But we’re entering a new era where an entirely different source of demand is beginning to emerge: space.

For decades, space exploration was little more than a government funded science project. Today, it is rapidly becoming an industry. Private companies are launching satellites, building reusable rockets, planning lunar infrastructure, and openly discussing asteroid mining. Whether you think those ambitions are five years away or fifty years away is irrelevant. Markets discount the future long before it arrives.

That’s why I keep coming back to commodities.

The first chart below is copper, and it continues to trend higher over time.

Copper isn’t just an electrification story anymore. It is the metal of infrastructure. Every satellite, launch facility, solar array, robotic system, power transmission network, and future space habitat requires enormous amounts of copper. Before we can mine resources in space, we first need to build the infrastructure that gets us there.

In other words, a space economy is bullish for copper long before the first asteroid is ever mined.

The market appears to understand this. Copper continues to trend higher as demand expectations expand beyond traditional construction and manufacturing. Price is confirming what the headlines are only beginning to discuss.

The second chart is one I’ve highlighted repeatedly: Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF ($REMX).

Notice how it continues to consolidate just beneath major resistance near the 2022 highs.

This chart matters because many of the metals that make modern technology possible are concentrated in this basket. Rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium are critical for advanced magnets, electric motors, robotics, satellites, defense systems, and future aerospace applications.

If copper is the wiring of the future, rare earths are the nervous system.

And here’s the interesting part.

When most people think about space mining, they imagine gold, silver, or platinum-rich asteroids floating through space waiting to be harvested. Those metals may eventually become important. But the first winners will likely be the companies producing the materials needed to build the infrastructure that makes space mining possible in the first place.

Before humanity mines an asteroid, it must build rockets.

Before it builds rockets, it needs metals.

Lots of metals.

The commodity supercycle has never been about one trade. It has always been about identifying where the next wave of demand is likely to emerge before everyone else sees it.

Today, we have artificial intelligence driving power demand, electrification driving copper demand, energy security driving resource investment, and now the early foundations of a space economy beginning to take shape.

The common denominator in all of these themes is the same.

Commodities.

The future may be in the stars, but the path to get there still runs through copper mines, rare earth deposits, energy infrastructure, and strategic metals. That’s why these charts matter.

And that’s why we’re paying attention.

Follow the trends. Manage the risk. Let price do the talking.

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It was stagflation.

Now the European Central Bank is effectively telling us the same thing.

Look at the chart.

Just six months ago, the ECB expected inflation to be 1.9% in 2026. By March, that estimate jumped to 2.6%. Now they’re forecasting 3.0%.

At the …

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Not where the headlines say it should be flowing.

Not where economists think it should be flowing.

Where it’s actually flowing.

This morning’s bounce scan turned up something interesting.

The strongest groups off recent lows weren’t defensive sectors. They weren’t utilities. They weren’t consumer staples.

Instead, we found strength in:

• Home Construction

• Biotechnology

• Regional Banks

• Community Banks

• Insurance

• Health Care

That’s not typically what you see if the market is preparing for a major bear market.

Follow the Leadership

Look at the scan.

Homebuilders showed up multiple times. Both ITB and XHB made the list.

Banks showed up through KRE, KBE, and QABA.

Biotechnology showed up through XBI, IBB, and BBP.

These are economically sensitive groups.

Homebuilders don’t usually lead when investors expect a recession.

Regional banks don’t usually strengthen when financial conditions are deteriorating.

Biotech isn’t typically where investors hide when they are preparing for a major risk-off event.

That’s why this scan caught my attention.

The market continues to tell a different story than many investors want to believe.

Could that change?

Of course.

But right now the evidence suggests capital is still rotating into areas associated with economic growth rather than economic contraction.

The June Problem

Now before everyone gets too excited, let’s add some context.

It’s June.

And June has not been kind to stocks historically.

Looking at the seasonality chart, June has been the weakest month for the S&P 500 since 2000. Only 46% of June periods have finished positive, making it one of the most challenging seasonal windows of the year.

That’s important.

Seasonality isn’t destiny.

But it provides context.

This is one of those periods where the market should be struggling.

That’s why I’m paying attention.

If these groups continue to hold up despite the seasonal headwinds, that’s another piece of evidence suggesting the underlying trend remains healthy.

Strong markets tend to ignore weak seasonal periods.

Weak markets tend to ignore strong seasonal periods.

The ability to resist historical weakness is often more important than the seasonal tendency itself.

What We’re Watching

For now, I’m less interested in predicting and more interested in observing.

Can banks continue to improve?

Can homebuilders maintain leadership?

Can biotech continue attracting capital?

If the answer is yes, it becomes increasingly difficult to make a bearish argument based solely on sentiment or headlines.

The market is far from perfect.

But it also isn’t behaving like a market preparing for collapse.

That’s what today’s scans are telling us.

And until the evidence changes, that’s the message I’m listening to.

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Most people remember the famous line:

“You've got to know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run.”

But the older I get, the more I realize the song isn’t really about gambling.

It’s about patience.

It’s about discipline.

It’s about understanding that not every hand is worth playing.

And right now, that’s a lesson a lot of traders need to hear.

We’re coming off a drawdown. Some positions have been stopped out. A few trades didn’t work. That’s part of the game.

Yet every time this happens, I start getting the same questions:

“What’s the next trade?”

“What should I buy?”

“How do I make it back?”

What people are really asking is:

“How do I get back to my equity high as fast as possible?”

That’s the wrong question.

In fact, it might be the most dangerous question a trader can ask.

Because when you become emotionally attached to making your money back immediately, you stop thinking like a trader and start thinking like a gambler.

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The Most Dangerous Place a Trader Can Be

In poker they have a term for this.

It’s called tilt.

Tilt happens when a player loses a hand and becomes emotional. Instead of continuing to play their strategy, they start trying to force outcomes.

They bet too much.

They chase bad hands.

They abandon their edge.

They stop making rational decisions.

They start making emotional ones.

Most traders have experienced tilt whether they realize it or not.

A few losing trades hit.

A drawdown starts.

Confidence drops.

Then suddenly every chart looks like an opportunity.

Every setup looks tradable.

Every move feels like the one that will make everything right again.

That’s when accounts get destroyed.

Not during the drawdown itself.

During the emotional response to the drawdown.

The irony is that the drawdown usually isn’t what causes traders to fail.

Their reaction to the drawdown is.

Do the Opposite of Most Traders

One thing I’ve learned over the years is that most traders fail.

The exact percentage doesn’t matter.

Maybe it’s 80%.

Maybe it’s 90%.

Maybe it’s higher.

The point is that the majority of market participants lose money.

The failure rate becomes even higher the shorter the timeframe.

The shorter you trade, the more emotional decisions tend to matter.

The longer your timeframe becomes, the more patience starts to matter.

Whenever I’m uncertain about what to do, I ask myself a simple question:

“What is the average trader doing right now?”

Then I try to do the opposite.

The average trader panics during drawdowns.

The average trader starts forcing trades.

The average trader increases risk after taking losses.

The average trader abandons their process because they’re frustrated.

The average trader becomes obsessed with getting back to breakeven.

I don’t want to be average. The average trader loses money.

Neither should you.

Drawdowns Are Not a Bug

One of the most important lessons trend following taught me is that drawdowns are not evidence that something is broken.

They’re evidence that you’re participating.

Every meaningful trading strategy experiences drawdowns.

Every great trader experiences drawdowns.

Every long term track record contains periods where nothing seems to work.

The mistake most investors make is treating drawdowns like a verdict.

They’re not.

They’re simply part of the process.

I’ve always liked how Winton Capital described drawdowns. They pointed out that investors often treat maximum drawdown like a scarlet letter that follows a manager forever, even though drawdowns are often completely normal and consistent with the strategy itself.

A drawdown doesn’t automatically tell you anything is wrong.

The real question is whether you’re following your process.

Did you obey your rules?

Did you manage risk properly?

Did you take the trades your system told you to take?

If the answer is yes, then the drawdown is simply part of doing business.

Patience Is a Position

The reality is that there aren’t many great trades setting up right now.

I know that’s frustrating.

I know people want action.

I know people want to make back every dollar immediately.

But the market doesn’t care.

Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

Sometimes the highest probability position is cash.

Sometimes the smartest thing you can do is sit quietly and wait.

That’s not weakness.

That’s professionalism.

The best traders I’ve ever met all shared one characteristic:

They could wait.

They understood that opportunities come in waves.

They knew they didn’t have to swing at every pitch.

And they understood something most people never learn:

You don’t get paid for activity.

You get paid for being right.

Thousands of years before there were digital stock markets, philosophers understood this.

Lao Tzu wrote:

“Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.”

The market will provide another opportunity.

It always does.

The question is whether you’ll still have the capital, discipline, and emotional stability to take advantage of it when it arrives.

So don’t revenge trade.

Don’t go on tilt.

Don’t force a hand that isn’t there.

And remember the wisdom hidden inside an old Kenny Rogers song:

Sometimes the most profitable thing you can do is know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, and know when to simply sit there and wait for the next hand.

For now, we will be patient.

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Just look at the news flow over the last few days.

On Friday, oil sold off because traders believed tensions between the United States and Iran might cool down and that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen without major disruption.

Then over the weekend, Iran launched missile strikes against Israel.

Oil rallied.

Then headlines suggested Iran was ending its current attacks.

Oil gave back much of the move.

Back and forth.

Bullish.

Bearish.

Bullish again.

This is exactly why I spend more time looking at charts than reading headlines.

Because despite all the noise, energy continues to hold up remarkably well.

XOP Is Holding One Of The Most Important Breakouts In The Market

Look at the XOP chart.

Oil and gas exploration companies spent nearly four years fighting with resistance around the 160 level. Every rally stalled. Every breakout attempt failed.

Until now.

Today, XOP remains above that breakout zone despite a constant barrage of geopolitical headlines and daily volatility in crude oil prices.

That’s important.

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“Jason, what are you watching to know when this thing finally breaks?”

The answer isn’t one indicator.

It isn’t one headline.

And it definitely isn’t one economist on television.

Markets leave clues before they roll over. Our job is to pay attention to those clues.

Right now there are four things at the top of my list.

The Market Continues to Ignore Seasonal Weakness

Let’s start with seasonality.

Historically, this is supposed to be a weaker period for stocks. The old saying “Sell in May and Go Away” exists for a reason. When you look at the long term Presidential Cycle Composite, the market often struggles through parts of the summer before finding its footing later in the year.

That’s not what’s happening.

Instead, stocks continue pushing higher.

This is one of my favorite ways to evaluate the strength of a trend. I don’t just look at whether an asset follows its seasonal pattern. I pay attention when it refuses to.

Strong markets often ignore weak seasonal periods.

Weak markets often ignore strong seasonal periods.

If stocks continue advancing through June despite a seasonal backdrop that should be creating headwinds, that’s evidence that the underlying demand remains healthy. It tells us buyers are willing to step in even when history says they shouldn’t.

That’s not bearish.

That’s strength.

Bitcoin Is Starting to Flash a Warning

The second chart on my radar is Bitcoin.

For months Bitcoin has been consolidating near the highs. Now we’re seeing it start to break down from that range.

Whether you’re a crypto investor or not, Bitcoin matters because it acts as a liquidity thermometer.

When liquidity is abundant and investors are willing to embrace risk, Bitcoin tends to lead.

When liquidity dries up, Bitcoin often struggles first.

That’s why this chart deserves attention.

One week doesn’t matter.

But if Bitcoin continues breaking down from this range and starts making lower highs and lower lows, it would suggest money is becoming less willing to flow into speculative assets.

That doesn’t automatically mean stocks crash.

It does mean risk appetite is deteriorating.

Semiconductors Need to Hold Up

Next is SMH.

The semiconductor ETF is down roughly 6% today after an incredible run that saw it rally nearly 60% in just a few months.

Honestly?

That doesn’t bother me.

Big leaders correct.

That’s normal.

What matters is what happens next.

Semiconductors remain one of the most important leadership groups in the entire market. AI, cloud infrastructure, data centers, and technology spending all flow through this space.

If SMH stabilizes and resumes higher, the bull market remains intact.

If it continues to break down week after week, leadership is starting to disappear.

And when leadership disappears, bull markets get into trouble.

KRE Is the Most Important Chart

The final chart is the one I care about most.

Regional banks.

KRE.

Regional banks are the plumbing of the financial system. They provide credit, support lending activity, and help drive economic growth.

When banks are healthy, markets tend to be healthy.

When banks struggle, problems eventually show up elsewhere.

The chart has improved dramatically over the last year, but we’re approaching an important moment.

If KRE rolls over and forms a lower high, that’s going to get my attention very quickly.

A failed breakout in regional banks would suggest financial conditions are tightening and that risk assets may have a much harder time moving higher.

For me, this is the biggest canary in the coal mine.

The bottom line?

I don’t know when the bubble will pop.

Nobody does.

But if Bitcoin keeps breaking down, semiconductors lose leadership, and regional banks roll over, we’ll have our answer.

Until then, the market continues to do something very simple:

It keeps going up.

And that’s evidence I can’t ignore.

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The money was supposed to stay in the United States. The Magnificent Seven were supposed to keep carrying the market. Every rally was supposed to belong to Silicon Valley.

But markets don’t care about stories.

They care about trends.

And the trend is starting to change.

If you look at the Europe Leadership Dashboard, something jumps off the page immediately. The strongest countries aren’t breaking down. They’re consolidating near highs and preparing for another leg higher.

The Netherlands is up 18% year to date.

Poland is up nearly 15%.

Greece is up 11%.

Finland is up almost 20%.

And sitting right near the top of the list is one of our holdings:

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Money.

Status.

Followers.

Titles.

The size of their house.

The size of their portfolio.

The problem is that my 8 year old self doesn’t care about any of that.

When I was 8 years old, I wasn’t thinking about net worth. I wasn’t wondering how much money I would have in the bank or whether people would know my name.

I wanted adventure.

I wanted freedom.

I wanted to ride my bike until the streetlights came on. I wanted to explore places I wasn’t supposed to be. I wanted to do things that scared me. I wanted to become the kind of person who could overcome hard things.

Looking back, I think that kid had life figured out better than most adults.

Somewhere along the way, we start measuring ourselves with the wrong scorecard.

We compare ourselves to people we don’t know.

We chase goals because society tells us they matter.

We convince ourselves that happiness is waiting on the other side of a bigger number.

A bigger account.

A bigger business.

A bigger paycheck.

The funny thing is that every time you hit one of those numbers, another one appears.

The finish line keeps moving.

I’ve spent enough time around successful people like myself to know that money solves some problems, but it doesn’t solve the important ones.

It doesn’t make you courageous.

It doesn’t make you honest.

It doesn’t make you a good husband, father, friend, or human being.

As I’ve gotten older, I’ve started asking myself a different question.

Would my 8 year old self be proud of me?

Not impressed.

Proud.

There’s a huge difference.

That kid wouldn’t care about my returns this year.

He wouldn’t care about my net worth.

He wouldn’t care how many subscribers I have or how many people follow me online.

He would want to know if I got back up when life knocked me down.

He would want to know if I stayed clean when it would have been easier not to.

He would want to know if I kept chasing my dreams when other people thought I was crazy.

He would want to know if I had the courage to be myself instead of becoming who everyone else wanted me to be.

The older I get, the more I believe that’s the only scorecard that matters.

Because one day none of us will care about the money.

The market won’t remember our best trade.

Nobody will remember how many followers we had.

What will matter is whether we lived with courage, whether we loved the people around us, and whether we became the person we were capable of becoming.

My 8 year old self doesn’t care about my net worth.

He cares whether I lived a life worth being proud of.

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A ceasefire is holding.

A deal is close.

Hormuz is about to reopen.

Peace is right around the corner.

The media runs with it. Politicians hold press conferences. Analysts start calculating how much lower oil should go if everything works out.

Then reality shows up.

This week President Trump said he expects a broader agreement with Iran over the next week and suggested progress is being made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On the surface, that sounds bullish for global stability and bearish for energy prices.

The problem is that Iran appears to disagree.

Iranian state media quickly pushed back, saying communications with the United States have effectively stalled and that negotiations surrounding a memorandum of understanding have gone nowhere for days. At the same time, reports continue to emerge from Lebanon showing that despite the headlines, violence has not disappeared. Rockets are still being fired. Airstrikes are still occurring. Soldiers and civilians are still getting hurt.

In other words, the headlines are telling us one story.

The market is telling us another.

Watch What Oil Is Doing, Not What Politicians Are Saying

The chart above is what matters.

For nearly four years crude oil has been fighting with the same resistance zone around $93. Every major rally eventually stalled at that level. Every breakout attempt failed and sent prices lower.

Markets remember important levels. Traders remember them too.

That is why this area matters so much.

What catches my attention is not that oil rallied into resistance. What catches my attention is that it broke through it and continues to hold near the breakout level despite a constant stream of supposedly bearish news.

Think about that for a moment.

If traders genuinely believed that the Middle East situation was solved, that a lasting ceasefire was around the corner, and that Hormuz would be fully reopened without issue, oil should be getting crushed.

Instead, buyers continue to show up.

Every pullback gets bought.

Every dip is met with demand.

The market has had multiple opportunities to break lower and it simply refuses to do so.

That is usually a sign that something bigger is happening beneath the surface.

The best trends often climb a wall of worry. They advance while investors spend all of their time explaining why they should not.

Energy has been doing exactly that.

Price Is the Truth Detector

One of the most important lessons I have learned over the years is that politicians can say whatever they want.

The news can report whatever it wants.

Experts can debate whatever they want.

Price gets the final vote.

Price is the ultimate truth detector.

When I look at this chart, I don’t see a market preparing for peace. I see a market that is pricing in continued uncertainty. I see a market that understands how fragile the situation remains. I see a market recognizing that one missile, one drone strike, one failed negotiation, or one escalation can completely change the outlook overnight.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important energy chokepoints on the planet. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply moves through that narrow passage. Any disruption matters. Even the threat of disruption matters.

That is why I continue to believe investors are underestimating the potential for higher energy prices.

Could we get a temporary agreement? Sure.

Could we get a few weeks of reduced tensions? Absolutely.

But those are very different things from a durable solution.

The fighting in Lebanon continues. Negotiations remain fragile. Iran and the United States are still far apart on key issues. The market knows this.

That is why crude oil is sitting near multi year highs instead of collapsing.

As traders, our job is not to predict the next headline. It is not to guess what politicians will do tomorrow.

Our job is to listen to the market.

And right now the market is speaking very clearly.

Energy remains one of the strongest trends in the world.

The breakout above $93 is one of the most important developments in the commodity complex, and until proven otherwise, I believe higher prices remain the path of least resistance.

Stay ready for volatility.

Stay focused on the trend.

Because despite all the talk of peace, the market is telling us this story is far from over.

Want to see exactly how we’re trading it?

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Why do we want exposure here?

Because energy crises rarely stay contained.

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Money market fund assets hit another all time high.

Financial media rolls out the same explanations. Investors are scared. Warren Buffett is sitting on cash. Institutions are defensive. Inflation risks remain. Geopolitical tensions are rising. The Fed is cutting rates.

This year is no different.

Money market assets have climbed above $8 trillion, and once again people are pointing at that pile of cash as proof that a bear market is right around the corner.

I’ve heard this story for years.

Before that it was Buffett’s cash pile.

Before that it was bond fund inflows.

Before that it was some other indicator that was supposedly going to signal the end of the world.

Maybe Santa Claus is hoarding cash too. Who knows.

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“Every trade I take means nothing to me.”

The second it came out of my mouth I realized it was probably one of the truest statements I’ve ever made about my approach to markets.

Now before you think I’ve completely lost my mind, hear me out.

Most people think successful traders care deeply about every position they take. They obsess over it. They watch every tick. They defend it on social media. They read every article that confirms their opinion. They spend all day hoping they’re right.

That’s exactly why most people never make any money.

The phrase “don’t marry your trades” exists for a reason. The second you fall in love with a position, you lose the ability to see it objectively. You stop looking at what the market is actually doing and start looking for reasons why you should stay in the trade.

We’ve all seen it.

Someone buys a stock. The stock starts going down. Instead of admitting they might be wrong, they become an unpaid spokesperson for the company. Suddenly they’re reading earnings reports, listening to podcasts, and arguing with strangers online about why everyone else is missing the opportunity.

The trade becomes part of their identity.

That’s where the trouble starts.

I don’t love gold miners.

I don’t love energy stocks.

I don’t love copper.

I don’t love bitcoin.

I certainly don’t love bonds.

I love following a process.

The individual trade is just a tool.

I play drums, I have cymbals that I think sound incredible. They helped me create music. But I wasn’t emotionally attached to the cymbal itself. It was simply a tool that helped me do what I was trying to do.

Trading is the same thing.

A gold miner might make money.

It might lose money.

Either way, it is simply a vehicle that allows me to execute a strategy.

Nothing more.

Nothing less.

The Secret Is Building Your Life So You Don’t Need Any One Trade

I think one of the biggest reasons traders become emotionally attached to positions is because they need them to work.

That’s a terrible place to operate from.

Before I ever worry about a trade, I want to know that my life is stable.

Do you have actual savings?

Not your brokerage account.

Not your crypto account.

Not your retirement account.

Cash.

Money sitting there that gives you breathing room.

Good.

Now you’re not trading from a place of fear.

As time goes on, build other buckets.

Maybe you own real estate.

Maybe you own physical gold.

Maybe you have retirement accounts.

Maybe you have multiple trading accounts with different objectives.

The goal is simple. No single position should determine whether your future is bright or dark.

When you build your life that way, something interesting happens.

You stop needing trades to work.

And that’s when you become dangerous.

Because now all you have to do is execute.

Signal appears? Take it.

Stop gets hit? Sell it.

New opportunity shows up? Buy it.

No drama.

No emotional breakdowns.

No attachment.

Just execution.

Why Losing Is Actually Winning

One of the biggest lies in this industry is the obsession with win rates.

People brag about winning 80%, 90%, even 95% of the time.

Who gives a shit?

If you make 1% on nine trades and lose 10% on the tenth trade, you were right almost every time and still lost money.

Now flip it around.

Lose 1% on nine trades and make 10% on one trade.

You were wrong most of the time and still came out ahead.

That’s positive expectancy.

That’s trend following.

That’s how many of the greatest traders in history operated.

The goal isn’t to be right.

The goal is to make money.

Those are two completely different things.

Most trades aren’t supposed to be life changing. Most trades are simply the cost of doing business. Small gains. Small losses. Lots of noise.

Then every once in a while a monster shows up.

A gold miner doubles.

A commodity stock triples.

Bitcoin catches fire.

An entire sector enters a new bull market.

Those few outliers pay for every small loss that came before them.

That’s why I don’t care about individual trades.

The trade isn’t the game.

The process is the game.

After more than a decade of outperforming the S&P 500, that’s probably the biggest lesson I’ve learned.

You can’t control the market.

You can’t control earnings.

You can’t control geopolitics.

You can’t control what some central banker says tomorrow morning.

You can only control your process.

It’s the same lesson Tyler Durden was trying to teach in Fight Club.

You have to stop trying to control everything.

You have to let go.

Do the work.

Build the system.

Manage the risk.

Take the signal.

Then get out of the way.

The market will do whatever it wants to do.

And that’s exactly why every trade I take means nothing to me.

The process means everything.

Most people spend their time watching the news.

We spend our time finding trends.

If you want access to every trade alert, every portfolio update, and the exact process we use to navigate commodities, stocks, bonds, currencies, and crypto, join us at Against All Odds Research.

We’re not trying to predict the future. We’re following the money and managing risk.

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The stock is breaking out to new all time highs after spending several years building a massive base. As trend followers, this is exactly the type of setup we want to own. New highs are often where the biggest winners begin, not where they end.

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It’s about endurance.

The only real rule I know about being good at anything is simple:

Don’t quit.
Don’t give in.

That was the first rule I learned riding BMX as a kid. Unless you’re dead and buried, you keep going. You break a leg? Heal it up and get the fuck back out there. You almost die? Cool. But you didn’t. So stop acting like the story is over.

The world will misunderstand you if you want to be great. That’s part of the deal. Most people only understand goals that fit inside their own limitations.

I shared an old clip from a BMX page the other day and my friend said.

I was still a teenager. People think I’m intense now. Man… you should have met me 20 years ago.

One of the crashes 12 seconds into the clip broke my nose. I showed up to the contest with a broken foot I could barely walk on. Then I broke my pinky during practice. Then I smashed my face and ended up sitting on the deck of the ramp bleeding everywhere trying to pop my broken nose back into place so I could breathe again.

The announcer started telling me I could stop.

I looked at him and said:

“I’ll stop when I’m dead.”

Extreme? Sure.
But that mindset matters.

Recovery teaches the same thing.

For alcoholics:
Don’t drink no matter what.

For addicts:
Don’t use no matter what.

Mother dies? Don’t use.
Divorce? Don’t use.
Cancer? Don’t use.

Simple rules save lives because they remove negotiation. You have to stick to your plan.

Trading is the same way.

People overcomplicate it because they want certainty. They want control. They want a way to avoid pain.

But the truth is simple:

STICK TO YOUR TRADING PLAN NO MATTER WHAT.

If you decided that you were buying on ______ signal and selling on _______ signal… Then by all means buy and sell on those signals and do not let anything shake that conviction

That’s it.

You’ll lose money sometimes.
You’ll doubt yourself.
You’ll look stupid.
People will laugh at you while you’re early and call you lucky when you’re right.

None of that matters.

The people who win are usually just the people who stayed in the fight long enough to become dangerous.

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Every podcast. Every finance account. Every guy with a microphone and a copy of The Big Short on his bookshelf is screaming that this is the end.

One notable example was Andrew Ross Sorkin, who resurfaced recently after a 2025 60 Minutes clip started making the rounds again. In the interview, he compared today’s AI-fueled rally and exploding debt levels to the speculation before the 1929 crash. He called this market a “sugar rush” driven by leverage and loose regulation.

And look… could a crash happen someday? Of course.

A crash can always happen.

But traders get destroyed when they start positioning for imaginary crashes while the market keeps making new highs.

The Nasdaq 100 futures just pushed toward 30,000. The S&P 500 has continued grinding higher. Meanwhile, most of the people screaming “collapse” have been fighting the tape for months and possibly years.

That’s why I keep saying the same thing over and over again:

Price tells us what we need to know.

Not headlines.
Not fear.
Not political narratives.
Not Twitter economists pretending to be Michael Burry.

As traders, we focus on what we can control.

Risk management above all else.

But after risk management, the next thing that matters is simple:

Find where strength LIVES.

And right now, strength lives in energy.

Look at the YTD futures performance chart.

Heating oil is up nearly 170%. Brent crude, WTI, gasoline, natural gas… all near the top of the leaderboard. While everyone obsesses over recession headlines and AI valuations, the commodity complex continues to quietly outperform almost everything.

That is not what market crashes usually look like.

Then look at the Hard Asset Leadership Model.

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In 2023 I was pounding the table that gold was getting ready to move before almost anyone cared. Most people thought gold was dead money. They laughed at precious metals while the setup was sitting right in front of them.

Then 2024 came and I would not shut the fuck up about the incoming trend in precious metals.

Gold miners.
Silver.
Junior miners.
Exploration stocks.

And they exploded higher from throughout 2024 into early 2026.

Then in 2025 we started talking about the dollar. Everyone believed the dollar would stay strong forever while international markets kept underperforming. We said the exact opposite. We talked about how a falling dollar would unleash emerging markets and commodity producing countries.

And that’s exactly what happened.

Then came energy.

At the end of 2025 we started seeing refiners and crack spreads quietly start to turn higher. The market wasn’t paying attention yet, but the internals were changing. So we leaned into energy aggressively in early 2026.

Now oil is sitting around $100.

We’ve been long rare earths, lithium, coal stocks, shipping stocks, uranium miners and pretty much every area tied to real assets and global scarcity.

Why?

Because commodity cycles move in stages.

And that brings us to the final stage.

Gold Starts the Move. Copper Leads. Oil Finishes It.

Gold tends to move first because it reacts to monetary instability before the economy feels it.

Then copper starts moving because industrial demand and inflation pressures begin spreading through the system.

Oil usually comes last because energy is the final tax on the economy. Once energy starts moving aggressively, inflation pressure spreads into everything.

That’s where we are now.

And there is only one major trade left in this cycle:

The bond market.

Inflation Is Not Going Away

Everyone keeps pretending inflation is dead.

It’s not.

Even with all the changes made to government CPI calculations over the years, the direction of inflation is still obvious. The rate of change is turning higher again, not lower.

Globally, inflation pressures are building.

Globally, yields are rising.

And the market keeps acting shocked every single time commodities continue higher.

This looks far more like a rolling inflation cycle than the clean disinflationary environment people keep hoping for.

Wave after wave.

That’s how inflation actually works historically.

Not in straight lines.

The Next Big Move Is Bonds Breaking Lower

Everyone thought gold wouldn’t move.

Everyone thought silver wouldn’t move.

Everyone thought copper wouldn’t move.

Everyone thought oil couldn’t get back near $100.

Now everyone thinks yields can’t go higher.

That’s usually how these cycles work. The market spends most of its time making the largest amount of people uncomfortable.

And right now the uncomfortable trade is staying short bonds.

Look at TLT.

The Bollinger Band width is collapsing to extremely low levels while price compresses near the lows of a massive multi year downtrend.

That tells you one thing:

A trend expansion is coming.

Could bonds bounce first? Sure.

Could there be violent countertrend rallies? Absolutely.

I don’t give a shit about that.

I care about the primary trend.

That’s where the real money gets made.

And the primary trend still says yields are going higher and bonds are going lower.

One last time:

Stay short the bond market.

If you want to see every position we’re holding across commodities, miners, energy, rare earths, shipping, uranium, and the bond market, along with the exact risk management process behind it. Become a premium member of AAO Research.

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We’ve spent years positioning for this commodity supercycle before the crowd believed it was possible.

Now the final stage is beginning.

Join us before the next major move in global yields and the bond market unfolds.

Against All Odds Research

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That story is starting to crack.

Look at the chart above. Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries have now fallen to the lowest level since 2008. That is not some random headline. That is a structural shift happening underneath the global financial system.

China has been steadily unloading Treasuries for years, and now other foreign governments are starting to do the same. Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, has also been cutting exposure. Overall foreign Treasury holdings dropped sharply in a single month.

That matters more than most people understand.

For decades the system worked like this:

America consumed.
Foreign countries produced goods.
They recycled those dollars back into U.S. Treasuries.
That kept yields suppressed and allowed the United States to finance massive deficits without blowing up borrowing costs.

But confidence is what keeps that machine alive.

Confidence in the dollar.
Confidence in the Fed.
Confidence that U.S. debt is still the safest place in the world to store capital.

The bond market has already been warning us that something is wrong. Long term yields keep grinding higher globally while inflation pressures refuse to disappear. Oil remains elevated. Commodity markets continue tightening. Fiscal spending keeps exploding.

Now layer weakening foreign demand for Treasuries on top of that.

That combination gets ugly fast.

The Treasury needs to issue enormous amounts of debt just to fund current spending. At the same time, foreign buyers are stepping away from the table. Somebody eventually has to absorb all that supply.

That usually means one thing:

Higher yields.

And higher yields ripple through everything.

Mortgages.
Corporate borrowing.
Credit cards.
Commercial real estate.
Stock valuations.
Government interest expense.

This is why I keep talking about the bond market. Most people obsess over headlines and political theater while the real story is happening underneath the surface.

Trump tweets are noise.
Biden speeches are noise.
Xi meetings are noise.

The bond market is the signal.

And right now the signal is telling us that inflation pressures are not dead and confidence in long duration government debt is weakening globally.

The scary part is that this does not happen overnight. These systems erode slowly, then suddenly everyone notices at once.

That is why we continue to focus on hard assets, commodities, energy, industrials, metals, and inflation sensitive areas of the market.

Because when global confidence in paper starts fading, money usually rotates toward things you can actually touch, move, burn, build with, or dig out of the ground.

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We’ve seen this movie before.

The headlines change every week:

“Final stages.”
“Close to a deal.”
“Finishing touches.”
“Peace imminent.”

Then a week later another missile flies across the screen and crude oil is right back where it started.

That’s why I continue to focus on price instead of emotional reactions to headlines.

Look at the crude oil chart first.

Oil broke out above the $93 resistance zone and has continued holding above it. That level rejected price multiple times over the past few years. Now we are above it and consolidating. That is not bearish price action. That is acceptance at higher prices.

Yes, crude sold off hard intraday after the Trump comments around Iran negotiations. But step back and look at the structure. The primary trend has not changed.

Meanwhile, physical oil markets continue tightening underneath the surface.

Global inventories continue drawing down.
Shipping disruptions remain a problem.
The Strait of Hormuz still matters enormously to global energy flows.
Summer demand is starting.
And global governments continue underinvesting in energy production while simultaneously demanding more power consumption from AI infrastructure, manufacturing reshoring, and electrification.

That combination is inflationary whether people like it or not.

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Now pair that with the second chart.

Global long duration yields continue rising almost everywhere.

The United States.
United Kingdom.
Japan.
Germany.
Canada.

This is not isolated to one country or one politician. This is a global inflation problem.

That’s the important takeaway.

People want to make this political because it feels easier emotionally. Bulls blame one side. Bears blame the other. But bond markets do not care about your political tribe. The bond market responds to liquidity, inflation expectations, commodity flows, and monetary conditions.

And right now global yields continue pressing higher.

That matters because rising long term yields are usually not signaling confidence in disinflation. They are signaling the opposite. Markets are demanding more compensation to hold long duration debt in an environment where inflation risks remain elevated.

Yesterday’s drop in yields was aggressive, but zoom out. The larger trend is still intact.

The market is trying to front run a clean resolution to the Middle East situation and a normalization in oil flows. Maybe that happens. Maybe it doesn’t.

But until the structure actually breaks, I’m not interested in overreacting to every headline or tweet.

That is where most traders get destroyed.

As Paul Tudor Jones said:

“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always first and foremost protecting your ass.”

That means respecting trends instead of chasing narratives.

Right now the message from the charts remains relatively simple:

• Oil is structurally strong.

• Global yields are structurally rising.

• Inflation pressures remain sticky.

• Commodity sensitive areas continue outperforming.

• Stocks are still climbing despite chaos in rates.

That last point matters.

For weeks stocks ignored higher oil and higher yields. Yesterday they finally reacted positively to falling crude prices, but the bigger picture remains unchanged. Markets still want growth. Markets still want AI. Markets still want cyclicals.

The danger comes later if yields continue rising aggressively while growth starts slowing underneath the surface.

That is when things break.

For now, this still looks more like an inflationary expansion than a deflationary collapse.

And until crude oil loses that breakout level and global yields actually reverse trend, I think betting aggressively against commodities and inflation sensitive assets is the wrong trade.

Paid subscribers: I am at a conference this week. I will get all of the reports out this week but the sheadule may be a bit off this week.

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Semiconductors continue to dominate globally.

You can see it all over the international leadership dashboard.

South Korea sits near the top of the leaderboard with a 74% YTD gain, and that matters because nearly 30% of EWY is tied directly to semiconductor exposure. Taiwan continues to show strength as well through EWT, where Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) remains the dominant holding. These are not random countries outperforming. They are tied directly to the semiconductor supply chain.

But what really stands out to me is EMXC — Emerging Markets ex-China.

That tells you something important.

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One of the themes we continue to see inside our AAO Macro Trendfinder scans is the steady rise of fertilizer and agriculture related names. Over the last few months, more and more of these stocks have started climbing the relative strength rankings while most investors remain focused on the same crowded AI and mega cap trades.

That matters.

When fertilizer stocks begin outperforming, it usually says something bigger about the environment underneath the market. It points toward persistent inflationary pressure, rising agricultural demand, and a continued shift toward hard assets and real world production.

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