Last year, I tried a different style of article by analyzing five breakout first basemen that were performing well a month into the season, in order to figure out who’d be best long-term. There are some funny takes in there, but it’s the type of challenge I thought I was missing from my writing output in 2024 - all the analyses I did were far too easy. In 2025, I made a concerted effort to push the envelope a little more, which also led to “The Kids Are Alright”. I’m bringing the concept back this year, but with a sprinkle of various hitters and pitchers I find interesting, underdiscussed, or both. Let’s hope I manage a little better.

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Hitters

Chase deLauter

When I first started writing this article, deLauter was on the downswing. After 4 home runs in his first 3 games, and 5 in his first 7, his OPS hovered around .650 over the following three weeks with no bombs and just six extra base hits. His skillset never wavered in that time, though, and in the month of May, he’s found the rub of the green once again. Hopefully, his recent play has removed any doubt about deLauter’s All-Star level skill set. But regardless, here’s a blind comparison to ponder.

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Two highly touted young players are nearly indistinguishable from each other offensively. [Data from BaseballSavant]

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Player A is deLauter. Who’s Player B then? Kevin McGonigle. Their one difference is in chase contact rate, which is a gap that should close somewhat with time. Otherwise, one could argue that they are identical offensively, which isn’t particularly congruent to the current discourse, even after McGonigle’s own mini slump in recent days - if one can even call it that. McGonigle will likely end up as the better defender by default (deLauter has been a part-time outfielder), and he’s three years younger. But deLauter has the same disciplined profile with the pull and flyball rates to make him a serious, All-Star level contributor for the next several years, so long as he is on the field. Let’s book him for 4.5 fWAR/650 PA in 2026.

Moises Ballesteros

Despite great fanfare following Bregman’s 5-year/$175 million commitment to the Cubs, Moises Ballesteros has emerged as the one with the primary responsibilities in the middle of the order. His improvement in play is based on several alterations - both positive and negative - that make him likely to be a double-edged sword in at least the medium term.

The main change has been an improvement in groundball rate from 62% to just under 45%. There’s reason to believe that’s for real; his attack angle has nearly doubled, and if anything, it’s selling him a little short given his minor league rates (often <40%). Unfortunately, his other changes haven’t been as beneficial. He’s chased far more with no additional aggression over the plate, a clear downgrade in swing decisions. His 35% chase rate is poor, to say the least, and while his walk rate currently is in the double digits, something has to give. It certainly doesn’t help that he struggles when it doesn’t come at pace - a high chase rate and poor quality of contact against breakers is not an ideal duo for long-term success. Lastly, his in-zone contact rate is up 10%. While he should always have good contact rates, that’s quite the leap. He’s just 3% short of his mark in Triple-A last year, which was compiled against far inferior competition.​

The defensive end doesn’t get much better. Despite being a catcher in name, he’s only caught 10 innings, and his 5’8” stature makes him unlikely to be a game-changer at first. That makes him a long-term DH, which means he has a much stricter grading rubric. He likely will always be at least a negative on the bases as well, far from offering any sort of base-stealing threat.

It doesn’t feel like Ballesteros has a real skill to anchor his game on yet. His power is solid, but his bat speed isn’t exceptional (73.1 mph). He may lift the ball at an average rate in the long run, but his spray charts indicate that he has little intention to pull, making the power he can offer not go as far. His swing decisions have only regressed. That leaves the contact rates, but is that ever going to be elite? I’m not sure. They were great in Triple-A (87%), but it’s hard to judge how well that will correlate to long-term MLB success. He looks like a 130 wRC+ hitter at best based on the skillset, and I’d lean more towards 115-120. As a pure DH, that’s solid, but nothing overwhelming.

Dillon Dingler

Before the season started, if you asked someone which catcher would offer a .400 xWOBA while also being top-tier behind the dish a month into the season, they almost certainly would guess Cal Raleigh. While Raleigh has hit 7 home runs and played solid defense, he’s done little else, so instead, we have to rationalize the idea that Dillon Dingler is the one to fit the parameters. Even more strangely, it’s not exactly clear how he’s managed it. Hence, I’ve decided to attempt to.

Like Ballesteros, Dingler has ramped up the chase, with minimal extra in-zone aggression, but a 65.1% (?!) chase contact rate and amazing in-zone production keep him afloat. His flyball EV is up 3 mph, which is an instant aid to ever-productive barrels, and he’s managed to consistently find optimal angles against both heaters and breakers. All told, an elevated barrel rate is in order, but he has the skills to sustain a 10-12% barrel rate long term with his skills to lift.

Unfortunately, there’s a clear hole in his swing. He struggles across the board on the outer third and off the plate, and that certainly will be a subject of attack with how imperious he’s been everywhere else in the zone. Perhaps one can attribute it to his extra pull-happy strategy (which means his elite xWOBA is actually underselling his offensive level), but it was similarly problematic last season. Now, his performance there isn’t horrible, but combined with chase contact rate regression, he’ll be back to “very good” rather than “dominant” offensively.

Dingler’s whiff rates by zone in 2025 [L] and 2026 [R]. Charts originally from BaseballSavant, merged in PineTools.

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In combination with a defensive profile that is upper echelon across the board, I view Dingler as a clear contender for being in the top 50 right now. There are around 10.5 months before that list is finalized on my end, but a clear positive contributor with the bat that can also play prolific defense behind the plate is the sort of skillset that demands great admiration. Without significant injury, I believe he’ll reprise a 5 fWAR/650 PA pace this year, but with the benefit of a greater lean towards offensive value, which is more predictable year-to-year.

James Wood

Wood was a tale of two halves in 2025. In the first half, he was insatiable, with a .389 xwOBA, 24 HR, and a 14% walk rate across 95 games. Most critically? A 27% strikeout rate. He was 9th in cumulative fWAR among hitters, directly above Juan Soto. In the second half, he was invisible. The whiff was immense, and with little return - his strikeout rate barely avoided the 40% mark, he clocked just 7 homers, and his fWAR was a measly 0.1. It appeared that the best path for Wood was to hammer out his whiff issues, especially vs. secondaries, to unlock his potential. Everything else is there: the power, the discipline, the performance against heaters.

Instead, he leaned into it. His whiff rate against breakers was his highest ever within a month in April (57%), and May hasn’t offered much better (50%, 4th). Against offspeed, it’s slightly improved (37%), and I’d deem it an acceptable level for his output. The results, at least so far, have justified the whiff, though. His EVs are through the roof, averaging close to 97 mph, and against fastballs, it’s nearly triple digits. That performance against fastballs is the real award-winner with an xWOBA of .527. Woof.

As you might guess, I’m not thrilled about his whiff rates getting worse. There are some positives; he’s far more patient, and his groundball rate is 41%, far better than the poor 50% from last year. But how long can one slug .800 vs fastballs? Even a major improvement on his .424 xWOBA vs heaters last year would be insufficient to keep him solvent with the slightest decline against secondaries. It seems like a hot stretch that may end much in the way it did in last year’s second half. Brutally.

He remains a capable baserunner, but a complete black hole in left field. That makes him a DH in all but name, but Wood’s offensive ceiling and platoon-neutral splits make that easily justifiable. For a prediction, I’ll say that he ends slightly better than I expected entering the year (I had him ~70th then), and is a serious contender for a top 50 placement based on upside. That’d be around 3.5 fWAR/650 PA (last year he posted ~3), and a clear step forward. There’s no shame in small steps; he only turns 24 in September.

Pitchers

Chase Dollander

A highly sought-after pitching prospect in college, his selection by the Rockies in the draft cost him some of his hype, an organization not known for its cutting-edge player development or pitcher-friendly ballpark. 2025 didn’t help that perspective, either, with a decent 4-seam/sinker/curve mix that got little help from his poor execution (7.5% K-BB%). But things move fast with modern pitching development, and Dollander has become a seriously dangerous pitcher with several synchronized improvements in his repertoire.

First, he’s up 1-1.5 mph on every offering. Yes, he’s worked exclusively in relief thus far, but only one appearance has been under 70 pitches, and the velocity has held right around 100. Such a leap is even more astonishing given the baseline: 98 mph on the 4-seam, 97 on the sinker, 89 on the changeup. Correspondingly, his whiff rate has jumped by over 10% on three different pitches (4-seam/change/curve).

Second, he’s improved his decision-making with his weapons. He turns to the sinker twice as often against both sides (~20%), and he’s begun to use more changeups right-on-right. That combination lets his 4-seam, which is pure velo and carry, drop to only one-in-three usage, and it’s thrived in that space. 35% chase, 30% whiff, and 72% zone contact rate is an incredible trio of metrics for a 4-seamer that is heavily weakened by elevation half the time.

He’s also added a hard slider at 88 with good drop that creates lots of groundballs with strong location. This is the one inclusion I’d question: it’s used 15% of the time versus all adversaries, but it doesn’t have the shape to be platoon-neutral (6 inches of sweep), or the tunnel with the 4-seam (18 inch horizontal difference) to act in that function. A gyro slider shape could be killer for this role, especially with his great ability to push velocity. Is a 90 mph gyro with -2 vert/-2 horizontal out of the question? That would be money, especially at altitude.

Lastly, he’s added a “lift sweeper,” a new twist on the sweeper that offers less sweep (generally 10-12 inches) for a good amount of carry (usually ~5). Most sweepers are about neutral vertically, if not negative. Dollander’s has 10 inches of sweep with 5 of rise at 86, making it a truly great option that I have zero qualms with. I suspect the 8% usage vs RHB will rise before the end of the season.

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Above: Fastball variations by SP at 95+ mph with more flat attack angles than Dollander’s. Notably, Dollander’s sinker is better by this metric than any other sinker.

Below: Sweepers by SP at 83+ mph with more IVB than Dollander’s sweeper. Eury Perez places first [Source for both: Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard v8]

Additionally, he has begun executing at a higher level. The 4-seam has established a residence at the top of the zone, landing there over 60% of the time, and the slider and curve consistently find the bottom third. The strike rates aren’t outstanding, but they’re more than good enough. I don’t think his recent 5-walk start against the Phils, which offered a strike rate well short of any of his prior outings, is of any legitimate concern.

I think Dollander has made a giant leap forward. He has everything he needs to succeed now, and it’s just about refining things a little further. At present, I have him as a top 30 SP (despite often being a bulk reliever) who, unfortunately, takes a big statistical haircut from playing half his games in Denver. Is it blasphemous to say that he’s not much worse than, say, 2025 Cam Schlittler? That was a top 25 pitcher in my mind. The bottom line is that you can’t fake elite velo and shapes with good command across 37 innings. Dollander is the sort of pitcher that people envisioned Bubba Chandler to be; he’s just gotten there first while garnering a legit 6 pitch arsenal.

Landen Roupp

Once an acquisition from my simulated tenure with the Minnesota Twins, Landen Roupp has surpassed my expectations with relatively minor modifications. It’s more cutters in the diet, now altered to not have reverse movement (a feature that I continue to struggle to evaluate), and instead have an outlier amount of drop.

Otherwise, it’s the same old Roupp. Curves and changeups that have a timeshare below the zone (he has had three changeups in the upper third or above the zone all year, out of 121 thrown), and the sinker remains an effective groundball inducer. His average bat speed has improved by around half a mile per hour, which is a metric that indicates how well a pitcher can “fool” the batter, but that’s small potatoes overall.

I don’t think Roupp is the 3.20 ERA pitcher that’s been showcased so far. He’s very susceptible to the performance of balls in play; teammate Logan Webb has demonstrated that can be an elusive mistress, and while his 21% K rate last year was probably a little unfortunate given his approach aims for so many chases, he lacks any clear whiff pitches notwithstanding future positive regression (his curve is tops at 33%). I’d give him a 3.80, identical to last year, but that took some good fortune. Roupp’s gameplan will earn him that mark this time.

J.R. Ritchie

Ritchie is the prototypical pitcher of 2026: lots of pitches with fairly balanced usage, especially against the weak-side matchup. I called him more interesting than Didier Fuentes in response to a public inquiry from Josh Lloyd about prospects imminent for promotion, himself a very well-known basketball analyst, and despite an underwhelming start to Ritchie’s career, I still hold that belief.

Most interesting in his arsenal is his 82.5 mph curveball, which gets great two-plane movement despite its pace. It’s the sort of offering that will shore up his matchup vs LHB in the years ahead, capable of stealing strikes and obtaining whiffs down in the zone.

The fastball is not much better than average, if it is at all, but it manages strong separation with the changeup and sinker to make up for it. With the changeup, it’s 15 inches despite just a 6 mph difference in velocity. With the sinker, it’s 9. Ritchie found himself turning to the sinker often vs RHB, 45%, but despite great results, he didn’t show great feel for the pitch. Many pitches leaked well above the zone, and correspondingly got few chases (15%, league average is 27%). The changeup was even worse-placed, only getting down-and-away twice in 42 opportunities. It often was up and out or low and in, and while it, too, got solid chase, it got pounded on contact.

Bringing up the rear are a cutter and slider. The slider is below average, not offering anything interesting beyond a good tunnel with the 4-seam. Its 11% usage against RHB is a reflection of the state of its affairs. He doesn’t trust it at all. The cutter offers the same retrograde motion Roupp’s used to, but it’s quite underwhelming outside of that.

Ritchie has a clearly great foundation with his 4-seam/changeup/curveball/sinker combo. As those strengthen, the cutter and slider will likely be phased out (they were never phased in much to begin with). Ritchie has simply struggled to keep his pitches competitive - his recent game vs the Mariners was especially poor, with a 25% and 12.5% zone rate for the 4-seam and changeup, respectively, and just one pitch over the typical benchmark for a solid strike rate, 60%.

All the same, I think there’s something good here. It may take a couple of months, or even a year, to sort itself out (making it not much of a potential breakout), but the arsenal is much more cohesive than Fuentes’s, and many pitchers in general on debut. Pitchers are too erratic to be viable until they aren’t, and there’s no reason to believe Ritchie can’t get his finer details in order with time.

Mick Abel

If I were picking my breakout pitcher from the early part of 2026, Mick Abel would certainly be the frontrunner. An interesting starter last year, Abel demonstrated refinements in Spring Training that seemed ideal for taking him to the next level. While he had two poor outings to start the year, one was in relief, and the other was in near-freezing temperatures, dropping his velocity precipitously (up to 2 mph) across the board.

The main adjustment the Twins made was giving him a sweeper, something that I had speculated they’d do after acquiring them last July, given their history with Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. It offers him something great for RHB, and it’s been effective there: he’s dumped his shockingly average sinker entirely in exchange, which means he’s simply improved his lot in the strong-side matchup. Like Ryan, Abel kept his old slider when adding the sweeper, giving him an additional bipartisan option with its gyro shape. It’s located slightly better than last year, but that’s not saying much. It still struggles to find the right areas, with as many pitches in the upper third and over the plate as down and away to RHB.

The pitch that gets me most excited is the changeup. It gets 10 inches of run on 0 vert, and in Spring Training, he was able to kill even more horizontal during certain starts to get it in the 8-9 inch range. His feel for the pitch makes me wonder if he’s always playing in the cold (seriously, what is this plot?), but it returns average results all the same. I think back to Emmet Sheehan pre-2024, when he had a similarly poor grasp of his offspeed, yet managed to get great results with it. I thought that would indicate better times ahead, when he inevitably got more comfortable with it, and it did: a .167 xWOBA and .187 xWOBAcon with average swing and miss on 27% usage vs LHB. Abel could be monstrous with far worse results on the offering than that.

His 4-seamer and two-plane curve are self-explanatory. They’re good pitches that have performed well. He demonstrates the clearest intent with the two as well: heaters up, breakers down. One can be confident that he can approach the 40% whiff rate on the latter from last year again, which would make it dependable, while the current 45% whiff rate on the former will likely regress significantly with time.

Going forward, I could see them do another “Joe Ryan-ism”: a revamped sinker to add another tool for RHB. The changeup’s unique shape leaves the fastball’s right flank unusually open, and given the 4-seamer only gets 7 inches of run, that’s ripe for opportunity. Something that can get solid horizontal with great vertical would do very nicely - the aim would be to get the carry (VAA above average) to be around the 90th percentile, like the 4-seam.

It’s hard to judge how much to value those first two appearances in strange conditions, but I’m not sure we need to. Abel demonstrated a clear top 25 SP level against the Tigers and Red Sox, by the exact means one would expect (great results from the 4-seam, changeup, curve). I think a 3.50 ERA is certainly possible by the end of the year if his command can improve slightly, with the lower end being ~3.80 if his command continues to be more on the negative end. His secondaries have missed up too much to be totally content with his mix as it stands.

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Sources

​PitcherList

FanGraphs

Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard v8

BaseballSavant

BaseballReference

Welcome back to my annual Top 50 Players in MLB list! If you missed the first 25, feel free to check Part 1 here. As a reminder, I rate based on prorated performance with fWAR for hitters and a 50/50 split of rWAR and fWAR for pitchers. In each player’s header, their 2025 performance in both the prorated (designated “P”) and total (“T”) sections will be displayed next to “previous rank,” which indicates where I put the player in question last year. If a player’s rank does not qualify (DNQ), that means they didn’t meet 377 PA or 122 IP, the requirements to filter out seasons too short to be worth including on a prorated basis.

I hope you enjoy!

The full top 50. Ctrl + F to the ranking that irritates you the most. [Code based on TJStats’ prior work]

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26. Max Fried - 32 - New York Yankees - SP (Previous Rank: 35, P: 72, T: 43)

There was some curiosity about what the Yankees would do with Fried, and the answer is…a lot! The main adjustment was the use of a new cutter, which he wielded more than 30% of the time vs. RHB with great success. The shape is nothing special, yet his natural feel for the offering was clear with location that brought copious soft contact and whiffs.

To make room for the pitch, his 4-seamer, which historically got so much cut that it went as straight as an arrow, sacrificed 3 inches of horizontal movement for 4 inches of vertical. It’s used less than 14% of the time to righties, so it’s not such a significant piece of the puzzle, but the initial reports have been positive. The confounding variable is a simultaneous 2 mph increase in velocity, but I imagine it’s at worst a small positive for his mix’s harmony in general.

Otherwise, the Yankees took their classic route of increasing a sweeper’s usage and sweep. Fried added 3 inches of horizontal in exchange for 3 fewer inches of depth in this case, and it remained strong despite leaking it up far more to hitters. They also gave his sinker a ton of depth, which allowed it to perform at a career-best level.

Fried has such a good feel for his six offerings, with such unique shapes on all of them (I’d define ⅚ that way...all other than the changeup), that I understand why the Yankees entrusted him with a nine-year deal. There’s hope for a Wheeler-esque trajectory, where he continues to add to his mix as the times demand it. He may be close to the best he’s ever been with this new cutter, making his weak-side matchups so much simpler.

27. Logan Gilbert - 28 - Seattle Mariners - SP (Previous Rank: 31, P: 140, T: 194)

It’s hard to say that someone who just posted a 33% K rate and 27% K-BB% is underrated, but here we are. Gilbert has everything he needs to be an absolute stud: the velocity, the quality pitch shapes, the depth of mix, the command, the capacity for 6 innings per start. Gilbert has thrown 185 innings in three of his last four seasons, and his 2025 still paced for almost 170 despite injury. Before that injury in late April, he had an outstanding 32% K-BB% and 38% K rate across 5 starts despite a reasonably tough schedule (which included @ TOR, vs DET and HOU). That wouldn’t last through a whole year, yet it lends credence to his full-season marks being fairly representative.

Gilbert’s splitter is the key piece, harvesting misses on half of its induced swings on bi-partisan 20% usage. It leveled up its chase rate drastically through a significant change in shape: velocity down 3 mph, but an extra 1.5 inches of depth and an inch of cut. That makes it a Logan Webb-level outlier at -3 inches of vert and 4 inches of cut, and the results indicate as much. Its xWOBA conceded was under .150, and it gets strikes at an average rate with only a 23% zone rate.

Gilbert only has a solid 4-seam, predicated on 7.5 feet of extension. That’s near tops in the league, and the fastball itself moves well. 96 mph and fairly flat, it survives consistent 35% usage. His gyro slider that goes underneath is great, and he gets width from a sweeping curve that sits at a solid 82 mph. Everything manages whiffs without hard contact, which is the recipe for success. Perhaps he’ll push his splitter usage upward - it went up 9% last year - but he’s a great pitcher regardless of any improvements. The home park is just a bonus.

28. Jackson Merrill - 22 - San Diego Padres - OF (Previous Rank: 12, P: 74, T: 109)

Merrill has me conflicted. In retrospect, I don’t think my evaluation of his talent was particularly off-base; he truly looked like the outfield version of Bobby Witt with the unique blend of contact, launch, and speed. But a choice to chase power more proactively in 2025 (K rate up 5.5%, barrel rate up 2%) still requires justification, much in the same way Wyatt Langford was obligated to do so as he seemed to take a step backwards until the beginning of August. One could argue that September offered the rationale, with 7 home runs in 97 plate appearances and a .946 OPS. The process justified it, too: his groundball rate was down 9%, zone-contact up 5%, pull rate up 6%, flyball EV up 3. But I’m greedy - or skeptical - and want to see him hold some of those changes over a longer period of time. He still has a supernatural ability to square up the ball, and he’s a natural center fielder. I wouldn’t worry about the 1 stolen base. I’m sure the aggression on the bases will come back in time.

29. Logan Webb - 29 - San Francisco Giants - SP (Previous Rank: 47, P: 120, T: 64)

There was much trepidation about Webb last year after serious regression in changeup performance in 2024, but he managed to put any doubts to rest. In fact, he managed career-best results with the slowball, pushing his whiff rate over 30% with an xWOBA at an equally great .238. It’s clearly an outlier, but it shows the high-end of Webb’s range of performance: a dominant, voluminous ace.

The sinker/sweeper combo remains effective, although the sweeper did tend to be a little more awry than usual. The other interesting change in his mix was his cutter, added in ‘24 and pushed to 12% usage in ‘25. It has reverse movement, so it actually runs towards the arm-side, rather than garnering the typical glove-side cut, and while it wasn’t particularly effective, it didn’t seem too out of place either. I think it’ll reprise its spot in the mix at ~10% usage, which reduces the load weak-side sinkers and sweepers have to bear.

The massive increase in ranking is in part the new cutter, and in part a new appreciation for his mix, specifically with the changeup. I’ve found changeups with so little horizontal movement to be incredibly effective, and Webb is nearly unmatched in that respect. Pay no mind to those P or T ranks, by the way. Webb’s frequent excursions beyond the 6th inning inflate his ratios in a way that WAR can’t properly enjoy.

30. Cristopher Sanchez - 29 - Philadelphia Phillies - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 5, T: 4)

I may be one of the lowest on Sanchez this year, which is funny because I was amongst his greatest believers last year (he was the top SP left off the top 50). Although his sinker/slider/changeup combo is a resounding mix, I’m not sure it’s resilient enough to make him into a top-5 pitcher. There’s a lot of Logan Webb in his approach, with heavy sinker/changeup usage for groundballs on the former and groundballs/whiffs on the latter. To outperform the master in 2025, he needed heavy jumps in performance by both his sinker and change. Everything was up a mile an hour, his changeup got 2 inches of extra dip, and his sinker got 3. Now, that’s not unheard of for Sanchez, who got just as much depth in 2023, but that’s the nature of changeups. They come and go (see: Mr. Webb). There’s another warning sign: his sinker was far better than ever at mitigating hard contact (.309 xWOBA, after .377 in 2024 and .361 in 2023), despite more balls middle-middle and far fewer chases than ‘24. In tandem, I doubt his elite play will continue, but he should remain comfortably in the top 10.

31. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 27 - Toronto Blue Jays - 1B (Previous Rank: 39, P: 94, T: 59)

Many will push Guerrero higher than this based on postseason heroics, but even combining that sample with a general preference towards offensively-minded players (which inherently have less variance) doesn’t push him beyond my rough benchmark for a top 25 player. Guerrero is certainly a disciplined, high-contact slugger, but lacks the launch or pull to make full use of it. He again was well-below average in pulled flyballs, 18th percentile, which is the only thing that makes 23 home runs explicable for a 162-game bat with top-end exit velocities and above-average contact rates.

In part 1, Caminero was featured with a similar profile, so it’s important to highlight the differences. Guerrero has slightly better swing decisions, contact rates, and power, but Caminero’s pulled flyball rate and tougher position on the defensive spectrum make him significantly more valuable overall. People may point to consistency in the level of play, but that’s the exact problem. Guerrero has largely been almost the exact same player for four years in a row, and basically identical for the last three. A great 2025 was spurred on by extreme outlier performance against the soft stuff - not even 2021 Vlad was close to as effective, despite far better surface results.​

There has been one change, though. 2025 brought new passivity to Vladdy’s game, swinging at balls in and out of the zone 6% less. This pushed his walk rate by 2%, and he clearly remains capable of squaring up the balls that he swings at. It’s not enough to move him much on the list, but it’s a small step in the right direction. Recently-hired hitting coach David Popkins seems a little more analytically-inclined with his relentless pursuit of bat speed, so perhaps he can finally help Vlad tap into his 80-grade power properly.

32. Mookie Betts - 33 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SS (Previous Rank: 8, P: 117, T: 85)

How the mighty (may) have fallen. A perennial superstar, Betts returned to a mortal, fringe All-Star level in 2025. My hypothesis is that the sheer drop in performance was caused by losing 2 mph in bat speed, pushing his high-end exit velocities from passable to not-so-much. But then again, there was a bigger decline prior to 2024, and he remained a capable All-Star-level hitter then. Some speculate that the illness during 2025 Spring Training that made him lose 25 pounds in two weeks was the driving factor, and that bat speed loss was simply a symptom. But it’s too hard for me to say. Unfortunately, I have to put him somewhere, so the mid-30s seem reasonable enough.

Otherwise, Betts is totally untouched - he has held the elite contact and pull rates, and has managed even better swing decisions. If he can recover his bat speed, he’s back to his 5-6 fWAR self. Otherwise, this will probably be his last time on my top 50.

33. Geraldo Perdomo - 26 - Arizona Diamondbacks - SS (Previous Rank: UR, P: 10, T: 7)

If you had to list the top 5 hitters by fWAR, three were achievable. Judge, Witt, and Ohtani were often placed in the top 3 of rankings prior to the year. Raleigh would have been a reach, but if you believed in his ability to push his pulled flyball rate, sure. But Geraldo Perdomo? The toolsy Diamondback infielder? No chance. That makes the main query…can he sustain it?

The approach is a little precarious because of how patient he is. He had the 7th-lowest swing rate amongst qualified hitters in 2025; only Chase Meidroth is in his realm in terms of contact rate, making him a unicorn in that regard. The key is whether he can consistently get the ball in the right spots; his groundball rate was under 40% with a pull rate just above that mark, giving him quality batted balls despite dreadfully low EVs. Of course, bad power numbers also provide opportunity. He’s increased his bat speed by around 1.5 mph in each of the past two seasons, taking him from atrocious to…bad? Another leap of that size would get him in shouting distance of the middle of the bell curve, and slingshot him into seriously great offensive standing.

On defense, he’s consistently a plus, and on the bases, he’s an intelligent opportunist. He regularly pushes for extra bases with high success rates without game-breaking speed, making him a truly dynamic player.

It’s fair to question if Perdomo’s last season was legit, but I think several things would have to go awry to send him back to being a lineup filler. The offensive production has too strong a foundation to be whisked away in a temporarily stiff regressionary breeze.

34. Bryan Woo - 26 - Seattle Mariners - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 71, T: 50)

My love for Bryan Woo is well-documented, and that certainly contributes to his placing. But more specifically, I understand how he is so dominant. It’s all approach angles and location, and despite some allegations that he was too fastball-dominant to be productive, he has chugged along for 2.5 seasons undeterred by this point. Pushing his velocity up 1 to 2 ticks across the board this season certainly helped, but his CSW actually dropped by 2% in spite of that. Part of that can be attributed to deeper outings, but it doesn’t matter so long as he can continue to get a preposterous amount of rise on his pitches.

One under-discussed part of Woo’s game is the sweeper he introduced in 2024. It was already elite on debut, yet he’s revved it up to 85 mph from 83, and it’s gone into overdrive. A 46% whiff rate and 36% chase rate are ridiculous for a pitch that is never squared up to begin with, even when left in the zone. I suspect he may work it in even more next season, especially if his velocity gains don’t completely stick around. Unlike most pitchers who adopt a sweeper, he kept his slider, which allows him to retain a glut of ways to beat RHB.

One concern is that he still hasn’t addressed LHB adequately. The 4-seam was great against them last year, a reborn slider with 3 inches of extra vertical was well above-average, and the sinker has been fine when attacking their front hip. His changeup is passable at 10% usage, but it’s certainly not as far along as he would have liked. It still feels a touch feeble, but if he can remain one of the world’s best against RHB (3rd in K-BB%, 1st in xFIP), it can’t be that bad, can it?

35. Alejandro Kirk - 27 - Toronto Blue Jays - C (Previous Rank: UR, P: 15, T: 34)

One of the most fascinating players in the league, Kirk provides a number of crazy outlier skills that add up to a great player. His defense has always been great, but he’s continued to push his limits year after year to become a top 3 defender in the league by FRV for two years in a row now. If not for Patrick Bailey, he’d be the clear best defensive catcher and framer in the majors, and he’s an effective blocker as well, with 21 more than average last year.

Offensively is where things get really interesting. Kirk’s reputation has always been that of a high-contact player who manages to chase only at an average rate, allowing him to reap the rewards of so many balls in play without the lower quality of contact the extra chases bring. In ‘25, he opted to trade some of that contact for power, becoming far more aggressive in-zone. Kirk’s hard-hit rate jumped above 50%, his 90th percentile EV over 106 mph, well above average, and the barrel rate leaped over 10%. At his contact rates, under 20 HR/650 PA seems harsh, but he does struggle to pull the ball.

Overall, Kirk is a top catcher with a newfound edge to his game. Above-average power takes him from quality regular to easy All-Star, and there may be more room for power in the future if he can continue to push his groundball rate down (down 6% across the last 2 years) and sustain the EV increases. He has an outside chance for a top 25 ranking next year.

36. Elly de la Cruz - 24 - Cincinnati Reds - SS (Previous Rank: 13, P: 76, T: 48)

When I put de la Cruz 13th last year, there would have been no world where a 5.5% cut in strikeout rate with similar power would have led him to drop in the ranking. After all, he registered one of the hardest hit balls in MLB history at just 21 years old, and his sprint speed can push 30 feet per second. But every year I improve, and so I have to adjust him downward based on my better understanding. One red flag is consistent struggles against breakers; the whiff was substantially down this time around, but he still struggled to make any sort of impact against them. He saw far fewer heaters in 2025, and that’s a big reason why. There’s also the defense, which is consistently rated negatively by DRS (I put more stock in Savant’s FRV previously), and a continued struggle to hit LHP.

The last one is the real killer. A .256 xWOBA and .618 OPS in 210 PA against southpaws is a complete statline killer, including a poor 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. 2024 showed some promise with a slash line that crept towards average, but until he can truly demonstrate some level of fluency in the matchup, he will continue to be hampered in his production.

It’s hard to remain down on Elly de la Cruz. He’s a walking highlight reel with the power/speed combination that few can possibly possess, but the finer details to push his skillset to the maximum continue to evade him. He could certainly vault into the top 10 with the right steps forward.

37. Pete Crow-Armstrong - 24 - Chicago Cubs - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 33, T: 23)

Where do I put this one? The defense and baserunning are clearly elite, and while he was unstoppable in the first half with his elite pulled flyball rate and aggressive approach, he then ghosted the Cubs after the break with a .600 OPS. His chase rate has few peers amongst productive hitters, leaving himself vulnerable to pitches out of the zone (his swinging strike rate below the zone- not his whiff rate below the zone - is 25%), and scarce opportunities for him to use his wheels.

That being said, my ranking of him indicates that I am skeptical of how much people are doubting “Armstrong,” as John Smoltz incessantly called him. Whilst he was worse in the second half, it wasn’t cataclysmic, and the reasoning contradicts most discourse about him.

PCA was far worse in the second half, but it may not be for the reasons you think

Two big takeaways: one, his chase rate was far better in his weak second half than in the first. That’s not a typo; he really did drop his chase rate by 7%. While the chase rate may be an issue long-term, it certainly was not the driving factor for his steep fall-off. Second, his flyball exit velocity went down the tubes, despite far better swing decisions. Part of that is a corresponding decrease in in-zone aggression, but a 3.3 mph drop is a real problem any way you cut it. All that being said, though, this comparison does him a big injustice - his first half was exceptional, and one would expect regression regardless of approach.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not the next Javier Baez. Baez had only one season below a 30.6% whiff rate prior to 2024, the mark PCA had last year, and most of the time it hovered between 35 and 40. Additionally, saying Baez never got the ball at the right angles on the pull side at anywhere near the same rate would be an understatement. PCA’s approach is maxed out for power output, chases, and all. Although PCA may not reach 30/30 status again this year, I think a season of 20 HR and 30 SB is easily within reach, which is more than sufficient given his stellar defense.

38. Ben Rice - 27 - New York Yankees - 1B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 96, T: 109)

During a time where much of Yankee offensive prospect discourse had revolved around Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez, an underappreciated prospect drafted in the 12th round from Dartmouth was becoming the key homegrown piece to bolster the lineup behind Aaron Judge. Rice’s offensive profile is precisely the one that one would hope for a left-handed hitter at the Stadium: a bat with above-average contact rates that can elevate to the pull side with great authority. He improved all over the place in last year’s winter and spring, but a better eye for spin and 2 extra mph of bat speed seem like the biggest catalysts for his transformation from a capable platoon player in ‘24 to a clear middle-of-the-order option in ‘25. For reference, his jump in hard hit rate (+19.4%) would have surpassed Brice Turang for the largest between the two seasons if he qualified in ‘24, and his jump in average EV (+3.3 mph) would have been 4th.

Ben Rice demonstrated a far better ability to square up flyballs this season, helping push his power numbers in the right direction. The blue is 2025, orange is 2024 [FanGraphs Labs]

Some have questioned whether Rice can handle a full-time role, and despite the sample being small against southpaws (120 PA), I confidently believe he could. Despite his “pull-adjusted” xWOBA against LHP only clocking in at .333, he still managed quality power (92.3 mph average) and in-zone contact (85.9%) metrics. He was a little prone to chase, doing so over a quarter of the time, but it’s a nitpick in the grand scheme of things. Overall, I imagine Rice can consistently be a 110-120 wRC+ batsman vs LHP, which is more than enough.

While Rice may never be a major league level catcher (a 2.07 sec pop time is bad, even for an offensively-minded backup), he will hit more than enough to stick at first or DH. Now it’s about performing in the box score to the level that his Statcast metrics clearly demonstrate he is capable of.

39. William Contreras - 28 - Milwaukee Brewers - C (Previous Rank: 38, P: 108, T: 74)

The king of swing decisions amongst backstops, Contreras flashes elite power and discipline from a position that infrequently offers such skills. His max EV a year ago was over 118 mph, and his upper-end exit velocities are consistently elite. Simultaneously, his SEAGER has peaked in the 100th percentile, and is often around the 90th. Defensively, he’s above average, but nothing outstanding, and he swipes a few bags every year despite poor overall baserunning.

Part of the reason for his low ranking last year was skepticism at great offensive output with batted balls at such poor angles. Funnily enough, he improved in that area in 2025, hitting the ball on the ground 50% of the time rather than 55. Still, the quality of the contact wasn’t at the same level, with a far greater emphasis on contact, and the pull rate remains low. There’s real upside if his zone and chase contact rates can stay at his newly found career highs with his past level of power, but if it’s one or the other, we may have already seen the most Contreras can deliver. That’s a top level, at just over 5.5 wins per 650 PA, but the floor is the main calling card.

40. Byron Buxton - 32 - Minnesota Twins - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 18, T: 26)

Although I create my rankings based on prorated results, that’s primarily to handle natural injury variance. As a player who habitually misses significant time, missed games must be taken into account for Buxton. Once an elite center fielder, then a full-time DH in a failed attempt to keep him on the field, Buxton is once again the keystone to the Twin Cities’ defense. He may not be at the peak of his defensive abilities in his early 30’s, but he is still a clear plus in his role all the same. On the bases, he was as aggressive as ever, posting his highest stolen base attempt rate since 2019. If Buxton is still injury-prone, he sure doesn’t play like it.

Offensively, he remains a clear dual threat. I already covered the speed, but his uncompromising damage-oriented approach persists. He’s incredibly aggressive in and out of the zone, and he has the great capability to square up all pitch types, leaving few weaknesses to exploit. He pulls the ball with authority, usually only 30% on the ground (in 2025, it was a higher 37%), and he’s managed to keep the whiff somewhat in check by being more active early in the count. Last year, he had three home runs on the first pitch of the game alone. He tied for the 4th-most home runs on 0-0 counts with Ohtani (10), behind the somewhat obvious duo of Raleigh and Judge, and Jo Adell.

If Buxton was guaranteed 162 games, I’d place him in the top 15. But with ⅓ of the season almost certainly out of play, I have to be more conservative with my positioning of the Twins’ top remaining player.

41. Bryce Harper - 33 - Philadelphia Phillies - 1B (Previous Rank: 26, P: 82, T: 78)

Once a consistent top 10 batsman, Harper’s most outstanding skills have been degraded by age. A SEAGER that once set the standard for the whole league is now just great, and a chase rate that once regularly sat 25% at the best of times is now persistently over 33%. That extra aggression has done him few favors. His 90th percentile EV is down about a mile per hour, coinciding with a 1 mph drop in bat speed between 2023 and 2024, and he’s struggled to get balls at the right angles, too. Dave Dombrowski faced some scrutiny for stating the obvious, but I have no fear in repeating his sentiment. Bryce Harper is no longer the same player he was in the past, especially before 2022. He can, however, take solace in being the 41st-ranked player on my list.

42. Matt Olson - 31 - Atlanta Braves - 1B (Previous Rank: 48, P: 65, T: 34)

Olson offers a steady hand in a Braves lineup that desperately needs one; Albies has been mediocre in three of the past four years, Acuna has been no stranger to missing time, Riley has lost his way after several years at the level of a top-25 player, and what in the world is up with Michael Harris II? His consistency can be attributed to great contact rates for a slugger, especially out of the zone, where he’s even above average, and great power (consistently above 107 mph in 90th percentile EV, which is the 95th percentile) without overwhelming bat speed (typically around the 80th percentile). His zone control is also great, which makes his chases productive and many at bats into walks. Defensively, he has a well-earned reputation for being reliable at first.

His apex was in 2023, when he managed to play at a career-best rate in almost every area. He combined smart aggression (94th percentile SEAGER) with career-best recognition of spin to become unpitchable, and he was surrounded by Braves hitters at the peak of their own powers. All the same, what Olson offers is incredibly valuable: damage, discipline, and defense on an annual basis.

43. Cole Ragans - 28 - Kansas City Royals - SP (Previous Rank: 40, P: DNQ, T: 580)

Ragans’ abridged 2025 was brilliant. His strikeout rate was nearly 40%, his walk rate remained a solid 8%, and the quality of contact conceded was solid. There were real improvements too - his 4-seam was perpetually upstairs, and his gyro slider had extra depth to play off it extra well. If you think that he will have another 35+% K rate, it’ll be off that slider retaining that extra depth, which produced an extra 10% whiff rate against LHB. Funnily enough, Ragans runs reverse splits; he dominates RHB with his great changeup/curveball combo, but lacks truly overwhelming options against same-side hitters.

Based on this ranking, you might be able to guess that I doubt the slider can be effective enough to carry that weight. He was also still down 1 mph on fastballs and 2 mph on secondaries, a major damper on his long-term performance. As a super-natural supinator, perhaps a sinker would do the trick? He benched his superfluous cutter, so there’s space.

44. Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 28 - New York Yankees - 2B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 34, T: 43)

It may be a stretch for Chisholm to manage 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases, but 40/40 is well within reach. Acquired by the Yankees in 2024, Chisholm has embraced his new home to unlock new power whilst remaining incredibly disciplined. His much-improved pull and groundball rates matched his great 2022, a season unfortunately cut abruptly short in June by a back fracture. Despite losing a month’s worth of time in 2025 due to an oblique issue, he still managed 31 home runs. He paced for 38 home runs per 650 PA, while being a great baserunner and defender.

Let’s get specific. His 48.9% pull rate was the 7th-highest amongst qualified MLB hitters, tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong. That’s very impressive. His 40% groundball rate was 10% better than his career norms, and combined, he managed a 36th-best pulled flyball rate. With his strong EVs, that’s a lot of power potential. Combined with a career-best 10.9% walk rate, he was a true All-Star-level hitter.

Now, one could argue it was a unicorn season. Where’s Pete Alonso, after all? A lot of last year’s performances were outside of his career norms, yet Chisholm is only 28, and playing to one’s home park is a real thing. Juan Soto saw similar jumps, albeit on a smaller scale, when he donned the pinstripes. I find a repeat act likely.

45. Maikel Garcia - 26 - Kansas City Royals - 3B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 32, T: 19)

One of the biggest surprises of 2025, Maikel Garcia finally capitalized on the upside he had shown two years ago. He has always had great contact skills for his average bat speed, even pushing 90% in-zone contact in 2024, but he pounded the ball into the turf too often to make real use of it. A large jump in pull and air rates later, Maikel performed at a top 25 level in a full slate of games despite an uncharacteristically poor baserunning year. After being 37/39 in steal attempts in 2024, he was just 23/32 last season. Why the skepticism, then?

It’s all in the defense. Although his OAA at 3B had a reasonable improvement from 13 in 2023 to 18 in 2025 (with 4 in 2024 along the way), his DRS jumped from 2 in his first 1800 MLB innings at third base to 13 in 1100 in 2025. I try to lean towards DRS’s assessment for infielders, and while I’m sure Garcia improved defensively, such a large gain in one year is a little extreme. Defensive metrics are fickle, so one has to always be cautious.

All together, paired with some hedging on his various offensive improvements (he wouldn’t be the first to have a purple patch on pulled flyball rates for a year), I think this is a fair spot for him. It’s the type of hitter breakout that needs more than a year of sample to truly be able to evaluate what truly will stick entering the prime of his career.

46. Jackson Chourio - 22 - Milwaukee Brewers - OF (Previous Rank: 16, P: 125, T: 120)

I was high on Chourio entering 2025 after he demonstrated continuous improvement throughout 2024, but he seems to have lost his way in the intervening offseason. In April, he posted a walk rate below 2% across 118 PA, and in May, his quality of contact went down the tubes. He was better in June and July, before an injury that cost him most of August led to a slow September. Overall, he opted for a more defensive approach, but the extra contact didn’t bear any fruit, and his chase rate spiked by 5%. There are things to like: he improved his power number slightly (Max EV up 2 mph, 90th percentile EV up 1.5 mph), and his groundball rate moved much closer to average. All the same, Chourio lost a lot of the developments he made as ‘24 progressed in 2025, which leaves me uneasy banking on much more improvement in ‘26. It’s quite possible this ends up being too low, but the range of outcomes is far too wide for my liking.

47. Trea Turner - 32 - Philadelphia Phillies - SS (Previous Rank: UR, P: 7, T: 8)

I heavily debated whether Turner should be on the list at all. He put up his best season since he was on the Nationals, and it was in a manner that was more sustainable: more patience, more contact, more steals, less emphasis on power. However, he’s no longer a young upstart, turning 32 this season, and one must also acknowledge that lots needed to go right to accomplish that feat. His defense was almost worth more than the prior four seasons combined by FanGraphs, and one cannot anticipate any amount of power to hold at Turner’s age. In fact, his bat speed has already begun a downward trajectory: from 72.5 mph in 2023, to 71.6, and 71.2 most recently. That can help explain his stylistic shift, but if the bat speed drops any more, will he even be able to get a dozen out while calling hitter-friendly Citizens Bank home? He’s on the very brink of top 50 viability.

48. Hunter Brown - 27 - Houston Astros - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 20, T: 14)

I imagine many will put Brown significantly higher after a truly great year, but I find the divide between pitch quality and pitch results (specifically, the improvement they saw in 2025) staggering. The most notable is the improvement in his 12/6 curveball, which saw a 10% hike in whiff rate, 6% in chase, and the best quality of contact it’s ever conceded, despite no change in shape or location outside a modest .5 mph velocity bump. I do like his cutter’s shape shift into a cutter/slider hybrid at 4 inches of vert and -3.5 inches of cut, but he dropped its usage considerably in favor of more 4-seams and curves. Oh well.​

Otherwise, it’s lots of 4-seamers and sinkers with lots of run and average vert. The sinker outperforms what I would anticipate - two years of elite chase and whiff certainly means my assessment of “average” is off. Recently, I heard that some pitchers aim for their sinkers to have a similar amount of vertical and horizontal break. Brown’s 12 and 14.5 is close to that mark, which may explain part of it. Brown’s changeup is average at good pace.

Hunter is a solid starter with a deep mix that can stymie contact, but there’s nothing overwhelming here. I envision a repeat of 2024 in 2026, which is a borderline top-50 level season. If he wants to meet most people’s new expectations, I think he’d have to do something significant (i.e., reintegrate his cutter or improve his changeup’s shape) to add another dimension to his game.

49. Will Smith - 30 - Los Angeles Dodgers - C (Previous Rank: UR, P: 12, T: 51)

The hero of Game 7 himself. Last year, I reluctantly dropped him from the list after a slight drop in play led me to believe he was more of a top-60 player than a top-50 one. He responded by having the best year of his career, of course, so shame on me. ​

That “best season of his career” was on the back of a far more patient approach. He swung at the 5th-lowest rate in the league, just behind Juan Soto and just above Roman Anthony, but when he did swing, he put up well-above-average power numbers. His 90th percentile exit velocity was 1.5 mph higher than any prior year, and he managed to do it against all pitch types. He had never had a .350 xWOBA against breaking balls or changeups in a full season prior to ‘25, but managed to do it against both last season. In general, he’s survived off heaters.

Could he repeat the act? Sure, and his passive approach specifically is likely to stick around. But the career-best power and performance against spin appear way out of place given Smith’s now extensive track record. It’s rare for someone to push themselves into another gear at 29.

50. Jacob deGrom - 37 - Texas Rangers - SP (Previous Rank: 24, P: 129, T: 120)

Jake may be aging, but he’s adapting. Forever a dominant fastball/slider guy, injury and loss of velocity have forced him to broaden his horizons to more changeups and curves. Those additions have given him stability in weak-side matchups with nearly 30% usage, inverting his 2025 splits in the process. The curveball is distinctly impressive, avoiding hard contact whilst stealing called strikes at a mercurial 33% rate.

​Against RHB, it was old deGrom - 50% 4-seamers, 45% sliders - and although still effective, it doesn’t provide the same sense of inevitability. The slider, in particular, has gone from best in the biz to just great, and at the same time, the heater doesn’t elicit copious whiffs at the top of the zone anymore. That’s why he showed off a new weapon in Spring Training: a sinker. It wasn’t used much, but it looks at least average (Stockyard Baseball gives it ~102) with similar run to his change while remaining 9 inches above it at 97.

Whereas deGrom’s foundation remains sound for now, any further regression in either of his offerings for righties may spell the beginning of the end for deGrom’s status as a top arm without further realignment of his arsenal.

Conclusion

That’s all! A big thank you to everyone who’s supported the list so far. This year’s list shattered prior records for viewership, which makes me incredibly grateful. Happy Opening Day!

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Sources

TJStats for the basis of my ranking graphic code

BaseballReference

FanGraphs

BaseballSavant

Realestmuto Leaderboard

SwingGraphs

Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App

Stockyard Baseball Stuff+ Visualizer

Once a year, I stumble into a “Most Undervalued Starter in the League” post. Two years ago, that was Bryan Woo. Last year, it was Spencer Schwellenbach. This year, I could make a case for Schlittler or McLean, but that’s a little too easy, and the ship to do so has sailed. So I am choosing someone else, who I think could be as good as any of them within the year: Troy Melton. Currently sidelined with elbow inflammation, Melton has skills that are incredibly reminiscent of Spencer Schwellenbach. In fact, their arsenals are composed of the same 6 pitches (albeit at quite different rates). I’ll go over Melton now, shortly after he was drafted, and as appropriate, I’ll contrast him with Schwellenbach in their respective first seasons to show how great Melton really could be within a year.

Pitch Mix

The 4-seamer is better than the sum of its parts, with strong performance in every metric one grades a pitch on. It sits 97 on nearly 7 feet of extension, and slightly above-average cut paired with a great approach angle allows for top-of-the-line Z-Con and whiff rates. It’s harder than Schwellenbach’s, with a lower release, making its better vert “real,” and, like Schwellenbach, it struggles immensely to find the top of the zone. With proper placement, it can certainly be dominant.

​

Comparing pitch shapes of Melton and Schwellenbach in their first season. The first number is the velocity, followed by induced vertical break and horizontal break, rounded to the nearest .5. [Data from PitcherList]

Troy has two other fastball variations. The sinker appears to be well above-average, equally flat to the 4-seam, and yet manages 95.5 mph. Location has cost him results thus far, but when it avoids the middle of the zone, it will achieve better results. The cutter leans mediocre for me, and has been hammered in kind. He often gets it down and away to LHB, advertently or not, and it hasn’t worked. A focus on the inside corner can help correct that, but the shape simply isn’t very interesting beyond the heat behind it (91 mph), making its current usage of 18% against LHB feel optimistic. Spencer’s sinker is about the same, and his cutter is clearly better (the 4.5 extra inches of vert specifically make it a far more interesting shape).

A subtle sweeper is his primary secondary, and it can get good depth at 85 mph. He grasps it better than the two aforementioned fastball variants, and it shows potential to be a plus-pitch. One curiosity is whether he will push its horizontal movement further to a true sweeper shape, which could help his cutter distinguish itself more from the stereotypical shape in turn. Schwellenbach’s slider is more gyro-ish, offering more depth and velo. I prefer the Melton shape for tunneling purposes, but Schwellenbach’s will remain a whiff machine.

His rawest pitch is his splitter, which did nothing in its sub-50 pitch stint. It’s reminiscent of a kick-change, with good depth and below-average run on strong velocity. The quality of the shape is evident when using this system of comparison, though; that’s 3.5 extra mph with the same movement profile. The sole differentiator is command. Keep in mind that Schwellenbach’s splitter whiff and chase rates were in the 90th percentile. Anything close to that for Melton would be a revelation for his weak-side game and make him into a true ace almost immediately.

He rarely used his curve, but consistently demanded called strikes out of it when he did so. He zoned it nearly 60% of the time in its cameo, and with a legitimate six-pitch mix, it’s a great idea.

Tunneling is solid with all six pitches, and the shapes work well with his slight bias towards glove-side movement. His strike rates in the minors were strong outside of the same splitter, so one should trust that to get up to standard. Six pitches will let him pound the zone and abuse his strong stuff (all pitches grade above-average in Stuff+!) for strikeouts with limited downside.

Improvements

It’s oft-repeated, but people seem to forget it so much that perhaps it should be said more. Progression isn’t linear. Melton had an ERA over 5 at 23 years of age in Double-A, but became this level of pitcher in less than a year. Luckily, we can get a glimpse of how the Tigers molded him thanks to ProspectSavant and JerryMackinem, the latter of which presented his findings very cleanly below, including his college years!

​

A tabular representation of JerryMackinem’s great findings about Melton’s progression over time.

Melton’s improvement through this lens is shocking. In just seven months, he dropped his release height by over half a foot, and in the 3 years since he was drafted, he’s dropped it by over a foot. That shift makes the approach angle on his fastballs well above average, rather than well below. Of course, a gain of 3 mph in fastball velocity is always welcome, too.

But one can go even further and look at the difference in shapes. ProspectSavant presents data from his 26 ⅔ innings of Single-A ball in 2023, and there have been several adjustments.

Melton’s Single-A pitch plot from 2023 lacked anything consistently below the x-axis for vertical separation. [ProspectSavant]

​

First, he added a sinker and converted his changeup into a splitter. The splitter shape is far more interesting, which makes the conversion logical, and the sinker is a decent option for RHB. Its location was poor in his MLB stint, but as mentioned before, I think that’ll be rectified in due time.

He also has dropped his curveball a foot, giving it a big sweeping shape rather than some pseudo-sweeper at around a foot of horizontal. I think the new shape better reflects its inevitable role to steal strikes in the zone; a curveball-esque sweeper is unnecessary when he can just throw a sweeper!

Lastly, he changed his cutter shape from ~9/-6 to 4/-3.5, and added 3 inches of depth to his slider. The cutter adjustment gives his mix better spacing (it would have been directly on top of the slider otherwise), and the old cutter was all over the place. Despite the 4-seam and curve being nearly 2 feet apart, a good number of cutters could have been claimed to be either of them based on raw movement. The new shape has been unwieldy, but at least he is confident with it against MLB hitters.

Overall, the Tigers gave Melton a far more diverse vertical plot, while maintaining Melton’s already-robust horizontal separation. In tandem with the drop in release height mentioned before, the Tigers converted Melton into a truly modern starter that deserved the results he got in 2025. There’s flat approach angle fastballs; a deep mix of interesting pitches, and plenty of velocity to go around.

Conclusion

One should remember that if Melton really is like Schwellenbach, the results will take time to appear. In his first 7 starts, Spencer had an ERA over 5, but showed his potential with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 38:1. That brought his stats into elite territory in due time. Melton’s ratio across his 4 starts was a more reasonable 19:4, but that’s still an impressive 19% K-BB%.

The one thing I’d be curious about is the long-term viability of a sweeper. Obviously, he has enough to work on already - splitter command, cutter command, sinker command… I see a trend. But the pitch quality is there, and he’s only 2 months of MLB service time away from days of great strike rates across the arsenal in three different minor league levels. Command has a little more permanence than that. I would anticipate a top-50 SP season at worst (now that he’s injured, on a prorated basis), but with minor adjustments, he can already push into the top 30 and beyond in 2026.

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JerryMackinem (@OPSenheimer)

Welcome to my fourth annual Top 50 player list! As always, it’s split into two parts, and is based on prorated performance (i.e., injuries are not considered, except in the most extreme circumstances). While this may be controversial, a player’s “injury proneness” can flip on a dime, and unlike their actual results, I have no access, or the ability to interpret, their medical records. One change on my grading system: while I still grade position players on fWAR, pitchers will now be graded on an equal split of fWAR and rWAR. fWAR is best for position players, because it considers framing for catchers, and while I still hold that rWAR is better for pitchers in large samples, fWAR is too good in small samples with its FIP-based calculation to ignore.

Once again, each player will have their 2025 performance in both the prorated (designated “P”) and total (“T”) sections specified next to the “previous rank,” which indicates where I put the player in question last year. If a player’s rank does not qualify (DNQ), that means they didn’t meet 377 PA or 122 IP, the requirements to filter out seasons too short to be worth including on a prorated basis.

That said, I hope you enjoy.

My top 25 players of the year, in case you want to skip somewhere in particular. The rest of the graphic will be filled out in part 2. [Code based on TJStats’ prior work]

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1. Shohei Ohtani - 31 - Los Angeles Dodgers - DH/SP (Previous Rank: 1, 2025 Prorated Rank: 8, 2025 Total Rank: 3)

The best player in the world, once again. Hopefully, you aren’t particularly shocked. But what makes him better than the generational offensive force of Aaron Judge, or the all-around maestro Bobby Witt?t

​Just on offense, he’s clearly a top-5 player. His swing decisions (best quantified by SEAGER, a metric created by Robert Orr) are among the top 5% of hitters; he hits the ball harder than anyone except Aaron Judge or Oneil Cruz, and yet his contact rates are fairly reasonable. A new wrinkle was more in-zone patience, which meant just as much damage as before (a preposterous .554 xWOBA on contact, according to Savant) while also walking 15% of the time. A few years ago, perhaps you could have found an edge by prioritizing offspeed against him, but not anymore. He rakes against everything.

On the mound, he’s more of a question mark. His 2025 velocity was otherworldly, but he was also rehabbing in the majors, making most of his starts severely abbreviated. His command was as unrefined as ever - his sweeper and new slider often leaking up, 4-seamers often down, but that slider really offers a new dimension to beat same-handed hitters. It should be an above-average offering with good bite in flight, and in its 47 uses in 2025 against right-handed hitters (RHB), it returned elite results. His sweeper swapped out some horizontal run for velocity, a change that I think was as effective as the results demonstrated. More groundballs, whiffs, and soft contact, especially vs. left-handed hitters, are more than welcome. Over the past few years, he’s continued to ostracize his splitter more and more frequently. Once a lethal offering at 25% usage against lefties, it’s now at just 8%. He never had a great feel for the pitch, which makes the results even more impressive, but I find it hard to believe his new slider will get a larger share (12%) than his split. 15% usage against LHB, in line with 2023, may be possible.

I’d call Ohtani a back-end top-50 player as a pure pitcher, which places him right outside the top 10 arms. In combination, I think he’s the clear #1. Even if he regresses on one side of the ball, the other can more than compensate.

2. Aaron Judge - 33 - New York Yankees - OF (Previous Rank: 3, P: 1, T: 1)

It doesn’t require much statistical analysis to understand why Aaron Judge is ranked as the second-best player in baseball, so I’ll point out a few interesting tidbits instead.

First, Judge was graded as the batter with the best swing decisions by SEAGER for the second year in a row. This is reflected somewhat in his K rate, which has been under 25% in both of those years as well, but a little extra chase in 2025 made no impact. Even when Judge swings out of the zone, it’s still extremely productive.

Second, he gained a new superpower after 2022 (the year he hit 62 HRs, if you’ve forgotten) that flew under my radar until now. His groundball rate has beaten his career-best from before his new contract three years running, which helps explain how he has been able to sustain 25% barrel rates every year. It was “only” 24.7% in 2025, which still cleared 2nd place Ohtani by over a percent, and third place Schwarber by nearly 4. It’s the type of skill that lends credence to sustaining this level of play much more easily as he ages; while many things about Trout’s game have significantly regressed, his groundball rate has not been one of them.

Lastly, a cause for concern. His pull rate was at its lowest since 2021, and 2nd-lowest for his career. He’s never been a pulling aficionado, but being comfortably above average was the norm. If he continues to post middling pull rates, the gap between him and everyone else will be ever so slightly less prolific.

Defensively, he’s been sequestered to right field after several years consistently manning center, and he was a net positive there in 2025. There was some concern about his sprint speed with his ongoing toe issues, but with a sprint speed as high as it’s been in this decade, it doesn’t seem like a serious problem.

3. Paul Skenes - 23 - Pittsburgh Pirates - SP (Previous Rank: 9, P: 4, T: 6)

I’ve never ranked a starting pitcher this high, but Skenes’ first two seasons leave no doubt that he’s a top-5 player. I’m more optimistic with this placement at 3rd, mostly out of appreciation for his ability to quickly add new pitches to his already astounding arsenal. It’s a skill that he’s used early and often thus far in his career, despite dominating from his first pro start in the Pirates’ organization to now.

The one weakness in his arsenal, if you even call it that, is his 4-seam fastball. His natural ability to get arm-side movement, known as pronation, hurts his whiff potential here. 14.5 inches of run is more than some sinkers, and has just mediocre carry. Its great performance is from great velocity (98 mph) and tunneling - Maxwell Resnick’s study on the topic found his arsenal to be one of the most harmonious in 2024, along with names like Max Fried. Despite the warts on the pitch, he manages a 28.8% whiff rate (8% above the average 4-Seam) and a 75.8% zone contact rate (8% below the average). That makes it a top-end 4-seamer anyway.

His famous splinker (which was as good as ever, by the way) was supplemented by a self-annointed “true two-seam” in the offseason, with nearly 18 inches of run at 97 mph. The pitch may be his best against RHB, despite just 20% usage: a .253 xWOBA and 76.5% groundball rate are outstanding, and it even elicits chases and whiffs at well above-average rates. The command, of course, is also exceptional. I imagine it will carry far more of the same-handed load next season.

The sweeper was a late-season addition in 2024, and it established the 2nd-most used pitch for him against RHB this past season. It certainly was not one of the sweepers weakened by Eno’s Stuff+ re-train; the xWOBA was .194, the xWOBACON a laughable .243. The flyballs it generates are no issue - 80.5 mph EVs on average. His slider dropped in usage as a direct result, and he morphed it into a more cutter-esque shape. His curveball is similarly on the outs.

It’s hard to suggest what it would take Skenes to reach #1. Perhaps fewer 4-seamers, more sinkers and splitters to RHB and LHB respectively? It’s hard to imagine that he can get any better than he already is, but it’s already happened once.

4. Bobby Witt Jr. - 25 - Kansas City Royals - SS (Previous Rank: 2, P: 3, T: 4)

Witt’s placement may not be polarizing, but his defense certainly is. While FanGraphs continues to call him simply above average (3 DRS), Savant upgraded him to the marks of a generationally great shortstop (20 FRV) after previously only polling around 10. In years past, I’ve given him an evaluation between the two, and I think that continues to be sensible. Witt is clearly above average at his position, but I doubt he’s the best in his role or 5th in the league. As a prospect, he was never considered a future Platinum Glove level defender.

Offensively, he’s as good as one can expect. Exit velocities were as strong as last year, but a loss of a bit of contact and a lower rate of upper-end instances of contact meant a small amount of drain in his power. He was again below average against breakers, too frequently getting over the top of them. If he can figure that out permanently, as he briefly did in 2024, he has a legitimate case for the top spot.

On the bases, he was once again elite. A fluky 2024 saw too few opportunities and too many failed attempts for his capabilities, so 38/47 is a step in the right direction. Witt is as solid as they come, so come hell or high water, I would expect him in the top 5 next year.

5. Tarik Skubal - 29 - Detroit Tigers - SP (Previous Rank: 10, P: 17, T: 9)

While Skenes’ constant improvement is oft discussed, Skubal’s has been largely ignored. Skubal pushed his velocity an extra mile an hour last year, a feat that he has now achieved four years in a row, and so a 4-seamer that was once called below average by the typical analyst now sits 97.5 mph with elite metrics all over the place. Its shape has also been improved: it now gets a great amount of cut; just 4 inches of run, after years of 7+, and while improvements didn’t show themselves immediately in the results, it will certainly make it more resilient to any future decline in velocity or command. Additionally, he’s trended towards deploying it less and less, making it more effective when it does appear high in the zone.

His changeup is a major beneficiary of this adjustment as the fastball’s main accomplice, especially against right-handed hitters. It should be no surprise, then, that it returned a 45+% whiff rate and 25+% swinging strike rate on <.200 xWOBA for the third time in four years, and surpassed a 50% chase rate against RHB for the first time.

I have Skubal under Skenes because I think there’s a little more fragility in the approach. Against LHB, he relies on a sinker/slider combo that was not as resilient in 2025 as in prior years. The sinker was simply good, and the slider is frequently left too high for chases, which requires the 4-seam and changeup to take 40% weak-side usage. Skenes is nothing of the sort, unless you penalize him for his hefty 4-seam usage.

6. Juan Soto - 31 - New York Mets - OF (Previous Rank: 5, P: 38, T: 16)

Juan is as consistent as they come. He’s always an offensive force, but his defensive deficiencies force him to almost be considered a DH for ranking purposes. The one major alteration to his game in 2025 was in his baserunning - he put up ⅔ of his career stolen base total (57) prior to 2025 in 2025 (38) with great efficiency (90.5%). I don’t have any intricate metric to explain whether it is a pattern likely to continue, but I will say that I am highly skeptical it’ll continue to this extent. Perhaps 15 to 20 are possible, but the combination of efficiency and volume is just too good to be true. Here’s an example: in 2023, Freddie Freeman stole 23 bases, after stealing just 66 in his prior 1700 games. In the two seasons since, he’s combined for just 15. With how brilliant his batting is, he should put up around 6 fWAR/650 PA indefinitely.

7. Jose Ramirez - 33 - Cleveland Guardians - 3B (Previous Rank: 6, P: 13, T: 11)

There’s a lot to like with the top third baseman in the league. He’s fresh off another 6 fWAR season, his 5th in 6 years if you give him credit for his near 8-win pace in the abridged 2020, and 7th of the last 9. He’s still as sharp as ever, too: he pulled the ball a career-high 51.6% of the time, hit the ball on the turf only ⅓ of the time, and continues to make contact at prodigious rates. His defense remains solid, grading out as average by DRS and in the top 10% of the league by FRV, and on the bases, he remains a top-tier threat. In fact, he just set his career-best in baserunning value by FanGraphs, at 7.3 runs. I guess he’s really 32 years young.

These Ramirez blurbs feel like a formality at this point. “He was impressive again, in the same exact manner he always is. He puts up 6 wins in his sleep.” Booooring. Time for some controversy, then.

8. Kyle Tucker - 29 - Los Angeles Dodgers - OF (Previous Rank: 8, P: 43, T: 41)

Some may have been disappointed by Tucker’s last season before entering the open market, and then enraged by the Dodgers’ contract that he subsequently earned, but there’s some important context to his season, centered around his multi-month slump that included just 1 home run in 23 July games. It was reported in August that he had suffered a hairline fracture on a steal attempt on June 1st, and his level of play clearly declined thereafter. Prior to the injury, he was near 2024 levels; in 260 plate appearances, he posted a .376 xWOBA, 15% walk rate, 12% strikeout rate, and continued to elevate the ball at an elite level (32% groundball rate).

He was great before June 1st. He suffered a calf strain on September 2nd that cost him almost all of September.

That means of the 110 games he missed in the past two years, just 24 were not caused by a foul ball off the shin or a weird slide. Additionally, he played hurt for 2 months, which was his worst period of the past two years by a large margin. In small samples, we can be most confident in walk and strikeout rate, especially given that it’s been a large part of Tucker’s recent gains. Clearly, that’s not in any jeopardy.

So, did he deserve his contract? Yes. I think the discourse around Tucker was truly bizarre - everything about his game was put into the worst possible light, and he almost never got the benefit of the doubt with his injuries. He offers a similar skillset to Jose Ramirez, with great pulled flyball rates, diligent swing decisions, and ever-present contributions on the bases and in the field. I’d argue his worst season in the last five years was 2023, when he had 4.9 fWAR in 674 PA, and yet many people were saying he deserved less in free agency than Devers got three years ago with a year of arbitration left. Tucker just needs to stick to his prior course and avoid any icebergs that may come into view.

9. Garrett Crochet - 26 - Boston Red Sox - SP (Previous Rank: 19, P: 30, T: 11)

One could definitely argue that Crochet should be higher. He managed a 31% strikeout rate across a league-leading 205 innings with elite ERA predictors across the board. However, there are some things to be aware of.

First, he lost a good amount of extension (around 3 inches) and velocity (1 mph on his fastball and cutter, 3 mph on his changeup). This can be attributed to the higher workload, but it can be felt in the results. The fastball got knocked around more frequently, and the cutter lacked the same in-zone deception. Second, he was just flat-out luckier. His left on base rate jumped to an unsustainable 84%, and his BABIP was his lowest since his 6-inning stint in 2020.

There are also some positives, though. His 4-seam location was impeccable, landing at the top of the zone 8% more than last season, and his sweeper shape is more interesting with extra depth. He’s also found a way to work his sinker and sweeper into the arsenal very effectively, when previously it was a Graham Ashcraft-esque 4-seam and cutter tandem. Crochet is clearly a well-positioned starter after 1 year under the Red Sox’s tutelage, and there’s even room to grow with his changeup. In fact, he worked on a new changeup grip with a member of Vanderbilt’s staff, this one closer to a splitter, which would be a massive addition to a mix that’s currently only fastballs and a sweeper. It would rectify his one real remaining issue - beating RHB without its cutter or a left-on-right sweeper at top form.

10. Cal Raleigh - 29 - Seattle Mariners - C (Previous Rank: 35, P: 2, T: 2)

For a season that was so extraordinary compared to Raleigh’s past season, he didn’t actually change much. He made slightly better swing decisions and was pitched slightly more carefully, but his home run outburst was on the back of two numbers: a 25% groundball rate, 4% better than his previous best, and a 54.5% pull rate, 3.5% in the clear. That combines for an astronomical 38.4% pulled flyball rate, a feat that only Isaac Paredes, known for comically low EVs given his power output, possesses. With his very good EVs, Raleigh was always going to push the home run record with such optimized pulled flyball rates.

Of course, that leads one to wonder. Is a 38.4% pulled flyball rate sustainable? The answer, as Goodhart would surmise, is no. Paredes beat him out this year with a rate of 38.5%, but since the year 2020, only 2023 Isaac Paredes, 2023 Adam Duvall (with a limited sample), and 2021 Mike Zunino (in an equally limited sample) surpassed even 35%. Duvall was the high watermark of the group, at 36%. Such great groundball rates are also rare; Raleigh’s 25.8% is only matched by 2022 Mike Trout and 2021 Adam Duvall amongst qualified hitters since 2021. His 52% pull rate is more frequently matched, but still seems out of line with his career norms.

Therefore, Raleigh will almost certainly see significant regression in groundball rate and pull rate. It’s a surprisingly similar situation to 2024 Kyle Tucker, who also had shockingly low groundball rates, and who, in turn, regressed towards 30% in the year that followed. I would expect a 50% pull rate and 30% groundball rate next year for Raleigh, which would be a 32% pulled flyball rate. That’s still at least 40 home runs, which would be a great total, albeit not a prodigious one.

11. Francisco Lindor - 31 - New York Mets - SS (Previous Rank: 14, P: 29, T: 11)

There have been some complications with evaluating Lindor historically, who consistently got glowing reviews from BaseballSavant’s FRV for his defense, while FanGraphs’ DRS offered him little more than the bare minimum for someone with his great reputation. That changed in 2025, though, with FRV offering an assessment of 5 runs above average, with DRS at just -1. At 32, Lindor may be beyond his best defensive days, but there’s still plenty to like.

His baserunning remains excellent, once again swiping 30 bases with efficiency. Lindor’s sprint speed declined once again in 2025, to just below average, but that doesn’t seem to deter his baserunning at all. If Soto can swipe 30 with his speed, why can’t Lindor?

Offensively, his power reverted to his pre-2024 levels. That keeps it above average, but the 90th percentile EV is only better than around half the league, rather than two-thirds. He also lost his improvement in groundball rate, but that’s come and gone over time, as with many players. Lindor looks set for another 6-win season, but it feels like the time where he’s a top shortstop in the league may be coming to a close, especially defensively.

12. Corbin Carroll - 25 - Arizona Diamondbacks - OF (Previous Rank: 22, P: 9, T: 9)

Carroll has made a concerted effort to be more aggressive than ever, trending back to the second half of 2024 (and which I specifically noted in the 2025 ranking!), and it led to career-best results in 2025. He swung 7% more last season, evenly reflected across pitches in and out of the zone, and the rising tide lifted all boats. His barrel rate doubled to a great 14.5%, his 90th percentile EV increased 1.5 mph, his average EV rose 3 mph, and his xWOBA overall and on contact placed in the top decile. He contributed more against breaking balls than at any other point in his career, while dispatching heaters at career-best rates. Most surprisingly, his groundball rate dropped 10%, while his pull rate rose 5%, a gigantic change for someone who is also tapping into his power more than ever. Unlike his teammate Ketel Marte last year, I would have expected those power spikes to stick around if not for his hamate injury. They are notorious for draining the power of a hitter when first recovering from it, sometimes for months, so while I don’t consider missed time from injuries in the ranking, I do have to consider a drop in form from the effects of one. Otherwise, he would be ranked 9th.

Carroll also provides immense value in every other aspect of the game. He remains a blistering fast runner at nearly 30 feet per second, and he’s an elite corner outfielder that would regularly be in center on most clubs. His baserunning value has eclipsed 10 runs in each of the past three seasons, according to FanGraphs. No one else can claim such a feat once. A 40/40 season is not far off in peak condition - exclusively batting leadoff would probably be sufficient with a little bit of home run luck.

13. Julio Rodriguez - 25 - Seattle Mariners - OF (Previous Rank: 18, P: 40, T: 17)

It feels weird to call this the best that we may ever get from Julio, but with 3 years of at least 5.7 fWAR before turning 25, the level is already immense. Always a positive on the bases and elite in the field, Rodriguez’s big flaw has been struggling to get in gear before the weather turns warm. The closest the pre- and post-All-Star Break OPS values have been in his career was his rookie year, 2022, at .123. That gap is so immense that it almost precludes him entirely from top-10 consideration until he can bridge it; in the 2nd half of 2025, he put up a whole win more than in the 1st, despite 30 fewer games. In the fWAR ranking, he jumped from 37th to 7th between those two timeframes. It’s the sort of thing I imagine will be worked out at one random moment, but it’s impossible to say when that may be.

The one major difference in Julio’s play this year compared to his previous was his strikeout rate. Consistently around 25%, this year it dropped to 21 with no serious concessions. It seems to be spurred on by added aggression against the first pitch, but it could just as easily be noise. He remains a top-of-the-line baserunner and defender in center.

I expect Julio to continue to play well for the next decade, although I doubt he will ever reach the level (serious MVP contender) that his prospect status may have implied.

14. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 27 - San Diego Padres - OF (Previous Rank: 20, P: 24, T: 14)

Tatis may be one of the poster boys of “untapped potential” in MLB before long, never quite reaching the great peaks of his 2020 and 2021 seasons again. He’s never found the ability to get the ball at quite the right angles since ‘21, and he hasn’t been above average in pulled flyballs since then either. His power numbers have been more in line of late, but without those two traits, it won’t take him nearly as far in the home run count. One positive is his temperament at the plate, which was more reined in throughout 2025, and SEAGER approved. He jumped from the 90th percentile to the 98th, generating more walks and fewer Ks as a result.

Tatis is capable of squaring balls up on the ground and on low line drives, but once he gets it well into the air, the power declines. The grey is the league average, the size of each circle is the sample for that interval, and further to the right is better. [FanGraphs Labs]

His baserunning remains great, judged as 5 runs of value according to BaseballSavant, and his outfield play was again well-regarded statistically after a particularly harsh grading in 2024. It’s possible 25 home runs and a 130 wRC+ with great defense and baserunning is all we can expect from Tatis going forward, which, while outstanding, feels a little bit of a waste of his prodigious talent.

15. Corey Seager - 31 - Texas Rangers - SS (Previous Rank: 17, P: 21, T: 55)

Corey Seager has largely remained the same player for the past six years now, beginning with his great 2020. He has complete mastery of the strike zone and consistently hits the ball hard at good launch angles. Nevertheless, people like to swing back and forth like a pendulum about him - many placed him top 5 after 2023, while I’ve seen some put him as low as 25th now.

The only area to be skeptical about is his contact rates, which had a precipitous drop to levels last seen in 2021. That generated his worst strikeout rate since 2017, but it still remained under 20%. Seager also returns productive against all pitch types; atypically for a slugger, the most home runs for him last year came off sliders, despite seeing 4-seams 10% more often. Seager’s approach is rock solid, so as long as he can remain disciplined in the zone, I’m riding the ups and downs that individual seasons may offer. His defense has even improved of late, with 3 straight seasons of at least 4 DRS, including an outlier 16 last year. FRV is more skeptical, pegging him just above average. There’s a lot to like with the vet.

16. Ketel Marte - 32 - Arizona Diamondbacks - 2B (Previous Rank: 42, P: 36, T: 37)

I know you see that “Previous Rank” value. How is that possible, and what changed?

Last year, Marte succeeded by becoming an elite power-hitting threat. His hard-hit rate jumped 11%, his average overall and flyball EV were both up 3 mph from his prior career high - and he posted an ISO higher than his 2019 mark, a notoriously juiced offensive year. While that isn’t totally unprecedented, it came with no concessions. His strikeout and walk rates held firm, which, combined with the tremendous power surge, would be virtually unprecedented for a 30-year-old. I opted to forecast another 2023-type season for 2025 in the top 40 or so, and left it at that.

This past year, he did just that. However, in complete contrast to 2024, his final stats may undersell him despite a return to normal power production. He pulled balls in the air at career-best rates, and massively improved his swing decisions (from the 70th percentile to the 88th). Consequently, his xWOBA nearly eclipsed last year’s despite a far less flashy approach. A focus on plate discipline, along with a new career-best Max EV by 2.5 mph, gives me a lot of faith that he can sustain this level for at least another season. In fact, he may be able to tap into more power than I think with his continually increasing bat speed, now in the 85th percentile. A 6-win season isn’t out of reach, and 4 should be the floor.

17. Gunnar Henderson - 24 - Baltimore Orioles - SS (Previous Rank: 4, P: 49, T: 32)

After a step forward in 2024, an uneven 2025 lost him almost all of his gains in power and contact. A mercurial .417 xWOBA against breaking stuff dropped to a 2022-2023-esque .303, and he couldn’t continue to lay off pitches out of the zone at an above-average rate. Perhaps most glaring was his xWOBA on contact, which slipped under .400, 20 points worse than any other of his campaigns. There’s a myriad of reasons for it; by some estimations, it was his worst pulled flyball rate in a year, by all estimations, it was his worst in terms of 90th percentile exit velocity. He continues to struggle to elevate the ball, or to pull it. Defensively, he had the harshest grading (-3 DRS) that he’s ever had, but it’s nothing damning for his long-term viability at the position.

That all being said, I think Henderson is still a great player to buy. After all the regression I just stated, he still managed a near top-25 fWAR total, and one has to expect a bounce-back in at least some areas. I think his defense will improve in particular, and the EVs should rebound back towards more typical territory. I think a 5.5 fWAR season, which this ranking roughly projects, would be a strong performance.

18. Yordan Alvarez - 31 - Houston Astros - DH (Previous Rank: 11, P: DNQ, T: 481)

A lot of the adjustment here is how I changed my perspective on consistency, rather than anything Yordan did in 2025. Of course, he played less than a third of the year, so there wasn’t much sample size to evaluate in the first place.

In the past, I gave Yordan credit for his remarkably consistent 150+ wRC+ performances, despite his fWAR usually being quite a bit lower than his top 10 placings would suggest. I’ve reduced that effect dramatically in my mental math, so he’s a fringe top-20 player now instead. Alvarez had a very poor 2025, but that can be attributed largely to poor fortune. His power numbers were still great, and his swing decisions remained steadfast at the top of the table. He was quite a bit worse against heaters than in the rest of his career, but it was still a stellar .391 xwOBA. I’d expect a typical level of offensive output next year out of Yordan.

19. Junior Caminero - 22 - Tampa Bay Rays - 3B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 55, T: 37)

Caminero was the most shocking player I looked into for this list. It’s easy to throw around the term “rising superstar,” but Caminero fits the mold better than almost anyone. Here’s why.

Caminero was known for two things: top-tier bat speed and contact rates that were far too good for such power numbers. In the first half, his bat speed was an outstanding 78.2 mph, 3rd overall. In the second half, it was 78.9. While that doesn’t sound like much, he is already such an outlier that any gains are extraordinary. But there’s a second layer to it, too: the corresponding swing and miss. In the first half, his K rate was 20.3%, with a 35.5% Z-O Swing%. In the second half, his K rate was just 17.5%, and his Z-O Swing% was 38.4%. He got significantly more disciplined (already a strong suit, of course), while also pushing his bat speed almost a full tick higher.

Now, one thing that I kind of accepted with Caminero was that he was never going to consistently put the ball in the air or on the pull side, or at least, it’d take a while to get to a passable place. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with that - Vlad Guerrero has hit plenty of homers without such skills, and Soto only flashed it with the Yankees. But this year, he managed to push his GB% down 2% and his pull rate up 12%, catapulting him from a 16th percentile pulled flyball rate to the 66th. It’s clear that when it comes to Caminero, I have to suspend all disbelief. When it comes to potential offensive improvements, Junior is voracious.

Lastly, people like to mention the large gap in his home/road splits. My process makes that largely irrelevant, but let’s look into it. On the road after July 1st, he had an .819 OPS, compared to .872 when also considering home games. After the All-Star Break (mid-July), he had an .896 OPS on the road, compared to a .926 overall. I use those dates because I’m primarily concerned with his performance after those great adjustments. While he clearly hit better at home, it’s not remotely large enough to justify meaningful action. Guys usually hit slightly better at home anyway.

20. Yoshi Yamamoto - 27 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SP (Previous Rank: 33, P: 41, T: 28)

I’m actually a fan of Yamamoto. In fact, I was highest on Yamamoto last year out of the 15 lists I tracked. I think people are going to put a lot of stock into his playoff performance, and while relevant, I don’t think Yamamoto is significantly different from the second half of 2024. You can cut it different ways, but there’s no question he was already an elite pitcher for nearly two months prior to the injury in June, which cost him 3 months. His location has certainly improved in the interim, but does that justify the precipitous drop in quality of contact conceded across his whole arsenal?

Part of it is that I don’t fully understand Yamamoto. His splitter is well-placed at a hot 91 mph, but the shape isn’t anything unforeseen. Is a 76% groundball rate, .299 xWOBACON, and 80th percentile chase and whiff rates justified? That’s a great splitter by results, but the shape feels more good than great or exceptional. Stuff+, for what it’s worth, agrees - various models regard it as anywhere between average and one standard deviation above the mean.

There’s also the curve, which is a called strike machine with its 20 inches of drop. Except it got way fewer called strikes in ‘25 than ‘24, even when factoring in the lower zone rate. Instead, it got slightly more whiff, and slashed its xWOBACON drastically from an unsustainably high .450 two years ago to a great .300. Again, the placement is better, but are all of these improvements gonna stick around? It feels like an awful lot of improvement from slight changes in command. I always think back to Sandy Alcantara entering 2023 in situations like these. Buyer beware.

21. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 28 - Atlanta Braves - OF (Previous Rank: 15, P: 30, T: 76)

This is perhaps lower than others will have him, but I think that’s predominantly because I view his 2023 more and more as a serious outlier, rather than any indication of his future performance. If anything, he’s been worse than his pre-2023 average since that magical season, and his defensive effort has gone the concurrently gone in the wrong direction. His in-zone contact rate, in particular, has gone from average to well below, and that aforementioned defense was a shocking -8 FRV for a 28-year old once classified as an athletic freak. His sprint speed has gone down in tandem; ever since his ACL injury in 2021, it’s declined from the 97th percentile to hovering around the 60th, and while it hadn’t affected his baserunning previously, it did in 2025 - just 9 swipes in 412 PA, after 16 in 222 the year prior, and a magical 73 in 2023. One has to consider whether Acuna will lean into self-preservation as his historically team-friendly 10-year contract comes to a close, much like Bryce Harper did prior to his free agency after 2018.

That being said, Acuna is still a quality slugger. His swing decisions are still generationally good, and he has top-tier quality of contact, especially against 4-seamers. His groundball rate was also at its lowest since that ACL injury, at 46.6%. Acuna has far too many question marks to be trusted for a great year, but his bat should contribute at least 4 wins by itself.

22. Wyatt Langford - 24 - Texas Rangers - OF (Previous Rank: 25, P: 52, T: 51)

Langford was an aggressive pick from last year that actually worked out fairly well. His 4.7 fWAR/650 PA pace was slightly below the 5 fWAR pace I visualize at rank 25, but that counts an uncharacteristic first half with lots of pressing and swing-and-miss. His 100 PA rolling strikeout rate was regularly over 30% after only 20% in 2024, and while it came with more damage (2.5 mph increase in flyball EV), such large concessions made it an unbeneficial exchange. A strikeout rate around 25% is more fitting, and he maintains a strong walk rate as well.

Outside of that blemish, Langford maintains an elite hitting approach. His swing decisions remain above the 90th percentile, he improved his groundball rate to 35%, and his pulled flyball rate remains strong. On the bases, he remains a serious threat, and he’s an elite defensive left fielder who can spec into center. A more modest K rate catapulted him into .400 xWOBA territory after August 1st, much like the surge in September 2024 that similarly saved his season. If he can keep even half of those gains, he will easily be a top-15 player in 2026.

23. Nick Kurtz - 23 - Sacramento Athletics - 1B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 11, T: 37)

Kurtz was probably the hardest player to rank. The positives are clear - the power, the swing decisions, the ability to elevate the ball. He destroys fastballs, but remains effective against secondaries. But one can’t ignore the severe whiff rates against those same secondaries, or that he benefits greatly from the minor league dimensions in Sacramento.

I find Kurtz very similar to an early-career Aaron Judge (specifically from 2018-2021); they both possessed great swing decisions, big whiff risk, and great power. The key distinction between the two was in the field. Judge was routinely high quality in right, whereas Kurtz was nothing special at first across 100 games. Judge, of course, also possessed far more power at the time, but it came at the cost of an astronomical amount of whiff. He would regularly post 50+% whiff rates against breaking balls and offspeed across full seasons, and when he slashed it down to Kurtz-esque levels in 2022 (40-45%), he became generationally great. To fulfill that prophecy of the next generationally great power hitter, Kurtz will need to slash his whiff more (because he doesn’t carry that 80-grade power tool) and square up breakers more than he has. An average EV around 92 mph against them isn’t going to do with that much swing-and-miss.

24. Roman Anthony - 21 - Boston Red Sox - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: DNQ, T: 140)

I desperately wanted to place Roman Anthony higher, but his exact outlook is confusing. His August, the last full month before he was hurt in early September, was clearly Roman at his best: 6 home runs on a .304/.390/.520 slashline. However, it came with 38 strikeouts, a rate above 32%. In the month prior, he was also great: .329/.452/.494 with a strikeout rate below 25%, but only 1 home run. I’d love to combine these two statlines in my mind, which would come out to 20 HR, 184 strikeouts, and 88 walks per 650 PA with a .316/.419/.508 triple slash. Unfortunately, that’s not too practical.

Or is it? One would expect him to adjust his process significantly between those two months. I definitely did. But on closer inspection, he made virtually no adjustments at all! In fact, he ran a higher whiff rate in his low strikeout July than August, and had just as much power. I think the K rate in the long run is a touch high - 30% seems like about as high as he’ll go - but otherwise, that’s a dream sophomore season for Anthony.

Two very distinct outlooks in Anthony’s two full months in MLB

Funnily enough, his EVs and whiff were higher when he hit 1 HR than when he hit 6. Part of that is worse HR/FB luck, but it also reflects the instability of month-to-month data. Much like Caminero, if he can start to abuse that elite flyball EV more frequently, the sky is the limit.

25. Zack Wheeler - 35 - Philadelphia Phillies - SP (Previous Rank: 23, P: 16, T: 26)

Wheeler was going as strong as ever before his thoracic outlet surgery was announced, setting career-highs in K%, K-BB%, CSW%, xERA, and xFIP. How is that possible at 35? Well, an imperious amount of improvement in his sweeper and curveball were the focal points.

The sweeper has changed its shape over the three years he’s used it, and while the 2025 version was quite similar to its original 2023 form, his increasingly aggressive deployment of it has created more opportunities for strikes, without suffering any extra damage. I’m not sure how sustainable that is - a .189 xWOBA and 34.5% whiff rate vs LHB certainly isn’t - but he clearly continues to grasp the pitch better and better as time goes on.

The curveball is the really interesting one. He pushed its sweep by 2 inches, and the returns on whiff rates have been gigantic. On 16% usage against LHB, its whiff rate was 58% while pulling the string at an average clip and eliciting the quality of contact of a pop-up (.080 xWOBA). One factor is a Snell-esque commitment to the bottom of the zone, 91.4%, higher than any other curveball, and only beaten by Roupp’s changeup amongst pitches with at least as big a sample. A 35% chase rate with such a dogmatic gameplan is truly incredible.

One thing to watch is the continued decline of his sinker. Its chase rate has steadily dropped from 53% to 38% against right-handed batters, predicated on a similar decline in arm-side location. In that time, he’s also reduced the carry and amped up the horizontal break, perhaps making it harder for him to command, but the results haven’t significantly wavered. When the sinker starts to decline in on-field results, it may indicate the beginning of the end. Hopefully, his surgery doesn’t expedite it.

Conclusion

That’s it for part 1. There will be an article or two released while I continue to work on part 2. I hope to get it out before Opening Day, but no promises! Gotta make sure it’s done right.

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Sources

TJStats for the basis of my ranking graphic code

BaseballReference

FanGraphs

BaseballSavant

Realestmuto Leaderboard

SwingGraphs

Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App

TJStuff and PitchProfiler Stuff+

The product of several months of work, I am proud to present the first complete mock expansion draft since 2020. I got the inspiration from a Bill Simmons podcast of a mock NBA expansion draft about a year ago, and it’s been a slow process since. With rumors swirling about 2 new expansion teams being announced in the next few years, it seems like as good a time as any. The rules are as follows, adapted from the 1997 expansion draft for the Diamondbacks and Rays:

• Each team picks 35 players (70 players total). The first 28 picks are in “Round 1”, the next 28 are in “Round 2,” and the last 14 are in “Round 3”.

• A team can either have the first pick in Round 1, or the first pick in Rounds 2 and 3 and back-to-back picks in the first round at #2 and #3. Otherwise, the teams alternate picks.

• Each team can protect 15 players for Round 1, and 3 additional players can be protected before each subsequent round. In total, there will be 21 players protected for each team.

• Only one player can be picked from a given organization by each team in a round. Since there are two teams drafting, two players from each organization can be selected per round.

• All players with any sort of no-trade protection must be protected. I couldn’t find any resource saying the specifics from past drafts, so I decided to count any type of no-trade clause, so even a 6-team no-trade list qualifies.

• Free agents after the 2025 season do not need to be protected (it is assumed that the draft takes place at the beginning of the 2025 offseason, after options and arbitration decisions, but before trades or free agent signings). Therefore, a player like Gleyber Torres does not need to be protected by the Tigers, despite never being a “true” free agent after accepting the qualifying offer.

• Any player without MLB service time who entered an organization after turning 19 with at least 3 years of service in the minors must be protected. If they entered an organization before turning 18, the requirement is at least four years of service. I believe this is the same as the Rule 5 draft eligibility rules.

You can find the sheet with the protected players from each organization here. Bolded players have no-trade clauses. When initially protecting players, I operated on what I thought the organization would do (which is beyond my pay grade, but a necessary task to make this possible). When doing the picks for the expansion teams and protections in the following two rounds, I operated based on what I would do; it’s far easier to write the article that way, and second-order thinking and beyond from an organization’s standpoint is just too much.

The philosophy I believe expansion teams would adopt is a focus on young, cost-controlled talent and prospects, especially with pitchers. Teams have been far more protective of their prospects in recent years, in line with their increased odds of success with modern player development, so a chance to snatch a couple of players from each organization on the younger end for free is worth its weight in gold. There’s also some strategy with the knowledge that the other team in the draft can only pick one player from an organization per round. If the other side picks a player from an organization early, you can sit on your preferred player from that organization until later and get a player from a different organization instead. If a player appears to go “too low” in a given round, that’s probably why. While the expansion team could make trades with organizations to guarantee certain players would not be chosen, or sign free agents to lock in certain roster spots ahead of time, I haven’t considered that in this simulation.

Of course, this is all extremely subjective, and it’s a lot of names to work through. There definitely can be mistakes on eligibility, or missing a player that should be protected or selected. I think it does its job, though, of demonstrating what an expansion team under the rules used in past expansion drafts would look like.

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1.1 Nashville - Didier Fuentes - 20 - Atlanta Braves - SP

If you’ve read my article about my simulated tenure of the Rangers, you’ll already know I’m a big fan of Fuentes. He’s surged through the minors at just 20 years old with a nearly major-league-ready arsenal, and yet has clear areas to grow in the years ahead. His availability is a testament to the Braves’ swath of players that are justifiable for protection, rather than any serious flaw in his game. Perhaps the most obvious player to expose in Fuentes’ place is Sean Murphy, but I think his above-average bat and glove on a good contract is something a contending Braves team desperately needs. For what it’s worth, if Murphy is available in this spot, I think he gets picked as well.

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1.2 Portland - Tobias Myers - 27 - Milwaukee Brewers - SP

Like the Mets, I believe Myers is roughly the same pitcher he was a year ago when he had a 16% K-BB%. The main problem was a high carry fastball that was too often knocked around, but his slider and changeup remain quality. I think it’s fairly reasonable to expect an ERA around 4 next season, which is virtually impossible to find in the player pool, combined with an invaluable 5 years of control.

1.3 Portland - Alex Freeland - 24 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SS

The Dodgers have such an incredible amount of exposed talent that a player considered a top 100 prospect a year ago is available. Freeland is a jack-of-all-trades type: he plays second, short, and third well, hits for decent power, is well-disciplined, and has significantly improved his ability to put bat on ball. He can easily slot into the top of the order for Portland up the middle.

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1.4 Nashville - Jose Caballero - 29 - New York Yankees - SS

Caballero is one of the most undervalued players in the league. He’s paced for 3 fWAR per 650 PA in each of the past three years, and in 2025, it was nearly 4. He’s a set-and-forget shortstop, with elite baserunning, and quality of contact that nets him average offensive results. His one wart is his performance against breaking stuff: he’s never been even passable against it, but the whiffs are better than you may think, coming at a rate of just over 30%. With the flexibility to also man shortstop, third base, and a corner outfield spot, Caballero is well deserving of a top selection.

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1.5 Portland - Austin Martin - 26 - Minnesota Twins - OF

I lovingly call Austin Martin a “baby” Geraldo Perdomo. He has similarly great contact and chase rates to Perdomo pre-breakout, and has flashed the ability to hit balls at optimal launch angles, a catalyst to Perdomo’s elite play this past season. A key difference is defense: Perdomo is a great defender, while Martin has no true home. If Martin can become passable at the defensive end, he can make himself into a quality regular starter.

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1.6 Nashville - Dominic Canzone - 28 - Seattle Mariners - OF

Canzone’s strict platoon role with the Mariners, with various offensive improvements, catapulted him to career-best results, cutting his whiff against 4-seamers by 10% and breakers by 6% en route to a 141 wRC+. He demonstrated a renewed ability to pull the ball, which will let him tap into his power more. Like Martin, his defense in the outfield is questionable, but ultimately tolerable with the thump he provides.

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1.7 Portland - Shane Drohan - 27 - Boston Red Sox - SP

Drohan is far too good to stick in Triple-A. He had three pitches post whiff rates over 40%, including his Grade-A changeup that lends favorable comparisons to other lefties who ride quality changeups to success like Joey Cantillo and Ian Seymour. Drohan has a more complete arsenal than either, for my money, and he can push his offerings 2 ticks further. There’s a case to be made that he should go significantly higher based on his talent (#2 ahead of Myers?), because this is a solid starter at worst out of the box.

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1.8 Nashville - Joshua Baez - 22 - St. Louis Cardinals - OF

I would imagine that this is the most controversial pick of the first round, but I think Baez has turned a corner as a prospect. After being promoted to Double-A, he managed a .886 OPS at just barely over 22 with quality discipline. Specifically, he elevated his power, doubling his per 162 game pace during his tougher assignment. He’s only available as a result of a lack of pitching talent in the Cardinals’ system, requiring the few they have to be prioritized in their 15 protected slots.

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1.9 Portland - Connor Norby - 25 - Miami Marlins- 3B

This is definitely the pick most based on the “two players per team” rule. The second-best option is Adam Mazur or Griffin Conine, and while I’m a fan of the former, he’s largely uninspiring, and the latter is power with a massive hole in his swing. Neither of them ends up getting selected in this round. Norby is a starting caliber 3B with good swing decisions and pulled flyball rates, but lacks the contact or power to really distinguish himself.

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1.10 Nashville - Hunter Feduccia - 28 - Tampa Bay Rays - C

The first catcher selected, Feduccia is appealing for his high floor. He won’t overwhelm offensively, with an approach focused on taking pitches and squaring up the ball, nor behind the plate, where he is well below average. But he’s clearly good enough to be a backup at the major league level, and there are few others who meet that requirement in the exposed player pool. One thing to watch is his consistent struggle to square up offspeed offerings.

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1.11 Portland - Stephen Kolek - 28 - Kansas City Royals - SP

Kolek is the platonic ideal of a right-handed MLB pitcher in 2025/2026. Six pitches, none of which really jump off the page (maybe the changeup is plus?), and above-average results. Frankly, I’m not fully convinced - a 16% K rate and 25% CSW across 112 innings is putrid - but he should be able to eat innings at a minimum.

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1.12 Nashville - Kai-Wei Teng - 27 - San Francisco Giants - SP

A late-season addition to the Giants’ roster, and a recent addition to the Astros’ in real life, Teng offers quality contact suppression across the arsenal. The sweeper is capable, the curve is hard and gets lateral movement extremely well, and the changeup and sinker manage good dive to elicit tons of grounders. There’s the tiniest glimpse of former teammates Logan Webb and Landen Roupp in his approach.

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1.13 Portland - Daniel Schneemann - 29 - Cleveland Guardians - 2B

Middle infielders can be hard to find, so while an uninspiring option, Daniel Schneemann offers quality defense up the middle with passable offensive output. He cut down his whiff quite a bit this season, so one can hope that he continues on that path.

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1.14 Nashville - ​Kevin Alcantara - 23 - Chicago Cubs - OF

There are things to like with Alcantara, but the strikeout rate immediately jumps off the page. It’s nearly 30% in Triple-A, which implies a strikeout rate close to 35 at the major league level, a mark hard to justify. His 90th percentile EV jumped 3 mph in his second season at the level, which is a good sign for the power ahead, and his glove has never been a question. But a more offensively minded Jose Siri may be the most likely scenario, and that’s not particularly appetizing.

1.15 Portland - ​Blaze Alexander - 26 - Arizona Diamondbacks - 3B

Beyond his name, Alexander is desirable for his top-end power potential. He is able to barrel up the ball consistently, but lacks the fly ball rates, or the contact skills (32% K% in ~300 2025 MLB PA), to make full use of it. He doesn’t have too serious a weakness against secondary stuff, although he will likely never be super proficient at punishing it, and he isn’t anything special at the hot corner. I think one hopes for league-average offense with slightly above-average defense at third.

1.16 Nashville - Yohendrick Pinango - 23 - Toronto Blue Jays - OF

There were a number of options here - the main one being Detroit’s former outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy -, but I favor Pinango for his top-of-the-line power metrics with great contact rates. He’s heavily reliant on seeing fastball variations to make an impact, with no xWOBA above .310 against any secondary pitch type in his time at Triple-A, and his defense is questionable. Pinango should be a solid MLB left-handed option, but he will need to recognize spin better to be a real difference maker.

1.17 Portland - Cole Winn - 26 - Texas Rangers - RP

Many have discussed Jake Latz as a candidate to convert to a starting role, but I think his teammate Cole Winn may have an even better case. His fastball comes in flat and hard, the slider gets great depth, the splitter gets great run, and the sinker and cutter are good contributors. The five-pitch mix is already there: it’s just a question of his velocity over a 5-6 inning stretch, and command, which is already lackluster as a reliever. Even if he lost 3 mph, I think he’d be good enough to be selected here.

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1.18 Nashville- Kyle Leahy - 28 - St. Louis Cardinals - RP

Another starter conversion candidate. He’s a good supinator with great extension, but much like Latz, his velocity may sink too low to be a viable starter. While his 4-seam sits a solid 95 now, he struggles to find whiffs on any of his 6 pitches (only his curve is above average), with zone rates that are far too high. Leahy feels like a decent #5 starter that may level up if he can find the edges of the zone more consistently.

1.19 Portland - Gunnar Hoglund - 26 - Sacramento Athletics - SP

“The Athletics” have few options, so I opt for Hoglund, a viable starting arm. He offers good vert with his over-the-top slot, a solid four pitch mix, and above average command. I would be curious how re-introducing a small sweeping slider, or a curve, would alter his fortunes with the 17-inch gap between his fastball and sweeper at present.

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*All remaining players in this round are from teams that have already been selected from, so the pick order listed is arbitrary*

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1.20 Nashville - Jacob Latz - 29 - Texas Rangers - RP

Latz’s starting candidacy rests on his changeup with great carry from the left-hand side, a blueprint that many pitchers, like the previously drafted Shane Drohan, have used to moderate success. I’m not sold, however, that his 4-seam fastball could survive the velocity loss 5-inning outings would incur, and his curveball and sliders are only passable. I would expect an ERA around 4 without significant improvement in one of his other three pitches if all goes well, which isn’t a ringing endorsement.

1.21 Portland - Blake Tidwell - 24 - San Francisco Giants - SP

A part of the Tyler Rogers trade, Blake Tidwell levelled up his command considerably this season, especially on the sinker and slider. It’s been almost exclusively fastball and slider variations for Tidwell, which may limit his ability to handle left-handed hitting, but at least he’s shown solid results from his changeup in Triple-A (37% whiff rate on 9% usage).

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1.22 Nashville - David Festa - 25 - Minnesota Twins - SP

David Festa struggled in 2025, but he has characteristics that make him a strong candidate to target. He has great extension on good velocity, and gets great separation between 4-seam and changeup with just a 6 mph differential. The slider looks plus as well, offering 2 pitches for whiffs. He will always get tons of flyballs with his natural carry, but if he can avoid barrels, he should be a solid pitcher for the years ahead.

1.23 Portland - Miguel Amaya - 26 - Chicago Cubs - C

Amaya is another catcher that ideally serves as a backup, but he’s proved offensively capable across three different campaigns at the bare minimum. He’s struggled to pick up anything that isn’t straight at pace, but he should still manage an 85-90 wRC+ for several years more. Defensively, he’s nothing special, but he may grade out slightly above average long-term.

1.24 Nashville - Garrett Whitlock - 29 - Boston Red Sox - RP

The Red Sox proactively handed Whitlock a 6-year deal with 2 team options, of which only 1 guaranteed year remains. That’s a ton of flexibility for a pitcher that has shown great results as a reliever and flashes as a starter. Fascinatingly, he can get tons of ride from his sinker, but also get preposterous depth on his slider, sweeper, and change, which is amazing separation. Even if he never starts again, I can confidently say he will be a top-end reliever for the duration of his deal.

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1.25 Portland - JC Escarra - 30 - New York Yankees - C

Escarra is nothing exciting as a catcher. He’s a solid defensive catcher, a below-average hitter, and is already 30 years old. His one main skill is his discipline - he never chases - and can make great contact in-zone when he does swing. I think he has the ability to maintain a spot on a major league roster for the next few years as a left-handed-hitting catcher, which can’t be found too often.

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1.26 Nashville - River Ryan - 27 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SP

One could argue that Ben Casparius should be here instead, but the similarities with Sheehan a year ago for Ryan are too clear to ignore. There’s the obvious fact that they both are just off Tommy John surgery, but they also offer the same plan of attack. A perfectly separated fastball and slider lead the way, with the former as flat as you like at 96, and the latter with above-average depth at a hard 90 mph. The commonalities continue with his solid changeup at 90 mph, but that’s where it ends. Ryan also carries two other offerings: a big sweeping curve at 83 that dominated in his brief Triple-A stint in 2024, and a sturdy sinker. Most importantly, though, River’s command is much shakier than Emmet’s. This is especially relevant with his 4-seamer; he infrequently is able to land it at the top of the zone, and that’s a critical pillar of Sheehan’s success. I think there’s a clear path to viability for Ryan, but I believe it’ll take more than simply getting back to his 2024 form.

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1.27 Portland - Grant Holmes - 29 - Atlanta Braves - SP

He may be out for most of 2026, but I think Holmes’ arsenal still makes picking him worth it. His slider is elite with great depth, the curveball is 83 with a 12/6-type arc, and his cutter has great lift at 92. The 4-seamer is the definition of dead zone, but the three secondaries should keep him as an above-average pitcher for most of his 5 remaining years of control.

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1.28 Nashville - Abner Uribe - 25 - Milwaukee Brewers - RP

A great, young sinker/slider reliever. He loves the backdoor sinker to RHB, which is an atypical wrinkle for his archetype that he utilizes well.

Now the teams get to protect three more players ahead of the next 28-pick round. As we go deeper into the draft, it’s harder to tell how a team would operate. For example, would the Dodgers protect Teoscar Hernandez here over solid depth OF Ryan Ward? I chose to do so, but it’s possible they would be willing to expose him for at least another round to protect other players in the organization. The same goes for Tanner Scott, whom I do opt to expose for a round longer. The extra year is really killer.

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Alright, back to it.

2.1 Portland - Yariel Rodriguez - 28 - Toronto Blue Jays - SP

Yariel’s big advantage is finding outlier pitch shapes on both the arm-side and glove-side. His 4-seam and slider both get more cut than one would anticipate, and while the 4-seam leans more towards dead zone than anything else, the slider can be heavily relied on to perform. He also has a splitter and sinker that get more run than average, and the splitter is the pitch to watch across his whole arsenal. It can certainly be plus, with its great velocity (89 mph), elite run (16 inches), and solid location.

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2.2 Nashville - Trei Cruz - 27 - Detroit Tigers - SS

Trei Cruz is another super senior at the Triple-A level, but he’s a plug-and-play middle infielder with great discipline. His chase rate is a great 17%, and his power numbers look passable (110.7 mph max EV translates to ~12 HR?) for a major league regular. I could imagine him as an average leadoff hitter next season if called upon.

2.3 Portland - Ben Williamson - 25 - Seattle Mariners - 3B

I think Williamson is a little better than he let on during his inaugural 295 MLB plate appearances. He should be a stable hand in the lineup, with a mature, patient approach that allows him to handle all pitch types in Triple-A. A 58% groundball rate is probably harsh for his talent, and DRS gave him a great evaluation of +8 in his half-season at the hot corner. Of the options coming up, I’m most confident that Williamson will be a solid major leaguer in three years. The Rays seem to agree.

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2.4 Nashville - Ryan Ward - 27 - Los Angeles Dodgers - OF

Ward simply played well in a very hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League at the “old” age of 27, but the power/discipline blend remains enticing. He can get to decent power with an above-average whiff rate thanks to a good number of pulled flyballs, although he lacks great swing decisions or the prospect of handling LHP well.

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2.5 Portland - Ryan Gusto - 26 - Miami Marlins - SP

Another kitchen sink pitcher who feels a little better than his performance last year would have indicated. Maybe more changeups can make him a #4 SP? Tough to say.

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2.6 Nashville - Kyler Fedko - 26 - Minnesota Twins - OF

Like Ward and Cruz, Fedko was a very successful hitter in Triple-A at 25 years of age. Fedko’s best attribute is his patience - his SEAGER ranks in the 90th percentile - and his ability to pull flyballs makes up for fairly mediocre exit velocities. However, he struggles with breaking balls, and his overall 2025 numbers, which are great at a glance, are juiced by 88 games in Double-A, where he was a year older than the average player. He has a good chance of being a solid big leaguer with his power/speed combination (38 SB in 46 attempts), but a lack of promotion despite a Twins team in deep peril makes one wonder about the internal projections of him.

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2.7 Portland - Garrett Cleavinger - 31 - Tampa Bay Rays - RP

There are many east/west pitchers these days, but Cleavinger is a cut above the rest. He can push the speed and approach angle of his pitches to great success, including a great 4-seamer as an effective bridge, and he zones the ball very well. With 2 years of control, there’s plenty of value for the expansion team to float in the trade market.

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2.8 Nashville - TJ Rumfield - 25 - New York Yankees - 1B

From one former Yankee prospect to another, Rumfield impresses with pulled flyballs and contact rates, a great combination of attributes for the Stadium, but is merely mediocre everywhere else. Exhibit A: his exit velocities, which were only slightly above average in Triple-A at 25. He probably would only put up a .100 ISO in the majors, too low for most teams’ starting first basemen, but he has the advantage of being passable against LHP from the left side.

2.9 Portland - Romy Gonzalez - 29 - Boston Red Sox - UT

Gonzalez may be a one-trick pony, but he is one of the best at it. Gonzalez flourishes against LHP, consistently putting up All-Star level quality of contact against them with 50+% hard-hit rates. 2025 will likely be remembered as the high-water mark of his career - a 12.6% barrel rate and 57.3% hard-hit rate will do that - but he has the flexibility of playing first, second, and third at a competent level to remain relevant for the next several years. On the open market, I imagine he’d command around $10 million per year, which makes him a valuable trade piece during his next three years of team control.

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2.10 Nashville - Max Schuemann - 28 - Sacramento Athletics - UT

I was shocked by Schuemann’s quality of results when I saw his process. Aggressive in-zone, patient outside of it, and great contact rates when it’s over the plate. Unfortunately, I don’t think he could have average power with a metal bat, and his pulled flyball rate is totally anemic. On the plus side, he can play all the infield positions well and can even spec into the outfield. There’s a strong case to be made that I underrated him if he can grow into bottom 25% power, instead of bottom 5%. Then he’s probably a decent starter up the middle.

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2.11 Portland - Shay Whitcomb - 28 - Houston Astros - 3B/OF

Despite just 76 plate appearances at 27, I think Whitcomb could be a capable hitter at the MLB level. The main issue is his whiff rate; it’s below average even for Triple-A players, despite being the league’s average age and playing in the PCL, a league that all Triple-A pitchers avoid like the plague. He has a great pulled flyball rate with capable power, but lacks the zone contact rate to take full advantage. In 78 MLB PAs, his K rate was a reasonable 23%, which implies he could manage a K rate at a tenable level (i.e., below 30%) over a full year.

2.12 Nashville - Jordan Walker - 23 - St. Louis Cardinals - OF

Some may think that Walker should have gone significantly higher based on his pedigree, but there is very little in his play over the past two years to justify that. He was decent at the major league level in 2023, and in 2024, he was able to knock the ball around at Triple-A. But he’s lost his ability to hit any sort of soft stuff (even in that Triple-A purple patch, it was nearly a 40% whiff rate), he can barely play the outfield, and he’s always been a bit of a free swinger. Perhaps he fills out into a weak-side platoon player, but it looks like a Kelenic-esque career is ahead of him at this point.

2.13 Portland - DL Hall - 27 - Milwaukee Brewers - RP

Hall presents a very wide release from good extension, but he’s never had the command to back his above-average stuff. He looks destined for reliever purgatory with a solid fastball/slider/changeup combination, although the curveball is interesting enough that it may be able to slip through, too.

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2.14 Nashville - Trevor McDonald - 24 - San Francisco Giants - RP

McDonald gives me more Roupp vibes with his curveball/sinker duopoly. They are of two completely different minds, however. McDonald throws it extremely hard like a knuckle curve, similarly to Ben Brown, while Roupp is a softer version with tons of sweep. His command can be equally spotty, however, which, with his limited pitch selection, will severely cap how deep he can go into games.

2.15 Portland - Nick Allen - 27 - Atlanta Braves - SS

He’s a Platinum Glove-level defender and a Triple-A level hitter. When Rob Manfred implements the Designated Fielder, Portland will be in a good spot. Until then, he will be a solid backup.

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2.16 Nashville - Daniel Lynch - 29 - Kansas City Royals - SP

Lynch isn’t an inspiring option, but he at least has a deep mix. Perhaps he can push his top offering, a gyro-ish slider, a little further in usage? The problem is that he doesn’t locate it particularly well, unfortunately. Otherwise, he has only a middling changeup to take on righties.

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2.17 Portland - Tirso Ornelas - 25 - San Diego Padres - OF

A very patient hitter, Tirso Ornelas should look the part of a decent 4th outfielder by Opening Day. He’s platoon neutral as a lefty, a valuable asset, and while no standout defender, seems serviceable in a corner. Offensively, he’d ideally hit at 8 or 9 with his limited power (2.5% barrel rate in > 300 PCL PAs).

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2.18 Nashville - Marc Church - 24 - Texas Rangers - RP

Marc’s key offering is a slider that packs more lift and less cut than the typical one, a bizarre choice for someone who gets cut so effortlessly on his 4-seamer. That already gives an opportunity for a third pitch, a “true” slider, although that may be harsh on his changeup. It gets good movement at 91, but it’s new and rarely featured in the few appearances he managed in 2025. His 4-seamer is built for whiffs, with great vert and cut at 96, but its location often drifts too low in the strike zone to take full advantage. Church looks set to be an above-average reliever, but could push towards an elite option with some refinements and a third pitch to widen the arsenal.

2.19 Portland - Michael Massey - 27 - Kansas City Royals - 2B

I am the chairman of the Michael Massey fan club, which makes me hesitant to inform you that he is being picked in the middle of the second round. After a very productive 2024, his free-swinging nature made him unviable towards anything that wasn’t straight, and his minor league stint didn’t inspire much confidence in a bounce back. His fundamental skills of great in-zone contact and pulled flyball rates have remained intact through it all, though, so my hopes will as well.

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*All remaining players in this round are from teams that have already been selected from, so the pick order listed is arbitrary*

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2.20 Nashville - Brandon Birdsell - 25 - Chicago Cubs - SP

The 4-seamer may be 2 mph softer than Cade Horton’s, but in all other respects, it’s virtually identical to the fellow Cub pitching project’s interpretation. With the velocity difference in mind, we can comfortably say Birdsell’s would be below league average (Horton’s is dead average). The cutter and curve both look interesting, with the latter being remarkably similar to Horton’s version as well (Horton’s has slightly more depth), but I’m not sure they push him much further than an SP5, assuming an 8% walk rate or so. The changeup is just a mediocre arsenal filler.

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2.21 Portland - Oswaldo Cabrera - 26 - New York Yankees - UT

Cabrera has shown flashes of being an average, or even above average, hitter, but by the end of the year, he always finds himself below the going rate. He’s a handy utility man, but that’s about the extent of it.

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2.22 Nashville - Anthony Seigler - 26 - Milwaukee Brewers - C

The Brewers found something in Seigler. After being discarded by the Yankees for only managing passable numbers at Double-A at 25, Milwaukee found some extra power in his bat with no disciplinary concessions. He may only be passable behind the dish and max out as a 90 wRC+ bat, but that’s a nice asset.

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2.23 Portland - Ricardo Olivar - 24 - Minnesota Twins - C/OF

Olivar didn’t impress as much as Twins brass probably would have liked at Double-A in 2025, but the upside is still clear. He’s well-disciplined with the ability to tap into plus power at the dish, and there’s still the chance that he can play semi-regularly behind it. He may develop into an outfielder that can spec as catcher à la Ben Rice - good as a backup or in an emergency, but not capable of receiving major league pitchers consistently.

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2.24 Nashville - Javier Sanoja - 23 - Miami Marlins - 2B

Sanoja only turned 23 in September, and he already is a fringy infielder. His batted ball data will always be too soft to be a real offensive force, but I can see a world where he consistently sneaks 10 home runs per year with the overall production of an average big leaguer.

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2.25 Portland - Wenceel Perez - 26 - Detroit Tigers - OF

Perez is the rare switch hitter that prefers to bat from the right side, but he’s still capable against RHP. He’s demonstrated improvement in contact quality, from average to comfortably above, and he can man a corner outfield spot very well. He would have certainly gone earlier in the second round if middle infielders weren’t so badly in need, necessitating Trei Cruz’s selection as the first from the Tigers.

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2.26 Nashville - Leo Rivas - 28 - Seattle Mariners - 2B

The second baseman offers patience, and not much else. His Triple-A chase rate, according to ProspectSavant, was a preposterous 14% in 300 plate appearances, and in just over 100 MLB plate appearances, it was an even crazier 8%. There’s not much bite when he does choose to swing the willow, unfortunately. His EVs were horrendous, given the PCL pitching landscape and that he’s above the league’s average age at 28, but a pulled flyball rate well above average should let him sneak a few under (over?) MLB pitchers’ noses. He’s also reliant on 4-seamers and sinkers, which were the only offerings he could be an above-average contributor against in Triple-A. One can hope that he will end up as a below-average #9, but he may not even reach that.

2.27 Portland - Justin Wrobleski - 25 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SP

I don’t understand Wrobelski at all. Five of his pitches elicit groundballs 60% over the time or more, and yet he’s simply been a good reliever and average starter, at best. He performs well in the bulk reliever role with his three fastball variations, but I imagine that they won’t take him as far in a true starting job. I imagine there’s some level of deception going on that I won’t understand.

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2.28 Nashville - Bowden Francis - 29 - Toronto Blue Jays - SP

During 2024, when everyone couldn’t get enough of Bowden Francis, I was skeptical. It felt too good to be true - I didn’t see anything that merited top 20 starter performance, specifically with a fastball that looked completely “mid” yet got great results. Now, his stock couldn’t be lower. He’s fresh off a year that produced an ERA over 6.00 and ERA predicting metrics even higher, yet I see some opportunity. The splitter remains interesting, and the curveball should be better than a .454 xWOBA conceded. Definitely worth a gamble.

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Now we get to the final round, which is half the length of the prior two. A lot of teams have no enticing options available at this point (if a team had 2 players picked in each of the past two rounds, they’d have 25 players unavailable), so the teams that are picked from are surprisingly different from the prior rounds.

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3.1 Portland - Brandon Lockridge - 28 - Milwaukee Brewers - OF

Much like the other former Yankee prospect on the Brewers that was mentioned (Seigler), Lockridge has found new disciplinary skills after going abroad. His chase and whiff rates jumped from below average to well above, and while he’s 28, his bat is at a level where it just might be able to support his great abilities in center field and on the bases. A team picking him would hope that his walk rate (5.4%) will jump a little closer to his 13% minor league mark to be a real baserunning threat that can justify a good amount of time batting at 9. Otherwise, he’s probably a pinch runner and defensive replacement in the best of times.

3.2 Nashville - Lazaro Estrada - 26 - Toronto Blue Jays - RP

A debut at 26, Estrada possesses a very interesting mix that makes me wonder if he, too, could be pushed to a starting role. He naturally gets great carry on all of his pitches, and his FB/slider tunnel is already quite effective. His curve is an in-zone strike stealer, and his splitter is a Roki Sasaki-inspired shape with just 4 inches of run at 84. Even if he lost 2 mph as an SP, he probably would be serviceable. As a reliever, he should be top-end.

3.3 Portland - Nick Yorke - 23 - Pittsburgh Pirates - 2B/OF

He’s a “buy low” pick after losing many of the improvements that defined his great 2024 in 2025. His average EV fell 4 mph between seasons, despite being a year older at the same Triple-A level, and his solid discipline deteriorated with it. He’s defensively dubious at second base, and while a capable baserunner, is nothing outstanding. I think he could be a capable platoon player at second base or a corner outfield spot, but he would have to reverse his recent trends across the board.

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3.4 Nashville - Otto Kemp - 26 - Philadelphia Phillies - 1B

Kemp is a curious case as a right-handed first baseman with thump that also packs top-end speed (95th percentile by Savant in 62 games). He’s the quintessential platoon first baseman otherwise; his .977 OPS vs LHP at Triple-A would incentivize a part-time role on quite a few MLB rosters. The combination of being a weak-side platoon player and a first baseman, however, unfortunately makes him the least valuable asset one could have on an MLB position player depth chart. Romy Gonzalez, picked in the previous round, at least plays other infield spots somewhat competently and with a much better track record offensively.

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3.5 Portland - Pedro Pages - 27 - St. Louis Cardinals - C

A passable backup catcher, but not much else. Ideally, a reserve sequestered in Triple-A. At least he has above-average bat speed?

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3.6 Nashville - AJ Blubaugh - 25 - Houston Astros - SP

He’s largely here out of respect for strong public-facing analyst James Schiano, who might be a bigger fan of Blubaugh than his parents. I can see why one might like him: he pronates effortlessly, and gets the ball in the right sort of areas. His repertoire at present is far too narrow, though - a 4-seamer, sweeper, and changeup with mediocre (4-seamer, sweeper) to slightly above average (changeup) shapes isn’t going to cut it. I could see the upside if he expands his horizons, though - the curveball may lean plus as a looping strike stealer, and his rarely-used cutter might push that mark as well if the readings on low usage are accurate.

3.7 Portland - Travis Adams - 26 - Minnesota Twins - SP

Adams doesn’t impress in any particular area, but he’s not really deficient anywhere either. Perhaps his 91 mph cutter with great lateral movement can propel him to above-average results. Probably just a Triple-A depth arm, though.

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3.8 Nashville - Yanquiel Fernandez - 23 - Colorado Rockies - OF

It’s hard to make sense of Fernandez, who, after popping strong top-end EVs on low K rates in Triple-A, managed only 4 home runs in 150 plate appearances of platoon work despite lots of opportunities to hit at Coors Field. Part of that is age (he just turned 23), but I think his Triple-A performance was the best we’ll ever get of Yanquiel. He chased 40% of the time in the PCL and 36% of the time in the majors, and continues to lack any notable defensive or baserunning qualities.

3.9 Portland - Justin Slaten - 28 - Boston Red Sox - RP

I considered Ronan Kopp from the Dodgers here, but I rated Slaten’s chances of starting far higher than Kopp’s chances of becoming a dominant left-handed reliever. Slaten naturally gets lots of cut: his 4-seam runs just 2 inches, while his cutter cuts 5, and he can push upper 90s on the radar gun. His curve gets much less cut than one would expect, then, and is more of a whiff pitch than its 12-6ish shape would suggest. Turning that into a strike stealer with a high in-zone rate could make that starting vision a reality, but otherwise, he’s a capable back-end guy.

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3.10 Nashville - Mitch Spence - 27 - Sacramento Athletics - SP

Spence offers a nice cutter/sweeper combo that is prone to getting knocked around, along with a passable sweeping curve. He gets cut so naturally that his 10% usage sinker gets just 8 inches of run with great depth, and while it’s gotten hammered, I think it can have slightly better days ahead. He could also mess with a kick change to try to obtain a reliable option that moves away from LHB.

3.11 Portland - Colton Gordon - 27 - Houston Astros - SP

Gordon is an uninspiring 27-year-old rookie with a deep mix and a pronating bent. He’s a good fill-in starter, and would probably pass muster as a reliever with a narrowed mix (i.e., 4-seam, sweeper, curve?). Specifically, his lack of whiffs on any pitch is troubling. His changeup is best, but only clocks in at 26%.

3.12 Nashville - Nathan Church - 25 - St Louis Cardinals - OF

A toolsy outfielder, Church could be a solid platoon outfielder for the next few years. He didn’t overwhelm in his Triple-A stint, posting just a 4% barrel rate at near the level’s average age, and doesn’t elevate the ball well enough to compensate. But his defense may push plus, which makes him a potentially effective asset off the bench. Think Cedric Mullins without pulled flyballs, or the elite defense. That doesn’t sound too promising, now that I think about it.

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3.13 Portland - Griff McGarry - 26 - Philadelphia Phillies - SP

Griff McGarry is probably too good for Triple-A at this point, but despite his selection in the Rule 5 draft by the Nationals, it’s not clear he can consistently get MLB hitters out. His 4-seam/sweeper combination doesn’t appear too overwhelming, and it will inevitably play down with his erratic location. Perhaps he’s a capable reliever? Portland will bank on that.

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3.14 Nashville - Yohan Ramirez - 30 - Pittsburgh Pirates - RP

Despite being an MLB journeyman, there are real attributes to look forward to here. He has great extension, can get his fastball variants flat at the top of the zone, and his curveball is very effective at 83. Maybe he can’t start, but he’s a solid RP option with 3 years left.

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Conclusion

Now, the assembled lineups. First, my rough starting lineups vs. RHP and LHP for Nashville:

Nashville clearly lacks quality options vs. LHP; Feduccia is tasked with weak-side platoon work at DH, and despite Rumfield’s prowess against same-side pitching, he shouldn’t be forced to stay at 4. The lineup vs RHP is passable, although Pinango likely should be omitted for a quality free agent option. Next, Portland:

Portland is the opposite tale: quality vs LHP, including Alex Freeland all the way down at 7. Against RHP, it’s more uneven. Massey should probably not be on the roster at all, and Daniel Schneeman is in a prime hitting spot against all odds. Whitcomb’s low GIDP tendencies (with his high strikeout and flyball rates) land him at 3. Now, the pitchers:

The order for this is very arbitrary, and one would have to choose which 5 of the starter group to commit to the rotation. I leaned away from people who would have to be converted, hence why Leahy and Latz are #6 and 7.The relief corps is strong, especially if you include those two in teh fold.

Portland’s starters are better in my opinion, but at the cost of a weaker bullpen. I still don’t understand Wrobleski, (Pitching+ loves him!) and Grant Holmes is coming off surgery. Winn is a clear starting pitching project if one is desirable to the front office.

In all, the Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals had the most selections with 5. Along with those three, the Red Sox, Athletics, and Blue Jays had at least one player selected in every round. Several teams had 0, with by far the most notable being the Mets. My odds-on favorite for the most picks, the Dodgers, only had 4. I considered a lot of their older, depth pitchers in the last round, but they either were too thin in command or repertoire to make it worth the selection.

That’s it! Top 50-related stuff up next. Exciting times.

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Sources

ProspectSavant

RobertOrr’s Dashboard

BaseballReference

FanGraphs

BaseballSavant

Wikipedia (for past draft rules)

Spotrac/Cot’s for No-Trade Clauses

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This is my second year of doing the annual MLB Offseason Simulation, an exercise where engaged baseball fans take on the roles of commissioners, agents, and GMs to produce a simplified, yet somewhat realistic offseason. Teams’ GMs are assigned budgets, agents haggle for their clients, and commissioners veto deals that are egregiously lopsided (in their, sometimes controversial, opinions). Of course, it won’t be the subject of intense study for any top baseball mind - there’s nothing tangible on the line, and the participants are not an adequate replacement for front offices armed to the teeth with proprietary models and high-level analysts - but it offers an opportunity to deepen one’s knowledge of the baseball universe, and I’ve always found it a fun thought exercise.

Last time, I was given the Twins, one of the two orphans left unselected by the established GMs from prior sims. As a returning GM this year, I could rank my preferences, and the Rangers were my top choice. I’m a big Wyatt Langford fan, I really enjoyed their stadium when I visited it in 2023, and they can wield a sizable budget. My other four listed choices, to my best recollection, were the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees, and Mariners.​

As always, the #1 priority is starting pitching. It’s the most valuable commodity, so obviously it’s the most expensive and the hardest to find. Decisions have to be made about Joc Pederson, who is owed $18 million as a platoon DH, and Wyatt Langford, who is a great candidate for a long-term extension. I’m also on the hunt for strong platoon options on offense, and capable relievers who can fill out a bullpen that’s losing many of its established options to free agency. Overall, I’m taking a riskier approach than in my first go around. I’m a better evaluator of talent than I was a year ago, and sim participants tend to pool their money towards established and reliable names, leaving opportunities elsewhere.

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Notable Non-tenders/Departures

OF Adolis Garcia - I went back and forth on this one, but a 33-year-old on Opening Day that will likely be used as a weak-side platoon DH simply isn’t worth $12 million, even if he finds some better form.

C Jonah Heim - Similar to Garcia, but there’s really no redeemable quality here. His framing has regressed to below average, and offensively he’s had a demonic drop in pulled flyball rate. This does leave me exposed at catcher, but numerous options at Heim’s level in free agency will be far less than $6 million.

UT Ezequiel Duran - He’s the “utility man,” but he doesn’t play any position especially well. He should be available in free agency at his arbitration estimate of $1.5 million in the worst-case scenario.

The two relievers I considered bringing back were Phil Maton and Hoby Milner. Both were represented by the same agent, who presented no interest from either party in re-signing with the team before free agency.

My MLB Moves

The moves I made in order, with the position of a traded prospect in the team’s Pipeline prospect ranking in brackets when applicable.

Acquired RP Riley O’Brien for 2B Cody Freeman [Unranked (UR)], SP Trey Supak [UR], and SS Cameron Cauley [17] (with STL)

This happened just two days after the sim began, in part because O’Brien was a clear target from unique characteristics and being relatively cheap, and in part because the Cardinal GM was extremely easy to deal with. Riley O’Brien has two clear standout traits: a 98 mph sinker that greatly benefits from 7 feet of extension, and a funky curveball at 83 that manages good dive and sweep. The former elicits groundballs ⅔ of the time, and the latter earns a 50% whiff rate. In tandem, he can deal with any hitter effectively. With four years of control remaining, there’s a lot to like, even at 30 years old.

​In return, I sent toolsy 24-year-old Cody Freeman, who performed well in AAA but carries an approach that I doubt will sustain itself long term, a belief proven by a 120 PA sample at the major league level to end the year at a .600 OPS. I also sent Cameron Cauley, a beloved player from my OOTP saves, for his skill at shortstop, but he struggles to make enough contact on the IRL diamond to be a regular. I was hoping to use him as infield depth, but there are alternatives available on the market. Lastly, I sent journeyman starter Trey Supak.

​Acquired 1B Kody Clemens for 3B Jusin Foscue (with MIN)

I learned about Kody Clemens from Jacob Hirsh on Twitter, a Driveline employee who developed Banger+, a stat that encapsulates the quality of a hitter based on various stats that contribute to xWOBA, such as power and plate discipline. Last year, it determined that Kyle Stowers and Ben Rice were hitters to watch for, and this year, Clemens was one of the names he mentioned. One can see why Banger+ likes him so much; Clemens pulls flyballs efficiently and has far greater power than his whiff and chase rates would indicate. He also fills a need in the squad for a platoon first baseman, and he can even fill time at second base and the outfield as well. The price was low, given that Clemens has had just one year of (relative) success: Justin Foscue, who looks like a filler player in the Triple-A squad after lots of hype as a first-round draft pick several years ago. Two players with funny names were also swapped in the deal at the Twins GM’s request.

​Acquired C J.C. Escarra for SP Izack Tiger [21] (with NYY)

This trade gets me a catcher to replace Jonah Heim as the backup catcher, and humorously creates a “former Yankee” tandem with Kyle Higashioka. He’s certainly longer in the tooth than one would expect for a rookie at 30 years old, but he demonstrated passable offensive skills and above-average defense for his role. I gave Izack Tiger in return, who missed all of 2025 due to an internal brace operation after being drafted in the 7th round of 2023. He certainly has some potential, but he will be 25 years old on Opening Day with virtually no experience beyond A ball.

Acquired SP Adam Mazur for SP Enrique Segura [UR], OF Andry Batista [UR] (with MIA)

I discovered Mazur in random pitcher research, and while no game-changer, he has some interesting traits that could make him a good back-end guy in a time of need. He first caught my eye for his cut-ride fastball with good carry at 95 mph, and the deep mix with solid offerings confirmed my interest. His natural ability to get cut and sweep makes me think his above-average slider can be pushed a little further, and his 89 mph changeup with above-average carry and below-average run feels like a pitch that can get results based on my recollection of similar shapes. Even if he doesn’t ever see relevant playing time, the cost is modest: Enrique Segura, acquired from the Phillies for David Robertson and currently ranked as the Rangers’ 22nd best prospect on FanGraphs, and Andry Batista, an outfielder in the complex league.

​Signed SP Michael King to a 5 years/$105 million contract

I didn’t plan on signing Michael King in free agency, but when Shane Bieber accepted his player option, I lost my top preference. King was a strong second option for several reasons. First, he’s a pitcher I can grasp very well. A big pronator in typical “Yankee pitching product” style, he wields a big changeup and sinker with an effective sweeper, and can provide length with quality ratios. Second, he’s coming off an injury that seemed far less impactful on his play than the discourse would indicate. He got just one rehab start when returning from shoulder nerve impingement, hurt his knee on return, and then got no rehab starts before being thrown back into the fire once again a month later. His shapes were also askew for the final month, cutting into his great lateral movement, but he held firm on velocity and strike rates all the same. His final numbers weren’t very convincing as a result, but he was dominant before hitting the IL, placing 17th in SIERA and 13th in K-BB% across 50 innings. If you think he will return to his prior ability to spin the ball (his changeup had more lateral movement than Devin Williams prior to injury, for reference), there should be no concern about King.

His real-life deal is worth discussing because the structure was completely different from mine. He got 3 years/$75 million with two opt-outs, structured such that King will receive $22 million if it is cut short at 1 year, $45 million if he takes the second opt-out after 2027, or $75 million if he rides it out entirely. There are two scenarios here: he either rides the whole deal out or he opts out early. Analyzing ‘riding it out’ is easy: I get a better deal if he would theoretically take 2 years/$30 million or more thereafter, with the obvious assumption that he struggled based on not opting out at either opportunity. Michael Wacha seems like a strong comparison: like King, he hopes to be an effective innings eater with a deep mix predicated on the success of his changeup. Wacha’s contract guarantee was 3 years/$51 million after two seasons where he averaged a 4.2 SIERA and 14 K-BB%, middling marks at best, and that’s still a far bigger guarantee than King would need in this scenario.

​Next, I’ll look at the scenario where he opts out, which is likely given that he favored this type of structure. If he performs well enough to opt out, there is a good chance he will get a deal similar to the one I offered him. Maybe it’s only 3 or 4 years with a higher AAV, but it’d be similar overall. I’d say my evaluation was spot on - the median publicly contract projection was this deal without the opt-outs, which, in King’s case, are extraordinarily valuable. It’s difficult to assess how much, but one can consider what type of deal he’d be willing to take as a 3-year alternative without the opt-outs. Would he take an extra $10 million guaranteed to remove them? Almost certainly not. $20 million? Maybe. $30 million? I’d say so. I would certainly be willing to rip them out for $15 million, so let’s go with that as the best-case scenario for the team. My apples-to-apples comparison, then, is 3 years/$90 million compared to 5 years/$105 million. Then it’s a simple bit of analysis again: if you think he could fetch 2 years/$15 million following 2028, my deal is superior. My best guess is he got offers similar to mine and opted (pun intended) to bet on himself.

Signed RP Emilio Pagan for 2 years/$22 million

This free agent class was strong in the reliever department, so despite Pagan being perhaps the 4th best option, I’m elated to get him. In 2025, he made several tweaks that make the problems from his weak 2024 unlikely to rear their head again, and especially so with his splitter. That splitter has seen its shape shift across 3 years, first from above-average carry and run at 86, then to more dead zone at 84, and finally reaching the present version with above-average cut that gives it an unusual lack of horizontal separation with the 4-seamer. Interestingly, the strike rate on the pitch has increased each subsequent year, from 52% in 2023, to 60% in 2024, and finally 65% in 2025.

​Otherwise, Pagan offers a 4-seamer that packs a punch at 96, and a cutter that almost moves like a slider at 87. It’s gotten killed the past two years, but I don’t quite get it - surely 75% of flyballs going over the fence can’t persist when it fools hitters so regularly (59th percentile chase rate, 86th percentile whiff rate).

Overall, I believe in Pagan’s new splitter to produce great results, and his two fastballs feel a little hard done by their results in the recent past.

Acquired C Blake Mitchell [2] for SP Jose Corniell [3] and RP Josh Sborz (with KC)

I’m not one to turn down a chance to buy low, so when I was offered Blake Mitchell for a pitching prospect, I couldn’t turn it down. 6 months ago, Mitchell was higher ranked than Carter Jensen. A broken hamate delayed his season debut, and then drained his power output to just 2 home runs in 49 games, but studies on prior hamate injuries indicate that there should be no serious long-term effects.

There is some signal to a drop in OPS post hamate injury (p-value = .10), but there are no resounding long-term effects based on MLB’s limited precedent. [Source: Journal of Sport Rehabilitation]

​I send back Jose Corniell, who looks like a high-floor pronator for the back end of a rotation. He packs five offerings: 4-seam, sinker, cutter, changeup, and sweeper, but none of his pitches strike me as more than a hair above average. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with that, of course, but it limits his upside considerably.

​I also give up Josh Sborz, who is returning from injury and was (to my surprise) non-tendered in real life. It can never be a bad idea “to follow the money,” so when the Royals wanted him as a throw-in, I obliged. Sborz sported 3 different pitches with a 35% whiff rate and 30% chase rate in 2023, so there’s clear upside on the table, but I’ll find other opportunities.

Acquired IF Romy Gonzalez for 2B Marcus Semien ($24 million retained of $72 million outstanding) and 2B Santiago Almao [UR] (with BOS)

I certainly did not plan on moving Marcus Semien at the start of the sim. He just turned 35, has 3 years left, is owed $66 million, and he had his worst full year in 7 years. But Boston’s GM, whom I managed to pull off the Emmet Sheehan deal with last year, wanted to do something unexpected again. He saw Semien’s elite pulled flyball rate as an impetus for loads of extra base hits off the Green Monster, a feature Globe Life Field unfortunately has yet to install, and money is of minimal consequence in Beantown. He remains a positive defender at 2B as well, although he had his worst season there since he permanently moved from shortstop in 2021.

​The story from Boston’s side is easy to understand. Everything but his defense (which can be noisy) and his contact rates have remained intact. If he were a free agent, I’d be significantly interested in buying the dip. But at 35, it’s difficult to regain lost territory offensively; I remember people believing Nolan Arenado would recover his offensive losses a few years ago, and they only continued to compound. Now, Semien is no Arenado - Arenado’s degradation was far wider in scope and dramatic in scale - but regression can happen quickly at Semien’s age. In particular, I worry about his offensive capabilities when he stops hitting 4-seamers as ferociously - he’s always achieved most of his numbers through knocking them around, but he just had his worst numbers against them since 2015, when Statcast tracking began. He’s also usually been passable at secondary stuff, but he was below average (< .300 wOBA) against both for the first time since 2018. His offensive profile may simply be slowly wilting away from Father Time.

​Now, to facilitate the deal, I send $9 million per year. I’m willing to pay such a price because I get a one-for-one replacement in Romy Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a specialist at facing LHP, the major vacancy from moving Semien, and he does it well. He managed a .389 xWOBA against them last year and a .367 in 2024, and he can play almost anywhere in the infield at a passable level. Most importantly, the $15 million of salary relieved from my budget creates more opportunities for moves! How fun.

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Acquired 1B Andres Chaparro for SP Leandro Lopez [29] (with WAS)

I desperately wanted Chaparro last year, and now I’ve finally got him. Chaparro is my dream skill set; great swing decisions with an elite amount of pulled flyballs. With Triple-A Rochester, he was in the top 10% in both metrics (including being clear #1 in swing decisions by SEAGER), and finished in the top 15% in both during his abridged MLB stint. He seems to struggle with secondary offerings, but it’s not like he’s a fish out of water. He’s still making the proper swing decisions, and when he connects, they’re incredibly productive pieces of contact. It feels like a mechanical issue that can still be resolved.

​I send back Leandro Lopez, who performed well in Double-A at 23 with a strong curve and slider, but is entirely redundant in the current setup, especially when considering what is to come. He seems likely to be a #5 starter in the future.

Acquired SP Grant Kipp for SP Daniel Missaki (with CHC)

The Cubs wanted Missaki, and I took back an unlikely-to-ever-pitch-in-the-majors starter in return.

Minor League Signings

In the final week of the sim, teams get the opportunity to sign up to 10 players to bolster the depth of their organization. This year, certain changes have been made to improve the process considerably; instead of doing open bidding that can take days and involve bids being increased by negligible percentages, there are three “tiers”: $100k, $250k, and $500k, with at least the MLB minimum ($780k) required to go any further. A lot of thought must be placed, then, into which of the tiers one will place the players they want. If you risk a player for $100k, the cheapest you can get them on your 2nd try is $500k! My strategy was to place almost everyone at $250k, since almost none of the guys I was interested in would have the appeal to command half a million in salary. In the end, I was correct: no player whom I ever offered a minor league deal got bid up.

​OF Sam Haggerty ($250k) - I went back and forth on tendering him a deal at the start of the sim, and opted not to in the end. I will likely need him in the outfield, given a deal that is about to come, so I will bring him back at a small discount. He’s a capable 4th outfielder, and certainly can play every day after LHP.

​SP Corbin Martin ($250k) - There are some characteristics to like here. A cut-ride fastball at 96, a slider with tons of carry at 92, and a nasty 12/6 curve at 87 mph. The curve feels like the biggest focal point for improvement, given it has had only middling results on 20% usage. I’d be surprised if he isn’t at least an above-average reliever with some better fortune.

​RP Jonathan Loaisiga ($250k) - Loaisiga is my type of reliever: a big pronator with great stuff at hard velocity. He wasn’t at his best on return from injury, and struggles to stay on the field in general, but the upside is clearly there. I would be wrong to omit that the quirks of the signing system let him slip into my hands - the Nationals tried to give him a guaranteed major league deal I certainly could not offer myself, but confusion allowed the deadline to pass before their offer could be “officially” submitted.

​RP Yohan Ramirez ($250k) - The Pirates let Ramirez go, and I think there’s a lot to like here. He has great extension (>7 feet) on good velocity (96 mph) and can spin the ball well. The fastball gets slaughtered on horrific placement, but that can be easily adjusted (more elevating), and there are options to expand his repertoire to reduce its load. He has a sinker that should be at least average, and he has plenty of space for a gyro slider, which he abandoned prior to 2023. It’d fill the giant chasm between his sweeper and 4-seamer, and help him fix his horrendously bad splits vs LHB. A changeup may help, too, although he’s never really thrown one.

​2B Luis Garcia, Jr. ($500k) - I was surprised when he was non-tendered, despite a fairly steep $7 million arbitration price tag, and even more so when nobody offered him a major league deal to usurp this offer. Garcia is a proven MLB regular that can be a platoon 2B if needed, and has some upside with career-best groundball and pull rates in 2025. The one sore spot is his fielding, but if he can post an .800 OPS against RHP, he can always DH.

​The next four are unconfirmed as of writing, but given I likely got most of them, I’ll include them anyway.

​OF Tommy Pham ($500k) - An additional bit of outfield depth that may finally be over the hill after a 7% spike in groundball rate in 2025. Worth the gamble.

​SP Bailey Falter ($500k) - Bailey offers great extension and cut on all of his pitches, yet struggles to get lots of lateral movement on any of his pitches. I’m shocked he’s as bad as he is, given how unique some of his offerings are; a sweeper to broaden his horizons may be in order.

​RP Daison Acosta ($100k) - Top prospect Max Clark said he had the best splitter he saw all year. Good enough for me.

SP Aaron Civale ($100k) - He’s got a deep mix with a quality cutter and should reliably post ERAs between 4 and 4.5. Good SP depth at a good price when guys like Miles Mikolas are getting $250k.​

I had one slot remaining, which I ran out of time to use while trying to ensure I got certain free agents. I likely would have used it on 2B Kyle Farmer.

My MLB Moves (Part 2)

With around a week left, I go hunting for quality pitching talent to reinforce the organization and position players to fill the roster’s last holes.

​

Acquired SP Jake Bloss [8] for RP Emiliano Teodo [14] (with TOR)

Much like with Sheehan last year, I’m “trusting my evaluation” of Bloss. Bloss is a real outlier - he runs a 5 pitch mix with great extension, carry, and cut across almost all of his offerings. His curveball is especially interesting, managing 6 extra inches of depth on average lateral movement, and I believe the changeup and sweeper can be pushed slightly further to become even more interesting pitches - the latter could even be broken into two distinct offerings if he desired. The one downside is that he got UCL surgery in May, which means I’m risking regression in velocity and command upon return. I think it’s well worth the risk, though. In the worst case, you probably could make him a fastball/slider/curve reliever with success.

When I drew up my plans before the sim, I really didn’t want to move Teodo. I’m confident he’ll find his way to being a great reliever, despite constant command issues in the minors, but I’m too big a fan of what I’m getting back to pass it up. Teodo can push 100 on his sinker and wields a 91 mph changeup.

Signed RP Mark Leiter Jr. for 1 year/$780k

Only upon writing this am I realizing that this is now the 2nd Leiter on the Rangers’ roster. Leiter Jr. was inexplicably poor in New York: his sinker performed worse than ever despite being up 2 ticks to 93 in ‘25, the splitter elicited a “career-worst” 42% whiff rate, while also up 2 ticks, and the curve simultaneously offered a career-worst 20% chase rate and a typical 50%(!!) whiff rate. It’s a lot of outlier results that I can’t quite understand after some investigation, so I’ll pay the minimum and pray that the pendulum swings back in his direction. He’s one of perhaps five pitchers that can realistically have 2 50+% whiff rate pitches, after all.

​

Acquired SP Didier Fuentes [7] for OF Alejandro Osuna and OF Yeremy Cabrera [16] (with ATL)

One thing I always try to do is acquire players with upside I can understand (how else can I write pages of analysis about them?). I am fluent in Didier Fuentes’ language; generationally flat 4 seamers upstairs, 82 mph sweepers that can elicit whiffs 40% of the time against opposition 5 years older than him, and a curve that he can spin 15 inches away from RHB at good velocity. He is also working on a splitter with good carry and run at 88 that should be at least an average offering before too long. There’s plenty to speculate on, too - could he make his sweeper a little tighter, into a “true” slider, and push the velocity to 85? Could he add a cutter in the 18-inch gap between fastball and sweeper at present? It’d likely get solid vert and velocity based on the rest of his arsenal. The opportunities are endless.

The pitches are great, but what about the results? Across 57 minor league innings, Fuentes had a 23% K-BB%... at 20 years old. He won’t be 21 until June. He was at his best in Triple-A, relinquishing just 4 walks in 22 innings while posting 29 strikeouts. It’s not from recklessly pounding the zone either - his average EV conceded was in the 53rd percentile, and xWOBA was in the 60th, according to ProspectSavant. In the majors, his approach proves it’s not him simply overpowering people. Lots of heaters up, curves, sweepers, and splitters down. If anything, the secondaries are too safe, with swing rates below average on all three. Given his last start was at 20 years, 21 days old, he deserves some slack.

​

Fuentes performed at an elite level for his age in his limited Triple-A stint. [Source: ProspectSavant]

Trading Alejandro Osuna wasn’t easy, but you don’t get guys like Fuentes for free. He posts great discipline and contact rates, but I question if the power will make him anything more than a good on-base and speed guy long-term. A 90th percentile EV of 103 mph (in 48 PA, admittedly) is not turning any heads against an incredibly weak Pacific Coast League pitching contingent. Cabrera is an interesting Single-A flier.

Moving Osuna does leave an outfield gap that needs addressing. I, of course, decide to make my worst decision of the sim in response, making things nice and complicated.

Signed SS Amed Rosario for 1 year/$3 million

“What’s wrong with Amed Rosario?” I hear you asking. There’s no room for him on the 26-man. Well, almost. With a typical 2 catcher/7 infielder/4 outfielder (Joc is considered an OF for this exercise) breakdown, Rosario is my 8th infielder. I can fix that by demoting Abimelec Ortiz (a fringy outfielder who can’t face LHP) and retaining Joc at DH, but RF is then vacant against both LHP and RHP. Finding someone who can face both sides of the rubber at a competent level at this point is basically impossible, so that demands a positional realignment. The best option is to ask Josh Smith to man LF against LHP, with Haggerty promoted to platoon duty, but then Rosario or Gonzalez must start vs RHP.

The alternative is to sign a left-handed outfielder for substantial budget space (i.e., Mike Yastrzemski or Max Kepler), and skip out on Seranthony Dominguez, my top remaining reliever target. I can always sign one of the 10 niche relievers I’ve discovered in the past two months for the minimum. This alternative makes more sense, but there’s a much higher chance I’m outbid on Yastrzemski and end up with neither. The safe, sub-optimal option, or the risky, precise one?

Signed OF Mike Yastrzemski for 1 year/$9 million with $8 million team option

I was emboldened to take the risky route with the $2 million I had in my remaining budget as insurance, and it worked out. I opted to pursue Yastrzemski over Kepler for two reasons. First, he’s capable in center field, which is a useful quality for a team without a bona fide one. Second, he demonstrated elite contact skills in the second half, which allowed his K rate to drop 10% with a slightly higher walk rate. I think some of his improvements could stick and make him a 2.5 to 3-win player for both years of his deal.

There were plenty of quality relievers left to fill the last bullpen spot, but in the end, I opted to pencil Curvelo in there because of fears I’d be bid up on Yas. Nobody did in the end, so I finished my tenure with around $1.5 million to spare after my final MiLB signings.

Conclusion

Funnily enough, a lot of my expectations ended up being subverted. I acquired tons of supinators, after a Twins sim that scarcely had one, although my love of pronators still comes through in my two biggest acquisitions, King and Fuentes. The two players I wanted the most weren’t any of the players I acquired. I didn’t expect to move Marcus Semien whatsoever, and I never got around to extending Langford. Even my top free agent target, Shane Bieber, accepted his player option.

My offensive group is slightly weaker than it perhaps should be. I awkwardly have to place Josh Smith, Amed Rosario, or Romy Gonzalez at 2B against LHB, and I opt for the iteration that places Rosario in right. Against RHB, the lineup is solid (Burger should rebound to at least league average), but perhaps I should have dumped Pederson for a more flexible lineup option. The lineup inflexibility means Evan Carter is better left in the minors in favor of Haggerty. Alternatively, one can play one of Clemens/Carter/Yastrzemski against LHP. My Twins’ group last year was statistically worse, but the confusion against LHP leaves me wondering if that attack was better constructed.

The average of xWOBA against RHP is .338, and against LHP is .335. For context, with the Twins, it was .338 and .346, respectively.

The pitching is a different matter. The Rangers have a rock-solid front 4, no matter what Leiter’s SIERA may indicate, and there’s sufficient coverage (Rocker, Fuentes, Mazur, Falter, Civale) to fill until Jake Bloss returns or a lower-level arm like Davalillo is ready. The relievers are much weaker statistically, but I think they’re a much stronger group than is indicated. I suspect O’Brien and Winn will significantly outperform their 2025 SIERAs in the long run with their outstanding skills. Latz is a contender to be converted into a starter as a lefty with a great changeup in the mold of Seymour and Cantillo, and Curvelo will be on a short leash anyway. The main uncertainty revolves around Jacob Webb, who was non-tendered by the Rangers (and since signed by the Cubs) after battling back spasms mid-year. It’s quite possible that it will be a recurring issue that will sink his season, but I couldn’t have known with the sim non-tender deadline coming several days before the real-life one.

One serious question mark is Kumar Rocker. On debut, he utilized his great extension with a binary 4-seam and gyro slider mix, but after April, he chose to run 3 fastball variations almost exclusively while sidelining his dominant slider. My faith comes primarily from the new cutter, which was a revelation in its June and July tour of duty. You can’t fake a 36% whiff rate and 44% chase rate on strong bipartisan usage (37%!), and it’ll likely be the backbone of his arsenal going forward. His second half string of starts felt like an exploratory episode more than him going at his best; there’s no way he’s sticking to a 6% slider usage rate long term when it is a plus offering. There’s still work to be done, but there’s a #3 pitcher in there if the cutter, 4-seamer, and slider can collaborate with strong strike rates.

The average of the starters’ and relievers’ SIERA are both 3.85. For reference, the Twins were 3.65 and 3.22(!!), respectively.

The overall results for RP are far weaker than the Twins’ sim, but one can only take SIERA so far. Humorously, the pitcher with the highest SIERA I counted for this exercise with the Twins was Emmet Sheehan, of all people. If the pitches are there, the results should soon follow.

Overall, I’d say my Twins sim was stronger than this one; the roster felt more cohesive, and I enacted my pre-sim vision more closely. With that being said, there’s plenty of talent I took risks on here that could make this look far better, or worse, than I expect. That is to say, the variance on this sort of exercise is so high that I’ll look foolish one way or another in six months. At the very least, I think I helped the Rangers’ long-term future substantially while keeping the team competitive in 2026, which is a good outcome.

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Sources

FanGraphs

BaseballReference

BaseballSavant

ProspectSavant

PitcherList

Robert Orr’s Realestmuto Dashboard

MLBPipeline

Spotrac

Cot’s Baseball Contracts

For conclusion graphics:

Datawrapper

Canva

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Neither of New York’s teams achieved what they wanted this season, but their fans and front offices alike can take some solace in breakthroughs from numerous players who were nowhere near playoff roster consideration in preseason. For the Yankees, one can point to Cam Schlittler, who surged onto the scene from relative obscurity in large part to a velocity surge of 8 mph from his Low-A debut in 2023. It’s a feat so preposterous that I wouldn’t even believe it if it weren’t sourced, and that’s without even considering how he’s kept his command to major league standard throughout. The Mets’ Nolan McLean is a more established talent; he was one of the several highly-rated draftees in recent years to try two-way play in the minors, but a disheartening .565 OPS in 35 Double-A games killed any hopes of making it as the next Ohtani. He’s maintained his reputation as a pure pitcher in the Mets system since, and mid-summer adjustments against lefties dealt with some of his last glaring weaknesses. McLean may have the prospect pedigree, but Schlittler’s playoff heroics have captured people’s hearts. Which one should be expected to be better going forward?

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Cam Schlittler

Schlittler breaks the mold of recent successful Yankee pitching projects by forgoing a sweeper/changeup-centric arsenal on middling velocity for straight gas on fastball variations. Michael King and Will Warren are the ones that immediately come to mind for the typical “Yankee” archetype, with 4-seams simply being the foundation for a host of secondaries to overwhelm the hitter. Schlittler’s 4-seam, by contrast, is the main event. He turns to it more than 55% of the time, and to his three fastball variations more than 80% cumulatively. Luis Gil is perhaps the closest to Schlittler of somewhat recent graduates, but even he relies heavily on a slider with loads of sweep and a changeup. Schlittler is largely uncharted territory for the Yankees’ dev lab.

Pitch Mix

That notorious 4-seamer sits at a blistering 98 mph and tops out at 101, something very few starters can boast. Despite the rest of the pitch’s characteristics being fairly ordinary, the great velocity alone tears hitters up - its chase, whiff, and zone contact (Z-Con) rates surpass the 90th percentile of all pitchers. One thing to note is that it’s a “cut-ride fastball,” thanks to his natural ability to get glove-side movement. This makes pitches like cutters and sliders easier to throw, but most critically for the 4-seam, it creates better chances of swing-and-miss. In general, his goal is to get the pitch upstairs (or anywhere in the zone, frankly) and blow it by everyone, regardless of what hard contact it may bring.

The biggest jumps in average fastball velocity between 2024 and 2025. Schlittler’s 2024 value is the one recorded in Triple-A by Robert Orr’s dashboard. Jordan Hicks was converted back into a primary reliever by the Red Sox, which makes his second-place result far less impressive. Mark Leiter, in third, is a fellow Yankee. [Source: BaseballSavant]

While the 4-seam gets the hype, the cutter, sometimes referred to as a slider, is the real money pitch. Tanner Bibee’s cutter immediately came to mind as a comparison point, and despite similar movement (2 inches of vertical, 8 inches of horizontal), Cam’s is thrown 5 mph harder. Bibee’s cutter returned great results in 2025 despite an uneven season overall, and Schlittler should push the boundaries even further. The Stuff+ mafia on FanGraphs gives it a double-plus grade, and is second in overall rating - only Pete Fairbanks is ahead, and he doesn’t start. If he can parlay the cutter into an even more frequent offering (presently at 21% usage), he can really start to take over games frequently.

He also has a sinker that was only sparingly used in the regular season, but was at its best self in the playoffs. In his Wild Card masterpiece against the Red Sox, it had a season-high 23% usage with an astounding 52% CSW. Unlike most pitchers, Schlittler’s main regular-season arsenal tended to beat opposite-handed hitters, lefties (LHB), while struggling more so against righties (RHB). The sinker filled the void perfectly with 36% usage against Red Sox RHB, more than any other pitch.

Like the fastball, the curveball succeeds based on the velocity. It sits 83.5 mph, with above-average depth and below-average sweep. It struggled to get results, though, across the board. Given his publicly stated plans, which I will cover in a moment, I wonder if he will put much effort into improving the offering into more than an occasional taste-breaker vs lefties.

The Future

There was a very nice article in FanGraphs from mid-September that made writing this article far easier. The first section of the article talks about Schlittler, his journey to the majors, and some insights into his pitch mix. He then mentions his natural supination, or glove-side movement bias, and how it was detrimental in keeping the splitter that he had been developing down in the zone. One common solution for supinators is the “kick change,” a version of changeup or splitter that sacrifices arm-side movement for velocity. While it’s noted that he has yet to try one, I believe that if he arrives at Spring Training with any changeup, a kick change would be most likely. It’s beloved by pitching models for its velocity and unique shape, and is popular for being relatively simple to learn. Sitting 92 mph on it would certainly be on the cards for Schlittler, and that would produce strong results even with limited refinement.

Nolan McLean

While Cam relies on heat, Nolan relies on inhuman spin rates to make the ball move in a way that would even impress the late Shane Warne. As a result, he can confound hitters with a deep arsenal that, despite no clear “A pitch” or overwhelming pace amongst its offerings, can still offer no clear sore spot for hitters to attempt to ambush.

Pitch Mix

McLean’s money pitch is the sinker with its great depth. Its 1.1 inches of induced vertical break is bested by only a few (Houck and Webb are the notable two), and he commands it well arm-side to jam RHB and down in the zone. McLean was always erratic in the minors, but thus far in the bigs, there’s little evidence of that issue with this one. He zoned it far better than the average pitcher, and it got strikes at a similarly great rate. Its otherworldly 86.2% groundball rate won’t stick, but 70% is definitely in the realm of possibility when it’s on song. That’d be unbelievable for a reliever, much less a starter.

He also throws an 85 mph sweeper that moves 17 inches on the x-axis with his elite 3000 RPM on the pitch. It’s gotten knocked around a bit as an isolated pitch on that side of the pitch plot with the weakest command of anything he’s presented, but it returns groundballs over half the time anyway. It’s also notably erratic inside the zone, which gave him called strikes a quarter of the time despite the damage. In the long run, I see it as an out-of-the-zone swing inducer rather than an in-zone strike stealer. Accordingly, I would largely write off the specific outcomes as a product of a limited sample.

The 4-seam is an important bridge pitch for the two, and it arguably should see more screentime than its 15% usage in 2025. It has elite carry, he gets it consistently up in the zone, and the limited sample Z-Con and whiff rate are both elite. I think this is his most underrated offering, and lends credence to long-term sustainability. How many arms have a great 4-seamer as a rarely-used luxury? Not many.

His curveball is another unicorn offering with the highest spin rate of any curveball in the majors at over 3,250 RPM. One could say 2,500 or so is average, and 3,000 is elite, so regularly posting 3,250 means McLean is a whole other standard deviation ahead of the best. The shape benefits greatly from this characteristic - despite average velocity, it drops 4 inches more than average and sweeps more than 10. It’s a 50% whiff rate pitch that gives him a true wipeout option for both sides of the plate, while also limiting contact at an elite level. One should expect its usage rate to be heavily increased next season.

Then there’s his (kick) change and cutter, which both primarily supplement the curve against his weak-side matchup. Both look slightly above average, with perhaps the changeup getting the edge. Either way, both should continue to get a look over 10% of the time against LHB.

Another interesting note is his approach. He’s far more agnostic than other pitchers with pitch selection; against LHB, he throws every pitch over 10% of the time, but none over a quarter. The current details of this plan may cause some issues (the most glaring is that sweepers have nearly won the plurality so far, despite being generally poor in the weak-side matchup), but in the “Year of the Pitch Mix”, McLean has definitely bought into the trend.

Against LHB, it’s all hands on deck for Captain McLean. [Source: PitcherList]

Command

When I’ve heard people discuss McLean’s future outlook, one central theme consistently comes up: his command. Historically, that was the main negative of his skill set, with my own pre-conceived notion about him being an erratic arm primarily focused on overpowering hitters. Of course, that’s not the full story - his ability to keep the ball on the turf is at least an equally valuable asset, and something all of his pitches did incredibly well during his major league stint. Additionally, he materially improved his command late in the year; his zone rate rose from 51% across Triple-A to over 54% in the majors according to Statcast, which places him in the top quartile of all starters in the 2nd half. For example, the aforementioned Cam Schlittler places the ball in the zone only once more every 200 pitches, has an MLB walk rate 2% higher, and yet gets a fraction of the same scrutiny. If anything, Nolan currently zones the ball too much, with extremely high zone rates on his sweeper and changeup compared to the average arm.

Conclusion

There are two different styles here: Cam Schlittler is a flamethrower that relies predominantly on his fastball, while Nolan McLean is content with average velocity in overall outlier shapes while throwing every pitch type under the sun. Schlittler’s appeal is obvious: in a do-or-die game against a quality opponent, he showed he could turn it up to 11 and blow everything by the opposition. But McLean offers flexibility: he can use almost any pitch at any time, and his ability to spin the ball gives him avenues to learn pitches extremely quickly. For example, he learned his kick-changeup by studying Clay Holmes’ version, according to an MLB article highlighting various Mets pitching prospects.

Overall, I think both should be in the top 25 pitchers next season. Schlittler is a bit outside that range with his current skillset, but the addition of any decent changeup should easily propel him into it. McLean is a clear top-25 pitcher so long as he retains any amount of his improvement in command, and I think a repeat of last year’s 48-inning major league stint is worthy of placement well within the top 15.

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Sources

BaseballSavant

FanGraphs

PitcherList

BaseballReference

MLB.com

New York Times/TheAthletic

Analytics in player development has pushed forward the game in many ways, but one of the best for a fan is the rapid ascent of many top collegiate talents to the major leagues every year. Pitchers like Paul Skenes and Chase Burns, and hitters like Wyatt Langford and Nick Kurtz were virtually major-league ready straight out of the draft, and dominated in their brief minor league stints. That makes sense, given they were top talents, but even lower-rated players can ascend quickly with an analytically-refined understanding of what makes professional players tick. The most prominent case this year is Payton Tolle, who, despite not throwing a single professional pitch after being drafted in the second round in 2024, has already pushed his way to the majors, and a playoff roster, while simultaneously reinventing himself to be viable at the top level.

Pitch Mix

Out of college, he was known as a one-pitch pony; his four-seamer was used ¾ of the time in his senior season, and there’s no question it’s deserving of that workload. It makes good use of his 6’6” frame for 7.5 feet of extension, and in conjunction with a relatively low release, he also attains perceived vertical movement that only the best arms in the league can top. That alone would be good enough to be a lefty starter with a little bit of secondary help, even if he sat at his TCU velocity of 92 mph. Sawyer Gipson-Long operates on a similar wavelength, for example. Yet, he managed to push his velocity over 3 mph in only a year, turning it into a monster pitch that can operate effectively on majority usage. Amongst all starters this year, it ranks 5th in FanGraphs Stuff+ at 116, and I would argue it should be as high as 2nd. With this pitch, Tolle has half of his pitch usage already accounted for. The questions come from everything else.

My optimism on Tolle primarily stems from his cutter, which was featured a quarter of the time in his MLB starts despite being added just over a month prior to MLB debut, according to Lance Brozdowski. The location in his debut certainly doesn’t imply that, frequently getting in on right-handed hitters and only slipping down-and-in a few times. While the shape (outside the extension) doesn’t jump out in any significant way, its rapid implementation mid-year speaks to his pitchability and adaptability.

His changeup is a kick-change, a variant that forgoes horizontal movement in favor of increased velocity. It’s popular pitching labs for two reasons - it is strongly favored by Stuff+ models, which labs put large weight into, and is a simple solution to pitchers who struggle to effectively pronate, or get arm-side movement. It’s been the most erratic pitch in his arsenal, and its low usage despite hefty right-handed opposition indicates that he still lacks confidence in it. In the long term, I view it as his second-best pitch and his primary whiff weapon against right-handed hitters.

His slider and curve are strong offerings as well, but see infrequent use against RHB, which he will face almost exclusively long-term. The slider is a gyro shape with a bit of lift, and the curve can get great depth on strong velocity, but neither seems like a big long-term contributor (>10% usage). The models love the curve, for what it’s worth (6th in Stuff+ amongst SP), so perhaps I underrate the value that extra velocity brings.

Tolle consistently posts top 10 Stuff+ metrics on his pitches (ranks are SP with > 20 IP)

Command

I talked earlier about Tolle’s pitchability, which is an “old school” term that can easily be thrown around by people for players they like. For me, it’s about being able to quickly learn and utilize pitches at a high level, with Paul Skenes as the gold standard (by doing so despite already being so dominant). It’s difficult to even tell where Tolle worked on his game with just 9 walks in 42 Double-A/Triple-A innings while developing his cutter, and it gives great confidence in what an offseason of work could add to his repertoire. In the majors, he consistently got his fastball elevated and his cutter inside, and zoned them effectively. A move to the bullpen limited the sample on the other pitches, as he kept himself to fastball variants in his one-inning role, but he surely should regress downward toward his 6-7% BB rate from the minor leagues with more time on the job.

Conclusion

So far, Tolle has struggled, but that’s only to be expected. The 4-seamer and cutter can survive on 70% combined usage, but it requires his secondaries to be on point. One name to look to as a reference is Bryan Woo, who has relied on his 4-seam and sinker 70% of the time all three years of his career. He makes it work, however, with quality secondaries that I first highlighted as a platform for his future growth in 2023. I believe Tolle is a similar case, and it may take an offseason plus some more pro experience to get there. But the future is bright: he can soon boast a five-pitch mix that can get above-average strikeout rates and below-average walk rates from the left side, a rare combination for anyone. While writing this article, Lance Brozdowski proclaimed him as his #1 pitching prospect, above much more proven names like Nolan McLean and Cam Schlittler. I don’t have such a high belief in Tolle myself, but if he can manage to find consistency with his changeup and make either his slider or curve a reliable fourth option in the weak-side platoon, he could soar to top-20 status quickly.

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FanGraphs

PitcherList

BaseballSavant

BaseballReference

MLBPipeline

Last year, I wrote an analysis on the value of arbitration and pre-arbitration extensions, and along the way I discovered my own method of projecting them. One takes “base cases” - the salaries of player(s) that are most similar to the one in question during arbitration and/or free agency, and use that as the projection for those periods of time. As a way for the teams to get some value from the inherent risk of forfeiting team control, $5 million of “true value” is subtracted per year of the deal. Currently, I only use it for hitters (where they make the most sense and are the most popular anyway), and the system is inherently subjective based on what comparisons you want to make with the player in question. Still, I find it to be a strong baseline for what one can expect.

The one change I made since last year is a more defined value for inflation. The luxury tax cap increases about 3% per year, so I take that as the inflation rate. Last year, it was a little too vibes-based. I’d say $2 million per year either way is the margin of error in most cases.

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Notable Extensions In the Past Year

Jackson Merrill - Last year’s projection [‘LYP’]: 10/154.5 - Real extension 10/156

The system isn’t so bad, huh? Regardless, I do think I undercut him a little last year - his FA estimate should have been a little bit higher. Well within the margin of error either way.

Cal Raleigh - LYP: N/A - Real extension 6/106

This certainly looks like a steal now. I didn’t project an extension for him, but the most similar comp from last year was Rutschman, who would have been offered $80 million over 6 years by my math. The comps weren’t particularly great, though, and one could argue Raleigh was more valuable at the time than Rutschman. Top catchers rarely hit the market.

New Players

Jeremy Pena

2 years of arbitration = $25 million (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)

X years of FA = $32 million/yr (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)

6-year extension = 25 + 32*4 - 5*6 = $123 million

8-year extension = 25 + 32*6 - 5*8 = $177 million

Pena likely will regress both offensively and defensively, but capable shortstops on both sides of the ball are considered valuable to teams. I project him an FA deal with the AAV of Swanson or Turner with inflation considered.

Pete Crow-Armstrong

1 year of minimum = $1 million

4 years of arbitration = $70 million (Kyle Tucker, Aaron Judge as base)

X years of FA = $50 million/yr (Aaron Judge as base)

8-year extension = 1 + 70 + 50*3 - 5*8 = $181 million

10-year extension = 1 + 70 + 50*5 - 5*10 = $271 million

This may seem a little high to some, but PCA has looked the part of an 80-grade fielder with elite pulled flyball rates to supplement his power. Additionally, he will be Super-2 eligible for 2027, giving him a fourth arbitration year. His swing decisions are poor, he is platoon-heavy (for now), and is far more prone to injury with so much value derived from his legs. And yet, he paces for 25 FRV, 9 BsR, 40 HR, 40 SB, and 9 fWAR halfway through his age-23 season. How many can say that? The Cubs offered him a $75 million extension a few months ago, by the way. I think he may get that much in just his four arbitration years.

Roman Anthony

3 years of minimum = $3 million

3 years of arbitration = $35 million (Kyle Tucker, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)

X years of FA = $40 million/yr (Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)

8-year extension = 3 + 35 + 40*2 - 5*8 = $78 million

10-year extension = 3 + 35 + 40*4 - 5*10 = $148 million

This definitely feels low; the system doesn’t seem to work well with very young players where comparisons are hard to find. Then again, he was (allegedly) manipulated to avoid Super-2 designation, costing him an additional $25-30 million in his fourth arbitration year according to these projections. Jackson Chourio was guaranteed $78 million in his first 8 years and $128 million if the team picked up his 2 club options, which puts Anthony’s extension here in similar territory. My suspicion is that Anthony would require $100 million in the first 8 if he were to pull the trigger, far more than Campbell’s $60 million. From the Red Sox’s POV, there’s no reason to agree to such a high valuation until he proves he deserves it over a large sample. There’s some pull and flyball concerns in there still.

James Wood

2 years of minimum = $2 million

3 years of arbitration = $45 million (Kyle Tucker, Aaron Judge as base)

X years of FA = $50 million/yr (Aaron Judge as base)

8-year extension = 2 + 45 + 50*3 - 5*8 = $157 million

10-year extension = 2 + 45 + 50*5 - 5*10 = $247 million

I think James Wood is the truth (no offense to Paul Pierce). It’s paramount that the Nationals try to get him locked up now or they will be forced to let him out the door in a couple years’ time when the price becomes astronomical. Don't let Keibert Ruiz deter you! Pulling the ball is overrated anyway. (Please don't scroll one player up.)

Adjusted Players

Here’s an assortment of players I covered last year that deserve an update.

CJ Abrams (LYP: 10/185, 12/235)

3 years of arbitration = $30 million (Trea Turner as base)

X years of FA = $36 million/yr (Trea Turner as base)

8-year extension = 30 + 36*5 - 5*8 = $170 million

10-year extension = 30 + 36*7 - 5*10 = $232 million

Lots of Trea Turner vibes here, hence the comp.Offense-first shortstop with average defense at best. K rates down, EVs up.

Riley Greene (LYP: 10/185)

3 years of arbitration = $32 million (Brandon Nimmo, George Springer, Kyle Tucker as base)

X years of FA = $37.5 million/yr (Brandon Nimmo, George Springer, Aaron Judge, Corey Seager as base)

8-year extension = 32 + 37.5*5 - 5*8 = $179.5 million

10-year extension = 32 + 37.5*7 - 5*10 = $244.5 million

This seems a bit aggressive, but Greene looks like he’s really found his stride. His steep swing path (VBA) creates lots of damage, and he plays a serviceable center field. This year’s improvement in damage comes with a more proactive approach, lending credence to its sustainability.

Elly de la Cruz (LYP: 10/221, 12/291)

1 year of minimum = 1 million

3 years of arbitration - $47 million (Nolan Arenado as base)

X years of FA - $45 million/yr (Nolan Arenado as base)

10-year extension = 1 + 47 + 45*6 - 5*10 = $268 million

12-year extension = 1 + 47 + 45*8 - 5*12 = $348 million

Athletic’s preseason 12-year prediction: $330 million

Elly has cemented himself as a top-10 player in the league for me this year, posting a near 6 fWAR pace despite hefty defensive regression. One could argue he should be at the coveted $50 million per year mark in FA, which would make the figures even more astronomical. Also, I’m not sure why I predicted Super 2 eligibility last year. He appears to be well short.

Jasson Dominguez

1 year of minimum = $1 million

4 years of arbitration = $45 million (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)

X years of FA = $30 million/yr (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)

8-year extension = 1 + 45 + 30*3 - 5*8 = $96 million

10-year extension = 1 + 45 + 30*5 - 5*10 = $146 million

Another tough one. Dominguez will likely be Super-2 eligible (Abrams wasn’t at the same service time, for what it’s worth) and has demonstrated heavy platoon splits thus far. I could see a large upward adjustment next season if he presents serviceable numbers vs LHP. If not Super 2 eligible, subtract $15-20 million.

Anthony Volpe (LYP: 10/156)

3 years of arbitration = $25 million (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)

X years of FA = $27.5 million/yr (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)

8-year extension = 25 + 27.5*5 - 5*8 = $122.5 million

10-year extension = 25 + 27.5*7 - 5*10 = $167.5 million

There’s some serious offensive concerns with Volpe, who has now been below average three years in a row. That said, Swanson was also a late bloomer (first above average year at 26) and still managed to score $27 million per year with average hitting and elite shortstop defense. If you’re going to extend Volpe, you’re at least buying into some offensive improvement.

Gunnar Henderson (LYP: 10/276, 12/356)

3 years of arbitration = $50 million (Juan Soto as base)

X years of FA = $45 million/yr (Aaron Judge, Juan Soto as base)

10-year extension = 50 + 45*7 - 5*10 = $320 million

12-year extension = 50 + 45*9 - 5*12 = $400 million

This one was the hardest of all of them. How much do I weigh this year, where he has struggled to square the ball up and keep the chase rate down after injury, in relation to the prior two? In the end, I kept the projections the same - the difference between LYP and this one is simply replacing a year of the minimum with an FA year. Soto may not be the best base case, but reflects the crazy young age his talent will be hitting FA.

Conclusion

Hopefully I was a little more objective this year with my predictions. I might include pitchers next year - they’re so infrequent, though, that it may not be worth the bother.

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Sources

Spotrac

The Athletic

BaseballReference

iStock for image

This was the 12th iteration of the “franchise draft,” where 30 teams get to build their own organization like one would in a dynasty fantasy baseball league. The key differences are that players are evaluated based on real life performance, so defense is a critical factor, and players are bound to your team forever, so no contract considerations. No trading stars for Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks in this house!

I ended up with the 6th pick, and the priority was position players early, given my general strength is pitching evaluation and the innate volatility of arms. In the first three rounds, I hoped to come away with a SS, CF, and either a top prospect or C. At pick 6, getting a SS or capable CF was virtually guaranteed; only the inexplicable fall of Soto or Ohtani would prevent that. After that, it's heavy platooning for the offense, getting reliable arms for the staff, and a keen eye to prospects that I feel are falling too far. Given how long ago this was done (early Feb), I can add some additional commentary on how the picks look as of June. When looking through this, it's funny how quickly things can change in a few months.

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The “X.XX” format in the picks’ information line indicates first the round, then the overall pick for each player. For instance, round 1 pick 6 is:

1.06 - Shohei Ohtani - 30 - Los Angeles Dodgers - DH/SP

I had anticipated a tough choice between Elly de la Cruz and Jackson Merrill here to fill a spot up the middle, but Ohtani fell to me after an aggressive selection of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the pick prior. Since payroll flexibility is irrelevant with contracts ignored, Ohtani is an easy selection with elite offensive skills and flashes of Cy Young level stuff. I’m almost certain the Dodgers will tinker with Ohtani’s arsenal in his first year back on the mound; as in the top 50 blurb about Shohei, I see more sinkers on the horizon to reduce the load on his 4-seam. De la Cruz ended up going a few picks later, while Merrill dropped all the way to 17th. De la Cruz was my preferred option with quality major-league shortstops in short (heh) supply compared to center fielders, but Merrill is about as safe as someone his age can get.

2.55 - Patrick Bailey - 25 - San Francisco Giants - C

With few elite catchers around, I turned to my top preference in Patrick Bailey in round 2. His defensive acumen is well-known, with clear first placements in both DRS and FRV across 2024, but the bat was given too harsh a grading at an 81 wRC+. His xWOBAs came in around .320 when considering pull rate (or not), his 90th percentile and average EVs were at or above the 70th percentile, and his plate discipline was passable. Despite such a noodle bat, he was 12th in prorated fWAR amongst all players at 6.25 fWAR/650 PA. He has struggled more than ever on that end so far this season, but if he can get back to being simply below-average hit, he will be a real stalwart player.

3.66 - Kristian Campbell - 22 - Boston Red Sox - 2B/OF

This was a difficult decision with multiple capable outfield options. There was the stable choice of Brenton Doyle, the more aggressive choice of Jasson Dominguez, and the ultra aggressive choice of Evan Carter, but I elected to get flexible with the high-upside Campbell. He’s struggled since his great April after pitchers honed in on his weaknesses on the outer third and with soft stuff, but he surely will adjust back in kind to return to being a stable all-around hitter. There are bits of Mookie Betts here, especially if he can tap into the pull side.

4.115 - Marcelo Mayer - 22 - Boston Red Sox - SS

I certainly did not plan on picking Mayer, but the unexpected availability of Ohtani set me back on handling short. Mayer and Lawlar were the two prime candidates, and I liked Mayer slightly more with the better defensive track record. My aggregated prospect rankings had them tied, so I couldn’t really go wrong either way. I also considered Pete Crow-Armstrong here to fill my CF vacancy, but I had something in mind there for later. How brilliant that would have been.

5.126 - Chase Burns - 22 - Cincinnati Reds - SP

The direction of the draft became clear at this point, with far more pitchers selected per round than I had seen in the prior editions. That made my choice difficult: do I go for a hitter, which were better stocked than usual at this point, or a pitcher, which was far worse stocked. I opted for the latter, and I begrudgingly skipped over the quickly falling Bryan “Woocifer” Woo to select Chase Burns. He had better swing-and-miss numbers in college than Paul Skenes with an incredible 4-seam/slider/curve combination that is simply electric. The latter two offerings ran whiff rates above 60% in his last year at Wake Forest, and he struggles to find room for a 90 mph changeup and 88 mph cutter that most pitchers would kill to possess. He is arguably the best-performing SP prospect so far in 2025 with unexpectedly sharp command, and he’s already good enough to pitch in Cincinnati every five days. Whenever he does appear, it’ll be fireworks.

6.175 - Reese Olson - 25 - Detroit Tigers - SP

With starters continuing to fly off the shelves, I take my first full-time major-league starter in Reese Olson. I covered him in SPs to Watch, but his sinker/slider/changeup mix is high caliber. It’s hard to find someone who can frequently keep the ball on the ground (93rd percentile) while eliciting swing-and-miss (72nd percentile), but Olson manages to do both. Success stories like Skubal and Flaherty gave me faith that the Tigers will tweak the mix in the proper manner to get the most out of him, and their decrease in his weak 4-seam’s usage by 10% in 2025 supports that belief so far.

7.186 - Spencer Arrighetti - 25 - Houston Astros - SP

After fierce deliberation between the above, Bobby Miller, David Festa, Kutter Crawford, and Sean Burke, I chose the Astro. He consistently posts 7 feet of extension to effectively add 1.5 ticks to everything he throws, and his low release gives him elite approach angles on his fastball and cutter. His curve has huge sweep at a respectable 78 mph to get lots of whiffs. His sweeper and changeup carry low usage, and his latter is the pitch to watch; I think it can be tweaked for more run to differentiate it more from the heater. Currently, it’s just 3 inches, which makes it only a mediocre offering for its 8% usage. He’s struggled to keep things in line for his first 9 ⅓ innings before getting injured, but he remains nasty when he gets things right.

8.235 - Trevor Larnach - 28 - Minnesota Twins - OF

I needed a quality bat in the middle of the lineup, and after Matt Wallner’s selection, I pulled the trigger on Trevor Larnach. He’s a platoon hitter, but that’s part of my overarching strategy with the later selections. Larnach posted a 124 wRC+ last season against right handers in 2024 and demonstrated a more consistent approach with a 12% drop in K rate to an average 22%. The cost wasn’t felt in his swing decisions, with his SEAGER remaining top tier, or his exit velocities, which actually went up 2 mph. He was more prone to a rollover, but his VBA remained at a great 38°, which suggests lots of flyballs ahead. I see a middle of the order hitter against RHP for the foreseeable future in the profile at a 130-140 wRC+, which is more than good enough to justify his questionable defense in left or his nonexistent baserunning threat.

9.246 - Josue de Paula - 19 - Los Angeles Dodgers - OF

I was very surprised that de Paula stuck around this long, but I was certainly pleased about it. He was the consensus 27th-best prospect based on my aggregation and is in an organization that can coax value out of hitters better than almost any other. He walked once per game and more often than he struck out at High-A Great Lakes, and projects as a real power threat with his 6’3” frame and having already nearly matched his 2024 home run total in half the amount of games in 2025. He is quick enough to be a solid corner outfielder and an average baserunner, which is far more than most people his size could hope for. I also considered teammate Zyhir Hope here.

10.295 - Jacob Young - 25 - Washington Nationals - OF

The Floridian finished tied for 1st in OF defensive value last season according to FRV, and tied for 2nd in FRV behind franchise backstop Patrick Bailey. A coincidence, I’m sure. He is a dynamic baserunner as well, finishing 2024 with 5.5 BsR/650 PA despite only average on base skills. He’s not ever going to be an elite hitter, but a .650 OPS is more than enough to be a defensive specialist batting 9th on the daily.

11.306 - Drew Burress - 20 - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - OF

Burress looks primed to be a top-3 pick in 2026 when first eligible. He had a monster freshman year that was supported by advanced metrics in full, although the quality of opposition could be called into question as an ACC representative. Nonetheless, he had the highest wRC+ of any ACC bat in 2024, ahead of first round draftees Nick Kurtz, James Tibbs, and Cam Smith, all his senior, and followed it up with a great sophomore year as well. He even had a four-homer game in his 8th ever collegiate game. That shows initiative.

Drew Burress had almost no weaknesses in his freshman ACC season. The low in-zone swing rate is justified by his walk per game. [TimStats]

12.355 - Kutter Crawford - 29 - Boston Red Sox - SP

I wrote an entire article about Kutter in my “SPs to Watch” series, but long story short, he’s the perfect fit for the Red Sox’s organizational crusade against 4-seamers. His kutter/sweeper/splitter combination is effective, and the triumvirate’s success has concealed the scale of the atrocious results of the 4-seam. I believe even a slight decrease in heater usage would do wonders for his overall results, and once he finally returns to injury, we might be able to put that theory to the test.

13.366 - Will Warren - 25 - New York Yankees - SP

I was hoping to wait quite a bit longer for Warren, but after my timeline was filled with posts about his great arsenal, I had to jump the queue. Again, a subject of one of my articles, Warren has an elite sweeper that is surrounded by pitches that move a crazy amount, but aren’t particularly complimentary of one another. His ICR is an absurd 48%, and he walks over 10% of the batters he faces. He still manages a lot of groundballs with his great sinker/sweeper combo and can post lots of strikeouts, so the potential is there if he can tap into his changeup and curve a little further to expand the palette.

14.415 - Lazaro Montes - 20 - Seattle Mariners - OF

I didn’t plan on grabbing Montes, but he was the last prospect inside the consensus top-70 left, and he was well within the top 50. He has drawn comparisons to Yordan Alvarez - like de Paula - with a similarly large frame to tap into easy power and great swing decisions in the lower minors. There’s questions about where he will play in the field, but the bat has looked incredibly sound at every level he's encountered. If he can hit 30 HRs with a .370 OBP, he can be Kyle Schwarber in the field if he likes. It won’t matter.

15.426 - Michael Massey - 27 - Kansas City Royals - 2B

Massey fills second base so Kristian Campbell can man left, and he was one of my favorite players entering 2025. While he has struggled to get the ball off the bat at a productive launch angle two months in, I see a left-handed Isaac Paredes with his elite contact rate and preference for pulled flyballs. Despite a mediocre .310 Savant xWOBA in 2024, his pull-adjusted xWOBA was a great .353 without a platoon situation concealing a weakness to southpaws. His defense is only ok at second base, and he won’t be stealing any bases, but he can hit 30 HR in a full-time starter’s share of playing time once he gets his swing straightened out. At a position possibly weaker than any other, that skillset is worth its weight in gold.

16.475 - Joe Boyle - 25 - Tampa Bay Rays - SP

Joe is known for sitting 98, and after seeing him sit 99.8 mph across 2 innings in a Spring Training game, I knew he may not have lasted the next 10 picks to get back to me. His slider has good drop considering its 89 mph, and he threw a single changeup (sometimes classified as a splitter) in those 36 pitches with 0 vert and 16 inches of run at 93 mph. That fastball/slider/changeup mix is monstrous and with the Rays’ track record of fixing command, Boyle feels like a great buy. Think Misiorowski without the crazy fastball properties or extension. If not for Doyle, I would’ve picked Sawyer Gipson-Long here with his 7 feet of extension and polished mix..

17.486 - Ben Rice - 26 - New York Yankees - 1B

It’s all about the Benjamins. Ben Rice filled an important need late in the draft here - a strong-side platoon first baseman - and the upside was clear. He pulls flyballs with authority, showcases great discipline, and can even flex to behind the plate with his collegiate catching experience. So far this year, he’s demonstrated that in spades against both sides of the platoon, although I’m still worried about how long he can get away with such poor numbers against breakers. Against heaters, though, he’s the man.

18.535 - Sawyer Gipson-Long - 27 - Detroit Tigers - SP

Like Will Warren, I had to jump the queue after top pitching analysts endorsed his skillset. It gets worse, though, given it was Nick Pollack, perhaps the best public pitching analyst (certainly my most referenced, at least), and that he proclaimed him his sleeper pick of the year! Oh brother. Sawyer’s big calling card is his 7.5 feet of extension that is only matched by fellow freaks like Tyler Glasnow. His otherwise mediocre velocity plays up from that outlier release and enables his already unique pitches to reach their max potential. The slider, changeup, and sinker completely drop off the table, which when paired with elite carry on his 4-seam makes a nightmare mix to handle. He is only returning now, but he has demonstrated a retention of most of his unicorn skills throughout his many efficient minor league rehab starts.

19.546 - Alan Roden - 25 - Toronto Blue Jays - 3B

The battle for the starting job at third base was between three players: Payton Eeles, Shay Whitcomb, and Alan Roden. Whitcomb seemed a little too swing-happy and Eeles demonstrated a worse process outside of pitch selection with a similar style, so the Creighton graduate it is. Roden is a contact-heavy bat with the potential to hit 15 HRs while not making a fool of himself chasing out of the zone. He also has the flexibility to move left field, which could prove useful. He struggled to square up the ball on debut and was demoted quickly, but returned to crushing it in AAA in the meantime. I think he will do better during his second crack at things.

20.595 - Seth Halvorsen - 25 - Colorado Rockies - RP

I had been looking at Halvorsen for several rounds to this point, and despite many relievers being picked, he was not among them. The most exciting thing about his arsenal is his sinker: flat at 100 mph with 7 feet of extension. He could pitch in a little league park; that’ll play. He also has a 90 mph splitter with a good amount of run, a 4-seam that’s also triple digits, and an 89 mph slider with good depth. I think he could be the next elite reliever pickpocketed from the Rockies a la Nick Mears if they can’t unlock things at Coors. He’s absurd.

21.606 - Grant Taylor - 22 - Chicago White Sox - SP

Grant Taylor was a surprise to me when I saw him in Spring Training. I had never heard of him before, but he looked like an absolute menace. Absolute gas on every offering, well over 7 feet of extension, and a natural supinator to create nasty cut on his 4-seam and changeup (with great separation between the two as well). His curve could be classified as a 12/6 with 4 inches of sweep at 85 mph, and his cutter is 93 with low vert. I think he’s most comparable to Glasnow with the heat, extension, and lack of horizontal separation between the arsenal - less than 16 inches across 5 pitches. His one flaw is his erratic command, something Glasnow himself battled for several years. This could be a real prized pitcher as soon as 2026 with a touch more consistency.

During Spring Training, Taylor dominated with a crazy hard cut-fastball. [TJStats]

22.655 - Billy Carlson - 18 - Corona High School - SS

Now is the part of the draft where I start picking well-regarded players at the top of mock drafts. Billy Carlson was a top two high-school prospect at the time we were drafting, and shows (according to JustBaseball) elite instincts at shortstop with a frame that could grow into above-average hit and power. He’s also very selective in the zone.

23.666 - Aiva Arquette - 21 - Oregon State Beavers - SS

A top draft prospect in this upcoming draft, Arquette shows great physical tools while playing a competent shortstop. Some believe he will move to 3B at the pro level with his size (6’5”!!), and his great power would make him a natural fit there, but sources like Pipeline think he could stick at shortstop with his strong arm, “easy actions, [and] soft hands”. Arquette is another likely top-5 draft prospect, top-10 at worst.

24.715 - Justin Lebron - 20 - Alabama Crimson Tide - SS

Lebron wasn’t even born when LeBron debuted, confusing everybody. Evaluators believe he can stick at shortstop, while bringing the boom with the bat as if he was a third baseman. He seems like the 1.1 frontrunner in 2026 with some decline in Burress’ play this season.

25.726 - Andres Chaparro - 25 - Washington Nationals - 1B

I was interested in Chaparro in my Twins GM sim, and because I didn’t manage to get him there, I focused on trying to get him here. He demonstrated elite swing decisions (100th% in AAA, 85th% in MLB) and pulled flyball rates (98th% and 92nd%, respectively) in 2024, and can platoon vs LHP effectively at a minimum. His major hole is against breaking balls, and he lacks the strong EVs to be an above average major-league 1B at the moment.

26.775 - Luis Matos - 23 - San Francisco Giants - OF

I was hunting for a platoon outfielder, and Matos is a post-hype option there. He has top-of-the-line contact skills and solid pull and flyball rates. He lacks great power or swing decisions, and he’s struggled to perform in the majors. Regardless, he’s still young and is on the brink of everyday viability.

27.786 - Owen Murphy - 21 - Atlanta Braves - SP

ProspectLarceny, my north star, had him 5th in their MiLB pitcher rankings at the end of 2024. He has a fastball with incredible IVB, and a quality slider and curve as well (source). He was dominating High-A at age 20 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, so I got to get him cheap here.

28.835 - Connor Prielipp - 24 - Minnesota Twins - SP

I was looking for more pitchers with upside, and Prielipp with his elite K-BB% in limited time and quality three-pitch mix won out. Pipeline regards both his changeup and slider as + pitches, and JustBaseball calls the slightly-sweeping slide piece a 65. With quality velocity and solid command on all three offerings, he’s a safe bet to be an MLB starter for several years.

29.846 - Patrick Forbes - 20 - Louisville Cardinals - SP

I considered several collegiate SP here, but I elected to take Forbes. His calling card is an extremely flat 4-seam at 96 with so much run that it’s sometimes classified as a sinker, a sweepy slider at 82 and a cutter which could be classified as a slider with its moderate sweep, low vert shape at 88. It’s anyone’s guess what he would call those pitches, but there’s a clear foundation here.

Patrick Forbes at his best early in the year. [TJStats]

30.895 - Romy Gonzalez - 28 - Boston Red Sox - 1B

I didn’t know who to pick here so I grabbed a guy who can play all over against LHP. Given my platoon-heavy intent, I wanted someone to fill that role off the bench.

Final Roster

I’m content with how my roster turned out, even several months later. I did pretty well platooning, although I skipped my original LF platoon plan (Randal Grichuk) to continue my draft prospect binge. My one regret is probably picking Patrick Bailey; he probably would have lasted quite a while longer and there were plenty of minor league options close to the majors available long after. My original plan was to platoon Rice and Chaparro at 1B, but Rice’s great play allows him to be full-time on the roster while Chaparro splits time with Roden at third. Chaparro actually has way more time at the hot corner in the minors than at first, including over 70 games played there last year.

I really like the pitching staff I put together. I only picked one reliever (two if you count Boyle) because picking relievers isn’t very interesting, and most go undrafted. I certainly would have picked Sheehan (round 24) and Roupp (round 28) in a vacuum after falling way too far, but after grabbing them with the Twins, I thought it would be more interesting to go after different players. The one issue with the staff that I’m just noticing is the lack of LHP. Oh well.

The full draft is accessible here. Hope you enjoyed!

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Sources

FanGraphs

BaseballSavant

BaseballReference

PitcherList

Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard

Realestmuto Dashboard

TJStats

Specificially for Prospect Evaluation (I can't do it myself):

JustBaseball

BaseballProspectus

MLBPipeline

The Athletic (Keith Law)

MLBDraftInsider

ProspectLarceny

ScouttheStatline

Azad Earl

TimStats

My last article featured a format that I enjoyed, so I decided to write one about pitchers that will debut in the coming weeks — three for the first time, and one for the first time in 1.5 years. I had to sneak Eury Perez in there, sorry. I also stuck to pitchers with a good amount of publicly available data, so no Chase Burns or Jonah Tong, unfortunately. Let's see how they get on.

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Bubba Chandler

The Pirates' top prospect offers a true four-pitch mix built with nearly unparalleled velocity. I expect him to be an above-average starter immediately upon arrival to MLB and exceed his teammate Jared Jones’ debut season in turn. The extra pedigree is reflected in a deeper mix than Jones, despite perhaps having even less accuracy on the individual offerings.

His best pitch is his changeup. It averages 92 mph, maxes out at 94.9 mph (that's harder than the average MLB fastball), and creates 10+ inches of separation on both axes despite just a 6 mph differential in velocity with the 4-seam. The shape is most akin to Lucas Erceg and Robert Suarez, but each of their offspeeds is still 2 mph slower than Chandler's. Their changeups are elite at contact mitigation with 75th percentile whiff rates, so expect that at a minimum from BC. Such results would already qualify it as a ++ offering in my mind.

The four-seam fastball has elite induced vertical break (IVB) with a great approach angle (VAA), a good amount of cut to distance itself from his changeup, and sits at a sizzling 98 mph. He zones it only 38% of the time, yet has achieved an 18% swinging strike rate, 34% chase rate, and 35% CSW on it in Triple-A. Additionally, its zone-contact rate (Z-Con) of 70% should give him some more wiggle room to be aggressive with it in the future. It is prone to get hit around, but I believe that will improve in time. Given its makeup, I think it's an elite option in any count.

The slider gets its own speed range at 88.5 ticks and has enough sweep (3 in.) not to be a true “gyro” slider, but it's not far off. It’s reminiscent of Jared Jones’s slider in that regard (or Matthew Boyd’s from the opposite side) and creates a narrow 4-seam and slider tunnel that is conducive to whiffs while utilizing his great changeup to avoid as much of the typical punishment with it. The chase rate is a strong 37%, but the Z-Con lags at 82%, a mark that feels too high for a pitch of this quality. Regardless, it's his third pitch to feature a swinging strike rate greater than 15% for him this season, a difficult feat.

Lastly, he features a 12/6 curve at 84 mph. It has a 30% called strike rate, and the elite velocity makes it difficult to square up even if one wanted to contest the free real estate. Paired with his fastball and changeup, Chandler offers LHB a truly arduous day at the office.

The one thing possibly keeping Chandler down (other than financial considerations) is his command. As alluded to earlier, there are some real command issues here. Matt Collier believes it could be as bad as the bottom 2.5% of the league if debuting tomorrow, and his zone rate is under 50%. That is OK, of course, if he can get an adequate amount of chases. His strike rates this year have remained reasonable, but then again, he is plainly a level above everyone else in Triple-A right now.

Bubba Chandler is so unique it’s difficult to compare him to anyone. I see a lot of Jared Jones here with the 4-seam slider combo, but his extra offerings and velocity put him in a tier above. The crazy hard 4-seam/slider combo with a great approach angle gives some flashbacks to one Jacob deGrom, but I’m not sure he has the finesse to let me pull that one off. There's just no apt comparison, frankly.

Andrew Painter

Andrew Painter has been a top-tier pitching prospect for years, first catching my eye after his age-19 season in 2022 with a 1.56 ERA and 32.5 K-BB%. After Tommy John, he's looked like his old self with his upper-90s heat and high strike rates with all pitches.

His 4-seam is an easy 97 with his 6’7” frame, but it lacks the underlying metrics to stand as a truly great pitch. Despite his imposing stature, he has below-average extension at just over 6 feet, and his great IVB metric is aided by his high arm slot, creating a mediocre at best VAA of -5.1°. Chandler's, for reference, is -4.1°, where values closer to 0 are better. One benefit is its great cut - just 5.5 inches - to ensure extra whiffs, but the pitch will simply be good at the top of the zone overall. In contrast, his cutter has a truly outlier shape. Only Jameson Taillon throws one anything like it (grading out as well above average) amongst present MLB starters, and Painter throws his 4 mph harder with 2 more inches of carry. If the 4-seam doesn't translate well with its dead zone tendencies, the cutter can take over.

The slider is a soft 84 or so, and it certainly brings a change of pace. The low velocity allows for great movement in both directions, and it’s even been sweeper-esque in some games with double-digit horizontal movement. Some prospect outlets grade the pitch as elite, and it reminds me of Spencer Strider’s slide piece overall. In his limited rehab sample, it hasn't been back to its best shape yet with high Z-Con and low chase.

He also throws a curve and changeup, but it’s done so sparingly that it’s difficult to find concrete data on them. The changeup appears to be 90 mph with high vert and low run, typical of someone with the supinating tendencies that Painter demonstrates; it’s reminiscent of guys like Gore and Ragans of recent times. The curve is high 70s to low 80s according to JustBaseball, and is similar enough to the slider that my various references seem to disagree on where one starts and the other ends. The curve for Painter generally features more run and depth, which possibly makes the occasional “sweeper” mentioned earlier actually a misidentified curve. Either way, he has a stockpile of pitches to pound the zone with.

I've alluded to Painter's command throughout this segment, and it's the critical piece of his puzzle. He consistently posts 65+% strike rates in the minors, and he’s able to avoid damage despite the aggressive approach. In that 2022 season, he allowed just 5 HR despite pounding the zone frequently enough to earn that 6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. My one concern would be if the 4-seam is strong enough to stick the landing of an ace, although it's difficult to fully understand what he's doing with the pitch classification squabbles. I see some George Kirby here with the great authority he has over his deep mix, although I believe Painter's cutter is better than any offering Kirby possesses.

Jacob Misiorowski

Unquestionably the riskiest proposition here, Misiorowski invokes memories of the most dominant pitchers of the league. His imposing 6’7” frame allows for easy velocity and extension, and with a modestly improved appreciation for the strike zone, he looks like an absolute monster - so long as he can stay on the field.

I usually start with the 4-seam, and this one is straight out of a fever dream. It sits at 98 mph like an elite reliever, is as flat as those thrown by VAA king Bryan Woo, and is delivered with the extension of Tyler Glasnow, nearly 7.5 feet away from his body. It’d immediately be a top fastball in the league and can dismantle AAA lineups completely on its own. It is tarnished a little by its 11 inches of run, which makes it less conducive to whiffs, but that’s small potatoes overall.

His second most-used pitch is the slider, which clocks in at a blistering 93.5 mph. The shape is reminiscent of Robbie Ray’s or AJ Smith-Shawver’s sliders with gyro spin, imparting tons of vert and no run, which makes it effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. deGrom was famous for his hard slider, but even he only topped out at 92.5 across a calendar year.

His last typical offering is his curveball, with a ridiculous 11 inches of depth and 6 inches of horizontal break at 86.5 mph. I could find 4 curves thrown with a good amount of regularity at the major league level above 86 mph, and none surpassed 7 inches of depth or 3.5 inches of sweep. It's a completely unicorn pitch that will be impossible to barrel up, especially with the 4-seam and slider in the forefront of the hitter's mind.

He also wields a 91.5 mph changeup, and while sparsely used, it’s still impressive. It has 17 inches of run, and while it separates far less with the 4-seam than Chandler at a similar velocity, it's had outlandish chase rates so far. In recent starts, he's turned to it more in preparation for his upcoming MLB debut. I suspect it'll be used scarcely in the bigs as a third-time-through-the-order weapon or when the other options aren't working quite right.

I think a long-term vision of Misiorowski may be largely fastball/slider, like the man who he reminds me most of - Jacob deGrom. Overpowering heaters at the top of the zone with a devastating slider over 90 mph is peak Jake, although he lacks the same pinpoint accuracy that created several Cy Young awards. Despite improving his strike rate to 65% overall and walking 2 or less in all but one of his starts since mid-April, the zone rate has only improved to a paltry 52%, despite full knowledge that he can blow his stuff past anyone in the International League. Keith Law, amongst others, deems him more of a reliever long-term as a result. Regardless, I'd try handing him the keys over Quinn Priester or DL Hall to see what happens. It'll be entertaining either way: pure cinema, or a car crash.

Eury Perez

Eury is the one Major Leaguer featured in this article, but he’s a special case with his arrival to the majors being just past his 20th birthday. For instance, Misiorowski wasn’t even drafted by that age. Despite his expedited path to the majors, he immediately proved he belonged by flashing three different pitches with a 45% whiff rate or higher, a truly rare accomplishment. Blake Snell managed it in 2019 and 2023, but his style is much more dogmatic, and frankly, refined than Eury’s by either of those points. Snell was 26 in 2019, and Perez just turned 22!

Perez’s golden offering is his slider, which is a gyro variant with more induced vertical break than any other I could find since 2023 with a reasonable sample (6.1 inches according to Alex Chamberlain’s leaderboard). It is particularly effective vs. LHB, with a 55% whiff rate in 18% usage with a pitiful 21% ICR. Against RHB, it ran a 45% whiff rate across 44% usage, which may be even more impressive. Eury's ticket to the top is predicated on this offering holding up.

His fastball is perhaps his weakest pitch, in part because of his focus on the lower third of the zone with it. It carries strong vertical break with 6 ¾ feet of extension, but his high arm angle makes it simply above-average in approach angle. Despite the focus on attacking below the belt, it manages to produce virtually no ground balls while still getting killed in the air. It generated a decent amount of swings and misses with its 97.5 mph velocity, but it feels a little underwhelming overall.

Eury’s great fastball carry makes a truly unique shape for hitters to deal with [Max Bay’s Dead Zone App]

The next piece of artillery is the curve, which is the most devastating of his three offspeed offerings. A 56% whiff rate against LHB is comical given its .282 xwOBAcon, insinuating that even if they manage to put it in play, it won't be on a grade-A swing. Its chase rate is only average, but he also frequently misses with it out of harm’s way in the other batter’s box. Against RHB, it’s great as well with its low amount of sweep (4 inches). A whiff rate of 51% against that group is outstanding, and a swinging strike rate of 25% is crazy considering it is in the zone only a third of the time. It doesn’t get the same usage as the slider (18% vs. LHB and 8% vs RHB), but the pitch can dominate MLB hitters at 25% usage when it’s in the right mood.

If anyone knows me, they know I love a good changeup. Luckily, Perez has one; 90 mph with nearly 10 inches of vert and a whiff rate of over 52% against LHB. He seems to gameplan it like Snell - out of the zone to avoid damage at any cost - and it suffers because of it. The approach is so dogmatic that it's to a fault in its performance. It’s almost certainly a command issue; there’s no way it would get knocked around if it by chance landed in the zone, and it costs him a lot of balls early in counts. Regardless, it ties its target demographic into knots, and that’s what we care about.

Funnily enough, the right-handed Perez seems to have built a repertoire to slaughter LHB (~55% whiff rate against LHB with his three secondaries) while lacking a true killer pitch to get righties. The slider is nasty enough to do the job, but the 4-seam gets killed trying to bear 40% of the remaining load. In rehab starts, he’s experimented with a sinker to jam them inside and looks sharp aside from a slight loss of extension. Assuming he stays on track, Perez should be completely overbearing on the mound once again.

Conclusion

1. Eury Perez - The shapes on the secondaries don't scream “unhittable” to me, but the results speak for themselves. Paired with an approach that led to borderline elite walk rates while surpassing a 16% swinging strike rate in all but two games across a 10-week stretch, Perez could push himself to top 10 SP status within the next year and a half.

2. Bubba Chandler - The changeup is otherworldly and the entire mix just makes sense to me. As soon as he can consistently poll below a 10% walk rate, he should be a dominant force.

3. Andrew Painter - I prefer the ceiling of Perez and Chandler to Painter, and for what it’s worth, his floor is by far the highest of anyone here. Perhaps I can’t appreciate the boring, stable option enough.

4. Jacob Misiorowski - Every part of me wants to put him higher. Misiorowski looks as dominant as ever: he can turn it up to 102 at will, and it feels as close to an elite reliever throwing 90 pitches as one can get. But the improvements in command may be more exploiting weakness in Triple-A hitters and less reigning in his blazing heat. Aram’s latest prospect update (from two hours ago) has his command at a 40, for example. That’s barely tolerable for a starter.

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TJStats Pitching Summary

This year has begun with many offensive breakouts which, strangely, come courtesy of the first base position. Offensive numbers generally stabilize quicker than defensive ones, so looking at a offense-first position like first base is very convenient when working with a limited sample of a month or so. I hope to separate the breakouts from the fake outs (credit) amongst the five first basemen that caught my eye the most in the first month.

Ben Rice

Thus far, Rice has surpassed all expectations by registering elite numbers against RHP while holding his own against same-side attacks. His pull-adjusted xWOBA is a staggering .397, his pulled flyball rate is 82nd percentile, his average exit velocity (EV) is 94.8 mph after raising his bat speed 3 mph. Concurrently, he spits on pitches even more than he did last year, chasing a microscopic 18.4% of the time: a combo of a truly mature hitter. That may make it surprising, then, that I’m not particularly convinced of his long-term success yet.

While his overall numbers are outstanding, his splits by pitch type are worrying. His performance against fastballs is insane - a .552 Savant xWOBA, 99.5 average EV, and 12% whiff rate indicate in conjunction that he will be feasting on them all year long. The problem is his performance elsewhere - a .327 xWOBA, 90 mph average EV, and a 21% whiff rate are solid against offspeed, but a .242 xWOBA, 84 mph average EV, and 54% whiff rate against breaking balls is just a killer. He only has 11 balls in play against them, but that’s partially because he can’t get bat to it in the first place. Additionally, the problem isn’t new; he had just a .296 xWOBA on breakers and .251 xWOBA on changeups in 2024, albeit with a more reasonable whiff rate on the former. While one has reason to believe it can be better, there hasn’t been any production there in two stints that encompass nearly half a season. Of his 13 MLB home runs, 12 are on fastballs. So far, it’s all heater, all the time.

Additionally, he has become far more passive at the plate, which may be hurting him despite the absolutely elite chase rate. The slightly lower chase rate has cost him 10% in-zone swing rate, and his groundball rate has risen 14% despite that extra swings selectivity. There will be some regression to the mean across the board, of course, but I think the exit velocities and number of fastballs to chew on will be regressing downward a lot faster than his flyball or whiff rates can go upward. His 55th percentile SEAGER thus far is about level with his 2024 Scranton mark, and significantly lower than his 2024 MLB high of 88th percentile. I’m not sure Rice can get away with so much passivity if he will be such a non-factor on slower stuff and lack the swing decisions to punish the in-zone mistakes. Additionally, he hasn't allowed Aaron Boone to give him a definitive stamp of approval to play full-time. As of this moment, his career wRC+ vs. LHP is 57, and he only clocks in a little better in 2025 at 74.

Can Ben Rice be a very good player? Yes. Has he demonstrated he can be so far? No. He will be force-fed tons of breaking balls soon enough, and his level will probably plummet with it toward simply above-average numbers. His pulled flyball approach plays to the Stadium, but I think a ‘Alex Bregman in his later Astro years’ profile (~125 wRC+) with better EVs and worse plate discipline in a largely-platooned role is a fantastic outcome for Rice long-term.

Tyler Soderstrom

Soderstrom improved in virtually every way entering 2025, which I always raise an eyebrow to instinctively. His most notable jump is in pulled flyball rate, from the 14th percentile (22nd in AAA) to the 61st, courtesy of a 13% jump in pull rate and an 8% drop in groundball rate. His K rate is down 4%, while his power numbers are up. Also, he doubled his xWOBA against breakers, which was the bane of his existence a year ago. What? It all feels a little too good to be true.

It goes without saying that I am not a Soderstrom hater. I think the power overall is legit, and he clearly is a well-disciplined hitter. People fairly compare him to Matt Olson, who had far less pedigree than Soderstrom before completely revolutionizing his game in the bigs. Soderstrom also looked more than capable last season, finishing with a 15% barrel rate and strong strikeout-to-walk ratio in around 50 games. I could see 35 HR and a with poor defense at peak for him, but that’s a long way off from his present .432 pull-adjusted xWOBA and offensive profile that looks like peak Yordan Alvarez. I think the groundball rate will tick back up to 45% or so and he’ll simply be a very good to great first baseman. Or third baseman,apparently.

Jonathan Aranda

Jon Aranda languished in Durham for several years, but 2025 has offered him the runway to be a frequent starter for the Rays for the first time. So far, he has gripped that opportunity by the horns. Most captivating is the combination of a 3% decrease in groundball rate with a 3 mph increase in average EV, although that may fall into the "too good to be true" camp that Soderstrom currently resides in. Additionally, he has improved his swing decisions from below-average to elite by adding a lot of in-zone aggression, a change that should largely be able to stick. One can also hope for pull rate improvement, which currently polls more than 5% lower than his career norms. If the slight increase in flyballs can stick, he can be extremely effective down the right field line.

Now, the uglier parts of his game. Defensively, he’s limited to 1B, and while he will likely stick there so long as Tre’ Morgan is in Montgomery or Durham, he sequestered at DH thereafter. He’s a complete zero on the bases, and his “improved” 45% groundball rate still will create plenty of double plays. He did play against a good amount of LHP in the minors and has been selectively placed in the lineup against big-league LHP thus far into 2025, but he appears to be average against them at best. With the Rays’ strong platooning preferences, a full-strength Rays lineup probably leaves him as a bench option against southpaws. Long term, I’d hope for him to fill a platoon DH role at the level of Kerry Carpenter or Joc Pederson. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but leaves little flexibility for the Rays when utilizing him.

Spencer Torkelson

I’m going to declare it: he’s here. Torkelson has made some subtle adjustments to his game, but with a surprisingly strong foundation already in place from prior years, he looks poised to deliver on his first-overall pick hype.

What is that foundation, you ask? A groundball rate under 35% and a pull rate over 45% in each of the past three years. That means a pulled flyball rate of over 24% each year, and so far this year, he has a 30% groundball rate, 49% pull rate, and 34% pulled flyball rate. That’s an elite assortment of metrics over almost two cumulative seasons of data. Additionally, his plate discipline remains well above average. His walk rate likely won’t stick at 13%, but his SEAGER is around the 75th percentile, better than it was in 2024 and slightly worse than his good 2023. Unlike someone like Rice, his improvements don’t originate from increased power, something Tork has never lacked. His average EV is only up 1 mph from 2023, and the 90th percentile EV may be underselling him, if anything, at the 69th percentile.

Torkelson’s extremely orange cluster on the elevated pull-side makes him an offensive force. Graphic courtesy of @TJStats, based on the original design by @Blandalytics.

The one flaw in his game is the fastball dependency, a common refrain for these power hitters. Historically, he has only performed against them, never getting close to posting a Savant xWOBA above. 300 on breaking pitches or offspeed across a full year. Of course, he’s never had a complete year of success, either. This year, he’s surpassed that benchmark in both pitch groups, but the whiff rates don't appear to be significantly improved. I think if he simply can be passable against the soft stuff and crush fastballs, he can be an All-Star-level first baseman more often than not with his great skillset.

Kyle Manzardo

Perhaps shocking some of you, Kyle Manzardo is my favorite player of the lot long-term. I care most about a player’s process, and Manzardo has one that trumps the vast majority of players in the majors. There’s a lot of Isaac Paredes here, from tons of pulled flyballs to great swing decisions that congruently generate high walk rates and quality contact. The swing decisions are the one thing that hasn't fully transferred to the majors yet, but I'm confident they will; his current 50th percentile is already closer to his Triple-A mark than the poor 16th percentile he put up in 2024. Manzardo is more EV-oriented than Paredes, which also opens the door for production opposite-way with a barrel rate above single digits. For reference, Paredes’ career high in barrel rate was 6.4%. Manzardo’s barrel rate, meanwhile, is nearly double that at the time of writing. Manzardo has a feel for the barrel that Paredes simply doesn’t, with the judgment to weaponize it to its fullest extent.

Manzardo’s main offseason adjustment was chasing 7% less at no cost (improving his SEAGER by 60 percentiles), a number that could stick around given it’s in line with his 2024 days in Triple-A Columbus. In that same tenure with the Clippers, he also hit 20 HR in 83 games and had as many walks as strikeouts. That’ll play. His contact rates remain a little below his career expectations, but there’s nothing that suggests that won’t revert to normal. His present groundball and pulled flyball rates of 32% and 31% respectively are elite.

He also seems to have fixed a hole against breaking balls, an Achilles heel for him that contributed to his disappointing major league stint and a severe drop-off in prospect rankings. Thus far, he’s fared far better against LHP than RHP, “reverse splits” that should correct themselves with time. In the minors, he was equally capable against both sides, a great trait for an offensively-oriented lefty to keep themselves in the lineup. A peak of 30 HR and a 130-140 wRC+ would be a welcome sight in Cleveland and is well within the possibility for this year already.

Conclusion (in order of preference)

(1) Kyle Manzardo - The approach is extremely refined already across the board, including no left-on-left problems. Once his splits vs RHP work themselves out, his stats will reflect that reality. I’d call him a left-handed Isaac Paredes (30 HR, 130 wRC+) with more general power, less contact. It's a tight race with Soderstrom; Manzardo has the floor, Soderstrom has the ceiling.

(2) Tyler Soderstrom - One dreams for Matt Olson at his best. I’d expect the pull and groundball rates to regress a bit, but he should be able to improve a smidge across the board. No reason to believe he won’t be an occasional All-Star at worst.

(3) Spencer Torkelson - I think he’s finally here. Has shown modest improvements across the board while maintaining swing decisions. One has room to believe it’ll stick around with how reminiscent it is of his great second half in 2023. One issue is his reliance on punishing fastballs, but he’ll probably always earn his meal primarily off heaters. I could see him reach 2021-22 Pete Alonso in the best of times (140 wRC+).

(4) Ben Rice - Arroz could use some more work with a “heater-or-bust” approach that will be exploited soon. The zone control is legit, but whether he’s a well-rounded top-of-the-order hitter or a strict platoon middle-order hitter is TBD. He desperately needs to get the ball off the turf more.

(5) Jonathan Aranda - Strict platoon. Mashing at the level of Kerry Carpenter or peak Joc Pederson in exclusively strong-side matchups would be a great outcome for someone who spent the majority of the last several years at Triple-A, despite great performances (146 wRC+ in 1000 PA) there. Being able to man first consistently would give flexibility in the post-Yandy Diaz, pre-Tre Morgan era. Rice gets the edge as the more likely everyday player, but their skillsets are similar.

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After a disastrous 2024 debut, Will Warren is poised to be a major contributor to the Yankees' rotation in 2025 after a rash of injuries. He offers a deep mix with a focus on crazy outlier movement similar to Dustin May, notwithstanding his lack of 98 mph heat, and the typical sweeper emphasis of numerous Yankee starting products. The main concerns with Warren are if the mix can work with the large gaps his outlier pitches create, particularly against LHB where his sweeper won’t be nearly as effective, and if he can get his fastball variations to be consistently effective. In 2024, his sinker was a serious sore spot for him, and his 4-seam shape isn’t particularly original in any regard.

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Pitch Mix

A common theme for Will is improvement in induced vertical break (IVB) figures across the board, most notably on his 4-seam, which gained 1.5 inches with the same arm angle. IVB considers vertical movement outside of gravity, and while it often runs hot early in the year before dropping off by the mid-summer months, it indicates that the worst-case scenario is what we got last season, which was passable, albeit in the realm of the dreaded dead zone. The 2025 offering provides an above-average approach angle relative to release height on above-average extension, pushing it towards calmer waters. With just 30% usage, the pitch should be safe so long as it doesn’t spring an IVB leak.

As mentioned in the intro, his sinker is a critical component of his operation. In its limited usage in the majors in 2024, it had a Wheeler-esque 50% chase rate vs RHB and had an equally absurd 40% CSW. The pitch did get clobbered, but that felt like a sequencing and sample issue more than a shape one; the pitch was reminiscent of Paul Skenes’ splinker and Tanner Houck’s dominant sinker with the amount of depth it managed. This season, it pushed its vert up 2 inches, which seems like a curious decision that separates it from the other unicorn sinkers in a negative way. It also gained 3 inches of run to bring it back towards distinctive territory, but the results simply haven’t been there. It continues to get killed, and the chase rate is now in the bin, down nearly 28% year over year. He’s also throwing it much more backdoor, and inadvertent or not, it’s just not working. Given the great responsibilities it’s given against RHB (>45% usage!) it simply has to be better.

The sweeper is his real money pitch, dancing 19 inches toward the glove side in Spring Training at just shy of 3000 RPM. It’s a plus pitch at worst when factoring in its crazy-hard velocity - 82 mph - and may even be double-plus. Its one issue is his hard-hit rate, which may be a consequence of 29 inches of separation from the rest of his Spring Training arsenal aside from his new, sweepy curve. The ideal contact rate (ICR) on the pitch is higher than last year, a difficult feat considering it was 50% then, and it isn’t returning the swing-and-miss to justify the damage. The sinker/sweeper combination garners groundballs at a minimum, but the contact is so hard off the bat that it doesn't even matter.

Then comes the changeup, which lost several inches of carry to create a more unique pocket for itself on the arm side. Before, changeups and sinkers were virtually overlapping with the crazy depth the sinker generated, but their respective changes have made them several inches apart on both axes. While he demonstrated slightly less dogmatic use of it in the Spring, that hasn’t carried over to the regular season. He’s best equipped to beat RHB with his typical sinker/sweeper combination, but a mixed-in changeup could help disguise the sinker more in on the hands. Against LHB, it’s underperformed, but that feels like a sampling issue more than a skill one. The zone rate is 25% with few whiffs despite some strong arm-side location.

Lastly, his new 80 mph curve has benefitted him greatly vs LHB. His arsenal in that platoon matchup is all four-seam, sweeper, and changeup otherwise, and it creates a nice movement middle ground to generate some whiffs at low risk.

Warren has ditched his cutter from 2024 for a new curveball, leaving a critical vacancy in the middle of his pitch plot. Graphic courtesy of TJStats’ Pitching Summary.

Conclusion

I feel like I’ve been quite negative throughout the article, so it’s worth mentioning that his last start against Cleveland was his best yet. Against a lineup saturated with left-handed and switch hitters, he was able to steal lots of strikes with sweepers on the outer half and below the zone, and his curve and changeup did their job adequately. He still got hit pretty hard, though, and the changeup didn’t do a great job generating swings and misses despite fairly low usage. Not to mention, he didn’t use a single sinker in the entire game! Talk about a hard-line approach. If things go wrong, it’s difficult for him to adjust (see: his game against the Rays).

Overall, I’m confident that he needs that cutter back to fully unlock his potential. Gerrit Cole abandoned his, only to bring it back at the proper time of need with great results. A 10% usage cutter could dramatically bolster him at the moment, and the shape was super unique (in part because of only 20 pitches registered). Its 0 inches of vert on 4.5 inches of run could be a serious aid on an island in the middle of his Cartesian pitch plane.

My prediction was more pessimistic than I imagined when researching this. At present, it feels like an ERA of 4.00-4.25 long-term because he lacks a true overpowering pitch to take over on his best days or bail him out when he’s on his B or C game. He’s often compared to Michael King, but I think King has the advantage in pitch shapes, command, and depth of mix. That is to say, Warren is the incredibly discounted version of King. The individual pieces are there for an ERA closer to 3.75, though, with a satisfactory resolution to his LHB situation (reintroducing a cutter or incorporating more curves, for example).

That does it for SPs to Watch. Apologies for the delay in posting this. Now that the series is done, the floodgates will open for different types of articles. I’m excited.

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You can access Part 1, which includes explanations for Ranks 1-25 here. You can see the full rankings in the graphic below if you’d like to skip around. Thanks for checking the list out!

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My rankings if you want to skip somewhere specific. Big thanks to @TJStats for providing the foundation of the code from his pitching summary article.

26. Bryce Harper - 32 - Philadelphia Phillies - 1B (Previous Rank: 10, P: 27, T: 24)

2024 may have been Bryce Harper’s worst season in nearly a decade, and although that only means it was a great season rather than an elite one, it gives me some doubt about how effective he can be in the years to come. He will be 32 come Opening Day, and he showed regression in almost every area a slugger could - without the ability to claim a significant injury derailed him like 2023. He opted for a far more stable approach last year, creating way more contact as a result, but it came at the hefty cost of plenty more lazy flyballs. He was not emphatic when he got a pitch to hit, producing only a 10.6% barrel rate, and without more balls in play or free passes. Combined with the new reality of full-time play at first with just average speed, the upside seems to be fleeting. While a .352 (pull-adjusted) xWOBA is solid, it’s not enough for someone limited in contribution elsewhere. One can hope it’s a one-year lapse, but he appears to be on the trajectory of a stable middle-order option, rather than an offensive virtuoso in the years to come.

27. Adley Rutschman - 27 - Baltimore Orioles - C (Previous Rank: 21, P: 140, T: 119)

While Rutschman had the first serious hiccup of his career, underperforming in almost every category, there’s fortunately a clear launch date for his struggles. Before June 27th, he had a .830 OPS and 15 HRs, both of which were on pace to be the highest of his career. After getting hit in the wrist during the 5th inning in that game, however, he went a pitiful .550 OPS and 4 HRs the rest of the way while confusingly avoiding the IL. There’s no reason to believe he turned into a pumpkin permanently, so I have to excuse his post-injury performance and work with the results in his first 3 months. As alluded to earlier, he moved away from his “as many walks as strikeouts” approach for a more straightforward “hit bombs” one in that time, with a corresponding drop from the 93rd percentile in the swing decisions metric SEAGER in 2022 to the 24th in 2024. It wasn’t detrimental to his overall performance, but it certainly wasn’t the plan of attack that made him so highly touted as a prospect. Adley himself seems to partially agree - after the injury that sapped his abilities, he returned to walking about as much as he struck out despite being practically no offensive threat.

Adley’s Process+ (the bold white line) does a no-dive after his June 27th game. In particular, the green bars representing his power go from comfortably over the “100” line to the equivalent of Marinara’s Trench. Chart sourced from here.

With all that in mind, his defense is my main sticking point for the drop in ranking. He’s continued to be a modest positive, but the promise of the elite defense he showed in his rookie year continues to get further and further away with reversion in framing and pop times. We may have seen just about the ceiling of Rutschman: a 130 wRC+ hitter with above-average defense at catcher. That's a great player, but not near the top-10 or serious MVP consideration.

28. Mike Trout - 33 - Los Angeles Angels - OF (Previous Rank: 4, P: DNQ, T: 384)

Where do I put Michael Nelson Trout? Fairly low, apparently. While my list doesn’t punish players for missing time with the focus on prorated production, it does punish 33-year-olds who rapidly losing value in all areas other than pop. The time has finally come for him to vacate center field for the corner, and I would expect him correspondingly to be more passive on the bases to protect his body. A power-hitting corner outfielder can be quite useful (see: Judge, Aaron), but his batted-ball results put him closer to Bryce Harper than even someone like second-half Jackson Chourio, and his SEAGER was a horrendous 22nd percentile, by far his lowest since tracking began in 2020. There is some room for optimism: he again put up a generationally low groundball rate, 24%, which would keep him in lockstep with his great 2019 and 2022 years, and he was a positive on the bases for the first time in more than half a decade. Yet his sprint speed has continued to drop, and he doesn’t inspire the same fear in opposing pitchers to pitch around him for 20% walk rates. If Trout was in the NBA, he’d be a star that was load-managed every third game, and in a sport where everyday availability is compulsory for position players, becoming a permanent DH may be inevitable. 6 more years on that contract.

29. Patrick Bailey - 25 - San Francisco Giants - C (Previous Rank: UR, P: 12, T: 35)

Some may be surprised that Bailey is on here, but you shouldn’t be. Patrick Bailey is the best defender in the league, and it’s not close. Last season, he had a 22 Fielding Run Value (FRV), 5 more than 2nd place Daulton Varsho, and the year prior, he was 2nd with a 18 FRV. When looking at framing specifically, it’s even more impressive. He’s saved 41.1 runs in 1675 innings by stealing strikes in the past two years, with the 2nd-best coming in 16.5 runs behind (Austin Hedges). A defensive monster in his own right, Hedges managed that mark in just 963.2 innings. Third place is Francisco Alvarez, at 23.1, in a Bailey-comparable 1599.2 innings. Put simply, Bailey is almost twice as good at framing as every other catcher in the league. Bailey also controls the run game extremely well. His caught stealing rate is around 27%, which is solid in itself, but his pop time of around 1.85 is incredible, and implies that the fault may be more with the pitcher than with him. He ranked first in the metric this year, and tied for second last year, on a similarly great 1.87.

Patrick Bailey is in a league of his own defensively. The orange dot at around 25 framing runs and 900 innings is Bailey. Despite nearly a dozen catchers playing as many innings, nobody is even close. [FanGraphs]

Offense has been Bailey’s biggest shortcoming, but he’s shown great improvement in minimal time. In 2024, he improved his SEAGER from the 8th percentile to the 36th, cut his K rate 6% while walking 3% more, and hit the ball 2.5 mph harder on average. He looks like a league-average hitter with the defense of Austin Hedges, which is a terrifying combination. A year from now, there’s a good chance this ranking is far too low.

30. Blake Snell - 32 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: DNQ, T: 90)

You can hear my thoughts on Snell in a more developed manner in the article I wrote about him after his second Cy Young season, where I found his high walk rate to not be an issue of command, but rather the damage-adverse approach that Niebla has endorsed with pitchers like Bieber during his peak years. His troublesome trio of secondaries continues to carry on, but the slider continues to descend in the pecking order for his monster curveball and changeup. The Dodgers have made a couple of modifications in the leadup to Spring Training, most notably adding more carry to all four of his offerings. The most radical of the adjustments was to his curveball, having sliced its depth in half, but I imagine they're trying to bring everything a little closer together for tunneling purposes as they did with Tyler Glasnow in his debut year. If the Dodgers can get Snell to be even better than last season, where he was one of two pitches to have a higher CSW% than ICR% (Tarik Skubal was the other), that would be an accomplishment in itself.

31. Logan Gilbert - 27 - Seattle Mariners - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 174, T: 119)

After much fanfare about Kirby, Logan Gilbert seems to be the premier pitcher of the massive crop of young starters they’ve promoted over the past several years. He maximizes his 6'6" frame to elicit 7'6" of extension, matching Tyler Glasnow for top marks amongst the SP class, and attacks the zone with a wide and ever-growing swath of pitches. The splitter that he added two seasons ago was far more mature this time around and reaped the rewards that it deserved; its 53% whiff rate against LHB puts it in a class of its own, and a 60% groundball rate never hurts either. His gyro slider, his premier pitch at a blistering 88.5 mph, saw similar gains in command to run crazy numbers across the board. The cutter was a brand-new addition for 2024, and it should have better days ahead. It ran great swing and miss, but was lit up with more amateur placement than one's used to with LG. Given it comes in at a hard 92 and has great carry, I expect improvement next year similar to the splitter's. His 4-seam only sees 30% usage, but that still may be too much taking into account its mediocre shape and its only slightly above-average results. He has reduced it by around 10% per year since 2021, and I'd be surprised if it remained above 25% with what he's got cooking.

Overall, Gilbert seems to be able to do everything very well. He limits hard contact, gets lots of groundballs, and is elite at generating whiffs with all of his pitches. One has to of course consider that he plays in Seattle, which is Heaven on Earth for pitchers. His away ERA is 1.50 higher than at home! Nonetheless, he’s a workhorse who can do a kitchen sink approach better than anyone consistently. As shown by his little header, I think WAR doesn't appreciate his talents nearly enough.

32. Jarren Duran - 28 - Boston Red Sox - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 16, T: 7)

I want to believe that this form of Jarren Duran is close to real, but I can’t bring myself to. I see a lot of Julio Rodriguez in him: great defense in center field and elite at getting an extra 90 feet, but “only” a capable hitter with a scary groundball rate. He’s a fairly free swinger, with a 26th percentile SEAGER, and although he possesses great bat speed for his strikeout rate, it feels like something has to give. I'd guess his strikeout rate rises from his below-average contact rate out of the strike zone, which will hurt his stolen base opportunities in turn. The baserunning and defense will give him an amazing floor, but I’m not sure Fenway will allow him to outperform his batted ball data by 30 WOBA points consistently.

33. Yoshi Yamamoto - 26 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SP (Previous Rank: 50, P: DNQ, T: 257)

The three-time Sawamura Award winner had an untimely injury right as he began capitalizing on his adjustments State-side to justify his ace status, but managed to reconnoiter before a critical playoff run. In the last month before his mid-June injury, he ran a 22 K-BB%, 33% ideal contact rate (ICR), and 59% groundball rate amidst a stretch of 7 runs in 27 innings against quality opposition. In particular, he had a fantastic start in the penultimate game in that span against the Bronx Bombers in that stretch, pushing his whole arsenal up by 1.5 - 2.5 mph to pitch a gem away from home. The next start, his triceps gave in early. Perhaps a coincidence, perhaps a sign of the cost of running hot. Although he did return by September, it cost him a chance to put up a great rookie season, or even contend for a Cy Young Award.

His fastball performed well with its great ride but is limited by frequently featuring in the bottom of the zone, where it doesn’t harvest many swings and misses. His curveball is his main calling card, with a ridiculous 19 inches of drop, and he took a proactive approach to procure called strikes. Its 30% called strike rate alone would be a great CSW mark, but its above-average whiff rate lent itself to a swinging strike rate of 13% in addition. The hefty in-zone rate cost him a lot of hard contact, so I imagine there will be a greater focus on keeping it down. Of course, that's easy enough to say from my swivel chair. Regardless of how he elects to handle it, it'll persist as an ongoing issue so long as it keeps that trademark depth with a foot of sweep. Out of the hand, it'll always stick out like a sore thumb.

Then comes his splitter, which has below-average carry and run at a blistering 90 mph. It was located well to induce a swinging strike rate of 25%, and I imagine its batted ball quality (xWOBAcon) will drop in due time with a groundball rate over 60%. He also has played with a cutter and sinker, both posting mixed results despite profiles that should lend themselves to success if he has the tenacity to continue to try weaving them into the game plan. I suspect a repeat performance from Yamamoto in 2025, and perhaps even an improvement on his 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. His peripherals across the board were outstanding, and he has a great grip on his arsenal.

34. Max Fried - 31 - New York Yankees - SP (Previous Rank: 34, P: 84, T: 68)

My love for Fried is well-documented, and while he had a tough 2024 for his usual standards, what he did manage to do only solidifies why I’m such a believer. His changeup and curveball were more erratic, costing him whiffs in the former and hard contact in the latter with their career-high zone rates. I'm confident they will regress to the mean in 2025, and there’s something new to look forward to in his sweeper, a pitch the Yankees are known for making a focal point in pitching development. It has 10 inches of depth, a completely absurd amount that demonstrates his low-vert emphasis perfectly, and gives him another weapon to handle the same-side platoon matchup that completely dominated him last year with a drop in his traditional slider usage. His OPS against LHB was a shocking .850, compared to .550 vs RHB, and that will not be a difference that sticks around. His “down year” produced a 15 K-BB%, 3.60 SIERA, and 33% ICR, which is the type of stat line most pitchers would die for. I expect more sweepers next year - perhaps some extra sliders as well - and with the move to LHP-friendly Yankee Stadium, Max Fried is due for another sub-3.00 ERA year.

35. Cal Raleigh - 28 - Seattle Mariners - C (Previous Rank: UR, P: 20, T: 19)

I likely misevaluated Raleigh last season when I barely considered him for the top 50, and he leaped at the chance to demonstrate my foolishness with his best season yet. He posted 5.2 fWAR in just under 650 PA, demonstrating his prowess as a switch-hitting catcher (mainly from the left side) while posting elite power and plate discipline skills. He ranks 96th percentile in pulled flyballs, explaining how he managed 34 home runs in cavernous Safeco Field, and 87th percentile in SEAGER, a noticeable improvement from prior seasons that helps explain his 2-point increase in walk rate. A typical year for Cal should be 30 HR and a 115 wRC+ without being an anchor on the bases, and that's more than good enough. While few catchers can hit in the middle of the order and induce less than a dozen double plays per year, Raleigh manages it casually.

Although his offense is great, his defense behind the dish may be even better. Last year, he evolved into being an elite framer, ranking in the 98th percentile according to Statcast, and he runs an above-average pop time to disincentivize the ever-growing number of prospective base stealers (Raleigh stole a career-high 6 himself!). All told, I would consider him similar in quality to the Dodgers’ Will Smith from a few years ago, except with more skill points indexed into defense than offense.

36. Rafael Devers - 28 - Boston Red Sox - 3B (Previous Rank: 31, P: 48, T: 42)

I had a dilemma on what position to give Devers in his header. Despite exclusively playing third base outside of six chance innings in his whole career, some preseason drama makes a hefty dosage of first and DH almost assured in his near future. The move is well-warranted - it lets him mitigate his defensive weaknesses and creates more avenues for prospects Kristian Campbell (who will now debut) and Marcelo Mayer. In fact, he has consistently been a large negative at the hot corner according to DRS throughout his entire career, and all but one on the authority of Savant. I’m not sure how strong of a first baseman he can be, but he surely can’t bring less defensive value. Right?

Offensively, he carries on consistently as ever. He's a lock for 30 HR and a 130 wRC+ every year with no real weakness in his game. He limits the strikeouts even with his great power, can work a walk, and can crush every pitch type to an elite level. Perhaps the pulled flyball rates could improve, but that's a minor nitpick at Fenway, where you can elevate and celebrate over the Monster. The most surprising thing to me during research was his bat speed, only 72.5 mph and in the 60th percentile, in spite of hard-hit rates that exceed the 90th. That epitomizes Devers' innate feel for the barrel perfectly.

37. Tyler Glasnow - 31 - Los Angeles Dodgers - SP (Previous Rank: 30, P: 166, T: 221)

Glasnow is one of the biggest beneficiaries of my list being based on prorated production rather than total production. Despite pitching six years as a full-time starter, he set his career-high in innings pitched this year at…134. For reference, Logan Gilbert had 132.1 IP this year. In the first half.

The Dodgers didn’t tinker with Glasnow really at all. The big addition was a sinker to jam RHB and add a different look to his extremely vertical arsenal, and it earned its place immediately. It managed an ICR of less than 30% against RHB and a 20% whiff rate, both great marks for a 2-seamer. The pitching lab also continued a consistent trend of Glasnow reducing the amount of drop in his curve, this time by 1.5 inches, making it now a cumulative 6 inches less than it was in 2019. While it didn’t run the same gaudy whiff numbers of years past, it also limited hard contact efficiently for (arguably) the first time in his career. On the whole, Glasnow had an ICR 2% lower than any other season since 2020 at the expense of some swing and miss; Glasnow’s 32.2% K rate was his lowest since he became a full-time starter in 2019, but it still would top the chart amongst qualified starters. The Dodgers’ aim seems to be to reduce volatility in Glasnow by sacrificing some of his nastiness for damage control, perhaps saving his arm in the process. After a 2024 season that saw Glasnow post the best peripherals (specifically in xERA, xFIP, and SIERA) and innings total of his career, it’s hard to call that mission a failure.

38. William Contreras - 27 - Milwaukee Brewers - C (Previous Rank: UR, P: 29,T: 19)

Like Raleigh, I omitted William Contreras last year because I didn’t fully buy into his success, but after another year of great all-around play, I’m cautiously in. His best trait is his elite swing decisions that rank in the 100th percentile across the league, and he's picked up some power along the way for maximum effect. This may not be obvious, considering he chases pitches out of the zone an average amount, but he virtually never takes a good pitch to hit. That nuance helps clarify how he has sustained a 20% K rate with pretty mediocre chase and whiff rates two years in a row. My sole concern for him with the bat is his groundball rate; 54% is sky-high, and his poor vertical bat angle (VBA) of 27.5° means the contact quality isn't going to improve any time soon.

Defensively, he remains solid. He couldn’t match his great 14.4 runs above average in FanGraphs framing from 2023, a likely outlier to begin with, but he was still a hefty net positive at just past 3 runs over par. Statcast gives him a more lukewarm reception, calling him a neutral in everything but the run game - where he’s a negative - but that’s still more than good enough for a bat as good as his. I question whether he can keep up this much offensive output with his high groundball rates, but there is no question that he is an elite hitter by catching standards.

39. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 26 - Toronto Blue Jays - 1B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 30, T: 17)

Has Vlad Guerrero finally broken through? By Betteridge’s law, my answer must be "no", albeit with studies on the issue showing the answer to the headline is actually more often "yes". Unfortunately, then, I must actually explain the answer.

First, the good. Unlike his great 2021, he demonstrated dominance against all pitch types; he produced results against everything, rather than simply crushing heaters. That allowed him to put up near 94 mph exit velocities against every pitch group, despite not passing 93 on anything the year prior. He was also much stricter with when he swung - this may not necessarily be a positive, but the results seem to indicate it was. These two changes allowed him to flash the great hit and power tools that people praised as a prospect consistently.

Now the not-so-good. His VBA is largely unchanged at a flat 27॰, which hampers how far his exit velocities can take him. Even with a 94 mph average EV and 110.5 mph 90th percentile EV, he retained a barrel rate barely above 10%. That’s great, of course, but clearly not superstar caliber. His groundball rate still hovers around 50%, and he pulled the ball less than any other point in his career. In fact, his pulled flyball rate was worse than any season he’s played since 2021. That‘s the Don Mattingly Way™, and it may be the thing keeping the true Vladdy Jr. caged within.

Lastly, the ugly. Defensively, he’s no stalwart. DRS gives him a middling rating at first base, while FRV calls him well below average. Even at 20, he was a negative defender at third, making a move back unlikely despite occasional rumors to the contrary. On the bases, he’s a heavy negative and has grounded into 6 more double plays than anyone else in the past four seasons. Part of that is volume, but it may equally be his "ground and pound" offensive game.

In all, Guerrero has the makings of a great slugging first baseman, but can’t seem to fully bring it together offensively to make up for his shortcomings He will be a free agent after 2025, and I imagine he will get a deal between $450 and $500 million without a crazy outlier season one way or the other. That still will be far too much, of course. He had nearly a 1 fWAR/650 PA season, like, a year and a half ago.

40. Cole Ragans - 27 - Kansas City Royals - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 36, T: 27)

I don't like doing honorable mentions out of principle, but if I had last year, Ragans would have, without a doubt, been first on the list. He suffered from the same sort of doubt that Skubal got in off-season discourse after his amazing 2nd half, but the lack of polish gave me too much doubt in his consistency to put him in the top 50. From August 2nd to the end of 2023, his swinging strike rate was over 16% and his groundball rate was near 50%, but he walked nearly 10% of batters he faced and achieved his 2.70 ERA by achieving the delicate balance between a masterpiece and a complete clunker. While he showed better poise on off days last season to avoid the hair-pulling outings, further issues took their place. He regressed by a tick of velocity across the board and lost the depth of his mix after a precipitous plunge in production from his cutter and slider.

The changeup is what makes everything work. It was generationally good with a 47% whiff rate and a 27% swinging strike rate on 25% usage with great lift that generates swings underneath it. The fastball has great vert, but with his release, the large tailing action from his natural pronating tendencies, and below-average extension, it underwhelms at 95.5. It performed worse than ever against RHB, and that is the last thing he wants when his slider has seen monumental regression simultaneously. His gyro slider lost 11% of its swinging strike rate, the largest decline I think I’ve ever seen in one year, and it gave up a horrific 46% ICR at the same time. I suspect it’ll regress to the mean somewhat, but when the cutter sees the exact same issue emerge (29% -> 41% ICR) Ragans feels more and more like a “boom or bust” pitcher akin to Gerrit Cole than a true showstopping ace. Perhaps more curves can do the trick, which functioned well 10% of the time, but troubling signs are emerging.

41. Spencer Schwellenbach - 24 - Atlanta Braves - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 65, T: 132)

I declared Spencer Schwellenbach "baseball's most underrated player" last August, wherein I detail why I held, and continue to hold the young Brave pitcher in such high regard. If you want explicit details, I suggest reading that. Put succinctly: he’s an extreme outlier in getting whiffs whilst simultaneously dodging barrels, and has a five-pitch arsenal that is far more advanced than it has any right to be. Keep in mind that he started the 2024 season in Low-A before getting pushed to the majors by May 28th. There was a clip going around about his ridiculous splitter, and it very well could be his third-best pitch (it gets better results than the slider, but the slider is used against both sides). His worst pitch of the five is probably his four-seam due to its middling location, which is comical considering it has a 32% CSW on great carry all the same. He has a serious chance of being the best starter on the Braves next year, with Fried's departure to New York and Strider’s return from surgery piling on top of his already persistent hard contact issues.

The only pitchers to do outperform Schwellenbach in both swing and miss (CSW) and contact mitigation (ICR). He places 18th in ICR-CSW, a statistic of my design that haphazardly finds the pitchers that perform the best.

42. Ketel Marte - 31 - Arizona Diamondbacks - 2B (Previous Rank: UR, P: 9, T: 10)

Ketel Marte played at a top-20 level last season, a performance notarized by both the surface stats and the peripherals, but I can’t say that I’m convinced it’s here to stay. He did make better swing decisions, but there is one glaring outlier in his approach that is the spearhead of his success. His hard-hit rate was 11% higher than any other year of his career, 3 mph harder on average, and his 90th percentile EV was up 2 mph as well. Ketel’s game is lots of contact with respectable power, not lots of contact with lots of power (how many players’ game is that, anyway?), and this flies directly in opposition to that. In addition, this improvement only came against fastballs. He was slightly better against breaking balls, but it seems a little far-fetched to believe that Ketel Marte was able to raise his hard-hit rate against fastballs by a whopping 19% with no concessions at 30 years of age.

Defensively, he was great with 10 runs saved at second base. It's the 2nd-highest mark of his career, and he seems to persist as a slightly above-average defender overall at the position year-over-year. On the bases, he’s dead neutral, indicating the lion's share of his contribution will come from the bat alone. With the concerns listed before, I have to put Ketel Marte far lower on the list than his great year may indicate.

43. Michael King - 29 - San Diego Padres - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 53, T: 42)

I was somewhat doubtful that King could sustain his great play from 2023, but he thoroughly managed it. He's a classic product of the Yankee system with a great changeup/sweeper combination and with a strong grasp of his sinker, he's a nightmare to face. His 2-seamer stole strikes over 30% of the time with minimal risk, thanks to its meticulous placement on the outer third to RHB and inner third to LHB. His changeup is involved 25% of the time - 37% against LHB - and is similarly dominant with a 21% swinging strike rate and 35% ICR on a 97th percentile chase rate. It gave up only a handful of barrels all year, which is incredible considering its elite 70% strike rate. He pounds the top of the zone with his four-seam, and if any pitch is due for regression, it’s that one. I don't think it has the movement to be in the upper echelon when used a quarter of the time at 94 mph. Lastly, his sweeper stymies hitters on both sides with great down and away location, getting a sub-1% mistake rate on 18% usage according to PitcherList.

The main concern for me is his ability to deal with LHB; the changeup is great, but the sinker and sweeper should expect regression, and one would be happy if the 4-seam was simply average. He additionally was down a mph on his hardest offerings across the full season, a symptom of an increased workload, but any further drop would be cause for concern. I suspect the command will stick around and allow him to carry a 3.50 ERA regardless, but there’s far more risk than his sub-3 ERA in 2024 would indicate.

44. Corbin Burnes - 30 - Arizona Diamondbacks - SP (Previous Rank: 29, P: 123, T: 76)

Rent is due, so I need to put Burnes somewhere that people will growl at me for and farm engagement. Burnes is a real shell of his former self, and honestly, he’s lucky to be on the list at all. Just three years ago, he probably would have been top-5 on this list with a 35% K rate, 35% CSW, and 31% ICR over 167 innings. Now, he scuttles by on a 23% K rate, 33% ICR, and 29.5% CSW. He’s practically a contact mitigation specialist now, which is fine as long as his command remains in check, but feels like a dramatic under deliverance of his abilities.

His cutter, as with anything involving Corbin Burnes, is the sticking point here. It’s down 2 inches of run from his peak seasons of 2020 and 2021, and the whiff rate has plummeted from 33% to 19%. He dropped its usage by 10% in 2024 after years of consistent 55% usage to make room for his superior secondaries, a wise decision. Most impressive is his slider, which tunnels amazingly well with his cutter, harvesting 45% whiff and chase rates and 25% swinging strike rates at will from his opponents at virtually no risk. Burnes doubled its usage by claiming that lost cutter territory, and he may well double it again. If so, I may be back on board the Corbin Burnes hype train, with a quality curve and change in reserve. Otherwise, it all feels a little too precarious. Back-to-back SIERAs at 3.75 or over doesn’t give me any confidence in long-term success.

45. Michael Harris II - 24 - Atlanta Braves - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 147, T: 205)

After a third straight year of regression in prorated performance, my faith in Harris’ game is undeterred. He had a solitary bad baserunning year coming off a hamstring issue, and flashed better use of the pull side while keeping the rest of his unique qualities in check. His center field defense remained elite, and he’s able to make his swing-happy approach work while keeping balls in play to use his wheels to his advantage. If given a full season, I expect 20 HR, 25 SB, and 10 FRV at a minimum; if he doesn’t reach those totals, I’m not sure I can consider him a top-50 player next season. At some point, he has to show a little bit more than promise.

46. Sandy Alcantara - 29 - Miami Marlins - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: DNQ, T: DNQ)

I debated who, if any, of the absent aces from 2024 would make the list, and Sandy is the first one of those candidates to make the cut. The announcement of an innings limit early in the year doesn't affect him in this ranking due to its prorated performance focus, but it may indicate that he holds back a little for the autumn months. Going off his Spring Training velocities of 98 on his heaters and 88-90 on the soft stuff, this placement seems fair enough. He ran into trouble before injury in late 2023 with regression in sinker command and changeup performance, the latter being something I correctly predicted in that year's list as justification to not call him one of the top couple starters. His balanced four-pitch mix, all between 20 and 30% usage overall, gives him some leeway to struggle, but he may lack the same overbearing velocity to succeed deep in games.

47. Logan Webb - 28 - San Francisco Giants - SP (Previous Rank: 38, P: 108, T: 60)

I was more pessimistic about Webb than my ranking may have indicated last year, mainly due to questions about how his heavy called strike approach could sustain itself. This year, some of the problems with such an approach revealed themselves, but it's nowhere near the cause of his regression.

Yes, his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate rose, and he got less ground balls with harder contact. But the changeup, his critical pitch, saw a 23% increase in ICR and a 21% drop in groundball rate to same-handed hitters this year, despite continuing to post absolutely absurd (52%?!) chase rates against them. Such a decline doesn’t make sense to me - the changeup still killed the same crazy amount of vertical break, and the horizontal break may have improved by dropping even further into "cooky low" territory. To add to the mystery, it had the lowest mistake rate of his career according to PitcherList, and was zoned a shockingly low 30% of the time. Perhaps its tendency to leak more arm-side is a consideration, but the pitch as played was completely unusable, and it saw similar, albeit more muffled regression against their intended left-handed targets as well.

Webb’s sinker drops nearly 6 inches more than one would expect from his arm angle, a mark that can only be matched by someone like Clay Holmes. Nearly half of the sinker’s circle is in the black, indicating that it is completely uncharted territory. [Max Bay’s Dead Zone App]

If he can find his changeup again, all is good. His sinker performed at its usual elite level with 6 extra inches of drop out of the hand, and the sweeper continued to pacify RHB. I don't see a reason to drop Webb in the ranking, because this sort of year was already priced in last season. The outlier walk rate seemed like a giveaway to upcoming regression to the mean, rather than a breakthrough in command.

48. Matt Olson - 30 - Atlanta Braves - 1B (Previous Rank: 19, P: 170, T: 142)

I’m done with putting first basemen at 19 after a Paul Goldschmidt ranking failure the year before this one. I don't know what to think of Olson anymore, since he seems to undulate like Machado between an MVP-level year and one to forget. He stopped punishing fastballs to the incredible degree he was prior and completely caved to secondaries, which seems like just a speed bump given his career trajectory. I’m gonna take the Machado approach from years past by throwing him on the list and largely ignoring his prior season’s performance because he seems to come and go as he pleases year to year.

49. Carlos Correa - 30 - Minnesota Twins - SS (Previous Rank: UR, P: DNQ, T: 35)

A last-minute addition to the ranking, Correa was in vintage form offensively for his 86 2024 games in Minneapolis. He consistently makes very good swing decisions with plenty of contact, despite elite bat speed that generates great power. He tapped into his pull-side power more than any season since his Houston days and endures as a solid, albeit not great, defensive shortstop in spite of ongoing lower body injuries that got two contracts voided. Even if he was an average third baseman, the offensive level from three of the past four years is high enough for C.C. to be considered a top 50 player.

50. Spencer Strider - 26 - Atlanta Braves - SP (Previous Rank: 16, P: DNQ, T: 1233)

Strider was roughed up in his first 2 starts of 2024 before going down with an elbow injury that cost him the season. He got to briefly display his new curveball in that time, which will add a much-needed 3rd speed range to his mix. It's more of a tastebreaker than a dominant third offering, but if it can be average against left-handed hitters at 15-20% usage, Strider should be able to get by.

On the other side of the coin, his fastball was down a tick from 2023 (it was down a further tick from 2022), a certain component of his poor performance. Strider’s performance will be heavily dictated by how hard he can throw coming off surgery - he will hope for an outcome akin to Skubal, who has seen his fastball velocity increase by 3 mph since his own season-ending operation. He's pushed it past 98 in the Spring, but how things look in July will be the truth test.

Strider gets great utility from his elite fastball/slider tunnel to get whiffs, but their aggressive use leads to plenty of barrels. The values are in Run Value per 100 pitches over expected [Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App]

Lastly, we arrive at a slider that remains perhaps the league's best deceptive. It consistently runs 25% swinging strike and 50% whiff rates against left-handed hitters, which is just jaw-dropping. Against righties, it exceeded a 60% whiff rate in 2023, which might be even more amazing. It does get crushed to get those results, despite a low in-zone rate, and that's why the curve is so key. One can live with a 40% ICR if the CSW is even higher, a quality only conceivable for a dozen pitches amongst the league's starters at most. That’s why his curve is so critical; any reduction in hard contact from pitch disparity is more swing-and-miss at low cost.

Conclusion

That wraps up the list. If there’s enough interest, I’m willing to do an “honorable mentions” article (something I admitted to generally being against in the Cole Ragans blurb, and remains true). Part 1 of this year’s list has outperformed last year’s counterpart in just six weeks, so it seems like there may be some interest there. I already have many blurbs ready because of how players got cut towards the finish line, so it wouldn’t change the timeline of my other releases at all. Otherwise, onwards to less arduous material like the last SP to Watch article mid-week.

P.S. For those curious, Lawrence Butler would probably be my #51. That title was previously claimed by Cole Ragans in 2024 and Yandy Diaz in 2023.

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BaseballReference

PitcherList

BaseballSavant

Robert Orr’s “Realestmuto” Dashboard

SwingGraphs

Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App/Article

Michael Rosen’s Pitch Plot

Max Bay’s Dead Zone App

TJStats’ Spring Training App

TJStats’ Pitching Summary code (for ranking graphic)

Tobias Myers may not look like an underrated pitcher on the surface after posting a 3.00 ERA in 138 rookie innings, but his raw approach meant the results weren't at all repeatable without major adjustments. All of the auxiliary statistics to predict future ERA settled in around 4.00, and neither his contact quality nor his swing-and-miss stood out substantially amongst his peers. That isn’t particularly surprising given his Rule-5 status, but it offers the Brewers the unique opportunity to make an already successful lottery ticket even better. In particular, he struggled to keep his breaking pitches down to maximize the elite carry of his 4-seam, the key piece on the path to becoming the strikeout machine he’s well-positioned to become.

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Pitches

The fastball sits 93 mph with solid extension and elite vertical movement. The over-the-top slot doesn’t make it as flat as a fastball like Joe Ryan’s, which, in turn, makes it less deceptive, yet it elicited chases all the same. Its location was strewn across the zone, allowing a 42% ICR on 40% usage against both sides of the plate, which may have been generous given the circumstances. As a whole, the average shape beyond the vertical movement necessitates an emphasis on the top of the zone to get value out of the elite chase rate it's garnering.

The cutter is surprisingly similar to Corbin Burnes’ 2024 edition in shape (apart from a 6 mph velocity difference), yet struggles to make much of an impact. It especially struggled against LHB, with a 46% ICR and a pitiful 12% whiff rate, the demographic it’s meant to succeed with. Far too many cutters are drifting on the outer third to be punished, and it certainly doesn’t move enough to steal strikes backdoor. Some extra sweep may be beneficial, but its current 3.5 inches on 11 inches of vert should be more than enough to be at least average in results. I'd argue this is the most crucial pitch to rein in for future stability.

Next is his changeup, which comes straight from the Kutter Crawford playbook with plenty of vertical and little arm-side break. The separation with the 4-seam is only 7 inches horizontally, which feels low for a pitch that lags 12 mph behind, but opposing hitters couldn’t do anything with it. That fact is even more impressive considering he had less command of it than any other pitch; it missed up and away an alarmingly high amount, yet still maintained a 44% whiff rate and 18% swinging strike rate. The 26% chase rate - 7% below league average - is a sign that hitters aren’t fooled on where it’s going, yet they still can’t square it up; a 75 mph average EV against LHB is diabolical for a pitch thrown one time in five. Myers' offspeed is about as close to a Bugs Bunny changeup you're gonna get, and if he can refine the command to even league-average level, it will carry on at an elite level.

The curveball is 12-6, with below-average depth, but underwhelms on low usage with a velocity of just 78 mph. Myers is no flamethrower, but I imagine it will need to be pushed up a tick or two to make any sort of impact. The whiffs aren’t there, and it gets barreled up far too often despite being a surprise on 4% usage across the board. It’s possible it doesn’t even return next season with the assortment of other solid options to turn to.

Lastly comes his slider, perhaps his most curious pitch. It sweeps just 4.5 inches, creating another tight tunnel with the fastball at three-quarters of a foot. The cutter also moves about as much horizontally, providing the opportunity to replace the slider with a more sweeper-esque shape instead. He could easily go for 8 or 9 inches on the slider, if not more, diversifying his pitch portfolio and giving his cutter some more space to breathe. The current slider is mediocre in movement with a bang-on average velocity of 85.5 and performs well with the solid command he has on it, but it lacks the interesting characteristics that his fastball, cutter, and changeup all possess. A sweeper with some of his trademark carry could fit right in and contribute against RHB.

He flirted with a sinker sparingly throughout the year, and it fits his style. The 11 inches of run is starkly below average with that great carry, making it an interesting consideration. The only concern would be redundancy; he doesn’t desperately need another pitch to beat RHB with his 4-seam and cutter on the fringe of viability against LHB and the chance to take the more natural addition of the sweeper instead. Thus far in Spring Training, he has not thrown any to my eye in Statcast-tracked games.

A breakdown of Tobias Myers’ arsenal, courtesy of TJStats’ Pitching Summary.

Conclusion

Tobias Myers has some real tools at his disposal with his fastball/cutter/slider/changeup core. The command needs serious work despite an average walk rate, and he could do a better job with pitch separation as well on both sides of the plate. I believe that he can run a 3.80 ERA with the innings to qualify for an ERA title given typical off-season growth for a rookie arm, but he could push a 3.60 or better with more serious developments in his game. Without improvement, however, things could really go sideways; a 4.25 ERA or above with his erratic tendencies is well within the realm of possibility.

In other news, I plan to release Part 2 of my Top 50 Players for 2025 sometime next week. I hope you're looking forward to it! Thanks for reading.

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Reese pieced together a great, yet discrete 2024 in a buried Detroit market. His 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP indicate a true #2 or #3 starter, despite a 68% left-on-base rate that places him well on the unlucky side of things. His process is of equal quality; his contact mitigation skills are world-class for his still solid CSW and swinging strike rate measures, placing above the 90th percentile in the former and the 70th in the latter. In a Tiger organization that coaxed the maximum out of Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, I think it’s likely Olson will find the refinements to let him stick the “top of the rotation” landing. Here’s a breakdown of what makes him tick, and what I imagine will be focused upon in a potential breakthrough 2025 campaign.

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Pitches

His most used pitch is actually a slider, which sweeps and drops more than one would expect at 85 mph, with few mistakes in location. The results are an assembly line of missed swings and weak groundballs against both sides of the plate, despite a zone rate 6 points below the league average. The swing-and-miss specifically could power a wind turbine; the chase and whiff rates run around the 95th percentile, and it surely means a bump in the usage rate is to come. Olson demonstrates his great feel for spinning the baseball with it as well, uncorking a slider 350 rpm greater than average on slightly below-average velocity.

His biggest weakness is his bland 94 mph 4-seamer. It can get some groundballs with a focus on low location, but a harsh characterization could call it dead zone. Its 37% usage against LHB, which is its exclusive role in the arsenal, is certainly too high. How far Olson can go is dependent on this pitch’s role: if it continues to be his most used pitch in the weak-side platoon matchup, he will struggle to level up.

The changeup is similarly nasty to the slider, with its -1 inches of IVB getting tons of swings and misses. He has the Snell approach with it - all down, nothing in the zone - but it fails to achieve the same contact suppression Blake manages. Perhaps the 4-seam’s emphasis on the lower third limits the value of their tunnel, but it’ll be difficult for him to dance with the heater up with its profile. Intriguingly, it dominated RHB in 15% usage for a 53% whiff rate and 29% ICR, something that it generally is not meant to do. If it can keep even half that success, the slider/changeup duo has the makings of a killer foundation that covers both sides of the plate.

The sinker is the second half of his plan against RHB, posting the top mark of 45% usage. Its dominant use in same-hand matchups is reminiscent of Tarik Skubal, who utilizes his sinker with even more frequency to completely stymie the opposition. For instance, Olson’s 2-steam didn’t allow a home run all year in 361 pitches despite contact rates over 90%. With such an underperforming fastball, I’m curious if he starts trying some more frontdoor sinkers against LHB, a tactic that his ace also incorporated with success this past year.

He struggles to locate his curveball that sweeps nearly a foot, and the results are as unimpressive as one may imagine. The strike rate is low, it doesn’t mitigate hard contact in typical Reese Olson fashion, and it is only average in getting whiffs. In fact, it allows an xWOBA over .400 against LHB, its intended target. The shape isn’t particularly interesting and it feels more like a reprieve for the hitter from more changeups and sliders than a surprise weapon. It may be downgraded from a member of the supporting cast to an extra in Reese’s 2025 feature film.

Olson has a clear three-pitch mix to build around in the slider, changeup, and sinker.

The Georgian’s clear issue is LHB, which causes him to throw far too many 4-seamers and curves. My solution? A low-vert cutter, which would fit into the rest of his low-carry repertoire well. His slider proves he can spin the ball well glove-side and it wouldn’t take much refinement to get superior results to the status quo. While researching this article, I saw Lance Brozdowski promoting a similar idea. I’d accuse him of stealing the idea, but he came up with it 18 months before I did. I’ll let him off the hook this time.

Conclusion

I’m curious if Olson continues to pursue a low zone rate approach to take advantage of his great chase rates. He managed to keep his walk rate in check with the strategy in 2024 (7%, half a point below league average) while also preventing hard contact better than almost anyone. Without any improvement, Olson definitely will be able to run a 3.75 ERA in Comerica (the newest projection system, OOPSY, predicts a 3.79 ERA), but a true third option for LHB would push him consistently into 3.50 territory and below. Out of all the pitchers I plan to cover, this is clearly the safest.

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TJStats’ Pitching Summary

Despite making just three starts and finishing only 19 innings, there’s clear upside in young South Side starter Sean Burke. He brings a well-constructed four-pitch set from a high slot and 7 feet of extension to the table with the intention of overpowering hitters in the zone. Burke’s archetype demonstrates a consistent trend in the White Sox organization to prioritize large, tall pitchers; other notable names include recently traded Garrett Crochet, top prospect Noah Schultz, and if you want to go back a few years, Chris Sale.

Pitch Mix

His fastball is the selling point, with the potential to consistently overwhelm hitters at the top of the zone. It comes in at a hard 96 with elite carry (18 inches of vertical break) and his long limbs enable it to feel a lot hotter than that. He has already demonstrated the intention to pound it up, which is always a good sign for a young pitcher in a historically questionable pitching development environment. The pitch sees 3 more inches of carry than a hitter would expect from his slot, which is a hefty amount of deception. It is already a well above-average offering.

Sean Burke’s fastball is well above-average from its great carry on elite extension.

The slider comes in at a hard 87 and was the breadwinner in his few MLB outings. It runs a tight 10.5-inch tunnel with the 4-seam, which gives it the propensity to be hit hard, but also the opportunity to reap great swing-and-miss rewards. Its outlier vertical break makes it likely to be above-average in the long run and it too is already aggressively used over the plate. It probably overperformed a bit in his small sample with a 39% CSW and 43% whiff rate on poor location, but it should still play if it elicits whiffs above a 35% clip. If properly kept down to play off the 4-seam, it could soar to staggering heights in the chase and whiff departments.

The curve was a prototypical strike stealer that also could mitigate damage well with its great drop. He turned to it frequently in September and it gives a very different vibe than the rest of his overpowering, beat-you-to-the-spot arsenal. My one critique would be to push it to 81 or 82 mph and adopt a true 12-6 feel. Its current variation with 5.5 inches of run doesn't fit either curveball camp, so I think he should go all-in on what's working (the 19% whiff rate on it certainly wasn't). His slider demonstrates he can throw a mile or two harder than the average on his breaking stuff, and a hard curveball will often allow him a head start in the count.

The changeup has fantastic upside with the shape of Garrett Crochet’s slowball (7.5 inches of vert, 16 inches of run) at the same extension. Unfortunately, Burke does not have the gift of throwing it 91 - a meager 85 will have to do - but it will undoubtedly play a key role against LHB if he wants to succeed. It gets great separation from the fastball and can be lethal down in the zone when the 4-seam is right upstairs. If he can be confident enough with it to use it 1 out of 5 times against LHB, I think Burke is set to be the frontline guy for a team that desperately needs one.

Conclusion

There are a lot of possible outcomes here. If he can locate his 4-seam up and his changeup and slider down, he may eat everyone up with ease to a 3.50 ERA. If his 4-seam is all over the place and he keeps his changeup at the 6% usage it was in ‘24, he will get knocked around with his mix that only has 12 inches of width to it. I’d forecast an ERA just north of 4 composed of some stellar starts that get you dreaming, but also abysmal ones that are just as frequent with pitches all over the zone and the outfield grass. For a one-line comparison, Burke gives me the vibes of old White Sock Dylan Cease from the very early days of his career, without the same echelon of stuff to look forward to.

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Max Bay’s Dead Zone Visualization App

Welcome to my third annual Top 50 player list! As always, it’s split into two parts and is predicated on expected prorated performance (i.e., injuries are not considered, except in the most extreme circumstances). While this may be controversial, a player’s “injury proneness” can flip on a dime, and unlike their actual results, I have no access to, or the ability to interpret their medical records. My metrics of choice are fWAR for position players and rWAR for pitchers, because I believe they are the best representations of a player’s production regardless of skill set throughout a given year.

A new addition to this year’s list is the prior year’s ranking in both the prorated (designated “P”) and total (“T”) sections. They will be next to the “previous rank,” which indicates where I put the player in question on my list before 2024. If a player’s prorated rank does not qualify (DNQ), that means they didn’t accumulate 377 PA or 122 IP last season, the requirement to be eligible for that section in my annual recap article. Otherwise, results could be easily skewed by small samples. There is no such restriction on total WAR performance, which is self-explanatory. The results you see are what you get.

A couple more things: when I mention xWOBA, unless otherwise stated, it will be the pull-adjusted version via PitcherList, not BaseballSavant. In certain cases, there is a very large discrepancy, so don't be confused. Also, I’ve made a graphic for easier perusing if you want to skip to a ranking you find particularly harsh or interesting. Half of it is empty because it’s only the top 25 so far, of course. I hope you find the time to read through the whole thing regardless! 8,621 words and all.

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My rankings if you want to skip somewhere specific. Big thanks to @TJStats for providing the foundation of the code from his pitching summary article.

1. Shohei Ohtani - 30 - Los Angeles Dodgers - DH/SP (Previous Rank: 7, P: 3, T: 3)

After a brief demotion in 2024 because of his DH-only status, the King of Baseball returns to his throne. Although Witt or Judge could overthrow Shohei at their best, an average two-way season for Sho can outperform a great season from either of them. One can question his ability to return to his great pitching form following surgery, but he has relied less and less on his four-seam over time, making a potential velocity drop manageable. The key concern is his command, which has struggled to even be average in any year of his career. In particular, it’s a recurring issue with his splitter, which regressed as a direct consequence in 2023. His volatility was clearly evident; the strike and in-zone rate plummeted to unsustainable levels with its weak chase rate, and its usage plunged to fringe territory below 10%. Interestingly, the shape of the pitch continues to shift every year, generally by imparting more vertical (sometimes denoted as IVB) and horizontal break on it, which could only compound the problem.

On the more promising side, a pitch to look out for is his sinker. He used it 10% of the time against RHB after a successful trial run in 2022, and it elicited ideal contact (also called ICR) just 12% of the time, where 38% or so is average. Its groundball frequency was a Holmes-esque 81%, and offers him a suitable replacement for his troublesome cutter (47% ICR). It’s also topical, in view of the Dodgers adding one to Glasnow’s arsenal last season with satisfactory returns. His sweeper should remain ironclad as his top weapon, and the fastball is effective if one can look past its high hard-hit rate with a tendency to stay low in the zone. If the Boys in Blue can squeeze more out of his splitter and sinker to reduce the dependency on his 4-seam, he can reach another level of performance on the mound.

Offensively, there’s no hole in his game, and he seems to only continue to get better. He demonstrates immense power with 2nd-place finishes in barrel rate and average exit velocity (EV), and a 36% groundball rate (GB%) is absolutely incredible for how low his strikeout rate (K%) is, 22%. The latter is far from the old 30% mark he posted early on in his career, and it surprisingly hasn’t cost him anywhere else in his game, as best I can tell. Rather, he’s more aggressive early in counts, and people are willing to give him a pitch to work with instead of putting him on for the other heavy hitters lower in the order. Also, did I mention his 60 stolen base potential on elite efficiency, which allowed him to finish 2nd in baserunning value (BsR) across the entire league? While the move to the Dodgers helped his championship aspirations immensely, it may have helped his chance of individual accolades on both sides of the ball just as much.

2. Bobby Witt Jr. - 24 - Kansas City Royals - SS (Previous Rank: 13, P: 2, T: 2)

The debate between Witt and Judge at #2 was perhaps the toughest in the whole list, with each candidate utilizing completely different skill sets to get to the same elite echelon of performance. Aaron Judge had an absolutely absurd season, which will be covered in a moment, but I believe Witt had a more complete season, and I tend to favor more complete skill sets that allow for value on all sides of the ball. Witt finished 4th in wRC+, 14th in Fielding Run Value (FRV), and 15th in BsR, with the latter mark only being so low because of some extra trepidation on the bases. When one can argue a player’s biggest weakness is his baserunning while simultaneously being the FASTEST player in the sport according to Statcast sprint speed, the player you’re discussing is completely absurd. The gap between him and 2nd place is as large as the gap between 2nd and 15th (0.4 feet/sec), because of course it is.

As you may recall, my reasoning for not putting him inside the top 10 last year was his very low Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), at just -6. I’ve been a little cute above by including his FRV rather than his DRS, despite DRS being slightly more accurate for infielders than FRV. Although Witt’s 6 DRS is 12 runs better than last year’s mark, it’s still only half of his FRV. Either way, Witt certainly can't be considered a slouch at short.

Offensively, he’s a complete package. He managed to improve in almost every offensive metric, most notably, he’s hitting the ball 2 mph harder with a barrel rate 3% higher, while also possessing a K rate 2.5% lower than a year ago. His only real blemish with the bat is his mediocre record of pulling the ball (41st percentile in pulled flyball rate), limiting his (pull-adjusted) xWOBA to .402, but it’s no dealbreaker. I will say, though, that having that skill would probably be enough to put him #1. If he doesn't post 8 wins/650 PA this season, I'd be surprised.

3. Aaron Judge - 32 - New York Yankees - OF (Previous Rank: 1, P:1, T:1)

In any year between 2005 and 2021, Aaron Judge would be #1 by a wide margin, with the exception of maybe 2012-13 Trout, when he was at the pinnacle of his defensive and baserunning powers while also wielding a top-5 bat. Unfortunately, he is going up against a two-way player and a shortstop who's as close to early-career Mike Trout as one can get, so he finds himself 3rd instead. Offensively, there’s not much to say. His barrel rate was once again above 26% (2nd: 21.5%, Ohtani), average EV at 96 mph (2nd: Ohtani), and an xWOBA of .429 (only Soto, at .439, clears him). He crushes all types of pitches, doesn’t chase, and is in the 100th percentile in swing decisions (SEAGER) and 90th percentile EV. How in the world is he only #3?

The questions come defensively and on the bases. He has frequently manned center field the past three seasons, and while he was serviceable there in 2022 and 2023, the wear and tear is starting to show. He posted -3 FRV last season there, and he will only continue losing sprint speed as the years go on. The addition of Cody Bellinger will shift him back to RF, where he may be able to get a little more value in cruise control mode, but he surely won’t be rewinding the clock to the days before his toe injury. Judge's baserunning has never been stellar, and he has been risk-averse when choosing to swipe bags and take the extra base since signing his deal. So long as Judge continues to hit, nobody will mind these flaws. But if he starts struggling to catch the high heater, there won’t be much to fall back on to contribute as the guys above him.

4. Gunnar Henderson - 23 - Baltimore Orioles - SS (Previous Rank: 27, P: 8, T: 5)

ATC projects the young Oriole star as the third-best position player in 2025, and I believe it. He has managed to maintain great results despite some serious flaws: his groundball rate is a poor 47%, and his pulled flyball rate is far below league average, which caps his ability to exploit the short wall in right and once cost him dearly with the now-defunct Mount Walltimore in left. His great last year and a half have instead derived from great bat speed and plate discipline, while also showcasing solid baserunning (4 BsR) and defense (5 DRS) at perhaps the most important position on the field.

The plate discipline angle has been the most critical for Gunnar - he improved his SEAGER from the 36th percentile to the 89th, and was reflected across all pitch types. Given that it came at no concession of contact quality, he’s one step closer to being a complete offensive juggernaut. His comparatively weak second half (only a 5.2 fWAR/650 PA) was primarily from beating the ball into the ground, and it’ll be an ongoing battle that may be reminiscent of Julio Rodriguez’s. However, Julio never managed to hit the ball with the authority Gunnar has in this prolonged time frame, which can make up for almost any swing path deficiency (see: Soto, Juan). I’m betting on some improvement in those weak areas to take him into consistent 7+ win territory.

5. Juan Soto - 26 - New York Mets - OF (Previous Rank: 8, P: 6, T: 4)

There have always been two issues for Juan Soto, which will sound familiar to the man directly above him. First, his groundball rate, which created copious amounts of double plays with his well below-average sprint speed. This year, he dropped it by 7%, landing at the second-lowest mark of his career. Secondly, he raised his pull frequency from a mediocre 35% to a great 42%, a tremendous development for the courteous right-field line at the Stadium. Combined with a slightly more aggressive approach, Juan Soto was taking full advantage of the opportunity to hit in front of Aaron Judge. In 2024, he walked more than he struck out with a 20% barrel rate (4th), 109.9 mph 90th percentile EV (6th), and a .439 xWOBA (1st). Statcast’s projected stats, without considering pull rate, reckons his 2024 slashline should have been .323/.452/.673, which would be absolutely mental for any player, even one with the defensive questions of Soto. While I question whether the new groundball rate will stick with his VBA being almost identical, I think he might be able to preserve his more pull-happy tendencies.

That defense, unfortunately, caps his placement on the list. Although some pondered whether he had also made strides in the outfield early in the year, a myriad of mistakes have reassured people of what they already knew: Juan Soto is not a Gold Glove candidate, no matter what the lamestream media insists. His fielding still improved somewhat this year, finishing at -1 FRV, but that best-case scenario simply doesn’t come close to the defensive performances of Henderson or Judge, not to mention Witt. Soto’s speed is similarly graded as average in the best-case scenario; this year, he’s been at his worst when looking to take the extra base and is no threat to steal bases. It’s hard to say whether he will regain some proactivity with a new contract locked in, or if this is the new normal.

I’ve said for the last two years that Soto would get 15 years, $600 million. Only three of 28 insiders expected a contract that large or greater seven months ago, but it turns out even I heavily undercut things. My final prediction from the start of the offseason was 15 years, $750 million. Close enough. Hopefully, I can say the same about this placement in October.

6. Jose Ramirez - 32 - Cleveland Guardians - 3B (Previous Rank: 5, P: 14, T: 8)

I was extremely high on the top third baseman of this list a year ago, and while he did deliver a vintage performance, there were some concerning signs. He lost some of his trademark plate discipline, continuing a four-year-long downslide in SEAGER and a five-year-long uptick in chases to the 41st and 24th percentiles, respectively. Albeit those declines hadn’t presented themselves in his strikeout or walk rates in the past, they certainly did this year. His walk rate (BB%) was at its lowest in 8 seasons after dropping 3% from 2023, and his strikeout rate increased by 1.5% at the same time. The added aggression got him some extra contact, but his power remained in a similar lull with a 90th percentile EV that was worse than any year since 2020. The one benefit he got was more pulled flyballs, which he used to great effect by tying his career-high in home runs, 39. I don't see this level of power sticking around, though, and what does Ramirez without 30 homer upside look like? It may come sooner than you think.

The other surprising element was his baserunning, where he contributed more value than any other time in his career on the most stolen base attempts. His sprint speed has stabilized itself around the top quartile his whole career, but that may itself begin to decline entering his age-32 season. Going with it would conceivably be his defense, which is another healthy contributor to his well-rounded game.

I won't want to dramatize Ramirez’s decline after a season where he put up a .373 xWOBA, 6 baserunning runs above average, and 6 DRS. However, there are clear flaws opening up in his game that weren’t present during his prime. His position at #6 indicates the instability outside the top 5, with almost every player being either a) very young and volatile to project or b) an established player who has some key flaw in their game. Ramirez’s track record of success with a triple threat to produce (hitting, fielding, baserunning) gives him a leg up on the other contenders.

7. Mookie Betts - 32 - Los Angeles Dodgers - OF/SS/2B (Previous Rank: 3, P: 21, T: 34)

I called Betts the most complete offensive player in the majors on last year’s list by virtue of his outstanding foundation of skills. Though I would say he managed to retain that title, pacing for more than 6 fWAR/650 PA with a 150 wRC+ and more walks than strikeouts, some questions have begun to arise. His regression has been slow and clear so far: his sprint speed continues to fall, his pull rate plummeted to an uncharacteristically low 34%, a serious contributor to his power, and he showed a greater propensity to chase after already taking a more passive in-zone approach two years prior. The lowest pull rate of his career is the largest cause for concern, but I have the belief that it’ll return in due time. Otherwise, Betts will be falling down the list very quickly.

Defensively, his move to shortstop appears to be justified, grading out at 4 DRS. I originally expected him back in the outfield full-time, but the signing of Conforto and the exportation of Gavin Lux secured a continued role in the infield for the time being. He's clearly weaker up the middle, but it's a harder position to fill, and he's not a Platinum Glove-level defender in right anymore.

Although it’d be unfair to say that Betts is aging out of the league, the clear step back in all three parts of the game indicates that his best years may already be behind him. Despite more contact than ever, the corresponding drop in results just doesn't justify consideration of a top-4 placing. If you wanted to be harsh about Betts’ aging curve, with a decline in his dynamic playmaking already in full swing, I could see him outside the top 10.

8. Kyle Tucker - 28 - Chicago Cubs - OF (Previous Rank: 15, P: DNQ, T: 39)

Tucker turned a new leaf last season, improving in almost every facet of the game to become a total offensive behemoth. However, I question how much of the progression was a product of his half-season sample size, given how drastic the improvements truly are. The most impactful change of them all came in his groundball rate: a whopping 10.5% decrease to the second-best mark in the league, 28%, according to FanGraphs. Only Betts was better, the gold standard. If it were to stick, a 45 HR/650 PA pace would be more than justifiable, but one has to question whether such a leap with no concessions in contact frequency is remotely reasonable to assume. Think Ronald Acuna’s miraculous 11% drop in K rate in 2023, for example.

His other area of improvement was his plate discipline, and that is much more likely to stick around. His SEAGER jumped from the 86th percentile to the 99th, while imitating former teammate Alex Bregman by walking more than he struck out for the first time. Most impressive was his chase rate, a minuscule 21%, second-best of all players with at least 300 PA, and better than other patient players like Judge and Soto. While I doubt he’s become Juan Soto with speed, made obvious by my ranking of him here, an improvement to the top decile in swing decisions would not be shocking.

On the defensive side of the ball, he was mediocre, where he’s likely to settle in the next few years, and his sprint speed was just 26 feet per second, scary close to lumbering first basemen. Regardless, he is slated to become at least a $400 million player next year with a season half as good as the last one, and he will be fully deserving of it. I suspect the Dodgers are positioning for him after the expiration of Conforto’s one-year deal, but almost every team that can afford the $40 million+ salary will be interested.

9. Paul Skenes - 22 - Pittsburgh Pirates - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 4, T: 15)

Paul Skenes may have exceeded expectations by performing at such a high level immediately upon promotion, but he also subverted them in how he did it. Although his 32% K rate was elite, I find his contact mitigation to be his greatest asset and paired with a deep and evolving arsenal, Skenes is about the safest bet you can get for a pitcher in modern times.

First, the fastball. There was a lot of discourse about how good his fastball was, considering the juxtaposition of a lackluster movement profile that casually sits at triple digits. So far, it’s been on the worse side of things; it gets hammered for a 44% ICR on just a 12% swinging strike rate, with extra punishment coming from LHB. He uses it more than 40% of the time against the weak-side platoon matchup while conceding ideal contact nearly half the time, and despite being hyper-aggressive with it in the zone in general, it only commands an above-average swing-and-miss percentage. With the amount of other weapons he has, I imagine he will turn to it less going forward.

His infamous splinker sees 25+% usage against hitters on both sides of the plate and has the holy trinity of pitch results. It elicits chases and whiffs at an incredible 44% and 30% clip, respectively, while conceding hard contact on less than 27% of balls in play. If that wasn’t good enough, the command is also immaculate, with a focus down in the zone, eliciting groundballs 72% of the time. Its success is in large part from its great tunneling with his other pitches, something that is universal in his arsenal but is especially prevalent here, and the absurd drop he can get out of it - more than 5 inches than expected based on his arm angle! All these factors make it the obvious candidate to be ramped up next season if he wants to decrease his 4-seam dependence.

The sinker drops 5 more inches than one would expect, an absurd amount.

His curve was his other key piece last year, thrown at a blistering 83 mph that still finds time to sweep over 7 inches. It is able to facilitate a 37% CSW and 35% ICR on 16% usage against LHB and 6% against RHB, which makes it a prime candidate to get a role upgrade. The only concern would be his command, which can occasionally be rocky with a swing rate that is not as far below league average as you may think.

His slider also limits contact effectively with a shockingly low 26% ICR from above-average rise that elicits lots of weak flyballs. It deceives fewer hitters than it should without a true bridge pitch for his very wide arsenal, but with such strong hard contact limitation on 24% usage, it’s hard to argue against it. With a new 85 mph sweeper in the last four starts of the year finding success, Skenes has the opportunity to explore a harder slider with less horizontal break to not step on the sweeper’s toes in run and velocity, and to tunnel even more effectively with his arm-side stuff.

He also messed with a changeup late in the year that has created a whopping 27% swinging strike rate, 54% whiff rate, and 25% ICR on 8% usage. He’s scarcely made a mistake locating it, and it's a clear piece for him to work on incorporating more into his arsenal for left-handed hitters. Given the 4-seam’s issues largely stem from LHB, it’s the most obvious pitch to make gains at the heater’s expense.

The amount a pitch gains in expected run value, courtesy of Maxwell Resnick’s app. ‘ST’ denotes the sweeper.

10. Tarik Skubal - 28 - Detroit Tigers - SP (Previous Rank: 41, P: 17, T: 10)

Skubal showed out and showed up beyond my wildest expectations in 2024. I was the only man to include him on a top 50 list last season of those I tracked, proving I may still have some semblance of evaluating pitching talent after the Bobby Miller incident. My reasoning was simple - I believed in the four-seam and changeup growth he displayed in his abridged 2023, in part because it was a symbiotic relationship, and his great all-around 5-pitch mix that showed no clear weakness. Some called his success a byproduct of his weak schedule, which sounds like something Billy Ripken would say to fill time on MLB Network. Instead, I deemed that stretch “him doing what he was supposed to.”

My one concern was whether his velocity would stick around, but after gaining 1-2 mph across the board this year, it’s safe to say that’s been dispelled. His slider, in particular, leveled up, going from a 13.5% called strike rate to 20% against RHP with a unique backdooring approach. The usage against LHP dropped massively concurrently, instead turning to sinkers 55% of the time, creating an ICR of 18% and a ground ball rate of 65%. His changeup continues to return swing-and-miss which is unbelievable, and his fastball, once considered a weakness in his arsenal, now returns elite results thanks to the other parts of his mix and its subsequently diminished role. I’m not sure how long he can sustain this level of flamethrowing, but I am confident in saying that Skubal is currently one of the two best pitchers in baseball.

11. Yordan Alvarez - 27 - Houston Astros - DH (Previous Rank: 9, P: 25, T: 21)

Yordan is the pinnacle of consistency in both rank and performance, despite 2024 bringing the second straight year of declining power for him. He opted to be more swing-happy this year with a corresponding focus on contact, which allowed him to carry over similar overall results from past years with less reliance on the home run. His strikeout rate was brought down to a staggering 15%, nearly 10% lower than what it was just 3 years ago in 2021, and is the ideal scenario when making a contact for power exchange. I’m not sure if I agree with the approach shift long-term regardless, considering it may just lead to more double plays for the same level of production in the best case, and may cost him contact quality in the worst. As much as we can’t pin the entirety of his 25-point xWOBA loss on it, it certainly isn’t innocent, either. Either way, it’s not something to seriously worry about yet, given he just clocked in another 5.5 fWAR/650 PA season. Just stop playing him in the outfield with his -5 FRV in less than 50 games worth of innings. Those knees are hanging on by a thread.

12. Jackson Merrill - 21 - San Diego Padres - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 18, T: 21)

No, your eyes don't deceive you, and no, this is not a typo. I have Jackson Merrill as the 12th-best player in the majors next year, and I’m not sure it’s even that hot of a take. Of the three premier rookies who debuted - Merrill, Langford, and Chourio - Merrill was clearly the best throughout the whole year, and he is far too developed for his age to put him any lower. To illustrate that, here’s a comparison:

The players look pretty similar, right? Player A is better on the bases, while Player B is better defensively. They both play a premium position as well. Player B is Jackson Merrill in 2024. Player A? Bobby Witt in 2023, two years Merrill's senior and one more experienced. Given Witt was a consensus top-20 player entering 2024, and I personally placed him 13th, Merrill is right at home in this ranking.

Offensively, Merrill has an elite line-drive approach. His 36° vertical bat angle (VBA) swing path enables great results on his high contact rates, a trait reminiscent of the man we just compared him to. These factors prevent his swing-happy approach from being detrimental, as indicated by his 63rd percentile SEAGER. In the second half, he ranked top-10 in fWAR, shoulder-to-shoulder with guys like Juan Soto and Jose Ramirez, despite far fewer opportunities, and was great in all phases of the game. His bat especially improved, pushing his hard-hit rate to well above average and his sweet spot rates to over 40%, often with stretches near 45%. Over a full season, he would likely lead the league in the latter, emphasizing the veteran feel for the barrel he already possesses in less than 600 MLB PAs.

Defensively, he was a stalwart. Unlike fellow freshmen Langford and Chourio, he manned center field as a converted shortstop and showed no signs of growing pains. His 10 FRV was elite amongst 2024 players at the position, thanks to great range and an arm that placed in the 90th percentile. On the bases, he wasn’t as aggressive as he possibly could have been, stealing just 16 bases on 84% success. In the unlikely event Luis Arraez is traded, he will get the opportunity to do grave damage with his legs from the lead-off spot. Otherwise, he will bat 3rd or 4th, and barring a disastrous falloff, Merrill will be the most valuable player for the Padres next year and many to follow.

13. Elly de la Cruz - 23 - Cincinnati Reds - SS (Previous Rank: UR, P: 15, T: 9)

Some may view this as an aggressive ranking, but Elly ranked 8th in fWAR/650 PA in 2024 amongst qualified hitters, a great achievement. EDLC possesses the golden combination of a high floor, from his great SS defense and baserunning with a capable stick, and an absurdly high ceiling, thanks to an offensive profile that isn’t close to being filled out.

Look no further than last season, where at age 22, he was able to cut his K% by 2.5 points, improve his BB% by 2 points, his SEAGER by 2.5 points, and his Barrel% by 3 points. His GB% was down 8, and in Cincinnati, that has a larger impact than almost anywhere else. He continues to struggle to hit from the right side, but a 200-point improvement in OPS is a welcome sight. From the left side, he already swings it like a star with a .876 OPS. His xWOBA is a paltry .307, but that doesn’t consider his outlier sprint speed, which gives him some boost on the groundballs that he often puts into play. Nonetheless, he needs to seriously correct his approach against breaking balls, the one major sticking point for him before he ascends to the next level. He runs whiff rates over 40% against them, simultaneously not punishing them when he does square it up. That can only mean one thing - an even higher share of them will likely await him in the future.

Elly’s growth may be more multiplicative than any other player. As he takes more walks and puts more balls in play, he will give himself more opportunities to swipe bags, something he took the chance to do in over half the opportunities allotted to him. A 100 stolen-base season is certainly not out of the question, and neither is 40 home runs, a skill set that is comparable to few other than former Red Eric Davis. How many players can be so flawed, and yet so close to being so great? It is quite possible that this ranking seems silly in June in either direction, which is why doing this is so fun.

14. Francisco Lindor - 31 - New York Mets - SS (Previous Rank: 17, P: 7, T: 6)

I suspect people will have Lindor much higher, but I don't see a massive adjustment to make him go up. He has a magnificent floor, thanks to great shortstop defense (12 FRV) and 30 stolen base upside, but I question whether he can return elite offensive campaigns consistently. He’s gone the way of Brandon Nimmo, trading some contact and discipline for power, but it’s far too subtle of a change to believe this amount of improvement in results will stick. His xWOBA did reach its highest point since tracking began on both PitcherList and Savant thanks to his new aggressive mindset, yet he will turn 31 next season. I can’t buy a repeat of his best season by fWAR/650 at 31. 6 fWAR would be a fine year for him, I think.

15. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 27 - Atlanta Braves - OF (Previous Rank: 2, P: DNQ, T: 384)

Ronald’s season was cut short by a torn ACL, but the third of the season he did manage to play reveals that some of his magical 2023 may have been a mirage. He was able to match his great swing decisions of the prior campaign, but lacked the contact, or the quality, to take advantage of it. His K rate reverted straight back to career norms at 24%, and his usually great power completely evaporated from his bat, both in his 90th percentile EV and barrel rate. He continues to be a negative on the defensive end with his troublesome knee, and his sprint speed has gone from elite to just above average in three years, despite preserving gaudy stolen base totals. His groundball rate was higher than ever, at 52%, and the hard stuff, which he has made his primary target in his best seasons, gave him fits. There’s a lot to dislike for Acuna, as he regressed from clear MVP to mediocre outfielder in just one offseason.

I suspect Ronnie was playing through something, as I find it hard to believe that everything could cave in on him at once. I have concerns about returning to his 2023 ceiling, where he mashed balls at unbelievable contact rates, but the typical floor and ceiling of his career should be sound for now. The only season recently comparable to this one, 2022, still managed to precede his greatest season, after all. I choose to hedge my bets in the top 15.

16. Jackson Chourio - 21 - Milwaukee Brewers - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 49, T: 54)

Jackson Chourio is the Truth. Sorry, Paul Pierce! He has seen a shockingly steady incline in his rolling 200 PA (non pull-adjusted) xWOBA over the course of the season, starting in the doldrums of sub-.280 values to now surpassing .400. Over that time, his walk rate has stayed stable, while his K% has declined at a similar gradient from over 25% to a great 15%. He’s hitting the ball 3 mph harder than he did at the start of the year, and with swiftly declining groundball frequencies, Chourio looks like the full package offensively.

His 97th percentile sprint speed gives him 40 SB potential, and he already plays solid defense in the corner, with the possibility to be serviceable in center in an emergency. Like Witt last year, I feel like I may be too conservative, despite this likely being the high watermark for his placing amongst industry Top 50/100 lists. He’s sometimes referred to as a “baby Acuna,” and the skill set he’s showcased thus far may make that comparison prophetic.

Chourio’s quality of contact progressed continuously for five months before dropping off at the end.

17. Corey Seager - 30 - Texas Rangers - SS (Previous Rank: 12, P: 24, T: 30)

I was one of the lowest on Seager last year, believing that he simply hit the jackpot on a 95th or 99th percentile outcome, and so I’m not as surprised as some at his regression in results. However, his great approach remains intact, so I am holding firm. Seager’s success is predicated on elite hitting from one-of-one strike zone control, while hitting the ball in the air with authority on high contact rates. Of these traits, Seager either stood pat or improved in all of them in 2024, despite far less eye-watering results.

We can start with SEAGER, the plate discipline stat that bears his name, where he put up another great performance in the 94th percentile. His barrel rate, pull rate, and groundball rate remained level, while increasing his pulled flyball rate from the bottom 25% of the league to the top 30%. His quality of contact was top-10 yet again amongst players with as many PAs, in addition to remaining a capable shortstop. Amidst talks of being moved to either corner infield spot, he quietly put up 5 DRS in 120 games there, but I, like many others, question whether he can remain there by the next year or two. His sprint speed is already in the bottom 10% of the league, and his arm is in the bottom 25. But even as a 1B or DH, he’d be a slightly worse version of Yordan Alvarez, which is no insult.

18. Julio Rodriguez - 24 - Seattle Mariners - OF (Previous Rank: 11, P: 61, T: 58)

Some may expect Julio to be ranked lower, but after a third season that he will hope to soon forget, there’s less to be concerned about than one may expect. His entire regression is from an inability to punish breaking balls, with a 4 mph drop in exit velocity against them. Interestingly, he concurrently improved against fastballs, providing a .400 xWOBA and the majority of his power against them.

When I said that the problems were quarantined to that specific part of his game, I was serious. They don't pertain to his swing decisions, with a career-best 95th percentile SEAGER and normal K and BB rates for his career, nor his groundball rates, which also were at a career-best. His VBA increased by a degree to 33॰, giving him more power potential at Safeco, where balls go to die. His defense remains great in center field, and his baserunning still provides top-10 upside. One also has to remember he’s just 23; it’s not uncommon for a player so young to fall flat in one particular way to curb their production.

Remember, despite all the struggles he faced this year, he still finished 61st in fWAR/650. That’s a damn good floor, and the ceiling is top-5. I think it wouldn’t be unreasonable to leave him around the top 10 and just write off the year entirely, frankly. Unfortunately for my list, Rodriguez's prior placing hinged on the possibility of his 2022 and 2023 second halves extending to a full season, which seems more unlikely than ever. Hence, his placing here.

19. Garrett Crochet - 25 - Boston Red Sox - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 32, T: 42)

Crochet’s second half was first a soap opera, then a continually more depressing game of load management only akin to that of an oft-injured NBA star, but don't let that distract you from the incredible skills he possesses. Up to July 6th (the last time he threw more than 90+ pitches, a “true” starter’s workload these days), he had 146 strikeouts in 105 innings, with a 3.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 35% K rate, 5% BB rate, 17% swinging strike rate, 46% groundball rate, and 36% ICR. Other than 3 straight starts in late April, he went without any clunkers either. Consistent, incredible performance built on straight gas from a comically large 6' 6" frame.

His fastball destroys hitters in the zone at 97 mph with 7 feet of extension, only getting hit hard an average amount; his sweeping slider makes left-handed hitters almost unplayable against him, and his cutter brings the arsenal together perfectly with 4 inches of horizontal break, an amount that will induce tons of whiffs at 92 mph. For the most part, he actually stayed away from the sweeper, making him a two-pitch pitcher with similarly great results. That two-pitch priority would concern me slightly with the trajectory of like-minded arms Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon, but he proved open-minded towards the end of the year.

That open-mindedness led Crochet down the same road as Skenes, first trying to reincorporate his sweeper, then tinkering with a slowball. Look out for the latter specifically, which tunnels well with his fastball on a similar release angle and clocked at a scathing 91 mph. The location is erratic, but if he zones it, there will be no issue. In addition, he added a sinker, which is even nastier. It’s 98 mph with 16 inches of arm-side run, and was immediately competitive for his highest whiff pitch. That’s hard to do, by the way, considering all of them are above 30%! Unbelievable.

Garrett's approach is reminiscent of a high-leverage reliever, the role he filled a year ago, except that he can maintain that level for a full six innings. For at least half a season, that is. The only other hesitation is if he can go without getting crushed on such a heavy diet of fastball variants that live in the zone for 180 innings. In the end, I’m confident the Red Sox will make the necessary changes to avoid the worst of it (specifically, more sinkers and changeups), and the unicorn amount of groundballs he’s able to garner relative to his uber-aggressive mentality will allow him to put up a 3 ERA season with volume.

20. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 26 - San Diego Padres - OF (Previous Rank: 6, P: 35, T: 87)

I was the most optimistic about Tatis last year, and although he did significantly improve, there are just too many good players next season for him to maintain his high placing on name alone. His offense returned to near-peak levels, with a .372 xWOBA on a new-best 21% K rate, but the groundballs remain far too plentiful, diminishing his power projection considerably. 4 out of his 5 MLB seasons have seen a 46+ GB%, which makes it hard to be productive for anyone to be productive outside of the likes of Juan Soto.

The big sticking point is his defense. After a 12 FRV and 27 DRS season in 2023, he posted just 1 FRV and 0 DRS this past year. DRS is more volatile than FRV, but both agree in this case. He’s been mid. His arm strength has remained top tier, but his sprint speed is down 1 ft/sec from last year, which has hampered both his range and baserunning, making it his first year where he was a net-negative on the basepaths. After going 25/29 and 29/33 in steal attempts in 2021 and 2023, he was just 9/12 this year. Is it an isolated down year or a business decision to aid long-term self-preservation? Time will tell. Tatis remains high for his great offensive upside, but he seems to be more in the direction of a “middle-of-the-order basher” than “5-tool star.”

21. Austin Riley - 28 - Atlanta Braves - 3B (Previous Rank: 18, P: 103, T: 165)

A reprisal of a ranking this high may be surprising to some, but Riley was as good as ever under the hood last season. His xWOBA has remained between .350 and .380 for the past four years and likewise between .360 and .380 for “Savant” xWOBA. His barrel frequency in 2024 was the 2nd-highest in that time frame, at just under 15%, he hit the ball harder than ever at over 93 mph, and generated the fewest groundballs. The major flaw was his ability to hit fastballs, posting a .280 wOBA on the pitch, despite a .370 xWOBA and a good track record against them in his career. The one demerit is weak defense - his DRS dropped into the negatives for the first full-length season of his career. With some defensive improvement and regression to the offensive mean, I believe there’s nothing to worry about with Austin as he enters what should be his peak seasons.

22. Corbin Carroll - 24 - Arizona Diamondbacks - OF (Previous Rank: 23, P: 73, T: 47)

It looked like a lost season for Carroll after a putrid first half, which included just a 79 wRC+ and a measly 5 home runs in 93 games. He bounced back in a big way in the second half, though, silencing any doubters with a 147 wRC+. He opted for a more aggressive approach that created more strikeouts, but also offered a .300 ISO, 7% more flyballs, 7% more pulled balls, and 18% more hard-hit balls than his first half, according to FanGraphs. It should be noted that the turnaround first showed its head in June, but Carroll’s second half verified the old moniker “form is temporary, class is permanent." Carroll remains a top player, and his second half, which was 7th amongst all position players in fWAR, proved it.

In addition to his offensive turnaround, he made significant jumps defensively. After a -2 FRV season from a weak arm and only above-average range in left, he managed to improve his range enough to be a positive defender while spending half his time in center field. He continued being exceptional on the bases, with more than 11 runs generated above the average, despite 16 fewer stolen base attempts. I still question whether the power from 2023 and the second half of 2024 will stick around, but he deserves recognition for overcoming early-season adversity to, at least temporarily, elevate his game. His overall 2024 performance was remarkably similar to his rookie season and indicates he is about a top-20 player going forward.

23. Zack Wheeler - 34 - Philadelphia Phillies - SP (Previous Rank: 20, P: 23, T: 14)

(Father) Time stops for no one, although Wheeler’s dependability may make one question it as his 35th birthday looms in late May. There are some subtle signs of his aging already, with a loss of half a tick on both his fastball and sinker, which, while minor, continues a downward trajectory worth 2 mph from the days he sat 97 in 2021. His fastball maintained great results with its consistent location at the top of the zone, and his sinker used a new shape, sacrificing some VAA for 2 more inches of horizontal break. The adjustments fought off some of the regression from a year ago to get it back to its 2021-22 form, but it lacks the same deception that earned it 50% chase rates year after year. Eno’s new Stuff+ model validates this, indicating a drop of 1.5 standard deviations in effectiveness over the last three years. In practical terms, that means a descent from the "platonic ideal" of sinkers to simply well above average.

The new splitter tunnels well with the rest of his arsenal, making me question how necessary his problematic curve remains. [Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App]

His sweeper saw improvement, but its location was not up to Zack Wheeler’s usual standards. Part of that is explicable by his choice to drop its horizontal break by 4 inches, enhancing its tunnel with the fastball, and the results justified the change. He also added some extra carry to his cutter, which was a recurring problem for him last year in its first deployment. It doesn’t rival the sinker, but it performs well and takes pressure off his curveball, which continues to get demolished. It's his most unique pitch out of hand, which makes it easy to hit despite very low zone rates, and there’s reason to believe it’ll be heavily downgraded in priority moving forward from the cutter’s success. His splitter also helps make the curve obsolete, finding great success in its debut season. It has a Snell-esque propensity to find the bottom of the zone with great effect: a 40% whiff rate with a .140 xWOBA will do the trick. I guess you can teach an old dog new tricks, after all.

24. Jacob deGrom - 36 - Texas Rangers - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: DNQ, T: 591)

The deGrominator is back. After missing all but 90 innings in 2022 and 2023, deGrom returned for a handful of starts at the tail end of 2024. While many may expect full deGromination next year after great success, I’m not so convinced. Here’s why.

First, his velocity was down 2 mph on both his slider and fastball, which usually makes up ~90% of his usage. Correspondingly, they are down 8% and 10% in swinging strike rate, respectively, and got crushed. This is all in a limited sample, but that gets to the second point: he will turn 37 in June. How many pitchers regain velocity at that age? Everyone responds to Tommy John surgery differently, but the odds are stacked against him to push his slider farther than a still-blistering 90 mph. For reference, it was his lowest fastball velocity since 2019, and his lowest slider velocity since 2017. He was dominant in those years, but not any more so than Skubal or Skenes year-long, or Crochet during his great run of form in late Spring, for that matter. Jake kicked it into overdrive in the early 2020s when his 4-seam and slider began to sit 99 and 92, but so did his injury troubles. While he missed 10 starts between 2015 and 2020, he's been absent for 93 since. If deGrom wants to actually play more than a full season of baseball, this is the velocity you’re probably gonna get.

deGrom’s fastball remains extremely unique in its approach to the plate despite diminished velocity [Max Bay’s Dead Zone App]

That said, deGrom isn’t going to be some bum. He was always making this list because he is, at worst, an older, better Spencer Strider. I could see him working more changeups and curves into the fold to help win the weak-side platoon matchup against Father Time, but I’m ranking him with the assumption he remains a two-pitch pitcher.

25. Wyatt Langford - 23 - Texas Rangers - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 98, T: 115)

If my heart won out over my head, Flyin’ Wyatt would have been on the list last year. But prospect evaluation is not my forte, so his debut on the list comes a year later instead. One can’t talk about Langford without mentioning his insane minor league stint, which even put him on the radar of the Rangers when replacing Adolis Garcia during the 2023 World Series. Despite just 44 games of pro ball, and 17 over High-A, he managed a .360/.480/.677 (1.157 OPS) slashline with 12 SB on 15 attempts, 10 HR, and a walk per game. He also plays a capable LF, which made him a five-tool monster immediately after he left the University of Florida for the Arizona Complex League. The only question was whether he could sustain his play against upper-level or major-league pitching, and how fast he could adapt to any struggles. In 2024, he proved his mental resilience in spades.

Despite most of his season not being eye-popping, it remained serviceable on the low power numbers he could generate. The long sessions in the weight room managed to finally earn some results for him in September; a 180 wRC+ on a 13% barrel rate and a reasonable .324 BABIP will certainly play. His pull rates remained outstanding, and with his good flyball rates, he got to really benefit from his heavy-pulled flyball approach. One specific case here.

My confidence in Langford was certainly aided by this stint, but my focus is more on his overall stability in hitting profile that is akin to a seasoned outfielder like Mookie Betts or Aaron Judge. When comparing him to fellow rookie Jackson Chourio, the difference is stark. Langford already ranks in the 91st percentile of SEAGER (Chourio ranks in the 58th), 71st in pulled flyballs (Chourio ranks 30th), and 63rd in barrel rate (50th). Langford is able to take more walks with his more selective approach, and given that he will likely hit 2nd or 3rd in the years to come, he’ll be able to match Chourio’s stolen base totals in the long run (their baserunning value is already identical!) I can’t give Wyatt the edge over Jackson yet, with only a month of top-caliber play, but there’s no reason to believe it won’t rear its head again by the middle of ‘25.

Here’s another way to evaluate his five tools: of the 23 qualified hitters with more bat speed, only Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Bobby Witt Jr., and William Contreras boast a lower strikeout rate. In addition, the only players with the speed of Langford are the aforementioned Witt and Elly de la Cruz, offering 40 stolen base upside. All told, he can hit for power, runs at a 98th-percentile pace, plays above-average defense, has great contract frequencies, and manages elite swing decisions. After just 177 games in pro ball, Wyatt Langford already has demonstrated the skills to be a top-25 player next season.

Conclusion

That’s all for part one. Part two, with players ranked 26-50, will be out in about a month if all goes well. Various “SP to Watch” articles will also be posted in between to keep content going. Hope you enjoyed!

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Sources

FanGraphs

BaseballReference

PitcherList

BaseballSavant

Robert Orr’s “Realestmuto” Dashboard

SwingGraphs

Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App/Article

Michael Rosen’s Pitch Plot

Max Bay’s Dead Zone App

TJStats’ Pitching Summary code (for ranking graphic)

Welcome to the first installment of my new series in the lead-up to the 2025 season, “SPs to Watch.” The goal of this series is to do shorter articles on interesting pitchers that aren’t necessarily worth pages and pages of analysis. The horror! I’m trying my best to make these players fairly obscure because calling Kumar Rocker or Bailey Ober an “SP to Watch” is akin to MLB calling Lawrence Butler a breakout candidate. One may consider Kutter notable, but I’d say he’s comfortably the most well-known player that I’m including. Strong candidates that have been covered in other articles, like Emmet Sheehan and Landen Roupp (both from Taking Over the Twins), won't be part of it either.

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Crawford’s situation is unique because, in an era of increasing organization specialization, his Red Sox may have become the most dogmatic. In the modern era of pitch selection the 4-seam fastball, the quintessential pitch in baseball, has seen waning use. But while many teams have modestly tuned back 4-seam usage for strong secondaries, the Red Sox have taken a sledgehammer to it. Tanner Houck is the philosophy’s poster child, dropping his troublesome heater’s usage from nearly 40% to zero in 3 years, and other notable starters like Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello also throw nearly nothing hard and straight in 2024. New free agent signing Walker Buehler may see a similar adjustment with his 4-seam issues, yet Kutter Crawford might be the one who can profit the most from such a revision next season.

One could save some time and address the way to fix Kutter Crawford as Nyanasaur on Twitter did here. For those who can’t access the Tweet, he is politely asking Mr. Crawford to stop throwing it down the middle, because it’s the only area of the chart where he has a wOBA allowed above .350. It, of course, is .571, higher than any individual hitter’s season in history. When he throws it down the middle, it’s worse than prime, roided-out Barry Bonds. That’ll make it difficult to perform. Nonetheless, I’ll take the more nuanced approach by analyzing his repertoire in detail.

Pitch Breakdown

The 4-seam fastball doesn’t seem so bad at first, with its elite 19.1 inches of induced vertical break (IVB), but when one adjusts for his extreme over-the-top slot, the rise only comes out to about average. With hefty usage at the top of the zone at a below-average 92.5 mph, it gets completely demolished with only mediocre deception. I’d consider it a “dead zone” pitch all things considered, and he can certainly do better. A perfect Red Sox project.

Kutter’s kutter [sic] is great, which is fitting. It gets solid rise like the fastball, but the calling card is the 5.5 inches of sweep, inducing lots of swing-and-miss and weak contact. The sweeper uses that cutter tunnel to great success, running an 80th-percentile chase rate. It can leak high in the zone, but it manages to stay above the barrel all the same and induces flyballs nonetheless. He appears to have a better feel for his pitches with glove-side movement, which helps explains why the heater falls so flat. If he wants to drop his heater, these two pitches will be the ones picking up the most slack.

He can weaponize that supination preference with his splitter, normally a pitch with lots of arm-side movement, to make it his best pitch. The lack of arm-side movement reminds me of Logan Webb’s changeup in how it can deceive hitters, with both moving 4 inches less than the average in their respective pitch group. This lack of run gives the added benefit of making it more handedness agnostic, a trait that makes it a lethal offering when paired with its 5 extra inches of ride relative to the typical splitter. In 2024, it was consistently great against LHB in 12% usage, while being more “boom or bust” against righties with crazy high whiff and hard contact rates. The sample against RHB was just 53 pitches, so I imagine more usage would make it look like a more appealing option. In contrast, the pitch floundered last year when it was 2 inches more typical in both directions, so Kutter’s movement towards ingenuity helped him bring it to life.

The curveball is a 77 mph looper with lots of drop and has performed well in low frequencies. The 32% CSW and 29.6% ICR aren’t half bad against LHP only - I’d expect some eventual use against RHB as well. While the velocity feels a little soft, and the strike rate a little low, it can limit swings surprisingly well. I think he can be more aggressive with it to squeeze out more strikes from bats on shoulders.

One additional thing to note is how his velocity reacted to his career-high workload last season. A jump from 129 to 183 innings coincided with a velocity drop of 1 mph in the fastball and cutter, 1.5 mph for the sweeper, and 2 mph with the curveball. His strikeout rate correspondingly dropped 2.5%, despite better pitch selection and better command. Any recovery of velocity would allow him to elevate his game that much further, especially for his cutter.

A summary of Kutter Crawford’s season, demonstrating the strong performance of his cutter and splitter in particular. Template courtesy of @TJStats on Twitter.

Conclusion

While it’s not likely he will drop the 4-seam entirely this year, I’d be shocked if the usage remained above 25%. The cutter/sweeper/splitter core is both effective and unique, and the curveball should be able to fill any gaps. If he continues on the typical Red Sox fastball mitigation trajectory, I’d predict his ERA falls below 3.75, more than a half run of improvement. It’s hard to overstate how much I feel the 4-seam stifled the rest of his arsenal from shining, and with the right adjustments, he can be a very dependable starter.

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Sources

PitcherList

FanGraphs

BaseballSavant

TJStats

Another season being completed necessitates another retrospective of the top 50 MLB player lists that were put together in the preseason prior. While it’s always fun to see which player hot takes came true and which common perceptions fell flat, it also gives me a convenient method to review my own work and find improvements to my own thought process. This year, I’ll take a deep dive into my new way to determine how controversial (or "contrarian") a list is, and an analysis on whether young players are actually more volatile to rank than older ones. Before anything else, though, here's a rundown of the rankers featured in the analysis. Links to the accompanying videos/posts are included with their name.

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Returning Rankers

Me - As one would hope.

GiraffeNeckMarc, FoolishBaseball - A YouTuber who releases his list every Christmas with less than 48 hours of thought (for good reason!), and a Youtuber who might put in 48 days of thought. Despite the difference in time used, Marc was one of the best performers overall last year.

MLB Network/ESPN - The lists most widely scrutinized for dubious selections. Can’t say I disagree, frankly. Last year, they certainly didn’t beat the allegations, and The Shredder hasn’t been beating its own either.

PitcherList - One of my most referenced sites for research, and the list they put together last year was strong. I'd expect their strong contingent to hold their own again.

CBS - They joined MLB Network and ESPN with a forgettable performance last year, but generally have a better reputation. I’d hope for a better performance here.

New Rankers

Pesky, Robbie Hyde, Wilytics - Various up-and-coming baseball YouTubers 10 months ago that have seen great growth in the period since. All worth checking out, of course.

Ben Verlander - Like many other areas, his status as Justin Verlander’s brother gets him into the mix here. What he reaps from nepotism seems to know no bounds.

Peter Appel - A contributor to Just Baseball, a great site for prospect evaluation, with his list also being harshly debated on their podcast. It’s worth a listen just for the arguments that ensue. Bo Bichette is simply better than Marcus Semien, if you didn't know.

ATC - This list is cordoned off from the other lists, as it is a regressed aggregation of the top baseball projection systems and the best projection system overall. Think of it as the upper limit of what’s possible to project for us mere mortals.

Methodology

The lists are graded in two sections, prorated and total production. The prorated section, my preferred area, looks at the FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) generated by hitters per 650 plate appearances (PA), and BaseballReference WAR (rWAR) generated by pitchers per 180 innings (IP). My belief is that injuries are largely random, so trying to predict them is a worthless endeavor, while the WAR choices are personal preference. To qualify, one needs a certain amount of PA or IP (my default is 376.5 PA and 121.5 IP, ¾ of the MLB qualification definition) to avoid weird extrapolation from small samples. To counteract that, though, is the total section, which uses straight output. Spencer Strider pitches 9 innings at a 7 ERA and Kyle Tucker misses half the year? That’s exactly what they get credit for.

Scores in both are calculated as the average of how different each players’ eventual rank was from where they were on the list, and then added up. I dub this the error of each rank. There’s two parts incorporated into the average: the sum of the absolute value of the errors, and the sum of the square of the differences to make the large errors more impactful. I also include how well people did in the players that were included in all lists, as opposed to players that weren’t (defined as “common” or “different” players), but that’ll be skimmed over here.

Lastly, the lists are ranked in each section by Z-Score, which describes the amount of standard deviations the list did better (or worse) than the average. This gives some contextualization to the raw scores, which otherwise would be arbitrary large numbers. I will attach the sheet at the end to mess with if you’d like, so you can play around with all sorts of variables, like the qualifier thresholds for the prorated section, the samples the players’ WARs are prorated to, and the type of WAR used. For this article, it’ll all be with the settings described above, which are the same as last year’s. No finagling here!

Summary of Other Lists

This year was much tougher to predict than last year, causing only two man-made lists to finish above average: CBS and PitcherList. Their lists stood out for omitting common pitfalls like first basemen Yandy Diaz, Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt, but most of all for properly assessing Adolis Garcia, the most damning mistake of the year. His below-replacement-level performance in a whopping 637 PA made him the distinguishing factor between a below and above average performance.

ATC lived up to its hype with the razor-sharp inclusion of NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, a player not included in any of the twelve “man-made” lists, and the exclusion of Adolis Garcia, mentioned above. It certainly had mistakes, like Jose Altuve at 11th, Kevin Gausman at 17th and Bo Bichette at 41st, but it fully earned its rating as the top projection system. In the end, it finished 1st in the prorated section, and 2nd in the total section.

The more negative the Z-Score the better (paradoxically). ATC proves the aggregated model’s dominance over the human race, while I proved my superiority over the man who shares my name, Ben Verlander.

In terms of other strong individuals, Foolish and Wilytics also did exceptionally well given the general landscape. They finished just below average, which is a lot better than some of the writers of this article can claim. The inclusion of William Contreras was a particularly sharp pick which I had briefly considered, but clearly not for long or deep enough. Four lists found the resolve to put Vlad Guerrero after two disappointing seasons, including a prophetic 28th place from Pesky. Marc placed Ketel Marte 33rd, an aggressive ranking for sure, but one that paid massive dividends. In other news, Ben Verlander placed his brother 35th - the only inclusion he had in any list - and he proceeded to post a 5.48 ERA and -0.3 rWAR in half a season of play. Oops!

Unlike last year, the consensus rankings had mediocre results, which is understandable given the performance of the community at large. It walked into every trap imaginable: Kevin Gausman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Luis Robert, Bo Bichette. While individual lists can dodge some of them usually, the consensus goes straight into all of them.

Reviewing my list

Last year, I chose to not celebrate my success too much, because I knew a couple of bad picks could easily turn my fortune around. This year proved that, with Bobby Miller’s disaster of a season completely destroying my chances to perform well. While I wouldn’t include him today with my more concrete way of analyzing pitching, it’s worth noting the absurdity that caused the train wreck of his year. As a recap: after looking terrible in his minor league starts while recovering from shoulder inflammation, he was rushed into big-league games out of necessity and got predictably crushed. Then, after being demoted to figure things out, he was forced into promotion again from lack of depth (based on the Dodgers’ offseason, that won’t be happening again…) despite not really fixing anything. His command was abysmal, his slider was abandoned, and until the last few starts, never matched the typical 4-seam velocity of his pre-inflamed self. I don't think Miller will be bad long-term, but that’s what makes this whole setup so brutal. One pick can cost you.

Bobby Miller wasn’t the only unique starter pick I had though. Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow both performed very well, and Tarik Skubal was elite. ATC and I were the only listmakers with the distinction of containing a Cy Young winner, and ATC has both! That’s why they’re the best in the business. As a result, I actually posted the 3rd-best marks in the prorated category, the category that I always emphasize as my priority. Nonetheless, it’s only by an extremely fine margin, and a below-average performance in the section overall.

In terms of other successes, I did well on back-to-back high-ranked shortstops - I was higher on Bobby Witt than anyone and was third-lowest on Seager, who regressed towards career norms. I was one of two people to place Freddie outside the top 10, and even my pessimism didn’t prepare me for the amount he regressed in the year. While he likely will return to my top 50, it won’t be in the top 25. My continued doubt of Trea Turner’s abilities paid dividends, and my placement of Dansby Swanson was spot on, despite severe regression offensively. My exclusion of Kevin Gausman was surprisingly contrarian, with two-thirds of lists choosing to include him, but the lessons I learned from ranking Carlos Rodon so highly two years ago paid off. I do learn from these things!

My late inclusion of Aaron Nola also turned out well, despite him being only on three lists, and Altuve predictably was a borderline top-50 player with big regression in process in his stellar 2023 half-season. Unfortunately, it will likely be the last inclusion for both of them on any of my lists with their current career trajectories. In another bit of good news, if one turns to rWAR for hitters rather than fWAR, I finish nearly a standard deviation above-average in both categories! If only.

Contrarian Scores

Last year, I looked at “contrarian scores,” which determined the total deviation each list had from the average amongst the players represented on all of them. This year, 25 players were on all 12 lists, and the results called into question some of the hypotheses I had about risk tolerance. I believed that YouTubers were less willing to deviate from the norm, due to potential blowback, while the networks ran especially controversial lists for engagement on X, The Everything App™. This year, the most controversial lists were two of the strongest, CBS and PitcherList, which may have helped them perform so well. FoolishBaseball and Marc ranked below-average in the metric once again, but they were more contrarian amongst those common players than MLB Network, or even myself. The least controversial were Wilytics and Robbie Hyde, two new creators to release top 50s, perhaps keeping my theory alive.

As I mentioned last year, the problem with the contrarian metric above is that the unique, 1-of-1 picks someone makes may be more representative of how much of a “hot take” your list is than where you happen to place the obvious guys. Subsequently, I made it my mission to capture that missing element, and I was able to cook something up. The metric is the product of how many times each player on someone’s list appears overall, excluding the 25 shared amongst all. For easier numbers, I also take the natural log of the gigantic final result. The most unique lists will have a lower score because the players on their lists will be featured fewer times overall, which is contrary to the earlier metric, which gets larger as the list gets more unique.

The top row includes the scores of the 25 shared players, with the corresponding rank beneath. The new stat is in the third row, with the ranks in the fourth. The scales are completely different for the two metrics and go in opposite directions, so they shouldn’t be compared. In both cases, the most contrarian list is rank 1, and the least contrarian is rank 12.

The results are interesting. CBS shows the widest breadth of picks, after the largest difference in the 25 common players prior. I finished with the 4th-highest score, and MLB Network and ESPN are relatively underwhelming for their hot-take persona. The bottom three, and four of the bottom five, scores come from the YouTube scene, although so do two of the top three.

Aggression with Young Players

Most people like to be apprehensive when ranking younger players, citing their volatility. Using the past two years’ results, I wanted to test how different the error in ranking players considered “young” was to ones considered “old” or “established.” I marked the young players as those aged 27 or below, and the rest of the players as old. I created a scatterplot with the consensus rank on the x-axis and the difference between the player’s total WAR rank and their consensus rank (“Total Diff”) on the y-axis.

I’ve intentionally left out the labels, because it demonstrates how similar they are. One might be able to guess that the blue points are the players 27 or younger, given there’s less of them, but there’s nothing inherently easier about predicting more tenured players. The various outliers are injury-related, other than the red point around a difference of 1200, which is Adolis Garcia. I also tried only checking the players included on more than three-fourths of lists, but there was no observable difference.

Only players age 27 or below overperformed community expectations in 2024

Looking at the precise performance of the data between the two groups, the odds of a pick being “close” (less than a 100 rank difference) is 12% higher in the prorated group, being “relatively close” (<200 ranks) is about even, and the odds of not making a terrible mistake (<500) is 3% greater for the old players. The only difference that appears close to significant is the 100 rank one, where the young group is far better off than the older ones. The correlation between age and total WAR rank error is 0.10, which indicates virtually no relationship. If there was one, though, it’s far more likely to be positive than negative (i.e., the older a player is, the more likely that you will overrate them). This goes entirely against the theory that the “kids” should be treated with “kid gloves”; if anything, they seem to be placed too low. In fact, the only players to be underrated by the community were 27 or younger, and there were eight of them.

Both years find the ranking of young players to be spot on far more often than for older players, with less and less of a difference as you widen the scope.

The trend is even starker using last year’s data. While older players did overperform the consensus rank more often than the younger players, in part because of a more predictable season for ranking, the predictions for young players still were consistently more accurate. I imagine there is quite a bit of noise here, and there’s also some selection bias at play from people only picking the safest young players. But that’s part of the issue as well - people view placing a 35-year-old as a safer option than a 23-year-old, but this doesn’t seem to be true at all. Again, I find the correlation between age and total diff for the year 2023 to be 0.10, indicating an insignificant, albeit positive relationship. If anything, people are overconfident about older players maintaining form. Given the widespread belief in Nolan Arenado entering 2024, and even still in 2025, I suspect that’s correct.

There were less outliers in 2023 with a more predictable year of play.

Every year, I lean more and more towards aggressively ranking young players. Player development methods continue to get more advanced, and young players seem to be more major-league ready, and adaptable, than ever. I plan to continue that trend, which this section seems to support. Mistakes like Bobby Miller will pop up as a result, but even the consensus #1 Ronald Acuna completely flopped. That’s how it goes.

Conclusion

Next year, I’m keeping the same approach: focus on prorated performance, while being aggressive with rankings to adjust for the preconceived bias of waiting for a breakout to be certain. The next article will be the first in a series I want to try, “SPs to Watch,” where I look at pitchers I feel are underrated as we approach the 2025 season. The focus of the series is to be brief and frequent, rather than my typical rambling and rare. The first half of my top 50 players of 2025 will be posted shortly thereafter. I hope you’re looking forward to it, because I am!

As promised, here is the sheet if you’d like to peruse it yourself. Thanks for reading!

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Sources

BaseballReference (for rWAR data)

FanGraphs (for fWAR data)

BaseballProspectus (for WARP data)

All list makers. Their links are included in the ranker introduction sections.