A year ago this month, Ukraine launched one of the most bold, audacious, and successful operations of the war.

In the now legendary Operation Spiderweb, Ukraine launched 117 UAVs across Russia’s vast territory, from Murmansk in the northwest to Irkutsk in Siberia, to Amur in the Far East. The damaged and destroyed aircraft comprised approximately 20 percent of Russia’s operational long-range aviation fleet and as much as 30 percent of its nuclear ready fleet.

In many ways, Operation Spiderweb changed the trajectory of the war by ushering in a new era of Ukrainian capacity to strike deep inside Russia. But it also heralded a revolution in modern warfare, a revolution in which Ukraine is the vanguard.

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore looks at this military revolution with former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodniuk and Michael Carpenter, who served in the administration of former President Joe Biden as the NSC’s Senior Director for Europe and U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE; and in the administration of Barack Obama, Mike served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio clips opening the podcast and the second segment came from a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 10, 2026. The translations from Ukrainian are as follows:

“Today, I signed a decree establishing a new special day – the Day of the Unmanned Systems Forces. From now on, it will be observed every year on June 11. A day of our respect and gratitude to the USF. For the first time in the world, such a branch of the military was created – in Ukraine. We are developing the USF to the max, and it is Ukrainians who have proven that through technology, ingenuity, and courage, we can change the nature of warfare.”

“The Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are truly a model for many other militaries. And in recent months, we are especially grateful for the mid-strikes: Russian military logistics throughout the entire depth of the temporarily occupied territory are now within reach of Ukrainian drones. Our impact reaches Russia’s border regions as well. The enemy feels it, and we will continue to expand it.”

Andriy Zagorodnyuk’s reports, reports “The New Revolution in Military Affairs: How Ukraine is driving doctrinal change in modern warfare” and “Ukraine’s New Theory of Victory Should be Strategic Neutralization,” both of which were discussed on the podcast, can be accessed here and here. You can learn more about the Center for Defense Strategies here. Andriy Zagorodnyuk’s other recent publications can be accessed here, here, and here.

Recent publications by Michael Carpenter can be accessed here, here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.

The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

The Ukrainian military is defeating him. The Ukrainian president is mocking him. The Moldovan president is defying him. And on top of all that, the Armenian people just gave him a firm slap down at the ballot box.

One of the defining features of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s quarter-century rule has been a determined and persistent effort to reassert Moscow’s control over the former Soviet space, effectively trying to recreate the Russian Empire. But with the notable exceptions of what I’ve called Russia’s “soft annexation” of Belarus and its state capture in Georgia, Putin’s imperial project is clearly going off the rails. Putin’s empire is being interrupted.

The catalyst for this evolving failure is Putin’s flailing war against Ukraine, which has sapped Moscow’s resources and bandwidth, while at the same time forcing countries in the region to take steps to inoculate themselves from Russia’s imperial ambitions.

READ THE WHOLE COLUMN ON INDEPENDENCE AVENUE MEDIA.

One of Great Britain’s top intelligence officials warns that Russia is about to escalate its war — against Europe.

According to Anne Keast-Butler, director of GCHQ, Britain’s electronic surveillance agency, with Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine flailing, Vladimir Putin is poised to embark on a wider sabotage and assassination campaign in Europe.

The main targets include critical infrastructure and supply chains.

The warning from the GCHQ chief echoes a similar alarm raised in December by Blaise Metreweli, chief of Britain’s foreign intelligence service, MI6.

So what should we expect in Russia’s war against Europe going forward? And what is Europe doing about it?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore breaks it all down with James Sherr, an Honorary Fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security and an Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs; and former U.S. State Department official Max Bergmann, director of the Europe and Russia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who served as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff and as a speechwriter for former Secretary of State John Kerry.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

Max Bergmann’s recently published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

James Sherr’s other recently published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

There has been a noticeable vibe shift over the past couple months regarding Ukraine.

The new narrative goes something like this:

With advanced drone technology, Ukraine appears to have innovated its way out of its manpower disadvantage at the front, and as a result, Russia is quickly losing its capacity to conduct offensive ground operations.

Additionally, Ukraine’s deep strike capacity is changing the trajectory of the war, with missile and drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, command centers, and logistical hubs becoming more frequent and accurate.

So how does this new narrative correspond to the reality on the ground?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with military analyst Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Principal Research Scientist at the CNA Corporation, and a senior editor at War on the Rocks.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio clips opening the podcast and the second segment are from a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 22, 2026. The translations from Ukrainian are as follows:

“Ukraine’s positions are stronger now than in previous years. Since the beginning of the year, 590 square kilometers of our territory have been liberated and brought under our control. The trend is certainly not in the occupier’s favor. We continue to increase the rate at which Russian personnel are being eliminated, and together with sanctions in all their forms, this is forcing Russia toward diplomacy.”

“We continue our long-range operations. It is important that our frontline positions are also strong, with good results on key fronts in particular. I am grateful to all our Airborne Assault Forces and our assault troops. I am grateful to all units that are effectively repelling Russian assaults. I also thank everyone who supports our army and our Security Forces.”

Michael Kofman’s recently published work can be accessed here and here. The Russia Contingency Podcast can be accessed here. Michael Kofman’s social media threads covering the war can be accessed here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Securitycan be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

The Kremlin’s decision to dramatically scale back the military hardware on display at this weekend’s Victory Day parade on Red Square is a tacit recognition of Russia’s vulnerability to Ukraine’s deep strike capacity.

The Russian authorities have been forced to turn off the mobile Internet in Moscow and in some border regions due to Ukrainian drone strikes, disrupting daily life, impacting banking, navigation, and business operations.

And the bad news doesn’t end there.

Russian forces on the front in eastern Ukraine are now suffering more casualties than Moscow can replace with new recruits.

The economy is flailing and many experts believe Russia is on the brink of a major banking crisis.

And fractures are beginning to manifest themselves inside the Kremlin elite.

Is the war suddenly at a decisive turning point? We’ve cried wolf on this one before, but somehow this time feels different.

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore breaks it all down with Michael Carpenter, a Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who served in the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden as the NSC’s Senior Director for Europe as well as the US Ambassador to the OSCE and in the administration of Barack Obama as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia; and Casey Michel, author of the books American Kleptocracy: How The US Created the Greatest Money Laundering Machine in History, Foreign Agents: How American Lobbyists and Lawmakers Threaten Democracy Around the World, and United States of Oligarchy: How America’s Wealthiest Ally with Dictators, Weaken the U.S., and Destroy Democracy.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The article in The New York Times, “Russia in No Mood for Celebration on Kremlin’s Biggest Day of the Year,” which was referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here. Mikhail Zygar’s Substack post, “A New Battle in the Kremlin,” which was referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here. Craig Kennedy’s report, “Russia’s Hidden War Debt,” which was referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here.

Casey Michel’s article in The Kyiv Post, “We’ve overestimated Russia for too long,” which was referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here. Casey Michel’s article, “Russia Is Failing Its Allies When It Matters Most,” which was also referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here. His Substack newsletter can be accessed here. Casey’s other published works can be accessed here.

Michael Carpenter’s article in Foreign Affairs, The Post-Liberal Superpower, which was referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here. Other recent publications by Michael Carpenter can be accessed here, here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

It is not all that surprising that Moscow is scaling back its World War II Victory Day celebrations.

Ukraine’s expansion of missile and drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, command centers, and logistical hubs is demonstrating a deep-strike capacity that is changing the trajectory of the war.

Moreover, Russia is quickly losing its capacity to conduct offensive ground operations at the front in eastern Ukraine.

The confidence being projected by Ukraine’s leadership is indicative of a new era of asymmetrical warfare in which smaller states are becoming increasingly adept at thwarting great powers.

What does this new era portend?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with James Sherr, an honorary fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security in Tallinn, and John Sipher, a 28-year CIA veteran, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, a Senior Fellow at the Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence and Policy at George Mason University, and the founder of Spycraft Entertainment.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio clips opening the podcast and the second segment came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech on April 29, 2026.

The translations from Ukrainian are as follows:

“Russia’s oil sector, Russia’s military logistics, and its military production – all of these are entirely legitimate and rightful targets of our long-range sanctions. Importantly, Ukrainian warriors are also using our firepower against Russian enterprises that manufacture guided bombs. They pose a particular threat.”

“We are already observing a decrease in the use of guided aerial bombs along part of the front line. Today, I also approved our new operations – if Russia does not want diplomacy, diplomacy must be imposed on it.”

James Sherr’s article, “The Unfading Mirage of Negotiations,” which was discussed on the podcast, can be accessed here. James Sherr’s other recently published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

John Sipher’s article, “The Age of Asymmetry,” which was discussed on the podcast, can be accessed here. John Sipher’s other recently published works can be accessed here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

Ukraine has just had a string of good news, good luck, and good moves.

Viktor Orban’s crushing defeat in Hungary’s general elections, which removed Kyiv’s main antagonist — and Russia’s main ally — inside the EU captured the most attention.

But there’s more.

Ukraine signed a major agreement with Germany this week to increase its drone production.

Additionally, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine captured a Russian position on the eastern front entirely with unmanned vehicles, ground and air. In other words, Russian forces surrendered to robots.

Ukraine also launched two rockets into space this week using a flying carrier.

And this all comes on the heels of Zelensky’s widely praised tour of the Gulf states, where he negotiated ten-year agreements on exchange of technology and expertise with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

So don’t look now, but Ukraine appears to be on a roll. What does it all mean? On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks to Serhiy Kudelia, a Professor of Political Science at Baylor University and the author of the recently published book, “Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia’s War on Ukraine.”

Also on the podcast, Brian and Serhiy look back at the start of Russia’s aggression in the Donbas, which began 12 years ago this week.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio opening the podcast and the second segment came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech on April 13, 2026. The translations are as follows:

“This is what strength looks like – forged in battle, in pain, in fire. This is what protection looks like, and the will for freedom and justice. This is what quality and precision look like, excellence and long-range capability – and this is what independence looks like.”

“At the start of the war, we lacked many things – but we had you. All those who did not stand aside, who found solutions, who launched the first new production lines in hangars and garages – and there is truly nothing shameful about that.”

Serhiy Kudelia’s book, Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia’s War on Ukraine can be purchased here. Serhiy Kudelia’s other published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

Since the US and Israeli war against Iran began just over a month ago, the conventional wisdom has been that it benefits Russia and harms Ukraine.

Skyrocketing oil prices resulting from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz have replenished Russia’s coffers and funded Moscow’s war machine.

U.S. sanctions on Russian oil have been temporarily lifted in an effort to ease supply shocks.

The war in the Middle East has diverted attention away from Ukraine.

And vital air defense interceptors like Patriot missiles, which are badly needed by Ukraine, are being diverted to the Middle East.

That’s the conventional wisdom. But is it actually true? Or is the picture more nuanced?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore breaks it all down with journalist, author, and longtime Kremlin-watcher Casey Michel, head of the Combating Kleptocracy Program at the Human RIghts Foundation and author of the books American Kleptocracy, Foreign Agents, and United States of Oligarchy.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio opening the second half of the podcast is from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech on April 2, 2026.

The translation is as follows:

“If partners are ready to act, we will consider how we can strengthen them, how we can contribute our expertise, knowledge, and technological potential. It is now impossible to imagine real security without Ukraine.”

Casey Michel’s article, “Russia Is Failing Its Allies When It Matters Most,” which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here. His Substack newsletter can be accessed here. Casey’s other published works can be accessed here.

Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

TRANSCRIPT

Three decades ago, the West seemed unassailable.

The Soviet Union had collapsed and for the third time in the twentieth century, the United States and its allies had emerged victorious in a global struggle against an authoritarian foe.

And for the first time in generations, Western liberal democracy did not have an ideological or geopolitical adversary.

It was a giddy moment when anything and everything seemed possible.

But today, that heady optimism feels like a distant dream.

Thirty years after the Soviet empire ended, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the largest land war in Europe since World War II.

The liberal democratic model of governance that appeared so triumphant and invincible three decades ago is today beleaguered and on the defensive as populism, xenophobia, and authoritarian attitudes sweep Europe and North America. ​​

The world today seems as dangerous, if not more so, than during the long twilight struggle of the Cold War.

So what happened? How did we fall from the heady optimism of 1992 to the peril, malaise, and danger of today? What lessons can we learn from the post-Cold War period?

I’m Brian Whitmore, a nonresident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, an assistant professor of practice at the University of Texas-Arlington, and host of The Power Vertical Podcast.

In my new report for The Atlantic Council, Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” I attempt to address these questions.

The report argues that Western policymakers largely misunderstood the nature and intentions of post-Soviet Russia, the true implications of the globalized world that the end of the Cold War ushered in, the histories and aspirations of the other post-Soviet states colonized by Russia, and the degree to which domestic politics and international relations have become entwined in the twenty-first century—and how malign actors like Russia can exploit this interdependence.

The report is available online at atlanticcouncil.org, and I urge you to go check it out.

READ FULL REPORT HERE

Three decades ago, the West seemed unassailable. The Soviet Union had collapsed and for the third time in the twentieth century, the United States and its allies had emerged victorious in a global struggle against an authoritarian foe—and for the first time in generations, Western liberal democracy did not have an ideological or geopolitical adversary. It was a giddy moment when anything and everything seemed possible.

Today, that heady optimism feels like a distant dream. Thirty years after the Soviet empire ended, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the largest land war in Europe since World War II. The liberal democratic model of governance that appeared so triumphant and invincible three decades ago is today beleaguered and on the defensive as populism, xenophobia, and authoritarian attitudes sweep Europe and North America. ​​The world today seems as dangerous, if not more so, than during the long twilight struggle of the Cold War.

So what happened? How did we fall from the heady optimism of 1992 to the peril, malaise, and danger of today? What lessons can we learn from the post-Cold War period? Shortly before the outbreak of World War II, the British historian E. H. Carr published his seminal book The Twenty Years Crisis: 1919-1939, which examined the lessons of the interwar period. Carr argued that this era was a crisis of the international system, resulting from the failure of the old liberal order to adapt to and understand new and emergent political, economic, and military realities.

​​This report argues that a similar dynamic played out in the contemporary West in our own thirty-year crisis between the end of the Cold War and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The liberal order failed. But how? And why? In researching this report, I interviewed dozens of policymakers, analysts, and experts in Europe and North America to distill the lessons of the post-Cold War era.

READ FULL REPORT HERE

We now live in a world where the United States is picking fights with its NATO allies as it seeks rapprochement with Russia and China.

We now have an administration in Washington that is projecting the post-Liberal politics it is pursuing at home onto the global stage.

We now live in a reality where short-term transactionalism is replacing long-held values, alliances, and national interests.

So what does a world look like where the United States has become a post-liberal superpower?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with Michael Carpenter, who served as the NSC’s Senior Director for Europe as well as the US Ambassador to the OSCE in the Biden administration; and former U.S. State Department official Max Bergmann, who served as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff and as a speechwriter for former Secretary of State John Kerry.

The discussion is centered around Michael Carpenter’s article, The Post-Liberal Superpower, which was published in Foreign Affairs on March 9, 2026.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

Michael Carpenter’s article in Foreign Affairs, The Post-Liberal Superpower, which formed the basis for this episode, can be accessed here. Other recent publications by Michael Carpenter can be accessed here, here, here, and here.

Max Bergmann’s recently published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

One of the most underdiscussed aspects of the sordid case of Jeffrey Epstein has been the convicted sex offender’s potential relationship with Russian intelligence.

In 2014, Epstein befriended Sergei Belyakov, then a deputy minister of economic development who is believed to be tied to Russia’s Federal Security Service. Epstein also met regularly with Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations from 2006 until his death in 2017.

Through Norwegian, Israeli, and Slovak intermediaries, Epstein sought meetings with Putin and Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov. After the 2016 US election, Epstein reportedly offered his services to help Russia understand the new American president.

And a released FBI report that cites a confidential source claiming that Epstein helped manage Putin’s wealth.

So what was the nature of Epstein’s relationship with the Russians? Was he an agent? An asset? A useful idiot? And what does this all tell us about how the Russian intelligence and security services operate in the West?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore breaks it all down with John Sipher, a 28-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency’s National Clandestine Service. John also served as a member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and is the recipient of the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. These days, John is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, a Senior Fellow at the Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence and Policy at George Mason University, and the founder of Spycraft Entertainment.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

John Sipher’s article, “Birds of a Feather: Epstein, Trump, and Russian Intelligence,” which was discussed on the podcast, can be accessed here. His 2019 article, “Is Trump a Russian Agent?: Explaining Terms of Art and Examining the Facts,” can be accessed here. John Sipher’s other recently published works can be accessed here, here, and here.

Françoise Thom’s article, “The Cesspool and Chaos: the Russian Connection in the Epstein Affair,” which was discussed on the podcast, can be accessed here.

Brian Whitmore’s essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.

Brian Whitmore’s 2016 article, “The Great Manipulator,” which was referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

It is a condition that has reportedly afflicted more than 1,000 US diplomats, intelligence officers, and military officials serving overseas over the past decade. The symptoms include cognitive and balance issues, dizziness, insomnia, hearing loss, and severe headaches.

Officially known as Anomalous Health Incidents, or AHI, this mysterious condition has been informally dubbed Havana Syndrome because the first cases emerged in Cuba back in 2016.

And while the U.S. government has claimed that no hostile foreign government is behind the illness, new groundbreaking reporting indicates a link to an infamous assasination squad – Unit 29155 of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence.

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with veteran journalist Michael Weiss, author of the report “The biggest cover-up of my adult life’: Inside the CIA’s attempt to make Havana Syndrome disappear,” which was published this week in The Insider. Michael is the author of the Substack newsletter Foreign Office, a contributing editor at New Lines magazine, and a reporter for The Insider. He is also the author of the book ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror and is currently working on a new book about Russia’s GRU.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

Michael Weiss’ article in The Insider, “The biggest cover-up of my adult life’: Inside the CIA’s attempt to make Havana Syndrome disappear,” which was discussed on podcast, can be accessed here. His article for The Insider, “Lost in translation: How Russia’s new elite hit squad was compromised by an idiotic lapse in tradecraft,” which was also referenced on the podcast, can be accessed here. Michael’s other published work can be accessed here.

Brian Whitmore’s essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

At the time, Russian officials and even many Western analysts expected Kyiv to fall in a matter of weeks. They, of course, were wrong.

Ukraine successfully defended Kyiv and pushed Russian forces out of Kharkiv as well as parts of Kherson.

Today, the fighting is confined to the east, where it is largely deadlocked; even as Moscow continuously pounds Kyiv and other cities with deadly airstrikes on civilian targets.

So what have we learned in four years of war? What has surprised us? And what are the scenarios for an endgame?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with James Sherr, an honorary fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security; and Serhiy Kudelia, a professor of political science at Baylor University and author of the recently published book, “Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia’s War on Ukraine.”

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio clips opening the podcast and opening the second segment came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to the nation on February 24, 2026 marking the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion. The translations are as follows:

“Dear Ukrainians! Today marks exactly four years since Putin started his three-day push to take Kyiv. And that, in fact, says a great deal about our resistance, about how Ukraine has fought all this time. Behind those words stand millions of our people. Behind those words stand immense courage, incredibly hard work, endurance, and the long path Ukraine has been pursuing since February 24.”

“Looking back at the beginning of the invasion and reflecting on today, we have every right to say: we have defended our independence, we have not lost our statehood. Ukraine exists not just on the map. Ukraine is an actor in international relations.”

James Sherr’s January 2022 article for ICDS, “The Collective Putin and the Collective West, which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here. Michael Kofman’s interview with David French in The New York Times, which was quoted in the podcast, can be accessed here. Simon Shuster’s article in The Atlantic, “Elon Musk Moves Against the Russians in Ukraine,” which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here.

James Sherr’s recently published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

Serhiy Kudelia’s book, Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia’s War on Ukraine can be purchased here. Serhiy Kudelia’s other published work can be accessed here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

But nothing could be farther from the truth. In fact, the Kremlin’s approach to negotiations is best summed up in the following quote from Josef Stalin: “A diplomat’s words must contradict his deeds—otherwise what sort of a diplomat is he? Words are one thing, deeds something entirely different. Fine words are a mask to cover shady deeds. A sincere diplomat is like dry water or wooden iron.”

This is worth remembering as Kabuki negotiations over a ceasefire in Ukraine continue.

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with two veteran diplomats, former U.S. State Department official Donald Jensen, who is currently an an adjunct professor in the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences at Johns Hopkins University and an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; and Osmolovska, a 15-year veteran of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry who now serves as the head of GLOBSEC’s Kyiv office. They are the co-authors of an important, exhaustively researched, and very timely report, “Adversary at the Table: Negotiating with Putin’s Russia,” which was released this week by the Atlantic Council.

Enjoy…

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SHOW NOTES

Donald Jensen and Iuliia Osmolovska’s report “Adversary at the Table: Negotiating with Putin’s Russia,” which is part of the Atlantic Council’s paper series Russia Tomorrow: Navigating a New Paradigm, can be accessed here.

Recently published work by Donald Jensen can be accessed here.

Recently published work by Iuliia Osmolovska can be accessed here, here, and here.

Brian Whitmore’s essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

My chapter, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West” has been published in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Security (Tartu University Press).

You can access a PDF of the full book here.

One would think that Vladimir Putin is smiling when he looks at the rapidly changing US role in the world.

One would assume that the Kremlin is delighted to see the United States promoting a peace plan for Ukraine that reflects Moscow’s main demands.

One would think that the Putin regime would be over the moon as the Trump administration threatens to annex Greenland, tries to bully Canada, and drives a wedge into the transatlantic alliance.

And one would assume that Moscow is happy to see top US officials talking about the international system in terms of spheres of influence and great power politics.

One would think. But is this true? On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with Mikhail Zygar, author of the bestselling books All The Kremlin’s Men: Inside the Court of Vladimir Putin, War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky, and the Path to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and the recently published The Dark Side of the Earth: Russia’s Short-lived Victory over Totalitarianism.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

Mikhail Zygar’s highly-recommended Substack newsletter The Last Pioneer can be accessed here. His 2016 book, All the Kremlin’s Men can be purchased here. His 2023 book, War and Punishment can be purchased here. And his 2025 book The Dark Side of the Earth can be purchased here.

Mikhail Zygar’s published op-eds in The New York Times can be accessed here. His widely read article in Vanity Fair, “The Putinization of America: Can Trump and Musk Outdo Vladimir Putin?” can be accessed here. His 2024 report for The Atlantic Council, “All the autocrat’s men: The court politics of Putin’s inner circle,” can be accessed here. And his 2025 report for The Atlantic Council, “The next generation: Russia’s future rulers” can be accessed here.

The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

t’s a playbook we’ve seen the Kremlin deploy again and again. And like Charlie Brown getting tricked by Lucy with the football, we keep falling for it again and again.

The playbook goes something like this: Vladimir Putin orchestrates a manufactured crisis; Putin then pushes for dialogue to resolve said manufactured crisis; and then Putin leverages the ensuing dialogue about the manufactured crisis to extract concessions. Call it the dark art of geopolitical extortion.

We saw this play out in the 2015 migrant crisis in Europe which Russia helped create with its bombing campaign in Syria – which Russia leveraged to distract from its aggression in Ukraine and augment support for far-right, anti-immigrant, and pro-Kremlin parties.

We saw it play out again in 2021, on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine when Putin and Belarusian autocrat Alyaksandr Lukashenka manufactured another migrant crisis on Europe’s eastern border.

And according to a new report, we just saw it play out again – this time in a weeks-long drama over Russia reflagging a sanctioned tanker to prevent it from being seized by U.S. forces. What does the strange case of the Bella-1 oil tanker show us about Russia’s strategy of geopolitical extortion?

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, author of the must-read Substack newsletter Navigating Russia, where he published the recent reports “The Mystery of the Bella 1: Why Did Moscow Mount a ‘Spetsoperatsiia’ to Save a Stateless Shadow Tanker?” and “Restraining Russian Oil.”

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

Craig Kennedy’s Substack newsletter “Navigating Russia” can be accessed here. The report “The Mystery of the Bella 1: Why Did Moscow Mount a “Spetsoperatsiia” to Save a Stateless Shadow Tanker?” can be accessed here. The report “Restraining Russian Oil” can be accessed here. Craig Kennedy’s other published works can be accessed here.

The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

Volodymyr Zelensky has thrown down the gauntlet – to Europe.

In a fiery speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Ukrainian president assailed EU leaders for failing to stand up to Russian aggression on one hand and for their timid response to President Trump’s threat to seize Greenland on the other.

Zelensky’s speech came on the eve of trilateral ceasefire talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States in Abu Dhabi and in the midst of a crisis in transatlantic relations over US designs on Greenland, a crisis that has delighted the Kremlin.

And as the Kremlin seeks to exploit the transatlantic rift, Ukraine is seeking a way to survive it.

We’re in uncharted waters folks. And on The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with Michael Carpenter, a senior fellow for transatlantic affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who served in the administration of former U.S President Joe Biden as the NSC’s Senior Director for Europe as well as the US Ambassador to the OSCE; and Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who served as a deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

SHOW NOTES

The audio clips opening the podcast and the second segment came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 22, 2026. The full speech can be viewed here and the transcript can be read here and here.

An article by Julia Davis in The Daily Beast on Russia’s reaction to the Greenland crisis, which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here. Robert Kagan’s article in The Atlantic, “America vs. the World,” which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here. A transcript of the speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here.

Recent publications by Michael Carpenter can be accessed here, here, here, and here.

Recent published works and media appearances by Eric Ciaramella can be accessed here. Eric’s appearances on The Lawfare Daily podcast can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

Volodymyr Zelensky has thrown down the gauntlet – to Europe.

In a fiery speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Ukrainian president assailed EU leaders for failing to stand up to Russian aggression on one hand and for their timid response to President Trump’s threat to seize Greenland on the other.

Zelensky’s speech came on the eve of trilateral ceasefire talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States in Abu Dhabi and in the midst of a crisis in transatlantic relations over US designs on Greenland, a crisis that has delighted the Kremlin.

And as the Kremlin seeks to exploit the transatlantic rift, Ukraine is seeking a way to survive it.

We’re in uncharted waters folks. And on The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with Michael Carpenter, a senior fellow for transatlantic affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who served in the administration of former U.S President Joe Biden as the NSC’s Senior Director for Europe as well as the US Ambassador to the OSCE; and Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who served as a deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

Enjoy…

Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social

LISTEN HERE!

SHOW NOTES

The audio clips opening the podcast and the second segment came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 22, 2026. The full speech can be viewed here and the transcript can be read here and here.

An article by Julia Davis in The Daily Beast on Russia’s reaction to the Greenland crisis, which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here. Robert Kagan’s article in The Atlantic, “America vs. the World,” which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here. A transcript of the speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, which was referenced in the podcast, can be accessed here.

Recent publications by Michael Carpenter can be accessed here, here, here, and here.

Recent published works and media appearances by Eric Ciaramella can be accessed here. Eric’s appearances on The Lawfare Daily podcast can be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social

LISTEN HERE!