exactly what they think. This is part of a new playbook for China.”

How We View Each Other

“To know what you know and what you do not know, that is true knowledge.” – Confucius, The Analects

In all my travels, one of my favorite questions to ask is what they think Americans most misunderstand about their country; and what does their country most misunderstand about America.

I found most Chinese I was with, albeit often English speakers who often worked or studied in America, assume that China has a better handle on America than we do on them.

To a person they are confused as to why Americans assume that every engagement is zero-sum. I was told repeatedly that China’s first goal is always China, and its stability over time. One American expert told me they have a point. “In many ways they are the most clear and predictable adversary we have ever had. They see their interests in their terms, and too often we see them on how we wish it. Their global ambition is in service of greater independence from an existing order.” To which I heard repeatedly from the ground, “why should we accept blindly an order whose rules we played near no role in creating?”

I asked how creating another order – say with BRICS – excluding the West is not its own statement of aggression. The answers were never clear. One analyst there told me, “This is a counterweight to perceived American dominance – your ability to tell actors what to do. You are stuck in a Cold War mind set of wanting countries to be for or against us and if they choose to act in their own interests they risk being sanctioned by you.”

Another added that a real asset America once had was being the “predictable and stable” partner even with our perceived high-handedness, but now that is progressively China’s place in rising markets. “You think we go to emerging markets for cheap labor and resources – but labor will be less cheap in time, and as those economies grow their ability to spend only increases. We are there as their partners in that journey and meet them on their terms. We are still a rising market, so we speak a similar language. They will benefit from our high quality and affordable products, and here lies the longer-term solution to overcapacity.”

One Chinese investor told me that most executives are working under the assumption that US and European investment in China was on the path “of being gone.” China is in the process of adapting accordingly, which has compounded their efforts to partner with rising markets. There was particular and regular enthusiasm about the Middle East, especially the Gulf. As I wrote in a previous post, America, China and a World of Choice, Saudi and UAE leaders have told me repeatedly how solicitous, fast moving, customer service oriented Chinese partners are now, and always 30 percent cheaper or more. No surprise that apparently the massive UAE sovereign wealth fund has opened offices in China.

One investor told me, “Not everything is about you. It is about self-sufficiency. America has become energy self-sufficient for very sound reasons. We share those. We have all learned that putting too many eggs in any basket can be catastrophic.”

Another told me Americans think “central planning” in today’s China is the Soviet Union. “You miss the core of what is happening here. This is a fight against vulnerabilities. We know where we are behind, but that success is first and foremost about innovation by, for and within China.” Chips are exhibit A. “Your actions clarified for us the cost of over reliance on any one provider for anything. Reliance on others for core capabilities risks instability.”

I raised often the recent 60 Minutes episode about Chinese penetration in our rural electrical grid, or a report from Norway that China can remotely shut down the vehicles they manufactured, or IP theft more broadly. Responses varied and were predictable. They pushed back on American desire to keep them down or that it is normal that massive nations test each other – America bugged the phones of their allies, they noted – and these dynamics are real but addressable.

One friend there, very thoughtful and engaged in dialogue east and west, was subsequently more hard nosed. I shared with him my concern on how China has kept Russia’s economy afloat during the Ukraine War, how there are recent reports of China and the drug cartels. We watched together the 60 Minutes interview with Anduril founder Palmer Luckey on China’s military threat and autonomous weapons and how. He replied: “He’s not wrong.”

I was pushed provocatively about our allies. One said, “You certainly have “better” allies than we – you have NATO, and Latin America and more and we have Russia, Iran and North Korea. But what does it tell you that most of your allies have China as their number one or two trading partner?”

Many told me that America over indexes on internal restrictions within China, especially politically, and misses that for those tradeoffs they can move much faster as a “leap frog” society that is open to loosening any restrictions that does not threaten political stability.

Equally interesting to me was answers to what China gets wrong about us and the answer was virtually always the same: “That America’s best days are behind it. That has been said repeatedly over the years, and your ability to self-correct is significant and your resources, market, technology and innovation still remain formidable.”

Others told me, “Especially in the tech worlds we underestimate how hard Americans work.” Another, “We believe these times call for resilience and that is a core strength in China – but too often we underestimate the resilience in the States.” One smiled at me and said, “We share some similar challenges in our societies today. In both China and America things are rarely as good or as bad as people think.”

Taiwan, Tech and “Winning”

“Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose.” -- Ronald Reagan to Richard Allen, 1977.

Taiwan didn’t come up often, as it remains as it has for decades that elephant in the room people recognize is there but won’t say much new about it. Those who did discuss it were predictably reductionist and unsurprising – it is China already now, American policy has always acknowledged it, and actual integration is not a matter of whether but when.

What surprised me were two specific premises.

The first is that America would not accept casualties to fight that far away - “anyone who saw our military parade and yours, anyone who follows our advances in defense tech knows that China cannot be beaten,” one Chinese defense analyst said to me.

The second, and related, is that discussion of a Normandy-like invasion scenario while so focused upon by American military strategists is unlikely because integration will happen without a bullet being fired. Just over time.

To the first I noted that I’m not an expert in military engagement and would never speak for any government, but I might relook at the assumption. History shows that others have believed America won’t step in but when a national interest like oil is involved we repeatedly have. Chips are the 21^st century oil. And not just for America but a swath of the world in the process of re-arming.

The second surprised me in the consistency with which I heard it. The scenario looks like this. The current ruling party in Taiwan, The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who most strongly pushes back on China, is in political trouble, likely to lose local elections later next year. The opponent, the Kuomintang (KMT) party has welcomed closer relationships with China, especially with its new party chair Cheng Li-wun.

Peaceful integration is simply inevitable with time. As one person said to me, “Taiwan is not a bird that is flying away. Any timing and integration strategy is ours, and certainly not set by any President in Washington.” Several senior business leaders enthusiastically and openly told me there is significant mutual economic opportunity in integration as soon as possible.

I wondered throughout this trip, as I have for some years in my travels, what and how America has leverage in the world over time and how leverage must evolve in a world of choice. A US tech executive long engaged with China said to me, “I think the risk is our leverage is simply decreasing politically and in business; that as China seeks self-reliance they will generally conclude they do not need anywhere as much as we think from us or even the West. And that may mean they simply are willing to take more pain than we in the short and medium term to the end of not just decoupling but moving strategically on parallel paths.”

By all means America cannot move fast enough in unleashing its innovation in the service of being competitive at home and abroad, and to have the strongest security capability both technologically but also knocking away any regulatory barriers to that end. As I wrote here, and stealing from the Romans, nothing assures peace better than being prepared for war and all the money and innovation in the world won’t serve us if we gum up our capabilities in looking back and ignore cumbersome regulation.

We can rage against the Gods of China subsidies and practices, we can argue ad nauseum about whether they are truly innovative and ten feet tall or weaker than they think, but in the end they are here and do what they do.

For me seven core questions seem essential - for business and policy - in any strategic consideration in a very new era. They are perhaps obvious but too often left in the abstract:

1. What does it mean to “win,” especially in AI, quantum and other rapidly rising tech? It is surprising how hard it is to get a clear answer from anyone in the public or private sector. For some it is a backward view of desiring American hegemony of the 1990s or increasing isolation and self reliance. For others it is about maintaining lead in key tech sectors. For others it is about boxing China out of technological infrastructure around the world. For China it appears to be about building the best capability, do so and in the most tech-forward, efficient low cost possible, be beholden to no other nation except in service of itself and compete accordingly. Which sounds most “winning?” And what is to be done? To steal from great television series The Wire, in some respects this is not even a war because wars end. Innovation keeps on coming. And it inevitably surprises.

2. If China is increasingly toe-to-toe technologically and economically focused on greater independence, what leverage does America and its allies have in the world and to what end? And is there reason to decide that in some areas it is no longer worth trying to compete and who decides? Is some combination of leading capability with massive barriers a strategy for the world as is coming? Will global partners continue to be pushed to “choose?”

3. What are we willing to do not merely to check or contain China but unleash the best of our capabilities and endurance and ability to digest short term pain to get us there? Competition by sanction may be at times effective today, but also a declining asset over time. A senior Singapore figure once asked me what is the best way for America to compete in the new world, and answered his own question: “to compete.” He meant the best products and services, the most trusted long term engagement and customer service at the best price - from the public and private sectors. The question begs focus on what is needed to compete not today but where the world is going; what stands in the way of competing in sectors essential and not “game over”; sectors that can leap frog. It means brutal action upon regulations in the new competitive environment that slows us. It means a new engagement with partners with their own increased agency meeting on their terms better than the alternative.

4. What industries - defense tech, energy, AI/Quantum, advanced chips and other - should be prioritized and why? These themselves are fairly broad. It requires a blunt, forward-looking assessment about priority, capability and the talent required and skills built today (dare I add immigration strategy). It means paying close attention to the ecosystem and supply chain required. Not for the coming year, but decade.

5. What is our best engagement with a rising world with limitless access to technology, possessing critical resources, and potential rising middle classes optimizing for their own agency and over reliance on no one? Nearly every key nation’s number one or two trading partner is China. China’s bet over time is that many of these markets will become much stronger and demographically strong over time. What is our proposition of alternative? I just spent a week in Argentina and they are steely eyed about China. I was told they lose over $3 billion a year to Chinese fishing in their own waters but are more than pleased to sell a larger share of meat, soybeans and lithium to them. At the same time, they do not want to have their eggs in one basket. I hear some version of this across the world. What is our proposition?

6. What concisely are America and China’s shared interests? And there are many. Discussion continues on, as examples, borderless threats of pandemic, weather patterns, violence from non-state actors, rising migration but also trade and best practices to solve problems we share at home. What entirely new dynamics in technology – AI and robotics and bio tech and their societal impacts – require shared learning and engagement? Not only in preventing unintended consequences and crises, what solutions have we each discovered in health, wellness, education, city infrastructure, poverty that can unleash talent and society wherever it may be and to mutual benefit?

7. How can we possibly stay on top of any of these questions if we do not communicate, get on the ground, more broadly? How can we better understand and clarify the premises we have for each other and maintain room to maneuver if we stop meeting each other bottom up from the tech, business, education and other sectors.

History is a story of great powers seeking an edge and trying to come out on top. The ramifications and result has been often debatable. Maybe that is inevitable also today. The nature and speed of technological advancement, the global access to it, and rise of economic opportunity and scale because of it, is without historical precedent. Thus, for me, the most likely scenario is this: we are all here and need to figure out how to deal with each other in very different challenges.

In the foreseeable future, the United States and China will set many rules of the road especially in technology, but India, Europe, The Gulf and other rising nations often of massive size who may step up and into the new economy will play a more significant role than at any time in recent history. I’d be building my scenarios heavily on this reality. In business and investment, I already have.

My trip was the beginning of the investigation into these questions and whether and where engagement is possible or desirable. I remain in favor of room to maneuver.

A Final Note

One of the most provocative books I’ve read in recent years is by the historian Thomas Fleming, A Disease in the Public Mind. It unpacks the period building up to the US Civil War and does not so much refute the well-studied causes but adds a new dimension.

He noted that at some point the sides at all levels lumped each other in one narrative without nuance, no longer heard each other. There were many creative efforts to end slavery short of war with, say, compensation – as the British had done in the Caribbean and Thomas Jefferson’s grandson had had some success in engaging the Virginia legislature.

They may have failed and war was right and inevitable anyhow. But one thing was clear: when sides stopped understanding each other, boxed each other into their own perceptions of who they are and what they wanted, there was no room to maneuver.

I think about this dynamic in today’s politics in America. And it has stuck with me seeing so few Americans in China and returning to Washington for the continued talk of Thucydides traps if even punctuated by potential tariff and trade deals.

There are rumors that Presidents Trump and Xi may meet three and perhaps four times next year. That may be an opportunity if viewed realistically, and with answers to my questions above clearly understood. They do not substitute for the decreasing time spent by business, technology and business leaders - and students, tourists and more - spend on the ground.

Few Americans know the Tang Dynasty poet Du Fu – as important to China and Asia as Shakespeare is to the West. I am fascinated by this period in the 7^th and 8^th centuries because in less than a century it went to one of the most enlightened periods in world history – open to ideas, debate and innovation – and ended in civil war that likely killed as many as thirty million.

I was pleased to discover him during my travels to the places he once walked and to be astounded by his utterly relatable and very human descriptions of unforeseen circumstances, unintended consequences, and terrible outcomes. In one of my favorite poems, The Army Carts, he concludes with a cautionary note useful for today.

“Go ask the Emperor –

What sin have the people committed

To deserve such endless war?”

Harold Tanner died last week after nine decades as one of the great figures you have likely never heard of.

And that was fine by him.

In all things – as a husband for nearly seven of those nine decades, father, grandfather, great grandfather, a coveted financial advisor and investor, leader in issues central to him from Cornell to leading Jewish organizations and more – it was never about him.

It is hard to capture his presence when he entered the room – one stood straighter, acted more respectfully, had a feeling that one wants to just be their better self. Some of it was his great height and deep baritone voice, with an intense ability to listen and respond deliberately, making each word matter. He was also very funny, liked a good laugh, and had a broad and infectious smile – most often at his own expense.

But it wasn’t his physical manifestation that made us want to step up.

It was his uncompromising character and integrity. In all things.

Around a decade ago, LinkedIn asked its “Top Voices” like me to reflect on a mentor, and though I have been blessed with more than I deserve, Harold Tanner was the easy choice. No one, outside of my parents, had a greater impact on my career and who I am as a human being. If I have an even half decent moment as a mentor today, it is because of his example and life that lives on in every such encounter.

I am grateful to LinkedIn that I could write it when he was alive, and he was characteristically touched and embarrassed by it. I would not change a word of it and share it with you here:

****

How many of you remember the Hal Holbrooke character in the old movie "Wall Street"?

This captures the essence of him in a way:

What thus is forgotten, or lost track of in all this then as now, is that there are a few amazing individuals in the financial worlds who care about what they do — their ability to help companies navigate thorny problems; to help growing enterprise find the capital they need to grow, expand and create jobs; to share the knowledge that in these rapidly changing, unpredictable worlds require sober understanding of great complexity to help navigate to our potential; to invest in a new generation of the same.

One of my first, and perhaps greatest, mentor comes from this lens. No surprise when I was a kid, paying off student loans on Wall Street myself, and this movie came out, he was regularly described as the "Hal Holbrooke" guy.

Harold Tanner is not a name from the headlines, in large part because there is little he dreads more than calling attention to himself. He has something few people give much credence to in the Internet virtual age — a presence. He walks into the room, and you literally feel his character. When you speak with him you want to be on your best game. If you are ill-prepared, he will look down at you (he stands well over six feet) and nod and quietly ask you the one question that clearly undermines any attempt to bull one's way out of it. He almost never raised his voice in my presence and when I saw him do it one time, he winked at me and noted: "I've been plotting that all morning. When they never think you get angry, they pay close attention to how bad they messed up when you do."

Mr. Tanner — and for more than three decades I've never been able to muster calling him anything else, though I've known him since middle school (he is friends with my parents) — came from modest upbringing in upstate New York, worked his way through Cornell on the GI Bill (having served during Korea) and up the rungs of the ladders of Wall Street the old-fashioned way. He worked harder than anyone else, and his first concern was helping his clients. He no more would think of the most inconsiderate one as a "muppet" as Goldman emails once revealed they did — and he'd happily lose a piece of short-term business to give the honest answer he would believe and maintain that the long-term trust was the foundation of what he built and where he built it.

As you've probably figured out now, Mr. Tanner is the best of mentors in that his greatest strengths are in his example. But he always took a supreme interest in young people who cared and are willing to work. He is without hesitancy giving a young riser the rope she needs to sail a ship, right up to the moment she's about to hang herself. And then he'll step in for that teaching moment.

He is one of the most respected filters in his field, and in this he has taught me much. How many times has someone asked you to meet with/help someone they barely know just to push someone off of their plate? I have a colleague here in Washington who seems connected to nearly every Senator and thinks of me as his token Internet guy — doesn't matter if some constituent kid can't turn on a computer, I'm supposed to help them. Mr. Tanner would never do this. If he asked someone to help someone, he felt he is putting his name on that ask. To this day, if Mr. Tanner starts a sentence, "Would you mind if I put you in touch with..." the answer is simply yes. It will be worth my time as much as that person's. It always has been.

By being such a strong and trusted filter, Mr. Tanner quietly earned the respect and friendship of, well, everyone in his field. He would hate me for saying this, but when I did ask him for a contact here or there, I inevitably found myself with the CEO of this, or leading thinker and impact maker of that. Because they knew if Mr. Tanner thought it was a useful connection, it must be. And they knew Mr. Tanner was always about, right below character, reciprocity. He believes and lives that good people of impact knowing good people of impact meant more impact will come.

At the foundation of all of this is always his fairness — in how he treats colleagues, bosses and underlings, Lords, Ladies and Gentlemen alike. How when he gave advice he always listened — hard — on our terms, not his. He doesn't want, nor ever says, "Here's what I would do." He socratically helps one to find their own truths, by clearing the noise of other people's impressions/opinions that often cloud our best judgment.

What amazes me most is that as years pass — and with different cities, growing families, day-to-day priorities a few lapsed months become years — when I see him it is as if no time passes. And his wisdom, of being "of service" has only increased.

I'd feel pretty special in all this, and I do. But at the same time, I have talked to others who worked with him over the years recently, and every one of them would write this same piece. He has been, by the way, one of the great figures in philanthropy — for his schools, for his Jewish faith and heritage, among countless others — but wouldn't tell you that. He has amazing kids and grandkids cut in his mold. His greatest boast, and most honest he has said to me repeatedly, "I married above myself." His wife Nikki is a great leader at Wellesley among other institutions, and great mentor in her own right.

What has he taught be about being a mentor? Everything. And not only about being a mentor, an executive and leader, but a human being. Be of service; focus on the long term; find women and men of character and stay close; find women and men of character who want to make impact and stay even closer; be tough but fair; never waste people's time. Be present. Listen.

The rest tends to take care of itself. May I be half the mentor. May I be half the man.

“Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum.”

“If you want peace, prepare for war.”

— Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus in Epitoma Rei Militaris, circa 390 AD

Big numbers have their place. It would be both unfair and inaccurate to ignore that the military spending increases announced from Germany and others in Europe and the West are historic. Big numbers grab attention. Big numbers are politically easy to communicate commitment at home and resolve to one’s adversaries abroad.

Big numbers, however, can often also mask the essence of the problem to be solved (and opportunity to be unleashed.) I come from a tech investment background and the quality of investment is invariably as or more important than the quantity of it. Speed is the essence among competitors and adversaries overall.

I have been recently examining a wide series of crucial innovation under the broad rhetoric of “defense tech.” I have made a handful of small investments in outstanding innovators in America and one in Europe and befriended some of the greatest entrepreneurs now at scale.

I just returned from a week in Estonia - the front line of very new lessons from very new war at their border. They are already committed to 5% of their GDP to military spending, and are host to some of the most innovative entrepreneurs in AI, drone and info war capabilities at home and from Ukraine.

I have met at length with military and security officials across the West. And as I spend much of my time with innovators in the “global south” - a term I hate – from Vietnam or Taiwan or the Gulf and more innovation in defense and security is being unleashed globally.

Speaking to all of them - to a person - one message is clear: money isn’t the greatest need. Faster, innovative and transparent procurement and regulation to move product more broadly is the foundation of defense strength in the 21^st century.

I have asked a few sources for a simple chart comparing procurement schedules of leading defense countries and had great deal of trouble finding one. So, I relied on GPT, knowing that painting with a broad brush of very complex systems would be problematic. Even so, and if the following chart were to be taken as an index, the numbers are eye-popping and begs obvious questions:

The irony is all the lessons we need for the future of our defense are being learned in real time by Ukraine, with adaptation and innovation from Russia. Legion were the stories of instant battlefield assessment of, say, drone strikes, using AI with massive data to analyze learning and make adjustments on the fly, employing 3D printers to mock up new prototypes to be made and deployed in weeks or days. As one entrepreneur on the ground said to me, “The key is feedback loop, test and validate things fast – and any company or country who is not doing this loses the opportunity to achieve sufficient technology and readiness.”

This is not an ad hoc exercise but built into the very infrastructure of operations. Another investor explained, “It is the difference between wartime rules and peacetime rules. To have fast adaptation and adoption Ukraine has effectively decentralized the procurement system. Of course, for major arms there are central decision making and parameters set, but those will change quickly based on realities. There are then over 200 different procurement “agencies,” local governments, local military at the battalion and even brigade level making decisions and authorized to have purchasing power with budgets.”

Another laughed, “Do you know how many serving in Ukraine now are trained engineers, AI scientists, entrepreneurs who live by immediate turnaround?” They refer to forces on the grounds effectively having CTOs for strategy and implementation.

Two examples among hundreds:

A Ukrainian jammer company in 2024 navigated a more centralized procurement system that took six months – a lifetime in Ukraine but to my chart above lightening speed. None the less, in that period so much had changed at the front line that the product was all but ineffective. The company, however, knew this but continued to build to original specs to meet the contract and get paid. But in parallel, based on their own learning, they built retrofit capabilities so when the jammers were sent back they turned around the more relevant product within 24 hours. Six months meant hundreds of lives. Ukraine learned and changed.

Russia learns as quickly and shows the power of instant data learning. As Ukraine interceptor drones began to target other drones air to air, huge data sets on enemy hits allowed fast innovation for building in evasive new capabilities in real time. Air-to-air drone-based interceptors are still mostly manually piloted, the advantage in capability and reduced cost will be massive. “It is the 21st century cat and mouse game,” one venture capitalist noted.

As an aside, I was told repeatedly that units tell these stories regularly on Instagram not only to share their learning but to attract the best talent to go to the best units successfully solving complicated operations.

It is well above my pay grade and understanding as a novice in all this, but I have not seen much evidence that intimate detail of the lessons of this war is changing existing ways of doing procurement anywhere near fast enough. There has been encouraging mandates both in Europe and America on procurement efficiency overall, including The White House’s Restoring Common Sense to Federal Procurement a few weeks ago.

Others have cautioned me to believe it when we see it. One officer noted, “Too many of us, under the NATO umbrella really cannot fathom that war could come our way directly, so the urgency and incentive to fast change is limited.” Those I met in Estonia suffer no such illusion.

If I were to waive my hand I would hope leadership in the West would study every lesson from Ukraine, their innovators and the astounding defense tech startup entrepreneurs and leaders more broadly. As I wrote here, I was in Taiwan last October and was flabbergasted by the significant sophistication and rapid changes in info war and AI there. Ukraine and Taiwan are the schools of 21^st century defense. I hope we welcome their schooling. I have no doubt our adversaries have.

As a last reflection, a massive and rapid rethink and implementation of regs and procurement for defense tech cannot be separated from looking hard at rules and regulations that stifle innovation more broadly.

One of the great American investors I know - with not inconsequential holdings in defense tech and massively in AI - has looked long and hard in Europe and has opted off. I am just reporting here:

They have found EU regulations bordering on assault to innovation - fines, taxes, investigations, prosecutions, blocked mergers, regulations that are massive ankle weights. There are crucial debates to be had on AI and privacy, but regulations weigh much more comfortably on the risks rather than serious unpacking of what it takes to unleash its unprecedented opportunities. In recent years they ran into this too often in America as well.

China has its own challenges, but they are not these.

As I wrote here, there are three very basic questions about regulation whose answers can be highly instructive throughout:

What current or new regulations most unleash leap frog innovation and how?

What current regulations well enforced require no new regulations?

What existing regulations killed would most drive fast implementation and growth?

I’m sure you have all read Palantir’s Shyam Sankar. His October 31 piece noting that we are in “an undeclared state of emergency” should be a must read to anyone who cares about the intersection of policy, technology and business in national security and beyond.

It is strategic leadership who prioritizes this and bluntly assesses not only what is needed to unleash innovation but wipe out what stands in its way. We are all in this together whatever politicians say. For innovation acceleration, all else is secondary.

People tell me more should have been done by now. That is sunk costs. Opportunity is in front of us now. Time is not our friend.

It may be an emblematic tale of our ever-unpredictable times that I was recently in India more broadly and Kashmir in particular just when India’s ascendancy on the world stage has seemed never greater.

For security reasons, I had no mobile or data access in Kashmir and there was an extensive military presence every other block in its capital Srinagar, I was assured that the region was never safer and more open for tourists. In fact, there were tens of thousands, mostly Indian, tourists wherever I went enjoying the magnificent history, culture, and mountain beauty of it all.

In my meetings with senior figures in government and business, Pakistan virtually never came up. People shrugged and as if to say there were just other priorities more important. One expert said to me, “We have four global concerns today: They are China, China, China and then keeping an eye on Pakistan.”

A week later, everything changed.

My three-week trip covered a lot of ground and included dozens of meetings with leaders across the intersection of policy, business and technology. My schedule across the country was anchored by an extraordinary Track 1.5 US-India-Europe Trilateral Forum hosted by The German Marshall Fund, sponsored by the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. As with every gathering hosted by Managing Director Bonnie Glaser and Garima Mohan, Senior Fellow of their Indo Pacific Program, conversations were intimate, candid, and driven toward action.

I am out of the prediction business, and these tensions – as all our tensions – continue to buzz right below the surface. At the same time, one need not have a crystal ball or be an expert in South Asia to note that this is a giant on the move and across its society.

To a person, it is clear that the country wants to be viewed as a defining global partner. They are or have the potential to be a key relationship in any geography. They argue persuasively that their fundamentals of size, economic growth and talent – especially in tech – are strong enough to overcome substantial problems of infrastructure, employment and security. There is a consistent, almost serene, view of this period of “global disorder” – we live in a “tarriffied world” one friend quipped – that the best thing is to deal with the world as it is, not as one wishes to have it. One senior official cracked me up with a line I will definitely steal: “For decades India was about NAM – non-aligned. Today we are polyamorous.”

I took a goal of having multiple partners as a cautionary notice that new dynamics may be forming between India and China. In a fascinating, long podcast between Lex Fridman and Prime Minister Modi earlier this year, the leader was ecumenical underscoring the importance of dialogue and cooperation. Despite ongoing tension and historic mistrust escalated in the China’s border actions in 2020, it was clear that there was, as one minister told me, an “evolving road map toward normalization but not reset.” Astoundingly, while potentially about to resume, for five years there have been no direct flights between the two.

One executive told me, “Look, business in China is for China. One must start by understanding this for what it is.” What it is for one expert on the Indo Pacific was very blunt: “I have met no one inside or outside India who believes that Delhi's relations with China could return to the status quo ante prior to June 2020. India has resumed interactions with China, but distrust will persist, and the border will remain a hurdle to true "normalization."

Many of the business people I met agree. At one level, there was a sense here as I hear often in Europe and in Latin America a concern of the build up of reliance on China’s markets and both excellent and low-cost products. Over 60% of chips in India are made in China – not Taiwan despite equal or better capabilities there. At the same time, Tik Tok has been banned, there are significant restrictions on Huawei and pressures on Xiaomi phones, BYD is a minor player as compared to local maker Tata Motors, and affordable China cars like Cherry not apparent at all.

India is proud of their building steps for national security vis a vis China with America and acting the part of global players – from being the first on the ground to support Myanmar in its tragic earth quake last March to its leadership in the partnership US-Australia-Japan-India Quad where they will host the Summit in 2025. One senior American official noted that India understands it is less about being anti-China than about being for the rest of the world. “In soft power, India has much greater potential than China globally.” Another noted, “India wants to be unshackled from China.”

India understands that it does not have the money to go toe-to-toe with the Chinese but can work around it. Specific and deliberate plans, especially bi-lateral trade agreements, are in motion from the Gulf (as many as 40% of the population of UAE is of Indian descent), to Brazil. They are thinking creatively about a post bellum order evolving in Russia should there be successful peace negotiations. There has been “a march” of EU and individual European countries and companies coming to India in the past year with, as one economist noted, “a renewed emphasis and palpable urgency to move forward.” Japan, especially for infrastructure, is opening greater dialogue. As Veda Vaidyanathan of the Center for Social and Economic Progress shows in detail the opportunity across Africa in critical minerals could not be more essential for India’s ambitions economically and sustainably. In all this, India has shown great ability in navigating complex geopolitical shoals – having, say, a defense tech deal with Israel while having other trade with Iran.

The enthusiasm for doing business with America, and the recent meetings with President Trump in particular, could not be much greater. In a world of tariffs, and dozens of countries vying for attention in Washington India has leaned in early and is “far forward” in negotiations – with serious and detailed proposals for a free-trade agreement in motion and on the table if still being debated. There is no doubt that pressure on supply chains and global re-assessment of China plays to their advantage. In recent weeks Apple’s Tim Cook announced their intention to move all manufacturing of iPhones for America to India. (President Trump may have different ideas.) As one investor told me admiringly of India in all the uncertainty, “The stakes have never been higher to be calm.”

India’s recent tech history is legion and well documented and still a work in progress. Outside of America and China, no country has had more tech IPOs than India in the last five years, but not a few remain a struggle. Advanced tech startups remain fewer and far between. One VC told me of the last 250 companies funded, perhaps 10 are in quantum. They know they lag on mature chips and, again, are heavily reliant on China for less sophisticated chip requirements. At the same time, some years ago India had no fabs, now they have six with extensive design capability and better equipment end-to-end. One chip entrepreneur smiled at me and said, “Dying are the days when India makes ice cream and China does chips.”

Fabs are not great job creators – still one of the most vexing challenges for India. However, back-end (where China does over 40% of the supply chain) and ecosystem parts and chemical manufacturing can be. A senior executive at TSMC reminded me in Taiwan last year as I noted here that money and investment is important in a chip strategy – but the highest quality ecosystem around the fabs are essential.

I appeared to stump even VC’s I met when I asked will India have its own DeepSeek moment. China’s ability to play apparent catchup in what appears to be genuinely open, advanced large language models beyond expectations of what many in Silicon Valley and the West thought possible. Was the act of this surprise an encouragement to innovators in India? Will there be an India version?

The answers came with nearly a shrug and raised eyebrows. There was more focus on detailed and significant answers to the importance of AI, the need for increased GPUs, possible opportunities in the wide diversity of languages. But the focus appeared more on building the infrastructure and especially energy access to enable it in India, and the services it could unleash. In some respects, also, was a sense that the “DeepSeek” moment was about leap-frog innovation – and that might be found in space and energy. One CTO warned me, “It’s good that India’s tractor manufacturer is the third largest supplier to the US. But that might not be good enough for the 21^st century.”

They are deservedly proud of their efforts in Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), which has created the most expansive platform and architecture for biometric and digital identity, real time mobile payments, secure cloud storage, and a series of APIs enabling paperless and cashless governance outside of China. They emphasize its openness as something that can be adopted by any other rising country and have had close discussions with Brazil whose Pix instant payments platform offered many lessons and potential for future co-authored innovation. Their ambition from this start is significant within India and beyond.

Weighing most significantly on opportunity is cumbersome regulation, as one CEO told me “If we do not deregulate we die.” Everyone had a story of some painful obstacle to getting things done. It is not that there hasn’t been debate at even the most practical level – will a tax code reflect opportunities to deployment of capital; will the Goods and Services Tax be made more efficient; can taxes be paid once a year rather than four times; can companies – especially tech innovators – fail easier and can investors more efficiently get their capital out.

It's that overall I found it nearly impossible to get clear answers on three focusing questions:

What current or new regulations most unleash leap frog innovation and how?

What current regulations well enforced require no new regulations?

What existing regulations killed would most drive growth?

I’m not sure many policy makers anywhere answer these well, but they are a good litmus test of how a growing nation is serious about taking its place in the 21^st century.

And yet there was also interesting discussion about shifts with three tail winds: the desire of the government to take its place as a leading global actor; the requirement, to that end, to take any ankle weights off of innovation especially around the massive energy requirements; and that regulatory reform was front and center in the February agreements between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi: Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology.

Most interesting to me, and I want to unpack in the coming months, is in the area of nuclear. I think Ashley Tellis of Carnegie summed it up well and I will quote at length:

“If Modi’s ambitions to make India a major semiconductor manufacturing center, a significant producer of green hydrogen, a generator of sophisticated indigenous artificial intelligence (AI) models, and an example of the benefits flowing from the large-scale shift toward electricity for transportation are to be realized—at a time when urbanization in India is rapidly increasing and climate change will increase the need for air conditioning dramatically—the Indian demand for increased quantities of reliable baseload power will only grow by leaps and bounds. In any event, India plans to increase the share of renewables in its energy basket substantially in the years to come. But because the energy that can be potentially sourced from renewables is currently estimated at no more than 1,000 GW, the balance—some 3,000 GW (or seven times the current installed capacity)—will have to derive from both fossil fuels and nuclear power, if India’s economic and climate mitigation goals are to be met by around mid-century.”

Of particular interest was discussion around Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) – innovative nuclear solutions, which top tech companies are exploring to deploy onsite to power their increasing power needs at data centers at lower risk and decidedly less burden on the environment. One attorney told me that there are regulations taking initial permitting down to three months – China like competitive – and small experiments may happen soon thereafter.

This blog and my experience and reflections focus primarily on the bottom-up – less the machinations of big government policy top down. And throughout my trip this was where I saw most hope across sectors.

I met a small young farmer in the Punjab who gave me a tutorial in the decades of top-down rules that required his grandfather and father to grow rice in lands not well suited for it in a region that doesn’t eat rice as a staple. Through his own gumption, analytics, taking graduate courses in agriculture decision making he will pivot his lands to fruit trees with an expectation to triple his income within three years.

I met many remarkable entrepreneurs like these “Drone Didis (sisters)” Bill Gates has recently written about – taking advantage of their entrepreneurial spirit but also a government program to train 15,000 young women in drone capabilities. The initial use will be in smart, data focused and green agricultural services like fertilizers. At the same time each woman knows they are building skills for the 21^st century and making new income as well.

I spent a day in the slums of Dharavi – a nearly two-million-person city of among the deepest poverty I’ve seen. Conditions are not significantly unchanged from when the great journalist Kate Boo chronicled her experiences in Annawadi in another part of Mumbai a decade ago in her book Behind the Beautiful Forevers. And yet I found, as she did, an energy to create something better there. My guide was a 22-year-old student, discovered by a teacher there and finishing a university degree in technology and about to start a master’s in AI. He will dedicate his life to using technology to help others find their paths there also.

As I wrote here about a recent trip to Saudi Arabia, nation’s often enter – by will or coincidence -- an era that they define as their time. It is something that can be felt at all levels, experiences, geographies and economic status. It is something that corruption, politicizing religion, and uneven access to opportunity will bury.

Nations don’t always grab these moments. No nation, as far as I can tell by my read of history, can capture them all.

Recent violence in India is a reminder of a moment’s fragility, and that time is rarely on the side of those who defer clear action and fail to deliver the goods.

This is India’s moment.

Time will tell.

For anyone who has doubts of what just happened, and if you read nothing else today:

"The world has awakened to the power of Deepseek, the rival to OpenAI’s Model o1 that has tech stocks reeling. I played around with Deepseek for a couple of hours yesterday, and I talked with a number of friends who are already using it to do some pretty advanced coding and problem solving.

Early this morning, Apollo’s Torsten Slok shared a new report from the Bank of Canada. He highlighted a simulation the Bank ran to assess the potential impact on Canada if the US imposes a 25% tariffs on all exports into the United States. The results show that Canadian GDP would decline by a whopping 6%.

I wondered whether Deepseek would come up with a similar estimate. So I asked it." Thanks to and - a must read overall.

The Lens

The Impact of 25% Tariffs on Canadian GDP

The world has awakened to the power of Deepseek, the rival to OpenAI’s Model o1 that has tech stocks reeling. I played around with Deepseek for a couple of hours yesterday, and I talked with a number of friends who are already using it to do some pretty advanced coding and problem solving…

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a year ago · 46 likes · 15 comments · Stephanie Kelton

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The Lens

The Impact of 25% Tariffs on Canadian GDP

The world has awakened to the power of Deepseek, the rival to OpenAI’s Model o1 that has tech stocks reeling. I played around with Deepseek for a couple of hours yesterday, and I talked with a number of friends who are already using it to do some pretty advanced coding and problem solving…

Read more

a year ago · 45 likes · 15 comments · Stephanie Kelton

I had the pleasure of just having a virtual dinner with Charles Hecker, a storied journalist with The Miami Herald and The Moscow Times who spent forty years travelling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia. In recent years he has been a geopolitical risk consultant at Control Risks.

He just published his highly reviewed new book about his experiences Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia. It is one part a cautionary historic telling of American and global business’ enthusiasm to go into the country after the fall of the Berlin War through today. But it has lessons for any seeking global opportunity in rapidly transforming business environments and worlds.

As we discussed his experiences, so much of it seemed like common sense. And yet, as I have reflected on my own years in global business (never, I should add, in Russia), I recognized almost every mistake and narrative bias as too often my own. In many ways the book is a glaring warning light to what we convince of ourselves as true and unchanging. So little is as true as we think and is constantly changing.

Charles underscored four key themes in his experience he has observed repeatedly:

1) Companies tend to look at countries as markets. Too often we overlook the truth that countries are political as well as geopolitical entities. Countries are vulnerable to internal and external shocks independent of their market to do business. He told me about one business leader who once said to him about his venture in emerging markets: “Geopolitics was bad, but business was good…” He smiled and added to me, “until it wasn’t.” When companies and investors talk about “EMEA”, or “ASIAPAC,” or “BRICS” and alike they are focusing too much on regional market dynamics and gloss over the collection of political entities that are at their core.

2) We make a series of assumptions before we invest, and when we get on the ground, we don’t update them - even as bright yellow or red flags appear. Too often executives tend to focus less on changes, which happen regularly, and don’t update views on places where we do business. A predictor of successes in global investment in these markets invariably is less what they thought entering, but how they changed as things changed. And yet confirmation bias, their own internal marketing and internal pressures often make challenging the initial assumptions difficult.

3) Companies don’t always have a unified view of their institutional appetites for risk – and different parts of companies often hear language differently. Sales and business development leaders often like risk and their bonuses and other incentives are based on this. Legal departments have a different incentive and assume their jobs are to ameliorate or attempt to avoid risk. Similarly, the local operational cultures can vary significantly – the appetite for risk in Finland operations may be culturally very different than for executives in Nigeria. Sectors, especially those with greater capital investment required and greater difficulty in exiting, will have other biases. Very few companies and even investors can stitch this all together well with a shared view and vocabulary of risk. Too often even when the same definitions are used, different actors interpret different meanings.

4) Competition and external pressures are regularly misunderstood. Hecker told me how often he would see a company decide Russia was not for them, but once they saw a competitor go in there was almost an immediate change in discussion; that now they cannot “afford” to not be in Russia. Competitive analysis is not inconsequential but sticking to first principles is often the right path. Those who then jump in often lose any first mover advantage and have significant costs in running to catch up. Even today, he regularly has clients asking what a competitor may do in Russia, or Ukraine, or China etc. focusing on waiting for their competition to do it first.

He makes a compelling case that Russia is a perfect storm and case study for these themes.

In 1991 almost a meme like conventional wisdom built on Russia. Executives knew there was uncertainty, but at the same time there were billions of rubles in mattresses and large enterprises wanting western goods. Everyone had their analysis of potential market size and growth, and they were all up and to the right. Russia was looked at as a market – in fact the best and hottest emerging market (even before the Goldman Sachs branding of the BRICS). Everyone thought the West had “won” and globalism was in ascendency. Policy makers and think tanks added their beliefs that economic growth would bring greater democracy and rule of law. Many executives thought there was a mission not only of profit but a near missionary zeal to this end. One simply could not get a business class seat to Russia then. At yet, that politics was in a state of disarray, rule of law non-existent, weighed less in consideration especially with the amount of “smart” capital and competitors plowed in.

These assumptions were too rarely re-asked after 2000 with Putin’s rise. In fact, many executives made Putin the latest step in their market narrative. He had, after all, a “law and order” background and was viewed as a significant improvement from the uncertainty and personal foibles of his predecessor Yeltsin. He represented strength and stability and was good at both. The evidence against this was slow, and even seeming imperceptible. In word and deed, he made clear he was against the western dominated political/economic system. In 2014 with his Crimea and now Ukraine his world view on his premises, not ours, were unarguable.

Hecker’s book unpacks the why in all this, and the lessons are legion. Certainly, narrative bias and even FOMO is at the foundation of this. Too often globally minded companies and investor’s structure themselves to confirm this bias. So many executives are sent into local markets for tours of duty as they rise internally. Just as they start to understand in-country realities changing, or delve into invaluable nuance, four years in they are transferred to somewhere else.

The companies that best navigated Russia and their global ambitions generally focused less on the “market” opportunity and more on the shifting local and political realities. They were able to develop long-term local expertise, trust and delegate to them intensely, locally, bottom up. It is in hindsight no surprise that international companies whose products required significant “localization” – say luxury goods and automotive – Russia became one of their best markets with the most trusted local leadership, where the Western narrative was quickly replaced by the local narrative. This is harder to do than it appears. Expat bias still had to be challenged, functions like auditing tended to be headquartered in the West. But these were the enterprises that did well. They are the ones poised best to re-enter if they re-enter as political circumstances change.

So, what does any of this mean if and when the War stops (in Russia and elsewhere in the world?)

Hecker argues that in the case of Russia we should not forget how much it matters to the global economy. If you are an oil company, in natural resources more broadly, certainly in agriculture it is and will be a significant actor. It is still a major player in aviation and component parts for many countries. It is a country of size and demand essential for economic growth over time, especially in Europe. And, we should never forget, it has the largest number of nuclear weapons. There is opportunity here that should not be lost in the what is now its own and more negative narrative bias.

As interesting as the potential lessons learned also are how much today is different.

As I wrote here, American business and policy making is still appreciating that unlike in 1991 all countries have an unprecedented access to product and business choice. This is not just about the obvious rise of China and their pro-active and strategic engagement country by country as well as regionally, but significant offerings from nations across Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America and Africa for themselves and in global trade. In a world of choice, the assumptions of 1991 are almost irrelevant. This may tap down, or keep honest, any instinct to narrative bias of Western preference. If nothing else, it reminds us that in the end the best way to compete is to compete – and consumers and their countries will have their say.

Hecker told me an interesting story to this point. He noted that Moscow has five major airports, one is the oldest north of the city with an enormous highway from there to the center of town. The closer you get to the city it is covered by automotive car dealerships from around the world. Unlike a few years ago, nearly ALL are Chinese car dealerships. Substitutes from China in particular but elsewhere has changed the dynamics significantly. Russia students are going to Chinese universities and companies.

So as western business considers going “back to Russia” or entering any country, it must understand what has changed. How do you recapture market-share lost if you have been replaced by equal or better product? What is the consumer and business sentiment to “welcome” one back? If your company hasn’t had talent on the ground for some years, how do you attract it? Might it be safer, even preferable now, to work for a Chinese company?

Technology and tech services change what it means to enter a country. On the one hand, a Netflix or Amazon Prime can launch in 100 nations in a day. Their “localization” is less about feet on the ground, but the data of what users want – instructing what can be leveraged of existing product and offer almost perfect data on what might be the next film to create. And yet even here how to market, who are the social media influencers, what various parts of a country may want different than an others still suggest the need for bottom-up on-the-ground building. On the other hand, there is evidence that local political power bases will not simply stand by and let outsiders set the rules. Anyone who thought fintech companies could be regional or global quickly has many wounds of the buzz saws of each country demanding their regulatory and marketing say.

I found the most provocative Heckers argument that the worlds of forecasting are now dead. Putting percentages on outcomes are over. In fact, and in hindsight, even the most forecast-focused companies still missed so much. It has always been a waste of time to seek black swans which cannot be forecast. The best way to compete is to compete. And companies need to focus on competing without predictions and forecasts but a spectrum of scenarios/pictures of the future and testing their organizations against those scenarios.

These are learnings for what we experienced and should consider in the future of Russia. But these are lessons and questions for how the most successful enterprises will engage globally from now on.

I lived many wonderful years backwards in 2024 with superb books. But I start with a confession.

The elections around the world and constantly and surprisingly changing times had me head down in my WhatsApp and Signal groups and social media in ways I had previously thought impossible. I am not a doom-scroller per se, but the algorithms do know me and the price was likely dozens of more books unread. My new year’s resolution is to nip this behavior in the bud. A momentous year is in the offing, so we shall see.

With that off my chest, it was nearly impossible to pick “favorites” this year, but here are a few that jumped out. The rest of are linked below my top choices, worth a scan to see what might interest you. I have linked to my friend Mary Beth Manion’s glorious Middleburg Books – easy to order from, and well worth a visit if you are in the DC area. I love Amazon, but love supporting local book sellers more.

American History and Society:

William Hoagland’s The Hamilton Scheme is a superb look at Hamilton, Robert Morris and a cast of characters shaping our national economic and political identity. I thought I had understood our founding decently, and this book reminded me how little I understood, or is caught as cliché in my mind. Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario reminds a generation that may think we moved on from this risk that it, in fact, has never been more serious. It is an undroppable read and I’m thrilled that a Netflix version is in the works. Chris Rufo’s America’s Cultural Revolution: How the Radical Left Conquered Everything

is a provocative, data-filled sweep of recent political history that is a good first stop in unpacking America’s elections. Bruno Macaes History Has Begun; The Birth of a New America, steps back with a broader look at American history and reinvention, arguing we are in a very new model for the United States now and likely forever. David Petraeus and Andrew Roberts are among the go-to’s for me to unpack often painful and contradictory lessons in our global engagements we seem hell-bent to too often ignore. I hope everyone serving in global affairs reads, and re-reads, Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine. To end on a more serene note, Patrick Bringley’s All the Beauty in the World is the journey of a one-time New Yorker writer who in a family catastrophe became a guard at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City. It is a beautiful reminder of this extraordinary space and its impact.

Antiquity:

I delved deeply into the Roman Republic this year, including spending my birthday touring the battle area of Cannae in Southern Italy. Few are in the league of Mary Beard, and her latest Emperor of Rome is a tour de force on the emperors’ social and political machinations. Adrian Goldsworth books on this period below are wonderful, but I loved almost every page of the original historian of this period Polybius and his The Histories. He self-described as a “pragmatic historian,” and while no doubt with its own errors, he physically retraced the Punic Wars traveling on the ground and interviewed many veterans. Cicero’s On Duties is my favorite of his surviving writings, dating from the end of his life – perhaps a more humble period for him - unpacking individual, moral obligations in service and life. Anyone who goes into public service should read it. Clearly few actually do.

China:

I loved everything I read this year, but the old classic by Carl Crow, 400 Million Customers, is a riveting, funny and insightful look at China in 1937, with surprising cultural relevance occasionally today. One of my favorites this year was my friend Nick Griffin’s Ping Pong. It is strange history of the game and its essential role in US/China negotiations at that time, and I have wondered if there are any soft-power breakthroughs possible today. I love the perspectives on China from Australians, and few more so than Kevin Rudd. His new On Xi Jinping comes from direct experience and extensive study, and I find his one of the best perspectives on China today. Please pre-order Emily Feng’s richly personal, beautifully written new book on how the Chinese government controls the view of identity, Let Only Red Flowers Bloom.

Europe:

I’ve given out two dozen copies of Oscar Jonsson’s, The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring Lines Between War and Peace . It is one of the best reads of the year and underscores how info war is now part of the essence of war. Peter Apps’ Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO is a comprehensive, very readable history of NATO and compelling look at what is to come. Frank McDonogh’s The Weimar Years is superb on the period, also arguing the Depression did cause Hitler in large part due to incompetent governance for years. One of the best teachers I ever had was Tim Ryback and his Takeover: Hitler’s Final Rise to Power is a superb, detailed, beautifully written step-by-step of the months of Hitler becoming Chancellor. Stepping back in time, few write and research as well as Hampton Sides. The Wide Wide Sea is a wonderfully written book about Cook’s last voyage as a lens to England and Europe in the 18^th century.

Fiction:

Full stop: John Steinbecks East of Eden was recommended to me by one of my favorite readers and described it as his favorite book. I see why. Also, it is the scariest portrayal of a psychopath I have read in fiction or the news.

On Leadership and Business:

I wish I had this when I was a CEO. They are generous and unarguable lessons from one of the great builders in Latin America and the US, Gustavo Cisneros. Challenges are our Business should be taught in every business and policy school, and it is also is a profound history of the region over the last 50 years.

The Middle East:

Appropriate in our times, re-reading Ghassan Kanafani’s Men in the Sun and Other Palestinian Stories

are all painfully moving, beautifully written and among the best short stories of a literary genius.

Theology, Spirituality, Health and Deeper Outlook:

John Sellars’ Lessons in Stoicism is a pithy, provocative look at Epictetus, Marcus Aurelius and Seneca with superb summaries and actionable. (FWIW Marcus Aurelius remains on my end table for regular reflections). Rainer Maria Rilke’s Book of Hours – Love Poems to God are beautiful reflections, verses and look at spiritual priorities, God, and love in an increasingly secular world. Appropriately Rilke’s work was an inspiration to this marvelous and important pre-order. My friend Elizabeth Weingarten’s How to Fall in Love with Questions: New Way to Thrive in Uncertainty is a deeply personal look at embracing the process of questioning and understanding and will be out early next year.

Vietnam:

I spent a month in this extraordinary country and shared my reflections here. All that I read below was superb, but for the War I will call out William Prochnau’s Once Upon a Distant War which is a brilliant, wonderfully written look at early days of US involvement through journalists who covered it. It was the 70^th Anniversary of Dien Bien Phu, one of the most consequential battles of the 20^th century and all but forgotten. Soldier historian Bernard Fall’s Hell in a Very Small Place remains one of the best detailed looks of the catastrophe and lessons of the battle (all but ignored by those who followed). Christopher Goscha’s Vietnam: A New History is an excellent one volume history of Vietnam from the beginning. I read many beautiful novels from Vietnamese authors below – all excellent. Duong Thu Huong’s Novel Without a Name stood slightly out as a breathtaking fictional account of coming of age fighting for the North Vietnamese.

Each year I rely very heavily on some of the best readers I know, and this year was no exception – easily half of my list came from others I admire. Forgive me if I’ve forgotten anyone, but there is no gift greater than sharing one’s time and insight. Thank you to:

Lan Ahn, Herb Allen, Marc Andreessen, Bill Bishop, Marcus Brauchli, Ed Bolen, Elizabeth Bolen, Laura Latham Bremer, Connie Chan, Christina Chua, Sandy Coburn, James Crabtree, Suzy Fry, Bonnie Glaser, Michael Gottdenker, Thao Griffiths, Marc Grossman, Hans Ilis-Alm, Keya Krishna, Vivian Moore, Michael Morrell, Evan Osnos, Sarah Pasetto, Tim Ryback, Shane Sager, Jack Schroeder, Robert Zoellick

Again, the rest below are all wonderful as they strike your interest.

American History and Society:

Caroline Alexander, Skies of Thunder: The Deadly WW II Mission Over the Roof of the World

Mind blowing tale of the air efforts during the China, Burma India forgotten part of the War.

Sonny Barger, Freedom: Credos from the Road

Fifty lessons from a veteran, biker, convicted felon – blunt principles and perspective.

Lesley M. M. Burton, Fallout: The Hiroshima Cover-up and Reporter Who Revealed It

Interesting backstory to how Hersey’s famous article, Hiroshima, came about and its aftermath.

Craig Fehrman, Author in Chief: The Untold Story of our Presidents and the Books They Wrote

Sensational survey not only of their writings, but how they read, and how we read at the times.

Francis Fukuyama, Liberalism and its Discontents

A short thoughtful look, from 2022, of the state of classic liberalism and its challenges today.

Martin Gurri, The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millenium

I think about this book daily; arguing we are in a cycle of negation politically and its historic context.

Rob Henderson, Troubled

Personal memoir of impossible odds rising from foster families to success and reflections of the US today.

John Hersey, Into the Valley: A Skirmish of the Marines (Guadalcanal)

Beautiful read (I believe first published in Time then) by one of the great writers of the 20^th century.

Vicki Huddleston, Our Woman in Havana; Diplomat’s Chronicle of America’s Long Struggle with Cuba

Interesting, perhaps too ego-filled, memoir sharing insight especially from Bush to today. Learned a lot.

John Iannarelli, Disorderly Conduct: Oddities in My 20-Year Life as an FBI Special Agent

Anecdotal, eye-opening, funny, hard look at a career in the FBI.

Adam Higginbotham, Challenger: A True Story of Heroism and Disaster on the Edge of Space

Like a spy novel and excellent history of the space program. Riveting and heart breaking.

Lt. General Gerald Johnson, Called to Command

Memoir of a “three banger” officer served in WW II, Korea and Vietnam; a history of the air force also.

Robert Kagan, The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, 1900-1941

Tempting to find patterns then and today, but a good survey that makes clear many differences.

H. Keith Melton, Robert Wallace, Official CIA Manual of Trickery and Deception

Fascinating piece of cold war history; instruction manual to counter Soviet interrogation techniques.

David Sanger, New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion and America Struggle to Defend the West

Readable, timely, essential overview of the intersection of global issues and how close to home they are.

Evan Thomas, Road to Surrender: Three Men and the Countdown to the End of World War II

Breezily, popularly written but fascinating step by step to the days building up to Hiroshima.

Robert Zoellick, Selected Speeches and Articles

Predictive and elegant collection by one of the great actors who shaped much of today’s economic order.

Antiquity:

Jospeh Addison, Cato: A Tragedy

Perhaps no play had more influence on our founders outside of Shakespeare and the ancients themselves.

Hugh Elton, Understanding Ancient Battle: Combat in the Classical World from Unit Commanders

Superb brief read on how ancient battles were fought, perspective from case studies of the ground.

Adrian Goldsworthy, Cannae: Hannibal’s Greatest Victory

Best one volume on the battle outside of the primary sources.

Adrian Goldsworth, The Fall of Carthage: The Punic Wars

To be read before his book on Cannae, may be the best one volume popular history I have found.

Adrian Goldsworthy, In the Name of Rome

Excellent overview of the Rise of the Roman Empire through its most successful generals.

BH Liddell Hart, Scipio Africanus: Greater than Napolean

A definite older look at one of the great figures of the Punic Wars. Astounding leader.

Richard Miles, Carthage Must be Destroyed

This too is a superb one volume, but particularly leans on Carthage – where so much still is unknown.

China:

Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia

Provocative assessment the failure of our pivot and the rise of China today.

Tania Branigan, Red Memory: The After lives of China’s Cultural Revolution

Superb look at the Cultural Revolution from those a part of if 50 years late.

Aaron Friedberg, Getting China Wrong

Good overview of what we have misunderstood about China on it and Xi’s terms.

Nick Hordern, Shanghai Demimondaine: From Sex Worker to Society Matron

One part spy story, one part captivating look at Shanghai in the build up to the war.

Sulmaan Wasif Khan, The Struggle for Taiwan: America, China and the Island Caught Between

Good one volume introduction to the history, context and tradeoffs of where we are today.

Maxine Hong Kingston, China Men

Astounding history/novel of Chinese men and their experienced in America. National Book Award.

Louisa Lim, The People’s Republic of Amnesia

Eye-opening account of Tiananmen, plus crack down in Chengdu, and lessons of memory and repression.

Yuan Yang, Private Revolutions: Four Women Face China’s New Social Order

Superb insight into China over the last two decades through astounding/brave women

Europe:

Philipp Blom, The Vertigo Years: Europe 1900-1914

Beautifully written tour of society, politics, art and science and more building to the catastrophe.

Wolfram Eilenberger, The Visionaries: Arendt, Beauvoir, Rand and Weil – Philosophy in Dark Times

A tour of what shaped these minds, coming to terms with a world in transition and War.

Christopher Guilluy, Twilight of the Elites: Prosperity, the Periphery and Future of France

Breath taking and provocative look at the gulf between metropolitan elites and working class.

Soren Lily, Unfortunate Ends: On Murder and Misadventure in Medieval England

Wonderful look at real people and daily life through death in the 12^th-15^th century.

Nick Lloyd, Forgotten Places: Barcelona and the Spanish Civil War

Superb history, and also touring guide to the city during the civil war (Nick is a great guide also).

William March, Company K

One of the great, lesser known novels on WW I soldier experience, staggering actually.

Marcin Piatkowski, Europe’s Growth Champion: Insights from the Economic Rise of Poland

Written in 2018 but absolutely outstanding context for where we are in Poland today and its direction.

Keith Thomson, Paradise of the Damned: The True Story of an Obsessive Quest for El Dorado

I could not put this down; astounding look at Raleigh and the personal battles to find Gold.

Andreas Viestad, Dinner in Rome: A History of the World in One Meal

A marvelous, reflective, well experience travel essay/history of food in Rome from antiquity to today.

Fiction, Literature and Writing:

JM Coetzee, Waiting for the Barbarians

Stunning novel of the brutality of apartheid, where a local magistrate gets sucked into realities of empire.

Umberto Eco, Serendipities

Wonderful essays, not fiction but literary, on the power of the unexpected in science, the arts, and society.

Monika Helfer, Library for the War-Wounded

Thoughtful exploration of how little we know of our parents and their surprises.

David Ignatius, Phantom Orbit

How this legendary journalist also writes stunning fiction, in deep science (space war here) astounding.

David McCloskey, Damascus Station

Riveting, realistic spy drama of the terrible crisis in Syria at the time of the Arab uprisings.

Deirdre Nansen McCloskey, Economical Writing: 35 Rules for Clear and Persuasive Prose

I’ve added this book to Strunk and White; marvelous reminder of how sloppy my writing is.

Friedrich Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

The epic look at the power of the individual – often misquoted and misconstrued by others.

Joseph Roth, The Radetzky March

Stunning novel of three generations of men at the twilight of the Austro-Hungarian empire.

John Steinbeck, Journey of a Novel

Letters to his editors WHILE writing East of Eden. Having read the novel, just fascinating.

Kurt Vonnegut, Slaughterhouse-Five

Have not read since high school, and it is marvelous, funny, tragic, brilliant.

Leadership and Business:

Lionel Sim, The AI Selling Revolution: Unlocking AI-Powered Strategies and Winning Sales

A social media friend, always insightful, wrote this breezy and very useful guide.

The Middle East:

Ghassan Kanafani, Men in the Sun and Other Palestinian Stories

Painfully moving, beautifully written and among the best short stories of a literary genius.

Theology, Spirituality, Health and Deeper Outlook:

Peter Attia, Outline: The Science and Art of Longevity

Fascinating, data-filled analysis (not how-to) of maximizing our health, but not extending life brutally.

Mark Manson, Everything if F*cked: A Book About Hope

One part Kant, Buddha, Durkheim, Stoics and more – superb, readable on our times and biases.

Kevin Mitchell, Free Agents

A bit technical in neuroscience, but meticulous building from science on how and that we have free will.

Terrence Real, I Don’t Want to Talk About It: Secret Legacy of Male Depression

Powerful, data-filled one volume on insight, stigma, guidance in the ongoing debate on Depression

Carl Scovel, How the Cross Came Out of the Crucifixion

He may be one of the great pastors outside of Boston many do not know; superb, contextual reflections.

John Stumbo, God in You: A Conversation

A short reflection – an encouragement and exhortation really – of one’s conversation with faith.

Vietnam:

Mark Bowden, Hue 1968

Brutal, comprehensive, richly detailed look at the formative battle and pivotal year of the War.

John Colvin, Volcano Under Snow

Good biography of the extraordinary Vietnamese General Vu Nguyen Giap

Bernard Fall, Street Without Joy

Riveting, early look at the failure of the French in Vietnam, by one of the leading participants/historians.

Christopher Goscha, The Road to Dien Bien Phu

Definitive read on the build up to the end of French colonialism from World War II through the battle.

Duong Thu Hong, Paradise of the Blind

A journey of three women seeking their dignity and agency under political and cultural machinations.

Martin Love, The Girl from Ha Giang

Novel of intrigue and espionage in Vietnam over a decade ago – poorly written, interesting moments.

Karl Marlantes, What it is Like to go to War

The great Marine wrote this second, personal, non-fiction intimately reflecting on this experience.

Nathaniel Moir, Number One Realist: Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare

Definitive bio to date of one of the great speakers of truth to power; needed editing but fascinating.

Vu Trong Phung, Dumb Luck

Published in 1936, banned until 1986, humorous, serious satire of life, luck and society – resonates today.

Nguyen Huy Thiep, Crossing the River

Beautiful collection of short stories, focused on Vietnam in the last decades but familiar themes for all.

Dang Thuy Tram, Last Night I Dreamed of Peace: Diary of Dang Thuy Tram

Beautiful, poignant journal of a young doctor with the Vietcong in a field hospital for four years.

(Cartoon, L Pinn, The Financial Times)

A few years ago, a good friend hosted what to this day was one of the most interesting discussions I’ve witnessed on China.

What in the cacophony of hawk and dove endless panels did he do differently?

He had no one from America, let alone Washington. He had, instead, world class actors who have known China for decades NOT from the United States – but from Singapore, Latin America and global business more broadly. Their lens, more bottom-up, experienced on the ground, seeking neither Thucydides Trap academic or Cold War frameworks, and having a LOT of data was eye opening throughout.

In all my travels, and in much of what I have tried to convey in this blog, the perspectives I am blessed to hear and see are not only about the countries I am in, but their world views. I’m asked often what, generally, do I get to understand in all my work that so many miss especially in America and there are many lessons. But, overall, I think we – from Washington, DC to Silicon Valley – have the hardest time appreciating a world that has choice.

Not choice for choice’s sake. Choice of world-class product, service and price.

I was recently in Riyadh speaking to many business executives, and no one wanted to talk about War or our elections. They wanted to talk about opportunity, about millions of tourists who will be coming, that their time had come, that they in many services well beyond oil could be the global choice.

And they wanted to talk about China. To a person.

Every industry had its own nuance, but what I heard repeatedly was some version of this: We have a long history with America and have enjoyed that overall; we want our kids to go to American Universities; we all love Taylor Swift. But, they would ask me, do Americans understand how good China is as business partners? “They take us seriously, really listen to what our needs are and try to address them, offer superb design and manufacturing, offer world class, Four Seasons like customer service – often at 30% less.”

I pushed on this here as I have in other parts of the world. You are considering building nuclear facilities and in your global bidding are you really going to take a Chinese operator over, say, France? You are considering putting your data in the cloud, have you no concerns over Ali Cloud vs. AWS?

It’s not the words I hear back that intrigue me, but the universal facial expressions: they shake their heads, squint their eyes in puzzlement and say: “Why not?”

Many American friends in business and government dismiss this as anecdotal. For all the talk of turning inward, America’s economic footprint in the world including rising markets has never been larger.

I think both may be true. But if you had to project the trend lines, I am less sure. As one leading Singapore official once said to me, “The best way for America to compete in the world is to compete. The advantages you think of as your birth right may remain strong – but in a world of choice you have to deliver the goods reliably and consistently – and affordably – in the face of for you may be unprecedented competition.”

A world projected where America fights regulatory capture and emphasizes an unleashing of its innovation and competitive advantage may be just this. How that world plays out in an era of tariffs and pushing back on one unique asset we have in the world of choice – decades long alliances – time will tell.

But we should walk with care in our presumption of how the world of choice sees us today, compounded by decades where we have acted like we were the best, if not only, choice.

A good friend from Singapore shared with me this study, The Rising Role of Chinese Firms in Southeast Asia’s Automotive Supply Chains, which is, despite its dull title, a fascinating, data-filled look at shifts in resources, supply chains, chips, innovation and policy in China and Southeast Asia. And it focuses heavily on the latter’s views the former. Like that China gathering I opened with, I find the perspective of Southeast Asia on China riveting, and one we too often ignore.

Even for those who study the worlds of EV and auto far more closely than I – which is to say pretty much everyone who follows the world of EV and auto – the data, focus and trends from this part of the world are eye opening. For those who chortle that China will sink under its own weight of central planning, there is much to consider.

A few examples:

In 2024 China was home to almost 100% of the world’s installed production capacity for lithium iron phosphate batteries used in EVs, and over 75% for nickel-based batteries. It has accounted for almost all of the global production of battery components with massive dominance in installed manufacturing of key components. Two Chinese companies have over half of the global market share for EV batteries. It is clear here, as I wrote about my recent experience at TSMC, that dominating the ecosystem of minerals, parts and other suppliers, with an enormous market at home and in rising parts of the world is not only competitive advantage but all but ensures pricing decreases in manufacturing with time.

And these ecosystems are not merely Chinese, but regional partners. For example, the Philippines and Indonesia are nearly 60% of the global nickel output, with the Philippines being a significant exporter to China. Indonesia, with over a fifth of the worlds’ nickel reserves, is dominated by Chinese investment in processing facilities there. Malaysia is playing an ever-increasing leadership role in electronics and joins Indonesia and Thailand in battery manufacturing. Thailand, in fact, is significant in full vehicle manufacturing, and world class related R&D is found in Singapore. Regulatory restraints in America have slowed down our investments in automotive here – reasonable as some on environment and safety may be – but has pushed us to seek higher cost alternatives. Southeast Asia is hardly standing still or waiting.

They have choice.

It’s a good read. In fact, it is worth quoting the conclusion in some detail:

If ASEAN countries want to participate in EV production and move quickly with the green transition, there is no alternative to involving Chinese firms. As this paper describes, this is already a reality across the region’s EV supply chain. At the time of writing, there were few indications that Chinese automotive OEMs, components and systems suppliers would be shut out of major automotive markets except for the US. There too uncertainty remains, with Donald Trump floating his openness to Chinese OEMs manufacturing in the US during his re- election campaign.

Even if Chinese firms eventually face significantly reduced market access across the advanced economies, they will likely retain access to growing markets in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.

In India, the Modi government’s latest economic survey described integration with Chinese firms as “inevitable” if domestic manufacturing goals are to be achieved.175 In 2024, under pressure from domestic industry, the Indian government started to again approve investment proposals from Chinese firms in the electronics manufacturing sector.

Within ASEAN, the EV market’s average compound annual growth in the six biggest economies was recently estimated at up to 39 per cent from 2021 to 2035, when annual sales may reach US$100 billion.

Another recent study forecast that among Southeast Asia’s six largest economies, by 2024 EVs may constitute 56 per cent of total vehicle sales, requiring a cumulative investment in charging infrastructure of over $US3 billion. Meeting such growth in demand for EVs and supporting infrastructure over the coming years will require Chinese involvement.

ASEAN states cannot expect their firms to be equal players in this sector, or to be insulated from conflict over it between China, the US and others. But they can extract much value from plugging into the EV supply chain, without committing to opposing camps that are defined by the perceived interests of non-ASEAN nations. As a region with severe air pollution that sits on the front line of destructive and accelerating climate change, Southeast Asia would be ill-advised to take a course that slows down the green energy transition, globally or at home.

One smart American friend said to me, “Look Chinese dominance in EV and Solar Panels are exceptions, and we will see over time how this plays out as America remains ahead in innovation.”

Maybe.

When I was in the Gulf, I saw lovely $7,000 cars – NOT EVs, cars. I asked a local executive what he thought of them. “Regular people are buying them up.” I asked if they were any good. He paused and smiled and said, “At $7,000 one can go through three of them and that will still be cheaper than most of the competition….” He added, “But they are reliable and beautiful also.”

I have no crystal balls, except to say however these uncertain times play out the world – especially the newest entrants to the global economy – will have more choice. From China and India. And from themselves.

There is enormous opportunity for those who embrace this reality and … compete.

Blessed Hualien, by Hsin-yueh Lin - 2010

The word “resilience” is often in the eye of the beholder – and in geopolitics and global trade one nation’s “resilience” may be another’s provocation. It was this word and balance that was front in center in an extraordinary week I spent in Taiwan last month.

I was hosted with a small delegation led by The German Marshall Fund and the dynamic leader of its Indo-Pacific program, Bonnie Glaser. For anyone familiar with China and the region, she is something of a legend. One indication of her decades long and often courageous analysis is that when she raised her hand to ask a question, pretty much everyone from Taiwan smiled and said, “Uh oh, here comes a hard one.”

And perhaps it is only her credibility that had us in front of the most senior leadership of the current and former governments, defense and national security, and business and economic juggernauts and innovators from TSMC to a host of leading tech innovators and American business representatives.

The takeaways are legion, but four themes really stuck with me.

1)      Our proclivity to think of today’s hotspots individually – War in Ukraine there, War in the Middle East over there, tension with China way over there and more – miss the essential intersection and interconnectedness of it all.

Our delegation had senior, experienced figures from national security in Europe, and it was clear that they and our hosts could not get enough of each other in discussing the shared learning and similarities between the situation in Ukraine and Taiwan. In fact, people were uniform from both the public and private sector that the more interaction and integration with friendly democratic countries ensured greater stability in the region.

Both the Europeans and the Taiwan leaders believe they are fighting for shared values of democracy, rule of law and respect for global institutions. Both are worried about military asset constraints and their ability to have access to the stingers, drones and other weapons they may require. Both are pushing to be leaders in the newest technologies of defense. Both understand that information war as part of the essence of war is a new reality. In fact, we met with experts on how AI is changing the dynamics of fake news at a scale and inability to detect that make both Taiwan and Ukraine at the front lines of this innovation. One tech executive told us that “Cyber security IS national security.”

And events in the region more broadly – recent tensions with the Philippines, a US alliance partner with obligations for us to come to their defense – cannot be understood without the context of what is happening in Taiwan.

The differences in the circumstances are stark. Obviously, Taiwan is not at war. China is not Russia, and the conflicts are decidedly different. The distinctions strategically and tactically of an Island versus a physical border nation are significant. The global stakes are much different economically – Taiwan is the 9^th largest trading partner of the US, Ukraine the 67^th. Taiwan’s second top trading partner after America IS China. The global economy is utterly reliant on Taiwan chips and simply cannot diversify fast or extensively as technology is also regularly and rapidly evolving. This may be the most important intersection of all.

2)      Despite significant tension among the two political parties in Taiwan, both repeat their commitment to “never be the provoker nor escalate tensions even optically” with China.

Yet for all the talk that Taiwan will pursue a policy that is “agile, open and pragmatic,” there is no doubt that both China’s military war gaming and info war has set everyone on edge. We were told repeatedly that the essence of the latter is focused on sowing chaos and divisiveness within Taiwan and instilling a sense of psychological despair in Taiwan’s future as an entity both connected and separate from China. One national security leader told us that “Numbness is the first step to the next step.”

And at the same time, the previous leading party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and the current in-power Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have distinctly different language and approaches – the former wanting to enhance engagement with China and accusing the latter of dangerously inciting cross-Strait tensions. The DPP knows that their efforts towards “resilience” will be viewed as provocative – that both China and the KMT will say they are “preparing for war” – but whether in preparation for defending against future aggression or stronger typhoons their power and electricity grids simply are vulnerable, as are their infrastructure, transportation capabilities and banking systems. This will require greater civilian and military cooperation which in and of itself will be viewed as provocative. For the moment, even with aggressive posturing and language, the DPP assured us they are committed to “No surprises; No provocation.”

3)      A plan for resilience – better late than never?

I was struck that a more concrete, detailed plan of resilience really commenced after the past election in January. This is not to say that there were no defensive activities in place, but the public prioritization with specific themes and priorities is at a heightened place. There is no doubt that critical infrastructure is a central concern, and prioritization over access to power, water, air, telecom and communications (roaming capabilities, data back up and alternatives to Starlink) are front and center.

The government has outlined publicly six priorities, including both military and civil strategies:

1. To increase its defense budget to 3% of its GDP, emphasizing innovation and modernization.

2. To leverage public-private collaboration, especially in tech and military innovation.

3. To expand civil defense, creating greater integration with local planning.

4. To strengthen infrastructure, increasing investment especially in their ports and supply chain.

5. To train for technological defense, focusing on technology-savvy capabilities

   and personnel.

6. To think about civil defense holistically, integrating all sectors of society in their strategy.

All are logical as far as they go, but the devil is in the details and questions linger. How prepared are they should their emergency response capabilities like their 711 number come down?  How much business continuity is in place? Is their partnership and definition of the role of the private sector well defined? Do they have the budget to do what is required? Do they have the manpower? Are there clear metrics and timetables for what they want to achieve? How does one know if they are “resilient?” Is one ever fully resilient? (It made me wonder, are we?)

A new film series has been created there called Zero Day, a 17-minute trailer worth watching here. It is a Netflix-like TV production drama premised on a possible invasion from the PLA in China. The series is due to be released early next year. I’m not sure where it will fall in the navigation of preparedness without provocation. But it is clearly getting significant attention there and will focus people’s attention on what an aggressive scenario may look like and what steps individuals and families could take to prepare.

4)      Is business voting with its feet?

For this uncertainty one would think that business would be reserved and a bit back on its heels about investing more in Taiwan, but that is not what we heard. The American Chamber of Commerce there noted that the number of foreign business delegations coming through the island this year has been up nearly four-fold. AWS announced a $10 billion investment for data centers here. Google and Microsoft have continued to expand operations, especially in research, Micron with their advanced fab.  “They certainly have scenarios and plans for a Plan B, but they are here and rising,” one executive said to me.

New opportunity in the new environment, according to Taiwanese, are many especially where they support their resilience agenda. In energy, as part of their resilience plans, they welcome businesses that can help them build smaller smart grids, diversify into renewables, explore geothermal opportunities, offshore turbines and more. Considering increased cyber security threats, they seek investment and expertise to strengthen any vulnerability. Defense tech, satellite capabilities, logistics and AI innovation will find increased market demand and structural and tax incentives available. The United States and EU remain recently the largest investors there. But they are welcoming investment from across Asia more broadly, especially Japan, Korea and Australia.

Investment reflects a significant shift in Taiwan’s role in supply chains more broadly. As one long-time investor there explained, “This includes in advanced materials (plastics, chemicals, steel, cement, etc.), machine tools, biotechnology and medical products, ICT products and networking, automotive parts, renewable energy products such as for solar and wind, and more. Also, Taiwan's shipping and transportation industries includes major container and bulk shippers such as Evergreen that are key players.”

The need for US firms to continue to invest in Taiwan is also true for data centers and increasingly AI, as Taiwan firms as OEMs/ODMs for the server industry play a critical role in those supply chains too. However, the issue of sufficient energy will increasingly determine whether they scale up here or not. One executive told me, “The Taiwan government may have to restrict the opening of new data centers in northern Taiwan simply because they consume too much power. The US needs to work with Taiwan on how to find and create more energy, beyond renewables. Increasingly, nuclear may have to be back on the table.”

Other frustrations are also many. Several executives told me that there is heavy bureaucracy to navigate both from government and larger business partners. Risk tolerance is not high, which makes decision making slow and stifles potential entrepreneurial investments. Even tech connectivity and capabilities among other infrastructure concerns remain. The political division and its ramifications for foreign investment is not to be underestimated as well. In a tense political environment budgets get blocked, every issue is debated into the minutiae, execution is slowed. “NONE of this is going away,” one executive told me.

The elephant in the room of business, of course, is TSMC. They clearly remain the significant front runner in innovation and manufacturing, and not only do they have no intention of going anywhere, but they are also doubling down in Taiwan for their greatest innovation. New production from the US, Japan and shortly Dresden will likely not represent more than 15% of output any time soon, and whether they will ever be profitable remains unclear. Challenges with getting the US operations up and running have been a series of eye-opening lessons in how to manage cross culturally better, lessons we were told have been instructive both in their more successful, fast and efficient builds in Japan and Germany. They are very happy with their business with and in China – “they are very good partners” – and have two fabs there. Notwithstanding and subsequent to our trip, TSMC announced that it was stopping production of advanced chips for China. One friend cautioned me that with this, “It throws into question those who believe China is catching up fast; without Taiwan's technologies, maybe it isn't.”

In the end, the two greatest challenges in TSMC’s foreign facilities have been in investing in and training a workforce, starting at the university level, and the building of the supporting ecosystem of suppliers. “If you all consider a Chip Act 2.0,” one executive told me, “Focus less on dollars and more on supply chain – encouraging an ecosystem of parts suppliers and process on the ground that would strengthen the US and have significant operating and cost efficiencies to the entire engagement.” Today, as an example, TSMC will ship chemicals to the US because they are not made here yet – only to ship BACK the chemical waste as there are no facilities in America to process it.

When I pressed several experts whether China may catch up in semiconductors, most in Taiwan seemed confident as too many skeptics underappreciate the sophistication, precision and training required to make chips at scale ever decreasing size, width and technical advances. We were told that China is at least ten years behind; even as they make huge strides and invest significant capital, they will play catch up for the next decade - and the best advances will continue to move ahead of them. China claims significant advances in chips for Huawei phones, but the nature of those advances is unclear. Also, demand for Huawei is so great that it effectively swallows the capacity for its current needs. Ability to leapfrog by the nature of its manufacturing complexity not a scenario. Concerns about IP theft – of Chinese penetrating TMSC or partners in their ecosystem – are real and but we were assured were understood and containable.

While leapfrog in chip manufacturing seemed unconcerning to them specifically, we pushed hard on advances in other areas that may change the requirements and quantity of chip demand over time. When pushed on the ramifications on quantum of AI chips, as examples, - technologies that may require much different capabilities and less chips - they again seemed less concerned. There is a sense that whatever innovation comes they will need the best in chips, and that is and will be TSMC. The founding principle of “never compete with our customers” remains intact. They will believe in any of these structurally they have an embedded cost and expertise advantage at current and predictable requirements.           

For what it is worth, senior hardware executive friends in Silicon Valley and Southeast Asia are much more skeptical of TSMC’s ten-year, ever evolving lead. They note that technologically, China is dedicating a level of talent, money and ecosystem building put on steroids considering The Chips Act and their own strategic imperatives. They add that China is specifically understanding and targeting the key advantages in Taiwan and offer near unlimited subsidies to go at these in particular. That so much will change technologically in and around chip innovation and consumption that they may surprise us with their place in newer innovation.

Here, like in Taiwan geopolitically and as we all await President Trump 2.0, time will tell.

Alejandro Otero's "Tablon de Pampatar" 1954. Among the favorites by Venezuelan artists of Gustavo and Patricia Cisneros.

Each year I read extensively and widely and summarize my recommendations, but rarely read “business” books.

And in the business literature I do read, and love, business is almost incidental. They are books about character, persistence, vision, mistakes, learning and above all leadership. And they capture a lens on a time and place whose unobvious experiences provoke us to think about our worlds differently.

I had dinner with a wonderful entrepreneur and a policy leader recently, and one asked what book do I most wished I had before I worked with astounding teams to build enterprises – our own or mentoring global entrepreneurs building themselves. My answer is now immediate with the new Challenges are Our Business: Adapting, Re-inventing and Thriving Across a Century of Change.

Gustavo Cisneros, who we sadly and unexpectedly lost at the end of last year, is not a household name among the new generation of tech and policy leaders in America today. But he and his family’s gutsy story is legend across Latin America.

What he built – started with one truck his father bought at age 18 in Caracas – spread first as one of the largest distributors of Pepsi and other consumer products in Venezuela and then across the region, to one of the largest privately held media enterprises not only in the region but globally. His was a story of unstoppable learning, focused on the first principles not only of a given business today, but upon the trends and changes driven by technology and political shifts. He cultivated some of the most accomplished thinkers and actors of his time, and with time became as much their example and teacher.

But for a handful of courtesy conversations, I regret never getting to know him – among other reasons he was apparently also one of the greatest readers of his generation. But I (and now we) am blessed two-fold.

His daughter Adriana is CEO of this enterprise, leveraging foundational lessons with very new instincts for a very new world and time. And in so doing, making it one of the most disciplined institutions embracing rapid technological change, and as a mentor to hundreds of rising entrepreneurs – especially women – in the region, America and globally.  

Second, she worked with him in the last year of his life to finish this marvelous story, structured to focus on lessons any leader can follow and benefit from. I couldn’t put it down, put notes in the margins, and have recommended it to any leader who will listen.

I would have trouble naming many people who have taught me more about a changing Latin America, beautiful Venezuela in ongoing times of crisis, and life and impact more broadly. I asked her for some of her thoughts on this important new book, and its context for today. She kindly bore with my questions.

Why did your father take on sharing his story and lessons?

I think he was fully aware that his life had been an adventure of epic proportions.  And that his story was unique and interesting.   But most importantly, he was always surprised that business biographies, or business success books of Latin-Americans are never available in our part of the world.  Our culture somehow has a hard time celebrating the success of the business community, of business leaders, or the private sector.  He wanted to change that, and he knew that he had an inspiring story to tell for future generations.  

His first biography came out in the 90’s.  It was called Pioneer and is even a better read… it was published by Planeta who at the time  was very nervous because it was their first business biography.  Its had more than seven editions… we stopped counting. The format of the new book is more like a booklet and it will never come out in hard cover intentionally because he wanted it to be as affordable as possible to students in the region.

It is clear in the book that you lived many of the lessons he shares. What surprised you, as a CEO and what was most central to you, when you read it? 

The greatness of Venezuela and the promise of Latin America.  He had such a great run.  I remember a lot of it, but it was just the backdrop of my childhood.  Now as an adult, and 22 years into the demise of Venezuela I can see how small the world must have seem to him in the end.

You became a leader in an organization at rapid, even exponential change driven by technology. How did you balance lessons of what worked at a time, versus now? Are there in fact still “first principles” that were true then, true now, and will be true in wherever AI and new technology will take us? How can one be “maniacal about the numbers” the way your father was - a time of more private equity - in a pace of change that feels more like a time of venture capital?

We grew up in a region with not a lot of local options to finance complex deals or attractive public markets. That was when his NYC relationships ushered by David Rockefeller at Chase Chemical became key in terms of access to capital.   Being a private company was not an option, but the only viable way for us to scale like we did. It also gave us the freedom to explore new opportunities quickly.

Your father writes that with all your experience in moving from a consumer-packaged goods to a media juggernaut it was your experience in satellite that “shaped the future of (y)our organization.” What were the lessons here?

Totally.  When I was in high school, I saw my father assemble the DirecTV deal.  We launched that service in Latin Ameria – two years ahead of the US - when it was supposed to be the other way around.   This was the first service of its kind in the world, and we launched the first privately owned satellite over Latam. 

I was lucky to spend a spring break from Deerfield with him “on tour” as he activated the signal with the local partners in Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia… many of the executives that worked structuring that deal still work for me. When I met Abel Avellan, the founder and CEO of AST & Science, I knew I wanted to be a part of that. 

Because we had the “corporate memory” of the DirecTV deal it took if a very short time to decide to invest.  We came in as seed, series A, I briefly became head of strategy. We are now a public company, and I sit on the board.  One of the best superpowers leading a 100-year-old company is being able to tap into that “corporate memory.”

How is Latin America most different today, and how did he and you think about your business and leadership in these shifts? Your father and the company had to make significant choices in the political uncertainty in the region - at times near existential. We are arguably in an equally significant and hard to predict period in the region - what lessons to you take here for today? 

The world changed for us in 1998 when Hugo Chavez came into power. My father became enemy #1 of the state. He represented the private sector, had the top TV network in the country, and had strong ties in WDC. All three things Chavez did not like.  We fled under heavy threats. NYC became our base for business and as a family.   We had to reinvent ourselves while surviving.  We had to rethink our identity and adapt to our new reality, and we did it without missing a beat. At that point we very much became “of the world” and not nostalgic or sentimental. My father was adamant about this… adaptability became our ethos.

How do you think about geopolitical opportunity beyond Latin America - how has changes in China and the US affected the world differently than in his regional and US rise? 

Great question, but one that you are better at answering.  I would say that Americans have a tendency of thinking they are the center of the universe, and it seems like other superpowers have emerged.  Have you ever seen the upside-down map of the world pen and ink drawing by Uruguayan artists Torres Garcia in 1943?

“We now turn the map upside down, and then we have a true idea of our position, and not as the rest of the world wishes. The point of America, from now on, forever, insistently points to the South, our north.” - Garcia

Understanding the world from the Chinese perspective is one of the greatest ways we can educate ourselves for the decades to come.

Your father shared many lessons. What does “unforeseen circumstances demand innovation” mean?

Working in Venezuela, and Latin America more generally means learning to be quick on your toes. The political and financial context can change overnight, so you have to be able to have a Plan A, Plan B, Plan Z, and everything in between.

In practical terms this means that innovation has to happen overnight, rather than something planned, or allocated to an R&D department. It also needs to be distributed throughout the company so that anyone can find creative solutions to their problems on the fly.

I feel that this was in my father’s DNA and served him well through many storms. When things got hard, rather than panicking, he would start to ask who had a creative solution and would listen to every perspective however outlining it might sound at first.

Your father had extraordinary focus - strategically and tactically - on the businesses without getting too lost by the macro and things he knew were serious, but he could not control. And yet he was deeply aware and involved in geopolitical shifts and actors. What lessons did you learn in this navigation?

Well, he was a product of his time.  I think his taste for geopolitics started in the 70s , when as he became a successful business man,  he also became a confidante for the US in terms of all things “Latam.”  This was a time when not even faxes were around yet.  I suspect these types of relationships back then were extremely valuable and mission critical.  For decades and up to Obama’s presidency he was the sounding board for the White House - regardless of politics.    Obama, surprisingly, did not have a Latin-American affairs office for a very long time and there was literally no one in that administration looking south. 

When he said “point, point and shoot” repeatedly throughout his career, what does he mean?

My father had an eagle eye for homing in on a problem and would keep asking questions and informing himself until he felt ready to act. He was an avid reader and conversationalist. Every encounter was an opportunity to understand another aspect of whatever issue he was thinking about.

Among his executives he was famous for calling and asking the same questions again and again to see if there was a subtlety or nuance that he had missed the first time. All of this was part of his process so that when he pulled the trigger on a project or decision, he was really confident and well informed and would not be blindsided by something unexpected.

Consistent throughout this book is the importance of building and unleashing talent. What key learning is as relevant for young entrepreneurs and builders today? What are “ad hoc teams?”.  

In a company like ours, people seem to have very long tenure.  Our corporate culture, since the time of my grandfather, is to train a great set of generalist that in turn can hire the specialists.  All of our top brass are generalists - not only in their skill set, but also on the types of businesses they have been involved with.   Every successful team that we have assembled to brainstorm, question or create something new has always been multidisciplinary.

What does it mean to be open to the possibility of wonder?

It means to wake up every day knowing that something magical might happen, that a secret door could open, that a chance encounter might change your views, or that a conversation with a stranger could unleash your creativity.  It means always being in state of “open.”

Painting: A Big World Seen From Young Eyes - Vietnamese Artist Xeo Chu, Age 14

“Tiến bước chậm nhưng không dừng lại" (“We just keep moving forward – sometimes it will be slow, but we do not stop.”) – Vietnamese saying from a friend

“The biggest difference between our soldiers and yours during the American War can be summed up like this. We were trained – it was like a law – that for every three bullets we fired, one had to hit. As far as we could tell, you would shoot thousands to hit once. It was clear that you had to want this more than us if that was your strategy. That was not possible.” - North Vietnamese Army veteran from the Ho Chi Minh Trail, 1970-1975 interpreted in my interview.

“Don’t ever underestimate us, man. We have guerilla deep in our DNA for centuries. We just keep coming.” -- Vietnam tech CEO with operations now globally.

I asked a long-time consultant in Hanoi what he thought Americans get most wrong about this beautiful and vibrant country and he smiled at me and said: “You people are obsessed with the Vietnam War. Everyone who visits talks about it in their speeches. Half the population was born two decades after it. They want to talk about the future.”

Notwithstanding, I will start with two war vignettes from my near month in the country that stuck with me as I assessed the ever-rising tech and business ecosystem there.

First, I visited Dien Bien Phu, the site of one of the most important and least remembered battles of the 20th century. I should say, least remembered in the States – but it is the 70th anniversary of the battle and I was surrounded by Vietnamese, many of whom were veterans of subsequent wars and their families.

It is important in that it effectively ended the French colonial presence there once and for all and thus opened the door for another two decades of war with America. It is important because pretty much the entire colonial world, psychologically, saw that western nations could be taken on and beaten. It is important in that it says so much about the entrepreneurial creativity and tenacity of the Vietnamese today and for centuries.

The French had chosen a valley in northwest Vietnam with thousands of their best men and equipment as a way to stop opposing forces from expanding into neighboring Laos. The miles of hills and mountains surrounding the base was for the French a guarantee of safety. The now legendary General Giap of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam Army had a different idea. He entpreneurially, slowly, methodically, and with the help of tens of thousands of his countrymen piece by piece brought heavy armaments, ammunitions, and supplies all but undetected across these hills. When the first artillery shells landed on the airfield in March of 1954, the French knew how badly they had miscalculated. Some 56 days later, with terrible losses on both sides, Giap had won a great victory by doing something the world thought not only impossible, but unthinkable.

Second, I interviewed several veterans from what was then North Vietnam in what is known there as the American War. There were lessons galore from hours with each of them, but one man who personally dug tunnels to move supplies and harass and kill American and South Vietnamese forces an hour from Saigon has stuck with me.

He had lost an arm in 1967. He stayed in the tunnels and dug and rehabilitated them until AFTER 1973. With ONE arm. How he maintained the tunnels, created systems and latches for when Americans tried to flood them, developed code and processes of communications at night were as innovative as stunning. He showed us flip-flops made of rubber from discarded American vehicles, whose soles were shaped in a way that their footprints would leave utter confusion as to whether they were coming or going.

I thought of these experiences regularly as I met with dozens of executives, entrepreneurs, investors, students and more across the country.

In many ways they are foundational stories representing the builders I met.

The Macro level: A New Vietnam Open for Business?

Certainly, among locals, Americans, and global business execs there was a clear sense that the country is open for business.  I was cautioned repeatedly that while certainly the country is significantly centrally planned and top down, and the party is essential -- it is not Xi’s China. Power is not in the hands of an individual and for the moment there is no sign of that changing. Shared power and consensus is the watchword among leadership, and while this can make change and processes slower, it also can mean that there will be fewer mercurial-seeming or abrupt changes. The consensus today is it is a historic moment for growth. And as one tech executive said to me, “Once they make up their mind, they make things so.”

What is in consensus, however, can take time in application. I didn’t have to scratch hard to hear stories of how the government “lost” Intel – assuming their existing presence guaranteed their expansion, but for host of reasons Poland was able to woo them away. Netflix, I was told repeatedly, threw its hands up in frustrations in trying to get through regulations and while having a sizeable market there has relocated regional production elsewhere in the region.

But, I was reminded regularly, these lessons have not been lost at the highest levels and efforts are being made to discuss them openly and make change. Global companies, and American tech companies in particular, have made clear that the sine qua non of investing deeply here will be access to energy, access to globally competitive talent, and ever clearer and predictable rule of law. Vietnam understands in an era of global supply chain reshuffling any enterprise worth its salt has above all choice. As one local consultant said to me, “Let’s face it, Poland did everything right and has a strong and responsive play book. Vietnam is learning – and will learn – that to attract any industry, let alone tech for the 21st century like chips manufacturing, they are on a clock. Vietnam will rise regardless in its own momentum, but its ability to reach maximum potential will be getting the basics right quickly – even 18 months.” Arizona-based chip maker Amkor Technologies just made an over $1.6 billion bet here last October and Nvidia announced further expansion plans in customer partnership and manufacturing at the end of last year.

Efforts of anti-corruption are a two-edged sword, and I was there just as the President was forced to resign among a host of allegations. At one level, global investors salute the effort to tap down the cancerous effects of corruption that haunt economic growth anywhere. At another level it can slow down change. One investor told me he was thrilled at some of the pace of change he has seen but cautioned “we have been in a period where folks were acting and willing to ask some forgiveness later. Maybe in all this we might enter a period of needing permission rather than forgiveness.”

Books have been written about the long and complicated history with China, and both that history but also an admiration for what they have built came up often. No one expressed any interest in poking anyone in the eye, but across sectors I met with – tech, tourism, defense, energy and more – there was an eagerness here as I’ve seen across rising markets to have optionality. There is wariness about too much reliance on Chinese infrastructure, such as Huawei. I saw very little evidence of Chinese consumer brands outside of Tik Tok, and only a few Xiaomi phones and alike. Several told me in affect that it will always be AWS’s battle to lose in Vietnam’s recent “cloud first” initiatives as compared to anything from Ali Cloud. Japan and Korean tech and pop culture were repeatedly embraced across my trip – it is Japan, not China, that is building high-speed train system here and entrepreneurs told me they eagerly embrace active tech investment from both. But as one student said to me: “Everyone, if they could, would have a smart phone.”

There is, of course, a long history with Russia and I was advised repeatedly that US business and policy makers should not overreact to this. I was told also that reliance on Russian defense equipment and supply of spare parts was “mixed at best,” opening new opportunity not only for traditional manufacturers in America and Australia, but for the new tech innovators like Palantir and Anduril, especially in data science and drones.  I was told there is not only a desire to upgrade defense systems, but an unprecedented openness to discuss vulnerabilities and needs. As one diplomat told me, “The significance of this should not be understated.”

If there is a watch word for the 21st century global economy, it is “co-authorship.” The days where the act of an American company – particularly tech company – showing up and winning a market out of sheer marketing force is challenged by choice. Today the best way to compete is, in fact, to compete. I likely heard the term “reciprocity” more than any other.

American business will size up Vietnam as it compares it to all of Southeast Asia as well as Eastern Europe and Latin America, and Vietnam will invite their own market choices. If America will make choices based on access to energy, talent and rule of law, Vietnam will do so based on what one executive called “the durability of American commitments.” The Trans-Pacific Partnership and our withdrawal came up repeatedly in discussions, but so did how America met its commitments to deliver over 44 million doses of Pfizer vaccine during Covid. He was also quick to point out that Vietnam quickly delivered masks for Americans and that local electronic vehicle manufacturer VinFast is excited to build EV facilities in North Carolina which, with some early bumps, has committed to create over 6,000 jobs in America.

One of the high points of my trip was visiting Fulbright University and spending half a day with its astounding students in Ho Chi Minh City. The school whose creation was driven by War veterans like Tom Vallely, John McCain, John Kerry and Bob Kerrey and supported by the US government and donors is one of the best things the US has done here - heavily focused on critical thinking and liberal arts but will integrate top areas of science and tech. It is a pro-active engagement on developing talent. I told the CEO of a large tech company that if I were he and I would simply storm their senior class and hire them all. He smiled at me and said, “We already do all the time.” American universities and tech juggernauts are looking to expand programs to upskill talent in the country for chips and AI.

Reciprocity is good for business, and it builds trust. There is a $110 billion trade surplus for Vietnam so there is great incentive for more of it.

Enter the New Breed

The stunning and sprawling campus of VNG – one of the great tech companies not only in Vietnam but in the world – is evocative of an energized Silicon Valley office but very reflective of the founder and pioneer of the tech ecosystem in Vietnam Le Hong Minh. It is open and transparent and expects both hard work and commitment – located just outside of the more central parts of Ho Chi Minh City – but is inviting and has not only extensive space for collaboration and ideation but the requisite food and health facilities for mind and body. It began creating games in 2004, and now is a leader in online entertainment more broadly, social networking and ecommerce, and created one of the largest chat, mobile shopping and  payment platforms Zalo Pay.

Minh has lived the changes. “Vietnam today is a tech-dynamic and approaching middle income country, a stark difference comparing to 2004 when we started. GDP has grown four to five times over the last 20 years and went from a 2% PC penetration to nearly 80 million smart phone users and among the largest countries in the world in terms of tech usage. Coming with this the hardest thing for us is always access to talent, capital and experienced people to build the “next level” products or businesses.”

Huong Tran likes the trends. She is a venture partner from one of the more exciting tech venture capital firms across Southeast Asia, Monks Hill Ventures. Her story is one of the many remarkable journeys of the new Vietnam. She was born well after the War, was the first Vietnamese student to attend Stanford Graduate School of Business after the War ended, spent a decade in industry and startups in Silicon Valley and Southeast Asia and Vietnam and is helping the next generation do the same. She told me there are at least four factors that have transformed the Vietnamese entrepreneurial landscape.

First, there's a noticeable increase in the quantity, quality and caliber of entrepreneurs. Half of its population is under 30. They have fresh ideas and have gravitated to startups and tech companies and simply know how it is done. Additionally, Vietnam is one of the top 10 producers of engineers globally, according to the World Economic Forum, producing over 50,000 IT graduates annually. Vietnam sends almost half of the entire Southeast Asian international students to study abroad in the US. Many of them after having gained valuable skills and networks abroad may return home and increase the quality of the talent pool.

Second, Vietnamese entrepreneurs nowadays are more ambitious in their visions for scale and size.

Within Southeast Asia, Ho Chi Minh City bears an interesting resemblance to the next Silicon Valley: a strong STEM educational system, a relatively inexpensive pool of engineers, and the recent wave of overseas Vietnamese home comers or foreign founders moving to the country accelerating Vietnam’s digital economy. It has become increasingly common to see globally distributed teams with engineering hubs in HCMC or Hanoi, especially after COVID.

Third, the availability of capital in venture capital investment in Vietnam has increased significantly in the past 10 years, from $46 mil invested in 2014 to $634 mil in 2022. While last year saw a drop from the hyped-up go-go days of investment found in markets everywhere, there is growing attractiveness as an investment destination and reflects the confidence of investors in the country's economic prospects.

Lastly, Vietnam's commitment to enhancing the rule of law has become increasingly apparent, bolstering its status as a favorable destination for foreign investment. Vietnam was ranked of 70 out of 190 countries in the World Bank Group's Ease of Doing Business report for 2020 and boasts 15 active Free Trade Agreements with an additional four under negotiation. These agreements serve as catalysts for expanding market access, promoting trade liberalization, and enhancing the competitiveness of Vietnamese industries on the global stage.

Jeff Lonsdale has had extensive entrepreneurial and investment experience in Silicon Valley and the US, but also across Asia and now Vietnam where his Starstorm Ventures is discovering unobvious shifts in the region. He told me that among the greatest shifts people underestimate is that today’s entrepreneurs have the advantage of an established infrastructure.

“There are solutions for logistics and payments for the people building the next round of companies today. There may be better solutions to be built in these spaces, but they can build their own companies without doing a lot of things in-house and customers are trained to already understand how ecommerce and other modern businesses work.” In addition, today’s best entrepreneurs in Vietnam are thinking global day one. “One way to filter for founders who have greater ambition is to focus on founders who have spent a lot of time overseas. Whether this is from an overseas education and some time working in Silicon Valley, or other Viet Kieu (overseas Vietnam) returning to Vietnam after growing up abroad, these are the entrepreneurs by default have a vision to win beyond just Vietnam's markets.”

My old friend Christopher Nguyen is my go-to for anything in deep tech, global thinking, thinking on life more broadly and certainly Vietnam. Chris’ life story is a book in and of itself, as he escaped as a boy by boat from Vietnam in 1979 through Malaysia. Impossibly he built a storied Silicon Valley career – PhD at Stanford in Engineering, the highest-level leadership roles from Google Apps to a host of startups and successful exits. He was into serious data science and AI before it was fashionable and is most recently bridging the power of the US market and Vietnam talent in his AITOMATIC which translates domain knowledge from natural language to ML models, for industrial companies. I spent an evening with his team in Ho Chi Minh City who would be coveted by any company in Silicon Valley.

“We're seeing a new wave of younger returnees who left Vietnam only in the past 20 years, and they're bringing a unique perspective to the table. These people have a much easier time plugging back into the country, compared to the refugee generation, while they also come with valuable experience from working in global corporations and start-ups abroad.”

At the same time, the growing start-up ecosystem within Vietnam has produced a group of very resilient entrepreneurs, what he calls the "real entrepreneurs" who have had to navigate the challenges of finding genuine product-market fit while managing cash flow effectively. “It's a tough journey, but it's also what makes them so effective at what they do. The combination of globally minded returnees and battle-tested local entrepreneurs creates a unique and promising environment for start-ups to flourish in Vietnam.”

It Don’t Come Easy – Building A New Ain’t for the Faint of Heart

To a person, people I met were realistic by the head winds. The size of the market is large (at over 100 million people) but not that large say like Indonesia. Southeast Asia, as I’ve written here, is not really a traditional “market” marked by shared culture, language, religion, rule of law per se – the most successful “regional” companies, like the mobile/superapp juggernaut Grab are as much holding companies country by country. The history of successful “global” expansion of local tech companies overseas is still early. The era of “copycats” – local companies taking successful models and building them for home markets seems passed and those building outside of the box will need to show significantly more traction and better unit economics potential to be able to raise capital to reach scale. One entrepreneur noted that a cultural strength also may be a hindrance in the 21st global/tech economy: “Focus can be a challenge. Vietnam has a great hustle culture where people are building a lot, but when employees all have side gigs or entrepreneurs who aren't Elon Musk find it normal to try and build multiple companies, it makes it hard for any one company to be extremely successful.”

Huong told me what remains the hardest challenge is figuring out how Vietnam can leapfrog and avoid the Middle-Income Trap - when countries struggle to advance beyond middle-income levels due to structural constraints. The jury is still out in places like Thailand and Indonesia, but success in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are encouraging models. “Vietnam's leapfrogging past the trap requires a multifaceted approach involving various sectors and policies. Vietnam's journey to economic prosperity rests on three pivotal pillars: dynamic human capital development (especially in STEM, critical thinking and mentoring/entrepreneurial experience), effective technology promotion and transfer, and favorable investment infrastructure.

Nguyen adds, the three most significant obstacles are: (1) navigating government regulations (complex web of bureaucracy and rules too often also defaults to “no” when startups are tying to get things done, (2) overcoming VC pattern-matching when investors from abroad have their own mental models and experiences on how to build missing the unique aspects required to succeed in Vietnam, and (3) availability of experienced professional management who have operated businesses at scale. But in all this he sees opportunity: “We will see more streamlined regulations, a better understanding of the market among investors, and a growing pool of professional managers. In the meantime, entrepreneurs who can navigate these obstacles will be well-positioned to succeed in Vietnam's dynamic and growing market.”

Luke Nguyen is the great founder of the highly successful mobile gaming enterprise Athena Studio and now runs an innovative fund in climate tech Earth Venture. He agrees that scale, and the mindset to scale, and skills/talent are essential and wells as linguistic diversity that can help bridge communication gaps across Southeast Asia and beyond. “Normally, I see the successful teams always have a diversified background,” he told me. But he added another basic one – have you built the right tool sets in a market where the cost of starting a venture has never been lower, more global competition is a click away and may be located anywhere.

They all see these challenges addressable – and in this addressing lies opportunity.

How will AI change the Game for Vietnam – Will It?

How the newer worlds of deep tech and AI will affect all this is still a question. One entrepreneur said to me there will be a tradeoff here but across rising markets: “To make this explicit - building a foundational AI company out here seems foolhardy, though building a company that utilizes AI to solve sector specific business challenges, or build devtools for people working with AI, would be a very interesting approach.”

If there is a candidate for the Godfather of the Vietnamese tech ecosystem, Vu Lam would be among them. Like Chris Nguyen he escaped from Vietnam as a child and has had an astounding career in America, studying in Illinois and Indiana. He told me that as early as 1995 he felt something was missing in his life, and he had to go back to Vietnam and figure out how he could make a difference. As things opened up, he began to leverage his relationships in the States and Vietnam building enormously successful tech global consulting enterprises leveraging and growing tech skills in Vietnam. He shrugged when I asked him, he noted: “AI provides benefits across all markets so I don't see Vietnam having any special skills/affinity that can leverage this technology as a differentiator.”

Minh concurred but noted the big questions need to be discussed. “We are thinking what the impact to the country workforces is if foreign language is no longer a barrier as near-perfect real-time translation will be available in a few years. At the same time, if everybody in the world has the same access, what will be the values of a knowledge worker from Vietnam. There is not a clear and easy answer.”

Huong is optimistic, embracing her conviction that skills and talent are the north star. “Vietnam has great potential to leapfrog in AI the same way mobile payments leapfrogged credit cards, and mobile phones leapfrogged desktop in the past decade. Vietnam can position itself as a key player in the global AI landscape, by focusing on AI talent development, innovation, and entrepreneurship. She added that embracing AI could potentially propel Southeast Asia’s GDP by nearly $1 trillion by 2030, as reported by the Financial Times. She added that in markets like Vietnam, numerous industries still rely on archaic pen-and-paper methods, this “Creates huge potential for AI to leapfrog where previously untouched by software revolutions, in more traditional sectors that are magnets for foreign direct investment.”

Chris Nguyen could not agree more on leap frogging across all industries central to Vietnam in the future. “I have believed this since 2012 when we first set up an office for our Big Data/Machine Learning start-up there. It does take time, but the fundamentals of an economy with 70 million young people under 35 with strong cultural commitments to education point to a strong opportunity to leapfrog with any technology that can leverage that human capital. The same thing cannot be said for economies around that region, either in quantity or quality. In the past ten years, a budding ecosystem has formed, thanks to the likes of VinAI (research), FPT AI Center (development), New Turing Institute (vocational).

He adds: “The way I know there is an ecosystem is that (in my company) we are now starting to be able to hire highly qualified AI people directly from that ecosystem, with the pipeline coming directly out of these institutions. In fact, you don’t have to take my word for it. This is the same human-resources bet that is being made by Japan, by South Korea, by Thailand, by Singapore, etc.”

So, the World is Lining Up, Right?

A friend who is both an investor and a beekeeper told me he thought Americans in particular would do well to work with his hobby. Novices assume the minute you open a beehive, the bees will be focused on you. And it’s always wonderful and humbling to note that they never seem to notice the outside at all – they are too busy building on their mission.

One of the most interesting questions I asked dozens of people I met was actually how much comparison one could make between the rise of the Vietnamese tech ecosystem and the juggernaut north in China. Is there, I asked, a 996 mentality here – the famous Jack Ma and Ali Baba philosophy of working from 9:00 AM to 9:00 PM six days a week. To a person I was greeted with puzzled expressions. They aren’t going to build the Chinese way any more than they will build the American way. There are lessons to be learned everywhere, and the best in Vietnam – as globally minded as the best are – are focused on building in their way and their terms.

Minh almost, but patiently, chastised me. “Companies and VCs in the US normally focus on the 'big' opportunities, both in the US/EU and in a few very large Asia markets (previously China, and now India, for example). Most people not living in this part of the world will not have a knowledgeable understanding of the mid-sizes and smaller countries (like Vietnam), both in terms of the market potential and differences, as well as the capabilities of our people and companies. For me it is normal and very much a benefit to us, as it will allow us to truly build our deep knowledge and capabilities for markets like Vietnam (and similar countries).”

The American Lonsdale doubles down: “None of the countries in Southeast Asia are the next China, but outside of their neighbor in India (where valuations are high and competition in the investment market is even higher), it is one of the few places we can identify in the world where it is low risk to assume that there will be significant economic growth over the next ten years.”

Luke and Vu reminded me that larger global players usually start focused on partners that solve some low-cost outsourcing. The culture of math-heavy education for a long time created a good workforce in technology even globally from Grab to Yahoo, Samsung, LG, Intel, Bosch. “The workforce here is generally better educated than other ASEAN countries, highly motivated, and fast learners. Vietnam as a market is good and growing.  But the real value is being able to leverage the workforce here to perform high-skill jobs at a competitive cost would be a great way to help grow your own business/ideas.”

We are beyond that phase now.

The next wave of global attention has begun to realize that Vietnamese, at their essence, are builders and what is really needed is partnership. As Huong notes that “unlike in the US, where financial backing may suffice, Vietnamese companies seek investors who can offer strategic guidance, serve as sounding boards, and provide tactical support.” And, in turn, this also makes the American view of Vietnam as a geopolitical ballast very short-termist. It is simply not a role Vietnam wants to play, and the more we try to force the issue, the worse it would get for us. Better to treat Vietnam on its own terms with the respect it deserves, regardless of temporary economic might. “By recognizing and harnessing this untapped potential, Silicon Valley and the broader US market can unlock valuable opportunities for collaboration and investment in the Vietnamese ecosystem.”

Chris Nguyen I think takes some pleasure at setting me straight somewhat less patiently, and others who he thinks have often naïve understandings of Vietnam in Silicon Valley more broadly:

“Viet Nam sees itself as having a unique aspirational moment for the first time in 4,000 years. Americans are often very surprised to learn why the Vietnamese are so America-friendly (67% trust America would do the right thing vs 20% for China, in the recent ISEAS survey), despite the recent history of the and the subsequent devastating embargo. This defies all data points from the last 70 years, or even 200 years.

He adds, “the only way to understand it is to widen the aperture to thousands of years. The young people of Vietnam have a kind of wizened, entrepreneurial confidence about the future that come from being liberated, quite literally, for the first time in modern history. They know their history, but they think and act largely ahistorically. So, to say that Vietnam is “too small” a market ignores that minimum fifty-year time span, during which time the country will have become the most important in the region, bypassing Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, even Australia and Japan. By then Vietnam will have become a “global country”, with its citizens already forming diasporas throughout the region in increasing numbers.”

Simply See For Yourself

No one has helped me to understand the beauty, history and opportunity among the youth in Vietnam than Nguyen Lan Anh, the founding Managing Director of Endeavor Vietnam. For someone who had an astonishing, hard-nosed career as a reporter and executive editor at Forbes Vietnam, she is disarmingly soulful. And she was an inspired choice to take that combination skills to create one of the most important networks of mentorship and support for startups in Vietnam – as Endeavor Global has done in over 40 countries.

So much of my reflections and experiences in Vietnam were arranged by her, and she patiently would respond to my questions on the journey to keep my focused. Her own reflection piece on the ecosystem is better than mine here and all you have to do is search the companies she and her board and mentors have selected in Vietnam here, and you have a map of what is coming.  

The journalist in her has beaten on me for years in all my travel that no homework, no impression from elsewhere in Asia will capture a new day in Vietnam like simply showing up. There is no substitute.

She also hosted a global competition for startups based on a principle Endeavor Co-Founder Linda Rottenberg was the first to make me understand – that that which is shared among great entrepreneurs in rising markets is greater than that which they share with Silicon Valley, New York City or Beijing. The winners of this year reminded me of that lesson.

And the Vietnamese winners stood toe to toe globally among them all.

Coda

Chris Nguyen created this beautiful rendering of a stanza from the great Vietnamese poet from the end of the Le Dynasty Ho Xuan Huong (1772 - 1822), appropriately from the generative AI service Midjourney.

In the Spring-Watching Pavilion, destiny’s whispers intertwine,

A gilded instant, its significance boundless.

A sacred vow, a lifelong pact to keep,

Shedding myriad selves, burdens released from the deep.

Though the Tô Lake may run dry, our fated bond persists,

The Yellow River swells with love and affection.

No matter the intensity, I dare not question this appointment,

For this crimson ink seals our destiny’s anointment.

As he notes, in this interpretation, the encounter between the poet and their friend at the Yellow River is portrayed as a fateful meeting, an "Appointment with Destiny." The poem suggests that this moment is not merely a chance occurrence but a significant event that has been preordained.

The Spring-Watching Pavilion becomes the setting where destiny's breath intertwines, emphasizing the idea that their paths were meant to cross. The golden moment they share is imbued with boundless significance, hinting at its pivotal role in their lives.

The oath to remember and the shedding of burdens underscore the transformative nature of this encounter, as if it marks a turning point in their journey. The enduring bond between the friends, symbolized by the Tuo River and Yellow River, is characterized as a fated connection that withstands the tests of time.

The final lines emphasize the poet's unwavering acceptance of this appointment with destiny, sealed by the crimson ink that represents the indelible mark of their shared fate.

This is my favorite post to write, selfishly, because I get to step back and reflect on both the amazing reading I’ve done this year, and that nearly half of these books were recommended by some of the greatest readers in and around my life. (They are thanked by name at the end).

This year, as every year, I delve into areas of curiosity for me, but also where lessons and reflections can help me understand our times and where we are going. I am especially attracted to “bottom-up” books that take us to understanding the ground of people, countries, and science on their terms; history that contextualizes our worlds; and beautiful writing found in fiction and literature.

What jumped out most is how impossible it is for me to pick a “best” from each category I read. So please feel free to skim the list below for categories that interest you. As I now, finally, stop reading books that don’t resonate with me early, these all are very good. I’ve added editorial comments that may be of help.

Finally, a friend opened a wonderful new bookstore this fall in Middleburg VA, Middleburg Books. They are partnered with bookshop.org where any book we order credits them. The books at the top of my recommendation and any I’ve read since their opening have their links, the rest are Amazon. But please consider ordering from and supporting this special effort for any book you purchase.

My Top by Category:

On Africa, New York Times reporter Helene Cooper’s memoir, The House at Sugar Beach: In Search of a Lost African Childhood brings all her journalistic skill to her own astounding story of her family emigrating from Liberia in war.

On American History and Culture, I loved both magisterial and complementary biographies on Oppenheimer, Kai Bird’s, American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer and Ray Monk’s  Robert Oppenheimer: A Life Inside the Center.  Ernie Pyle’s  Brave Men is with With the Old Breed and Helmut for My Pillow, among the best World War II memoirs I’ve read. Stacy Schiff’s The Revolutionary: Sam Adams  is perhaps the definitive biography of one of the most important and least known figures from our founding.

On Antiquity and Global Thought, I dug deeply into primary sources including Epictetus’ Discourses and Selected Writings – now become my favorites among the stoics, as relevant today as the first century, and Dio Cassius’ Roman Histories Volume I, through Augustus – a wonderful, readable, primary source from the 3^rd century on the rise of Rome and her emperors. I stop and read everything Mary Beard writes, and her new Emperors of Rome: Ruling the Ancient Roman World is brilliant, serious, for the lay reader, and filled with the latest research. I’ve given many young mentees and friends this crucial book to put today’s terrible conflicts in historic context, Margaret MacMillan’s War: How Conflict Shaped Us.

On Asia, Australia and South Asia, Malcom Turnbull’s  A Bigger Picture is a superb memoir with context of Australia today, great recent political battles, and an amazing life. Michael Vatikiotis’ Blood and Silk is an important, somber and sober overview of Southeast Asia today and historical context by the BBC journalist who covered it for thirty years.

On China, everything I read was wonderful. I will merely call out Andrew Small’s No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West which is a marvelous tour of tech, business and policy shifts with detailed focus on Europe in the China engagements. Bonnie Glaser’s’ U.S. Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to Crisis is a superb and balanced analysis of one of the top hot-spots of our times. Jing Tsu’s  Kingdom of Characters is an excellent history of challenges/opportunities in Chinese language and characters in modernizing the country over the last century.

On Europe and North America, if I had to recommend one book this year it would likely be Stefan Zweig’s The World of Yesterday -- a brilliant, beautifully written look at the fall of societies in Europe building to World War I and World War II and a reminder of not taking our current security as a given. I had a wonderful re-reading of Barbara Tuchman, including her beautiful take on the first month of World War I, The Guns of August and The Proud Tower as a perfect precursor to the period before that War, with wonderful texture from America also. Written as Anonymous at the time, A Woman in Berlin: Eight Weeks in a Conquered City is a brutal, breath taking, well-written memoir of occupied Berlin and I warn you nothing is spared. Kati Marton’s The Chancellor: The Remarkable Odyssey of Angela Merkel is excellent, bordering on the hagiographic, on one of the remarkable figures of the past 50 years.

On fiction and literature, I delved greatly into old and new friends of the earlier part of the 20^th Century and late 19^th. I especially devoured books with a lens on empire, and how ill prepared most of us are in understanding the ground let alone even being curious about it. All by E.M Forster, Joseph Conrad, V.S. Naipaul, Graham Greene and F. Scott Fitzgerald below were superb, as is the chilling work on moral tradeoffs that is Fyodor Dostoevsky. I add Nevil Shute’s On the Beach, which holds up extraordinarily well as a deeply moving account of the last survivors of nuclear war. Ocean Vuong’s On Earth We’re Briefly Gorgeous is a  beautifully written novel as letters to his immigrant Mom and a gut punch on coming of age. Finally, a gorgeous short story comes from, of course, Ireland: Claire Keegan’s Foster is a  jewel of an Irish novella of coming of age and family complexity, capturing a moment in time.

On film and arts, I spent a great deal of time watching and studying David Lean films. Kevin Brownlow’s David Lean: A Biography is a good picture by picture detailed extensive biography of one of the greatest film makers to have lived.

On the Middle East, I have chosen three deep writings of personal experience and reflection. This beautiful debut by Katherine Saad Feghali, Glass Cedars is a gripping novel, but also memoir, of the Lebanese Civil War and cross-cultural experience in the US. Utterly powerful, with astounding and sometimes heart breaking context for our times right now is Amal Ghandour’s This Arab Life: A Generation’s Journey into Silence. Michael Vatikiotis’ Lives Between the Lines is a  poignant family history from Egypt to Lebanon in the early 20^th century and influences today.

On spirituality, faith and unleashing our potential, for the first time since college I re-read the entire Bible. But this time with a version edited by Becky Tarabassi, Change Your Life Bible with substantial, provocative and poignant annotations and reflections. Gina Bianchini’s Purpose: Design a Community & Change Your Life is an excellent path of maximizing our best by being a part of others. I also reviewed it here. By my bedside remains Dag Hammarskjold’s Markings, with wonderful reflections of purpose, leadership and courage, some of my favorite quotes aggregated here.  Finally, in all his craziness and brilliance I could listen to Rick Rubin on creativity for hours at a time – fortunately distilled in his  The Creative ACT: A Way of Being.

On Science and Technology and Business, I rely much more on blogs and videos in these rapidly changing worlds, but on AI very good groundings include Reid Hoffman’s and (GPT4’s) , Impromptu: Amplifying Our Humanity Through AI which is a wonderful, right-setting tour of the central issues and opportunities we now face with AI. Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan’s, AI 2041: Ten Vision for the Future is a collection of short stories on the world in 20 years, with superb analysis on where tech may lead us. Mustapha Suleyman’s wrote a controversial push on both the strengths and concerns from a man who helped build it all, Coming Wave. One of the great business memoirs is Steven Myers’, Cross Winds: Adventure and Entrepreneurship in the Russian Far East which is one part adventure writing of Patrick Leigh Fermor, one part superb tale of impossible entrepreneurship. Internationally minded person that I am, Shannon K. O’Neil reminded me in her The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter that a global world is, in fact, more about regions – more so now than ever.

The rest really are superb also, to your interests:

AFRICA

Robert Gaudi, African Kaiser: General Paul Von Lettow-Vorbeck and the Great War in Africa

Superb one volume on Africa during World War I. Remarkable figures and context.

AMERICAN HISTORY AND CULTURE

Scott Anderson, The Quiet Americans: Four CIA Spies at the Dawn of the Cold War

A thorough, researched lens on the cold war through the rise of spy-craft and four men at its center.

Timothy Egan, A Fever in the Heartland: The Ku Klux Klan and the Woman Who Stopped Them

Spellbinder, near fiction account of the rise and fall of the Klan – except it is all true.

John Lewis Gaddis, The Cold War: A New History

Accessible one-volume by a legendary historian, though the world has changed dramatically since.

Adam Hochschild, American Midnight – Great War, Violent Peace Democracy’s Crisis

An eye-opening look at America post World War I – rise of unions, nativism and new economic order.

William Inboden, The Peace Maker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War and the World on the Brink

Excellent, detailed and thorough overview of President Reagan and his foreign policy.

Steve Kemper, Our Man in Tokyo: An American Ambassador and the Countdown to Pearl Harbor

Superb. I’ve read on World War II for years and I didn’t know half of this.

Melvyn Leffler, Confronting Saddam Hussein: George W. Bush and the Invasion of Iraq

A historians look at the build up to War after September 11. Meticulously researched, and well written.

Neil King, American Ramble: A Walk of Memory and Renewal

Joining a 250 mile walk from DC to NYC, exploring life/people along the way with views on our times.

John McPhee, Bill Bradley at Princeton: A Sense of Where You Are.

Beautiful 1964 look at one of the greatest players, but also human beings of discipline and impact.

Tom Mueller, How to Make a Killing: Blood, Death and Dollars in American Medicine

The whistle blowers whistle blower’s new book brutally unpacking incentives and fraud in health care.

Eric L. Motley, Madison Park: A Place of Hope

Beautiful, personal coming of age growing up in the rural south with deep influence of people and place.

Nathaniel  Moir, Number One Realist: Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare

Fall understood the ground and told power in DC what they didn’t want to hear. Never more needed.

John Nixon, Debriefing the President: Interrogating Saddam Hussein

Riveting overview of the interviews with and what we learned from Saddam and our War.

George Packer, Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century

Intimate, well-written bio of an extraordinary and flawed figure at the heart of US Policy for fifty years.

Jim Popkin, Code Name Blue Wren

Page-turner story of one of the worst spies working for Cuba, forgotten in September 11.

Nicholas Reynolds, Need to Know

A comprehensive history of the rise of American Intelligence in World War II.

Richard Sander/Stuart Taylor: Mismatch: How Affirmative Action Hurts Students It’s Intended to Help

Provocative, data filled study that makes one understand our goals, outcomes and better plans.

Michael Shellenberger, San Fran-Sicko

Provocative author but must-read with data and analysis about the sad shifts in SF and other US cities.

Cliff Sloan, The Court at War

Definitive on the Court during WW II; wonderful surprises and how democracy functions even in crisis.

Kwame Ture and Charles Hamilton, Black Power: Politics of Liberation in America

It reads as if it was written today – here at home and abroad – as provocative and maddening as ever.

ANTIQUITY AND GLOBAL THOUGHT

Anothy Birley, Hadrian: The Restless Emperor

Good, one volume on one of the most important emperors most of us know little about.

Harry Eyres, Horace and Me: Life Lessons From and Ancient Poet

Lovely part personal memoir, part history of his history, biography, affection for the great poet.

John Lewis Gaddis, On Grand Strategy

Must read one-volume on the history of strategy from antiquity to the last century, and core lessons.

Adrian Goldsworthy, Rome and Persia: The Seven Hundred Year Rivalry

Excellent, accessible overview of the centuries tension, occasional war, navigation of two great powers.

Robert Kaplan, A Tragic Mind: Fear, Fate and the Burden of Power

Powerful, intimate look at how understanding tragedy is essential to life and leadership.

Irene Vallejo, Papyrus – The Invention of Books in the Ancient World

Marvelous historical look at the rise of reading and book from a lover of books.

ASIA, AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH ASIA

Herbert Bix, Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan

A comprehensive, meticulously researched bio on a figure wrongly forgotten for better and worse.

Bill Bryson, In a Sunburned Country

Marvelous, holds up well, often very funny overview of history and travel in Australia.

John Hersey, Hiroshima

I’ve not read since college, stunningly written reporting of the aftermath of the bomb.

Roy Moxham, The Great Hedge of India: The Search for the Living Barrier That Divided a People

One part history, one part travelogue in search of a 1,000 mile hedge built across India for the salt tax.

Mark Peel and Christina Twomey, A History of Australia

Short, concise and excellent overview of this extraordinary and impossible history.

CHINA

James Bradley, The China Mirage: The Hidden History of American Disaster in Asia

Paints with too broad and perhaps biased brushes, but also fascinating look at our ignorance on China.

Jung Chang: Big Sister, Little Sister, Red Sister: Three Women at the Heart of 20^th Century China

Superb and wonderfully written book on these extraordinary women, and the leaders they shaped.

Zhao Changtian, An Irishman in China: Robert Hart, IG of the Chinese Imperial Maritime Customs

Wonderful historical novel about perhaps the most powerful foreigner in 19^th Century China.

Martin Chorzempa, Cashless Revolution: China’s Reinvention of Money/End of American Dominance

Very powerful history of rise of Alipay and WeChat Pay and the future of money moving now.

John Delury, Agents of Subversion – The Fate of the CIA’s Covert War in China

Superb, near spy thriller of two captured CIA agents as a lens to our China activity post War.

Julian Gewirz, Never Turn Back: China and the Forbidden History of the 1980s

Definitive history on the rise of China through Tiananmen, and the forgotten Zhao Ziyang.

Keyu Jin, The New China Playbook; Beyond Socialism and Capitalism

Provocative look at China’s rise from the Chinese perspective from the economy to culture to tech.

Yang Jisheng, The World Turned Upside Down: History of the Cultural Revolution

Magisterial read by a great Chinese historian who pulls no punches, definitive read.

Ian Johnson, Sparks: China's Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future

Marvelous look at the brave historians/documentarians on China’s recent history.

Jonathan Pelson, Wireless Wars: China’s Dangerous Domination of 5G

A very good bookend to the superb Chip Wars, with a comprehensive tour of the history of 5G.

Susan Shirk, Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise

Superb, must-read deep dive into the history and context of Xi up through the present.

Joseph Torigian, Prestige, Manipulation and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the USSR and China

Fascinating, academic, deeply researched look at how power shifted in these leadership vacuums.

EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA

Giorgio Agamben, Where are We Now?

A provocative take of this great philosopher questioning the liberties we sacrifice in the midst of crisis.

Neal Bascomb, The Escape Artists: Daredevil Pilots and the Greatest Prison Escape of the Great War

I read in one sitting – The Great Escape of World War I, all but impossible, told like a thriller.

Burkhard Bilger, Fatherland: A Memoir of War, Conscience and Family Secret

Very personal, moving exploration of the rise of Nazism from a grandson who unpacked his family.

Elizabeth Bowen, A Time in Rome

A reflection of time in the great city from 1959 – lyrical with wonderful history and context.

Anthony Doerr, Four Seasons in Rome

A marvelous, beautifully written tour of a year of writing and young family in the great city.

Modris Eksteins, Rites of Spring

A superb overview of culture and art as an expression of the period up to and after World War I.

David Grant, The Wager: A Tale of Shipwreck, Mutiny and Murder

Riveting, novel-like history of an extraordinary mutiny and survival and government in the 19^th century.

Winston Groom: A Storm in Flanders: The Ypres Salient 1914-1918

Excellent one volume account of the battles of Ypres including Passchendaele.

Ian Krastev, After Europe

Superb step by step and provocative view of how Europe sees itself in rising political uncertainties.

Ian Krastev, The Light That Failed: Why the West Is Losing the Fight for Democracy

Extraordinarily important look at falling liberalism and rise of authoritarianism and why.

Bill Morneau, Where to From Here: A Path to Canadian Prosperity

Wonderful, sober, balanced view on the triumph of politics over substance, for any democracy.

Raoul Servais, Memories of War

Moving memoir of the great Belgium artists, and his childhood dramatically affected by World War II.

Rory Stewart, The Marches: A Borderland Journey between England and Scotland

Superb memoir in search of identities, history and connection to his father.

Callum Williams, The Classical School: Turbulent Birth of Economics in Twenty Extraordinary Lives

Comprehensive and fun overview of the most influential economists of the 19^th and early 20^th centuries.

FICTION AND LITERATURE

Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis, 2034 – A Novel of the Next World War

Action-packed, breath-taking read that so resonates with the world/trends today. A must-read warning.

Albert Camus, The First Man

A moving fictionalized and posthumous account of growing up in Algiers to the rise of rebellion.

Anthony Doerr, Cloud Cuckoo Land

A well written spin from 15th century Turkey to the present, connected by unpacking a mystery.

Fyodor Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishment

Can a “good” person do anything to a “bad” person? Who decides? Epic read.

F. Scott Fitzgerald, Tender is the Night

My favorite Fitzgerald novel by a mile – beautiful writing; deep and compelling character.

E.M. Forster, A Passage to India

I adored it, and much resonated with my own global travel. Also watched the beautiful Lean film with it.

E.M. Forster, A Room With a View

Lovely tale of appearances and what matters in Victorian England and a stunning visit to Florence.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Faust Parts I and II

Who among us is not tempted in some form each day? First read in college, more resonate now.

Graham Greene, The Confidential Agent

Gripping spy story, probably based in and around the Spanish Civil War.

Graham Greene, The End of the Affair

Poignant wrestling of forbidden lover, loss and all it touches.

Graham Greene, The Heart of the Matter

My favorite after Quite American – beautiful/gripping look at politics, love and corruption in East Africa.

Graham Greene, The Orient Express

The stories and surprising connection and drama of a collection of travelers across Europe to Istanbul.

Graham Greene, A Sort of Life

His first volume of his memoir, elegantly and amusingly written as ever; fascinating rise of the author.

V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

Beautiful, provocative, disturbing look at the mindset of identity in an unnamed African country.

Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet

A provocative fictional account of the influences that made Shakespeare and specifically Hamlet.

Olga Tokarczuk, The Books of Jacob

Nobel winner, complex/beautiful delving into family, culture, life in 1700’s eastern Europe to the War.

Voltaire, Candide        

Had not read since college, and it was magnificent. The famous last line particularly resonates now.

FILM AND THE ARTS

Louise Brooks, Lulu in Hollywood

Riveting, blunt memoir of one the greatest silent stars who lived by her own rules.

Kevin Brownlow, Napoleon: Abel Gance’s Classic Film

Superb history of one of the greatest, most influential and near forgotten movies in film history.

THE MIDDLE EAST

Roger Hardy, The Poisoned Well

A brief but comprehensive overview of European empire building from World War 1 thru 1967.

John Mack, A Prince of Our Disorder – The Life of T.E. Lawrence

Pulitzer winning biography that holds up very well over the years, deep in psychology as well as history.

David Runell, Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at a Crossroads

Very good, brief history and context of Saudi Arabia today, from a 30-year veteran analyst.

SPIRTUALITY, FAITH AND UNLEASHING OUR TALENTS AND CREATIVITY

Karen Armstrong, Buddha

Good, brief one volume overview of his life and principles by a great scholar of religion.

Ajahn Brahm, Who Ordered This Truckload of Dung? Inspiring Stories for Welcoming Life’s Difficulties

A funny, story-filled overview of Buddhist perspective on daily encounters with ego, pain and others.

Viktor E. Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning

Re-read this epic experience in concentration camps and finding meaning in whatever life throws.

Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People are Divided by Politics/Religion

Superb, uncomfortable, data-filled look at our inherent biases and how to engage responsibly.

Thich Nhat Hanh, The Heart of the Buddha’s Teaching

A good, accessible tour of the great man and his teachings.

Ryan Holiday, The Obstacle is the Way

An overview for working through challenges in life through the lens of the stoics.

Byron Katie, Loving What Is: Four Questions That Can Change Your Life

Readable, anecdotal tour of re-framing voices in one’s head, and the stories we tell ourselves.

Kevin Kelly, Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I wish I’d known Earlier

Wonderful, wise almost proverbs of counsel I, too, wish I had earlier from a great thinker and writer.

Karen Kingston, Clear Your Clutter with Feng Shui

Superb book that has inspired me to clear out so much junk, hence clearing out my thinking/spirituality.

Daniel Pink, A Whole New Mind

Written in 2005 that the right-brain will rule the future. Good guide on why, now with a new world of AI.

Sogyal Rinpoche, The Tibetan Book on Living and Dying

Very moving reflections on Buddhist principles in terms of processing death and its lessons for life.

Martin Schreiber, My Two Elaines

Deeply personal journey as a caregiver for a spouse with Alzheimer’s. Jarring and constructive.

David Von Drehle, The Book of Charlie: The Remarkable American Life of a 109 year old man

Part bio of a stoic time in the mid-west of America, part wisdom of a special life and friendship.

TECHNOLOGY, SCIENCE AND BUSINESS

Derek Cheung/Eric Brach, Conquering the Electron – Geniuses, Visionaries, Egomaniacs, Scoundrels

Wonderful overview through the rise of Silicon Valley; amazing salute to innovation/business.

Richard P. Feynman, Surely, You’re Joking Mr. Feynman! Adventures of a Curious Character

Marvelous, readable memoir of one of the great physicists, observers of people and BS.

Freeman Dyson, Disturbing the Universe          

One part memoir, one part reflection on science, poetry and the world – brilliant read.

James Gleick, Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman

Gleick’s The Information is one of my favorites, and he does it again in this excellent biography.

Will Guidara, Unreasonable Hospitality

One of the best books I’ve read on brand building and culture in any organization.

Azra Raza, The First Cell: And the Human Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last

Accessible, crucial, disturbing look at how we think about, pursue, accept cancer and how to discuss it.

William Thorndike, The Outsiders: Eight CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success

Now a bit dated, but wonderful overview of the best CEOs of the end of the last century.

Vinod Thomas, Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change

Concise, data filled argument for calling major weather events as climate, and building plans now.

Timothy C. Winegard, The Mosquito: A Human History of our Deadliest Predator

Nothing has killed close to this carrier of malaria and more, a tour of its defining effects across history.

Special thanks for the recommendations and shared learning from: Herb Allen; Marc Andreesen; Lucas Bagno; Jen Balderama; Adi Berlia; Melissa Bethell; Shelby Bonnie; Marcus Brauchli; Randy Castleman; Bryan Chan; Connie Chan; Priyanka Chaurasia; Martin Chorzempa; Matt Clifford; Sandy Coburn; Heather Conley; Helene Cooper; Agnes Crawford; Hank Crumpton; Katherine Feghali; Nate Fick; Suzy Fry; Marc Grossman; Jorge Guajardo; Robert Hayes; David Hoffman; Reid Hoffman; Ben Horowitz; Vinod Khosla; Vina Lervisit; Dar Manaavi; Maricris; Bill Morneau; Mary Beth Morrell; Michael Morrell; Craig Mullaney; Steven Myers; Shannon O’Neil; Mina al Oraibi; Evan Osnos; Sarah Pasetto; Jim Pinkerton; Shane Sagor; Elaine Schroeder; Julia Schroeder; Catherine Scoville; Tom Smith; Andrew Stevens; Van Taylor; Vinod Thomas; Dan Twining; Will Wechsler; Bob Zoellick

I’m not sure the world needs one more pontification about AI. Suffice it to say, like all tech revolutions, it is somewhat overestimated in the short run and significantly underestimated for the long run. At the same time, we are in utterly new waters without precedence.

“This is the fastest consumer adopted technology in history” or “this may be as big as mobile or the internet or whatever previous tech” is a clear warning tell for me that the speaker is understandably seeking analogy and not understanding what is happening.

We are in the earliest pitches of the earliest inning. When the tech leaders of all this came to Washington recently, I took a few around to meet senior policy friends. One said almost parenthetically, “Throughout recent history new technology moves exponentially and then appears to level off – I’m seeing not even a sign of that here, in fact I see acceleration.” Another, “It’s pretty clear we know what GPT 5 will look like, even GPT 6. Anyone who says they have a clue what GPT 7 will be is lying.”

We have technology making technology. That about says it all.

I experienced when in journalism, and what I have long seen in Washington, how stove piped we become among central actors and decision makers. There is this thing called “policy” which is somehow noble and intellectual; over there is something called “politics” which is unseemly and gossipy but necessary to have policy; over there is something called “business” which is all profit motive, if not venal; and WAY over there is something called “tech” which is about some “change the world” hubris.

In fact, and never more than now, the Venn diagram among these has never been greater and understanding how they interconnect on their terms and can co-author solutions is essential in society generally, but certainly in getting our minds and hands around AI.

I have turned my attention to this overlap, especially globally, and it has been eye opening to say the least. Each actor moves to their immediate incentives; understanding of what is happening on the ground is too often limited or absent; narrative bias reigns; our in-boxes are too full to think beyond the next week; and, thus, medium to long term strategic thinking are all but absent.

But we must keep at it.

Last month I was in Paris and had a sit down with a wonderful leader in AI previously at JP Morgan and now with Mozilla AI, Victor Storchan. He understands these shifts well and contributes to a new publication for a new generation of policy makers, business and tech leaders and thinkers Le Grand Continent.

The TL; DR is:

- the strategic/geopolitical importance of mastering AI innovation and infrastructure as a key to global leadership and all future interaction.

- the emergence of new AI players/competitors beyond US and China like India and the UAE and how they increasingly cooperate with China and beyond.

- the opportunities for US-EU normative co-authorship on AI and tech innovation with potentially boosting spill-over effects on education and the economy.

- the dual impact of AI on fake news: both an accelerator of fake news and a huge potential for identifying/tackling them.

- that collectively we have a choice to focus on the extraordinary opportunities, not only any risks, and to do so strategically for the medium and long term.

Our original chat can be in found in French here – and I had it translated and gently edited for context (yes in part through GPT 4, but not exclusively) as follows:

What does the world of AI look like? This is precisely the question answered by Christopher Schroeder, former CEO of washingtonpost.com and healthcentral.com, essayist, and tech investor globally and in Silicon Valley. From the evolution of Sino-American rivalry to the future of information, he provides insights into the trends that are already shaping our world.

Will AI accentuate technological disparities and the segmentation of a world compared to what we have known before? Is it relevant to speak of European, Chinese, or American AI?

The ready-made answer is that it is still very early to have a retrospective analysis, but there is no doubt that there is at least a very American approach and a very Chinese approach – and they will likely be setting the rules of the road globally technologically. Policy and regulation will be another matter as countries and regions are stepping up. It is unclear as we’ve seen in underlying infrastructure (5g, cloud computing capabilities etc.) if there will be possibilities for interconnection and how.

In the end AI leadership is very much about massive financial capital, massive access to energy and GPU, and the best world class talent. The United States and China have a huge advantage in this field, but other countries could surprise us.

I asked the same question to someone heavily involved at a high level in AI in the United States. He agreed but added that, in his opinion, there would be surprises. Besides London and the UK, with its prominent universities—Cambridge, Oxford, etc.— and companies like DeepMind, and India, we should keep an eye on United Arab Emirates. I closely followed the UAE in my work in the field of technology and innovation. They were, of course, the first country to have a Minister of AI. A few years ago, this was considered almost naïve or about publicity, but, in fact, it was extremely visionary. The minister was the real driving force behind efforts there and globally. They have the money, energy, and resources and do not have a narrow vision of AI sovereignty to geography. For example, sovereignty to the UAE (unlike much of the world) isn’t just about geographic, historic and cultural borders, but the very act of they are welcoming talent from around the world -- to attract the best AI thinkers globally to become a hub in this field. It's a fascinating strategic choice to acknowledge that sovereignty cannot be simply defined by geographic nationality in the coming world.

Are you concerned about a potential divergence between the United States and Europe in terms of regulation and standards? Do you think this could harm the global AI ecosystem in the short term?

We talk about shared competitiveness as key in the world today, rightly so, but competition means not always agreeing. It's about knowing who we are competing with. Often, competitiveness is thought of as simply a matter of opposition between the United States or the West, and China. However, there is competition among all sovereign nations, which implies disagreement. I believe we need to accept this reality. It is then essential to realize that, in the new world we live in, the best way to find common ground is through a new kind of co-authorship – here’s our interests, here’s where we agree, here’s where we don’t, where we do agree is a large and wide space so let’s have at it.

One thing clear in my travels is people everywhere are asking whether they want to witness once again American technology setting the rules for the entire world. Technology is anywhere, talent is everywhere, and countries have more choices – China and beyond. I believe American leadership will be more powerful and relevant in these new realities if it makes room for co-authorship. I think it is entirely understandable that Europe and certain European countries consider it might be time to seek different paths on core issues. But I think when it comes to the unique aspects of AI, thoughtful, considered co-authorship is essential for all parties.

Concerning regulatory coordination between jurisdictions, a first issue is that many regulatory actors lack the necessary experience to fully understand the new nature of the technology ahead of us. Secondly, this is one of the first times in history that regulation is trying to anticipate the possible consequences of technology. It's as if there were an international nuclear energy agency or a nuclear regulatory industry before a bomb exploded, or before reactors were created. So, it's unusual but also interesting and with these capabilities likely necessary: even the tech business leaders – those who historically “ask permission later” are taking a certain lead. There is, therefore, an interesting co-authorship between businesses and regulators, both in the United States and in Europe. The challenge is in the short-term incentives driving policy and political actors, and a proclivity to focus regulation on what can go wrong while containing the historic opportunity to change millions of lives for good.

Also, in all the uncertainty, I believe there is a real warning to be issued: in the realms of sovereignty and competitiveness, we are also losing sight of what we share. Between Europe and the United States, and well beyond, we share common values that, in my opinion, make us unique in being able to co-construct the rules of a very new technology once again.

The two major powers in AI, China and the United States, have diametrically opposed political systems. What is the significance of the role of political regimes in the AI race?

There are two ways to look at this question, which applies to technology in general as much as AI. Silicon Valley — and I think many Americans including me — believes that innovation rises best in open societies that embrace risk, rule of law and debate. Many here generally consider that centralized and planned innovation will always have its limits. When it comes to disruptive innovation, most technologies used in the world historically have their roots in more open Western societies.

But too often we in the West tend to define innovation as the bright shiny new thing. That is true also, but we underestimate the power of taking technology to a local or regional market on that market’s terms – to make products and services (to have innovation with and on top of technology) to make it enormously successful. How can one argue that in China Alipay or WeChat Pay are not innovations? An American friend recently said to me, “It’s all based on our technology!!” OK, but which country is more dominated by mobile payments and have greater services around it and adopted? Tik Tok may not have been a bright shiny new thing, but I suspect Meta and Instagram, in often copying it, might admit how innovative it is also.

Regarding AI, all this will be on steroids. And different political systems will make different choices. Some choices by China, say on use of data, may make us uncomfortable in the West but give China a competitive advantage. We already have examples with genetics or biotechnologies. I think we are right to set boundaries and not use some of the data that China might be willing to use. But we need to question ourselves and recognize that, in the context of this compromise, China may make breakthroughs in some areas where we risk lagging behind.

Currently, attention is focused on the American AI ecosystem. But how do you assess the maturity of Chinese companies and universities in the field?

I don't invest in China per se, but I constantly talk to Chinese entrepreneurs. Two things are happening. On the one hand, the energy, tenacity, and talent cannot be ignored. Sometimes the argument is made that we are ahead of them in the field of generative AI. This doesn't mean that Chinese innovators aren't using these and other new capabilities and their own in extremely strategic sectors for them, such as electric vehicles, which is undeniable and should be expected and respected.

Regarding AI more directly, Kai-Fu Lee's among many new startups, which aims to create an OpenAI for China, have to be watched. On the academic side, Tsinghua University has also demonstrated that Chinese researchers can produce competitive technology and language models. The implications for the Chinese economy over time will be as exceptional as it will be everywhere else. Part of me, perhaps naive, has always hoped that there could be common interests in applying technology in areas such as biodiversity, health or environmental issues, and even from the perspective of international stability and security. That, however, is not in the cards any time soon technologically or politically.

What could be the impact of the upcoming presidential election on the competitiveness of the United States in AI?

The question will be how new regulatory frameworks and intergovernmental discussions could be affected by whatever next administration comes. Uncertainty and regulatory ambiguity can impact the American AI ecosystem. In my own experience evaluating regulation, I've noticed that in the first draft of the European AI Act or the American Executive Order of October 30, many things are vague enough to leave a grey area about acceptable risks.  Builders and business executives alike hate lack of clarity and catch-alls like this.

It is hoped that both major parties will be convinced that we have entered a new era with unique issues to address and unleash. There are still various candidates for the election, so I think we need to remain very cautious and not draw too hasty conclusions, even about what another Biden administration—or another Democratic administration—or a Republican administration would look like.

Immigration – specifically talent immigration – will be a hot topic. For all the reasons we limit talent coming to the States, we have to also appreciate the trade-offs. Talent is mobile – Chinese and others globally – and go anywhere. Should we care if they are no longer welcome here? A very experienced friend from Singapore said to me, "What is the best thing that has happened to the Chinese AI industry in the last ten years? Your immigration policy!" We may be fine with this, but certainly it should be part of the debate politically.

One of the great advantages of the American experience is that it has managed to open its doors to the best talent from around the world and has facilitated access to these talents. It has allowed them to succeed relatively easily, and anything that can hinder this advantage, for political or other reasons, in my opinion, is akin to shooting oneself in the foot. This openness to talent is an extraordinary asset of America and the West and is being embraced elsewhere. How many hundreds of thousands of high skilled jobs are sitting empty in Europe and the US?  How many Nobel laureates from Europe have received their prize while pursuing an academic career in Canada, the United States, or elsewhere?

According to Sam Altman, the Gulf region could "play a central role in this global conversation (on AI)." What repercussions can the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have on the technological ecosystem?

The current, brutal situation obviously creates enormous uncertainty, which is detrimental to any innovation ecosystem. I think we have learned over time that there are deep structural issues in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world. These include not only economic instabilities but also how countries treat each other and how they treat their own citizens.

Over the past two decades, we may have thought that technology would be a solution to all these problems, but that has not happened. Technology and innovation are tools that are amoral, not immoral, and fit into the political realities in very different ways – but they are not answers alone. That being said, extraordinary things are happening in the Gulf, especially in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which want to rely very deeply on these technological capabilities as tools to align the region more closely with the potential also existing in the new 21st century.

How do you see AI transforming the media industry and the way journalism is done?

I come in part from a journalistic background where I led a company in the sector. I am a bit old-fashioned on this issue because I believe that in our time, facts are important, and the role of journalism is to make us uncomfortable and push us to think about new things as they are. If I were to make a prediction about the impact of AI on political campaigns globally, I would say that we are heading towards a massification of fake news at an unprecedented rate. All modalities will be used—text, but also images or videos—to diminish people's ability to understand what is really happening.

We already see these elements in the terrible situation in Israel and Palestine. It's difficult to know what is true. The role of journalism is more important than ever, but we will also see significant benefits from the use of AI in journalism. We will be able to fact-check in ways we've never been able to before, to confirm whether something is false or not through AI. If I were leading a media organization today, I would work closely with journalists to ask the fundamental question, which is somewhat the fundamental question posed by AI: what does it really mean to be human? There are things that AI can honestly do better than humans in journalism. It should be their co-pilot. Conversely, AI currently lacks intuition and journalistic sense. There are significant opportunities to explore the complementarity between journalism and artificial intelligence.

I first visited Poland in the spring of 1990. Having been back twice – once over a decade ago, and just last week – the stunning progress is nothing short of improbable if not impossible.

What I remembered most from my first visit was the near euphoria that came with the historic ending of decades of communism – that all was possible and achievable. In my venture life, it is a well-known that everyone loves seed stage companies, whose futures are a blank slate and all in our imaginations. Things become less lovey-dovey a few years in when results, usually, bring us to reality. What Poland has achieved economically defied the most optimistic scenarios, but it has not been an easy ride.

This was a perfect time to be in Warsaw considering the impressive win of the more centrist Civic Coalition, whose scale of victory surprised even the winners, and instantly made them the mantel and model across the West for holding back the rise of extremism far right or left.

How intriguing it was for me to find in this shift less euphoria than hard-nosed, pragmatic concern. As of my visit, the new Prime Minister Tusk and his government were not yet in place, and the outgoing Law and Justice Party (PiS) was putting up a fight - though unlikely to change anything - buying time to stall reform. To a person I met in what is likely the new government and business communities, there was worry about the Presidency still in the hands of the old order, that with local elections in April there was tremendous pressure to show something (anything) that resembles progress. I was repeatedly warned that we in America among others underestimate how much institutional change has happened – in the courts and regulatory agencies of the prior government – that would not make new, sustainable change easy.

I found this soberness repeated across travels to Rome, Berlin, Paris, Warsaw, and London meeting with many leaders in the business, technology, and policy worlds. For many this soberness is synonymous with somberness, but for me it is also encouraging. The uncertainty of our polycrises worlds weighs heavily. At the same time, these are moments of opportunity looking at the world as it is, candidly assessing the lessons of these crises, understanding that technological change offers as much opportunity as risk, and that that which binds the region, America and other parts of the world dwarfs what divides us.

To the degree that one can paint Europe with a broad brush – a risky proposition at the best of times – a few surprises captured my attention in their consistency.

The rise of the right is much more nuanced than many appreciate. In Rome I heard repeatedly that Prime Minister Meloni is as nuanced and sophisticated politician as Italy has seen since Draghi – she knows when to pull the populist levers in politics but also has deliberately built a coalition of support and ministers from a broader conservative base in governance. She has, surprisingly to some, known how to engage with and garner support from Brussels and NATO. She knows when and how to pick her battles. Hers is a playbook well beyond nativistic, populist political pleadings – as effective as they are – pushing more that she can deliver the goods by attacking where the status quo has not. Hers is a playbook of political success that with their own versions may be modeled elsewhere.

The migrant issue has been front and center across Europe, especially in more rural areas and in the eastern part of Germany, but there is an irony. Much to my surprise was my inability to find hard evidence – and I spoke with politicians and researchers alike – that a single job has been lost to an increase in migrant workers. In fact, many countries in Europe have significant employment requirements – especially in tech, service, and health care sectors – almost impossible to meet without more immigration. But the burden on infrastructure and resources is real, and where people come from, and how they integrate, appears to be the greatest challenge. “There is some racism to all this,” one expert told me, “But that is also too simple. Certain communities, certainly from Ukraine but including Muslims, have integrated well and are a part of society (though there is a belief that most Ukrainians will leave as soon as they can), others less so. That is the thing to watch and has been most successfully manipulated politically despite the data.”

Political power often seems as much about keeping coalitions together in the face of weaker opposition than a clear measurable agenda. I was told in Germany that the leading coalition, which has many differences, is held together by a kind of “mutual assured destruction” – that the outcome of breaking with the coalition significantly outweighs the benefits of cohesion. Ironically, opposition in many countries has been relatively weak or disorganized, and yet nearly everyone I met is worried over time about the rise of the far right or far left. They know if in both perception and reality electorates think of government at best out of touch, at worst a rigged insider game, vacuums will be filled by those who articulate a path out of existing challenges. Holding on to power and a status quo in the name of preserving democracy – let alone one’s own political hide -- won’t be enough. One journalist said to me: “It all boils down to the economy, energy and migration. All with a leaning towards anti-incumbent.”

A new uneasiness around China has risen rapidly. Even a few months ago, European leaders would tell me that America should stop trying to force them to choose between China and America. They made it clear that with the significant economic engagement there, independent strategies towards China were a better way to get the best out of it rather than being “America’s lackey.” One European minister said to me in the spring: “NATO is for security, but China is for the markets.” I heard almost none of that now. Economic reliance remains, but any reliance is cause for reassessment. The rise of Huawei and 5G, the rush for critical minerals, and significant Chinese investment in ports have created a pause. One executive in the automotive worlds told me: “We have done business in China for decades very successfully, but when you see a beautiful, $5,000 electric vehicle coming, it tends to focus the attention.” And yet I met other executives who want to make hay while the sun shines in the short term, noting that China’s central planning will hinder its own innovation – sounding for me like many US automakers dismissing Japan in the 1990s.  One diplomat told me: “Resilience is the key term. We are seeking more intradependence than interdependence. There are shared interests – we should not talk about decoupling. But now is the opportunity to re-align with those who share our values, rule of law, predictability, and reliability.”

“Sovereignty” – always a watch word in Europe – has taken on new meaning from Covid and War. The inability to quickly manufacture masks or vaccines, the massive reliance on Russian energy and spike in energy prices, has been an enormous wakeup call here. Near shoring takes on special meaning for new opportunity, and many countries – especially in the East of Europe – are vying against places as far flung as Vietnam to Mexico to offer reliable, affordable solutions for their own supply chains all the while seeking who their best allies and trading partners will be over time.

Government regulation – at the local, state, national and European level – is among the top weights on economic growth and technological innovation. I met with nearly 100 early-stage tech entrepreneurs, each with stories on the difficulty in registrations, tax law, bureaucratic paperwork, ability to hire and fire and encourage hard work all embedded in their lives. The larger company executives had their own examples but also the scale and resources to navigate it. The young entrepreneurs are more mobile, and willing to leave if they cannot succeed – and represent some of the highest and most desired engineering talent globally. One German tech CEO said to me, “Unicorns are not the only measure of success of a tech ecosystem, but they tell you something and are models for the next generation of builders on how to succeed. There have been less in Europe than Israel, and some of those moved to America when they wanted to scale.” Another said to me, “Even in manufacturing – for which Europe is proud – how many multi-country Airbuses have there been built in the last decade? It’s all weighed down by regulation. We need a coherent, clearly stated agenda of opportunity.”

Government regulation looks at innovation from the lens first of what can go wrong, and not enough from what can go right. There was a fascinating, generational pull I observed in my travels that I often see in Washington, DC often around AI. It still never ceases to amaze me that this is the first unprecedented technological change where executives and government alike are trying to regulate it before we really know what it is. Said one AI investor in Berlin: “So, the EU, yet again, is the first out of the box with vague rules and frameworks that defines the varying levels of risk, but not that we will cure cancer with this technology.”

There is a welcoming and a new essentialism to relations with and leadership from the United States, but a desire for co-authorship. There was significant concern expressed about our commitment over time in Ukraine, especially with the additional war in the Middle East and in potential shifts politically in our own elections. One minister told me bluntly, “The world is a less safe place when you turn inward.” The Inflation Reduction Act still bristled many not so much for its substance – some said to me they wished they had their own policies to make their markets more attractive – but in style. “There was really little discussion in advance of it,” noted one politician, “And it felt like America will do what it likes, taking Europe for granted. We have choices now globally but want the right dynamic with your country. The transatlantic relationship has never been more important – but requires fewer surprises.” Another said to me, “Let us not brush aside how many differences there are also – we cannot push those under the rug. But it allows for us to acknowledge those differences while focusing what we collectively share.” Another noted, “At least the IRA was not a regulatory race to the bottom – piling on regulations and protectionism to relieve every grievance or concern – but a kind of race to the top. It’s about opportunity in a very changed environment – we should be able to find common ground in opportunity.” One diplomat reminded me: “Overall relationships are the best we’ve seen in years. We just can’t take it for granted. Relationships take work.”

The Transatlantic relationship is bigger than the geographic confines of Europe and America. Large players like India and Japan, and new economic opportunities across what is lazily named the “global south,” was front and center in almost every meeting I had on business and the economy. This, too, requires its own co-authorship, its own meeting of rising players on their terms. One minister told me, “One cannot have a China strategy without having a BRICS/rising economy strategy. China is and will play there. We will have to. And they will not want to choose sides, so we must be competitive.”

War in the Middle East was uniformly held as both tragic and the home of the greatest potential black swans. Every country I visited had a different emphasis and approach, France being most engaged both with their history in the region and demographic concerns at home, Germany fully supporting Israel (“Never again is now” resonated in several meetings). All worried about uncertainty and escalation on the ground and politically in their own backyards.

Climate seems as much now about mitigation and adaptation. Several people told me there are so many crises in the here and now, that addressing the serious climate concerns needs a new presentation. People tire of the abstract of the world coming to an end but can understand when change is presented in terms of jobs, infrastructure, and wealth creation. Ironically, at a time where France not only advocates for its leadership in nuclear energy – and believes this is a significant area for startups and innovation – and Poland is examining the France model for themselves, but Germany also just shut off its last reactor.

I was struck by the consistency on where challenges lie, and how each nation is navigating their own version of economic fragility in a multi-crisis world. Out of necessity and incentive, but also by choice, we are collectively glued to short term focused political realities and overly full inboxes that leave little time to plot for the medium and longer term. Creating breathing space to be longer term and strategic has never been more essential.

Competitiveness can be vague catch all term, but I have become convinced is the very framing for bringing the issues above together into something strategic and actionable across a new transatlantic era. It has special importance not only in today’s immediate concerns, but also in the medium and longer term societal, geopolitical, economic, and technological shifts in our midst.

I came back from my travels more convinced than ever that the European and America economic ties - always crucial - have a new essentialism in a world with at least five premises:

First, the very foundations of democracy and rule of law are being actively questioned and

challenged - at home and abroad – both because governance does not consistently deliver the goods and there are significant actors who want to leverage any weakness to divide us.

Second, competitiveness means we won’t always agree but, what we share, and our potential together, significantly outweighs this. It requires ever better and regular communication and a new “co-authorship” of skills and ideas in a new world.

Third, China underscores that the time is now. At one level it offers great opportunity to strengthen the transatlantic strategic vision together and to engage in the “rise of the rest” globally. At the same time, it invites creativity in that we all can benefit from economic opportunities with China more strongly together, while acknowledging and addressing that there are real shared interests (climate, pandemic, broader stability) impossible to resolve independently.

Fourth, AI and advances in genomics, genetics, energy, space and more open an ability to re-imagine what is possible to meet our challenges with greater speed, efficacy, and reach. Policy and regulatory making should start here.

Fifth, never has it been more important to find the common language and ground among policy making, politics, business, and technology. Historically leaders in these fields tend to be siloed in their own communities, interests, and language. The overlap and connection among them all are the only way to make progress and broaden the base of opportunity.

One way of looking at this period of uncertainty is that history has given us, who share so much in values, history, culture, interests, and economic opportunities an enormous tail wind.

We have to decide whether to take it or fly in the face of it.

So let us here resolve that Dag Hammarskjold did not live, or die, in vain. Let us call a truce to terror. Let us invoke the blessings of peace. And as we build an international capacity to keep peace, let us join in dismantling the national capacity to wage war. – John F. Kennedy

I doubt that there are many people who remember Dag Hammarskjold in America. As he rose to be the second, and perhaps most influential Secretary General of the UN, even his biographer later noted his rise was "that of a brilliant economist, an unobtrusive technician, and an aristo-bureaucrat."

Despite his rise from public obscurity, Eisenhower was to acknowledge that he knew no man who worked harder, and President Kennedy is believed to have said: “…in comparison to him, I am a small man."

I suppose there are many reasons to learn about him in these days of uncertainty and rise of a very new global order societally, politically, economically, and technologically. It was a mark of his commitment to look at the world bottom up – to understand rising nations coming out of decades of colonialism and war on their own terms – that when he died prematurely in a plane crash in 1961 rumors began (that provocatively continue today) that he was assassinated for disrupting the old order.

I learned only recently, and am embarrassed I did not know this sooner, that while he never wrote a memoir, he did keep something perhaps more revealing of him. And more useful today for those of us contemplating our motivations, purpose, and what we build and why.

His posthumously published Markings are one-part spiritual wrestling, one part admonishment, one part haiku and one part as we like to share on social media today: “top rules to live by.”  He began writing down brief reflections in his twenties and did so up until his death.

I will post my annual writeup of recommended books read in a month or two but wanted to call this one out as worthy of having on our end tables right now – not reading end to end necessarily, but picking up for reflection as we move quickly through what feels like, and very well may be, an exponentially changing and accelerating world.

Here are a few examples of many that grabbed me:

From 1925- 1930

Thus it was

I am being driven forward

Into an unknown land.

The pass grows steeper,

The air colder and sharper.

A wind from my unknown goal

Stirs the strings

Of expectation.

Still the question:

Shall I ever get there?

There where life resounds,

A clear pure note

In the silence

1950

A modest wish: that our doings and dealings may be of a little more significant to life than a man’s dinner jacket is to his digestion. Yet now a little of what we describe as our achievement is, in fact, no more than a garment in which, on festive occasions, we seek to hide our nakedness.

It is not the repeated mistakes, the long succession of petty betrayals – though, God knows, they would give cause enough for anxiety and self-contempt – but the huge elementary mistake, the betrayal of that within me which is greater than I – in a complacent adjustment to alien demands.

Don’t be afraid of yourself, live your individuality to the full. Don’t copy others in order to buy fellowship or make convention your law instead of living the righteousness. To become free and responsible. For this alone was man created, and he who fails to take the Way which could have been his shall be lost eternally.

1952

Pray that your loneliness may spur you into finding something to live for, great enough to die for.

1953

Maturity: among other things – not to hide one’s strength out of fear and, consequently, live below one’s best.

1954

Never at your destination – The greater task is only a higher class in this school, as you draw closer to your final exam, which nobody else will know about, because then you will be completely alone.

So long as you abide in the Unheard-of, you are beyond and above – to hold fast to this must be the First Commandment in your spiritual discipline.

1956

Do what you can – and the task will rest lightly in your hand, so lightly that you will be able to look forward to the most difficult tests which may be awaiting you.

Thanks to your “success,” you now have something to lose. Because of this – as if suddenly aware of the risks – you ask whether you, or anyone, can “succeed.” If you go on in this way, thoughtlessly mirroring yourself in an obituary, you will soon be writing your epitaph – in two senses.

Gratitude and readiness. You got all for nothing. Do not hesitate, when it is asked for, to give your all, which, in fact, is nothing for all.

It was when Lucifer first congratulated himself upon his angelic behavior that he became the tool of evil.

Be grateful as your deeds become less and less associated with your name, as your feet ever more lightly tread the earth.

1957

The most dangerous of all moral dilemmas: when we are obliged to conceal truth in order to help the truth to be victorious. If this should at any time become our duty in the role assigned to us by fate, how straight must be our path at all times if we are not to perish.

Clad in this “self,” the creation of irresponsible and ignorant persons, meaningless honors and catalogued acts – strapped into the straight jacket of the immediate. To step out of all this, and stand naked on the precipice of dawn – acceptable, invulnerable, free: in the Light, with the Light, of the Light. Whole, real in the Whole. Out of myself as a stumbling block, into myself as fulfillment.

He who is challenged by Fate does not take umbrage at its terms.

“To fail” – Are you satisfied because you have curbed and canalized the worst in you? In any human situation, it is cheating not to be, at every moment, one’s best. How much more so in a position where others have faith in you.

Do not look back. And do not dream about the future, either. It will neither give you back the past, nor satisfy your other daydreams. Your duty, your reward – your destiny – are here and now.

1961

Sleepless questions

In the small hours:

Have I done right?

Why did I act

Just as I did?

Over and over again

The same steps,

The same words:

Never the answer.

On the path of the others

Are resting places,

Places in the sun

Where they can meet.

But this

Is your path,

And it is now,

Now, that you must not fail.